Expanding on brooklynbadboy’s excellent diary with a more detailed analysis of potential filibuster reforms, I want to bring up the political part of the equation.
Likely political scenarios support filibuster reform as a low-risk, high-gain move – even the complete elimination of filibusters.
If things stay as they are now, Democrats will hold a 55 – 45 majority in the 2013 and 2014 Senate.
There is little to no risk to instituting substantial filibuster reforms starting this January.
In 2014, Dems will have to defend 20 Senate seats -- 7 in red states. Losing all red state contests and gaining none would leave Dems with 48 seats. But that’s not likely.
- Of the seven Democratic Senators in red states, four are very popular and would be favored to win:
Max Baucus (Montana),
Mark Pryor (Arkansas),
Jay Rockefeller (West Virginia),
Tim Johnson (South Dakota).
The other three Democrats holding Senate seats in red states are:
Mary Landrieu (Louisiana),
Mark Begich (Alaska)
, Kay Hagan (North Carolina).
I just don't see Democrats losing all seven of these, or any blue state seats in 2014, especially if the economy continues its current trajectory.
But even if Democrats lose control of the Senate in 2014, this is mostly inconsequential.
- In 2014, there is still a Democratic president, so having reduced filibuster powers as a minority party is less important.
- If Democrats enact filibuster reforms now that still leave intact principled filibusters, and Democrats lose control of the Senate in 2014, we would have no problem with keeping those as a minority party.
- If Republicans take a majority of 2015 Senate, they would be foolish to change filibuster rules to give the minority party (Democrats) MORE filibuster powers.
- And a Republican Senate majority in 2015 would be just as foolish to change filibuster rules to give the minority party LESS power – because the Republican hold on the Senate in the 2016 elections would be very tenuous.
- In 2016 the tables are turned. Republicans will have to defend 23 seats, seven of which are in blue states. So even if a Republican wins the presidency in 2016, there are many reasons to believe the 2017 Senate will be firmly in Democratic hands.
Bottom line: Filibuster Reform Now.