Currently, the estimated Latino vote in the national elections is 10% of the electorate. It is the fastest growing electorate in the U.S. It is also the fastest growing population according to the Census Bureau.
In Arizona:
2000-2010 Growth in Latino Eligible Voters was 72%.(7.2 % yearly average growth)
Total Latino Eligible Voters: 1,061,000
Latino Portion of State Electorate: 20.0%
Percent Voting GOP Among Latinos: 16%
With a growth rate of 7.2% per year in 2 years (2014), the Latino Portion of the State Electorate will jump to 29% and become a 5+ % Democratic state!
Texas on the other hand will take 5-6 years at 3.8% yearly growth to become a breakeven battleground state.
2000-2010 Growth in Latino Eligible Voters: 38%
Total Latino Eligible Voters: 4,376,000
Latino Portion of State Electorate: 26.6%
Percent Voting GOP Among Latinos: 23% (national average. Florida maxes at 31% )
Here is the source of stats and predictions with a fun interactive map for all you stats freaks out there.
HT to GreenChileDem, LatinoKos and Latino Decisions for the links.
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One of the strategies of the Democratic Party is to recognize the emerging trends and to mobilize immediately. Future campaigns and success are directly correlated with the engagement of important resources and focus on Latino voters.
A great analysis and good read is provided by Freepress.net.
A U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce study found that while close to $360 million was spent on political advertising in 10 states from early April through September, just $16 million — or 4.6 percent of the total — went to ad buys on Spanish-language TV. The Obama campaign and supporting organizations have spent $7 million — or 9 percent — of their ad dollars on Spanishlanguage ads, while the Romney campaign and its supporters have spent $3.2 million, or 4 percent of their total ad dollars.
“Political commentators from both sides of the aisle have said repeatedly that 2012 is the ‘year of the Hispanic voter,’” said Javier Palomarez, president of the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. "But while political advertising spending records are being shattered, neither political party is investing a comparable percentage of their advertising dollars to reach these voters. The difference between rhetoric and action is striking and, frankly, troubling.”
Conversely, the Freepress article quotes many who express concern whether a flood of political ads would erode efforts to ensure that Latino voters have accurate information about the issues impacting their lives; especially in light of all the
Citizens United decision that has carpeted the airwaves with negative and misleading information from shadowy conservative SuperPac organizations.
In other words, more political ads may not turn out to be a blessing. “It is great to be validated,” says Andrea Quijada. “It is disappointing if that it is only happening through advertising.”
The election and promotion of good progressive Latino candidates with the engagement of Latino voters will carry Democratic victories far into the future political
landscape.