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Happy Election Eve from BLUE Dallas County, Texas!  Let me say that again, if anyone missed it: BLUE Dallas County, Texas.

The early/mail voting numbers are in for my precinct.  I am the Alternate Election judge for my precinct, and will be there bright and early at 6:00 AM to open up.  We must mark all the early and mail/absentee voters into our copy of the voter roll before the polls open tomorrow morning, so we know who has already voted.  There are 1,999 registered voters in the precinct in 2012, and as of last night when we received the official count from the Dallas County Elections Administrator's office, 1,000 of them had voted.

Step over the five-day-old, post-Hallowe’en, Election Eve roadkill smashed pumpkin detritus for more Lone Star state on-the-ground, at the grass-roots precinct level details.  Watch the pepinos.

In 2008, there were 2,101 registered voters, and 1,566 voted, for a 74.54% turnout of registered voters.  So registration is down about 5% this year from 2008. If that 2008 turnout rate holds for the in-person rate, we can expect about 490 more voters tomorrow from 7 AM to 7 PM.  I am ambivalent: hoping for less, actually, given the makeup of the precinct, though more Election Day turnout may mean more Democrats.  But it’s not so simple here in my Dallas precinct.

480 voters (30.6% of voters) went straight GOP in 2008, and 284 (18.1%) went straight Democratic, and 3 voted straight Libertarian.  That’s 48.78 % of those who voted went straight ticket.  There were no over votes, and 799 (51.22%) under votes.  Under votes means those who did not vote in every race, and did not vote straight party.  In a word, more than half split their votes.  The precinct breaks generally 57% R – 42% D. In 2008, it was 887 McCain – 665 Obama, with 9 Libertarian, 2 write-ins, and 3 under votes.  

For comparison to the county-wide vote, in 2008 there were 187,980 (39.16%) GOP straight voters, and 289,551 (60.32%) Democratic straight voters.  For context, the county totals were Obama/Biden 422,989 (57.15%), McCain/Palin 310,000 (41.89%), Barr/Root (Lib.) 42361 (0.59%), and 2,724 (0.37%) write-ins.  It is instructional to look at the 2008 statewide Senate race with the eminently qualified but woefully under-funded Democrat Rick Noriega against “Big” John Cornyn (R-nutcase) went Noriega 396,354(54.77%), Cornyn 312,781 (43.22%), Schick (Lib.) 14,478 (2.0%).  So, the crossover went actually silghtly against Noriega in Dallas County, compared to the Presidential numbers, assuming he had little hope of the Libertarian voters.

In this election, there is Ted “Crazy Troll” Cruz (R-Teabagger) against Democrat Paul Sadler for the open Senate seat being vacated (finally!) by Kay Bailey “Sparkle Pony” Hutchison.  Sadler is as under-funded, if not more, than Noriega was in 2008.  Anecdotally, I have spoken to Republicans and Independents in my own precinct who want nothing to do with him, and are going to vote for Sadler. Cruz, the Teabagger, beat Lt. Governor David Dewhurst for the GOP nomination, totally displeasing the "mainstream" party leadership. Sadler was endorsed by the Dallas Morning News, which went roughly 75% R - 25% D in its endorsements (many of the Dem. endorsements were for candidates with no opposition or in safe Dem. districts or seats), so there may be hope.   I fear that Cruz will cruise to a win, but by a perhaps smaller margin than Cornyn did over Noriega.  Small steps, perhaps, but let’s watch those Sadler-Cruz results as an indication statewide of the shift in the electorate.

You may help Sadler's campaign here: http://www.sadlerforsenate.com/

Mine is a suburban precinct, with a 35-year-old housing stock, with plenty of GOP voters, and many “empty-nesters” (of which we will soon be one, when our son is accepted somewhere for college).  The demographic skews older (at 57, we are among the younger end), quite white/Anglo (75-80%) but with a good dose of younger families with younger kids having moved in the last few years, drawn by the desirable schools.  Slowly the housing is turning over, and that means a younger, and a somewhat more diverse population.  THAT is what gives me hope both in this election and for the future of Texas, if my fairly red Dallas suburban precinct is representative.  And add to that the inexorable march of time and demographic changes that are here now and are coming in the future.

