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Dear kos sacks

Does anyone know how I can find the most recent updated popular vote margin. I look at huffpo but it does not seem updated.

I also was wondering about two other issues.

1. How can studies say who was the accurate pollster if the counting is not finished. It looks like Obama will lead by 3 and that means pew was right on the spot ( likely model)

2. I read somewhere that nj pa were one of the most differences in drop in turnout compared to 2008 . So Obama 's lead would have been greater? Also ca was a big change. More bc voters thought what's the point. So Obama would have won by even more?

But still if anyone has a link to most recent update I would appreciate it


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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Garrett, NotGeorgeWill

    "Four seconds is the longest wait " -Sleater-Kinney

    by delphil on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:03:46 PM PST

  •  Google has popular vote numbers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NotGeorgeWill, Brainwrap, Sylv


    I don't know precisely how up to date it is, except that it is definitely still changing daily.

    •  Thanks! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Garrett, NotGeorgeWill

      "Four seconds is the longest wait " -Sleater-Kinney

      by delphil on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:16:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  CNN (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Garrett, scott on the rock, Sylv

      CNN's result is slightly more up to date. Also, the percentage of "votes in" gives you a good estimation of the number of ballots still remaining.

      Here is a link to the presidential election timeline. It looks like the results should be final by Dec 11.

      •  CNN currently counts ~ 5000 more votes for Obama (0+ / 0-)

        CNN seems to be slightly more current but it's last update was 5pm Wed Eastern time and I thought CA, OR and WA are releasing updates at 4 or 5PM Pacific time (their time).

        •  CA county updates, at least in Fresno county, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          are available 3pm on Wed and Friday. Probably the numbers are published by the state the next morning, as I didn't see the update at the state site last night.  In Fresno county, Obama has gained 1% since Nov. 9, but is still losing by 2%. In 08, Fresno finally turned blue after two weeks, but I doubt that will happen this time.

          The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

          by ybruti on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:02:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  By my calculations: (0+ / 0-)

      If there had been no voter suppression, Obama would have received about 3 million more votes.  Also, had Romney voters not actually believed the barrage of lies he told about Obama (with untold billions of dollars behind them), I conservatively think that another 1.5 million people would have voted for Obama - and not for Romney.

      That would have given Obama another 4.5 million votes and Romney 1.5 million fewer.  The final percentage would have been 54% to 46% in the popular vote.

  •  Google "2012 US Presidential Election Wikipedia" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    That's what I've been doing.  They appear to have the most up-to-date numbers in terms of election returns, although I'm curious to see shifts to the hundredth decimal place and most sites don't provide this information.

    Good question about poll accuracy.  I think, in some cases, the analysis has probably been more preliminary and more focused on swing states.  In the case of swing states, I haven't seen big shifts in poll numbers.  Maybe a point or two in extreme cases, but a place like Ohio hasn't moved much at all.  Most of the change in popular vote has been the result of late reporting from larger states like NY, California and Texas, which weren't really used for making assessments about state level polling accuracy.  

  •  Go ..... (6+ / 0-)

    Here and then click on the election results tab at the top.  And you will see Romney sitting at 47.something.  :-)

  •  California (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gooserock, NotGeorgeWill, Oracle2021

    still has 1.3 million ballots to count.  

  •  Also, #1 and #2 (0+ / 0-)

    I think is right.  You probably noticed that there was a significant difference in several polls between registered and likely voters candidate choice.  

    e.g. Registered voters often showed a stronger preference for Obama, but a closer race in the Likely Voter model.  I think it's probably a reasonable assumption that in less competitive states, Obama-leaning voters were less likely to show up at the polls, which reduced his potential vote total.  There was much less drop-off in swing states.  This is just a guess.

    New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and New York, the impact of the hurricane may also have impacted turnout.  Especially in NJ and NY, over a week after the storm hit, communities are still without power, and people are unable to return to homes.  This is also probably delaying the publication of their election returns.

  •  Lot's... (0+ / 0-)

    ..of voter suppression in California could have affected the final numbers. I found it strange but they may have had ulterior motives.

    "Good to be here, good to be anywhere."~Keith Richards

    by bradreiman on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:25:33 PM PST

    •  Voter suppression in California? (0+ / 0-)

      Do you have details?  My impression is that the state does everything it can to make voting easy for us.

      The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

      by ybruti on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:11:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  google is your friend (0+ / 0-)

    "Politics is like driving. To go backward put it in R. To go forward put it in D."
    Four More Years! How sweet it is!!!

    by TrueBlueMajority on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 08:39:16 PM PST

  •  As other said... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, chicago minx

    CNN is good for this:

    That updates pretty regularly.

    My guess is that Obama's percentage over Romney will only widen beyond where it is now. Almost all states have over 90% of their vote in, and most are over 95%.

    I only see five states with less than 90% out, and two of those are big population states that are strong Obama territory:

    NY - 86%
    CA - 81%

    The other three are:

    UT - 88%
    AZ - 85%
    DC - 89%

    AZ might help raise the Romney totals, but it's nowhere near as big as NY or CA.

    And UT and DC are too small for their remaining 11-12% to make much difference, and will probably cancel each other out. Of course it depends on which areas in each state are left to count, but it looks like what's left out there will favor Obama and push his numbers up more than Romney's.

    •  Actually ALOT of those (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, ybruti

      Uncounted ballots in AZ are provisional ballots which disproportionately affect Lationo and other Minority voters.

      "I don't want a line in the Sand lines can be moved. They can be blown away. I want a six foot trench carved into granite."

      by theone718 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 09:34:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A few others are still pretty low (0+ / 0-)

      Still some big states like OH & IL with a significant number uncounted.

      CO 90%
      MT 90%
      OH 90%
      VT 90%
      AK 90%
      NM 91%
      HI  92%
      IL 93%
      NV 93%

      Notice how most of these are states Obama won.

      Filibuster reform now. No more Gentleman's agreements.

      by bear83 on Wed Nov 14, 2012 at 10:23:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The CNN site shows a 3% difference (0+ / 0-)

      between Obama and Romney: 51%-48% and updates regularly.

      The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right. -- Judge Learned Hand, May 21, 1944

      by ybruti on Thu Nov 15, 2012 at 06:14:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  1.9M in CA, 148,000 left in WA, etc. (0+ / 0-)

    mostly from counties that Obama won, often handily, so expect his percentage to continue creeping up.  In PA, there is no similar report about how many ballots, including provisional ballots, that remain to be counted.  In Philadelphia there were various reports on election day about thousands of voters who were required to vote on a provisional ballot because elections board had not processed their registration forms in time to get their names on the binders sent to each precinct.  [The Phila board processed 60,000 new voter registration forms in last weeks before election, even while storm Sandy was passing through the area.]  We don't know how many of those provisional ballots were cast and how many remain to be counted.  The head of the Phila elections office was deposed within days of the Nov 6 election and replaced by one of the other commissioners.

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