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Comment Preferences

  •  Partial recount in FL-18? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Larsstephens, MichaelNY

    So says the Palm Beach Post: "Allen West-Patrick Murphy drama: St. Lucie County to recount approx 37,000 early votes on Sunday morning."

    https://twitter.com/...

  •  Great song pick! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, NM Ward Chair

    I'd like to post some hilarious political Youtube Poops.  For those that don't know, YTP's are where you take media such as cartoons and movies and use sentence-mixing and patching in sound effects and voices from other sources to make potentially hilarious products.  Some are lame, some are extremely funny.  These are some remixed versions of: 1) A Romney ad.  2) Announcement of Ryan for VP and the 9/11 Libya speech by Romney.  3) The second presidential debate.  The second one is marginally not safe for work.

    1)

    2)

    3)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:11:35 PM PST

  •  I'm working on a diary on the Texas State House (5+ / 0-)

    elections.  Anyone care to guess how many majority-white-in-CVAP seats Democrats won on Tuesday?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:13:49 PM PST

  •  So how many (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    flips needed after the close races in FL and CA are finally certified?

  •  I'm really hankering for some (4+ / 0-)

    final national popular vote results so I can do a very refined PVI calculation.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:47:13 PM PST

    •  PVI = ????? (0+ / 0-)

      pvi pvi pvi pvi pvi

      what the bleep is it?

      damn!   personal vaginal insert?

      permanent vacant imbalance?

      present valuable income?

      pupillary vanilla injection?

      •  perverse voter index? (0+ / 0-)

        parabolic venting indicator?

        •  are you drunk? (11+ / 1-)

          rude rude rude rude rude...

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 09:57:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No - but PVI is meaningless to most readers (0+ / 0-)

            And writing "are you drunk" in your headline violates dkos policy in that it constitutes a personal attack.

            The only thing that was rude was "personal ..inset," and it wasn't meant to upset, actually,, but if anyone found that particular word upsetting, my sincere apologies to them.

            To the person who wrote PVI without saying what it means, the problem that I'm trying to bring to your attention is that hardly anyone knows what PVI is, or if it actually has any importance.

            •  Please describe PVI in words to clarify it. (0+ / 0-)

              That was the whole point of writing various joke versions, and one of the words was in sketchy taste, admittedly, and I would cut it if it was possible to edit (wish it was!).

              In another post, PVI is described as an index of trends in voting (the past two election results divided by another number).

              Now, and I am a lifelong liberal dem, just because there is a PVI score suggesting that there was a trend does not really tell us much.

              For example, in 1972, Nixon had a massive victory, and his PVI was absolutely gigantic (after the 1964 crushing of the GOP Goldwater), the GOP candidates went from a disastrous landslide loss to a major landslide win in only 8 years.

              So - if PVI is an index of trends over the past 8 years, then how useful is PVI, for example, knowing that Nixon won a big victory in 1972 did not mean that the GOP would hold the Presidency in 1976.

              In fact, 1976 was a very strong Democratic year.

              So, if anything, PVI may actually be a contrarian indicator, meaning that having the trend in one pair of elections may negatively predict outcomes 4 years later.

              Not only is it problematic to mention PVI as if everyone knows what it is, but it is more problematic to assume that it is a useful (or even a positive) predictor.

              •  simply because there's a landslide doesn't (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, sapelcovits

                throw off PVI unless its disproportionate in certain areas.  When determining PVI, you subtract the national portion of the popular vote from the particular one in the state/district you're looking at.  So if Obama got 53.68% of the 2-party vote in 2008 nationally (which he did), but 62.34% in a particular district, you would do this:
                62.34-53.68=8.66

                Then you do the same for Kerry.  Say he got 48.76% of the 2-party national vote in 2004 (which he did), but 52.46% of the vote in this hypothetical district we're looking at.  So we do this:
                52.46-48.76=3.7
                Then we simply average the two, so 3.7+8.66=12.36
                12.36/2=6.18
                so we get D+6.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:21:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I'm being pretty nice (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits

                But I'll answer your question instead of saying that because you've been rude, you can just go look it up yourself. It wouldn't have taken a great effort for you to look it up in Wikipedia instead of being an _ about it.

                Key points:

                The Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI), sometimes referred to as simply the Partisan Voting Index (PVI), is a measurement of how strongly an American congressional district or state leans toward one political party compared to the nation as a whole. [emphasis added]
                The index for each congressional district is derived by averaging its results from the prior two presidential elections and comparing them to national results.
                I hope that explains it.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:22:01 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  and the reason I didn't describe what it is (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje, MichaelNY, sapelcovits, BeloitDem

                is because 98% of the people in this thread know what it is, and I'm talking to them.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:22:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Here is a link with (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                The definition of PVI. Note that PVI is not intended to predict the national popular vote, and in fact gives no indication of it at all. Here's how it's commonly used at DKE (and it's used a lot here):

                Presidential Races:

                While PVI can't predict the national popular vote at all, it can act as a guide for which states are likely to be swing states, and which of those are likely to favor the Democrat relative to the national popular vote. It's a reliable indicator of relative blueness or redness of different states.

                Congressional and Legislative Races:

                This is where PVI is really useful. House seats in particular have a strong tendency to follow their partisan leans, so we can tell the difference between, say, the OK-02 and WI-02 races this year, both in open seats vacated by Democrats (Dan Boren and Tammy Baldwin respectively). In both cases, the Democratic nominee was a good fit for a local Democrat, and the Republican nominee was a decent fit for a local Republican. Just on the basis of candidate quality, the races would be of similar difficulty.

                However, the districts have very different PVIs. WI-02 was D+16 by 2004-2008 numbers, meaning in a Presidential election with a tied popular vote, the Democrat would expect to get 66%. That means that a Democratic congressional candidate there, in this case Mark Pocan, will almost certainly win. While Pocan has limited crossover appeal (he's very liberal), the district is blue enough that he hardly needs any. He doubled up his opponent 68-32.

                OK-02 is a different story. It's about R+15, meaning in a tied national election, the Democrat would get only 35%. Our candidate, Rob Wallace, was a decent candidate, but the PVI indicates that people there don't like Democrats, at least at the Presidential level, and that increasingly translates to the local level as well. Thus, we rated the race Likely R because of how red the district was. Wallace would have had to win a lot of Romney voters, and wasn't quite good enough, losing 38-57.

                Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

                by fearlessfred14 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:51:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  You can't click the hide button (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, HoosierD42, sapelcovits

              on somebody talking to you.  Against the rules.  Because people often have difficulty being objective in arguments they are participating in, it is up to the community to judge that stuff.

            •  The way you were behaving (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, sapelcovits

              It seemed like you were drunk. That's an honest remark by me. You seemed out of character, compared to how you'd previously behaved on DKE.

              If you want to know what an abbreviation whose meaning is widely known on this sub-site means, and you'd rather not Google it, the polite thing to do is say "What's PVI." People are usually happy to explain things if you ask politely. And you aren't going to get more respect by HRing people for calling you out for your behavior.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:17:34 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Thats exactly why I said it (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I honesty thought he was. I said as much below in response to another comment he made that he was not being his/her normal cogent self.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:27:16 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  google it. (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY, sapelcovits, jncca, Skaje

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:04:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  california won't be done counting until 12/7 n/t (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV
  •  Reposting some questions from last thread (0+ / 0-)

    Could Tim Holden have won PA-11 had he run there instead of the 17th?  I think there's a good chance he could have despite it not having any Schuylkill County, but our 3rd tier nominee there still got 41.5% and I think with Holden's incumbency in the Harrisburg area, his moderate record, and his abillity to fundraise being much stronger than Stilp he might have pulled it off.

    Also, would Leonard Bembry have done better enough if FL-02 to have won?

    How about Jason Altmire in PA-12?  I think that one's a pretty definite yes since his incumbency alone was worth a lot more than Critz's for that seat.

    How much better would Patrick Murphy have done in PA-08 over Kathy Boockvar?  Initially I thought he might have been able to win it, but now I think he might have only gotten a few % higher.

    Would Heath Shuler have held on in NC-11?  Hayden rogers got 42.5% and I think Shuler probably would have eked out a narrow win like McIntyre did.

    Our some dude nominee got 41.3% in FL-07. Given how well we did in general in the contested Florida races, how high do you think we could have gotten in that district with a well funded nominee like Val Demmings.  47 or 48%?

    And finally, how much better would Earl Pomeroy and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin done in North and South Dakota had they run for their old seats?  I think Herseth Sandlin would have easily gotten at least 48% if not won outright.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 03:52:27 PM PST

    •  Pomeroy and SHS would have won (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen, WisJohn

      Especially Pomeroy, with a firecracker like Heitkamp at the top of the ticket accentuating the fact that he was once an 18-year incumbent. They might have even been able to feed on each other.

      Considering how close Critz came as it was, I think Altmire would have won.

      As for Bembry, I'm not sure, it would depend on how vigorously he would have campaigned. Lawson came closer than any of us thought at the outset.

      I won't try and weigh in on the others for lack of knowledge.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:32:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-02 Barber/McSally almost tied 36 votes apart (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, wu ming

    I just noticed in AZ-02 last most recent tallies are:
    MCSALLY, MARTHA (REP)            125,223     49.92%    
    BARBER, RON (DEM)            125,187     49.90%    
    WRITE-IN         461     0.18%
    http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/...

    It's closed up to only 36 votes!

    Thoughts:
    1. FWIW, the trend is in our direction the past 2 days. (Barber was behind by 426 reported in last Thursday's Digest)

    2. There are umpteen thousand ballots yet to count.  (As this recommended diary from yesterday writes about :
    After 3 days of counting, the number of uncounted provisional ballots in Arizona has increased

    3. And I wonder just who the heck those 461 write-in votes are for?

  •  Here's the 18-29 vote for every state (9+ / 0-)

    Or every state that I could find an exit poll for.  Number in () is the % of the voters within the 18-29 group.  Ordered from biggest Obama margin to biggest Romney margin.  Unfortunately a lot of red states didn't get polled.  Obama won the 18-29 vote in 26 of 30 states polled.  

    California had the highest % of young voters.  It's pretty obvious that they were a major reason why Dems pretty much ran the table in competitive races in that state this election.

