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10:07 AM PT: FL-18: While there may be plenty of more legal wrangling ahead, GOP Rep. Allen West's request for an injunction to impound voting machines and ballots in Palm Beach County has been denied. West has a similar action pending in St. Lucie County, so at the very least, Patrick Murphy's campaign will have to deal with that one, too. And appeals are always possible. But this is a good start for Murphy, whose lead still stands at 2,456 votes, or 0.8%.

10:50 AM PT: CT-Gov: If you've followed PPP's polling, you know that Dem Gov. Dan Malloy, first elected in 2010, has seen some pretty rough approval numbers. That's probably due to Connecticut's difficult fiscal situation and some tough choices Malloy has pushed for, including a tax increase. But lately, Malloy's numbers have turned around, and PPP's final CT poll saw him surge from -19 to +12! Such a big shift always raises eyebrows, but that survey actually found smaller margins for Barack Obama and Chris Murphy than they actually saw on election day.

Something else happened on election day as well, though: Democrats maintained their margins in both houses of the state legislature, even though Republicans made a big push (centered around attacks over Malloy's tax hike). Malloy is spinning this as vindication for his efforts, which he says were necessary due to years of mismanagement by GOP governors. Republican pushback is amusing, with leaders noting that this was "the first presidential election year since 1992 in which the GOP did not lose legislative seats." In other words: "Hooray! We've hit rock bottom!" Malloy will likely still have a tough re-election fight on his hands, and there's always the "you never know what things will look like two years from now" mantra. But this is a good start.

11:11 AM PT: NY-St. Sen: I think this story actually says more about Dem Gov. Andrew Cuomo's presidential chances than it does about the New York state Senate, but in any event, Cuomo is refusing to take sides over the Senate leadership dispute that's sure to arise after Tuesday's surprise election results. As I explained the other day, Democrats may have won enough seats to claim the majority, nominally controlling 33 seats to the GOP's 30. But there are five wayward Dems (four members of the so-called "Independent Democratic Conference," or IDC, plus one inscrutable Simcha Felder), any or all of whom might cut a deal with Republicans.

Cuomo, a Democrat who apparently loathes the Democratic Party, has made no secret in the past of his preference for a Republican Senate—he's buddy-buddy with the GOP majority leader, Dean Skelos, and his fiscal instincts align with theirs. Hell, Cuomo even endorsed two Republican senators up for re-election. So just think about it: A Democratic governor refusing to say that he wants Democrats (who do, after all, have a majority, even if on paper only) to control the state legislature? That's really a hell of a thing. When it comes time to proving your partisan bona fides in a presidential primary, this kind of abstention looks like a serious black mark.

11:25 AM PT: And now here's a full piece on West's courtroom failure on Friday morning. In denying West's motion, the judge said that his request "fell woefully short of what's required" and found no evidence of any legal violations. Hilariously, West's attorney said they were "thrilled with the response today"!

11:35 AM PT: WA-01: Despite trailing by almost seven percent, Republican John Koster waited until Thursday night to concede to Democrat Suzan DelBene. Washington, as you know, counts ballots very slowly, and at last glance, under three quarters had actually been tallied. But there was never any reason for Koster to have hope, which is why he's finally given up. He also took a potshot at the GOP establishment in an email to supporters, saying: "Sadly, and for reasons untold, neither the National Republican Congressional Committee nor the Washington State Republican Party stepped up to provide us with anything more than token support." That should help ensure Koster will never run again.

11:46 AM PT: GA-10: So hilarious!

Charles Darwin, the 19th-century naturalist who laid the foundations for evolutionary theory, received nearly 4,000 write-in votes in Athens-Clarke County in balloting for the 10th Congressional District seat retained Tuesday by five-year incumbent Republican Rep. Paul Broun.

A spot check Thursday of some of the other counties in the east Georgia congressional district revealed a smattering of votes for Darwin, although it wasn't always clear, based on information provided by elections offices in those counties, whether those votes were cast in the 10th District race. And because the long-dead Darwin was not a properly certified write-in candidate, some counties won't be tallying votes for him, whether in the congressional race or other contests.

A campaign asking voters to write-in Darwin's name in the 10th Congressional District, which includes half of Athens-Clarke County, began after Broun, speaking at a sportsmen's banquet at a Hartwell church, called evolution and other areas of science "lies straight from the pit of hell."

Not bad for a guy who died 130 years ago and who isn't even American! (Broun, by the way, was otherwise unopposed for re-election.)

11:50 AM PT: NY-24: Even Hiroo Onodo came down from the mountains eventually: GOP Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle will reportedly concede to Democrat Dan Maffei on Friday afternoon, trailing by over 14,500 votes.

12:14 PM PT: NC-07: After seesawing a bit, Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre's lead over Republican David Rouzer has now shrunk down to 394 votes, or 0.12 percent, after standing at 507 on Wednesday. Provisional ballots are still being counted, and an official tally is not due until Nov. 16. At that point, whoever's trailing will be able to ask for a recount, which the candidate won't have to pay for as long as the margin remains within one percent.

1:01 PM PT: The Live Digest continues here.


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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:01:09 AM PST

  •  This may have already been discussed ... (11+ / 0-)

    ... but for those who haven't seen it, in GA-10 a write-in candidate made a good effort against Paul Broun.

    Charles Darwin .. received nearly 4,000 write-in votes in Athens-Clarke County in balloting for the 10th Congressional District seat retained Tuesday by five-year incumbent Republican Rep. Paul Broun ...

    A campaign asking voters to write-in Darwin’s name .. began after Broun, speaking at a sportsmen’s banquet at a Hartwell church, called evolution and other areas of science “lies straight from the pit of hell” ...

    Broun received 16,980 votes in Athens-Clarke County, and garnered 209,917 votes across the district.

    From the Athens Banner-Herald.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Love one another

    by davehouck on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:34:11 AM PST

  •  Obama Hispanic pollster: Obama 48% w/ Cubans (10+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:38:26 AM PST

    •  It's funny how Democrats (5+ / 0-)

      keep doing well, even better and better in some cases, yet we are still told by some it's not a bad sign for Republicans. (This is in reference to a blog post I read late last night, which really irritated me, that I am planning a longer response to this weekend.) I don't think it makes sense to say that these people will always and forever vote Democratic, but right now, it's becoming more and more of a disaster for the Republicans, especially in key states like Florida. The white vote, at least in states where it really matters, is much more elastic than the nonwhite vote. And unless Republicans change in some way, I don't see why they will get more of the nonwhite vote.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:46:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Feels high, but the trend is undeniable (7+ / 0-)

      Obama won 62% in Miami Dade, after reaching 58% in the wave of 2008. There's some significant movement. Whites in Miami (we do exist!) are 55/45 Dem and moving left rapidly as well.

      One of the real questions moving forward is just how strongly is Obama outperforming "Generic D". He's our Ronald Reagan, without a doubt, and whoever follows in his footsteps will struggle to hit Obama's lofty margins with minorities and youth.

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:29:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Gotta say, PA GOP did a masterful job (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, dc1000, WisJohn, James Allen, MichaelNY, jncca

    on redistricting.  It was a thing of beauty.  For them.

    http://www.cnn.com/...

  •  Thanks to everyone. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, MichaelNY

    The past few months have been busy, but I've been doing a lot more reading on this site (even the comments!) than my commenting would suggest. But I haven't had the chance to read much beyond the articles for the last week or so - any super interesting quirks in the results (best county performance by a third-party candidate, I dunno?), and why did we seem to do so poorly in the House relative to the Presidential swing states and the Senate?

    How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05

    by gabjoh on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:47:04 AM PST

    •  We didn't win the popular vote (7+ / 0-)

      by as much as we did last time, and gerrymandering, along with some races that simply turned against us, hurt us in a lot of ways.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:48:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup, that's pretty much it. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, MichaelNY
      •  Rove & Co. were a factor at the House level (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Congressmen, and especially challengers, are not well known and are a lot easier to define with outside money.

        (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

        by TrueBlueDem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:35:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  In which races? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:43:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  CA-21 for one (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TrueBlueDem, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            The John Hernandez attack ads predominated everything in the Fresno & Bakersfield TV markets.

            Terry Phillips for Congress in 23rd District of California.

            by hankmeister on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:03:22 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Critz definitely should have won (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            And all over the place our margins were ridiculously low: NV-04, NC-7, a bunch in CA, all way too tight. Obviously there are many factors that shape the outcome, but our candidates getting outspent 3-1 in race after race after race without question limits our upside.

            (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

            by TrueBlueDem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:18:58 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  All evidence suggests 3-1 is a gross (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              exaggeration.

              The FEC has $2,360,242.13 in Dem independent spending in NV-04 and $3,669,876.44 in Rep independent spending.  

              Hosford spent $1,360,730, and Tarkanian spent $1,178,871.  So the actual difference was $3,720,972.13 for the Dems, and $4,848,747.44 for the Reps.  Not 3:1, maybe 5:4.

              In NC-07, McIntyre spent $1,831,126, Rouzer spent $1,152,834.  There was $2,089,949.79 in Dem outside spending, and $3,869,520.26 in Rep outside spending.

