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I believe that President Obama will win North Carolina. Seriously, I do, but why? The honest answers to the question are that, I am a hopeless optimist, and there is no penalty for being wrong, but considerable bragging rights accrue to being right. It's a long-shot with a high pay-out.

!. Early voter turnout in North Carolina, which ended Saturday, is higher than it was in 2008.

2. Although more whites voted this time compared to 2008, even more non-whites and Hispanics also voted. The early voter composition of 2012 looks to br more favorable to Obama than it was four years ago.

3. Some part of the fundamentalist religious segment has serious problems with Mormonism, and they will not vote for Romney for that reason alone. It is impossible to say how widespread this is at a distance.

3. The Libertarian Party in North Carolina has grown considerably in the last four years, and it is a mistake to think that the Libertarian Party candidate, Gary Johnson, is inconsequential. I expect Johnson to significantly out-perform Gary Barr in 2008. I have found good reason to suspect that Johnson will draw considerably more votes from Romney than he does from Obama.

 4. I do not see that public polls adequately deal with cellphone-only households, which may be as much as a third of North Carolina voters. Cellphone-only voters break very differently between Romney and Obama. Cellphone-only voters are much more favorable to Obama then are land-line voters, and the cellphone only group is generally under-represented in public polls. This is my way of saying that the polls are skewed in Romney's favor.

5. I do not trust party registrations. For all my life I have lived in communities that were dominated by one party or the other. The only real vote for me, on a local level, has been in primary elections. I have always registered with the dominant party, whatever it was, so that I could have at least some say in local elections, whether or not my "official" party designation had any relation to my political beliefs or not.

6. The Obama Get Out the Vote operation is awesome.

Yep. It's a long shot. But, it's been done before.

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Comment Preferences

  •  AA vote (12+ / 0-)

    I think the African American vote is going to carry Obama in North Carolina this year. They are fired up and ready to go, even more than 4 years ago

  •  You make many good points and I (10+ / 0-)

    certainly hope you are right.  NC would help jack up that electoral vote total.  

    Nobody puts Baby in the binder

    by chicago minx on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:14:34 AM PST

  •  I cautiously agree (7+ / 0-)

    It could be scary close again,but I just don't think the Republicans outnumber us. The same-day registration, the strong AA and Latino vote, and as mentioned, the GOTV effort could really bring home Carolina. I certainly hope so. There is a lot of anger on the right - I see more signs in securely Dem Orange County, but many are clearly Libertarian as well as Romney. I think a lot of Ron Paul people are going to snub Mitt.

    George W. Bush: the worst Republican president SO FAR.

    by Chun Yang on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:19:43 AM PST

  •  hope you are right (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, JamieG from Md, Mnemosyne

    mattTX wrote a great NC numbers diary at some unheard of morning hour today. kind of hope he reposts it.
    he agrees with this NC win.

  •  I live in Greensboro and.. (7+ / 0-)

    It's true, the GOTV boots on the ground effort here has been great, and much more so than 4 years ago. Back then, I had no contact at all; this year I had two door-knockers, one before early voting, the other after I had voted. Maybe it's unnecessary to say, but both were respectful, good humored and encouraging.

  •  My Republican Friend (17+ / 0-)

    There is some hope. I live in NC. In the Western part that is very red. But my co-worker came back from voting this morning and came and told she vorted for Obama. She is very conservative and religious. We have talked politics many times and yet I was surprised.

    She said as a good Christian she could not vote for a man who was such a liar. She went on to tell me that althrough she does not agree with everything the president stands for, she realized that he is a good Christian, a wonderfule husband and father and is honest.

    I was so glad to hear this. She also told me many of her friends feel the same way. let's hope they make the decision to vote for Obama as well.

    Starting to feel lost again in America

    by lostinamerica2711 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:35:21 AM PST

  •  OFA still needs your help today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The grouch, rasfrome

    They have a LOT of doors to knock, and only a few people to knock them. These are sporadic voters that need that one last push to actually cast their votes, so your help will make a HUGE difference!

  •  Only if Charlotte and Downeast (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JamieG from Md

    ...go extremely heavily for Obama.

    Hope. Hope. Hope.

