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No, this is not an alarmist rant.  This is a very optimistic and uplifting diary simply pointing out that Obama is going to CRUSH Romney in the final popular vote tally!

Because California has become primarily a vote-by-mail state (a majority of voters voted by mail this year for the first time in a California election), this means that the actual counting of votes takes a long time.  As long as your envelope is received by the end of election day, your vote will be counted.  

Here is a link to the report of outstanding ballots:

The great thing is that there are actually a lot more outstanding ballots than this because some counties haven't even revealed how many uncounted ballots remain.  But for the counties that have reported, there are 3,084,142 ballots that have yet to be added to the state totals.

Here is the breakdown:

Provisionals - 858,510
Mail-in ballots - 2,135,913
Other - 89,719

The CA SOS site refers to "other" as, "ballots that are damaged or ballots that could not be machine read and need to be remade, and ballots diverted by optical scanners for further review."

I think it's awesome that the state of California goes to such great lengths to make sure our votes our counted.

In any case, there are a whole lot more votes that will be added to the popular vote total, once these ballots are in.  They are also still counting votes across the country in the form of overseas/military ballots, absentee ballots, and provisional ballots.  Just in Ohio alone, there are over 200,000 provisional ballots waiting to be counted.  I believe that by the time all these millions of ballots are counted, President Obama will increase in the popular vote to more than 4 million and more than three percentage points.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Is that current? (5+ / 0-)

    It says November 6th... Have they not updated since?

    Just asking.  I have no idea how often the totals are updated.

    Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

    by pico on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:29:42 PM PST

  •  Cross fingers for Ami Beri - Can't wait to see (11+ / 0-)

    Dan Lungren unemployed!! It is headed to a recount.

    if a habitat is flooded, the improvement for target fishes increases by an infinite percentage...because a habitat suitability index that is even a tiny fraction of 1 is still infinitely higher than zero, which is the suitability of dry land to fishes.

    by mrsgoo on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:33:01 PM PST

  •  This is fantastic. The only problem is... (14+ / 0-)

    I actually don't have a problem with taking some extra time to tally every vote, as long as it's done properly. I actually never understood what the rush is all about--it's 130 million + votes, for heaven's sake.

    However, the downside of it taking so long is the perception that gets baked into the public consciousness. Even today, 3 days later with Obama up by over 2.5 million votes, I still have seen people insist that either he lost the popular vote or that it's "a virtual tie", etc., because they only looked at the popular vote tally once on election night and haven't bothered to look again since.

    In other cases, they see the numbers have gone up, but somehow the "extra" votes don't seem to "count" in their heads, which is the dumbest thing I've ever heard of.

    Of course, the MSM doesn't help things any by breathlessly reporting every development the first day or so...and then not giving a crap a week or so later when dramatic new numbers are released.

  •  But this SHOULD be an alarmist rant (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Simplify, deepeco, semiot

    because BACK ROOM TABULATION is only as good as its stewardship, and we need a democracy that can handle our worst days --not its best behavior.  Every system must be able to withstand a Katherine Harris or Kenneth Blackwell.

    Despite the increased turnout it provides, absentee and internet voting are 2d and 4th place methods of voting.

    But each time a voter opts for these methods another precinct closes.  Why?  Because the bean counters save a LOT of money doing vote by mail -and- the election officials would like an easier job, which vote by mail very effectively provides.

    And, the electorates LOVES the convenience.

    But, if accuracy is your desire, then VOTE IN THE PRECINCT where your vote will not be subjected to excuses to "spoil" your vote on the pretense of unmatching signature.


    Best practices:  Vote in the precinct and insist on hand counting, by random selection, at least a few of the races to double check the tabulation of the Optiscan (and that is the preferred machine), and then report the tally results BEFORE the anonymous ballots are sent on their journey to the centralized batch where who knows what ingredients (ballots) can be added into the mix.

