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Comment Preferences

  •  WSJ County trends map (10+ / 0-)

    http://online.wsj.com/...

    Reposting from yesterday's live digest courtesy Inoljt, since NYT completely bastardized theirs.

    Interesting how there are no states where Romney did better than Bush in every county - even in West Virginia, there are a few counties in the eastern panhandle that saw very slight Democratic improvement from 2004 to 2012.

    Also, the turnout trend map is fun.

  •  Romney at 47.50% as of 11:19 A.M. EST (12+ / 0-)

    Obama at 50.80%. Per Wasserman's sheet.

    https://docs.google.com/...

    Happy Thanksgiving indeed!

  •  Gr-leg: elections coming soon (6+ / 0-)

    SYRIZA ready to push for fall of the government: http://www.imerisia.gr/...

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:46:36 AM PST

  •  Retaking the House (5+ / 0-)

    I think that the way forward from now on for the Democrats is to get behind independent redistricting amendments, like the one that was defeated in Ohio.
    If they put money and effort behind them then their road to a majority before 2022 will be much more plausible.

    Besides Ohio and Michigan where else could we see such initiatives?
         

    •  Well let's see, per ballotpedia the following (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      states have initiative for constitutional amendments where a fair map would be of benefit to Dems:

      Arkansas
      Florida
      Michigan
      Mississippi (mostly for legislative redistricting)
      Missouri (marginally helpful, mostly for 2020 to protect Cleaver)
      Montana (in case of a future GOP trifecta, mainly for legislative redistricting)
      Nebraska
      North Dakota (legislative redistricting)
      Ohio
      Oklahoma (legislative redistricting)
      South Dakota (legislative redistricting)

      I think our best bets in terms of viability and seats yielded would be, in descending order:
      Michigan (net 3 seats)
      Ohio (net 3-5 seats)
      Florida (net 1 seat)

      I would really love to see a coordinated effort by the national party to push for an independent commission amendment in Michigan and Ohio especially, Florida takes a 60% vote to amend though IIRC

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 09:28:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Happy thanskgiving. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Florida has already passed a fair districts amendment and the situation has somewhat ameliorated.

        Montana already has an independent redistricting commission, IIRC.

        •  I thought Schweitzer made the appointments (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          for the commission.  IIRC, twohundertseventy said something to that effect.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 10:20:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Is all this at the state legislative level, too? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If so, that'd be a short-term and a long-term plus, since it would help us get better candidates.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 10:34:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  For some but not all (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

          In Arkansas it would screw us big time since we actually aggressively gerrymandered the legislature (though we lost it anyway).  However, by 2020 we would probably want it to apply to the legislature in case they hold the trifecta.

          Missouri already has an independent commission type of institution for legislative redistricting, so it would really just turn a solidly 6-2 congressional map into a somewhat less solidly 6-2 map, but in 2020 it would prevent them from screwing over Cleaver if they held the trifecta.

          For pretty much all of the others though, the GOP drew the lines so I'm sure the net impact would be somewhat positive at least, particularly in states like Michigan where we would probably have a majority under a fair map.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

          by sawolf on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 10:41:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I never even thought about... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, MichaelNY

            The possibility of splitting up MO-5.  

            We ought to count up the seats the Republicans could screw us out of in 2022 if they hold a trifecta.  Lesee...

            KY-03
            MO-05
            TN-05

            That's about all I can think of.  Even assuming a Republican trifecta, seats like MI-05, MO-1, OH-13, PA-14, and WI-07 are simply too Democratic, and would probably result in 2-3 Democratic-leaning seats if they were cracked.  Elsewhere, seats will probably fall on their own (NC-07, WV-03), are VRA protected, or are in states where it's incredibly unlikely a Republican gerrymander will get new gains.  

            But this brings up an interesting aside.  With the continued relative decline of rust-belt populations, plus the suburbanization of black voters, it will be impossible by 2020 to construct majority-black VAP districts in Ohio and Missouri, along with more than one district in Michigan.  The number of black districts will probably fall by one in New York, Illinois, and Florida as well.  This will potentially result in very different map configurations in all states, particularly if they are either Democratic gerrymanders or nonpartisan (bipartisan or Republican would tend to follow status quo for obvious reasons).  