              So $3,921,075.79 on the blue side,  $5,022,354.26 on the red side.  5:4, not 3:1.  

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:36:55 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Note. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Looking at these spreadsheets, it seems like sometimes they might be double-counting independent expenditures on each side, at least if you add them up naively.  I'm not sure.

                Also--had the same problem with my big diary on this--I really should be disaggregating primary and general spending.  I don't think either McIntyre or Hosford had to worry about that, but Critz certainly did.

                Let me try a different way for PA-12: $5,946,201.21 in outside spending on the R side.  $6,097,489.34 on the D side.  The FEC classifies those expenditures by "primary" or "general", and those are just general.

                On the other hand, check out campaign spending:

                Critz only spent $337,619 since 5/1/2012.  While Rofus spent $1,292,116 since 5/1/2012!

                Critz spent $846,197 from 1/1/2012 to 5/1/2012.  So it seems like he spent most of his money on the primary.  

                Critz has a money problem, but it was the traditional kind.  Outside spending was actually the only shot he had to keep up with Rofus, and it lessened Rofus' advantage considerably.  

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:54:27 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  we still haven't been able to make up (6+ / 0-)

      outside of the south for our losses in white southern areas.  Including all of the south and even border states like Oklahoma, Missouri, and West Virginia, we only have 3 Democrats left who represent very conservative districts: Barrow in Georgia, Rahall in West Virginia, and McIntyre in North Carolina.

      I wouldn't have a problem with this if we were able to make up for the losses somewhere else, but Republican maps in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Washington probably prevented that from happening.

      And another note, I think the only possible way forward in West Virginia and Arkansas to win even a single district is to concentrate all Democrats in 1 district.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:24:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  NY... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, MichaelNY

        NJ, and WA were not Republican maps.  WA was a commission, NY was court-drawn, and NJ was bipartisan (although the "neutral" ruled against us).  

        The rest I agree though.  OH, PA, WI, and MI screwed us royally.  A far map would have given us another 3-5 seats in these states right off the bat, and the ability to easily compete in another 10 or so given the right environment.  Probably not enough to get us to the majority right away (as the VRA and urban concentration of Democrats puts us at a disadvantage), but a base to build to by 2020.  

        •  essentially they were (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

          especially WA and NJ.  In New Jersey the independent commissioner chose the Republican map.  In Washington the map that was chosen gave Democrats a single additional Lean Dem seat, while weakening the open Dem-held district, and made the two swing Republican-held districts more Republican, to the point they weren't even competitive this year.  So as a result Republicans have 4 pretty safe seats, Democrats only were given hope to restore our 6 seats we had before re-apportionment, and it wasn't a sure thing.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:00:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  New York was also very much so (6+ / 0-)

            Republicans eliminated a Democratic leaning NYC swing seat that Republicans won on a fluke in a special election. Then they eliminated another Democratic leaning seat in upstate. McCarthy and Israel's Long Island districts both became a bit tougher, while King did get shafted a bit. Elsewhere, they made Nita Lowey's district substantially more Republican. Packed Buffalo into a super Democratic district for Higgins, while doing the same for Rochester and Rep. Slaughter. They dumped Tompkins county into a very Republican Southern tier district instead of in Maffei or Hochul or Hanna's districts. They made Bill Owens district absolutely huge and slightly less favorable by putting rougher areas of Sarasota.

            It was essentially status quoing most areas, and really shafting Democrats in 3 seats.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:25:45 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  thanks, I couldn't remember the particulars enough (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:00:54 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  well (0+ / 0-)

              clearly that Tompkins County thing wasn't as bad as we first thought since Shinagawa came so close with little help. Kathy Hochul really got the shaft though. After spending so much time in spring of 2011 making calls for her, I was quite disappointed to see her go down.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 03:22:41 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I disagree with your WA assessment (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            The new 10th district (mine) is strong D and will only get stronger D because of changing demographics. The 6th district is no less strongly D than it was prior to redistricting. It was an easy D hold and will remain so. The 9th became more D/less swing. The 1st is truly swing and DelBene's win shows that Ds can win swing districts. Even though the 8th is slightly more R than it was, Demographic changes will turn even the re-drawn district purple. Kittitas County is rapidly changing.

            The 3rd became more Republican, it is true. However, even that could change with a real effort to register the growing number of Hispanic citizens in the district and a strong outreach to Native Americans living in Skamamia, Clark and Wahkiakum Counties. The 4th and 5th are strongly R but even there real outreach to Hispanic communities could weaken the tight Republican hold. The area around Spokane is already purple.

  •  PPP IA 2016 primary: never too early! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, James Allen, Jeremimi, jncca

    Clinton 58
    Biden 17
    Cuomo 6
    Warren 3
    O'Malley, Schweitzer, Patrick, Warner <1 each

    Clinton would crush if she runs; not a real surprise. Apparently Gillibrand and Kobluchar were not included in the poll for some reason, but I imagine that at least one will run if Hillary doesn't. The only thing I'm really surprised about is that Cuomo has 6%, while O'Malley, Schweitzer and others have less than 1% each. What has he done to get a greater name-rec and more support than the others?

    http://www.politico.com/...

    •  They thought she would crush (9+ / 0-)

      last time too.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:19:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sure, but (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, bumiputera, WisJohn, Jeremimi

        None of those candidates screams dark horse like Obama. I see little chance of mass momentum swelling for Cuomo, Patrick, Schweitzer, or Warner. Maybe for Warren, but she's far too liberal to win imo. I'm rooting for Hillary. I think we need a moderate for 2016 or the 8 year itch will be overwhelming and the last thing I want is a President Rubio.

        21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

        by gigantomachyusa on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:25:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Just saying reading into these polls (8+ / 0-)

          isn't very useful.  I imagine this time HRC really would clear the field, but not because of that poll result.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:28:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, none are Obama and I think Hillary (5+ / 0-)

          is more popular now.

          I also dont see any significant opposition to Clinton if she decides to run.

          •  I think Clinton is the favorite but (8+ / 0-)

            I will go crazy for the next two years whenever someone says "Clinton is more popular/most popular politician/so popular".
            Right. Because she has been Secretary of State for four years (Sec of States always are) far from active politics.
            The MINUTE she steps back in, she will be just as polarizing as she was before and Republicans who praise her now to create a wedge with Obama will suddenly remember all they hate about her.
            So, yeah, despite my high reservations about her, I think she is a strong frontrunner, probably will win it and quite frankly will have earned it, is our best chance in 2016 but I hope the Clintonites are not gonna start again with the misleading talking points a la late spring 2008 because if there is one thing that can alienate me from them ...

            •  I agree (8+ / 0-)

              You are right, I've said the same thing about her favorable ratings when/if she steps back into the political world.

              But I think among Dems, she is even stronger than in 2008, and with less opposition(plus tacit or even outright support from Obama), it's hard to see her losing the primaries.

              Yeah, I really hope we dont see the old group of Penn, Schoen, Galston, Ickes, and others back on her team.

              Clinton + Obama advisers would be formidable in a general.

              •  That's my reservation (10+ / 0-)

                That's my main problem with them. I love Bill and Hillary as people but they just surround themselves with the worst people in the world.
                And unfortunately hearing Mark Penn has been advising Bill at the time of his convention speech does not give me hopes they learned their lessons.

                •  Yeah as Bernstein says (3+ / 0-)

                  elections are about candidacies, not just candidates, and HRC put together a pretty lousy operation last time AFAIK.  She certainly has some political skill as a candidate, but her candidacy?  

                  (As Fallows said, Obama is a bad debater but a good campaigner and--he didn't say this--an excellent assembler of campaigns.  I'd put HRC's skills in the reverse order.)

                  This is a longtime personal network (seriously?  They're still taking advice from Mark Penn?!).  And I have no reason to think a 4-8 year hiatus from active campaigning would improve things here.

                  That's not to say she'd be a good or bad nominee, but it's my biggest reservation about her, and in general about the "Clintons are magic" myth.

                  27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:26:06 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Another reservation (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    BeloitDem, dufffbeer, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                    On that "Clintons are magic" myth ...
                    Yeah, Bill campaigned actively and effectively for Obama. But let's remember that the ONE thing that won the election for Obama in crucial Ohio and probably most of the swing states was that Bain attack that destroyed Romney's image and helped fall attacks by painting him as an out-of-touch plutocrat.
                    Clinton was AGAINST this line of attack. Not only he advised against it behind the scene but he and many Clintonites PUBLICLY criticized it at the time.
                    Effective, Bill? Yes. But another warning sign their political instincts are not as unfallible as the media will have you. He did blow the most crucial call of the race.

                    And yes I think it was Buzzfeed who reported Clinton called Penn to help him write the convention speech. He called others, granted, but that Penn is still anywhere near his calling list says it all

                  •  Well, it all depends (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Jeremimi, MichaelNY

                    if Bill and Hillary have opened their eyes enough to see they need a fresh campaign staff, and to shake up their old clique which has proven quite incompetent in the new political realities. If Hillary really wants it, I don't see Obama stiff-arming her, and I could see many of Obama's top campaign staff arming a Clinton campaign.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:40:19 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I don't see Obama (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BennyToothpick, MichaelNY

                      having anything against it at all, you are right about that. I actually don't see him caring in any way about the primary to replace him to be honest.
                      That said, I am quite certain the Clintons would not hire former prominent Obama-ites. Clinton's primary endorsement this year proves they STILL have some lingering point to make about 2008.
                      I am resigned to it but there will be a strain of revanchism in a Hillary run - which I suppose is understandable emotionally even if counterproductive for the party.