    MA (18%) - Obama 73-24
    NY (18%) - Obama 72-25
    VT (13%) - Obama 72-27
    MD (19%) - Obama 70-26
    CA (27%) - Obama 71-27
    IL (17%) - Obama 68-28
    NV (18%) - Obama 68-30
    CT (13%) - Obama 66-30
    NC (16%) - Obama 67-32
    WA (22%) - Obama 66-32
    OR (22%) - Obama 66-32
    FL (16%) - Obama 66-32
    NM (17%) - Obama 64-32
    ME (15%) - Obama 63-32
    MN (20%) - Obama 63-33
    WI (21%) - Obama 60-32
    NH (19%) - Obama 62-34
    MI (19%) - Obama 63-35
    PA (19%) - Obama 63-35
    OH (17%) - Obama 63-35
    AZ (26%) - Obama 63-36
    NJ (16%) - Obama 63-36
    VA (19%) - Obama 61-36
    MO (18%) - Obama 58-39
    IA (15%) - Obama 56-40
    MS (19%) - Obama 55-43
    ....
    IN (20%) - Romney 49-46
    MT (15%) - Romney 50-46
    AL (18%) - Romney 52-48
    KS (17%) - Romney 54-41

  •  Montana Statewide Electoin results: Dems held most (8+ / 0-)

    Dems held onto all statewide positions except for Attorney-General:
    http://electionresults.sos.mt.gov/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 04:18:18 PM PST

  •  two dems who didn't win (5+ / 0-)

    were people I know personally running for state legislature.  In each case, thank god, because they were unstable loons.

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 04:18:38 PM PST

  •  Here's an bizarre county - Liberty County, FL (10+ / 0-)

    Population - around 8,400
    Mormon population - about 12% of residents, easily the highest rate for any county in the southeast
    Voter registration is roughly 85% Democrat, 10% Republican
    Romney won it 70-29
    Bill Nelson beat Mack 50-49

    •  weirdly (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, ChadmanFL, jj32

      I expected Obama to underperform particularly in Malheur County, Oregon, which is the most Mormon in the state, and happens to be closer to Utah than Portland.  He actually did a couple points better than I expected, and even taking into account I was using a low estimate of the popular vote, he still seems to have overperformed, doing less than a point worse than he did in 2008, I'm pretty sure.  Perhaps because the Hispanic population is kind of high?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 04:25:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Liberty saw one of Obama's biggest (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Swamp Cat

      underperformances in the state in 2008, even though the broader area saw him underperform too.

      When I calculated the 2004-2010 averages by county, Liberty saw Obama do 23.5% worse than his 2008 statewide % in liberty, but on average it was just 1.5% more Republican than the state.

      I'm sure that 1.5% will grow once I drop 2004's numbers and add 2012's when I recalculate all the county averages for the states as Nelson's numbers demonstrate, but then again, Alex Sink also won Liberty county by 1%.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:28:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ update (11+ / 0-)

    A few more votes dribbled in, apparently only from Maricopa county because the AZ1 and AZ2 numbers did not move.

    Sinema put more distance between herself and Parker again, she is now up 4,710 votes or 2.44%.

    Flake is up 77,002 votes or 4.19%. Romney's margin is down to 10.37%.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 04:22:34 PM PST

  •  Dammit. (7+ / 0-)

    I just spent a bunch of time procrastinating by doing this post on the last thread, and I'll be damned if I let that procrastination goes to waste. So again, here's Obama share of the white vote for the states that had exit polls this year, for 2008 and 2012 respectively:

    South:

    Alabama 10, 15
    Florida 42, 37
    Mississippi 11, 10
    North Carolina 35, 31
    Virginia 39, 37

    Average shift: -1.4

    West:

    Arizona 40, 32
    California 52, 45
    Colorado 50, 44
    Montana 45, 38
    Nevada 45, 43
    New Mexico 42, 41
    Oregon 57, 54
    Washington 55, 53

    Average shift: -4.5

    Northeast:

    Connecticut 51, 51
    Maine 58, 57
    Maryland 47, 43
    Massachusetts 59, 57
    New Hampshire 54, 51
    New Jersey 49, 43
    New York 52, 49
    Pennsylvania 48, 42
    Vermont 68, 66

    Average shift: -3.0

    Midwest:

    Illinois 51, 46
    Indiana 45, 38
    Iowa 51, 51
    Kansas 40, 33
    Michigan 51, 44
    Minnesota 53, 48
    Missouri 42, 32
    Ohio 46, 41
    Wisconsin 54, 48

    Average shift: -5.8

    So. There's that.

    •  Sarah Palin accounts for this 5.8% (0+ / 0-)

      Palin was such a complete ditz that 6% of white voters realized she would be a disaster for the country.

      Another factor was the economy in 2008 - the disaster was reaching its peak, and 6% of whites could not deny that the Republicans were putrid.

  •  just did the math myself (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    and Obama's 2.2% Electoral College advantage (he could've lost nationally by 2.2% and won the Electoral College) is tied with 1968 (when Republicans had the advantage) for the biggest advantage since 1948.  In 1948 and years prior, Republicans had a big advantage (4.6% in 1948 itself, around 3% during FDR's Presidency) because of how Democratic the South was.

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 04:27:42 PM PST

  •  NH-sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Chris cillizza has heard rumors of sununu trying for his old senate seat.  CC's source is old, but still a possibility.  Anyone else hear these rumors (from another source I mean).

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    http://cdn.rollcall.com/...

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 04:31:37 PM PST

  •  New numbers in AZ02 and AZ09 (7+ / 0-)

    Cochise County just updated its numbers: Out of 2730 new votes, McSally netted 394. That puts her overall lead to 430 votes because there is nothing from Pima County today.

    Those numbers are actually not that good for McSally: She won today's batch of ballots by 14%, whereas she leads by 21% in county. So if Barber continues to get out of Pima County what he has been getting over the past few days, he should pull it out.

    --

    AZ-09: Maricopa County updated, and Sinema's lead extended by about 600 votes to 4710.

    --

    For those tracking Senate race, no miracle for Carmona -- He was doing very well in the Maricopa ballots over the past two days, but he lost today's batch. By less than his deficit in the county, sure, but he really would need massive overperformance.

  •  AZ-02: Barber UP after updates from both counties (17+ / 0-)

    For the first time since Election Night, Rep. Barber is ahead after BOTH Cochise and Pima county updated for the day: He netted 653 votes in Pima, so he is now leading by 223 votes overall.

    He won today's Pima ballots by 6,5%, which is under what I had said he should aim for. But McSally underperformed in Cochise by much more, so it's looking good for Barber.

  •  interesting thing baout 2012 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, WisJohn

    maybe someone's mentioned this already, if so, forgive me for bringing up old news, but were there any hopeful races for the GOP out of 2012?  Anything on the state level, something that tells them "we can compete here in a few cycles"?  In 2004, even though we lost the presidential race and even more senate seats, at least we could say we won a senate race in Colorado, a governor's race in Montana and we have a new charismatic senator from illinois.  Some Irish guy I think, Bill O'brien, or something like that.  What similar states does the GOP have?  North Carolina I suppose, but I don't think keeping a solid republican state a battleground is cause for celebration.  Nebraska?  Please.  Possible Missouri, which is clearly no longer a battleground, but in fairness we don't know if having a white nominee will change it back or not.  Aside from those, they don't have a consolation prize the way democrats did in 2004.

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:11:26 PM PST

    •  Appalachia (5+ / 0-)

      West Virginia will give them more and more opportunities in the future, and their House gain in Kentucky has to be considered a bright spot for them, too.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:25:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, this was probably their most (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, NM Ward Chair, jncca

        promising, and in a state that Democrats have had solid control over for, oh, just the last 80 years and where the last Republican senator was elected 46 years ago that's nothing to sneeze at.

        I wouldn't be shocked at all if Republicans finally see their party capture the governors mansion concurrently with 1 or 2 legislative chambers.  Coal is just really hurting Dems even downballot in central Appalachia.

        Arkansas was fairly similar too though as they captured the legislature for the first time ever and the governors office will be open next cycle.

        Also, they gained a supermajority in the Missouri House so they can now override Nixon's vetoes more or less at will.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:37:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Missouri (4+ / 0-)

        Outstate Missouri (that area out of St. Louis and Kansas City) has become significantly redder.

        The Republicans now have veto-proof majorities in both houses of the General Assembly.

        Interestingly enough, statewide Democrats won all but one of the races, and that race was for Lt. Governor, who has some scandals, and should have lost.  The Democrat had been the Auditor.  

        From West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, to Missouri, white fundamentalists are bastions of Republicanism mixed with fear of a black man in the White House.

        Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

        by MoDem on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:35:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Dems will have better chances in the South-East & (0+ / 0-)

      in the Mounten-West in 2014 races.

      SC and GA Senate races will be in play for Democrats.

      House seats in AZ, CO, NV, MT will far more competitive for Democratic candidates.

      That's due to sharp demographic changes. Latinos and Asians heavily lean towards Democrats. Registration of these demographic groups will play a very crucial role in several battles for Congress seats in those regions.

      Democrats will regain control of the House and retain their control of the Senate in 2014. And that will be vital for Obama's administration overall competitiveness and will also boost the prospects of the next Democratic candidate to win the Presidency in 2016.

      •  AZ (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        We're maxed out in AZ, and three of the seats are marginal for us there. Sinema, Kirkpatrick, and Barber will face tough races no matter what we do.

        There are two races that we could win in CO and only one in NV - and we still have to defend a potentially vulnerable incumbent - and there's really no reason to believe that MT's AL seat will be competitive given that Gillan got basically the same percentage as Varilek and Gulleson in the Dakotas despite actual investment from the DCCC (granted, the Republicans and third party candidates in those races had a wider range, but all were above 53%) that was not given to the other two.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 02:57:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Honestly (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Our best opportunities are in California and that's pretty much it. Everywhere else we're going to be playing defense.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 02:58:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Also (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, jncca

            And this wasn't even getting into whether or not S.C. as a Senate target is reasonable...

