Skip to main content

The ignorant little twit media "reporter" at Politico, Dylan Byers, pens a paean to Nate Silver's accuracy today, obviously trying to make up for the ignorant, snide, dead-wrong, anti-math, anti-science rip he posted about Silver just last week.

Some of you may recall that after using his column as a megaphone to amplify criticisms of Silver from blowhard know-it-alls such as Joe Scarborough and David Brooks, Byers got hammered by readers who, you know, think that facts and math and science and stuff actually matter.

Last week, Byers thought he was being cute with his column title and his cracks about Silver's popularity among those who respect cogent and reasoned statistical analysis:

Nate Silver could be a one-term celebrity.

The New York Times's resident political predictor says President Barack Obama currently has a 74.6 percent chance of winning reelection. It's a prediction that liberals, whose heart rates continue to fluctuate with the release of every new poll, want to take solace in but somehow can't.

In addition, Byers showed his enormous ignorance of probability and math by clearly being unable to comprehend what Silver told him in an interview:
For all the confidence Silver puts in his predictions, he often gives the impression of hedging. Which, given all the variables involved in a presidential election, isn't surprising. For this reason and others — and this may shock the coffee-drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis. — more than a few political pundits and reporters, including some of his own colleagues, believe Silver is highly overrated.
With that gem of a paragraph, Byers gives himself away. As numerous readers quickly pointed out, Silver's "hedging" was not what Byers thought it was. Instead, it was precisely the way probability works.

Byers then goes on to quote the clueless Brooks:

"If you tell me you think you can quantify an event that is about to happen that you don`t expect, like the 47 percent comment or a debate performance, I think you think you are a wizard. That`s not possible... If there’s one thing we know, it’s that even experts with fancy computer models are terrible at predicting human behavior.""
Oh, really, David?

I won't even bother posting the Scarborough quotes that Byers throws up (pun intended). We already know what a jackass Scarborough is.

But Byers revisits his ignorance with this closing sentence in last week's piece:

What matters for Silver is that the president wins and that he ends up with a total number of electoral votes somewhere in the ballpark of whatever Silver predicts on the afternoon of Nov. 6. And even then, you won't know if he actually had a 50.1 percent chance or a 74.6 percent chance of getting there.
In between last week's ignorant drivel and today's half-hearted, chickenshit "make-up call," Byers used his column to take additional shots at Silver, including this crack in a piece that provides a platform for yet another rightwing hack, Michael Gerson, to rip Silver. Byers, once again putting his monumental ignorance of probability and statistics on full display, writes at the end of the column:
Just before noon on election day, Silver's model gives President Obama a 90.9% chance of winning re-election with 313 electoral votes. Should Obama win with something near that number of electoral votes, Silver will be treated like a hero. Should Obama lose. ... Hey, Romney always had a 9.1% chance.

Nice work, if you can get it.

And then there is today. Byers, now seeing that Silver called the vote percentages within just a few tenths of a point and the Electoral College within 10, pretends as if he was Nate's bestest buddy all along.
Yet Silver's model correctly forecast the winner in all 50 states. Florida, which he gave Obama a 50.3% chance of winning, is still up in the air -- but the 50.3% forecast more or less accounts for that.

Silver has been a huge asset to the Times since his model correctly forecast the outcome in 49 of 50 states during the 2008 election. In the days and hours prior to the election, roughly one out of every five visitors to NYTimes.com visited his blog, FiveThirtyEight.

But here's the best part of the piece and it comes in the last sentence:
Silver did not respond to requests for an interview.
Ain't that sweet?

Suck it, Dylan, you little twit. Hard to believe you still have a job.

Nice work if you can get it.

(Hat tip to a couple of posters below who alerted me to such an obvious closing line!)