                •  That's my ONE problem with Hillary (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, NMLib

                  Those people infect her politics and policy views.

                  They are a cancer.

                  And they are completely out of touch with today's political realities.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:27:40 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Old dems may remember Cuomo's father. (5+ / 0-)

      Also, he's been in the news lately due to Sandy.

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:38:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  As an enthusiastic Warren supporter (18+ / 0-)

      I don't want her running in 2016.  I'd rather she focus on the job we just elected her to do.

      30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      Truman: "The buck stops here!"
      Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

      by Marcus Graly on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:45:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hear, hear! (9+ / 0-)

        I get so irritated with all the ZOMG WARREN 2016!!!1!!!one!!! sentiment that seems to be running rampant in certain swaths of the blogosphere (DKE is such a haven from all that). People seem to forget the fact that, in order for a Democratic president enact progressive policies, he or she needs a congress with a enough strong progressive leaders to pass the legislation. And when a Republican is in the White House, the Democrats in the Senate have to be strong enough to stand up to right-wing policies to keep them from going too far. My hope is that Warren fills Ted Kennedy's shoes and becomes a long-standing "liberal lion of the Senate," just as he was. That Senate seat needs to be hers, for life!

        29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

        by The Caped Composer on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:22:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  She is 65, so 3 terms (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, jncca

          is probably the upper limit on her service.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:38:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  the statistically-average 65-year-old (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

            I read recently that the statistically-average 65-year-old American  now lives to age 85. Three terms, easy, & if she's feeling spry in 2030, she could run again and serve at least part of a 4th term.

            I totally agree that I want her to stay in the Senate, drafting and amending legislative proposals. Policy wonks are wasted in the White House (though I did hope Al Gore would win).

            A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

            by Christopher Walker on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:23:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I've said this a million times but... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dufffbeer, DCCyclone, askew, MichaelNY

      I don't think Clinton runs, even as Secretary of State right now, she looks tired, like she's worn out. Now, I think that Bill wants her to run (hence why Bill went out of his way to endorse every single last person that endorsed her in 2008 running against candidates who did endorse Obama or no one, regardless of any attribute). But she doesn't look like someone who has any interest in running a presidential campaign (and I doubt she's the type of field clearer that everyone thinks she is, others will run, so she can't just snooze through the primary or the general).

      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

      by NMLib on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:07:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Im from NY (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jeremimi

      so Im for Hillary or Andrew!!

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:34:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  relectantly for Andrew (0+ / 0-)

        just to make it clear! if Hillary dont run

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:49:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm from New York (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, gabjoh

        And I would vote for almost any other Democrat against Andrew Cuomo.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 03:35:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah I kno (0+ / 0-)

          thats why I want Hillary to run so bad!! After seeing him as Governor for the last 2 yrs, Im very worried.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

          by BKGyptian89 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 04:43:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hillary is not my favorite, either (0+ / 0-)

            I will consider her, but anyone who voted for the Iraq War Resolution has innocent blood on their hands. I'll add, though, that the saying "out of sight, out of mind" applies to Democrats as much as to Americans in general, probably, and I don't think that several years after the US withdrawal from Iraq, her total blank check to GW Bush and insulting speech trying to say that's not what she was giving him is going to hurt her much.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 06:04:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  There is only one goal. (12+ / 0-)

      And that is to stop Andrew Cuomo.

      To be honest, I support Hillary mostly on electability.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:59:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pres-by-CD (5+ / 0-)

    I've calculated presidential results by congressional district for Iowa and West Virginia, as they keep counties whole. Obviously these results haven't been certified, but they're probably broadly reliable:

    IA-1: 55.78-42.57 Obama
    IA-2: 55.59-42.45 Obama
    IA-3: 51.17-46.98 Obama
    IA-4: 53.49-44.75 Romney

    Note how closely these match congressional results everywhere except IA-3. The obvious conclusion is that Boswell's performance was appalling.

    WV-1: 62.21-35.51 Romney
    WV-2: 60.06-37.93 Romney
    WV-3: 65.02-32.77 Romney

    Yes, Romney did best in the district Democrats still hold and Obama did best (least badly) in the one Democrats haven't held for a decade.

    •  I think WV-02 has been best for Dems (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY, jncca

      (under the old lines) for some time now---2000?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:21:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Which really surprised me (5+ / 0-)

      in 2010 Boswell ran a great campaign. And truthfully, Tom Latham had a very small base in this district, while Boswell had represented most of it the past decade, and almost all the rest of it in an earlier district in the 1990s. I was surprised he did so poorly in the rural areas where he performed so well in in 1996-2000, and where he represented some portion in the State Senate for over a decade.

      He really should have just retired by damn, like Democrats have been trying to get him to do the last 3 cycles. That way Christine Vilsack could have run in the 3rd, which was better suited to her to start with.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:41:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  So what's the verdict on (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    RAND's polling. I know a lot of people were dismissive but they seem to have come close to the correct margin (or at closer than most other pollsters). Does it get a thumbs up now?

    21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!)

    by gigantomachyusa on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:21:42 AM PST

  •  I don't get why people are angrily (16+ / 0-)

    rejecting Charlie Crist. Look, I don't care that he pretended to court Tea Party folks while he was trying to win a Republican primary. It often happens that such folks swing to the left, as Crist has done, and he would be a fairly mainstream Democrat if elected. Even beyond that, he was a pretty moderate Republican who governed Florida with a remarkably fair hand and remains fairly popular with moderate votes in the state, especially in the Pinellas-Hillsborough region, which is the critical swing region.

    The real reason why I say "Let Crist try it," is because Democrats have no one impressive to run against Rick Scott. Dan Gelber? Please. Are we supposed to run some state legislator against Rick Scott? I don't see any Democrat in that body with the proven campaign skills, political base, and fundraising ability to take on even an unpopular Scott.

    And don't say Sink. I swear if one more person hopefully talks about Alex Sink as a Florida candidate for Democrats I'll...probably refer them to this comment. Look, I'll be damn direct here, Alex Sink went through 5 campaign managers in a 16 month period. Her fundraising was awful. Her messaging was all over the place. Her stump speeches were bland. She didn't inspire the base at all. And she failed to establish herself in debates with Scott. She lost to a candidate that Ted Strickland and Chet Culver would have cut off their right arms for. Her campaign was incredibly bad. Before McCollum got upset, she was headed for a crushing double digit margin defeat, and she still failed to take advantage of her early high single digit leeads against Scott. She has no future in the state.

    The only Democrat I'm willing to say Crist should stand aside for is 4-term Rep Kathy Castor, due to her famous last name and national fundraising connections plus name recognition in the St. Petersburg-Tampa region of the state.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 07:53:35 AM PST

    •  Not that I think she'd be interested but (5+ / 0-)

      what about Pam Iorio, the former Tampa mayor?  (I may be partial to her, because she's also an AU alum...)

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:00:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        She is talked about. Democrats have a good mayoral bench in FL actually. I think Buddy Dyer is interested and too bad Bob BUckhorn declined.

        •  Buddy Dyer is problematic (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, MichaelNY

          Bob Buckhorn is a bit of a non-partisan Democrat. But Pam Iorio is another Democrat I'd forgotten about, and she would be a very good potential candidate.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:24:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Interestingly (at least to me) (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          marieperoy, MichaelNY

          Dyer's son went to AU as well.  So I'm on board!  :)

          Actually, all things considered, yeah, we've got a couple of good mayors in the area.  Buckhorn's relatively new, so I don't mind that he declined already.  He's someone good to have in reserve.

          One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

          by AUBoy2007 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:28:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  What about Bill Nelson? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      He will be 71, but he ran once before for the office, and no one would be stronger.

      •  Nah, keep him a Senator. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kleinburger, KingTag, jncca, MichaelNY

        We've got bench problems, so I'd rather a bit longer of a shot take on the unpoppular incumbant over vacating a Senate seat that we would then have to defend.

        One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

        by AUBoy2007 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:08:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Would be defended in 2016, I believe (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          a presidential year.  Nelson could appoint someone like Kathy Castor, who would then have the advantage of incumbency.

          •  True. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            In the end, I suspect he's not that eager to run another race two years after the Senate one.  He'd basically have to start up again soon.

            One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

            by AUBoy2007 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:29:17 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

              But he'd clear the primary field and thus could wait till at least a year from now before starting up.

            •  And he is not a great candidate (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8

              The media (and neither was I) was not impressed with his campaign this year. He got very lucky Mack and the rest of the GOP field were such a disaster

              •  He's not? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                aamail6, MichaelNY

                He just got elected to his fourth term.