    At least at the precinct we can ensure three things:

    1.  Real Person/One Ballot. That the person who is voting is a real person connected with one ballot and lives in a bona fide really address in the neighborhood

    2.  No Option to Spoil Legitimate Ballots. The signature cannot be thrown out by "vote remote" (which is machine created by Diebold that can calibrated tight or loose on signature matching such as is the case in Los Angeles) --and/or-- whether a person compared your signature to a signature profile created by ChoicePoint or some other contractor of the State to oversee the registration accuracy such as is the case in California)

    3.  Double Check Vulnerable Tabulation Machines. The vote tallies can be hand counted in the precinct -- at least some of the races -- to ensure the vote machines do not have a dual set of data sets (double books) --and/or-- have been violated via simple vote flip that is possible with very little computer expertise (which many official hacks -- from California, Florida, Gov't Accounting Office through to the Brennan Center for Justice has proven is possible.

    In other words, VOTE IN THE PRECINCT if you can and only if that is not possible, then opt for a 2d class voitng method such as absentee ballot voting.

    Separation of Church and State AND Corporation

    by Einsteinia on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:34:40 PM PST

    •  PS -- Please don't tell me Oregon LOVES their (0+ / 0-)

      vote by mail, because:

      1.  Oregon's system is 90% better than what other states call "vote by mail"

      2.  But Oregon's system still is backroom voting counting that is only as good as its current Secretary of State.  This last Presidential election a Clackamas County clerk was caught manipulating ballots.

      3.  Oregon's system has never been audited.

      Separation of Church and State AND Corporation

      by Einsteinia on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:37:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Actually, Oregon DOES love its vote-by mail! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        semiot, madhaus

        And Oregon audited their election in 2008 (per Common

        Post Election Audits: The 2008 post-election audit conducted showed that vote tally machines counted with close to 100 percent accuracy. While the hand count method employed allows for better tracking of specific machine problems and fraud, it does not provide the degree of count accuracy of the statistical sampling-based polling audit method. Common Cause Oregon supports retaining the current audit program with the improvements adopted by the 2009 legislature that came from a thorough review of the 2008 audit process. We would also support a pilot effort in one or two counties using the polling audit methods. Given state budget difficulties, obtaining foundation support would be probably be necessary, however, for such a pilot effort.
        Here is some info on Oregon's election audit law (per Citizens for election integrity Minnesota):
        Counting Method:

        Hand count only

        See Section 254.529, Subsection (1).

        Oversight and Conduct of Audit:

        The Secretary of State oversees the audit and conducts the random selection, while county clerks conduct the audit. See Section 254.529, Subsections (1) and (3).

        Timeline for Audit:

         The audit must begin no later than the 21st day after the election, and be completed within 30 days after the election. See Section 254.529, Subsection (5).

        According to Subsection (7) of Rule 165-007-0290., the manual audit cannot begin until after certification of the initial election results.

        The random selection is to be conducted no later than 5 p.m. the third business day after the day of the general election. See Subsection (4) of Rule 165-007-0290.
        Additional Resources:
        Oregon Revised Statutes - Title 23 - Elections
        Oregon Secretary of State Elections Division

        And as a matter of fact, a temporary elections worker got caught marking as few as 2 ballots, possibly as many as 6. Several hundred more have been quarantined and are being inspected. She got turned in by her co-worker. She'll get jail time. We don't like our elections fucked with.

        I really don't appreciate your incivility and rudeness. Armando 7/23/11

        by liberte on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:57:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oregon likes beers and t.v., too (0+ / 0-)

          But what is convenient is not always what is a best practice for the health of our democracy.

          The reality is that absentee ballots, and their inherent long chain of custody, is far less secure than counting ballots in a decrentralized local neighborhood BEFORE it is mixed.

          Oregon has is good because it's Secretary of State is not a partisan hack, but that will not always be the case.

          And yet Oregon still has problems, such as just one example here:

          This is yet another inconvenient truth we all have to accept and overcome if we want our democracy to remain the hands of the people.

          Separation of Church and State AND Corporation

          by Einsteinia on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:18:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh good god (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            madhaus, liberte

            Oregon has some of the healthiest people in the US.  

            The reality is that no matter how fucking hard you try you will ALWAYS have some problems.  Doesn't matter if it's a computer counting the votes or people doing it.  Doesn't matter if it's a private corporation handling it or the SOS doing it for the gubmint. Doesn't matter if it's done out in a public square or in backrooms.