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Meteor Blades, skybluewater, Sharoney, deminva, Alumbrados, paradox, tsackton, Angie in WA State, JWC, Joe Bob, Sylv, nota bene, DeminNewJ, CathiefromCanada, PrahaPartizan, vlajos, Chi, oofer, filkertom, alyosha, kate mckinnon, Timaeus, askew, Subterranean, glitterscale, cedubose, yerioy, houndcat, mickT, Geenius at Wrok, Joan McCarter, Gooserock, Rolfyboy6, peglyn, Susan Gardner, Bob Love, greenbird, sara seattle, alicia, MouseThatRoared, TheGreatLeapForward, Shockwave, cotterperson, SanJoseLady, richardak, OLinda, LynnS, Vico, Stein, Troutfishing, eeff, Mnemosyne, rubyr, etatauri, frsbdg, Pompatus, xynz, devtob, freelunch, Mumon, SallyCat, FyodorFish, the OTHER rasmussen, pollyusa, grover, sidhra, MarkInSanFran, Creosote, Birdman, kissfan, dpc, RubDMC, eyeswideopen, rasbobbo, Delilah, concernedamerican, redwagon, dalliance13, bronte17, sponson, indybend, lorell, DickCheneyBeforeHeDicksYou, fugwb, kalihikane, mik, annrose, sfgb, susakinovember, whenwego, highacidity, mkfarkus, mrblifil, Frederick Clarkson, taonow, mauricehall, denig, Molee, retLT, sngmama, dchill, itskevin, poe, PeteZerria, librarianman, Glinda, ctsteve, rioduran, griz4u, navajo, Cedwyn, Alna Dem, CocoaLove, sidnora, ManOutOfTime, Brit, wader, revsue, Redfire, IM, SneakySnu, ammaloy, kharma, hopesprings, ninothemindboggler, tidalwave1, caseynm, jhpdb, sockpuppet, TexDem, NYC Sophia, American Zapatista, CitizenOfEarth, pat bunny, Noodles, exiledfromTN, potatohead, goobop, NYFM, Penny Century, Sychotic1, The Zipper, raster44, DMiller, outragedinSF, seattledoglover, JayBat, Noisy Democrat, mrs katz, zerelda, Sembtex, mungley, randallt, KayCeSF, tomjones, NapaJulie, hayden, xyz, justmy2, rickeagle, eve, jhawklefty, Sassy, rickroks, sebastianguy99, Armand451, My Philosophy, wolverinethad, Longwing, sawgrass727, Ohkwai, Dirk McQuigley, vcmvo2, Skennet Boch, G2geek, Los Diablo, ExStr8, maybeeso in michigan, Bluesee, marina, 3goldens, Ckntfld, ichibon, caul, JanetT in MD, Freakinout daily, SherwoodB, stlawrence, democracy inaction, elkhunter, Bcre8ve, basquebob, dewtx, Mahler3, juliesie, stagemom, Brooke In Seattle, YucatanMan, Dobber, Laurence Lewis, Kevskos, Gary Norton, ratzo, Byrnt, eru, Beetwasher, majcmb1, Sun Tzu, GreyHawk, stevemb, Ice Blue, BayAreaKen, sunbro, kaliope, Tool, Shotput8, Floja Roja, sodalis, kerplunk, Pluto, Brian B, jj24, peacestpete, JanL, WayBeyondSoccerMom, terjeanderson, soyinkafan, bently, noweasels, xaxnar, Jim R, Over the Edge, begone, reddbierd, Philpm, Mother Mags, occams hatchet, Showman, Shirl In Idaho, Sanuk, hlee1169, kumaneko, Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse, Keone Michaels, 417els, Mr Bojangles, Clytemnestra, profundo, Russgirl, HoundDog, mr crabby, Yellow Canary, raptavio, liberalconservative, seefleur, victoria2dc, martyc35, kestrel9000, dougymi, ccmask, fromer, Shakludanto, fou, mystery2me, kck, hideinplainsight, blueoasis, SherriG, StrayCat, erratic, twigg, Rosaura, SadieSue, paul2port, tapestry, real world chick, FatPath, PapaChach, NewAmericanLeft, CF Perez, bleeding heart, el cid, sceptical observer, ER Doc, Dinclusin, dirtfarmer, middleagedhousewife, lazybum, Sardanicas, CA Nana, commonsenseseeker, Clive all hat no horse Rodeo, BB10, kurt, SD Goat, Statusquomustgo, Brunette, Bernie68, bstotts, jkshaw, nhox42, matx, Elasg, Temmoku, ms badger, markthshark, Little, Aaa T Tudeattack, cpresley, DBunn, Thinking Fella, The Knute, One Pissed Off Liberal, Sapere aude, gogirl2, bluicebank, A Mad Mad World, fabucat, gardenkitty, Cronesense, peagreen, Haningchadus14, Cat Whisperer, Loudoun County Dem, camlbacker, Deadicated Marxist, devis1, offgrid, gloriana, puakev, threegoal, blue71340, FishOutofWater, Mary Mike, la urracca, blut4rsky, yowsta, HeartlandLiberal, noofsh, gustynpip, Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle, suejazz, eOz, joedemocrat, newpioneer, Pengu1n, lcdrrek, Desbrisay, rantsposition, mbh1023, jayden, second