              •  What are you on about here? (5+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Paleo, bythesea, Swamp Cat, lordpet8, MichaelNY

                I just have to note, that while Mack underperformed expectations, it was Nelson's brilliant campaign and smart early attacks that put Mack deep in a hole. Nelson ended up way overperforming expectations this year.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:48:06 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Don't be aggressive please (0+ / 0-)

                  What I am "on" about is this: first of all i believe Mack was plenty disastrous on his own. And I am making a distinction between running an efficient campaign and being a good candidate. Nelson was zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz candidate which was good enough for this while his team was destroying Mack
                  Against another candidate it may not work.
                  I just was not impressed with him. Adam Smith in particular said Nelson had lucked out because he seemed a bit off-his-game.

                •  Oh and (0+ / 0-)

                  PPP's lat poll of the race had Nelson at a 44-41 approval. My saying Nelson is not that popular a candidate but ran a good campaign is not me being stupid. The distinction is clear.

                  •  You said he didn't run a good campaign (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    lordpet8, MichaelNY

                    Which he did. He ran a very good campaign.

                    Not that popular yes, but that's generally because of progressives and PPP finding high disapproval ratings for everyone.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:28:51 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  You're confusing me (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14, lordpet8, MichaelNY

                    First of all, it's true that PPP showed that in their final FL poll. But they also had Nelson only leading  51-46 in their last poll, compared to the actual margin of 55-42. I don't know why we should believe a poll, that was dead wrong on the measurable, confirmable element of its results should be right on an unmeasurable, ethereal element of its results. I especially don't know why the same poll, that we know in its measurable result was biased against one candidate, should be used to show something else negative about that candidate.

                    But secondly, you seem to be trying to have it both ways in this discussion. It is true that Sen. Nelson has had relatively middling approval ratings in most polls (although not as pessimistic as PPP has been, and that's not unique to Nelson, because PPP seems to have a house effect of negativity for everyone for some reason, which is why I'd never look at only there polls for favorability and approval ratings since they are often so far out of the mainstream for those questions) and being popular and being a good candidate are not the same thing, but you did say

                    he is not a great candidate
                    ... and that you "and the media" were not impressed by his campaign this year. But Neslon did just win by 13 points, against a sitting congressman, and outperformed Obama, someone who ran a great campaign and had middling approval ratings, worse than Nelson in most polls, by 5+ points. So, which is it? Because if Nelson is unpopular AND a bad campaigner, I think we need more unpopular bad campaigners like him. People so bad and so unpopular that they win. In landslides. Every election.

                    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:40:09 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  He was quite slow to ramp up, yes (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                marieperoy

                (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

                by TrueBlueDem on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:26:28 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  He ran for Gov once (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        marieperoy, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        and got trounced in the primaries by Lawton Chiles back in 1990. Plus I think he's happy in the senate.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:39:52 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Rachel mentioned (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that Pam Iorio was interested also

      •  Pam would be amazing (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        She is incredibly Popular here in Tampa. Castor would also be a good choice but i hope she runs for senate.

        I voted for Crist in the senate race. He governed from the middle instead of become a tea party tool. He is a pergect fit for our state and he has moved further left since leaving repubs. Im very partisan but crist has earned enough good will with me and my equally as socialist partner that we will vote for him for governor unless castor or iorio run against him. Sorry to all you die hards that dont live in florida but crist was a decent governor who cared about the people and listens to us.

        •  Iorio or Castor (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          marieperoy, MichaelNY

          But I think Castor will hold off for a run against Rubio in 2016.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:26:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Actually (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            A run against whoever runs to replace Rubio on the Rep side. Coz he can't run a FL Senator primary AND Presidential Primary at the same time, can he? I assume FL primary is not late enough to allow that in case he loses since the replacements would not be OK with waiting so late to jump in

            •  Actually, if I remember correctly (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              marieperoy, bumiputera, MichaelNY

              the Florida primary is very late, like August.  So theoretically he could jump back into the Senate race even if he vacates it.

              One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

              by AUBoy2007 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:40:26 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Would the deep Republican bench (0+ / 0-)

                let him freeze their chances until mid-February (or even later if he is one of the last men standing)? Plenty of ambitious GOPers down there. But you are right. If the primary is in August, he could. And Castor could spend the year going around pointing out FL is his second choice :)

          •  Isn't Castor's seat very blue? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, MichaelNY

            Doesn't mean she doesn't have campaign chops--but does she?

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:07:22 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  She is very politically astute (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              Plus she has statewide name recognition from her mother, Betty Castor (popular, almost won the Senate seat against Martinez in 2004). Her seat is very blue but she still overperforms most Democrats in Tampa and is generally well liked in the Tampa Bay region. Hell her district could shift 15 points more Republican and she would still win easily.

          •  NOOO!! (0+ / 0-)

            her best chance is when Nelson retires, and hold that seat. You see how the right wing foam at the mouth for Rubio, I think even though he's an empty suit, he'll be a strong incumbent.

            She has a much much better chance at retaining Nelson's seat. Like you mention before, with how strong and deep her last name runs in Tampa-St. Pete. she'll be slightly favored when that seat opens up.

            I hope she smart and gets into a race that she can win.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

            by BKGyptian89 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:45:34 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Problem was not Crist (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gigantomachyusa

      Problem was not Crist running as a Tea Party Republican to beat Rubio. Problem was him GOVERNING as a Republican when he was Governor. Problem was him being a lifelong Republican who only left the party when he lost an election and is now only transparently courting the Dem Party because that's his only chance to be in elected politics.
      There are PLENTY good faithful Democrats out there that will make good Governors.
      And even if loyalty and sincerity of belief don't matter to you, think about this this way: if he was so ready to backstab the Republicans to get ahead, do you really think he won't do the same to us? Ever heard once a cheater, always a cheater.
      He was NOT a good Governor when he was Governor. He stayed popular by being glib and playing up the handful of moderate moves he made to build an image in the media (which is why the media would have loved him as a US Senator if you know what i mean?).
      So no no no Crist should never happen and I bet you my right arm it won't.

      •  Don't obnoxiously capitalize words (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY

        from now on, if you want me to respond to you.

        I'll say it again, the only Crist is guilty of is being a politician. He tried to stay successful in his own party and failed, partly because Tea Party folks saw through his conservative act.

        As for his tenure as governor, I can offer several examples. For instance how he managed the 2008 elections compared to Rick Scott and 2012. His willingness to praise the stimulus. His long record of pro-choice politics. His environmentalism and record of supporting the Everglades. He was always a Republican yes, but he was always considered a likeable Republican and leader of the state's substantial moderate wing.

        My point was that Crist was a fairly good governor and a fairly good state senator. He generally supported teachers, opposed union bashing, and had a pragmatic fiscal policy. He remains fairly popular with center portion of Florida's electorate, and very well connected to business and fundraising networks. His political base is the critical Pinellas-Hillsborough area as well, and he has a solid record of being a good campaigner.

        I hated watching Tea Party folks do what you are doing now to various Republicans. People who switch parties always do it for good, and they generally shift further in towards that political ideology. Your points are moot.

        I don't believe that the top priority should be finding loyal or life-long Democrats. I want the party to be an open one, to send a message moderates and former Republicans who left because they no longer had a place in the party, have that place in an open and pragmatic Democratic party.

        There is literally one likely Democratic candidate who would make a good governor and has a real chance at competing against Scott and that's Pam Iorio (I think Castor won't run). Buddy Dyer has plenty of problems. Dan Gelber lost in 2010 and doesn't have a good political base. Ron Klein? Please. Alex Sink? Please.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:35:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Obnoxiously? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gigantomachyusa

          That's a way I write. No need to be insulting. I thought we were not supposed to make personal criticisms at each other.
          We disagree. Certainly not intending to be obnoxious.

          Yeah and on the substance. No Crist was not a good Governor.  Feel free to support him. Local Democrats won't let him become the nominee because they know (obnoxious bolding!)

          •  Well I didn't notice that it was your style (0+ / 0-)

            It just tends to be something on this site, that is taken as very obnoxious and condescending, usually insulting. So I mistook it.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:52:50 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Well said (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          Couldn't agree more.

          On another note I was born in Arkansas, can we mourn the loss of our state yet? :( I'm so sad about the state senate and also Tom Cotton.. yuck.

      •  Yeah, I don't get this Crist love either (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        marieperoy

        Are Florida Democrats that pathetic that they have to turn to a former Republican governor?

      •  Do you even live in FL? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Swamp Cat, ArkDem14, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Crist was a pretty popular governor and would have won in a cakewalk had he run again. He vetoed the abortion ultrasound bill that Republicans passed in the state legislature. He also vetoed a bill (which Scott later passed) that "reformed" Florida education and attacked teachers. Not to mention he would have not vetoed our light rail system that Governor Scott would not allow. And how about those early voting days and voting times? He also supports civil unions, I would not be surprised if he now endorsed equality.

        Yes he waffles (he opposes offshore drilling when it is unpopular, supports it when its popular). Just because he lacks a rigid ideology like we do does not make him a bad governor. We can't all have Elizabeth Warrens. The man speaks for what the people wants, generally. That is called representation. Florida is a moderate to slightly red leaning state. He governed generally from the middle and respected civil rights. If anything he will govern even more to the left if he is elected again.