    50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

    by TarheelDem on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 08:53:43 AM PST

    •  Charlotte/Meck, probably... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tomwfox

      ...but Down East?  Fuhgeddabouddit.  Except for Fayetteville/Cumberland Co, which voted heavily for Obama in 2008, you can probably write off anything east of the I-95 corridor.  You MIGHT see blue in Wilmington itself, which could tint New Hanover Co blue(r), and there are a high percentage of minority voters in counties like Pender and Duplin, but the problem there isn't the percentage, it's the raw number of voters.  Craven, Carteret, Beaufort... not a chance.  Morehead City and New Bern will be Wolfpack Red.

      Out west, look for Boone and Asheville to be blue islands in a sea of red.  Boone might bleed over into Wautauga Co, and Asheville into Buncombe, but Mitchell, Avery, Henderson and Catawba will blunt that.  So will Cabarrus.

      The best chance O has is the urban counties from Mecklenburg east to the Triangle.  Charlotte/Meck went for Obama last time even more so than Wake.  Durham and Orange are pretty much a lock, as is Guilford.  Forsyth could be an X-factor, especially since the Winston Salem Journal just endorsed Obama last week.  Chatham is another potential spoiler.  Siler City will no doubt carry ®Money, but Pittsboro is becoming more and more a liberal outpost because Orange co taxes are so absurd.  Alamance co is also bluing up for the same reason, but there just aren't enough lefties in Saxapahaw to cancel out Burlington, Graham and Mebane.

      If you look at the map from 2008, there are some deep blue areas in the state, but they're scattered.  Fortunately, they make up a significant part of the population centers, so even though the state map looks Very Red, the color coding is deceptive.

      Every pollster OTHER than PPP has pretty much conceded NC to ®Money.  Why is that significant?  PPP is the only major pollster that's BASED in NC.  And the consensus that NC is a lost cause has worked in our favor in a couple of ways.  First, we're not seeing the same shenanigans on election day -- at least not at the same level -- as they're seeing in "real" swing states.  Second, the ®Money campaign hasn't spent a lot of energy here, making it easier for the OFA ground game (which never actually left after 2008) to quietly go about its business under the GOP radar.

      Just remember, until 2006 nobody ever gave us a snowball's chance of hoisting the Stanley Cup either!

      I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

      by mojo11 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:10:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Forsyth County (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tomwfox

        will likely go Dem. It did last time. In the meantime, it voted 55% against the hate consitutional amendment vs. gay marriage. Plus, there's a huge A-A voting population.

        I voted downtown on the first day, and the lines were long (90 minutes total), and majority black. The Dem ground game is -- overused word but appropriate here -- awesome.

        So, yes. I think it's very possible. I think the entire Triad could go Dem. And fingers crossed that the state will.

        "There are no Americans at the airport!" -- Baghdad Bob
        "I’ve got a very effective campaign." -- Mitt Romney

        by Mnemosyne on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 11:08:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm basing my projections (0+ / 0-)

          a lot on the results of the Amendment One referendum in May too.  Which has merit, but doesn't account for the difference in turnout -- or the difference in the A-A vote which was not a solidified in May as it will be this time (i.e. the A-A voters were considerably more split on the Am 1 vote than they will be in the presidential election.)  Odds are that those who voted against the amendment will vote for Obama, but the converse it not necessarily true (i.e. those who voted for the amendment won't necessarily vote for ®Money).

          I only hedged on Forsyth Co. because of the influence of Wake Forest U and the Southern Baptist Convention in that area.  But I'm not on the ground there, so I'm less in touch with the Triad in general and Winston Salem in particular than you are.  I feel very confident that the Triangle will vote with the President.  Oddly (or perhaps not) Raleigh/Wake Co will be the weak link in this area. Durham and Orange will be pretty solidly blue, and Raleigh itself probably will be only slightly lighter blue.  But when you get into Garner, especially over near the Johnston Co line it's another story.  Fuquay Varina and Holy Springs are probably pretty neutral.  Cary and Apex are probably pale pink to white since that's where you find the Real Money in Wake Co.  I imagine you'll find a lot of "House Divided" situations in those precincts.  Charlotte/Meck is another study in contrast. on the one hand it's like a Southern Wall Street with all the banking that goes on there.  But once you come down to street level, the picture changes dramatically.  The 1% (or maybe 5%) are prominent there, but not especially numerous.  Gastonia/Gaston Co could go blue as well, if the minority vote is strong there.  The burbs around Charlotte though, Kannapolis, concord, Belmont, etc could really go either way.  Even if some wag DID say recently that NASCAR fans break toward Obama.

