It has now been almost a week since President Obama won re-election, the Democrats not only kept the Senate but increased their majority, in the House we did very well given that we had lost most of the State Houses in a redistricting year, and many Liberal/Libertarian initiatives passed.
There is always a rush to say what it all means, if only to control the frame of the discussion, but for me it is always best to let things percolate for a while before trying to come to any understanding that one might be able to use as a yard stick for future campaigns (after all, politics is never “done” it is just at the start of a new cycle).
To that end I have been thinking about the totality of the election results. There are a lot of groups that can take credit for the president winning reelection, women, Latino and young voters, but it is this last group that I think is the most important the sign of things to come.
Young voters, despite predictions to the contrary, turned out in even greater numbers that they did in the seminal 2008 election. While it was only a single point increase, it signals what I think is an important trend.
What is important to remember is that the “youth vote” is defined as people 18 to 29. So nearly half of that vote is replaced by aging out and aging in every 4 years. To have a high turnout in that category (and a growing one at that) means that we have a fairly large block of people who are voting for president for the first or second time that went overwhelmingly for the Democrats.
It is a well known political science factoid that the party you vote for the first couple of times is most likely the party you will stay with for the rest of your life.
Which is good news for Democrats in general, but better news for Liberals in terms of ballot initiatives.
The Right has been able to use the ballot initiatives to fire up and turn out their base for a long time. Not only has this helped them win elections in states that really should have no business voting Republican, it has really pushed their regressive and damaging policy forward.
Now the shoe is starting to be on the other foot. It looks (and please do remember that this is all very early days, I may end up eating these words) like we have finally gained enough voting population to counter-balance the conservative block of the Baby Boomers. Who would have thought that recreational marijuana would pass in two states? Or that marriage equality would be voted in by thee and an anti-equality measure would go down in flames for the first time?
These are things ideas that are no-brainers to people under 35 but are anathema to those over 55. To see such a turn of events really looks like a shift in the winds to me.
Which is not to say that we can assume that the Liberal golden age is at hand, nothing is ever that easy. There is still an entrenched Old Guard in Congress (including some Democrats who are not as liberal as they should be) and a structural problem for the House for the next 8 years at least.
But it is an opportunity. Having a young, liberal and active voting block allows us to put pressure on the president and the national Dems. Even thought President Obama does not face re-election he does have a vested interest in having his legacy protected and enhanced.
There is a lot of talk about there not being a “mandate” out there for Liberal change, but the reality is that there is never a mandate, just a chance to make your policies and see if the voters like them enough to return you and your party to office. This is the way we should frame things and it has a real basis.
Can there be any doubt that part of the disastrous loss in 2010 was that disheartened younger voters did not turn out in the numbers they had just 2 years before. Even with the structural benefits that conservatives always enjoy in midterm elections, we could have done better if the younger voters felt empowered.
When one makes a prediction it is always incumbent that one make a test to be able to show it to be true or false. I am going to do that now.
If it is true that there is a new voting block composed of younger engaged voters we should see a further erosion of the Republican Majority in the House and an increase in the Democratic Majoiry in the Senate in 2014. The test of this block is will they turn out in an election that has always favored the old and conservative voters.
If we do see those changes, then a new day really has dawned for the Left and for Liberal policy. All the things so many of us that were achievable in 2008 will finally be in reach over the next few cycles.
That is the way I see things right now. How about you?
The floor is yours.