    •  Iorio would be great (0+ / 0-)

      IMO

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:38:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is some really good information about Sink (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      I did not konw any of this. Previous to this I might have favored her return.

  •  More reason why Cuomo should and (21+ / 0-)

    will go nowhere with his Presidential ambitions:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    The Democratic governor said Thursday that he has "no intention" of getting involved in the looming fight between Democrats and Republicans over who will hold power in the chamber.

    "The Assembly will pick a leader, and the Senate will pick a leader. And I have no intention of getting involved in either situation," Cuomo said

    Cuomo, a Democrat, has repeatedly refused to say which party he'd prefer to see running the Senate. During the election, he endorsed only one senator each from the Republicans, the Democrats and the IDC.

    The governor Thursday said regardless of the outcome, he did not expect a return of the "dysfunction" that characterized the Senate when Democrats last had the majority in 2009 and 2010. That period included a paralyzing leadership coup and numerous corruption scandals.

    "I think they learned the hard way," Cuomo said. "The Democrats were in power. The Democrats then lost power because of the dysfunction and I think they learned that lesson the hard way."

    Cuomo has worked closely with Senate Republicans to win passage of key pieces of his agenda, including a property tax cap and pension reform.

    That is Cuomo in a nutshell. The guy is so cautious and self-serving he can't even work to support his party. Say what you will about Eliot Spitzer, but he agressively worked to take down the entrenched Republican interests controlling the State Senate, through a combination of appointing incumbent Senators in blue leaning seats to state office, and pushing for Democratic candidates. Cuomo couldn't even be bother to do anything but endorse Rangel, and didn't get involved in the Hochul race while other prominent state Democrats were.

    And then more generally, there's the issue that he isn't the least bit progressive, especially for New York. He's governed like an extreme effective, moderate NY Republican, not a Democrat, especially on important issues. I think if he ever runs for President progressives and Democratic activists, as well as unions, should make it their utmost priority to defeat him in the Democratic primary.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:03:06 AM PST

  •  Btw, can we comment (7+ / 0-)

    on how both Xeno and Sao were wrong about AZ-09?

    Sao thought Sinema would lose and Xeno thought she would win easily.

    As of right now, it looks like she's winning by about 2 points.

    •  Yes, this occured to me. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY

      I'll wait to see how Obama did in this district to evaluate Sinema's rervative performance, but it wasn't a strong showing for one or both of them.  Obama didn't do very well in Arizona so far.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:17:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  provisional ballots (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      There are several hundred thousand provisional ballots yet to be counted, and they are expected to significantly favor Dems. Don't be surprised if Sinema ends up ahead by 6 or 7 points. She was up 1.3% on election night. She's already up to 2.1% and there is a long way to go.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:33:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or that! (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

        I could still be right!

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:55:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Was the Repub that bad? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Sinema is a fairly liberal bisexual atheist in an R+1 seat. One word... HOW?!

          •  Few things. (7+ / 0-)

            1. The PVI is somewhat depressed by McCain's home state effect, although it doesn't seem like Obama would have done well here, yet.

            2. Sinema was also the state senator for 1/3 of the district.  Her opponent, while not a total Some Dude by any means, was the former mayor of a small, wealthy town outside the district's population.

            3. Sinema is a very skilled politician who has been building a state and national image and network for many years.  I wrote a diary about her early fundraising, which ranged from AZ Chamber of Commerce types to Norman Lear (she's on the board of a PFAW charity).

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:00:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Also her opponent (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            lied to the SBA or something.  And lost a primary in 2010, to Ben Quayle, and to some other people.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:04:53 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Those characteristics matter less these days (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, jncca, MichaelNY

            Tammy Baldwin is openly gay, very liberal and probably atheist.  I say probably because her bios seem to say 'no stated religion' so I don't know for sure.  She won statewid in WI by a good margin.

          •  it isn't really R+1 (4+ / 0-)

            Its PVI is distorted by McCain's run in 2008. Obama won it by 4 points in 2008, which would make it R+2 based on that alone, but the state had been consistently R+4 for several elections and then jumped to R+8 in 2008, i.e. McCain's favorite son status shifted the state's PVI by 4 points. Assuming that this effect was the same in AZ9, it was actually D+2 as of 2008. AZ9 has been shifting blue for a long time and I would expect it to come out D+2 or D+3 for this cycle once all the votes are counted.

            Sinema is also a better politician than most people think she is, especially the lazy national media sites who branded her as a crazy person for some comments she made years ago. She's very smart, photogenic, a good public speaker, and was able to push a number of bills through a GOP-controlled legislature. I would not be surprised if she ends up as speaker of the house.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:06:06 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That might surprise me. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              But I think she's going places.

              (I do think Tulsi Gabbard will end up as Dean of the House.  And she'll probably look only a little bit older than she looks right now.  They must have a fountain of youth in Hawaii or something.)  

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:50:59 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Never run for Gov or Senate? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:15:52 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I was half-kidding. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, MichaelNY

                  But I honestly think she'd do better (given how young she is and how safe the seat is) to pick a Congressional chamber and stick with it.  And since she's safe in her House seat, why not just stay there for 50 years?

                  27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

                  by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:28:48 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  My final prediction was Tilt D (5+ / 0-)

      Mayor Parker ran a pretty lazy campaign.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:08:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why aren't people talking about Chris Gibson (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dufffbeer, James Allen, MichaelNY

    for a Cabinet position or ambassadorship? He has the credentials, is inoffensive to progressives, and it would open up his seat in Congress.

    "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

    by xcave on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:15:20 AM PST

  •  I'm not too shocked Tester won MT-Sen (13+ / 0-)

    But I am shocked he won by a 4 point margin, assuming that holds.  The entire race I assumed there was no way it would be becided by more than 1 or 2 points either way.

  •  Updates: (14+ / 0-)

    Still 500,000 votes out in Arizona.

    About 3.5 million still out in California, including 1 million in Los Angeles county. Meaning Obama will be very close to his 2008 margin in the state, meaning polling in California was full of shit just like I said it was.

    For relevant house races:

    CA-10: 60,000 out in Stanislaus, 70,000 in San Joaquin.

    About a 120,000 votes left in Fresno which should correct some of Costa's wretched performance so far.

    About 150,000 out in San Bernadino and 100,000 out in Riverside. 500,000 out in Sand Diego. 300,000 in Orange. 100,000 out in Sacramento.

    All of these late ballots and areas should favor Democrats though, judging from past history and from Obama's margins in the counties where they're in.

    Of course, these estimates are based on 2008 vote totals, thinking they should be comparable.

    There are maybe 150,000 or so ballots left in Oregon. Washington is still a lagger, with 500,000 left to be counted.

    Probably 100-200 thousand ballots out in Texas. And it seems like, even with a downtick, provisional ballots, due to Husteds foolery, mean there are at least 150,000 ballots still out in Ohio.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:21:47 AM PST

    •  source? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      Where did you get your numbers? Your numbers are different than the California Secretary of State's numbers.

      LINK

      Terry Phillips for Congress in 23rd District of California.

      by hankmeister on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:00:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Politico (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Combined with Dave's Election Atlas for the 2008 elections in California.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:39:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  SOS numbers typically lag behind County results (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY, hankmeister

        Having followed the CA-AG race closely after the election, counties have the most up to date ballot information.  The way I understand it is that about once a day the county report to the SOS their outstanding ballots, but they may continue counting after they send that report.

        Here is Orange County's outstanding ballot count according to the County Registrar.  It amounts to 213,257

        Compared to the CA SOS report you linked of Orange County which is 224,336

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college)

        by Daman09 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:41:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the resource (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY, hankmeister

        looks like turnout is lower than 2008.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:44:07 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Do we think we can get marriage equality in IL (8+ / 0-)

    After the huge legislative gains? I mean, we now have supermajorities in both chambers!

  •  does anyone here see full control of Washington (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, gigantomachyusa

    by either party to be off the table for the next decade maybe even longer? I think that we're in an era of continued dealignment.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:30:17 AM PST

    •  Nah. (11+ / 0-)

      A bad downturn one way or the other and we could see another trifecta.  Hardly impossible for Dems to pick up 20-30 House seats in very favorable circumstances, or for Republicans to win the Senate in 2014 and then do a bit better in the open Presidential contest than Mitt Romney did against an incumbent Barack Obama when unemployment was going down, under other circumstances.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:38:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  At the state level (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      we're seeing partisan consolidation.  A relative lot of 'trifectas' and legislature supermajorities formed this election.  Others that were contrary to the partisan nature of their state declined or were broken.

      There's sort of a general role division of lower chamber (House, Assembly) and upper chamber(s) (Senate, Supreme Court) in states and federally that arises from their constitutional powers and process.  The lower chamber does economic particulars and public hysterias and sets the atmosphere and ethical level of governance.  The upper chamber(s) deals with the order of things- social rights, group hostilities, quality/quantity of management, how diffuse or concentrated power is and in what hands.

