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Alabama: The Democratic Party is pretty much dead in Alabama, and I don't see that changing any time soon. Safe R

Alaska: Mark Begich is in a very tough spot here. This is the GOP's number one pickup opportunity. He barely won against a convicted felon in the Democratic wave year of 2008. Dems almost always underperform in Alaska, and there's very little natural base for them here. Perhaps Begich's best hope is if the GOP nominates a nutjob like Joe Miller, or maybe even Joe Miller himself. Alaska is conservative, but as they showed when they voted for moderate Lisa Murkowski over a Palin-style conservative, they're not a huge fan of teabaggers. Absent a tainted opponent, this race is Lean R - GOP pickup.

Arkansas: Arkansas is hard to judge, in that it heavily depends on the identity of the nominees. A typical Republican would no doubt slaughter a typical Democrat. But if Mark Pryor runs again, he has to be considered the favorite. If he retires, we're looking at a lean R race, unless popular Gov. Mike Beebe runs, in which it would be likely D. For now, I'll just call it Lean D.

Colorado: Mark Udall is definitely vulnerable, but he has the edge in this trending blue state when even the much weaker Michael Bennet could win in the Republican wave year of 2010. Lean D

Delaware: Chris Coons is safe. Let's hope Christine O'Donnell runs again! Safe D

Georgia: It's going to be very tough to dislodge Saxby Chambliss when we couldn't in 2008. But he definitely isn't invulnerable. Likely R

Idaho: Hopefully Idaho's single Democrat isn't too busy that he can't run against Jim Risch...Safe R

Illinois: Dick Durbin is safe. Safe D

Iowa: According to PPP, Tom Harkin has lost much of his crossover appeal which let him win with the easy landslides in the past decades. However, he still has a clear edge. Lean D

Kansas: Pat Roberts is safe. Safe R

Kentucky: Assuming Susan Collins doesn't retire, this is the Democrats' best (only?) pickup opportunity. Mitch McConnell barely won in 2008, and his approval rating has absolutely cratered since then. And Kentucky has no shortage of viable statewide Dems, such as popular incumbent Gov. Steve Beshear and 2010 nominee Jack Conway. If it wasn't for Kentucky's red tide this race would be leaning our way, but because of it it is a Toss Up.

Louisiana: After 2010, it looked like Mary Landrieu would become the Blanche Lincoln of 2014. She's the last federal Democrat in the entire state, and Louisiana isn't exactly getting any bluer. However, she managed a turnaround in her popularity by aggressively coming out against the Democrats on energy policy, and she was always personally popular. However, she hasn't gone out of her way enough to antagonize Democrats to earn a primary challenge like Blanche Lincoln did. With all these factors helping her, the race is a Toss Up.

Maine: Obviously, a lot depends here. If Susan Collins doesn't retire, this is safe R. If she does, it is Lean D. I'll split the difference and say it is Lean R

Massachusetts: John Kerry (or any Dem) is safe. Safe D

Michigan: Carl Levin is safe. Safe D

Minnesota: Surprisingly, the polarizing Al Franken's approvals have held up fairly well. He will start off the favorite against any Republican. Lean D

Mississippi: See Alabama. Safe R

Montana: A lot can happen here. A lot. Max Baucus' popularity has fluctuated, but he'd likely be a slight favorite against any Republican. If he retires and it becomes generic D vs. generic R, the race will lean Republican. If popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer runs, the race will be lean D. Until the landscape shapes out here, I'll just call it a Toss Up.

Nebraska: Mike Johanns is safe. Safe R

New Hampshire: New Hampshire is very bipolar and prone to very wild swings. Absent seeing the national mood, I give Jeanne Shaheen an edge here. Lean D

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg, or whichever Dem runs, is unlikely to get a serious challenge. Safe D

New Mexico: Tom Udall is in very little danger, but I wouldn't go as far to say he's completely safe. Likely D

North Carolina: Kay Hagan will almost certainly be in for a rough fight in this newly purple state. Decreased AA turnout in a midterm year will end up hurting her. Toss Up

Oklahoma: Unfortunately, the asshole Jim Inhofe is safe in the reddest state in the country. Safe R

Oregon: Jeff Merkley will likely skate to re-election, unless the only current Republican Oregon representative, Greg Walden, runs against him. To account for that, I give the race a Likely D

Rhode Island: Jack Reed is safe. Safe D

South Carolina: Lindsey Graham will almost certainly get teabagged or retire, but we have little to no bench here (Alvin Greene anyone?), so this has to be considered Likely R

South Dakota: A lot of possibilities here. If Mike Rounds, former GOP governor, runs, the seat is likely R. If he doesn't, but Tim Johnson retires, it is Lean R. If Tim Johnson runs or former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin takes his place against a generic R it is Lean D. Until the landscape is known, I'll consider it a Toss Up

Tennessee: Lamar Alexander is safe, although he may get teabagged. But we wouldn't be able to take advantage if he did since we have no bench here. Safe R

Texas: John Cornyn isn't really popular, but neither was Rick Perry and the R carried the day. That will likely happen again. Likely R

Virginia: If the extremely popular Mark Warner runs, it is Safe D. If not, it is a Toss Up. So for now I'll say Likely D

West Virginia: Like Arkansas, much here depends upon the identity of the nominees. If Shelley Moore Capito runs, this race is lean R, regardless of our candidate. If Jay Rockefeller retires and it is generic D vs. generic R, it is lean R. If Jay Rockefeller runs or a top tier candidate such as Earl Ray Tomblin, Carte Goodwin, or Nick Rahall replaces him, it is lean D. For now I'll call it a Toss Up

Wyoming: Mike Enzi is safe. Safe R

Safe D: 5 (5 D)
Likely D: 3 (3 D)
Lean D: 5 (5 D)
Toss Up: 6 (5 D, 1 R)
Lean R: 2 (1 R, 1 D*)
Likely R: 2 (2 R)
Safe R: 8 (8 R)

Obviously, this map is pretty rough for us, mostly due to the terrain. If we're lucky and Susan Collins retires we'll have two realistic pickup opportunities, if not then just one. If all lean states went the same way and toss ups got split, we'd lose 4 seats. But that's somewhat good news since it could possibly end up getting a lot worse. Let's just hope we do great on candidate recruitment, the GOP bombs at it, and it's a good national climate for us!

I'd like to hear your guys' comments to see which ratings you agree or disagree with! (And yes, I know it's way too early for this, but I want to see how these predictions hold a year or two from now :) ).

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