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Hold your horses, it is not over in Arizona for some key races, including the Barber /McSally congressional race and Carmona /Flake senatorial race, and possibly the Arpaio/Penzone race. Perchance we mourned too soon.
details below the fold and please comment with any updates on affected races and/or vote counting malarkey.

link to the article by  Rob O’Dell and Craig Harris article in the  The AZ Republic  and on Wed Nov 7, 2012 6:36 PM

For those who are wondering how many ballots are uncounted, information and  numbers below are excerpted from the article

Nearly 460,000 votes are still to be counted in Maricopa County, and more than 600,000 statewide...
... Pima County won’t even begin counting provisional ballots until Monday, and Maricopa County said it will take at least 10 days to tally all the ballots.

...Pima County has 80,000 early ballots and provisionals, Pinal has 27,000, Coconino has 11,000, Navajo has 5,600, Gila has 3,400 and Apache has 2,457.

... Cochise’s voter turnout was on 38 percent on Wednesday, they lowest of any county. The turnout could end up being about 70 percent.

...Pinal County had yet to process about 20,000 early ballots and 7,000 provisional ballots as of Wednesday.

...Maricopa County has 115,000 provisionals and 344,000 early votes to be counted.

(my note: Maricopa County Helen Purcell's office is the same office that printed the wrong election date on Spanish language voting materials)

Update: here is a petition you can sign  which will be sent to Helen Purcell's office in Maricopa County

Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:15 AM PT: As of Thursday, Nov 8, Barber is trailing McSally in CD2 by 81 votes. so far Zero provisional ballots have been factored into the count, and both the  early ballot count  and polling place counts are increasing.

follow the count in Pima county  here:

you can follow the rest of CD2 by looking for county results and selecting Cochise County, and select any county or select statewide to check on statewide  and other district races.

Originally posted to manyamile on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 06:06 PM PST.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

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Comment Preferences

  •  hellof a job, Arizona (5+ / 0-)

    don't you feel a bit like the slowest kid in the class?

    This Rover crossed over.. Willie Nelson, written by Dorothy Fields

    by Karl Rover on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 06:17:42 PM PST

  •  Nobody concede (5+ / 0-)

    until all the votes have been counted, please!

  •  AZ-2 is very close (11+ / 0-)

    Had been about a 1300 gap, but down to 420 now. Pima is the largest part of the district, but Cochise is strongly GOP so it will be a battle.

    Disclaimer: If the above comment can possibly be construed as snark, it probably is.

    by grubber on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 06:19:37 PM PST

  •  I envy you for your optimism. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    manyamile, Adam AZ, Larsstephens

    The free market is not the solution, the free market is the problem.

    by Azazello on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 06:23:59 PM PST

  •  Looks like a copyright violation to me. (0+ / 0-)

    C&Ping someone else's whole article is a gross violation.

    "Go well through life"-Me (As far as I know)

    by MTmofo on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 06:32:01 PM PST

  •  Cochise County seems to break 60/30 (0+ / 0-)

     or so..other races all broke along those oh too familiar lines on far...

  •  Is there any way to tell if you ballot has been (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sharon Wraight


    This kind of makes it seem like no early voting ballots have been counted.

  •  They have NOT counted early votes (13+ / 0-)

    PHOENIX (AP) - Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett says there's more than 600,000 early and provisional ballots statewide that have yet to be processed and counted.
    There were just over 600,000 early votes in AZ, which means they have not counted the early vote, including the votes of my entire family.

    •  well hell, then, i'm not going to talk with (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Erin in Flagstaff, Larsstephens

      my gin and tears voice yet!
       I know the GOP got the word out on  early  voting, but we went over and over the place getting dems on the PEVL, (Permanent early voter lists).and double checking them at the last minute.. so many people used it. including me...

    •  Counted early ones, but... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      manyamile, Larsstephens, AZGoob

      All the early ballots received over the weekend and on Tuesday have to be verified and counted still. Early voting numbers were the first to be released after the polls closed, but those were ballots recieved early enough to be included.

      •  so it sounds like early ballots received (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        early have been counted, but  many early ballots are lumped in with the provisionals because they either were turned in at polling place or maybe were received in the mail just prior to election day.. does that sound about right? thanks! i am getting a much better sense of it reading everyone's  feedback.

  •  AZ margin was unexpectedly wide in Romney's (7+ / 0-)

    favor. That was quite a disappointment in election night!

    I thought that a heavy Latino turn out would put AZ races very much in play this year.