      We just had an election that confirmed two not entirely compatible facts: we have a massive economic problem that no one feels is satisfactorily dealt with that will need some fairly radical reforms (our side downplays this, theirs overplays it) but we think we have an order in affairs outside of the economic that we don't want severely disrupted or see sufficient reason to sacrifice.  Thus: Republicans to run the House and keep an economic reordering a public policy agenda priority.  But Democrats to run the Senate and serve to buffer to the extent possible all our other areas where the arguments are already decided from the economic reforms coming down the pike- incremental liberalization in social rights, favoring/enabling social and political integration, incremental renormalization of the income inequality problem, retention of the social safety net as now exists, a temperamentally moderate liberal interventionist foreign policy, etc.

  •  Since we're talking 2016. (0+ / 0-)

    Here's a question: Which current or recent Senators/Governors of either party have had the most impressive primary wins?

    I noticed in 2008 that Obama had won a more contested Dem primary than had Clinton or Edwards, and--coincidence or not--he won that Dem primary too.  

    Winning in a primary might take related and overlapping--but distinct--skills from winning a general election.  So who's got them?  I'd even count Gillibrand for her impressive performance in the "invisible primary" after her appointment.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 08:33:52 AM PST

  •  Fed judge goes hard on Husted (8+ / 0-)

    Good read from the Atlantic on Husted's shenanigans with provisionals:

    But late Friday, after business hours and just a few days before the election, Husted sought to back away from the court-ordered standard. By means of a directive, he instructed local election officials to reject any ballots where the information was mistakenly recorded, absolving poll workers of the responsibility to properly complete the form. It is impossible to know how many registered voters would be disenfranchised by Husted's directive. But it doesn't look like we'll ever have to find out. Judging from his demeanor Wednesday, Judge Marbley doesn't appear inclined to let Husted's directive go into effect. ...

    THE COURT: I do too. What concerned me about the 2012-54 directive is that it was filed on a Friday night at 7 p.m. The first thought that came to mind was democracy dies in the dark. So, when you do things like that that seeks to avoid transparency, it appears, then that gives me great pause but even greater concern. ...

    THE COURT: Mr. Epstein, I have said on the record that Mr. Coglianese is probably one of the best election lawyers who's been in my courtroom; maybe one of the best lawyers, period. I believe the same thing of you because of the nature of the work that you've done. Do you honestly believe what you just told me?

    http://www.theatlantic.com/...
  •  '16 NH primary: Clinton and Christie lead (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bythesea, ArkDem14, askew

    PPP

    Without Clinton, Biden up over Cuomo and Warren.

    Rubio second to Christie.

    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

  •  Is the old John McCain back? (7+ / 0-)
    I think comprehensive reform wont be easy, but I think it will get done. Taxes is the more tricky issue. There is less incentive for GOP to cave on that, since lower taxes is the core issue of their party. They need to decide if holding on to that is more important than getting a significant deficit cutting deal.
  •  So, what the hell is going on in AZ? (0+ / 0-)

    Obama's losing by 11? And the exit polls said a 5-point margin, and there's half a million uncounted ballots still or something? Is AZ counting votes like a Deep South state in the 1940s or something?

    Or on the other hand, have whites just worked themselves up into a racially polarized tizzy over there, and this is just the sort of Dem performance we should expect? If it's the latter, I think we can wave goodbye to thoughts of AZ becoming a swing state.

  •  Did Flake l in Arizona give Democrats false info (0+ / 0-)

    about where to vote which would mess up Carmona's chance getting more votes? That's what I've read, but I'm not sure how true it is. You know how these rumors can get out of control.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 09:14:37 AM PST

  •  These republican pundits are clueless (8+ / 0-)

    Brent Bozell says Romney lost because he didn't embrace and articulate conservative values and if he did he would have won in a landslide.  This sort of thing is what a good deal of the right wing is saying post-election.  Welcome to bizarro world.

  •  this sounds encouraging (18+ / 0-)
    One top Obama adviser, however, told ABC News that if the House GOP refuses to cut a deal with the president that includes some tax increases on the wealthy, the tax cuts will expire. One scenario the official discussed included the president barn-storming the country, telling the public that Democrats will put forward a bill to restore middle class tax cuts as soon as Congress convenes, and calling on them to pressure Republican congressional leaders to stop holding those tax cuts hostage in exchange for tax cuts for wealthier Americans.
    http://news.yahoo.com/...
  •  Bush actually won a higher percentage (15+ / 0-)

    of the Mormon vote than Romney.

    You can of course explain that by the fact that Romney simply underperformed Bush 2004 by at least 5 points, so it would make sense for him to fall a bit in almost every demographic group.  You all remember the breathless hype about "Obama down with women!", "Obama down with Latinos!", "Obama down with young voters!", and all that meant was that Obama was down across the board from 2008.

    Still, it is interesting that Mormons didn't show an unusually lopsided margin for Romney.

    •  probably saved Jim Matheson's bacon too! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:42:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2014 - will be like 2010 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chachy, tk421, MichaelNY

    This is still a bit down the road, but worth starting to think about.

    Because Republicans are increasingly dependent upon votes from old white people, Republicans are increasingly in a bind in presidential election years.

    But the flip side of that is that because Democrats are increasingly dependent upon votes from minorities, young voters, single women, etc Democrats are in a bind in midterm election years.

    The electorate in 2014 is going to look like the electorate in 2010. Yes, the electorate will be marginally more demographically favorable than in 2010 - but only incrementally. If we persuade ourselves that the electorate the 2014 electorate will look like the 2012 electorate, we are fooling ourselves just as much as the GOP poll-unskewers who persuaded themselves that 2012 would look like 2010.

    Increasingly, there is a back and forth biennial see-saw movement built into the structure American politics, because of where each party gets its votes. Dems are generally favored to win in presidential years, when there is higher minority turnout, while Republicans are generally favored to

    In the looming GOP civil war, whether or not the GOP needs to moderate is the big issue. The funny thing is that they do not need to moderate in order to win midterm elections when turnout is low - they only need to moderate in order to win presidential elections when turnout is high.

    The dynamic that will occur in this Republican civil war is that after 2008, some Republicans wondered whether the GOP would have to moderate. Then the GOP won in the 2010 midterms, which persuaded the GOP that there was no need to moderate.

    Again, the tendency now after 2012 is for some Republicans to wonder whether the GOP will have to moderate. But then, the GOP will win in 2014, which will dispel the notion that the GOP needs to moderate, just in time for it to once again lose (or at least to be structurally favored to lose) in 2016.

    Obviously Dems won't lose as many house seats as in 2010, but that is because most of them were already lost - in 2010.

    But let's take a look at the Senate. This is what it looks like to me generically, although obviously retirements, which candidates the GOP recruits, and whether or not those GOP recruits do the Angle-Buck-O'Donnell-Akin-Mourdock kamikazee routine matters.

    Alaska - Mark Begich - GOP Pickup
    Arkansas - Mark Pryor - GOP Pickup
    Colorado - Mark Udall - Dogfight, just like 2010
    Delaware - Chris Coons - Safe Dem
    Illinois - Richard Durbin - Safe Dem
    Iowa - Tom Harkin - Dogfight, possibly lean GOP if they can find a good candidate
    Louisiana - Mary Landrieu - GOP Pickup
    Massachusetts - John Kerry - Safe Dem, except for Scott Brown...
    Michigan - Carl Levin - Could be competitive
    Minnesota - Al Franken - Dogfight/could be competitive
    Montana - Max Baucus - Dogfight if the GOP can find a candidate
    New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen - Dogfight
    New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg - Safish Dem
    New Mexico - Tom Udall - Safe Dem
    North Carolina - Kay Hagan - GOP Pickup/Dogfight
    Oregon - Jeff Merkley - Dogfight if the GOP can find a candidate
    Rhode Island - Jack Reed - Safe Dem
    South Dakota - Tim Johnson - GOP Pickup
    Virginia - Mark Warner - Dogfight
    West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller - GOP Pickup

    And the only Republican held seat that is not in a deep red state, where Dems have any potential chance at all, is Maine.

    So I count about 6 seats in where the GOP will have an excellent chance - plus many more in purple states where the GOP will have an opportunity.

    •  As of now, don't think it will be as bad (10+ / 0-)

      There's a decent chance the economy will be better in 2014 than in 2010.

      There shouldn't be anything nearly devisive as the health care battle.  

      Republicans have nearly maximized their gains in the house.  

      Dems have a 6 seat cushion in the senate.

      The disaster of 1994 was followed by a wash in 1998.

      You're overly pessimistic.  Warner and Merkley will not be in dogfights.  And Democrats can certainly hold LA, AR and WV.

      •  Economy (0+ / 0-)

        There's no real reason to think that the economy will be materially better in 2014. The labor force participation rate is still way down, we are not adding jobs faster than the population growth rate, and there is no reason to think that will change. Every economic forecast says that it will be many years before a full recovery. If anything, there is reason to fear that the economy could get worse, if there are serious attempts to reduce "the deficit."

        The economy, immigration, and the possibility of entitlement cuts (don't touch my medicare!) will all be motivating issues for old white voters in 2014.

