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County first
County first!

Here are some tools for advanced poll watchers, who might be watching not just statewide percentages but also county percentages as they come in on Tuesday night. Why on earth would you want to watch county percentages, you might be asking? Well, votes don't come in uniformly across a state; instead, different counties might report more quickly, and depending how those counties might lean politically, the overall percentage statewide might look skewed midway through the reporting process, if, say, a particularly conservative or particularly liberal large county had disproportionately reported. Here, then, are the tools you need to "unskew" those results, and get a sense of whether votes are coming in county-by-county in a manner that would get Democrats just over the 50 percent mark in each state.

These numbers shouldn't be viewed as the gospel truth; this is a process of what's known as "naive extrapolation," assuming that the variation will be consistent from county-to-county, year-to-year. That doesn't take into account that different candidates may have regional strengths that cause the numbers to be weighted differently than the presidential numbers (case in point, the Indiana Senate race; Joe Donnelly is from South Bend, so you'd expect him to overperform in St. Joseph County, allowing him to underperform a tiny bit in the state's other counties). It also doesn't reflect population changes since 2008 (take Douglas County in Colorado for example; because this exurban area is growing so rapidly, it probably now represents more than 6.3 percent of the state's votes ... but, because the new residents may not be proportionately conservative as the county was before, there's also the possibility that Democrats might overperform there relative to 2008 anyway).

I'm including all of the presidential swing states (starting above the fold with Ohio, since that's the state everyone will be focused on, at least for the first part of the evening), and a handful of blue or red states with super-close Senate or gubernatorial races as well. You'll notice that one swing state (and two states with close Senate races, although those Senate races seem to have gotten much less close in recent weeks) are missing: New Hampshire, Connecticut and Masschusetts. That's because the New England states don't report votes by county, but rather by individual town. With all that in mind, here are the tables:

Ohio

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 51/47
Cuyahoga 11.7 68/31 69/30
Franklin 9.8 59/40 60/39
Hamilton 7.4 52/47 53/46
Montgomery 4.9 51/47 52/46
Summit 4.9 57/42 58/41
Lucas 3.9 64/34 65/33
Stark 3.3 51/47 52/46
Butler 3.0 37/62 38/61
Lorain 2.6 57/41 58/40
Mahoning 2.2 61/37 62/36
Lake 2.1 48/50 49/49

(Continues below the fold.)

Arizona

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 45/53
Maricopa 59.5 49/49 44/54
Pima 17.1 57/41 52/46
Pinal 4.6 47/51 42/56
Yavapai 4.3 42/56 37/61
Mohave 3.0 37/60 32/65
Coconino 2.4 63/36 58/41
Cochise 2.1 44/54 39/59

Colorado

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 54/45
Jefferson 12.3 50/49 54/45
El Paso 11.4 36/63 40/59
Denver 11.3 71/27 75/23
Arapahoe 11.1 52/47 56/43
Boulder 7.2 68/30 72/26
Larimer 6.9 50/48 54/44
Adams 6.7 54/44 58/40
Douglas 6.3 37/62 41/58
Weld 4.4 41/57 45/53
Pueblo 3.0 53/46 57/42
Mesa 2.9 30/68 34/64

Florida

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 51/48
Miami-Dade 10.3 57/43 58/42
Broward 8.7 66/33 67/32
Palm Beach 7.0 60/39 61/38
Hillsborough 6.1 52/47 53/46
Pinellas 5.5 52/46 53/45
Orange 5.5 58/41 59/40
Duval 5.0 48/52 49/51
Brevard 3.4 43/57 44/56
Lee 3.2 43/56 44/55
Polk 2.9 45/53 46/52
Volusia 2.9 51/48 52/47
Pasco 2.6 47/52 48/51
Sarasota 2.5 48/50 49/49
Seminole 2.5 47/52 48/51

Indiana

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/50 50/50
Marion 13.8 64/35 64/35
Lake 7.6 67/32 67/32
Allen 5.5 47/52 47/52
Hamilton 4.7 38/61 38/61
St. Joseph 4.3 58/41 58/41
Vanderburgh 2.8 51/48 51/48
Porter 2.7 53/46 53/46
Elkhart 2.6 44/55 44/55
Tippecanoe 2.5 55/43 55/43
Hendricks 2.4 38/61 38/61
Monroe 2.3 65/33 65/33
Johnson 2.1 37/62 37/62
Madison 2.1 52/46 52/46