            •  They could have done it this year (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              GloFish, MichaelNY

              had the held the trifecta, though I doubt they would have totally baconmandered KC, but you could very easily keep all of the black population together and draw it into the Ozarks to create a swing district at worst.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 12:37:18 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Missouri (0+ / 0-)

              It will still be possible to create a majority black district in St. Louis probably.

              22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

              by wwmiv on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:22:38 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Why? It isn't possible now anyway (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, sapelcovits

                The best you can do is around 45-46% by VAP (47-48% with baconmandering) and I don't see why that would become any easier in 2020 unless you have further concentration of blacks in the north metro area.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                by sawolf on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:35:53 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  the St. Louis district (0+ / 0-)

                  Isn't still AA majority?

                  22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                  by wwmiv on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:54:41 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Nope, only 45.5% VAP and 49.3% total pop (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    per DRA.  One time I think I tried to baconmander it to see if it were at all possible and I don't think I could even reach 48%.  You'd literally have to go from St. Louis to Kansas City to draw a black majority district.

                    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

                    by sawolf on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 03:04:12 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

  •  Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! (5+ / 0-)

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 09:10:50 AM PST

  •  I'll be leaving OR-01, going through some of (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, abgin

    the bluest parts of OR-02, and then on to WA-03 this Thanksgiving.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 09:15:57 AM PST

  •  Indiana in 2008 v. Indiana in 2012 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Englishlefty

    Unless the final results change a lot, it looks like we will have between 43.00 and 43.74 percent of the vote. (uselectionatlas.org has a higher absolute vote total for us, but the Indiana elections site has a higher percentage; I don't know what to think.) Unlike 2008, there was no serious effort put into the state (despite me thinking there might be a last minute push). The results haven't gone that far outside the 37-41 range many times in the last few decades, but still, given that this wasn't a Democratic year and there was no effort put into winning it, doesn't this seem pretty good? It's all the more interesting when you think of of how we only won the Senate race, and not in a blowout, while being beaten in the governor's race, even if by a small margin, and being destroyed in the state legislative races.

    Why was this the case? It's one of a few states that I'd like to look into, but not until the results are final. Still, here are some things to consider:

    1. Obama's from a neighboring state.

    2. His 2008 efforts really did have a lasting impression, at least this time around.

    If this is true, you have to wonder how this might allow us to expand the map in a more serious and permanent way.

    3. The auto bailout. It's probably less of an issue in Indiana than it is in Ohio, but it still might be a factor.

    4. Unions being threatened in general.

    5. Nonwhites still turning out in record numbers

    6. Likely Romney voters staying home.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 09:26:55 AM PST

    •  The margin is under 10 points in IN, MO, AZ, GA (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DownstateDemocrat, bjssp

      and just over 10 in SC.

      In constrast to 2004, this is pretty darn good.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 11:57:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  the fact that Obama barely did better (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen

        than Kerry in AZ is depressing.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 05:17:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  People overestimate (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, Inoljt, MichaelNY

          the "trend" in some states simply based on demographics. Personally, I don't think Texas and Arizona are moving our direction at all.

          •  Depends on the composition of our constituency in (0+ / 0-)

            Arizona. In 2004, and even in 2008, it was probably more balanced between whites and Hispanics. This past year, I'd guess it's much more skewed towards Hispanics, although I'd love to see a thorough, respectable exit poll to be more confident.

            I'm fine with this, at least right now, for a few reasons. One is that we can't be sure of much of anything until we vigorously contest a state, perhaps even a few times. More generally, we are probably at our floor with white voters. We might not be able to go much higher with Hispanics, but they will almost certainly become a bigger portion of the electorate.

            Texas might be different, if only because the state Republicans, or at least Rick Perry, don't appear to be going out of their way to be hostile to them. Still, we'll never get a good idea of where we stand until we seriously contest it.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:32:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  A couple things (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Hispanics in Texas are simply not as Democratic as other states. They tend to be long-established in the areas they reside, often predating Texas being an American area. We just aren't going to be winning them 80-20 like we do in some other areas.

              And I think "We are at our floor" with regards to white voters is disingenuous. I think the Democrats can, and likely will, fall further with white voters. Obama got 39% of the white vote in 2012, which is 4% lower than in 2008. This was quite evident with Obama tanking even further in traditional Democratic, although white, places such as West Virginia. If you want to see the real floor for Democrats among white voters, look at places like Alabama or Mississippi, where white voters vote 90-10 Republican. I don't think that it will get that bad nationally for Democrats, but you're lying to yourself if you believe 39% is a true floor.