    •  Why do you assume midterms have to be bad (9+ / 0-)

      I know it was with an unpopular President but in 2006 Dems cleaned house with not a single House or Senate seat flipping to republicans.  If the economy rebounds I'll bet the mood in 2014 ia neutral or slightly better for Dems nationally.

      •  2006 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        (these are all house exit polls)

        In 2006, house exit polls say that Dems got 47% support from white voters.

        In 2008, Dems got 45% support from white voters.

        In 2010, Dems got 40%.

        In 2012, Dems got 39%.

        In 2014, Dems can count themselves very lucky to get a point or two above 40%.

    •  Wow, that's pessimistic. (7+ / 0-)

      I mean, I hardly have rose-colored glasses about 2014 - I think we're even-money to lose the Senate.

      But I think you're underestimating the value of incumbency. In particular, I think Landrieu, Pryor, Shaheen and Hagan should all be considered (vulnerable) favorites. Harkin I would expect to be in somewhat better condition, and Udall in Colorado in better condition than that.

      Begich I erally have no clue about - Alaska politics seem pretty idiosyncratic and I have no real grasp on them. But it seems hard to say that any incumbent is worse than 50-50 this far out (short of a Blanche Lincoln-type situation, which I don't think we have anywhere this time around).

      Plus there are a couple of obvious reasons to think 2014 won't be as bad as 2010: the economy is quite likely to be doing much better than it was then, and the Democrats will not have had unified control with which to pass their agenda.

      •  Plus in 2010 Dems took all the blame (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Because voters knew Dems controlled everything with large majorities.  Over the next two years it's a split government and most people know it.  They'll especially know it if the House leadership just outright refuses to even talk to the President and compromise on nothing.  If the President is reasonably popular in 2014 I'd hope Dems campaign against do-nothing republican Congress.

    •  you make Mark27 sound like bjssp (10+ / 0-)

      Turnout will be down in 2014, disproportionately from Dem-leaning younger voters, but you're missing the bigger point that 2014 is highly unlikely to be a red wave year like 2010 was. In 2010, the low-info swing voters all went GOP. In 2014, they should at worst split like they did in 2012 as the economy is likely to be somewhat better.

      Here is where I would put the Senate races:

      Alaska - Mark Begich - tossup with Parnell, lean D with anyone else, AK is no worse than MT generically
       Arkansas - Mark Pryor - lean D
       Colorado - Mark Udall - likely D, Udall is popular
       Delaware - Chris Coons - Safe Dem
       Illinois - Richard Durbin - Safe Dem
       Iowa - Tom Harkin - lean D at worst
       Louisiana - Mary Landrieu - lean D, Landrieu is the most popular politician in the state
       Massachusetts - John Kerry - Safe Dem, lean D if Kerry is SoS and GOP runs Scott Brown...
       Michigan - Carl Levin - safe D with Levin, lean D if he retires
       Minnesota - Al Franken - lean D at worst, Franken has decent approvals
       Montana - Max Baucus - Dogfight if the GOP can find a candidate (this I agree with, Baucus is not popular)
       New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen - lean D at worst
       New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg - will be open, likely D
       New Mexico - Tom Udall - Safe Dem
       North Carolina - Kay Hagan - GOP Pickup/Dogfight
       Oregon - Jeff Merkley - likely D at worst, non-toxic mainstream Dems seldom lose in OR
       Rhode Island - Jack Reed - Safe Dem
       South Dakota - Tim Johnson - tossup v. Rounds, likely R if Johnson retires
       Virginia - Mark Warner - safe D with Warner, tossup if open
       West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller - lean R with SMC, lean D with anyone else, coal Dems can still win here

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:51:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  2012 was not a red wave year (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        2012 was not a red wave year. In fact, Dems won (I believe) the house popular vote.

        And yet, the exit polls say that house dems only got 39% of the vote from white voters.

        With those kinds of numbers, in a midterm year, it is going to be very difficult for Dems - even respected Dems like Mark Pryor - to win in reddening states like Arkansas.

        And it will also be tough (if the GOP can find a credible candidate) in heavily white states like Iowa that are not so red, even though Harkin is a respected long-time incumbent.

        Dems will be fine in places like California, but there are a lot of Senate seats in states like AR, LA, and SD.

      •  I think Johnson is retiring (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but Herseth-Sandlin is waiting in the wings and should run a great campaign.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:37:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Rec'd in a large part (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Jarman

        due to the epic title line.

      •  Kay Hagan in 2014 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Is she really in that much trouble that her seat is being considered in the tossup/Lean R category? I know that NC Dems have taken a beating the past two cycles, but is she underwater in terms of her popularity? And have any big-name Republicans made their intentions known to challenge her? And if Hagan opts to retire, there's still a couple of statewide Dems like Roy Cooper and Janet Cowell who can possibly be looked to to make a credible run to succeed her.

        I personally like Hagan. She, Franken, and Begich were my favorites from the 2008 class. I would have put Landrieu as being more in danger in 2014 than Hagan.

        28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

        by BluntDiplomat on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:36:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  2014 being a midterm (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BluntDiplomat, MichaelNY

          could be a problem with regard to turnout, but I think Hagan has a good shot at winning reelection.

          Obama probably isn't too much of a drag, as he won North Carolina in 2008 and only narrowly lost it this time.  Dems have still won Senate seats lately in much redder states.  GOP gains in the state otherwise had much to do with Gov. Perdue's unpopularity and gerrymandering, neither of which is a factor in a US Senate race.

          Plus there's no guarantee that the GOP candidates that run will be particularly strong, or that they'll choose wisely from those that do.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:44:59 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I had an error in that post (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          It should be lean D.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:12:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I reject any seat but SD is gone (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, gigantomachyusa

        I think Tim Johnson hangs it up, especially because the Governor wants it regardless and will get it.

        That's the only one I surrender up front.

        WV is a tough hold, but Rockefeller is no worse than 50-50 to survive as of now, if he's the next Lincoln I can imagine it but I want to see polling that proves it before I buy it.  And even then the teabaggers are always there to flush away their chances in a primary fight.

        Landrieu I bet is more able to survive than some think.  Pryor will be favored outright.

        And I bet Begich, too, is naturally stronger than some think, a tougher out than some believe.

        After that, we're lookign at seats I feel better about...including Baucus, who it seems has repaired his image and recovered some.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 01:57:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's a real stretch (11+ / 0-)

      to assume that Democrats now face a permanent disadvantage in mid-terms, and a permanent advantage in presidential years.  That's a correlation that has never existed before.

      •  midterms (8+ / 0-)

        I think Dems have a structural disadvantage in midterms relative to presidential years, but it isn't all that big. It was exaggerated in 2010 because that was a historic red wave that followed a historic (since 1964) blue wave. I think it's likely to be dwarfed by other factors more often than not. For example, in 2006 the voters were older than in 2004 but there was still a blue wave.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:02:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The amount of racial polarization (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in our politics is also something that has not existed before (in the sense of white voter support dropping so much for Dems, not in the sense of e.g. the civil rights movement).

        The increasing influence of minority voters is a recent phenomenon in the Obama years. Dems have dropped back in White support dramatically, so a dynamic involving turnout differentials between midterms and presidential years that previously did not exist now exists.

        If Romney's polls, which assumed a 2010 electorate, had been accurate in 2012, he would have won.

        The reason they were not accurate is because the demographics were not accurate.

        But in 2014, the demographics will be much more in line with those assumptions.

        •  Obama's pull... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          With white voters was not historically low.  It's just historically low for winning a presidential election.  The fundamentals of the economy were still weak, and he was pretty ineffective in getting much of his agenda through (for reasons not entirely his own) which probably ate a few percent off his margins.  

          In addition, much of the decline with white voters has been confined to Appalachia and the Upland South more broadly.  While I think this speaks badly about the outcome of the Senate races in AR, LA, and WV, that's about all I think it says.  When you look at the Dakotas, or Montana, there has been no net shift to PVI.  Obama did a lot worse there than 2008, but the states themselves are no more right wing than when Kerry lost in 2004.  

          There was clearly some ticket splitting as well.  Virtually every Democrat that won (except Elizabeth Warren) ran a bit or substantially ahead of Obama.  

          •  Yes. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, MichaelNY

            I'm still waiting to see evidence that a trend towards racially polarized voting for whites exists outside of the south.

          •  Yup, MattTX is very wrong (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MBishop1, itskevin, MichaelNY

            Obama's 39% is actually par for the course.

            Carter '80 and Mondale were at 36 and 35, respectively.

            Dukakis climbed to 40, but Clinton '92 got only 38!

            Clinton '96 got 43, same as Obama '08, and that was the all-time best in the post-1976 era.

            Gore and Kerry were both in the low 40s.

            So Obama is firmly in the normal range.

            Also, it can't be emphasized enough that these exit polls are just damn polls, with margins of error like all polls.  And they have other methodological problems unique to in-person exit polling.  So you can't treat the numbers as having great precision.  This means Obama's 39% shouldn't be taken too seriously as a precise figure, he easily could've been 41 or 37 as imprecise as exit polling is (although 37 is unlikely for a President exceeding 50% of the national popular vote).

