This will be the FINAL update!! I have placed ALL the charts and graphs and election trivia in one handy-dandy location for my fellow Kossacks! I will re-post it tomorrow morning as well!! It has been a pleasure to amass this data and share it with my brothers and sisters.
First - the BIG PICTURE:
And the FINAL CHANGES I will include (and late alterations orminor fine-tuning will not have any effect on this CONSENSUS:
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CHANGES SINCE LAST UPDATE:
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ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION:
PrincetonConsortium moves OBAMA to 310 from 303l Romney to 228 from 235
BATTLEGROUND STATE DESIGNATION:
NO CHANGES
And here is the FINAL CONSENSUS ELECTORAL MAP:
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And the final EV TRENDLINE from October 21 through today:
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A steady and inexorable climb for Obama and decline for Romney, culminating in the current consensus around either 305 or 334 EVs for Obama and 233 or 204 EVs for Romney..
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For those of you who want to study all possible routes for either candidate through the 9 battleground states - and figure out just how early you can confidently know who is going to win, use this nifty EV Distciminator provided by the NY Times:
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NEW YORK TIMES Battleground State Path Calculator
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And here is the POPULAR VOTE / ELECTORAL VOTE State-by-State Adjustor that I created to explain the mythical 'disconnect' between National and State Polling - but which actually shows clearly how a small Popular Vote margin can lead to a huge EV margin:
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NOTE: This breakout shows quite clearly that the predicted final voying margin (just under 2.0% for OBAMA) leads to a huge EV victory margin - but only because of the process of "winner-take-all" in the Electoral College. (Note that this final margin prediction agrees almost exactly with both Nate Silver and Sam Wang.)
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And here is my own personal prediction for the final Electoral College map:
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And my prediction of the final POPULAR VOTE totals and percentages:
OBAMA: 67,450,000
ROMNEY: 64.940.000
OBAMA: 50.95%
ROMNEY: 49.05%