              •  I know (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                that Texas Hispanics are more Republican than they are in other states. I mentioned how the party treats them differently, although it might certainly go beyond that.

                That may or may not last, but it's counterbalanced by the fact that there are a few major cities in the state that appear to be more open to voting for Democrats than the rest of the state.

                As far as the white vote goes, I was talking more about Arizona than anywhere else. It could certainly fall further, sure, but if I had to guess, I'd say it's not all that likely. For whatever reason, Arizona whites seem to be historically less hostile to Democrats than whites in the Deep South. I'd also wonder how the voting habits of whites change as the state becomes more and more diverse, which is almost a given. We also haven't really contested it like we have Ohio in, well, probably decades.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 09:26:15 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  I think they're close to maxed out (0+ / 0-)

            on the angry white dude vote in AZ. The Hispanic trend will keep happening, though.

            •  Sigh. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, OGGoldy, GloFish

              Where's the evidence of this--or that "they're maxed out on the white vote" anywhere?

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 07:37:12 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Sorry, that sounded condescending. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Inoljt

              I just think this is a non-disprovable claim, and a comforting one--and that's a dangerous combination.  "They've maxed out on the white vote in state X!  (Election happens.)  That was disappointing.  But, ok, now they've maxed out the white vote in state X".    

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 08:13:42 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  there are some states you can say that about (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, wu ming, MichaelNY

                For example, in a state like MS, AL or arguably Texas it's hard to envisioning Democrats going any lower because they're already pretty close to zero among their weakest constituencies (and it's hard to imagine a place like Austin suddenly going Republican). This is basically the flip-side of the coin that Democrats have maxed out among black voters since you can't get any more than 100% of the vote.

                I do agree that while it's unlikely Arizona whites will get more conservative since they're already much more conservative than whites neighboring non-Mormon states, it's certainly possible since there is still space for further erosion when you're getting 30% of the vote.

                http://www.cnn.com/...

                26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 08:25:45 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  There's a "the south shall rise again" element (0+ / 0-)

                in the white vote in the states of the old confederacy that I believe still exists. While I understand how some of it qualifies as racism, I believe that many white old-line southern Rs believe that they're just defending themselves, from a new demographic that is changing the definition of America.

                If you suggest to them that it is actually racism, they object. And I believe their objections are sincere. Many of them actually have more African American friends than many of us. They're just coming together, politically, in many states because they feel that much of America is biased against them.

                That "south shall rise again" element is largely absent in other states. Thus, I don't see how the R share of the white vote can that much more.

                I hope; therefore, I can live.

                by tietack on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 08:44:14 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Just because they'd sincerely object (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, James Allen

                  to being called racist doesn't mean they aren't. If you treat racism in America as just consisting of the people who tell pollsters that they'd vote against a qualified back candidate on the basis of race, you're not really grasping the depth of the problem.

                  •  But it does stop discussion (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    OGGoldy, MichaelNY

                    when people in such circumstances are called "racists", the lines harden, and discussion stops.

                    I hope; therefore, I can live.

                    by tietack on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 09:29:54 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Maybe in personal discussion it's not productive (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      wu ming, MichaelNY, James Allen

                      But from an academic perspective, I don't think it's helpful to consider these people anything other than racists. Maybe a specific category of racists, but racists none the less.

                      •  In academic discussions, there are neutral terms (0+ / 0-)

                        e.g. biased, beleagured, traditional values, eurocentric, etc. I suggest that in academic settings, the use of the word "racist" would stop rational discussion.

                        I hope; therefore, I can live.

                        by tietack on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 11:04:16 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  "traditional values" is a very biased term (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          wu ming, MichaelNY

                          Racism describes a societally reinforced set of biases that holds that people of a different race are predisposed to being inferior or holding negative traits or somehow aren't real full members of society, and I think that's it's naive to pretend that that isn't happening to a large degree in the American south (as well as many other parts of this county). Racism is a loaded term politically, but it has a pretty well defined sociological definition.

