The latest odds of an Obama win hit 99.8% according to the Princeton Election Consortium:
Electoral Votes:
Obama: 323
Romney: 215
Meta-margin:
Obama +3.02%
Probability of Obama re-election:
Random Drift 98.1%, Bayesian Prediction 99.8%
More below the squashed orange bug.
In the words of Professor Wang (see Princeton Election Consortium):
President Obama is peeling away. As you can see from the electoral vote (EV) estimator, he is the candidate with the momentum, not Romney. In terms of EV or the Meta-margin, he's made up just about half the ground he ceded to Romney after Debate #1. And the indicators are still headed straight up.
* * *
A few days ago, the word was that Team Romney was buying ads in Minnesota and Pennsylvania. If he wins either of those states I will eat a bug. Ohio...a really big bug. And yes, I will post a photo.
So it appears, with the bug pledge, that he has put his mouth where his money is.
The good professor also discusses the odds of Obama winning the Electoral College and Romney winning the popular vote:
Anyway, the short answer: I estimate Romney's chance of winning the popular vote at 6%, odds of 16-1 against.
Keep up the GOTV effort, but hope this increases your enthusiasm.