            Our Senate offensive map begins and ends with a Collins retirement announcement.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 03:00:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Wrong attitude. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I get where you are coming from, but there's no reason we couldn't play more offense if we wanted to do so.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 07:22:54 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  New York might be possible (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem, jncca

            if Upstate continues to trend Democratic. Shinagawa needs to be financed if he wants to run again. And if King should retire, it's worth fighting for his district. There also might be targets in Michigan if really good candidates run and get plenty of funding. We could go down a list of other possibilities, but most of them are likely to need help from some unusual set of circumstances.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 03:23:36 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Your predictions are highly improbable (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv

        On what basis are you forecasting a big wave for the Democrats in an off-year with a Democratic president in office? Just because you wish for something doesn't make it likely, let alone something you should assert as a truth.

        A more sober assessment would be that the Democrats are quite unlikely to win seats in SC or GA in 2014, but should do their best to run good candidates, anyway, on the off chance that the Republicans nominate someone so extreme a general electorate that figures to be older and whiter than in a presidential year might nevertheless vote against him/her. I think the likely scenario in SC is that Graham either resigns or is defeated in a primary, and the more right-wing man or woman who runs in the general election wins. Georgia might be a slightly more likely win for the Democrats, but still figures at this point to be unlikely.

        I don't see MT-AL being more competitive in 2014, unless the freshman Republican gets embroiled in some kind of scandal or something. (Were you aware that MT has only one Representative?)

        I think I agree that House seats in AZ, CO, and NV will be more competitive for Democratic candidates - in seats they already hold. Chances are, the DCCC will have to play more defense than offense, unless the Republicans in the House act so extremist and obstructionist that the public gets furious, and under what scenario do you predict that? They'd have to personally go after the president, such as by impeaching him for no legitimate reason. The public hasn't punished the Republicans for obstructionism - it rewarded them big-time in the last off-year election, 2010, and turned against them mildly this year, but insufficiently to turn more than 8 of them out of office, due to gerrymandering. Maybe the President and the Democrats in the Senate will adopt a more successful strategy of boxing the Republicans in the House into either compromising or losing public support, but I'll believe it when I see it.

        If you'd like to come back in March 2014 and give us a list of the House members you expect to lose, and reasons for your predictions, all of us would be more than happy.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 03:01:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  More and better Democrats in Southern NY (0+ / 0-)

    There are 3 Republican House seats in southern New York, in areas that were devastated by storm surge from Hurricane Sandy. Do we have any progressive candidates to put in these districts next cycle?

    NY-03 Peter King (R)
       
    (Long Island, including south shore)
    NY-09 Bob Turner (R)
        (Includes the whole Rockaway Peninsula - Out due to redistricting)
    NY-13 Michael Grimm (R) (Staten Island + part of Brooklyn water front - Likely perp walk, is under investigation by the FBI)

    There are a whole lot of progressive democrats in the Occupy Sandy Relief effort, who may not call themselves progressive democrats (YET!). They are serving people whose lives have just been shattered. As they recover from this storm disaster, we need to be getting the word out that Democrats invest in infrastructure.  We can't let them learn that government's slow response here means that government should be small enough to drown in a bathtub.

    Red Cross sends a truckload of blankets to Occupy Sandy – NYTimes

    Occupy Sandy Relief started their main hub in the Rockaways with a solar powered generator from Greenpeace.  Before long, the National Guard was relying on OccupySandy to distribute food and water.  The slow motion Red Cross sent a truckload of blankets on Thursday night, 10 full days after the storm. But hey, late is better than not at all.

    Occupy Sandy's direct action, with their motto of "Solidarity, Not Charity" and their ability to organize boots on the ground, is breaking down walls that have been used to divide us. This is community organizing. It is apolitical and non-religious.

    When Greenpeace, NY National Guard, and the Red Cross are now ALL supporting Occupy Sandy, along with a long list of local organizations, you know they are doing something right!

    When we support them now, they may join us later.

    •  Sandy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LilithGardener, LordMike, jncca

      Grimm is probably safe unless he has to resign due to indictment or conviction. NY-13 is very Republican, and the only reason for the decrease in Republican voting in that district, I'm guessing, is that the very Republican South Shore of Staten Island was really brutally slammed by the storm, while the Democratic North Shore was much less badly hit.

      Peter King should be targeted, but his opponent has to be an absolute A-lister, and I would still consider the effort quite a stretch. If he retired, though, that would be a different issue.

      As you mention, Turner's district was eliminated through redistricting, so there's no target there.

      A storm is not a partisan issue. President Obama's visibility and the degree to which Federal agencies like FEMA have helped did earn some more votes for the President in New Jersey, for example, and our Independent mayor, Bloomberg, has screwed up badly in several ways, but he isn't up for reelection.

      I find the suggestion that the aftermath of this storm will lead to a surge in progressive politics a little odd. Also, a friend of mine who has been spending most of his time doing relief work said that Occupy Sandy is very disorganized as a result of Occupy's insistence on not having a real leadership, for what it's worth (he mentioned that a hospital in the Rockaways had spoken with several different "leaders" of Occupy and told them what they needed, each one said they'd get those things, and nothing happened). I know they've done some good, but there are other non-partisan organizations that my friends tell me have been more effective.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:34:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're right a storm is not partisan (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and I'm not suggesting it is.

        I'm not predicting a rise in progressive politics, per se.

        And yes, I'm sure that there is a lot of messiness in Occupy Sandy's operation. To get something off the ground starting the day after the storm, I'd give them a lot of credit. They are learning as they go.

        And I'm sure your friend is right that there are local established organizations that would have known what to do right away.  The problem is that Mayor Bloomberg was turning volunteers away and community organizations away, telling people to donate money instead.

        Even FEMA could have been here sooner; they were mobilized and ready to come in, but the Mayor told them that the city had it covered.

        I just think it will be a loss (for everyone) if people affected by the storm, and people volunteering in recovery, take away the lesson that government should be drowned in the bath-tub because other organizations stepped up when the city was slow to get it going.

      •  The other practical matter is that refugees (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike

        moved away from New Orleans and did not return.

        LA is more red now.

        Let's not let the house pick up some seats in New York, because people move away, and those who stay become more committed republicans.

      •  I don't think Peter King's opponent (0+ / 0-)

        has to be some sort of A-Lister. I think having a decent candidate with enough resources to fight is key.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 07:26:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Election-related project ideas? (0+ / 0-)

    If I do have a bit of free time on my hands right now. Ideally I could do a significant portion of it offline, as well.

    How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05

    by gabjoh on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:26:40 PM PST

  •  Election Reflection (10+ / 0-)

    Hey guys. I've been behind on the digests for a few days now, and I've finally been able to catch up. I just wanted to offer some reflection on the last week.

    I want to congratulate Joe Donnelly on his election to the Senate. He's worked so hard to earn this seat, and he definitely deserves it. After the 7500+ calls and the dozens of hours I put in, I'm certainly thankful that it all paid off. I got to meet Rep. Donnelly and Evan Bayh on Tuesday morning when I was phonebanking at a local union hall. I got pictures with both of them (that I won't share in this particular post as a privacy matter), and I got to have short conversations with them. I asked Rep. Donnelly if I could work out a summer internship with him when he becomes a Senator (I had little doubt of his election), and he said to get in touch with his office, so I look forward to working toward that. I talked with Evan Bayh and asked if he had any advice about public service (for what it's worth, I still haven't seen his 60 Minutes interview). He said that I should always work on campaigns that I feel passionately about, that I should reach out to everyone I can to keep learning, and that I should seek to find people from all political beliefs to make progress. When he made a brief remark in front of all our phonebankers, he said that "We need an independent Senator like Joe Donnelly to work with Democrats, Independents, and even sane Republicans if you're lucky enough to find them!" I also heard him speaking on the side to a union worker when I was getting my photo with Rep. Donnelly, where he noted that "When I first ran for Governor in 1988, there were no other Democratic officeholders at the state level, so we really had to be trailblazers, and the unions were always there for me. I'm still appreciative of the unions to this day for how they helped us, and we couldn't have won without them." For all the complaints about Bayh and his political machine, I still think Bayh has done a lot of good for our party and I don't think he's done helping us yet. As Bayh was leaving, after I told him I was interested in running for elective office some day, he noted that "I hope you continue working for our party, and I hope I get the opportunity to vote for you some day!" Even though I've had my skepticism of Bayh at times, he was very charming and I was very honored to meet him, and the same goes for Rep. Donnelly. I look forward to seeing where both of them go in the next few years.

    I also want to applaud Glenda Ritz for staging a massive grassroots upset by defeating Tony Bennett for Superintendent of Public Instruction. It's all the more impressive considering that Democrats haven't held this office since 1972! It will be interesting to see if she'll face major conflicts with Governor-elect Pence and a 2/3 Republican legislature. We'll see how it plays out. This is a major step forward for education policy in Indiana. At the very least, it's reassuring to know that my mom as a teacher won't be villified by the top education official in our state any longer.

    Of course, I want to congratulate President Obama on his re-election. I couldn't have picked a better person for whom to cast my very first election ballot. I feel very fortunate to have him as our President in these very trying times. I look forward to the progress our country will make over the next four years with President Obama once again at the head of our government.

    I also want to congratulate Puerto Rico on finally beginning its path to becoming the 51st state! It's taken decades to finally win statehood at the ballot box, but hopefully they can come within the fold in the next few years. I definitely look forward to it.

    That's all I have to say about the election right now, but I imagine I'll have plenty more to say as the weeks go by. Thanks again to this spectacular community for providing a great place for election analysis and a great place to just discuss politics. I've truly appreciated being a part of this community, and I hope to be a member for some time to come.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:31:16 PM PST

    •  I think a lot of the DKE crowd, myself included (12+ / 0-)

      who have a strong dislike of Bayh don't dislike him because he was too conservative because let's face it, this is Indiana.  Rather it's because he retired in 2010 with a $13 million warchest, turning a probable but not certain hold into a certain loss.

      However, it was pretty damn awesome that Donnelly won by greater than 5% and came damn close to clearing 50%.  It seems like not even having the libertarian candidate off the ballot could have saved Mourdock.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 05:42:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  bayh is a douche (9+ / 0-)

        and not because he was "too conservative" and not because he wouldn't let go of his war chest. No, it's because on leaving the senate he piously decried "strident partisanship" and "unyielding ideology" and then took a gig at fox news. It's because he said that he wanted "to do something worthwhile" in his post-senate career and then decided to get rich as a lobbyist. Bayh should not be anyone's role model.

