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Ever since Richard Mourdock made his infamous comment, we have been seeing a good deal of released internal polls, but nothing from a credible, independent source.  Howey Political Report released their poll today, with good news for Democrats:

Donnelly 47
Mourdock 36

The biggest issue I have with these polls is that they don't seem to push undecideds very heavily.  That said, this post by Democratic Pollster Fred Yang mentions that Donnelly has an even larger lead in the state than Gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence.  The poll pegs that race as:

Pence 47
Gregg 40

Also, much to my chagrin, but to no one's surprise, Indiana will return to being a red state on the presidential level.

Romney 51
Obama 41

I'd like to see Obama get to within a 10 percent final margin in the state.  Early voting lines in Indianapolis have been huge, which is good news.

Regardless of the other polls in the survey, it appears that the Tea Party has been successful in replacing a reasonable Republican statesman with a Centrist Democrat at the Senate level.  Indiana is a conservative state, but it's not so conservative that an idealogue such as Mourdock can just skate by, insulting a high percentage of the population along his way.

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Comment Preferences

  •  At this point, I'll take any winning Democrat (6+ / 0-)

    for the Senate I can get.

    "Mistress of the Topaz" is now available in paperback! Link here:

    by Kimball Cross on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:59:03 AM PDT

  •  11 Points in 4 days......Call in Karl Rove.....The (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:


  •  NW Indiana (0+ / 0-)

    and the Chicago/IN suburbs should also make a difference. I still don't believe IN is as solid Red as they claim.

    If not us ... who? If not here ... where? If not now ... when?

    by RUNDOWN on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:01:52 AM PDT

  •  Encouraging that despite all the money (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    that Rove has spent on Mourdock's behalf that it doesn't seem to be having much of an effect even in a very conservative electorate.  I don't know if this poll is right but what it tells me is wherever the race was before Rove increased his involvement there has not been much change since then.

    If turnout in Indianapolis and the Chicago/IN suburbs is high then it seems that Donnelly would benefit.  If Obama is getting over 40% in Indiana and if he can creep up to 43% or 44% then Donnelly could win by around 2 to 5 points.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:10:32 AM PDT

  •  He ain't winning any progressive awards, but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I'm working my ass off trying to get Donnelly elected.

    I'm just hoping we can keep IN-2 blue though with Mullen

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:18:34 AM PDT

  •  The Teabaggers are the gift.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Berkeley Fred

    that just keeps on giving. I don't want to even think about the makeup of the Senate if they hadn't nominated a bunch pro-rapists, ex-witches, and nitwits that publicly state they can't tell the difference between Asians and Latinos.

  •  though early voting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    in Indianapolis is down from 08. we need to win this one. go JOE. and go Brendan Mullen. His opponent, Walorski, is the spawn of Bachman.

    Obama or Clinton or Biden should at least touch down in Gary or Indy or South Bend, in the next few days, for this race. Hoosiers are pissed about what happened to Lugar.

    •  I drive from Elkhart to South Bend every day (0+ / 0-)

      And Im seeing more and more signs pop up, hand painted signs mind you, with Warlorski's name and a giant X over it.

      When I've met a fence sitting I just remind them that Warloski was key in the deal that sold the Toll Road, an event that still leaves a bitter taste in Hoosier mouths...even republicans.

      --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

      by idbecrazyif on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:30:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This gives me hope for Indiana, that (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jkb246, mconvente

    notwithstanding their inability to recognize that Republicans have been selling them a bill of goods for years there are actual limits of decency, compassion and tolerance that can't be crossed.

    Further, affiant sayeth not.

    by Gary Norton on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:21:29 AM PDT

  •  If we win this... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    If we win this, and if Bob Kerrey wins in NE, we will have a very good night indeed.

    But I'm still a little nervous about WI, and I think we will probably lose ND, based on the polls I'm seeing.

  •  New to Indiana (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I just dont get how a blue collar state voes for Mitt.  Its like people want to make 12$ an hour forever.  Yes the cost of living is low, but dont people want more

    •  Its actually pretty moderate here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mconvente, jkb246

      More than it would seem, you would have have to live here for awhile to see it.

      Unfortunately many people are low information voters here, even in normally democratic strongholds like Northern IN and Northwest and either vote with trends or with feelings.

      --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

      by idbecrazyif on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:51:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tealiban has won more seats for the Dems (0+ / 0-)

    than the DSCC.

    We wouldn't have the Senate if it wasn't for these clowns. Keep 'em coming!

    A society is judged by how well it cares for those in the dawn of life, the children. By how well it cares for those in the twilight of life, the elderly. And, by how well it cares for those on the edge of life; the poor, the sick, and the disabled.

    by BobBlueMass on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:25:52 AM PDT

  •  early vote (0+ / 0-)

    Could you add some analysis about the early voting in Indiana start date versus when the event occurred?

    Early voting started on October 8, and the rape comment occurred on October 23.

    From what I am seeing, 361,000 early votes have already been cast as of October 30.  The total number of votes in 2008 were 2.8mil, early voting accounting for 23.6% (a state record!) of votes (~660k). Keeping in mind it was last updated October 30 (on the GMU website), a little over half of early votes one would expect have already been cast.

    It is worth noting the sec of state office says 10000 fewer early votes have been cast than at the same point 4 years ago.

    Doing a little math (because I cant find daily early vote returns), Oct 8 to 30 is 23 days. 361,000 divided by 23 is  ~15700 per day. So, approximately 251,000 early votes were made PRIOR to the rape comments / debate. So approximately 38% of early votes (that we would expect assuming same voter turnout levels as 2008) were cast before those comments.

    I can't find partisan breakdown information of the votes already cast (doubt anyone will). So it is hard to determine how many votes of the 361,000 so far could have been swayed by the comments (i.e. votes from undecided who went party line vote or something).

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