            The reality is that there was ONE fucking incident of some asshole tampering with the votes and that person GOT CAUGHT and will likely rot in jail for a bit for doing it.  THE SYSTEM WORKED.  The next time someone tries they will think twice or they will also likely get caught.  If they don't, so what.  1/100000000000th of 1% of the total will have been compromised.  I think democracy will go on.

            This obsession with perfection when we already have something pretty damn good is fucking ridiculous.  I'd take the Oregon model of voting over the Florida or Ohio model ANY MOTHERFUCKING GODDAMN DAY.

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 05:05:35 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Would vote by mail work in Ohio (0+ / 0-)

              Hell No!

              Is it because Ohio's people are lesser than those in Oregon?

              Hell No!

              Is it because long journeys to centralized tabulators that count vote behind closed doors is not the smartest way to ensure the longevity of a democracy.

              Hell YES!

              Separation of Church and State AND Corporation

              by Einsteinia on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:46:02 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  sure wish everyone who's fucking with (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          madhaus, liberte

          the elections would face jail time!

  •  California mail-in ballots must be received (11+ / 0-)

    by 8 pm on Election Day, not postmarked on that day.

    The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

    by ybruti on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 09:35:08 PM PST

  •  California might have voted for one payer health (9+ / 0-)

    If the current results hold the Democrats in the California Legislature will have a 2/3 majority for the first time since 1936. That means that Republicans can't block any legislation for single payer healthcare. There is a movement for single payer called California Onecare that has got very close to getting legislation passed but for Republicans blocking it.

  •  How can they possibly predict ... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Simplify, Cassandra Waites, wu ming

    the outcome of the ballot initiatives with over 3M votes still uncounted?  It's one thing to predict certain political races, but ballot initiatives?  According to the number of votes already counted, the 3M is about 25% of the total vote.

    "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the universe." -- Albert Einstein

    by Neuroptimalian on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 10:13:01 PM PST

  •  Obama now has a 3 million vote majority (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    myboo, MBishop1, madhaus

    ...according to and that's without many of these California votes being counted, along with hundreds of thousands of other votes in mostly blue states.

    Pollster currently sees the percentages as O-50.5% R-48%, so Obama's margin is now up to +2.5%. That's likely to climb slightly along with his popular vote edge as all the votes get counted.

    So while this wasn't quite the landslide of 2008, it is a very solid win indeed, especially in a down economy.

    Nate's popular vote estimates of O-50.8% R-48.3% seem right on the money, validating the idea of extrapolating the national margin in some measure from the swing-state margins combined with the use of national polls.

  •  In my tiny little town, a vote for two parks dist. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    eeff, Lawrence, madhaus

    members remains incomplete with the second and third highest candidates being TWO votes apart right now. TWO VOTES. County has not tallied the provisional ballots OR the absentee ballots.

    They said it could be a week.

    TWO votes.

    Remember that the next time someone says that voting doesn't matter.

    202-224-3121 to Congress in D.C. USE it! You can tell how big a person is by what it takes to discourage them. "We're not perfect, but they're nuts."--Barney Frank 01/02/2012

    by cany on Thu Nov 08, 2012 at 11:23:06 PM PST

  •  Looking at the numbers on CNN's site... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madhaus, wu ming

    ...where they estimate what % of the vote has been counted in each state, and doing some quick calculation, there appears to about 10 million votes still not counted nationwide.  3 million in CA, 1 million in WA, 850,000 in NY, 400,000 in OR, etc... (in other words, mostly blue states).  The popular vote margin will grow considerably, just like last time.  In 2008, I remember that it was around 4-4.5% on election night, but ended up at 7.25% when all was counted.

    Article 196. Health care is a right of all persons and an obligation of the State, guaranteed through social and economic policies that provide...universal and equitable access to programs and services....

    by SLKRR on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:31:47 AM PST

  •  The beauty of this (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is the very REAL chance that Mittens ends up with 47% of the vote, when all is said and done. Poetic justice, I say.

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