          I've been saying for MONTHS that the candidate that ignored NC would do so at his peril, but what happened was that BOTH candidates basically ignored us.  I guess they were reading too much into the polls.  Electoral-vote.com showed NC as a dead heat (49-49) this morning, and I'm inclined to agree.

          Hopefully tomorrow night my girlfriend and I will be celebrating a win by taking our dear friend out for dinner at the Torero's at Cole Park in Chatham Co.  She (our friend) is a chief precinct judge who's been working her butt off this cycle.  If anybody has ever earned a free dinner, it's her.  Of course she may be too exhausted still, in which case we'll defer until the weekend and just go celebrate at Elmo's Diner in Carrboro.

          I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

          by mojo11 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:21:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Did you read (0+ / 0-)

            MattTX's series on early voting. Excellent stuff, and his prediction last night was for a narrow Obama victory.

            I think Forsyth offsets the WFU and Baptist effect with Winston Salem State U and the NC School of the Arts. And not all WFU peeps are Repubs, especially the faculty.

            Plus, as with the other NC urban areas, there are a lot of quiet progressives here and more moving in all the time. My suspicion is that their numbers are offsetting the retired white guys who golf with a 3 handicap.

            We'll see, soon enough.

            "There are no Americans at the airport!" -- Baghdad Bob
            "I’ve got a very effective campaign." -- Mitt Romney

            by Mnemosyne on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:39:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've been reading MattTX's diaries (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mnemosyne

              almost religiously.  I think if the early voting turnout is any indication, we'll see possible record numbers again this time.  Which historically has worked out well for the Dems.  I just wish Dalton could ride Obama's coattails.  The idea of McCrory having at least 2 years off the leash with a GOP legislature is terrifying.

              I'm a Raleigh native so I've seen the subtle shift in NC politics over 5 decades.  And it's an evolutionary process -- which is slow by definition.  I really had a lot of hope that a more progressive character would reveal itself back in May when Amendment One was on the ballot.  That was one of the most disappointing votes of my long life.  It wasn't that it passed as much as the margin by which it passed that was disturbing.  And I really felt that the opposition was investing too heavily in a single message when it was much more than a single-issue vote.  To their credit, they stayed on message to the end, I just felt like there were a lot of missed opportunities.

              But that was May, and now we have a chance to reclaim some momentum. Unfortunately we won't have a chance to put it to best use for another 2 years.  Barring, that is, a situation where McCrory, Tillis, Stam et. al. completely screw the pooch and do something impeachable.

              I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

              by mojo11 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 01:31:52 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  I agree. I'm a precinct chairperson for about (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mrsmarks, JamieG from Md, Mnemosyne

    six precincts. It cold and rainy with a little sleet mixed in. My AA precincts are jamming. And AGAIN the Democratic organization is awesome. Romney poll workers huddled in their cars while Dem poll workers enjoy hot coffee, sandwiches, handwarmers and umbrellas delivered to them by superior organization. No time for more. Had a short break while waiting for the next load of support to be delivered to my polls. We can do this!

    "Speak the TRUTH, even if your voice shakes."

    by stellaluna on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:12:34 AM PST

  •  6 votes for Obama in NC today from my family (5+ / 0-)

    4 in rural Western NC and 2 in Durham.

    By the way, all of us are white NC natives. Not all white Southerners are the racist idiots portrayed here.

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:26:46 AM PST

    •  Proud to be . . . (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, Mnemosyne

      . . . an old country boy trapped in a white body.

      Romney: Stubborn, dumb, dishonest, predictable, responds poorly to pressure, and for sale. What''s not to like?

      by tomwfox on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 09:54:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  True dat! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tomwfox

      In the urban areas of the state, folks are pretty tolerant and civil.  Out past the tree line is a different story, but it's a generational process.

