Are we going to win? Yeah. I think so.
But as Wellington said after the Battle of Waterloo ...
It has been a damned serious business... It has been a damned nice thing — the nearest run thing you ever saw in your life. ... By God!
We have the edge in this election. It's real and it's durable.
But it's a damn fine edge and it provides precious little margin. If we are honest, we must concede that the Right has a reason to be expectant. At least as much reason as we had in 2004.
To soothe our nerves, we all read Nate, right? Well consider what he actually says.
Nate projects Obama at 86% likelihood of winning. That's good. Nate has always based his projections on what he repeatedly describes as "modest" leads in key EV states. Right now, those states look pretty good.
But Nate does NOT argue that the tight national polls are meaningless. Consider these comments from yesterday:
Mr. Romney would not be in much danger of losing the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by more than about 1.5 percentage points. For example, he would be about a 95 percent favorite in the Electoral College if he won the popular vote by two percentage points, according to the forecast model.
But with national polls now showing a slight edge for Mr. Obama, these outcomes have become less likely. If Mr. Romney wins the popular vote, it may be only barely, and that might not be enough for him to win the Electoral College.
- Nate Silver, 538 Blog, November 4, 2012, 9:23 pm
Right now, the consensus of the national polls is pretty close to what the MSM says: they're pretty well tied. They are CLOSE, Man!
And, if Nate is to be believed, a final swing of a couple of points nationally would start flipping those EV states.
Well, what's the likelihood of this happening?
Again, my feeling is that PBO has the edge. A durable but narrow edge. Everything has broken his way for about a month. There is no reason to foresee a break toward Romney.
On the other hand, we have NOT seen something I actually expected. I figured in this last week we'd see Obama gaining some daylight in the national polls. A few points reflecting the economy, the storm, the Jeep fiasco, and swing state polling.
It hasn't happened. And I personally cannot blame that all on the MSM narrative. The polls have improved, marginally, but they have remained stubbornly close. I think the MSM is culpable for ignoring the EV races, but they have a point. Romney is stubbornly close.
And I just have this worry about a deep core of cussedness that the American people are capable of. I mean, what else can explain the persistence of viability for campaigns as irrational as Romney's, Akin's Madnel's, etc.
Can we really dismiss the possibility that, tomorrow morning, a couple of points worth of Americans will flip Red or stay home?
It's tight, man. Really tight.
It comes down to 3 things:
1. GOP voter suppression
2. DEM GO TV
3. Americans' willingness to go to the polls.
I think we'll be OK. But it's a damn close run thing. And we'll all be sweating bullets until it's over.