        •  Well yeah sure that's definitely part of it (3+ / 0-)

          but to mix metaphors, that's a "symptom" rather than a "cause."  Basically it's that he was still in a great position to win and then bailed at the last second to leave us to a certain loss that he should be viewed as persona non grata among liberals.  His whole "I just hate this partisanship thing / I want to spend more time with my family" excuse was such an obvious facade since he didn't decide to retire early and waited up until the filing deadline.  I'm not going to get annoyed when a former MoC goes on to lobby because that would be like faulting someone such as Nate Silver for profiting off of book sales.  Rather it's that Bayh fucked the party over so he could make money for himself.  Basically I'm just of the opinion that people such as Bayh (or a liberal like Tom Harkin who nonetheless locks down a swing constituency) have a moral duty to advance the cause of the people because they are so well positioned to do so compared to the alternative, which for Bayh meant running for reelection, and Bayh's retirement (at age 55 no less) guaranteed that he would be replaced by a conservative Republican was the opposite of that principle.

          And to think, his father Birch Bayh is easily among my top five favorite liberal Democrats who came from red states over the past 50 years, if not my favorite.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 06:53:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  i don't care that he fucked over the party (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

            what annoys me most is that he helped perpetuate the bipartisan/centrism fetish in washington, when it turns out that he has no actual principles, centrist or otherwise, that he wasn't willing to sell out in his post-senate career.  Also, have to strongly disagree with this:

            I'm not going to get annoyed when a former MoC goes on to lobby because that would be like faulting someone such as Nate Silver for profiting off of book sales.

            Nate Silver is performing a public service and it's all the best if he can rich off of it. However, In becoming a lobbyist, Bayh showed that he was willing to sell out the public good. I have a real problem with that.
      •  As a Hoosier, I can tell you (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

        That if Bayh had run for re-election in 2010, he would have won.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:37:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  No love for Bayh here. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Most activist I know do not either. I do hope he runs again though. I will take what I can get.

        Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

        by drhoosierdem on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:09:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  What are your thoughts on the IN youth vote? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen, MoDem, jj32

      As posted above, the IN youth vote (18-29) went from 63-35 Obama in 2008 to 49-46 Romney in 2012.

      That's a pretty drastic swing - and a dispiriting one for those of us who hoped that 2008 might have been previewed a more politically competitive state down the road.

      It's possible the lack of an Obama campaign apparatus meant that Obama votes on campuses and from sporadic younger voters were way down. Certainly the Monroe Co. results suggest that was the case, although the exit polls also have the overall percentage of voters under 30 similar to what it was in 2008 (20% vs. 19%).

      •  it's also a different group of people. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Some people in that category now were only 14 when Obama won the state.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:30:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Look at Monroe County for reasoning. (3+ / 0-)

        DFA did an absolutely amazing of getting them out in 08. As James Allen has said had OFA even contested we would probably have Governor elect Gregg, and probably Congressman elect Mullen right now as well. I do not blame them for not contesting us by any means, I get it, but still saddening in many ways.

        Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

        by drhoosierdem on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:12:27 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Thank you for your great service! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, AndySonSon

      And also for this and other reports.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 06:35:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Rick Scott defends FL election process (7+ / 0-)

    and says:

    But he said the long ballot with 11 statewide amendments and a surge of early and absentee voters were part of the reason for long lines.

    Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/...

    hmm, then maybe dont cut the number of days people have to vote from 14 to 8? We want everyone to read all ten pages of that ballot right?
  •  AZ2 AZ9 Numbers Politco (9+ / 0-)

    R. Barber (i)     Dem     50.1%     131,460
    M. McSally     GOP     49.9%     131,171

    K. Sinema       Dem     48.0%     92,450
    V. Parker             GOP     45.6%     87,740
    P. Gammill     Lib     6.4%     12,289

  •  I saw a petition on facebook (8+ / 0-)

    today to draft Vi Simpson as the next State Dem Chair in Indiana. This seems like a good idea, so long as she cleans out the people that are in there now.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:32:27 PM PST

  •  The 218th seat (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, MichaelNY, WisJohn

    By my count, these are the 17 closest losses in the House:

    CO-06
    FL-02
    FL-10
    IL-13
    IN-02
    KY-06
    MI-01
    MI-11
    MN-06
    NE-02
    NY-11
    NY-19
    NY-23
    NY-27
    NC-09
    OH-16
    PA-12

    What's sobering is that it looks to me like the 218th seat was NY-19 (Gibson), where the Democrat lost by 7.0%.  Thus, despite barely winning the cumulative House vote, the Democrats would have basically needed to win the national House vote by 7% to gain a majority (if that 7% margin were applied evenly across the country).  The redistricting is that problematic.

    •  and some of these districts will be hard to regain (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca, WisJohn

      KY-06, NC-09, OH-16, PA-12, IN-02: Without Chandler, Critz & Sutton running, and without IN-02 being open, these districts are probably off the table. On the other hand, there are districts like Miller's CA-31 that aren't on this list but where Dems have an excellent chance.

    •  There were some said redistricting no problem (0+ / 0-)

      here on kos, there were some very virulent attacks mounted against the idea that redistricting was going to hurt Dems in 2012.   Along the lines that people were uninformed fools if they didn't realize the Dems would gain as many as they lost due to redistricting.

      •  The House doesn't flip during Prez years usually (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        The last time it flipped in a Presidential year seems to be 1948.  Granted it doesn't flip much period compared to the Senate, but the trendline suggests that just looking at gerrymandering won't give you a full picture of the state of play there.  We will probably need D+5 at least to flip it though, but Republicans needed R+7 to do that in 2010 despite gerrymandering most of the districts in 2000.

        Not saying this is a situation that doesn't suck, but it isn't fatal.  The House is winnable, but it will take a lot of effort to do so and, unless Obama proves to be wildly popular in 2 years owing to some very good economic numbers or the like, it probably won't be happening in 2014 either.

      •  That doesn't sound like something (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, Zack from the SFV

        that would have happened at DKE, where we actually analyze things and don't just alternately cheerlead and panic, as happens in some main site threads - though some of both of those things happen here, too.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 10:40:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  IL-Sen 2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Chad Koppie, a Kane County Regional Board of Schools member, apparently announced his intention to run as a Republican in the 2014 U.S. Senate race in Illinois.

    I'm not sure if this information is correct, but, from what one of Koppie's backers told me in the comments section of this blog post, Koppie ran against George Ryan in the 1998 IL-Gov Republican primary and got approximately 20% of the vote.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 07:59:49 PM PST

  •  Why Kirkpatrick's race called (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, sapelcovits

    but Sinema's isn't? the current margins are exactly the same.

  •  If Puerto Rico became a state, which states (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    would loose congressional districts? Would Democrats benefit from it?

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 11:23:58 PM PST

    •  seeing as Dems would win PR's 5 house seats and 2 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      senate seats it'd be a win.  IIRC Minnesota is first on the chopping block to lose a seat, after that I couldn't say.  

    •  MN, CA, TX, WA, FL would lose seats, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCal, MichaelNY, itskevin

      per this chart.

    •  *lose (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 11:47:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  None (6+ / 0-)

      They'd most likely simply add five seats until the next cycle. By that time we have no idea which states would lose a seat to Puerto Rico other than Minnesota.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Sat Nov 10, 2012 at 11:49:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Will Congress address their approved plebiscite (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      next session?

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:17:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I can't wait for the inevitable battle (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        when right-wing radio jocks and some Fox News anchors start calling PR statehood a ploy to elect more Democrats, and drive a wedge.  Some Republicans who used to support it will chicken out and try to kick the can down the road.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:19:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hopefully (0+ / 0-)

        It could potentially be addressed in comprehensive immigration reform (relevant by the fact that its lack of statehood and economic condition have resulted in its long term migration of Puerto Ricans from the island to the mainland).

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

        by wwmiv on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:19:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What does that have to do with immigration (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          PR citizens are US citizens and there's no legal snafu or illegal immigration going on when moving to the mainland.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:31:46 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not what I mean (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico

            This is also a reply to Michael below:

            What I mean by this is that internal migration patterns are as important a factor as external migration into the United States.

            One of the biggest problems for Puerto Rico is that the talent invariably moves to the mainland and never comes back, depriving it of a good economic boost. I think that approving statehood would help somewhat in reducing that tendency.

            As for my assertion that it could be taken up with immigration reform, I do not mean that it should be taken up as a single bill. I mean that it should be part of the same legislative agenda because internal population movements matter as well. And because Puerto Ricans view themselves as a nationality (correctly, in my view) there is no legitimate reason to not see the long-term out-migration of Puerto Ricans from Puerto Rico as a problem, nor is there a legitimate reason to not associate this problem with immigration - as that is exactly what it is: migration from Puerto Rico to the mainland.

            Immigration reform isn't simply about illegals. The assertion that it is implicitly buys into the framing that Republicans have spent decades trying to build (I.E. "those damned illegals"). Immigration reform is about many things. It is about the people that we let in, how we let them in, how do we deal with the border, how do we deal with the people already here, who do we allow to stay, what classes of people should we expel and how to do so, how do we deal with internal population movements, how do we deal with amnesty and house defectors, what strings do we attach to government services with relation to immigrants both illegal and legal. It's a multifaceted issue that can't simply be boiled down to those who are here illegally.

            As for electoral implications (I had to include this in order to feel comfortable with this extended comment, the bulk of which is admittedly not electoral focused and I apologize) I would assume that both Puerto Rican statehood and comprehensive immigration reform would be taken up simultaneously (and here is another quite important connection between the two issues) because they'd be beneficial to Republicans' new efforts to attract Latinos of all stripes to their party.  

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:16:20 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I fundamentally disagree with you on this (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Inoljt, andgarden, Zack from the SFV

              Puerto Rico is a part of the United States. Migration from one part of the United States to another is not an immigration issue. Many Hawaiians consider themselves another nationality, too. When Hawaii was admitted as the 50th state, was it as part of an agenda on immigration? I don't think so, and I don't see why that's any more relevant this time, either.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:51:48 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Did I ever say that Puerto Rico (0+ / 0-)

                Isn't a part of the United States? The thing is that it is an issue precisely because Puerto Ricans say that it is an issue.