There are a number of downballot state races  (Education Commission, etc.), state Rep. and Senate seats, and county-wide races (County Commissioners and County Judge, Sheriff, District Attorney, judgeships), all of which are expected to continue Democratic control in Dallas County.  I’ll try to report back on the results in my precinct (when available) for a micro look at how Dallas County, and Texas,  are slowly but inevitably changing.  We may be pleasantly surprised.

Originally posted to tom 47 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 10:00 AM PST.

Also republished by TexKos-Messing with Texas with Nothing but Love for Texans and Houston Area Kossacks.

Poll

How will Dallas County TX Precinct 2043 do in 2012?

54%25 votes
10%5 votes
23%11 votes
6%3 votes
4%2 votes

| 46 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (18+ / 0-)

    I'm part of the "bedwetting bunch of website Democrat base people (DKos)." - Rush Limbaugh, 10/16/2012 Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

    by tom 47 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 10:00:49 AM PST

  •  Republished to TexKos (7+ / 0-)

    Here in Harris County, over 800,000 people voted in early voting, unprecedented numbers. Given all the Hispanic-targeted GOTV mailings I got (given my husband's Mediterranean surname), I am guessing that the Hispanic vote will be significant here.

    Naysayers beware: Texas is soon to become a 25-million-person swing state! Believe it!

    Those who do not understand history are condemned to repeat it... in summer school.

    by cassandracarolina on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 10:14:57 AM PST

    •  Thanks, cassandra. Texas early voting totals: (5+ / 0-)

      http://dfw.cbslocal.com/...

      DALLAS (CBSDFW/AP) - Friday was the last day for early voting, and while numbers were good, they were still slightly down across North Texas compared to 2008.

      Secretary of State Hope Andrade says Texas has a record number of voters this year, with more than 13.64 million registered to cast ballots. The previous record number of Texans registered to vote was more than 13.57 million during the November 2008 general election.

      According to election officials, turnout in North Texas was good, but still lower than 2008. Dallas County reported 418,000 voters had cast ballots since early voting began October 22.  Four years ago the early turnout was 477,000.

      In Tarrant County, 387,000 people voted early – 10 percent below their 2008 numbers.  Denton County had 163,000, down from 174,000 in 2008.

      I'm part of the "bedwetting bunch of website Democrat base people (DKos)." - Rush Limbaugh, 10/16/2012 Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

      by tom 47 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 10:34:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Tarrant County is supposed to be redder than red, (0+ / 0-)

        so the 10% decrease may be good. It might make my blue vote more weighty, anyway.

        I think schools are a problem here. Parents are the primary source of political opinion.

        My 18-y-o niece is a strong supporter of the president and her mom did tell me one of her teachers was over the line conservative, so my sister sent a note to the principal.

        "I believe more women should carry guns. I believe armed women will make the world a better place. Women need to come to think of themselves not as victims but as dangerous." Anna Pigeon

        by glorificus on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 11:58:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  But Travis County had an even worse turnout (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          txcatlin, nomandates

          Travis County's turnout was down 61,000 voters which was 11.66% worse than 2008.

          Turnout for the 15 most populous counties was down 2.5%.

          We can hope that it is a sign that voters aren't turning out for R/R in the way they turned out for Palin/McCain but the polls show that Democrats will do worse than they did in 2008 and the numbers support their predictions.

          I, for one, have no problem being led by a 3500 year old Pharaoh who was trained by space aliens on a distant star.

          by Tomtech on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 12:24:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Texas Sos official numbers: (4+ / 0-)

        through Nov. 2 (last day of early voting), for the 15 largest population counties.  Cumulative total of 39.8%.

