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This is a comparison of the various house race ratings... And I will be identify who is the most accurate of the experts following the results.

Currently based on my house race ratings I am projecting a house still controlled by the Republicans 229 - 206... But that is my head talking - my heart says that it will 224 - 211, a far narrower margin. Why the difference ? Well Lean D doesn't guarantee a Dem win and vice versa, so my prediction is different to what my house race ratings projection says... I am an optimist even when the polls are not so good.  

I was hoping to have this done earlier... but life has its challenges at the moment!

So this is more for posterity than anything given there is not much time for a debate.

THE WAY THIS DIARY IS SET UP MEANS THAT YOU WILL NEED TO VIEW THE DOCS IN FULLSCREEN

Apologies for any errors and omissions...

Apologies in advance to those non-DKE types for your local races that I have rated Safe R - I realise that your candidate will win because truth and justice will prevail... But in a few hours they will lose and I envy your enthusiasm in these blood red seats.

My Ratings Map
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With regards to the map I was close to making many of my Lean GOP races Likely GOP - particularly NY-11, MT-AL, ND-AL and IN-08.

I use my ratings as the key for the two charts below. I will update this diary later on the comparison between the pundits.

Race Ratings Comparison - The Experts

Competitive Races 1                                                                                            

Race Ratings Comparison - The DKE Crew

I didnt have time to add in a few other race ratings... particular where a full diary hasn't been done. I also didnt have time to update jncca's prediction, but these are contained in an excellent diary here.

Apologies again if I got anything wrong.

Competitive Races 2a                                                                                            

Polling Ready Reckoner for Close Races

Here is a handy little polling ready reckoner that I have come up with... Not meant to compete with the fancy graphs with all the data put in, but I need something a bit different. IN-08 is the only competitive race where there is no polling available - That probably means it is not good for us, but the teabagger incumbent obviously isnt performing over and above either. Please let me know what you think. The X on the right hand side of the table is a link to that particular poll.

Competitive Polling2                                                                                            

My Prediction Map
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My Prediction

This is just a bit of fun really... 224 Republican Seats and 211 Democrat Seats. This projection of the election outcome involves a few upsets... Such as Vilsack wins IA-04 (even though I give IA-03 to Latham). We also win TX-14... but still lose TN-04 despite the controversy.

The basic theme of my fairly optimistic prediction (assuming 4 regions) is that the Dems win big across the board... winning a majority of competitive races, but still falling well short of a majority. They win especially big in the west especially in California, Arizona and Colorado with only NV-03, CA-21 and CA-36 disappointing. They also have reasonably strong performances in the South, especially in Florida (where I give Demming and Murphy wins), and with Barrow winning his last election by a hair.

For the Mid-West Cravaack (MN-08), Benishek (MI-01), Renacci (OH-16), Johnson  (OH-06) and the Dems win all competitive Illinois races.

In the North East the Dems gaining both New Hampshire seats, while Tierney wins MA-06. Dem incumbents all hold on in New York (of course I am in no way confident for Hochul) and we take back NY-18 off Hayworth.

Other DKE Rating Diaries

3:14 PM PT: DKE changed NM-01 to Safe Dem at the last minute, as well as changing NY-24 to Toss-Up.

Poll

Who is the greatest house race rater of them all ? Or even who are you closer to in your own ratings(Out of modesty I am not on the list)

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| 3 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ER Doc, abgin

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

    by CF of Aus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 03:08:44 PM PST

  •  All these guys are out of touch with CA-49 race (0+ / 0-)

    No offense to anyone who is skeptical about the race in California's 49th Congressional District but it is NOT Safe Republican.  I've been covering the campaign since September and it's starting the movement that originally began to unseat Richard Pombo and Brian Bilbray.  As you may or may not be aware, challengers in both races ran more than once.  Jerry Mcnerney ran in 2004 against Pombo, lost, ran again in 2006 and won.  Francine Busby on the other hand, ran in 2004, lost,  Ran again in 2006, lost.  Ran in 2010 and lost again.  However, now the district that Bilbray is representing is now becoming a toss-up or Lean Democrat district.

    Jerry Tetalman is starting the movement and believe me, Darrell Issa's days are numbered.  He's got a lot of skeletons and bad press lately so if he's not beaten tonight, he will be in 2014.  I know this because I've had in-depth conversations with Jerry Tetalman and his campaign manager.  If anything, Tetalman's campaign had momentum late and it's not guaranteed it will last through tonight to the point where Issa will be beaten.  However, TEtalman is still a fighter and I highly endorse him for 2014 if he loses tonight.

  •  On the CA-49 race (0+ / 0-)

    Furthermore, I haven't seen a single poll that points to the CA-49 district as being Safe Republican.  I would like these bozos who make their claims to back it up with real data analysis and factual information.

  •  My daughter just called. In MN 6th district (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus

    (Bachmann's territory) she went through the line in under ten minutes , but, the line for same-day registration had more than 200 people in it; went outside the building. There's a constitutional amendment on the ballot this year for voter ID which would incidentally eliminate same-day registration here. Also, I have to guess that this is a good sign for the Dems... This isn't a college town, so this is just a bunch of people who either recently moved or never voted before.

    -7.25, -6.26

    We are men of action; lies do not become us.

    by ER Doc on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 04:37:00 PM PST

    •  My friend it looks like Bachmann (0+ / 0-)

      is very shaky indeed.

      This district is so blood red Graves will lose next time to a sane Republican, but heres to Bachmann losing !

      I will check out how that amendment is going... we are taking back both houses of the state legislature though.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

      by CF of Aus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 11:23:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The Voter ID things is dead (0+ / 0-)

      No dice for the GOP in Minnesota !

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

      by CF of Aus on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 11:56:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

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