    Lets see what we get from the early/absentee/ provisional ballots count. It's a total disgrace for the state officials to detain the counting process!!!

  •  How do you get so many provisional ballots (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    in one county?

    "We must be the change we wish to see in the world" - Gandhi
    "The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little" – FDR

    by smokey545 on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 07:36:02 PM PST

    •  i don't know, but (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      greengemini, LoneStarMike, AZGoob

      we had new voting districts and you did have to show up at the right place with an ID...if there was an address or ID problem or wrong polling place problem..provisional ballot, I believe..but still... this was gone over and over..
      don't have any idea if the flake robocall had an effect..i can't imagine it would really, as so many vote early....
      anyone know

      In Pima county could it be student voters? newly returning snowbirds? people going to old polling places in old district? these are wild guesses . got does seem odd

      •  actually , a lot of the above numbers combine (0+ / 0-)

        early and provisionals, so maybe the bulk are early ballots, which does make sense. a lot of people mail in early ballots here.  the maricopa numbers...115, 000 provisionals may not be so many considering the size of
        Maricopa population

      •  Going to old polling places in old district (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I'm in Travis County, TX (Austin) and we had new districts drawn up, too after the 2010 census.  Prior to this election, voters could go to any early voting center in the county during the early voting period, but if they waited until election day to vote, they had to go to the polling place in their assigned precinct..

        Since many polling places had changed after new districts were redrawn, our county clerk knew there would be some confusion as to where to vote on election day, so she was proactive and started a pilot program last year and voters loved it, and we'll be doing this from now on.

        From the Travis County Clerk website:

        AUSTIN – Voters asking the question “Where do I vote?” will find a simple answer this Election Day. “Voters like being able to vote at any Early Voting location, and now they have the same option on Election Day,” DeBeauvoir said. “With Vote Centers on Tuesday, November 6th, voters have the choice of voting at any of 207 polling locations within Travis County.”

        Thanks to Travis County’s Vote Center program, eligible voters will be able to vote anywhere they see a Vote Here/Aqui sign. Travis County Clerk Dana DeBeauvoir expects Vote Centers to make finding a polling place for the November 6, 2012 Presidential election easier than ever. *All early voting and Election Day neighborhood polling places will serve as Vote Centers in Travis County on Election Day.

        Not only did it eliminate the problem of people going to the wrong polling place, it made it easier for everyone to vote.  You just voted at whatever place was convenient for you.  Could be near your work, near where you pick your your kids up, in a grocery store where you shop.
      •  several reasons (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        manyamile, AZGoob

        A big reason for provisional ballots is that many people get on the early mail-in ballot list, but don't realize that the ballot they recieved in the mail is their official ballot. They show up on election day to vote instead, but they have to get a provisional ballet.

        The mail-in ballot system is still new-ish, especially for newer voters. We'll all get better at warning people to treat those mail ballots as gold.

        The ballots can still be dropped off on election day, and those are the early ballots that still need to be counted. They have to be verified first, thus the big numbers left to count. It seems that having this convenience in voting is great, as your vote can be submitted early, but it also means that counting all these votes can take longer.

        I also did read that there seemed to be a lot of voters that showed up, but were not on the rolls. I'm not sure what's the situation with that.

    •  Increased Hispanic and student (0+ / 0-)


      You can't keep a mighty tree alive (much less expect it to thrive) by only spritzing the fine leaves at its tippy-top. The fate of the whole tree depends on nurturing the grassroots. - Jim Hightower

      by PSzymeczek on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:16:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thank you for the link! (4+ / 0-)

      good, the story is getting out.

      Randy Parraz and volunteers have provided  such a huge service to Arizona  this past year.. tirelessly dogging Arpaio , working to register new voters,  keeping the issues in the news. thank goodness for them... with watchdogs like that, maybe the story will get out , justice will be served ,and votes will be counted little by little , in the valley of the sun. I hope  they blow the lid off it, if there is dirt, and from the sounds of it, there's a lot of it.

  •  here are some registered voter numbers to ponder (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ivote2004, AZGoob

    Total AZ voter Registration as of  March 1, 2012
        3,151,615 active

    Rep. 1,134,094 (35.98%)   Dem. 952,907 (30.24%)   Lib. 22,530 (0.71%)   Other 1,037,007 (32.90%)  Grn. 4,929  Am. 148

     59.3% of registered voters are in Maricopa County.

     so 59.3 % of 3,151,615 voters is  1, 868,908  of AZ registered voters are in Maricopa county.