gen, SeaTurtle, jnhobbs, Fireshadow, jhop7, gchaucer2, OIL GUY, Librarianmom, RudiB, CT Hank, Wreck Smurfy, uciguy30, GeorgeXVIII, leonard145b, madgranny, skod, homerun, Assaf, wuod kwatch, TomP, Empower Ink, gizmo59, W T F, JDWolverton, MKinTN, Light Emitting Pickle, tejanablue, skymutt, rogerdaddy, adrianrf, gundyj, KingGeorgetheTurd, mconvente, TruthFreedomKindness, left turn, BobBlueMass, ChocolateChris, HappyinNM, LizzyPop, zerone, Cordwainer, Sixty Something, last starfighter, Youffraita, Senor Unoball, Involuntary Exile, bythesea, elwior, workingforprogress, skohayes, wade norris, filby, Akonitum, Its any one guess, Therapy, monkeybrainpolitics, tofumagoo, smartdemmg, icebergslim, Jake Williams, triplepoint, TokenLiberal, Jeff Y, catly, home solar, Gemina13, jalenth, Boy Howdy, My Spin, southern and liberal, Keninoakland, Karl Rover, Nica24, palantir, Mayfly, mellow yellow, dmhlt 66, watercarrier4diogenes, Diogenes2008, princess k, statsone, JBL55, oldliberal, Old Woman, MrsTarquinBiscuitbarrel, maggiejean, BerkshireDem, multilee, Rhysling, McGahee220, J M F, aufklaerer, litoralis, bobatkinson, Carol in San Antonio, eltee, CanyonWren, Nebraskablue, Methinks They Lie, susanWAstate, earicicle, shopkeeper, mkor7, DefendOurConstitution, wuck, geebeebee, Kaili Joy Gray, TheOpinionGuy, Lopez99, papahaha, Denise Oliver Velez, fromcascadia, kevinpdx, Keith Pickering, Check077, stevenwag, sfarkash, mdmslle, abraxas, haremoor, jfromga, nancat357, MizKit, astral66, orangeuglad, futureliveshere, deviant24x, jpmassar, Larsstephens, DemFromPit, cassandraX, jriches, Railfan, smileycreek, brentbent, confitesprit, awcomeon, FogCityJohn, Captain Marty, NJpeach, barkworsethanbite, brunoboy, Tea and Strumpets, jethrock, Prairie Gal, fidellio, stunzeed, Orlaine, eb23, klompendanser, Aramis Wyler, Crabby Abbey, alguien, Kwamo, Anak, legalchic, 2questions, WisdomSeeker, gulfgal98, samanthab, pixxer, ItsSimpleSimon, OnlyWords, anonevent, DiegoUK, ThirtyFiveUp, sharonsz, rja, nirbama, BlueFranco, ericlewis0, CA Berkeley WV, bosshogg, wwjjd, fiercefilms, rasfrome, stevenaxelrod, cany, Actbriniel, JanG, Mister Met, ciganka, DB55, physci, Onomastic, sinnyc, Jane Lew, Maximilien Robespierre, Jasel, TAH from SLC, kerflooey, Front Toward Enemy, MidwestTreeHugger, agrenadier, Copernic, Liberal Capitalist, spooks51, Bob Duck, slowbutsure, sabo33, sostos, implicate order, henrythefifth, kirbybruno, Mr MadAsHell, La Gitane, poorbuster, BlueJessamine, Seitanist, lighttheway, OhioNatureMom, mujr, lillyspad, SoCaliana, Loubee, Outraged Mom, Late Spring, molunkusmol, zukesgirl64, Ace Nelson, sethtriggs, IllanoyGal, thomask, slooterdam, cyb1851, BarackStarObama, muddy boots, smoothnmellow, RfrancisR, floridablue, merrily1000, antooo, volleyboy1, pensivelady, bluedust, Crider, PhilJD, Imhotepsings, VTCC73, Caddis Fly, disconnect the dots, diffrntdrummr, StateOfGrace, bloomin, blue aardvark, kareylou, googie, Mentatmark, CoyoteMarti, Rashaverak, DEMonrat ankle biter, I C Mainer, No one gets out alive, Frank In WA, Mathazar, DataMonster, BlueDragon, YaNevaNo, quill, jacey, daysey, Liberal Granny, Pixietrixter, anodnhajo, DeadHead, StonyB, cwsmoke, angry marmot, TheLizardKing, Aji, Siri, MikeyB33, IndieGuy, foucaultspendulum, Trevin, nellgwen, joanil, Joieau, a2nite, Deep Texan, onepartyleftstanding, deanarms, CA ridebalanced, Mr Robert, Artful Euphemism, pittie70, doroma, New Minas, james321, avsp, AverageJoe42, Stance Like Ptah, Kayjay, Marjmar, databob, Windowpane, davethefave, 6 Super Bowls, TheLawnRanger, Blue Bell Bookworm, Chaddiwicker, DamselleFly, doesnotworkorplaywellwithothers, Vicar Hax, LiberalSage, Tod OL Mundo, broths, aresea, Yo Bubba, leeleedee, paccoli, howabout, LaraJones, Smoh, nice marmot, caseylaw, Hey338Too, The Beet, Ishmaelbychoice, Jim Domenico, MBishop1, ChristineM, Edmund Xu, Catkin, pianogramma, shinobi9, thatpj, librainseattle, stuhunter2, TimG831, Lib til im blue in the face, Sam Gurski, Obamalover20122

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site