Last night was pretty amazing. Obama won a second term with a clear and decisive mandate, we didn't have to stay up all night waiting for that one last swing state to come in. And we got some serious upgrades to the Senate last night. That'll be critical for what might be the most important acts of this second term, filling the inevitable Supreme Court vacancies and the rest of the Federal Bench.
Marriage Equality won in all 4 states where it was on the ballot, contrast that to 2004 where 11 states had anti-equality measures on the ballot. We've come a long way indeed. And it looks like in my home state of California we might have secured a 2/3 majority in both chambers meaning we can finally fix the incredibly broken taxation system here.
For the last four days I worked with the CREDO SuperPAC team in Carmichael, CA to take out Dan Lungren. It turns out we won by 184 votes! I'm exhausted from knocking 407 doors in those four days, but it's time to get back to work.
We progressives have a lot of organizing ahead of us and we don't have a minute to waste. Unfortunately John Boehner will retain the gavel in the House by a comfortable margin. He and the right wing echo chamber are already clamoring about how Obama doesn't have a governing mandate. So anyone who thought the Republicans might take a hint from the electorate and try to work with Obama and Senator Reid are going to be sorely mistaken.
I wanted to kick off a conversation about what I think that means for our organizing. These certainly aren't the only things to consider but this morning they are the thoughts at the forefront of my mind.
1. Time to play DEFENSE
By not winning the House we've bought ourselves another two years of gridlock. That'll prove frustrating for anyone who wants to work on advancing their issues and we'll pay for it at the polls in 2014 (more on that shortly).
But the real danger is the entire Republican party, and some within our party, are going to pursue dismantling Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in order to fix this fake debt crisis (just read a little Dean Baker on this). And honestly my bet is that if Obama feels like he's got a good deal he'll sign it. His first administration was characterized by dealmaking and refusal to buck Congress and I wouldn't expect anything different here.
So what does that mean for us? Well we should look to the social security privatization fight of 2005 when progressives stopped Bush from privatizing social security when Republicans controlled the House and Senate!
It's hard to find write-ups of this online but there were several main components:
* There was a coalition of groups with money, including labor, organized to fight it.
* The netroots influenced the media to make the issue toxic, even for a lot of Republicans
* Grassroots activists lobbied their Senators and Representatives, and not just Democrats, hard against it.
Since that time our tactics and institutions have advanced but we need to remember to apply that grassroots pressure to Congress and not waste time pushing President Obama. If those efforts fail then sure, we need to push for a veto. But that's not the first step.
I'd expect that many organizations will form coalitions with different tactics, but I'd expect Strengthen Social Security to serve as a hub of action. So sign up for their email list as a jumping off point.
2. 2014 will be like 2010 unless we take action
Since we're facing gridlock for the next 2 years and this is President Obama's last term, you can expect the 2014 elections to look like 2010 if we don't take action. That cycle will have the usual midterm drop off in voting, the electorate will likely be in throw the bums out mode (but don't expect that to benefit Democrats), and you'll likely be able to count on institutions like OFA (if it even exists other than as an acronym attached to the DNC) even less than you could in 2010.
So how do we fix that? Well it starts with getting involved in these elections as early as possible. Early financial support for democratic challengers will make a lot of difference, and that's the kind of cash the netroots is uniquely positioned to supply.
But more importantly, there were some great campaigns run this cycle. The AFL-CIO teamed up with MoveOn.org and I'm eager to hear about how that turned out. But the one I can attest to is CREDO's Take Down the Teaparty Superpac effort. This is what a small donor funded, grassroots effort should look like. Check out this infographic and read Becky Bond's post about what they put together. They went 5 for 10 last night if the current results hold, taking out some of the worst Republicans in the House against long odds. And if we could get several institutions to agree to pitch in for something like this and set aside their branding and desire to drive things, it could be a game changer for 2014.
And finally, we have to prevent Congress from doing dumb things that will make them easy targets in 2014. Part of that is preventing them from voting to cut things like Social Security and Medicare in some grand bargain. But the other part of it is getting them to use their position in the minority (and majority in the Senate) to actually espouse progressive values and put forth plans to turn around the economy. If we can say in 2014 that the GOP blocked X number of jobs bills that will be a good thing.
3. We have to build power
It may be a long shot federally for the foreseeable future, but progressives need to start thinking less about policy and more about building power. That may need to happen in state legislatures and at the ballot box in the short term.
How is it different? Well it's not necessarily about doing something like providing health care, services or protecting the environment. It's about strengthening your institutions and governing power.
We all know what this looks like on the conservative side. They've got a plan to break unions, they've got citizens united, they've passed voter ID laws and other restrictions on voting, they've undermined confidence in government and public institutions, and they've increased corporate power any chance possible.
But what would power building look like on our side of the ledger? A few thoughts:
1. A massive push for expansion and protection of voting rights at the federal level. The days of states being able to ram through measures to disenfranchise voters or tweak the voting experience because they stacked GOP operatives on some elected board need to end.
We shouldn't have to deal with Voter ID laws, anonymous donors buying billboards to scare voters, 9 hour lines in democratic districts while republican districts enjoy short waits, groups formed to intimidate voters or any number of other insane and disgusting tactics.
But more broadly than that, why shouldn't we have automatic registration when you turn 18? Why shouldn't it do things like follow your address as you update it with other government entities? Why don't we push for early voting and same day registration around the country? Or look at solutions like mail ballots that are proven to increase turnout?
Put simply, when people vote progressive values win.
2. We have to start doing things to claw back the erosion of middle class power in favor of corporate power and the power of the 1%. That ranges from removing roadblocks to unionization to doing things about problems like regulatory capture. It includes increasing penalties for violating laws such that they can't simply be perceived as the cost of doing business. It's even stuff like effectively putting payday lenders out of business by capping the interest rates they can charge.
In California we just spent a lot of money fighting Proposition 32, which was basically aimed at destroying unions by using deceptive language to remove the mechanism by which they fund themselves. Why don't we run a campaign to require a company's shareholders to approve all political spending including lobbying? We can even run it on the same good governance and accountability principles!
There are any number of other areas we could dive into here, but hopefully this spurs some thinking on this front.