      I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

      by mojo11 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:23:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's more complex that that (0+ / 0-)

        The 4 WNC votes from my family includes 3 voters in their 80s and one in his 50s.

        I think it's a more a matter of education than location, which is why Republicans have put a big 'ol target on public education in NC and across the country.

        NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

        by bear83 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 11:40:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Also true. (0+ / 0-)

          "We'll never get the smart people to vote for us" is the closest thing to truth in advertising I've heard from a GOP candidate in a long, long time.  But historically, our rural counties here trend red while the urban ones trend blue.  There may or may not be a causal relationship there, but there is certainly a correlation.

          If there's cause and effect, it's probably due to a lack of resources in the more rural and/or poorer counties that hold their public education systems back -- which works to the advantage of the GOP since the uneducated are more malleable.

          And with a Republican majority in Raleigh, unencumbered by a Dem governor (probably) after today, look for DPI to take an even bigger hit over the next 2-4 years.  With the probably coronation of Pat McCrory today, it becomes absolutely critical that we retake the General Assembly in 2014.  Starting with the 33 ALEC-owned legislators headed by ALEC Poster Boy Thom Tillis.

          I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

          by mojo11 on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 12:58:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  He's not going to win there (0+ / 0-)

    let it go. not going to happen. He's going to get trounced with election day voters just like last time! If he thought he had a chance to win there don't you think he would have campaigned there at least once in the last month?

    Too many people are having their intelligence insulted while being strung along by J. Messina's empty bluster and bravado about all this early voting! Messina is just pumping you up with false excitement in the hopes that you'll help volunteer for the campaign or donate. Not because he actually believes what he's saying! Unfortunately too many people easily fall for this stuff. You are setting yourself up for a let down!  

    •  Thanks anyway . . . . (0+ / 0-)

      But I can come up with my own bluster and bravado without any outside help. Did you bother to read what I wrote?

      Romney: Stubborn, dumb, dishonest, predictable, responds poorly to pressure, and for sale. What''s not to like?

      by tomwfox on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:36:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes i did (0+ / 0-)

        my comment still stands.

        •  Sorry (0+ / 0-)

          You can't pass my test without demonstrating some minimum level of comprehension. So far, not.

          Romney: Stubborn, dumb, dishonest, predictable, responds poorly to pressure, and for sale. What''s not to like?

          by tomwfox on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:43:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  What test (0+ / 0-)

            you claim that you think he can win there even though it's a long shot. i say it's an even longer shot and its not going to happen. You demonstrate a loose relationship with reality!

            •  It's an . . . . (0+ / 0-)

              It's an intelligence test.

              Why do you say, "it's an even longer shot and its not going to happen."?

              Romney: Stubborn, dumb, dishonest, predictable, responds poorly to pressure, and for sale. What''s not to like?

              by tomwfox on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 10:59:46 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  an intelligence test... (0+ / 0-)

                OK man. I was under the impression you were expressing optimism about O's chances in the state? Apparently it was some clandestine IQ test.

                I say it's an even longer shot because O would have at least showed up there ONCE within the last weeks of the campaign if he thought he was actually going to win there! I can't even remember the last time he was there? And no, having M.Obama show up once is not enough! If campaigns believe a candidate has a chance to win they actually campaign in that place! J.Messina is FULL OF IT.

                •  What? (0+ / 0-)

                  What is your fixation with J.Messina, and what does J.Messina have to do with what I wrote?

                  Your reasoning is that President Obama has not personally visited North Carolina since September and therefore he cannot possibly win the state.

                  President Obama has not personally campaigned in Hawaii either. Do you think he will lose Hawaii?

                  Romney: Stubborn, dumb, dishonest, predictable, responds poorly to pressure, and for sale. What''s not to like?

                  by tomwfox on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 11:23:27 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Your concern trolling (0+ / 0-)

      is duly noted, UID #620093.

      Thank you for sharing.

      "There are no Americans at the airport!" -- Baghdad Bob
      "I’ve got a very effective campaign." -- Mitt Romney

      by Mnemosyne on Tue Nov 06, 2012 at 11:11:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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