    Now, I know this does not include the large # of newly registered voters since March 2012, but ,  115,000 provisional ballots would  represent  6 % of the ballots if there was 100% turnout, correct? (please check my math!)

    so that would be an increasingly higher % of the provisional ballots  to  total ballots  the lower the turnout is...

     i don't know what the turnout was, or what the new voter registration numbers were since March.... but that does seem  like  the maricopa provisionals  might be in the ball park of  8% or so?

     makes me wonder what is normal %

    •  yes, and the turnout is typically more like 60% (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      manyamile, AZGoob

      of registered voters.
      Here is an article from 2008 -
      Maricopa had 100k provisional ballots.
      Turnout (voted counted at that point) was 64% of 1.7 mil

      They had about 120k Early votes to count on election day.

      So the number of provisionals is similar, (10% higher) but this year they totally slacked on counting early ballots, somehow failing to count over 300k in advance of the election.

      the provisional numbers are not good, IMHO. Not in 2008, not now.

      so, if we have(including early ballots) 64% turnout this year, .64 * 1.8 million =  1.1 million. so 115k provisionals represents 1 in 10 ballots in Maricopa county, or 10% This is an exceedingly high number. Something is wrong in Maricopa county.

      here is a pew report from 2008 - We are evidently highest in the nation:

      In 2008, the provisional ballot rate ranged from 0.01% in Vermont to 6.6% in Arizona, with a national rate of 1.7%.

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

      by biscobosco on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 10:43:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Looks like we have a Republican Congressperson (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    manyamile, sneakers563

    in CD-2--Martha McSally.

    100% of the vote is in according to AZCentral.

    The sad thing is...I feel nothing except this: Fuck Barber and Fuck McSally and Fuck the Democratic Sheeple who wanted Barber over Heinz.

    Hopefully I won't be going to medical school here. This state is the Southwestern Mississippi and I think we deserve the worst possible outcomes here unless we wake up.

    Romney = Nixon without the sweating problem

    by YoungArizonaLiberal on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 08:13:50 PM PST

    •  i'm seeing conflicting info (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Erin in Flagstaff, AZGoob

      on this ...doesn't seem to jive with the 'we can't possibly count all the early and provisionals yet...according to azcentrals own article this evening...

      i understand your sentiments but i would not go so far as to say we deserve the worst possible outcomes.
      what we do deserve is a better, more effective democratic party ...but then i am a newbie here. in my county the demographics just aren't with us yet... the fact is ,lots of people here are conservative and beyond conservative. i think you have to be tough and or an eternal optimist to last very long in anywhere but  certain liberal pockets...
      I liked Heinz, but evidently  he did not get the money or the support behind him this time, that's the facts..but if McSally does carry the district...she is an unknown and can be challenged in 2 short years. 2 short years.  and in 2 short years the makeup of the state dem  leadership may change. the electorate is already changing.
       Someone like Heinz needs to come back even stronger, even more prepared...i don't think one election means anything in the life of a good public servant...
      i'm asking you not to get soured because you got bucked off the horse  once. get back on, Arizona needs  young liberals. things are going to change , state demographics will change and if your young you can be part of a new Arizona not a crusty old arizona.. or not, it is your choice, but for heavens sake don't wish ill on the people you leave behind.

    •  i don't see where this race has been called yet (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      not saying i am optimistic but it is still too close to call  and ballots are still being counted, as far as i can tell, as of wed evening

    •  The race isn't over yet (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      They had 80,000 votes left to count this morning, and say it will be "days" before they are done.  McSally's margin was 1300 this morning and is now down to 400.  It's moving in the right direction.

      Plus, I know you're one of Heinz's biggest supporters.  I like Heinz on the issues, but I don't share your opinion of him as a candidate.  I can't imagine he'd have done better than Barber.  I don't know if you were at the Drinking Liberally meetup when he spoke, but I was, and while I found him to be a nice guy, I didn't think he was particularly inspiring.  He doesn't have the name recognition of Barber.  In addition, he has real ethical issues he needs to put to rest.

