I can say with absolute certainty that Mittens is headed for the dreaded 47%. As in, below 47.5%, which will be rounded down to 47%. Obama's vote total will be rounded up to 51% and it may even exceed 51% eventually.
My favorite website on which to study elections is uselectionatlas.org. They update their numbers more often and more consistently than other websites.
Here are their updated totals:
Obama 63,679,412 (50.73%)
Romney 59,769,964 (47.61%)
Other 2,080,310 (1.66%)
As more and more returns from California and other states are included, Romney's share of the popular vote continues to drop and Obama's share continues to rise. And there are roughly 1.5 million ballots left to count in California. Obama has been carrying the remaining absentee/provisional/damaged ballots in that state roughly 64% to 33%, so the counting of these ballots will impact the popular vote count greatly.
And now for some really good news. The New Jersey numbers are nowhere near final. I was able to get updates from some individual counties in New Jersey and it appears that there are a lot of votes left to count.
Here are the additional numbers from Essex County that are not included in the latest popular vote count:
And here are the additional numbers from Union County, also not included in the latest popular vote count:
Extrapolated to the rest of the state, it would seem that as many as 400,000 ballots might be added to the current total of about 3.3 million from election night. And these are going to heavily favor Obama - he won the state 58% to 41%.
The current popular vote count also does not include the latest figures from Virginia. Here are the additions since the last report:
The current vote count also does not include the latest figures from Indiana. Here are the additions:
And here are some additions from New Mexico that aren't included in the current vote counts:
I realize this is not an earth-shattering update, but what it means for me personally is that I get a free dinner from my friend in Albuquerque because I bet her that Obama would win New Mexico by more than ten points. With this latest update, he is now beating Romney 52.98% to 42.85%. Free dinner for me!
In California, Riverside County has now flipped to Obama. Here are the latest additions from Riverside that are not included in the popular vote counts above:
As of now, Obama is winning Riverside County 49.32% to 48.66%. Riverside County has roughly 30,000 ballots left to count and they are all provisionals. Obama will win Riverside County for the second time.
I checked in on a few other states. Arkansas had a small update, with Obama winning the newly added votes by about 600 to 400. It seems like Delaware and Louisiana are finished with their counts. Travis County (Austin), Texas had a very small update, which favored Obama. Washington, Oregon, Maryland, and Arizona are still counting votes, but it appears that the current vote counts listed above include those updates.
Ohio hasn't posted any updates in a long while, because John Husted is an evil son of a b*tch who keeps trying to challenge election law in court ir order that as few votes as possible will actually be counted. Once the roughly 300,000 remaining ballots actually get counted (or a portion of them) we can expect Obama's margin of victory in that state to rise.
New York also hasn't posted any updates in a good long while, but their numbers should go up sharply by the beginning of December, when they are due to post their re-canvass, which will include emergency, provisional, and affidavit ballots.
In any case, let's go ahead and add my posted updates above to the current vote counts, which results in:
Obama 63,763,483 (50.75%)
Romney 59,801,168 (47.59%)
Other 2,083,245 (1.66%)
Now, let's assume that roughly 1.2 million out of the remaining 1.5 million ballots in California get counted (the vast majority are provisional). Out of these Obama should pick up about 64% to Romney's 33% (the vast, vast majority of outstanding provisionals are from counties like Napa, Los Angeles, and Contra Costa).
This results in:
Now let's add these to the totals and see what happens:
Obama 64,531,483 (50.87%)
Romney 60,197,168 (47.46%)
Other 2,119,245 (1.67%)
So after just adding a reasonable projection of the remaining ballots in California, we find that Mittens will drop below 47.46%. But even after accounting for California, there should be at least one million remaining ballots (and probably way, way more), most of which are likely from New York, New Jersey, and Ohio. Let's say for the sake of argument, Obama wins them 60% to 38%. He will win them by more than that, but let's just say 60% to 38%.
This results in:
Now let's add these to the totals:
So as we can clearly see, Mittens is going to be stuck at the dreaded 47%, which is so freaking fitting. Obama will get 51%. My actual prediction is that Obama gets 51.1% and Mittens, 47.2%, but that's splitting hairs. The point is, Obama's popular vote victory, when all is said and done, will be a significant one - a clear 4-point margin and a win by four and a half million votes, not to mention the triumph in the electoral college.
I cannot wait until all these final results are certified. Bwwwwahahahahahahaha!