Frankly speaking, the race is not as close as the pundits have been calling for. This race is going be a soft landslide to Obama. Here are my two predictions:
1.First, let’s start with 2004 electoral map where by John Kerry lost with 252 electoral votes with Bush winning with 286 electoral votes. Using this map as a benchmark, Obama will carry all John Kerry states plus IOWA, NEW MEXICO, NEVADA, COLORADO, VIRGINIA AND OHIO giving him a total of 309 electoral votes. I called this a soft landslide and the probability of this scenario happening is 85%
2.Secondly, let’s start with 2008 electoral Map where by Obama won with 365 electoral votes. Using this map as benchmark, Obama will carry all of his 2008 states MINUS FRORIDA,INDIANA, NORTH COROLINA giving him a total of 310 electoral votes:The probability of this scenario happening is 90%. NOTE: Ohio in 2008 had 20 electoral votes but has lost 2 electoral votes which means instead of 20 electoral votes, Ohio now has 18 electoral votes this election cycle.
MY CONCLUSION
Therefore, don’t lose your sleep because this race is not as close as wolf Blitzer, Chuck Todd and John King have painted to be. The reason behind their arguments of the so called “Horse race” is to increase their network ratings while looking after their commission at the same time because come Nov 7 some of them would probably be out of business. So here is my November 6 election map look like.
Electoral Map
Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 7:53 PM PT: It look like my prediction was perfect