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:59:13 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  If the reason to admit Puerto Rico as a state (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  andgarden, askew, Zack from the SFV

                  is to prevent movement of Puerto Ricans to the mainland, that's not a good reason. The reason should be because they are Americans who want to be a state. Conflating that in any way with immigration is a mistake, and might be politically disadvantageous to Puerto Rico's admission to the Union.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:18:56 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  No no no (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike, SaoMagnifico

                    You misunderstand completely.

                    I do not want to prevent them from coming to the mainland. I think that statehood is a multifaceted issue and will help in many respects. Among them is that it will bring development to the island in a positive way that will help them maintain their population in a GOOD way so that they can maintain their cultural identity. If people want to move out, fine! They can! If they want to move in, fine! They can! It's their choice.

                    But the massive decline in population is not healthy for that region nor for their cultural identity.

                    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                    by wwmiv on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:35:38 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  In other words (0+ / 0-)

                      Statehood is an immigration issue insofar as it will bring development to the island which will make people with the means to leave want to stay instead of leave. Which is a good thing for the island.

                      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                      by wwmiv on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:40:48 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Again (0+ / 0-)

                        I don't think that whether people move to or from Puerto Rico should or will be an issue in regard to statehood. Maybe it is for some Puerto Ricans, but it won't be to the Congress.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:53:38 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Again (0+ / 0-)

                          You misunderstand me.

                          I'm not saying that this is something that is an issue (in the sense of the word that you're using) in statehood. By which it is meant that it could cause problems in gaining statehood, or that it will prevent statehood, or any other factor of that nature.

                          I'm meaning it in the sense that the emigration from Puerto Rico is an argument FOR statehood because it will help (but not solve) to restore a healthy population balance to the island.

                          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                          by wwmiv on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:06:51 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  You think I don't understand you (3+ / 0-)

                            but I do. I just disagree that anything about migration is an argument for statehood that Congress will or even should be interested in.

                            To me, the only arguments are about whether a clear majority of Puerto Ricans want Puerto Rico to become a state, and whether it would be a viable state. There will be debate about the co-official status of the Spanish language, but that should be a settled issue, in view of the longtime membership of New Mexico in the Union.

                            I think the referendum is a legitimate statement of Puerto Rican popular opinion, so I support Puerto Rican statehood.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 04:37:15 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  Actually I disagree w/you Michael in that... (7+ / 0-)

                          ...I think Congress, if it debates statehood, likely will consider and openly debate that very thing among a million other things.

                          There's no way a statehood discussion happens in our real-life politics without ad naseum discussions of what impact it would have on both Puerto Rico and the rest of the United States.

                          I look at it very narrowly, politically, in terms of more Democratic House seats and two more Democratic Senators, which are reasons I think that eventually would assert themselves in making it very difficult to get GOP support for statehood.

                          But economic arguments will be big in the discussion and probably drown out political arguments.  And I think getting Congress to approve statehood will be an uphill climb, not unlike how Marylanders, Democrats and Republicans alike, really don't want the District of Columbia absorbed back into Maryland.

                          One thing about Puerto Rico, in a lot of ways it's the developing world, not like Western society at all.  Things like continuous electrical power service and other public services are spotty and uneven to a degree that would shock and enrage us if we had to suffer it in any of the 50 states or D.C.  This is going to get raised and discussed as an obstacle, making people fear Puerto Rico somehow would drag us down as much as statehood would help them or us.

                          This is not a reflection of my own views, but where I think the national conversation is likely to go.

                          I really hope we make Puerto Rico a state.  That Hawaii is a state does, I think, make it easier, since it shows we can culturally integrate a culturally and geographically very different place.

                          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:12:21 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                    •  Completely agreed (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, wwmiv

                      Puerto Rico is suffering for being locked in a second-class status. The people recognize that on the island; they voted to change their status, and if you accept that first result, the second result is for statehood.

                      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:12:49 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

        •  I think you've suggested this several times (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          Tying Puerto Rican statehood to immigration strikes me as insulting. Puerto Ricans are American citizens. This isn't about the status of their citizenship, and relates to immigration in absolutely no way. It's only about whether a change in the status of Puerto Rico to statehood will or won't be approved. No other issue should be dealt with in the legislation, unless it is to grant statehood to DC.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:57:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  See above (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, propjoe, jncca

            But also this:

            D.C. statehood requires a constitutional amendment to remove the three electoral votes already granted to the district.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:17:06 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Huh!!! (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

                If DC or New Columbia (or whatever it would be called) becomes a state, then they keep their electoral votes. If there is no federal district, then the amendment granting the federal district its electoral votes is obsolete. I don't think it needs another amendment, but I am not a constitutional scholar or attorney.

                  DC is 51, PR is 52.

              Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

              by Zack from the SFV on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:05:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  I think you are misunderstanding (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            fearlessfred14, wwmiv

            I don't think wwmiv is saying he has a problem with Puerto Ricans moving to or living in the continental United States. He's saying that because Puerto Rico lacks the economic opportunity afforded to the 50 states, it prompts many Puerto Ricans to leave home, which causes Puerto Rico's economy to suffer. It's basically a "brain drain".

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:14:44 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Puerto Rico (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Admission will not be granted under the vote.

        At the least, a new vote would be required with an 1]up or down statehood vote, with 2]nonresidents not allowed to vote.

    •  Puerto Rico (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think the most likely scenario is that 5 or six seats are added to the total permanently 2020.  In the meantime 5 seats would just be added, with no losses.

  •  NC Results (7+ / 0-)

    Dems did well statewide.

    So very close for LG, Coleman outperformed Dalton by over six points in a heartbreaking loss. Democratic elected officials held all of their offices. Our Agriculture Commissioner and Labor candidates both got respectable margins at 46%. Not a bad not all and all considering. If President Obama had won here it would have been absolutely amazing. But I'll take Florida over NC any day of the week!

    http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/...

    Support Shelli Yoder for Congress! http://www.shelliyoderforcongress.com/home/

    by drhoosierdem on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:07:55 AM PST

  •  Had my celebratory drink early this evening. (4+ / 0-)

    A Jager bomb and a Scarlet bomb (the shot is made up of amaretto, SoCo, and sloe gin) at a bar called "The Golden Rail."  Quite nice, though the latter was a bit too sweet.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:26:01 AM PST

  •  538's best and worst pollsters in last 3 weeks (7+ / 0-)

    is up.

    The big takeaway:  internet polls did well.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

    •  And RAss and Gallup stunk up the joint, of course (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike, itskevin, askew
      Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average.

      . . . .

      Gallup has now had three poor elections in a row. In 2008, their polls overestimated Mr. Obama’s performance, while in 2010, they overestimated how well Republicans would do in the race for the United States House.

    •  I'm still skeptical of internet polls (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

      Rasmussen had a couple cycles of seemingly nailing it, which is why internet GOPers became so giddy by their more recent GOP-happy polling the past couple cycles.

      The Rasmussen experience is why I held my breath when PPP's late polls this time contained so much good news for us.  But PPP was largely right, except for their own state where they missed.

      On internet polls, I want to see them perform like this a couple more times before I truly trust them.  The "panel" method of sampling is not consistent with what I think campaign pollsters trust, it's really a focus group more than a poll of a random or representative sample.  And attempting to draw a random sample is necessarily going to have response bias, you get more engaged people willing to participate when the real electorate has many more passive people.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:40:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Final results aren't in (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, LordMike, askew, MichaelNY

        Won't change things much but I still would wait to do this. I would note Pew said 50-47 using a traditional phone method incorporating cells. It isn't likely to shift beyond 51-48 with rounding so I'm happy to continue to call them the gold standard. At least with regard to their final poll.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:00:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  One interesting question is (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          were Pew's earlier polls correct, in some sense?

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:48:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Was Obama up 10 in the spring? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Was Romney up 4 in October? I really doubt it.

            •  So then what changes? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              What about their methodology makes it inaccurate and then accurate?  That's not a rhetorical question.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:58:43 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  My guess (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCal, MichaelNY

                is just random variance, and they were lucky that their most accurate poll was their last one.

                But if we need some fancier explanation than that... maybe it becomes easier to identify the folks who are most likely to vote as you approach the election, and earlier polls are more likely to over-react to temporary shifts in momentum? That would sort of fit Pew's pattern this year, where when they missed they tended to miss in the direction of the candidate who had the more energized supporters at the moment.

                •  I don't think it luck at all (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, itskevin

                  Considering they've now basically nailed the last three presidential elections. Nobody can match that. They also did better than anybody but Ipsos on the 2010 generic House ballot.

                  But just as their final poll is always accurate they do seem particularly sensitive to swings throughout the year. It was very much like that in 2004 as I posted the night of "Romney +4 in Pew - Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhh."

                  http://www.dailykos.com/...

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:39:51 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  The only problem with this methodology (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is if there actually was a trend towards Obama over the last 3 weeks, the pollsters that picked up on that trend would be penalized.  This model assumes there was no trend at all and that Obama was ahead by 2.6 points throughout the final 3 weeks.  

    •  I thought the big takeaway was that (8+ / 0-)

      almost all thet polls had a republican lean.

      It's kind of a hilarious metaphor for the political discourse in this country as a whole: the left wing hangs their hat on polls that are done scientifically, albeit with rather conservative assumptions, and the right wing trusts only the one conservative propagandist polling outfit and assumes liberal bias in all other polls, and the media just can't decide who's right! And of course it turns out that even the "left wing" pollsters have a conservative bias.

    •  A problem is Nate mixes state with national polls (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      National polling is an entirely different thing than state polling.  Except for the well known garbage polls (Gallup...), the national polls mostly fell into a rut of 1-2%.  But a 1-2% national miss is not like a 1-2% miss in Colorado.  A national miss at 1% represents three million voters, and essentially means that pollster will miss all the swing states as a group.

      A poll asserting a 1% (or even 2%) margin is saying either that California will represent more than 100% of Obama's margin and he is losing the rest of the country, or that Obama would only win CA by 5% or so.  It is a massive miss both in terms of real numbers, and the texture of the national race.

      In contrast, Marist gets punished for trying to be precise with much smaller numbers in a wide variety of states, where 1 or 2% represents a very small number of people, who could even be impacted by the weather or some oddball polling practice (like in AZ).

      It would be better if he had a chart for national polls, and another chart for state ones.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 12:38:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Latest popular vote update (7+ / 0-)

    Obama up by 3,256,000.  50.5 to 47.9.

