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We've been seeing them for months - the polls. I'm sure most will agree that during the run up to an election at least, the polls are as addicting as any drug. We need something to take the edge off our worst fears so we turn to the pollsters -- Rasmussen, CNN/USA/Gallup, PPP, Zogby, ABC, Washington Post, Nate Silver, Gravis, Time, Battleground Poll, Marist, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac, Rand, Newsweek, Pew, McLoughlin, AP/Ipsos and all the many others.
But there are some polling groups out there who get ignored every four years and they've had some fairly accurate predictions. I say they deserve some recognition. Come on down and let's take a look at them.
The Redskins Rule. No, not "Rule" as in they're the best, but "Rule" as a measurement, a bellweather. Washington Redskins Game will predict the U.S. presidential eleciton winner:
This "Redskins Rule" has been used as a superstitious predictor for the presidential elections since the club moved to DC from Boston in 1937. The belief is that if the Washington Redskins win their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party would stay in power. The "Rule" has been accurate 17 out of 18 times. The outlier being the infamous 2000 election when the Redskins lost to Green Bay and "W"
stole was awarded the win over Al Gore.
Four years ago the results were:
Pittsburgh Steelers 23
Washington Redskins 6
Prediction according to the Redskins Rule: Obama
Today the 'Skins, who are 3-5, face the Carolina Panthers, who are 1-6. The latest line gives the Redskins a 3 point advantage.
2000 - Bush 21% - Gore 20%
2004 - Bush 51% - Kerry 49%
2008 - Obama 52% - McCain 46%
7-Eleven, Inc. President and CEO Joe DePinto said in a press release, “While we have never billed 7-Election as scientific or statistically valid, it is astounding just how accurate this simple count-the-cups poll has been – election after election. We have had a lot of fun with it, and I hope we have encouraged people how important it is to vote in the real election.”An interactive 7-Eleven map will allow you to see who is ahead in your state. As I write this, nationally Obama is ahead of Romney 59% - 41%.
In only their second presidential campaign contest, Perfecto's Cafe in Tweksbury, Massachusetts is using cookie sales to track the outcome of the election.
"We try to figure out the motive behind them," said store manager Amy Bustin. "Do people buy the candidate they like, or is it to bite his head off and throw the whole thing in the garbage? We find people usually buy what they support."The Perfecto's first time out in 2008 ended with Obama cookies outselling McCain's and the store is hoping for a second success this year and say that Obama is in the lead with 48 percent of the sales over Romney's 46 percent.
In the 2008 tally, Obama masks outsold McCain's by a 5 to 3 margin.
At this writing the vote is tied 50/50 between the candidates with the site predicting 100% accuracy. Official Presidential Mask Poll 2012 is offering an interactive state by state map to track how well the candidates are doing. Some states are downright scary!
Since 1992, every presidential election year Family Circle magazine runs a cookie recipe contest between the two potential First Ladies.
The last election was the first time the polling was incorrect and what a contest it was for the 2008 event. The primary that year was taking so long that the magazine allowed Bill Clinton - the first male "First Lady" entrant - to take part as a third contestant. Cindy McCain's Oatmeal-butterscotch cookies won, but with a flag (or an * if you prefer) as it was later learned that Cindy allegedly plagiarized her recipe from elsewhere — twice.
This year Michelle Obama was crowned champion with a 4,844 vote advantage for her White and Dark Chocolate Chip Cookies over Ann Romney's 4,557 votes for her M&M Cookies.
Every vote counts, even the little ones! The Scholastic Student Vote, dating back to 1940 has correctly predicted all save two elections - 15 out of 17. Their only two errors were Dewey over Truman in 1948 and Nixon over Kennedy in 1960.
This year the results are: Obama 51%, Romney 45% and Other 4%. You can see the state by state breakout at the link above.
The Weekly Reader who also conducted a presidential poll merged with Scholastic News therefore their poll is included with the Scholastic News results.
The Weekly Reader's polling was correct 12 out of 13 times with their last poll in 2008 correctly predicting Obama over McCain. Evidently, their poll last time generated quite a buzz with a Drudge Report screen shot highlighted on FiveThirtyEight's web site by a commenter.
This year President Obama captured 65% of the the vote from more than 520,000 ballots cast over a one week period in October.
President Barack Obama sat down for a taping in the White House, where he answered questions regarding gun control, jobs, immigration, same-sex marriage, outsourcing, bullying and obesity, as well as light-hearted questions including his most embarrassing moment. ("Running into the wall is par for the course for me," he says. "I'm running into doors and desks all the time.")Mitt Romney declined to participate.
"By answering kids' questions directly, candidates show respect for kids," says Linda Ellerbee in a statement. "We are disappointed that Mitt Romney wouldn't take the time to answer the questions but are thrilled that President Obama participated in the special."
This panel gathered in New Orleans in May of this year and for the first time included a contingent from China where astrology has been gaining in popularity. The participants offer their predictions on many things including the stock market, the economy, earthquakes and presidential elections. Each panelist used a different technique, some using winter solstice charts others favored planetary charts and one used the candidate's birth information.
The astrologers also warned that a Mercury retrograde — an alignment of Mercury, the sun and Earth — begins on Election Day and could lead to voting irregularities. The last time a Mercury retrograde appeared on Election Day was on Nov. 7, 2000 — and it took a Florida recount and Supreme Court decision to finalize a winner.In 2008 the group convened in Denver and the seven panelists predicted a Barack Obama win — this prognostication coming before the Democratic primary between Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton had even come to a close. The panel reported then that the passage of Saturn in opposition to Uranus, a phenomenon that began on Election day 2008 and last occurred 45 years prior, signified social change, transformation, and possibly upheaval" — which, according to the astrologers, Obama seemed more equipped to bring about.
So there you have it, folks. Pending the outcome of the Redskins game, there was one tie and Obama swept the rest of the polls. Just don't let this good new allow you to become complacent - get out there and vote if you have not already. Let's bring this thing back home.