Skip to main content

Ever since Richard Mourdock made his infamous comment, we have been seeing a good deal of released internal polls, but nothing from a credible, independent source.  Howey Political Report released their poll today, with good news for Democrats:

Donnelly 47
Mourdock 36

The biggest issue I have with these polls is that they don't seem to push undecideds very heavily.  That said, this post by Democratic Pollster Fred Yang mentions that Donnelly has an even larger lead in the state than Gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence.  The poll pegs that race as:

Pence 47
Gregg 40

Also, much to my chagrin, but to no one's surprise, Indiana will return to being a red state on the presidential level.

Romney 51
Obama 41

I'd like to see Obama get to within a 10 percent final margin in the state.  Early voting lines in Indianapolis have been huge, which is good news.

Regardless of the other polls in the survey, it appears that the Tea Party has been successful in replacing a reasonable Republican statesman with a Centrist Democrat at the Senate level.  Indiana is a conservative state, but it's not so conservative that an idealogue such as Mourdock can just skate by, insulting a high percentage of the population along his way.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  At this point, I'll take any winning Democrat (6+ / 0-)

    for the Senate I can get.

    "Mistress of the Topaz" is now available in paperback! Link here: http://www.double-dragon-ebooks.com/single.php?ISBN=1-55404-900-8

    by Kimball Cross on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 05:59:03 AM PDT

  •  11 Points in 4 days......Call in Karl Rove.....The (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente

    Fixer.

  •  NW Indiana (0+ / 0-)

    and the Chicago/IN suburbs should also make a difference. I still don't believe IN is as solid Red as they claim.

    If not us ... who? If not here ... where? If not now ... when?

    by RUNDOWN on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:01:52 AM PDT

  •  Encouraging that despite all the money (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    scotslass

    that Rove has spent on Mourdock's behalf that it doesn't seem to be having much of an effect even in a very conservative electorate.  I don't know if this poll is right but what it tells me is wherever the race was before Rove increased his involvement there has not been much change since then.

    If turnout in Indianapolis and the Chicago/IN suburbs is high then it seems that Donnelly would benefit.  If Obama is getting over 40% in Indiana and if he can creep up to 43% or 44% then Donnelly could win by around 2 to 5 points.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:10:32 AM PDT

  •  He ain't winning any progressive awards, but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente

    I'm working my ass off trying to get Donnelly elected.

    I'm just hoping we can keep IN-2 blue though with Mullen

    --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

    by idbecrazyif on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:18:34 AM PDT

  •  The Teabaggers are the gift.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Berkeley Fred

    that just keeps on giving. I don't want to even think about the makeup of the Senate if they hadn't nominated a bunch pro-rapists, ex-witches, and nitwits that publicly state they can't tell the difference between Asians and Latinos.

  •  though early voting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    idbecrazyif

    in Indianapolis is down from 08. we need to win this one. go JOE. and go Brendan Mullen. His opponent, Walorski, is the spawn of Bachman.

    Obama or Clinton or Biden should at least touch down in Gary or Indy or South Bend, in the next few days, for this race. Hoosiers are pissed about what happened to Lugar.

    •  I drive from Elkhart to South Bend every day (0+ / 0-)

      And Im seeing more and more signs pop up, hand painted signs mind you, with Warlorski's name and a giant X over it.

      When I've met a fence sitting I just remind them that Warloski was key in the deal that sold the Toll Road, an event that still leaves a bitter taste in Hoosier mouths...even republicans.

      --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

      by idbecrazyif on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:30:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This gives me hope for Indiana, that (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jkb246, mconvente

    notwithstanding their inability to recognize that Republicans have been selling them a bill of goods for years there are actual limits of decency, compassion and tolerance that can't be crossed.

    Further, affiant sayeth not.

    by Gary Norton on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:21:29 AM PDT

  •  If we win this... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mconvente

    If we win this, and if Bob Kerrey wins in NE, we will have a very good night indeed.

    But I'm still a little nervous about WI, and I think we will probably lose ND, based on the polls I'm seeing.

  •  New to Indiana (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    idbecrazyif

    I just dont get how a blue collar state voes for Mitt.  Its like people want to make 12$ an hour forever.  Yes the cost of living is low, but dont people want more

    •  Its actually pretty moderate here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mconvente, jkb246

      More than it would seem, you would have have to live here for awhile to see it.

      Unfortunately many people are low information voters here, even in normally democratic strongholds like Northern IN and Northwest and either vote with trends or with feelings.

      --Enlighten the people, generally, and tyranny and oppressions of body and mind will vanish like spirits at the dawn of day. - Thomas Jefferson--

      by idbecrazyif on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 06:51:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tealiban has won more seats for the Dems (0+ / 0-)

    than the DSCC.

    We wouldn't have the Senate if it wasn't for these clowns. Keep 'em coming!

    A society is judged by how well it cares for those in the dawn of life, the children. By how well it cares for those in the twilight of life, the elderly. And, by how well it cares for those on the edge of life; the poor, the sick, and the disabled.

    by BobBlueMass on Fri Nov 02, 2012 at 07:25:52 AM PDT

  •  early vote (0+ / 0-)

    Could you add some analysis about the early voting in Indiana start date versus when the event occurred?

    Early voting started on October 8, and the rape comment occurred on October 23.

    From what I am seeing, 361,000 early votes have already been cast as of October 30.  The total number of votes in 2008 were 2.8mil, early voting accounting for 23.6% (a state record!) of votes (~660k). Keeping in mind it was last updated October 30 (on the GMU website), a little over half of early votes one would expect have already been cast.

    It is worth noting the sec of state office says 10000 fewer early votes have been cast than at the same point 4 years ago.

    Doing a little math (because I cant find daily early vote returns), Oct 8 to 30 is 23 days. 361,000 divided by 23 is  ~15700 per day. So, approximately 251,000 early votes were made PRIOR to the rape comments / debate. So approximately 38% of early votes (that we would expect assuming same voter turnout levels as 2008) were cast before those comments.

    I can't find partisan breakdown information of the votes already cast (doubt anyone will). So it is hard to determine how many votes of the 361,000 so far could have been swayed by the comments (i.e. votes from undecided who went party line vote or something).

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site