  •  today's award for sloppy journalism (15+ / 0-)

    goes to the NYT, for their write-up of AZ election results

    But in a surprising twist, Republicans appeared likely to gain the seat formerly held by Gabrielle Giffords. Ron Barber, the former chief of staff to Ms. Giffords, scored an emotional victory in the special election in June to replace his former boss, and redistricting gave him a district slightly friendlier to Democrats. But Martha McSally, a Republican former Air Force pilot, led by a little more than 1,000 votes on Wednesday morning, with all precincts reporting.
    no mention of the early and provisional ballots (that now have Barber up). "Likely" my ass.
    Two Democratic former representatives who were ousted in 2010, Ann Kirkpatrick and Kyrsten Sinema, also clung to narrow leads Wednesday.
    /headdesk

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 06:25:12 AM PST

  •  Huntsman for secretary of state? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike
    •  No chance. If he had never left China gig... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, askew, MichaelNY, MetroGnome

      I think he could have had a real shot, but you can't trust the bugger now.  And we don't need to puff this guy's resume up more for 2016.  

      Kerry should get the gig.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:15:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No Kerry! (3+ / 0-)

        I do not want Scott Brown taking that seat!  

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:18:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes Kerry! (0+ / 0-)

          Have Patrick run in the SE for the seat!

          They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

          by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:23:38 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          marieperoy

          from Massachusetts, so I probably don't really know what I'm talking about here, but I don't understand all this concern about Brown successfully taking Kerry's seat.

          This is a man who mostly won in the first place because Coakley ran a shitty campaign.  And he can't exactly cruise on the nice guy/moderate image anymore, after the campaign he ran against Warren.  So what reason is there to believe he'd be such a threat to our holding Kerry's seat, especially in a state that's normally so blue?

          •  several reasons (4+ / 0-)

            Brown has already run two senate campaigns in three years, so he has a statewide apparatus already in place.  

            Second, he's able to raise significantly more money than most of his democratic opponents.  

            Third, a crucial issue for warren, the composition of the senate, won't be a factor.  Brown winning won't make the senate republican controlled, if anything, the issue would favor brown by saying that he would limit the democratic senate and move it closer towards the center.

            Fourth, who would run?  Governors have a hard time when they appoint themselves to a seat, I'm not sure how that would work with a special election, if it's closer to a self appointment, or an election.  If someone else runs, well, mass candidates sometimes aren't used to running good statewide campaigns.  It's what happens when a state favors one party for so long, members of that party can get lazy and forget how to campaign.  We saw that with coakley and we could see it with another dem office holder who hasn't aced a real campaign in a decade.  

            Fifth, it means another potential seat we have to defend in 2014.  Let's say brown thinks 2014 will be a 2010 and lets a weak dem win the special and then runs and wins the 2014 election, getting 6 years in the senate.

            Warren was able to overcome all of these problems (except 5, which isn't relevant to her situation) because she was an exceptional candidate and it was a presidential election year.  Most of the dem advantages will be weakened or gone in a special, unless there's a really good candidate, while Brown's advantages will still be intact.  Heck, if he allows third party spending, a 2012 mistake I'm sure he regrets, he could be stronger in the special.  

            Find someone else Obama, please.

            Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

            by DougTuttle on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:31:34 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  We should not be "giving up" any seats... (3+ / 0-)

              ...in blue areas.  We'd lose a good liberal for a putz.  That is unacceptable.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 09:24:49 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Not to mention there are 7 seats up in red states (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, MichaelNY

                Before we even consider potentially competive races in NH, IA, OR, CO and MN. Not to mention possible retirements causing headaches in MI and NJ.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 09:33:27 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  And then Sen. Menendez would be... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, MichaelNY

              Senate Foreign Affairs Committee chairman. Ugh.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:16:16 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think this is what will keep Kerry in Senate... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

                I've been thinking about this and I think we could see a 2 yr "place holder" Sec of State and then come 2014 Kerry will not run for re-election - but by that time I suspect Brown will have declared to run for Gov - opening up his seat for a full election rather than a special now.  Kerry will be named Sec of State for the final two years of the Obama Admin to cap his career.  

                Menendez problem would still be there, but at the same time GOP could take the Senate anyways.  

                As for who would be Sec State replacing Clinton - Tom Donilon.  First two years of re-election will be domestic heavy, and then come the midterms with the usual losses, it becomes FP heavy the second half.  So Dems will focus on tax reform and immigration as the big ticket domestic issues the next two years and then Kerry is moved into State in time for the FP push.  

                They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

                by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:54:57 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Don't worry (0+ / 0-)

        He's in no danger of going anywhere in electoral politics.

  •  NYT: Christian Conservatives Failed (10+ / 0-)

    ...to sway voters.

    “This election signaled the last where a white Christian strategy is workable,” said Robert P. Jones, chief executive of the Public Religion Research Institute, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research and education organization based in Washington.

    “Barack Obama’s coalition was less than 4 in 10 white Christian,” Dr. Jones said. “He made up for that with not only overwhelming support from the African-American and Latino community, but also with the support of the religiously unaffiliated.”

    The Christian Conservative movement in America is starting to wake up to the fact that all of the king's horses and all of the king's men can't put the W 2000-2004 evangelical-led coalition back together again.  

    How does the Christian Conservative movement adapts with the changes in American culture - or do they at all?  This is one of the things I'm fascinated to see play out over the next four years.  

    Republican, MI-11, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

    by Bart Ender on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 06:52:09 AM PST

  •  Dem electoral college advantage (5+ / 0-)

    After the 2012 election, the Republicans really should be thinking hard about whether they want to continue with the electoral college, as it is now conspicuously loaded against them. On an even national swing, they would  require a PV advantage in excess of 2% to win the 2016 election. They also are pretty much required to win all 3 of the large swing states near the 0 mark: FL, OH and VA.

    By and large, the Republicans did relatively well in states that didn't matter, which speaks volumes for the relative quality of the campaigns. Their biggest "achievement" was in putting  previously marginal states like IN, MO and MT firmly into the R column. As a result, even if Obama had won by 10 points nationally he would only have picked up 15 more EVs than he actually pocketed. Apart from NC, it's very hard to see  target states at the presidential level for whoever the Democratic candidate is in 2016. But the Republican candidate will have a far worse problem: too many tough must-win states.

    •  Depends (0+ / 0-)

      I have to think race played a factor in many states where a white Democrat might do better. Then again, this is likely as good as it gets with African-American turnout and share. Need to see the final tally in AZ but the trends there should come eventually. Same goes for Georgia, Texas and South Carolina. Though probably not before 2016. Obviously also depends on the environment. Say Obama has a 60% approval rating, the unemployment rate is 6% and Hillary is facing Jim DeMint. On the flip side Obama has a 35% approval rating and Jeb Bush is facing Andrew Cuomo...

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 07:55:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  GOP may switch their tactics and try (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      To institute EVs by Congressional districts in states they control  such as PA, VA, FL, and MI. That would make things much tougher.

      •  Reps are set against it though (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, jj32, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        They don't want the presidential campaigns coming in and hurting their own re-election bids.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 09:15:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I hope so but National GOP want to win (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          5 of the last 6 times Democrats won the popular vote. Most Democrats in Florida and really across these states are packed into a few districts. Yes, there may be vulnerable state Republican Reps but generally, the state legislative maps mirror Congressional maps. Give 11 evs from PA and 17 evs from FL and maybe 11 from Michigan and that is a problem in the future.

      •  The biggest threats are PA, MI and WI (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

        I know Jon Husted's 2016 plan is to split Ohio by CD, therefore guaranteeing Ohio (no matter what) would always split its electoral votes either 4-14 or 6-12 if the Democrat "wins".  That is a severe threat, but it is only a severe threat if they touch Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. We need to have all of those electoral votes.

        •  They already considered it in WI and PA (5+ / 0-)

          Here's why it didn't happen:

          PA: The legislative gerrymanders are shaky enough already. The last thing a SEPA legislator in a marginal seat wants is a bunch of OFA volunteers from Philly canvassing his district, because there's a good chance they would spread fluff literature about his opponent.

          WI: The Wisconsin GOP is notably self-important, and they didn't install their choice for RNC chairman for nothing. Since they packed WI-03, leaving only WI-01, WI-07 and WI-08 competitive, they'd be halving the number of electoral votes at stake, which could harm their ability to get resources from the national party.

          What's more, I don't think Scott Walker would sign such a bill. He wants every one of Wisconsin's ten electoral votes for himself in 2016, and the current system would strengthen his electability argument.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

          by fearlessfred14 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:12:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Also, there's a significant possibility (note, not (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            at this time a probability) that Corbett could be vulnerable and replaced by Jan., 2015---leaving little time to implement an unpopular (for many Republicans) proposal. Kane seems serious about checking Corbett when he was ag.

            Tha Pa. leg., even when all GOP, is remarkably slow in making radical changes (witness the many failed GOP governors attempts to remove unionized state stores).

            "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

            by TofG on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:12:32 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Btw, if Ohio put in an ev by Congressional (0+ / 0-)

              District could that be repealed (like the anti-union bill)?

              "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

              by TofG on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:14:12 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  I got a question (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, WisJohn

    how many senate races do ppl think the tea party will fuck up, or as Haley Barbour would say "piss away" in 2014?

    Whether it's electing unfit nominees for the general, and the Dem jus trounces them. Or the they knock off the Republican incumbent in the primary, and that nominee gets trounce in the general.

    I don't it's gonna stop. Didn't this year, nor do I think it happens this yr. 3 cycles in a row.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:11:59 AM PST

  •  If PR gets statehood (4+ / 0-)

    and we permanently add their house seats, would nate need to change his website name 545? (or 540 for that matter if we didn't)

  •  I dont think Obama appointing Susan Collins (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, marieperoy, askew, MichaelNY, abgin

    to anything is a good idea. I mean, we'd end up with a much more conservative LePage appointee for the next two years.

    Yeah, it might make the 2014 election easier, but the next two years is critical in terms of getting legislation, like comprehensive immigration reform, passed.

    And there is a good chance Collins retires in 2014 anyway.

  •  Allen West nets 535 votes in partial recount (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ChadmanFL, MichaelNY, WisJohn

    "@gbennettpost" tweets: "In partial St. Lucie Co recount, Murphy lost 667 votes and West lost 132; net gain for West of 535 votes; overall Murphy lead 0.58%."

