Skip to main content

The New York Times has a fantastic interactive graphic on their web page.

I just spent the last 15 minutes playing around with scenarios and am going to sleep a lot easier tonight.

He is the link: 512 Paths to the White House

http://www.nytimes.com/...

Basically, the interactive graph lets the user assign winners to battleground states.  The default battlegrounds (with Nate Silvers winning % for Obama) are:
Fla. - 52%
Ohio - 91%
N.C. - 28%
Va. - 80%
Wis. - 97%
Colo. - 80%
Iowa - 85%
Nev. - 94%
N.H. - 85%

Assuming all the above states are 'toss-ups' the interactive maps calculates 431 'paths' for Obama to win with 76 paths for Rmoney.  (Rmoney is certainly between a rock and a rockier place.)

The user can assign each state a winner which causes the paths to recalculate.  For example, if I think Obama will win Wisconsin (97% chance per Nate) Rmoneys paths drop to 24.  When I add Nevada (94% per Nate) to Obama's side, it drops Rmoneys paths to just 9!  And, if I add Ohio, the last state that Mr. Silver gives an above 90% chance to, Rmoneys paths to the White House disappear.

I am a visual guy and found the interactive graphic fun to play with.

I discovered that Obama can still win even if Rmoney takes Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina.  Obama only needs to hold Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada.

A take-away from The Times:

Florida is a Must Win for Romney

If Mr. Romney loses Florida, he has only one way to victory: through all the other battleground states. He has led most polls there, however, and is the favorite. If Mr. Romney wins Florida, he has 75 paths open to him.
Have fun playing.  

Oh, and get out the vote.

Mrs. ForestLake was phone banking on Friday and I knocked on doors yesterday.  We were both reminding voters where their polling place were.  Most of the people we spoke to here in Wisconsin had either already voted or were definitely going to vote on Tuesday.

WE WILL DO THIS!

Poll

Will Obama win Florida?

53%15 votes
17%5 votes
28%8 votes

| 28 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site