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November 7th, 2016:

Almost a week after once again being soundly defeated in the Presidential election, the Republican party is trying to pick up the pieces and asking questions of how it will be a viable national party in the future.  Four years after losing an election they thought they could win against Barack Obama, this time the GOP had no illusions of winning going into election day as Hillary Clinton soundly defeated Marco Rubio 383-155 in the electoral college and by 8% in the popular vote.  The first female President-elect, Mrs. Clinton and her running mate Brian Schweitzer were able to expand the electoral map for the Democratic Party, capturing Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, and North Carolina after those states had voted for Romney in 2012.  2016 marked the second election in a row in which the Republican standard bearer could not win his own home state, with Rubio losing Florida.  The Republicans did manage to win Vice-Presidential candidate Nikki Haley's home state of South Carolina.

Democratic Senate and House candidates rode the coattails of the Clinton-Schweitzer ticket to expand upon their majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives.  The Democrats picked up 5 seats in the Senate and 20 seats in the House.  Of particular note were losses by Republican Senators John McCain, Chuck Grassley, and Rand Paul, and House members Michelle Bachmann and Paul Ryan.  Notable victories by Democrats included Gabrielle Gifford's return to the House of Representatives.

The 2016 electorate looked somewhat similar to the electorate of 2012.  The Democrats improved their numbers with white voters (winning 43%) while expanding their margins with women and younger voters.  The presence of Rubio on the Republican ticket and his support of immigration reform helped improve Republican numbers with Latinos slightly, with Rubio garnering 35% of the Latino vote to Romney's 27% performance in 2012.  However, the Latino vote comprised 12% of the electorate this year, compared to 10% in 2012.  The non-white vote came in at 30% of the electorate this year, compared to 28% in 2012.  Overall turnout was up from 2012, as almost 128 million votes have been counted so far in the Presidential Election.

President-elect Clinton is said to be working closely with outgoing President Barack Obama in the transition effort, after Mr. Obama and Mrs. Obama campaigned vigorously for Mrs. Clinton after she secured the Democratic nomination in a relatively easy primary season for her.

Reaction to the elections among Republicans was markedly more muted and sober than they were four years ago.  Gone were the predictions of national calamity and decline and the onset of socialism that ran rampant in 2012 after Obama's re-election.   The vigorous recovery and growth of the economy during President Obama's second term enabled Mrs. Clinton to run on a positive note, with Rubio's call for massive tax cuts and spending cuts and massive defense spending increases finding little appeal.  With budget deficits now decreasing each year, exit polls revealed that voters were concerned about Republican policies increasing the debt.  Clinton's pitch for the improvement of "Obamacare" with a 'public option' and her support for nationalizing same-sex marriage rights marked a notably more liberal stance from her in 2016 than her previous run in 2008 - perhaps to prevent a primary challenge from the left.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Plausible vision of 2016 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The task now is to convince Hillary that the country's need for her to run outweighs her current state of exhaustion (and that she CAN live in the White House with Mr. Big Dog).

    •  We won't hear any official word about it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      until 2015 .. but I think after a few years away from Washington, her batteries will be recharged and we'll be seeing the signs of her running in 2014.

      •  I don't know (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I've never been among the ranks of the people who think Clinton will run in 2016.  I'm not entirely convinced about Biden either.  I think we have some great "new generation" talent that I'd like to see before settling on them on November 12, 2012 anyway.  

        I DO think the GOP will seriously consider Rubio in a transparent attempt to brownwash the party brand for 2016.  I don't think he'd get a majority, but I'm sure he'd do better than 35% of the Latino vote.  Think about it, if you were Latino, it might feel like a pretty big symbol of your demographic's political clout if the party of self-deportation and "show me your papers" felt it necessary to nominate a Latino the next cycle.  That may override the crappy policies for some, especially after some patented GOP obfuscation on soon-to-be Fox News Espanol.  

        •  Nothing is certain, but... (0+ / 0-)

          The odd are Clinton will run in 2016, her ambition has always been on the White House. Plus the odds of another "Barack Obama" type candidacy is fairly unlikely. The closest possibility is Julián Castro, but Obama will help clear the field if Clinton chooses to run. Although a Clinton-Castro ticket would be awesome.

          I agree I think Rubio will run, I don't know if he can win the primary though. It's still overwhelmingly conservative and white. Even if he were to win his vote share will still be under 35% for latino voters, assuming more is an insult to latino voters. Unlike black voters, hispanic voters are much more diverse electorate. Rubio will no doubt do well with Cubans, he will do just as poorly with other white and non-white hispanic voters as other republicans. Republicans already have the support of Cuban voters they need to expand that base if they are going to be competitive.

  •  I hope (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nirbama, Maverick80229

    in the next four years that the dkos community expands its thinking enough to move beyond all elections all the time, and has by then accepted that politics is more than elections and will have worked for progressive social and political change long before the election cycle kicked up or cooled down.

    Words can sometimes, in moments of grace, attain the quality of deeds. --Elie Wiesel

    by a gilas girl on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 04:59:39 PM PST

  •  Throw in a reversal of Citizens United and (0+ / 0-)

    allowing all qualified people to vote, and I think you've got something there! :-)

    "We don't have village idiots any more; we have Republicans." - Positronicus

    by Maverick80229 on Mon Nov 12, 2012 at 07:06:11 PM PST

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