    I think that leaves Murphy's lead at 1907 votes? Still above mandatory recount.

  •  Lindsay Graham (11+ / 0-)

    According to TPM he is the Republican leader on immigration reform negotiations. He is asking to be primaried. Who do we think will do it? Trey Gowdy? Are there any plausible wingnuts who hold statewide office I dont know about?

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:37:18 AM PST

  •  Another article about how GOP was genuinely... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    ... caught off-guard by the election, and how their polling all assumed far fewer minorities and young voters than either Democratic internals or public polls.

    According to this Politico piece, Romney's internals had him up in FL, VA, and CO on Election Day, and tied in OH and PA.

    And this pattern was repeated throughout the country, in congressional races as well.

  •  I'd just like to point out that BDTP (20+ / 0-)

    Pretty much nailed the election.

    Our final Pre-Massie-Compas result (and really, we know they ACTUALLY won, but that's a different story) was 51-48.

  •  Me on Sunday September 16 (7+ / 0-)

    "All in all, this election year has looked so similar to the previous time an incumbent president ran for re-election that it wouldn't surprise me if the final result was also 51-48."

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Can't take credit because my final prediction was actually tighter but if you read the whole comment it does look like the height of each convention bounce was somewhat indicitive of the final result.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 01:47:00 PM PST

  •  a good summary of the most signficant change in (5+ / 0-)

    Oregon politics:

    In 1995, when Republicans began a near decade's control of the Oregon Legislature, every state legislator from Washington County was a Republican.

    ...

    And, as a largely upscale suburb, the county was supposed to be Republican. Possibly its political identity was specified in Oregon land-use policy.

    But after Tuesday, exactly one Republican state legislator has a purely Washington County district -- state Sen. Bruce Starr -- along with two Republican state representatives from districts split between Washington and Clackamas counties. The defeat of freshman GOP Reps. Katie Eyre and Shawn Lindsay completed, at least for now, a process that has seen Republican House members driven from Beaverton, from Aloha and unincorporated Washington County and now from their last redoubts in Hillsboro.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:18:36 PM PST

    •  damn (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:20:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  About the third paragraph (0+ / 0-)
        And, as a largely upscale suburb, the county was supposed to be Republican. Possibly its political identity was specified in Oregon land-use policy.
        Is this just a joke about the county's ancestral Republicanism, or has Washington County, OR had land use policies explicitly designed to keep it conservative the way Washington County, WI does?

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison)

        by fearlessfred14 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:37:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  probably the opposite (2+ / 0-)

          the county government has remained under the control of conservatives, who've pushed lax land use regulation and tried to develop as much as they could.  As a result there's a lot of affordable housing, and a lot of businesses which have together attracted a growing minority population, in particular Latinos and Asian Americans of various backgrounds.  Many of the precincts that Kerry lost and Obama won are places that went from only a few dozen Democratic voters to a few hundred because of development.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:48:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  not just Oregon (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, ChadmanFL

      I'd say in American politics: realignment of both the Upper South and suburbs, ending the older coalition of blue-collar Whites + minorities vs. Northeastern WASPs + suburbanites + evangelicals.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 02:58:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If/when OR gains a 6th district (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      how do Democrats attain 5-1?  Do they split Portland in two or something?

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:06:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  3 or 4 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, aamail6

        Multnomah County's already split in 3.

        Schrader could probably win without any of Multnomah County.  Bonamici probably would be safe without it as well.  I'd argue to put the west side into a district that goes up into Columbia County, then down the coast, and the east side into a district that goes down the gorge.  Here's an example of a map I drew:

        Photobucket

        Suzanne Bonamici gets a pretty safe district of the main cities and suburbs of Washington and Yamhill counties, with some of SW Portland.  Some lucky Republican gets a safe district that's mostly in Southern Oregon.  Blumenauer or another Democrat gets a safe district in eastern Portland that stretches down the gorge.  DeFazio or another Dem gets a safer district based in Corvallis, Albany, Eugene-Springfield, and Bend.  Schrader gets a in just Clackamas and Marion counties.  Another new district on the coast from Coos County up, that goes into the north side of Portland, definitely Democratic leaning.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:21:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  How great would it be to have two patrick murphys (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    in congress?  I think losing the Attorney General primary should demote Patrick Murphy back to US House unless he's running for governor in 2014.  Anyone know what district he was redistricted into?  

    •  Also, when Niki Tsongas retires (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, jj32, bythesea

      Lowell Mayor Patrick Murphy could run.  He's an indie, but he's very pro-labor.  Just a thought.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:05:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't want any Indies in blue districts (0+ / 0-)

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:13:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I know, I was just running my mouth about Murphys (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          If he ran as a Dem, that would be different.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:30:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Murphy (PA) lives in Bristol I believe (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, itskevin

      which is in Bucks County. So still PA-08.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:11:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  he should run if Fitzpatrick keeps his 3 term (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen, jj32

        pledge, which I think he might.  If so, it'd be open in 2016.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:13:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  although eyeballing it, the district is now R+2 or (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          3. an R+3 in the suburbs is pretty tough.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:34:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  take that back (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, aamail6

            only R+1 or R+2.  We can win it.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:47:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I think he could get an appointment (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          in the Obama administration. He was an early and strong supporter of the president.

          Obviously, by 2016 though, he could look at another political run.

  •  Minor party performance last Tuesday... (5+ / 0-)

    Quite a lot of information from The Green Papers.

    Gary Johnson came in third place. Currently he has 0.98% of the vote, which is just shy of Edward Clark's 1980 performance for the Libertarians, when he got 1.06%. He is the first Libertarian candidate to break 1 million votes, though. His best states were New Mexico (3.5%), Montana (2.9%), and Alaska (2.5%).

    In fourth place was the Green Party ticket headed by Jill Stein, with 0.35% of the vote. It would probably have been hard to do worse than Cynthia McKinney, who got 0.12% in 2008. Still, the Green Party is a completely irrelevant force in national politics and it doesn't look likely to change. Her best states were Maine (1.3%), Oregon (1.1%), and Alaska (1.0%).

    Fifth place was Virgil Goode of the Constitution Party. His 0.1% showing was a drop from Chuck Baldwin's 0.15% in 2008. He didn't hit 1% in any states; his best were South Dakota (0.7%), Wyoming (0.6%), and North Dakota (0.4%). Despite some suggestion that he would draw votes from Romney in Virginia, it didn't turn out that way: he got 0.36%. He picked up 2.6% in his home county of Franklin, and for whatever reason got 4.2% in Westmoreland County.

    And after that was Roseanne Barr, on the Peace & Freedom ticket, who got over 50,000 votes despite being only on the ballot in three states. Of course, most of those votes came from California.

  •  NY Redistricting: Wanted to try it out, but.... (0+ / 0-)

    DRA either crashes or is too slow when I try to load NY.  Any idea how to make it run faster?

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 03:38:21 PM PST

  •  Popular vote: Obama crosses the 62 million mark (10+ / 0-)

    Now leads by 3,290,000.

  •  IL-GOV: Kirk Dillard is running again (4+ / 0-)

    This is a few days old, so maybe it was already mentioned.

    He would probably be the strongest GOP candidate, assuming he could make it through the primary. It will be interesting to see how crowded that primary gets(or doesnt get), with Schock expressing interesting. I think Dan Rutherford could run as well.

    I hope Madigan runs for governor vs Senate(assuming the seat is open, and I'm not sure Durbin is retiring). Gov will be the harder seat to hold, while I think there are several Dems who could win the Senate seat.

    Although one wildcard will be how many Dems would rather run for Senate in the presidential year of 2016.

  •  Jesse Jackson Jr. plea deal could include jail (5+ / 0-)

    time, in addition to resigning from Congress(obviously), and paying back misspent campaign funds, according to CBS Chicago.

    Negotiations could be wrapped up the end of the year.

    link.

  •  Big news in AZ-02! (17+ / 0-)

    2539 ballots were counted in deep-red Cochise County today, and Barber WON them by 41 votes! He is trailing by 21% in the county, and he had lost the 9000 ballots counted since Wednesday by 19%, so this is a big deal.

    He leads by 331 overall now, and there can't be that much left in Cochise, so I'd say things are  looking very good for Barber after today.

  •  Lol. (15+ / 0-)

    So apparently I've been posting enough about Puerto Rico that this came up in my ads:

    "Hot Puerto Rico Women

    Puerto Rico Women - Refined & Beautiful. Fast Dating Tools!"

  •  With most states finished counting ballots (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, DCal, MichaelNY

    I figured I would go ahead and color the congressional map by which party has won each seat, but also which seats were within 5% and 10% of being flipped:

    Photobucket
    Democrats won 201 to Republicans 234
    Dems came within 5% in 12 seats (pink)
    Dems came within 10% in 17 seats (medium red)
    Reps came within 5% in 19 seats (light blue)
    Reps came within 10% in 13 seats (medium blue)

    For comparison, I've colored one showing the same thing as well as the seats which both parties have won for the 2002-2010 lines (or 2007-2010 for GA and TX, ignore that the map uses different lines for these states):
    Photobucket
    (click for full size)

    Exactly 100 seats were won by both parties (purple)
    19 seats saw Dems get within 5%.
    14 seats saw Dems get within 10%
    17 seats saw Reps get within 5%
    14 seats saw Reps get within 10%

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 05:02:13 PM PST

    •  Funny looking at California (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Republicans probably control like 80% plus of the land in CA.  And yet the delegation is going to be 38D/15R.

    •  So Dems gain a net 9 in Illinois (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, askew

      And a net 8 in California, but end up only with an 8 seat net gain nationwide.

    •  So, so... (7+ / 0-)

      ...pissed that we couldn't flip MI-01.  I've flipped each day since the election wondering who is the blame.  Today, I'm back on the candidate.  I was pretty confindent McDowell had the election, but I also remember saying here a month of two ago that if McDowell didn't stop running those cutesy-ass "I'm a hay farmer" commercials, he could be in danger.  This is not a district to play around in with humor, when you know you're runninga against a repugnant, hard-ass incumbent who gets elected in spite of his discomfort in dealing with his constituents.