Iowa

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 54/44
Polk 13.9 52/46 56/42
Linn 7.4 56/42 60/38
Scott 5.6 53/46 57/42
Johnson 4.7 66/32 70/28
Black Hawk 4.2 56/42 60/38
Dubuque 3.1 56/43 60/39
Story 3.0 53/45 57/41
Woodbury 2.9 45/54 49/50
Pottawatomie 2.8 44/54 48/50
Dallas 2.1 42/56 46/52

Montana

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/46 47/49
Yellowstone 14.3 48/49 45/52
Missoula 12.0 65/32 62/35
Gallatin 9.8 53/44 50/47
Flathead 8.9 40/55 37/58
Cascade 7.2 53/45 50/48
Lewis & Clark 6.7 55/42 52/45
Ravalli 4.5 41/56 38/59
Silver Bow 3.5 72/25 69/28
Lake 2.8 51/44 48/47

Nevada

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 55/43
Clark 67.3 53/44 58/39
Washoe 18.6 50/48 55/43
Douglas 2.7 36/62 41/57
Carson City 2.4 44/53 49/48
Lyon 2.2 35/63 40/58

North Carolina

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 50/49
Wake 10.3 57/42 57/42
Mecklenburg 9.6 62/37 62/37
Guilford 5.6 59/40 59/40
Forsyth 3.9 55/44 55/44
Durham 3.2 76/24 76/24
Cumberland 3.0 59/41 59/41
Buncombe 2.9 56/42 56/42
New Hanover 2.3 49/50 49/50
Union 2.0 36/63 36/63
Gaston 2.0 37/62 37/62

North Dakota

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 45/53
Cass 22.6 57/40 52/45
Burleigh 13.2 42/56 37/61
Grand Forks 9.9 56/41 51/46
Ward 8.1 44/53 39/58
Morton 4.2 43/54 38/59
Stark 3.5 39/58 34/63
Stutsman 3.1 46/51 41/56
Williams 3.0 36/62 31/67
Richland 2.4 51/46 46/52

Pennsylvania

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 54/44
Philadelphia 11.9 79/20 83/16
Allegheny 10.9 53/46 57/42
Montgomery 7.0 56/43 60/39
Bucks 5.5 50/49 54/45
Delaware 4.9 56/43 60/39
Chester 4.2 50/49 54/45
Lancaster 3.8 37/59 43/55
York 3.2 38/60 42/56
Berks 3.0 50/49 54/45
Westmoreland 3.0 37/62 41/58
Lehigh 2.5 53/46 57/42
Luzerne 2.3 49/49 53/45
Northampton 2.3 51/47 55/43
Dauphin 2.2 50/49 54/45
Erie 2.1 55/44 59/39

Virginia

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/49 53/46
Fairfax 13.9 57/42 60/39
Virginia Beach 5.4 46/53 49/50
Prince William 4.4 55/45 58/42
Chesterfield 4.4 43/56 46/53
Henrico 4.2 53/46 56/43
Loudoun 3.7 51/48 54/45
Arlington 3.0 69/30 72/27
Chesapeake 2.9 47/52 50/49
Richmond 2.5 76/23 79/20
Norfolk 2.4 74/31 71/28
Newport News 2.2 61/38 64/35

Washington

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/47 57/40
King 30.3 63/35 70/28
Pierce 10.9 48/50 55/43
Snohomish 10.6 51/46 58/39
Spokane 7.2 41/56 48/49
Clark 6.0 45/53 52/46
Thurston 4.2 53/45 60/38
Kitsap 4.1 48/50 55/43
Whatcom 3.3 51/47 58/40
Yakima 2.5 37/61 44/54
Benton 2.4 29/69 36/62

Wisconsin

County % of 2008
statewide vote
What we need to
break 50% statewide
2008 Pres.
Statewide 100.0 50/48 56/42
Milwaukee 15.9 61/37 67/31
Dane 9.5 67/32 73/26
Waukesha 7.8 31/68 37/62
Brown 4.2 48/51 54/45
Racine 3.4 47/52 53/46
Outagamie 3.1 49/49 55/43
Winnebago 2.9 49/49 55/43
Rock 2.7 58/41 64/35
Kenosha 2.6 52/46 58/40
Washington 2.5 29/70 35/64
Marathon 2.3 48/51 54/45
La Crosse 2.1 55/43 61/37
Sheboygan 2.1 43/56 49/50

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 07:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Badger State Progressive and Daily Kos.

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