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PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Our final Colorado poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 52/46.

November 05, 2012

Obama leads in CO, NV

PPP's final polls in Colorado and Nevada find Barack Obama leading by margins of 52/46 and 51/47 respectively. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Colorado since the first Presidential debate and found Obama leading by an average of 4.25 points. PPP has conducted 3 polls in Nevada since the first debate and found Obama ahead by a 4 point margin every time.

In Colorado Obama is winning thanks to a huge advantage among independent voters, 59/34. He's down 57/41 among seniors but leads 58/39 among voters under 45, a huge generational split that suggests the state may be voting Democratic for a long time to come. Obama's actually running slightly ahead with white voters (50/49) and when you combine that with his big advantage among Hispanics it fuels his overall 6 point lead.

In Nevada Obama's going into election day with a large lead. We find that among early voters he's up 55/44. Romney leads 56/40 with those planning to vote tomorrow but he'd need a much wider margin than that given that most of the state has already voted. Obama's leading based on overwhelming support from Hispanic voters (66/32) and those under 30 (62/34).

The greater intrigue in Nevada will be the Senate race where we find Dean Heller leading Shelley Berkley 48/46 with Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanderBeek at 4%. VanderBeek seems to mostly be pulling from Berkley- his supporters are voting for Obama by a 56/27 margin. Heller needs those folks to follow through on voting third party to hold on to his small advantage.

There is one good sign in the poll for Berkley that speaks to the potential for an upset. Among early voters she's leading 52/44, running only three points behind Obama's 55/44 standing. If she can somehow continue to only run 3 points behind him among election day voters there's a good chance he could pull her across the finish line assuming that he does indeed end up taking the state by a margin of 4 points or more.

If Berkley wins it's definitely going to be the Democratic lean of the state that does it for her. She is very unpopular with only 39% of voters viewing her favorably to 55% with a negative opinion. By contrast Heller's approval rating is 47/42.

Finally, Colorado is set to legalize marijuana tomorrow. 52% of voters support the amendment to do so, compared to 44% who are opposed.

Full results here

GreenGuy's Guide to the 2012 Election

BTW check out my 2012 Election Guide

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