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:02:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Are you being sarcastically (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JDJase, lordpet8, gigantomachyusa

      hypothetical here?

      These are across the board rather absurd, even for a worst case scenario system.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:57:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A bit too pessimistic... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MattTX, lordpet8, MichaelNY

      I'm leaning towards no gains, and 3-5 losses for Democrats in the Senate.  Remember that just as the 2012 electorate was a bit less white than the 2008 electorate, the 2014 electorate will be a bit less white than 2010.  After all, a goodly portion of the Republican base voting block will be dead.  

      Some incumbents in deep red states are in fact pretty popular.  Begich had a 57% approval rating last year, for example, and it's quite likely the teabagger who won the primary against Murkowski will run again against him.   Last I checked All Franken and Tim Johnson were pretty popular as well.  

      In the house, I expect minimal damage.  Say a net loss of 3-5.  I expect McIntyre to lose, and possibly any of the other three Democrats left in deep red seats.  Plus a few of the Lean R/Swing seats.  The Democrats don't have many logical pickup opportunities left outside of the one seat in California which passed us by, unless we do get comprehensive immigration reform passed.  

      •  I think I'm being (partially) misinterpreted (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        All I am saying is that in the Senate, there are a LOT of really tough deep red states where Dems will be vulnerable in 2014. At least 5. Plus there are a lot of swing states where Dems will face close elections - if the GOP can get decent candidates.

        That assumes, as I said, that the GOP actually gets good candidates, and that they don't kneecap themselves with teapartiers again. I recognize that just because it is very tough to hold these seats doesn't mean it is impossible. There were a lot of very tough seats in 2012, and Dems held them, and even made gains!

        In the house, it is obviously not going to be like 2010 in the sense of losing 60 seats, because we have already lost most of the seats we could lose. But it will be like 2010 in the sense that we'll probably (other things being equal) take some losses, and it is very unlikely that there will be any prospect of taking back the house.

        I'm not saying that disaster is assured, I'm just saying that the battlefield is heavily tilted the wrong way.

    •  Ah broad strokes (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MBishop1, lordpet8, askew, MichaelNY

      Did you know:

      Colorado:  Obama 2008 (50%), Obama 2012 (44%), Hickenlooper 2010 (47%), Bennet 2010 (44%) all got a higher share of the white vote in Colorado than Kerry (42%) 2004 and won the state.

      A similar situation has occurred in VA, where even Creigh Deeds matched Kerry 2004 in the white vote and Obama 2008/12, Warner 2008, Kaine 2012 and Webb 2006 all surpassed Kerry.  Warner got 56% of the white vote in 2008 for goodness sake.

      The white vote isn't a big deal everywhere.  Dems are losing ground in Oklahoma and Utah and Texas big whoop.  Dems have actually been making inroads in places like CO and VA..  

      Dems need 40% in prez election years, a couple points higher in non-prez years.  The idea that a 39% shar ein 2014 is indicative of anything is untrue, you have to look at specific races.  There's little if any indication that the white votre in CO is doing anything except trending Dem, for instance.  

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:20:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  CO is not safe dem (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I didn't say that CO was by any means lost. Dems can be very competitive there, even in midterms, as 2010 showed. I just said that if the GOP gets a credible candidate, the Senate race could be a dogfight - not that the Rs will necessarily win, but that it is a mistake to assume that it will be a cakewalk.

    •  It is way too early for this sort of prediction (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MichaelNY

      In 2010, on SSP, the majority of people thought we'd gain Senate seats.

      In 2012, the majority of poeple on DKE thought we'd lose Senate seats.

      No we we'll really have even an idea where things stand until early 2014. Shouldn't stop us for speculating. But right now, way too gloomy.

    •  at tad too optimistic for the GOP (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If you really think that 2010=2014, then you also need to consider the fact that GOP will probably run crazies and give Dems freebies like they did in 2010 (NV,CO, DE)

      Meaning at best a 6 GOP pickup would turn to no more than a 3 seat pickup if you really want to compare it to 2010.

      "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

      by lordpet8 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 02:46:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It all depends on indies and swing voters (0+ / 0-)

      They were pissed in 2010, both by inflammatory Republican rhetoric and big legislative changes that, quite frankly, scared them.

      Will they be pissed in 2014? It's possible, but I doubt we'll see any big legislation that will unnerve them. And it's just as possible that they'll be pissed at Republican intransigence.

      We'll see.

  •  WTF? Pat Robertson. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, "Everyone's better when everyone's better"- Paul Wellstone

    by WisJohn on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:43:11 AM PST

  •  I missed NC (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    It's lean D. The state is only light-red and still trending blue. Hagan seems to be holding up ok and the GOP bench isn't that great.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 10:58:39 AM PST

  •  Ha ha!!! (14+ / 0-)

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:07:26 AM PST

  •  Interesting note (4+ / 0-)

    You can drive from Caribou, Maine south and not hit land represented by a House Republican until you're about to cross the Verrezano-Narrows Bridge in Bay Ridge Brooklyn.  Some 630 miles.

  •  Allen West's attorney is like "Baghdad Bob" (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MBishop1, itskevin, MichaelNY

    "The judge utterly rebuked us!  Praise be to Allen West, we're winning!"

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:37:16 AM PST

  •  Carney says Obama will veto bill (20+ / 0-)

    extending tax cuts for upper income earners.  A threat that was not made in 2010 and 2011.

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

  •  OK, here we go, IE spending in PA-12. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, sacman701, bfen, MichaelNY

    With the cumulative figures, here's what Critz had:

    DCCC    $1,907,579.57
    House Majority PAC    $522,601.01
    AFSCME    $360,000.00
    SEIU COPE    $275,690.79
    SEIU PEA    $224,713.39
    Workers' Voice    $166,786.45
    ARDA-ROC    $52,488.57
    Working America    $38,020.41
    United Mine Workers    $23,644.88
    American Majority Action    $8,886.00
    United Steelworkers PAC    $152.97
    If you're wondering what the Steelworkers could possibly have bothered spending $153 on, it was "Mark Critz Hardhat stickers".  Really.  

    That comes to $3,580,564.04, although you get     $4,228,891.04 if you add up individual expenditures (so there might be some double-counting, i.e., groups classifying the same thing as "for Critz" or "against Rofus").

    Here's what Rofus had:

    Americans for Tax Reform    $2,517,330.30
    NRCC    $2,377,813.51
    YG Action Fund    $529,365.00
    YG Network    $388,240.00
    Club for Growth    $311,964.78
    Freedomworks    $214,978.22
    Heritage Action    $44,223.51
    Faith Family Freedom Fund    $7,328.00
    Republican Federal Committee of Pennsylvania    $1,924.00
    60 Plus Associationn    $1,500.24
    That comes to $6,394,667.56, or $6,923,846.48 if you add up the individual expenditures.

    You see why that typo was so costly.  So yeah, Critz really was in a big money hole in between outside spending and blowing all of his money on the primary, but the big players were the NRCC and Americans for Tax Reform.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:38:47 AM PST

  •  People here about the riots on my (5+ / 0-)

    campus at the University of Mississippi following Obama's announced victory on Tuesday night?

    Students have responded. This was one critical response, amazingly done and hilarious:

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:39:31 AM PST

  •  Failed GOP rising stars of 2012. Let's list 'em (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

    like we did in 2010 with people like Ryan Frazier.

    My list:
    Eric Ulrich (NY St. Senate)
    Mia Love
    Who else???

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:43:36 AM PST

  •  Ohio coal company lays off workers as reprisal (18+ / 0-)

    for Obama winning the election.

    http://politicalwire.com/...

    Trying to indoctrinate them into voting for Romney wasn't enough punishment I guess.

  •  What's the over/under on Florida being called? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

    I say Thanksgiving.

  •  Gov. Patrick dining with Obama tonight (6+ / 0-)

    Could AG be part of the dinner discussion?

    http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...

  •  What state has the most LGBT prominent elected (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, sulthernao, bfen, MichaelNY

    officials?  I'd be tempted to say Wisconsin with now a lesbian senator and a gay congressman, but I'd like to think Oregon, with a bisexual SOS, two state Supreme Court justices: Rives Kistler is gay and Virginia Linder is lesbian, and now lesbian speaker of the state house, isn't far behind.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 11:59:43 AM PST

  •  OMG: MSNBC says Petraeus has resigned (5+ / 0-)

    citing an extramarital affair!

    Their breaking news banner right now. His wife, Holly, works for the admin too, as part of the CFPB, specifically on financial issues facing military families.

  •  Cuomo. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

    It's not just that he prefers a Republican senate in New York. It's that he is basically the only politician with the power to keep state Republicans relevant. That just won't work, Andrew.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:42:44 PM PST

  •  11:50 AM PDT: GA-10 (0+ / 0-)

    I assume that's supposed to mean NY-24?

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Fri Nov 09, 2012 at 12:56:41 PM PST

  •  Latino Vote Random Question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I wonder how much of the shift in Latinos came from new voters and how much came from McCain Latinos shifting to Obama. I seem to remember a Fox News Latino poll showing Obama getting 38% of Hispanic McCain supporters.

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