Pima county updated at 2 PM Friday afternoon.
Following are AZ CD-2 Barber /McSally counted votes.
Barber Pima Co. 110,987 plus 12,663 from Cochise = 123,650
McSally : Pima county 103,264 plus 19,800 from Cochise = 123,064
That puts him UP by 586 votes!
these number supercede this morning's numbers. details from this AM below the golden cucaracha.
CD-2 spreads across Pima and Cochise county. Cochise County is more conservative but has fewer registered voters. McSally is carrying Cochise county by 60.85% to Barber's 38.92%.
Cochise County elections page shows that 33,356 ballots were cast. If you add up the already counted totals for McSally, Barber and write ins, you get 32,536 ballots counted, which leaves a difference of 893 ballots cast which are not showing up yet in these totals.
The question of Provisional ballots remain. Are they included in the 'ballots cast ' numbers, i don't know , possibly not, if they have not been verified yet. Even so, I don't think there will be nearly as high of a % of Provisional ballots in Cochise as in Pima county, and certainly not as high a % as in Maricopa county. This is a rural county for the most part and usually the only people moving have been moving out. (my personal opinion only...)
If McSally's percentage holds that would give her an additional 543 votes from Cochise and Barber another 348.
Meanwhile in Pima County as of this AM they show a total of 323,260 ballots cast and only 207054 counted ballots, leaving 116,206 not counted.
UPDATE:1:10 PM AZ time. thank you to AZ Penguin for pointing out that not all of the uncounted ballots in Pima are for CD2, so the following conclusions are not accurate. i am going to dive back in to see if i can find out the CD2 % then recalculate...
__________
If the percentages hold, Barber gets an additional 5668 plus 348 and McSally gets an additional 5,294 from Pima plus 543 from Cochise.
For Barber that equales 119,536 already counted plus additional 6016 .
For McSally that is 119,617 already counted plus 5837 .
I can't quite parse out the subcategory of provisional ballots, but I can't see them breaking for McSally at a higher rate than the polling place or early ballots. personal opinion.
of course this is incredibly simplistic, the remaining votes are not going to break exactly the same, and disclaimer, this is my own personal Friday morning arithmetic
but that would leave Barber with 125,551 votes and McSally with 125, 454.
holy smokes , that is barber by a whisker, AKA too close for anyone to imagine they could figure, any variables at all come into play...but still, a whisker of hope.
So don't give up!
As Pima county works its way through provisional ballots . let us hope they break heavily in our candidates favor.
Barber's camp is use to tight elections..he was with Giffords when she won hers...
cochise county page link below..Pima and statewide pages accessible via this same site
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/...
2:07 PM PT: Friday afternoon website update from Pima County puts Barber in the lead by 586 votes