                          I don't think that someone who just so happens to think that every black person they've met is lazy or incompetent is any any less racist than someone who openly cops to thinking that blacks as a race are inherently lazy or incompetent. The fact is that a majority of self identified Republicans in this county either think Obama was not born in America or aren't sure whether he was, and that's not an issue we'd be dealing with with a white president.

                        •  If they just want blacks to "know their place," (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          BeloitDem, tietack, askew

                          that's best described not as "traditional values" but as unreconstructed racism. Academic language that obfuscates instead of clarifying is harmful to clear-eyed discussion.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:20:36 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  You're probably right to an extent (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, hankmeister

                          but I would argue that the "South will rise again" states rights stuff stops rational discussion as well, since the south will rise again mindset is inherently irrational.

                          •  You're right, of course (0+ / 0-)

                            Nevertheless, what you say can be parsed. For example, I think "states rights" helped some blue states resist the dictates of the second Bush administration, e.g. Oregon assisted suicide laws.

                            As for the statement itself, it has been neutered for some into a romantic notion about an underdog coming back. Of course, I recognize that it is an offensive term to those who recognize its implications.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 10:00:14 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That underdog comback narrative (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            is based on the inherently incorrect and racist idea that southern whites are an oppressed minority in this county because they've lost some of the privlidge they held for the better part of our history.

                          •  Nevertheless, a good many of them are poor whites (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Inoljt

                            who are economically oppressed in a different way. Democratic economic policies do benefit them.

                            And until the Clinton era, many of them voted Democratic nationally. Even as Republicans, they respond well to economically populist appeals ala Huckabee.

                            Remember the amusement when pollsters had stories about white households in '08 who were voting for the "n"***.

                            I think it is a failure of Democratic campaigns that so many of us don't even try to speak to them anymore.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:40:22 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Sure, we should talk to them (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            But we shouldn't let that get in the way of solid sociological analysis in academic settings or in places like DKE.

                          •  In other words, we disagree on the meaning of (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            "solid sociological analysis".

                            In addition, I think a discussion of --lets call it "creative"-- ways of talking to poor southern whites is part of the electoral focus of DKE.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 06:52:37 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I believe solid sociological analysis (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            includes having a clear head about racist attitudes and not pretending they're something they're not. Sure, you can add nuance, pointing out that these people don't consider themselves racist, that poverty is a factor, and that these people can be potentially convinced to support populist Democrats. But ultimately you're not going to convince me that a population that heavily believes that our black president either wasn't or might not have been born in America is not racist.

                          •  A solid sociological analysis would include (0+ / 0-)

                            open, two-way discussions with the subjects in question.

                            Imagine going into a rural white southern household with a line like "I'd like to interview you for a study I'm doing on racist attitudes in the South."

                            That would not lead to an open, two-way discussion.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:32:18 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Sure, don't use the term (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            with the subjects of the research. But the idea that a majority of white American Southerners don't still harbor some racist attitudes has about as much sociological merit as the idea that global warming is a hoax has scientific merit.

                          •  I suggest they know how to use google as well (0+ / 0-)

                            Despite our perceptions of Ted Stevens.

                            If we're going to have a real conversation with poor southern whites, we need to change the circumstances when we use certain terms.

                            At least in theory, that should be a lower bar than what Rs need to do to actually speak to Hispanics and African Americans. But I've found that many liberals like myself are pretty stubborn too.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:43:41 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I refuse to stop using the term racist (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            in academic conversion in cases where it is applicable because it might hurt the feelings of racists if they happened to google what I was saying. If Democratic politicians want to come up with nice little euphemisms because they think it will win them votes, I'm more okay with that, but I never intend to run for office and I don't think hiding our head in the sand and pretending the problem doesn't exist is helpful for people taking an academic view of politics.

                          •  I of course agree with using different approaches (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            tietack, Inoljt

                            for different audiences. I assume there are few unreconstructed racists on these boards, so I decline to pull punches, but in campaigns, Democrats certainly should use different ways to appeal.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:51:12 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  oppressed (4+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            BeloitDem, uclabruin18, tietack, MichaelNY

                            All radical nationalists see themselves as victims, even if historically they've been the bullies more often than not.

                            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                            by sacman701 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:11:17 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  And we need to harness the economic end of that (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            victimhood. Mike Huckabee is the only national politico who has even tried to appeal in that direction over the past decade.

