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Poblano just ran the newest Senate numbers into his model. Here is where things stand:

52.5 Dem caucus seats projected
91.6% chance of Dem caucus majority

And by state from most to least likely D win:
Dianne Feinstein (CA): 100.0%
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY): 100.0%
Maria Cantwell (WA): 100.0%
Tom Carper (DE): 99.8%
Amy Klobuchar (MN): 99.7%
Bernie Sanders (I-VT): 99.7%
Bill Nelson (FL): 99.6%
Mazie Hirono (HI): 99.6%
Sheldon Whitehouse (RI): 99.5% (and Dick Morris said this one was a toss-up...)
Debbie Stabenow (MI): 99.5%
Bob Menendez (NJ): 99.0%
Ben Cardin (MD): 98.9%
Sherrod Brown (OH): 97.5%
Bob Casey (PA): 95.5%
Liz Warren (MA): 93.5%
Martin Heinrich (NM): 92.8%
Angus King (I-ME): 92.1%
Chris Murphy (CT): 92.0%
Joe Manchin (WV): 89.6%
Claire McCaskill (MO): 88.6%
Tim Kaine (VA): 85.9%
Tammy Baldwin (WI): 77.7%
Joe Donnelly (IN): 68.0%
Jon Tester (MT): 32.3%
Shelley Berkley (NV): 23.1%
Richard Carmona (AZ): 20.7%
Heidi Heitkamp (ND): 11.8%
Paul Sadler (TX): 1.8%
Bob Kerrey (NE): 0.9%
Al Gore (MS): 0.2%
Mark Clayton (TN): 0.2%
Tim Chestnut (WY): 0.1%
Scott Howell (UT): 0.0%

8:54 PM PT: For those wanting a link: go to, and, in the right column under FiveThirtyEight Forecast, click on the Senate button. Scroll down and you can look at individual states...

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