      To believe that markets determine value is to believe that milk comes from plastic bottles. Bromley (1985)

      by sneakers563 on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 09:08:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  i agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sneakers563, AZGoob

        I was just looking at the numbers and realized that Barber actually did better than Obama and  Carmona here in Cochise county,  so actually Barber was the highest performing Democrat here.. so hats off to Ron Barber after all!
        I did like Heinz but he was only polling ,what 17% in the primary?.something like that..and that just would not have carried him in this race. and yes there was the other stuff...timing, the ethics kerfuffle, justified or not, there was no time to sort it out with the compressed crazy # of elections this year,  the fact that Barber was carrying Giffrd's mantle etc etc,

        but in 2 years i don't think Barber will be back, unless  he pulls this thing out of a hat....and we'll want  a strong candidate whoever it may be, my head hurts even thinking of a future election tight now though, still have a figurative hangover from this one...


    •  100% is a lie (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      manyamile, AZGoob

      a real baldfaced lie they put on the "unofficial results" webpage.

      It means that 100% of the precincts reported election-day totals. Since Early votes count fo 50%  or more of the totals now, that 100% means very little.

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

      by biscobosco on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 09:27:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  ok , but how do you explain this? (0+ / 0-)

        on the returns page it clearly says the following  and gives a breakdown of polling place votes and early ballot votes
        (this is for Pima county only)

        Choice/Polling Place/Early Ballots Prov. Ballots /Total%
        BARBER  29,473      72,507         0            101,980  51.44%
        MCSALLY 32,831      63,101          0            95,932   48.39%
        Write-in     163         179                0            342     0.17%

        •  same breakdown for cochise county (0+ / 0-)

          showing breakdown of polling place  vs early ballots..not showing any provisional ballots

          Choice/Polling Place/Provis. Ballots/Early Ballots Total    %
          MCSALLY    12,764     0              5,383       18,147  60.73%
          BARBER    7,216     0           4,457             11,673   39.06%
          WRITE-IN     46             0          17            63          0.21%

        •  right. I don't get your question (0+ / 0-)

          That shows that quite a few early votes have now been counted, but shows no provisionals. we have no idea yet how many early ballots remain outstanding for Pima county.

          We could make some kind of estimate given the fact that  today Barber racked up another 5k votes and McSally maybe an additonal 3000 or so?

          We know: 54k Pima county early ballots were not counted as of early this AM.
          We know that about 8k more votes were tallied to the AZ-02 race today.

          We don't know how many Early votes in Pima County are in the AZ-02 race, but it should be mostly AZ-02, and Grijalva's district, with a small amount in AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)

          But if say half of early votes still uncounted were AZ-02 (ie 27k) then Barber will probably still make some major gains there, as well as with say half of the provisionals (another 10k or so for his race)

          "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

          by biscobosco on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 09:55:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  numbers i posted were from the website which (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            said it had been updated at 4 PM today.
             and the numbers above only show how many early ballots have been counted, not how many were not counted and /or bundled in with provisionals statistically, and yes, my point was ,none of the CD2 counties are showing a single provisional counted, but they are showing a lot of early votes counted.

            You have a much better handle on the district make up than i do.I sincerely hope the numbers do add up for Barber. i hope his gains outpace mcSally's . I am not thinking it is over til it is over..

            I just checked the state page... Maricopa is the only county they definitely have as 'yellow' , which in AZ terms must mean it is a mess. also , I cringe when I  Ken Bennett's face on the offical election return page, ugh.

  •  cross reffing another diary on same topic (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    biscobosco, AZGoob
  •  looking at the CD-2 results (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Erin in Flagstaff

        here are the votes from Pima and Cochise counties.
    a closer look at the results shows that no provisional ballots have been included in these totals.
    Barber leads in Pima county and it might  make sense that Barber would also have more provisional ballots cast for him in Pima..but his % lead is pretty small.the problem is , the site doesn't tell me how many outstanding provisionals  there are or how many of those are in Grijalvas district vs. Barbers...
    AZ says  Pima has 80,000 early and provisional,  yet pima already shows they have counted over 135,000 early ballots, so ,oh hell I haven no idea how many uncounted provisional ballots are out there ...probably  it is too close percentage wise  in Pima for Barber to make up those 400 plus. but far as i know it hasn't been called

    Pima CO
          Votes     Percent    
    BARBER, RON (DEM)         101,980     51.44%    
    MCSALLY, MARTHA (REP)         95,932     48.39%    
    Write-in         342     0.17%    
    Total         198,254        

    Cochise CO
              Votes     Percent    
    MCSALLY, MARTHA (REP)         18,147     60.73%    
    BARBER, RON (DEM)         11,673     39.06%    
    WRITE-IN         63     0.21%    
    Total         29,883        

    mcSally 114,079
    Barber, 113,653
     difference 426 votes

    •  you can look at the arizona state elections page (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      manyamile, AZGoob

      to see the breakdowns

      According to Brad Nelson, AZ elections, 26,000 are provisional in pima county. I updated my diary which you reference above  to show that no provisionals have yet been counted as of today's totals.  in your diary you mention that Nelson says "Pima County won’t even begin counting provisional ballots until Monday,"

      WTF? I don't trust Nelson at all.