        November 6, 2012
        Early Voting
        Cumulative Totals
        Thru Close of Business
        November 2, 2012

        County/ Reg Voters/ # In Person On 11/2/2012/ Cumulative In-Person Voters/ Cumulative % In-Person/ Cumulative By Mail Voters/ Cumulative In-Person And Mail Voters/ Cumulative Percent Early Voting
        Harris/ 2,000,011/ 86,085/ 700,216/ 35.01%/ 66,310/ 766,526/ 38.33%
        Dallas/ 1,177,468/ 56,105/ 415,743/ 35.31%/ 28,164/ 443,907/ 37.70%
        Tarrant/ 974,880/ 53,603/ 387,350/ 39.73%/ 31,528/ 418,878/ 42.97%
        Bexar/ 918,552/ 45,375/ 348,326/ 37.92%/ 22,327/ 370,653/ 40.35%
        Travis/ 632,962/ 34,521/ 222,913/ 35.22%/ 13,830/ 236,743/ 37.40%
        Collin/ 458,872/ 30,908/ 213,447/ 46.52%/ 8,568/ 222,015/ 48.38%
        El Paso/ 383,737/ 14,149/ 93,558/ 24.38%/ 2,631/ 96,189/ 25.07%
        Denton/ 386,742/ 21,520/ 163,082/ 42.17%/ 6,817/ 169,899/ 43.93%
        Fort Bend/ 339,694/ 20,535/ 153,090/ 45.07%/ 9,865/ 162,955/ 47.97%
        Hidalgo/ 304,823/ 14,238/ 99,647/ 32.69%/ 3,623 103,270 33.88%
        Montgo/mery
        264,980/ 13,781/ 114,092/ 43.06%/ 8,271/ 122,363/ 46.18%
        Williamson/ 253,440/ 14,338/ 100,472/ 39.64%/ 5,036/ 105,508/ 41.63%
        Nueces/ 191,960/ 7,627/ 56,595/ 29.48%/ 4,247/ 60,842/ 31.70%/
        Galveston/ 185,379/ 9,925 77,762 41.95%/ 6,408/ 84,170/ 45.40%
        Cameron/ 180,389/ 6,620/ 42,103/ 23.34%/ 1,476/ 43,579/ 24.16%
        Total/ 8,653,889/ 429,330/ 3,188,396/ 36.84%/ 219,101 3,407,497/ 39.38% /

        http://www.sos.state.tx.us/...

        I'm part of the "bedwetting bunch of website Democrat base people (DKos)." - Rush Limbaugh, 10/16/2012 Torture is Wrong! We live near W so you don't have to. Send love.

        by tom 47 on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 12:19:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I took a back roads drive from Houston to Austin (7+ / 0-)

    two weeks ago that went through Austin County, Colorado County, and Fayette County.  Lots of big ranches, German named towns, and decidedly red.  Expected to see lots of Romney/Ryan signs where four years ago I saw lots of McCain/Palin signs and was surprised to see very few at all.    But outside of Cat Spring, I had to do a u-turn because I suddenly saw a fence line of Obama signs and down ballot dem signs. What a sight!  Granted it was next to a mobile home on a small lot by the highway, indicating it probably wasn't a large land owner, and probably not a white person either, but it was definitely a person who wasn't afraid.  It is progress.  We, in Texas, are moving FORWARD whether the gentry like it or not.  Can't wait!    

    It is not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom — for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself. - The Declaration of Arbroath 1320

    by htowngenie on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 10:30:31 AM PST

  •  I'm (4+ / 0-)

    in a suburb of Dallas, and while I haven't seen many Obama signs, neither have I seen Romney ones.  In my neighborhood, there are only two Romney signs, and they are not on my street.  One of them is in front of the meanest man in the neighborhood's house, and the other is farther down the same street.  It is in front of a house that always has a big Repub sign of some kind.  In that house resides a man whose son hit a car of my neighbor (she saw it through the window).  The kid rushed home and dad whisked him away quickly and when the neighbor got there, the dad said "oh, no, he isn't here--he is out of town."  This kid had a large, noisy, easily identifiable truck that was unmistakable through the window.  

    So, in summary, the two biggest jerks in my neighborhood are the only ones with Romney signs.  I'm sure many of the others will vote for him, but obviously don't like him enough to put out a sign.  

  •  So glad to hear this, tom 47! (3+ / 0-)

    Keep up the good work.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Mon Nov 05, 2012 at 12:26:21 PM PST

  •  Go Texas (3+ / 0-)

    I was born in Texas and most of my family is still there.
    Sadly, they will not be Obama voters, though there is one person I'm not sure about, who might be a stealth Obama/Sadler voter.

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