Its never too soon to look at what the Senate holds for 2014.
Did the Dems build up enough of a cushion to insulate them in 2014, where they will be facing a similar-to-2012 20-13 difference in seats up for re-election?
Maybe.
First up:
Democrats should immediately approach Susan Collins and offer her whatever swag she needs to become an Indy like King and caucus with the Democrats. Mainers have proven they'll vote for an Indy, and she's getting primaried anyway - so she may as well do it now and gain some power.
Predictions below the swirly.
SAFE DEMOCRAT
Delaware - Chris Coons: Please please please let the witch run against him again.
Iowa - Tom Harkin: I have not heard any talk of his retirement. If he retires, this one is a toss-up.
Illinois - Richard Durbin: No sweat here, especially since either Durbin or Schumer will be next Maj. Leader.
Michigan - Carl Levin: Unless he retires, this seat is quite safe.
Rhode Island - Jack Reed
LIKELY DEM
Massachusetts - John Kerry: Rumors are he's the next SOS replacing Clinton. Dem governor gets to appt his successor, and I'm assuming Scott Brown will run. Will be lean-dem without Kerry in a non-Pres. year in that case.
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu: I almost placed her in the safe column, but LA is too red a state at this point. With a Jindal challenge this could move to toss-up quickly.
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg: If he retires (he tried that once) this goes from Likely Dem to Lean.
New Mexico - Tom Udall: They'll claim this is a target, but I think he'll quickly put them out of their misery.
Virginia - Mark Warner
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller: If he retires, this is a toss-up.
LEAN DEM
Colorado - Mark Udall: If his opponent is batshit insane, becomes Safe Dem.
Montana - Max Baucus: With Testers win and with a solid bench (Schweitzer), I'm putting this as Lean Dem. Will Schweitzer primary?
New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen: She'll be a top target but given the Presidential results, she's probably pretty safe.
Oregon - Jeff Merkley: Could become Safe quickly depending on his opponent.
PURE TOSS-UP
Alaska - Mark Begich: Depends on how batshit crazy his opponent is.
Minnesota - Al Franken: Franken will be a top target and will likely land a top-tier opponent.
South Dakota - Tim Johnson: Depends on how batshit crazy his opponent is.
DEMOCRATIC TOAST
Arkansas - Mark Pryor: Not even sure why he's bothering to run. Oh yeah - his opponent might talk about rape, so you never know.
North Carolina - Kay Hagan: NC did not go the Dems way. No way she survives here, even with a batshit crazy opponent.
UNCATEGORIZED
Maine - Susan Collins*: Yeah, I know she's not a Democrat yet, but she's getting primaried. If she goes indy she's safe.
SAFE REPUBLICAN - I don't see, without a batshit insane primary opponent, how these guys lose. Also not sure who would get a primary challenge? Alexander? Graham?
Alabama -Jeff Sessions
Georgia -Saxby Chambliss
Idaho -Jim Risch
Kansas -Pat Roberts (could retire, but still safe R even if Sebelius runs)
Kentucky -Mitch McConnell
Mississippi -Thad Cochran
Nebraska -Mike Johanns
Oklahoma -Jim Inhofe
South Carolina -Lindsey Graham
Tennessee -Lamar Alexander
Texas -John Cornyn
Wyoming -Mike Enzi
RESULTS
I'm guessing we lose Ark ,NC and SD, and maybe gain an Indy in Collins before 2014 - if things go badly we'll lose Franken and Begich. Still enough of a cushion to put us at 50-52 if things go bad. After that we'd be talking about losing NH and CO, in which case you can probably kiss MT and LA goodbye in an anti-Dem wave like in 2010.