      Barber should easily be able to make up 400 votes and more with those provisionals.  There are probably some provisionals from Cochise County too, but should be fewer than in Pima.

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

      by biscobosco on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 09:36:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  thanks (0+ / 0-)

        i couldn't find the # of provisionals referenced.. and the AZcentral articles numbers didn't seem too accurate once i found the early ballot #... so i provisionals counted but it DOES look like early ballots are counted, would you agree..based on the breakdown I cited above?

        the only problem with the 26,000 number is this: how many of those are in Grijalva's precincts and how many in Barbers?

      •  also thanks for your diary (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        i missed it when i first scanned the  diary list. when i put this diary up, i didn't think anyone had one up, and this seemed too important to NOT mention

  •  I did poll monitoring on election day, in Tempe, (3+ / 0-)

    there were A LOT of "regular provisional ballots."  These fell into 2 categories:

    1) People who lost their mail ballot, or didn't realize that they could drop off their completed mail in ballot at any polling site (more about that in a moment).  These people were given a regular provisional ballot.  "The Computer" would have to check to make sure their mail ballot wasn't turned in and counted before "the computer" would count their provisional ballot.

    2) Voters who had moved within the county, but had not updated their address for election purposes.  They were also given a regular provisional ballot after showing ID with the new address.  Also, people who had a photo ID--usually a driver's license--where the address didn't match that of their current residence.  If they also brought proof of their new address, like a phone bill, car registration, etc, with the current address on it, they too voted a RPB.  

    The RPBs WERE NOT run through the scanner at the precinct.  The RPVs were placed in a locked bin that would be taken in to the county BOE to be opened up and entered later.  

    So on election night, the returns posted were likely only the regular ballots that went through the scanner.  In my precinct there were roughly one dropped off mail in ballot and also one provisional ballot for every scanned regular ballot.  In my precinct, minorities and women made up most of the provisional ballot voters!

    There will also be voters who voted a "conditional provisional ballot."  In the one instance I saw, the voter had moved in with her daughter and had a photo ID with her former address, but no proof of her current address.  She has 5 days after election day to present the proper proof of residency to have that vote then counted.

    So in the close races I certainly hope no-one conceded until all these are RPBs and CPBs are opened from their envelopes and counted!

    •  Thanks for this first hand info! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Erin in Flagstaff, manyamile

      Kinda what I was thinking. In AZ-02 it looks like only part of the Early ballots remaining were counted and they have given a big boost to Barber. I expect to see Carmona's numbers come up quite a bit as these are counted though not sure I can see him getting a win.

      "We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we know now that it is bad economics" - F.D.R.

      by biscobosco on Wed Nov 07, 2012 at 10:49:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  another weird thing is voter turnout (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Pima county 62 %
     Cochise county 38%

    it seems like such a difference would  give the Democrat an edge,
    maybe it depends on what parts of Pima county are in the district....
    if the numbers are true , barber did not get enought of a bump in the higher turnout Pima county to offset the lower turnout in Republican dominated Cochise county

  •  Cochise County turnout (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The first article in this diary mentions that

    ... Cochise’s voter turnout was on 38 percent on Wednesday, they lowest of any county. The turnout could end up being about 70 percent.
    I'm interpreting that to mean that the turnout totals aren't final. As more votes get counted and added to the system, I think the turnout percentage rises.  The 38% turnout total was based on what had been counted by Wednesday.  If the final turnout total ends up being 70% as the article indicated, then that would mean slightly more than half the voted in Cochise have been counted.

    I was watching my own county's election results Tuesday night and as more and more preceincts reported, the turnout % started rising, too.

  •  Still waiting for my early ballot to be counted... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The SOS website shows this for the status of my early mail-in ballot:

    Election Date     Ballot Return Date     Ballot Status
    11/06/2012       10/29/2012                ACCEPTED    

    Does anyone know what the "Ballot Status" shows when it has been counted?

    A mind like a book, has to be open to function properly.

    by falconer520 on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:25:34 AM PST

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