Skip to main content

As of right now, President Obama leads in the popular vote by ~2.8 million and has 60.4 million votes. When it's all said and done, he will likely exceed 65 million and lead by more than 4 million, or more than 3%. See why below the fold.

State                         2012              2008    % Change    Vote Change
Alabama                        2,064,599     2,101,123     -1.74%    (36,524)
Alaska                          218,646     327,341     -33.21%    (108,695)
Arizona                        1,642,526     2,320,951     -29.23%    (678,425)
Arkansas                      1,057,302     1,088,936     -2.91%    (31,634)
California                   9,402,298     13,743,177     -31.59%    (4,340,879)
Colorado                      2,405,736     2,418,104     -0.51%    (12,368)
Connecticut                 1,507,467     1,649,589     -8.62%    (142,122)
Delaware                      413,844     412,412     0.35%    1,432
District of Columbia    243,348     266,871     -8.81%    (23,523)
Florida                    8,300,037     8,456,310     -1.85%    (156,273)
Georgia                        3,845,679     3,934,074     -2.25%    (88,395)
Hawaii                          429,494     456,064     -5.83%    (26,570)
Idaho                           649,653     663,119     -2.03%    (13,466)
Illinois                      5,091,061     5,578,195     -8.73%    (487,134)
Indiana                        2,595,024     2,773,343     -6.43%    (178,319)
Iowa                             1,563,943     1,540,646     1.51%    23,297
Kansas                          1,127,560     1,242,195     -9.23%    (114,635)
Kentucky                      1,796,807     1,832,109     -1.93%    (35,302)
Louisiana                    1,988,576     1,960,739     1.42%    27,837
Maine                           667,388     746,313     -10.58%    (78,925)
Maryland                      2,472,028     2,647,933     -6.64%    (175,905)
Massachusetts              3,128,134     3,050,675     2.54%    77,459
Michigan                      4,606,138     5,039,080     -8.59%    (432,942)
Minnesota                    2,915,694     2,912,071     0.12%    3,623
Mississippi                 1,200,397     1,289,864     -6.94%    (89,467)
Missouri                      2,744,935     2,936,633     -6.53%    (191,698)
Montana                        454,946     493,097     -7.74%    (38,151)
Nebraska                      765,083     811,923     -5.77%    (46,840)
Nevada                          1,011,105     969,831     4.26%    41,274
New Hampshire              698,983     707,611     -1.22%    (8,628)
New Jersey                   3,315,546     3,909,041     -15.18%    (593,495)
New Mexico                   770,588     830,979     -7.27%    (60,391)
New York                      6,158,084     7,674,784     -19.76%    (1,516,700)
North Carolina             4,494,682     4,324,212     3.94%    170,470
North Dakota                319,825     318,179     0.52%    1,646
Ohio                             5,349,918     5,771,684     -7.31%    (421,766)
Oklahoma                      1,332,019     1,464,941     -9.07%    (132,922)
Oregon                          1,540,078     1,840,779     -16.34%    (300,701)
Pennsylvania                5,589,084     6,046,231     -7.56%    (457,147)
Rhode Island                417,448     469,538     -11.09%    (52,090)
South Carolina             1,880,549     1,939,244     -3.03%    (58,695)
South Dakota                363,688     382,764     -4.98%    (19,076)
Tennessee                    2,438,431     2,616,566     -6.81%    (178,135)
Texas                           7,962,799     8,145,632     -2.24%    (182,833)
Utah                             920,384     971,185     -5.23%    (50,801)
Vermont                        298,139     327,350     -8.92%    (29,211)
Virginia                      3,704,181     3,735,475     -0.84%    (31,294)
Washington                   1,920,323     3,071,587     -37.48%    (1,151,264)
West Virginia              661,703     716,501     -7.65%    (54,798)
Wisconsin                    3,055,659     2,979,357     2.56%    76,302
Wyoming                        245,785     255,534     -3.82%    (9,749)

It may be ugly, but you can see that there are a lot of states that are down from 2008 to 2012 in total votes, some by quite a bunch. California is down 31%, or more than 4 million. While it may not reach 2008 levels, you can bet it's going to be at least 13 million. If we assume no states drop by more than 5%, we still have 8.2 million votes left to count, and I would guess we see most states closer to even than down. If we assume none drop by more than 3%, then it's 10 million votes. Even assuming a 50/50 split (won't happen since the biggest drops are in CA/NY/WA), Obama ends up with 65-66 million. Considering everything that has happened the last 4 years, a drop in support of 3-4 million is really a pretty strong showing!

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site