      He ran the damn-near exact campaign he ran in 2010, which was a mistake considering by how much he lost by in 2010.  If he thought the president was going to drag him over the line, he was wrong, and now the district will continue to suffer because of it.  It pains me to say it, but I want Stupak dragged out of retirement.  He's about as emotionally fickle a politician as you'll ever find, but anything would be preferable to Benishek, and Stupak would absolutely shut out Dan in the UP portion of the district.

      •  I'd agree that it's McDowell's own doing (5+ / 0-)

        We should have definitely won this district and probably would have under the old lines which were about 1% more Democratic.

        That district along with PA-12 (by nominating Altmire) we should have definitely won this year.  In fact, of the 12 seats we came within 5% of winning, I think we could have won a full 6 of them:
        IL-13 Don't nominate Gill/Gill gets tacks to the center/gerrymander it marginally better
        IN-02 DCCC/HMP target the race
        MI-01 McDowell campaigns better
        NE-02 DCCC/HMP target the race
        PA-12 nominate Altmire
        NY-23 DCCC/HMP target the race/field a stronger, more moderate candidate

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 06:42:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why exactly did we lose KY-06? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, LordMike

          I remember there was a lot of confidence in Chandler earlier this year.

          •  one theory I read (5+ / 0-)

            was coal.  The gerrymander took in coal counties, which Chandler had never represented before.  Chandler voted for Cap and Trade. (the House passing that bill only for it to die in the Senate is clearly Obama's biggest failure)

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:07:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's quite possible (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, borodino21

              I remember a lot of us proposed gerrymanders that would connect Lexington to all the coal counties in the eastern part of the state.  It would have been a district that Clinton won in absolute landslides, and would have even gone for Al Gore.  Yet Romney would have crushed in it, and that may have still doomed Chandler.

            •  I think Obama's biggest failure (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, askew

              was on staffing, particularly the Fed and the judiciary. I'm not sure Obama could have gotten cap and trade through Congress (not without finding a way to pass health care reform more quickly), and I was under the impression that the House passing it was more Pelosi's doing. ("If you have the votes, you take the vote", something like that.)

              That said, the House taking the cap and trade vote does seem to have had negative electoral consequences the past two cycles.

              31, male, MI-11 (previously VA-08). Evangelical, postconservative, green.

              by borodino21 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:09:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  What about Shinagawa vs. Reed in Upstate NY? (5+ / 0-)

          Shinagawa almost won. Would investment by the DCCC, etc., have tipped the race to him, or would it have been matched by the NRCC et al?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 06:54:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Probably didn't help (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that Obama performed a lot worse in the district than in 2008. It looks like he only won three counties.

  •  I was working on a KY House map (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    and I have done Eastern and Western Kentucky. A few things have stood out so far:
    1. Rep. Jeff Greer (D-Brandenburg) will get a much better district. He will almost certainly lose Bullitt County and gain some areas around Ft. Knox.
    2. Democrats can link areas of Radcliff and Elizabethtown to sure up Rep. Jimmie Lee (D-Elizabethtown)'s seat for when he retires.
    3. Rep. Ben Waide (R-Madisonville)'s seat is still by far the easiest seat to chop up. His seat likely moves to the suburbs of Louisville.
    4. Rep. Elect Lynn Bechler (R-Marion) could easily see Republican leaning Livingston County traded for Democratic leaning Lyon County.
    5. With the loss of Rep. Teddy Edmonds (D-Jackson), his seat made of Democratic Breathitt and Republican Owsley and Estill Counties is likely sliced up.
    6. Democrats may feel comfortable enough with Rep. Terry Mills (D-Lebanon) to keep the Casey/Marion configuration. However, since Nelson County may now be split, a Marion/Washington/part of Nelson district may be in the works.
    7. Rep. Rick Rand (D-Bedford), given the Dem loss in the open HD-61, will want to shed his heavily Republican sections of Oldham County and pickup Gallatin County. Will Democrats give up on HD-61?
    8. Democrats will need to do some fancy redistricting around the Owensboro area to preserve their hold on all the seats in that area.
    9. Despite having 55 seats, Democrats still face the problem that they would almost certainly lose the seats of Rep. Hubert Collins (D-Whittensburg), Harlan Stone (D-Scottsville) and Bob Damron (D-Nicholasville) when they retire. Several other seats are potentially vulnerable as well.
    10. Will Democrats give up on their lost Bullitt County seat?
    11. What will Democrats do with the McCracken County precincts?
    12. How thin are Democrats willing to stretch Jefferson and Fayette Counties to squeeze out a seat or two?

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 06:19:49 PM PST

    •  Speaking of Kentucky (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike, jncca

      what's with Obama improving in south-central KY? Specifically Hart, Barren, Metcalfe, and Taylor counties, where he got a bigger share of the vote than he did in '08?

      •  my only theory (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        is evangelicals staying home.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:07:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  A few thoughts (4+ / 0-)

        none of these counties mine any coal, and Obama probably got as low of a share of the vote in 2008 as he was going to get. In Taylor County, there has been some growth based on amazon.com (there is a large distribution center there), which may account for some the shift there.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:22:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  2014 News (6+ / 0-)

    IL-SEN: Durbin likely to run again

    MI-SEN: Levin will announce early next year

    AR-SEN: Pryor definitely running

    AK-SEN: Treadwell/Sullivan/Miller potential candidates against Begich

    LA-SEN: Jindal not running

    NC-SEN: Tillis likely candidate

    MT-SEN: No Republican candidates mentioned

    SD-SEN: Johnson has not talked about his plans

    KY-SEN: McConnell building a presidential size organization

    http://www.politico.com/...

  •  Democratic Internals (6+ / 0-)

    The best Democratic internal polls were Garin Hart Yang, Global Strategy Group, DCCC IVR, Lake Research, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, Benenson Strategy, PPP, and Frederick Polls.

    The worst Democratic internal polls were Grove Research, Victoria Research, FM3, Normington Petts, Anzalone-Liszt, Momentum Analysis, Mellman Group, Lester and Associates, Myers Research, FM3, Gravis and GBA.  

  •  Republican internal House pollsters (only public) (5+ / 0-)

    There weren't a whole lot of good pollsters, but the best were Moore Information, NMB, Public Opinion Strategies, Wenzel Strategies and the NRCC IVR firm.

    The worst Republican pollsters were McLaughlin and Associates, OnMessage, North Star Campaigns, We Ask America, Eaton River Strategies, Finkelstein and Associates, Hill Research, Gravis, Victory Enterprises, National Research, Voter Survey Services, and the Tarrance Group.  

    •  In case you were wondering (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike, MichaelNY, KingTag

      I love the name Finkelstein and Associates. They were Mary Bono Mack's pollster and were off by 21 points...Something makes me seem that they got the same private numbers as public.

    •  Tarrance is the Repub half of GWU/Battleground (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, KingTag

      Lake Research is the Democratic half.  

      Funny how Lake was one of the best and Tarrance was one of the worst.  They poll separately and average out their results and Tarrance is so bad that that the combined Battleground was still among the worst National numbers.

      In 2008, Battleground split out Lake and Tarrance on their final poll, and Tarrance had the most R-skewed result of any pollster that cycle.

  •  Article about Dem successes in Riverside County (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike, MichaelNY, jj32, askew

    The ground game was great, considering that there was not much Democratic structure in the county before. The state party did it's job.

    http://www.pe.com/...

    The California Democratic Party and House Democrats zeroed in on several of the new Riverside County districts, and included them in their “Battleground California” blueprint for 2012.

    The state party, unions and other groups poured money and resources into the county, throwing together a Democratic campaign operation where none had existed only months earlier. In the races for the 61st Assembly District and 31st Senate District, the state party alone spent almost $2 million.

    More than 1,500 volunteers staffed 50 voter registration sites around the county and two offices.

    “We used to have to beg the state for resources,” said Robert Melsh of Riverside, a Democratic activist who ran shoe-string campaigns for the state Assembly in 2002 and 2004. “There has been a dramatic turnaround,”

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 08:32:34 PM PST

    •  An interesting piece. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, MichaelNY, fearlessfred14

      Someone said that for time immemorial, Democrats have held zero Cong. districts based in Riverside County and now they have two.

      It also vindicates the redistricting commission as it forced the Democratic Party to branch out rather than remain in its comfort zone.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:14:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  In theory, Republicans also were granted (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        a similar chance to branch out of their comfort zones, but they blew much of their money on legal tripe and were unable to unless some moneybags stepped up to run somewhere swingy.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 11:54:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  how many ballots left in Riverside? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I know it doesn't really matter at this point but would be cool if Obama could carry it again.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 12:53:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The 49ers and the Rams tied today (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, DCal, MBishop1, sulthernao

    but Karl Rove said Romney won the game. So I'm not sure what to think.

  •  I haven't seen anyone post this yet (9+ / 0-)

    But Angus King (I-ME!), says he will announce which side of the Senate he will caucus with "next week or sometime after the Thanksgiving holiday"

    http://www.boston.com/...

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 09:33:21 PM PST

  •  John Marhsall thinks Romney had the wool over (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike

    their eyes after all:
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:35:36 PM PST

  •  Romney adviser: GOP hardliners on immigration (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, askew

    scared away Latinos:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Nov 11, 2012 at 10:38:37 PM PST

  •  Here's a post mortem from Max Brantley on AR (4+ / 0-)
    We won races in deep red parts of the state. Vines, Wren, Kizzia, Overby, Catlett, etc.. And lost in areas where the candidates should have won but had weak personalities.
    Basically, the Arkansas Democratic Party was so obsessed with winning races in heavily Republican districts that they forgot to shore up races in districts in the Delta/North Little Rock that Blanche Lincoln actually did pretty well in (in fact, she won some of them!). On the one hand, their strategy in winning the most Republican districts succeeded, but on the other hand, they lost easy Democratic districts with bad candidates.

    All three racist Republicans, Charlie Fuqua, Loy Mauch and Jon Hubbard went down on Tuesday. Also, Arkansas Democrats maintain their control of every single office in Craighead County and Greene County. Having that kind of control in Craighead and Greene will be important for rebuilding the party.

  •  The Republican media cocoon (7+ / 0-)
    In this reassuring conservative pocket universe, Rasmussen polls are gospel, the Benghazi controversy is worse than Watergate, “Fair and Balanced” isn’t just marketing and Dick Morris is a political seer.
    http://www.politico.com/...

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