                            I suspect OfA did make similar appeals in their micro-targeting, but it was probably limited to SE Ohio and the SW of the state of Virginia.

                            I hope; therefore, I can live.

                            by tietack on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:56:41 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

              •  Well, sure, it could always get worse, to the (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                point where we'd get as little of the white vote as we do in the Deep South, but what might make that happen? On the other side, I'd ask, what might happen to make blacks even more Democratic? It's all possible, but none of it seems very likely.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:45:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  i think that the "angry white dude" types in those (0+ / 0-)

              states believe in the "Frankfurt School" conspiracy theory and that they are the natural targets/victims.

              RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

              by demographicarmageddon on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:25:59 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  There's an argument that IN is bluing slightly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      Not that the state legislative results would indicate it...

      Still, the Indy area has blued significantly - even the collar counties around Marion gave Obama significantly larger shares - i.e. in the 30s - than the 20s they gave Gore and Kerry. Plus, the other fast-growing area of the state is the Chicago burbs.

      The state is also growing more diverse - a growing Hispanic population, plus minorities and educated professionals in those two metro areas. And if you look at the age spreads, the vote under 50 was split 50-50. (Dishearteningly, the under 30 vote fell back to a tie or slight Romney win despite Obama winning that block by a huge margin in '08 - partially due to not contesting the state, but still.)

      The problem is these changes aren't happening especially fast (in contrast to VA and NC), and they're being partially offset by a worse Democratic performance in the southern part of the state.

      In the end, IN will still be a Republican-leaning state. But it does give evidence of being sort of an inverse of MN* or PA - states which tilt pretty strongly in one direction, but are close enough to be competitive and occasionally swing. (I know MN hasn't actually voted GOP in a long time, but it's been close enough a few times that it could in theory flip in a good GOP year.) So I hope Dems don't just abandon it like they did for 50 years before 2008.

      •  People sometimes read too much into (0+ / 0-)

        Walter Mondale's home state effect.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 04:16:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't read much (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen

        into state legislative results--not when it was as gerrymandered as it was after 2010. That's not to say that the state doesn't tilt to Republicans, only that the results probably make it seem more Republican than it is.

        It'll be interesting to see what, if anything, our candidate does in 2016. I get that it probably won't become a deep blue state, but can it become one where it's worth our time, even if it's not seeing the same strong trends as Virginia? I think so. For all the talk of Virginia bluing, we still need to spend time and money there--to speed up the shift toward us, if you will.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:40:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't consider Obama's performance as good in IN (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OGGoldy, MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

      Indiana had one of the biggest Republican shifts in the country.

      Now, if Obama hadn't contested Indiana and he'd lost by, say, five or three instead of ten, then I'd say that maybe he should have. But Obama was right to not contest Indiana.

      I'll take the Senate victory.

      http://mypolitikal.com/

      by Inoljt on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 04:56:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It had a big red shift, sure, but he still did (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        better than most Democrats do despite not contesting it. That might be because of a few unique factors that we won't see in coming cycles, but if it's not, it's still a solid and heartening performance. It doesn't necessarily mean he should have contested it, but it might mean a future candidate should look into it.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:42:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Considering 2008 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Was the first time Indiana was contested in 50 years, and then swiftly abandoned again, I don't think you should read that much into the shift.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:36:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY St. Senate - Editorial by Jeff Klein (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Here is something written by IDC leader Jeff Klein.

    http://www.lohud.com/...

    First part takes credit for everything signed into law by Cuomo calling them historic progressive reforms.  Of course a lot of it is histrionics but does make the case for something which perhaps should not be ignored in all our teeth gnashing.

    The Republicans in order to sway the IDC last time around had to give something in return. And with a REAL two seat Democratic majority (before you discount Simcha Felder his positions are not that out of line once you get beyond social issues) this time around one of the prices Dean Skelos and the Republicans will have to pay is loss of control over the substance of many pieces of legislation.  Particularly since they would not be just depending on moderate or conservative Democrats.   But out and out liberals.

    The second part lays out their intellectual justification for what we all fear could come next.

    For the four of us, bipartisanship is not a matter of political expedience. It is a matter of principle, rooted in the reality of the changing times. It is becoming increasingly clear, both at home and in Washington, that we are at a political tipping point.

    We can stay paralyzed in the political power games of the past, or we can embrace a new model of governing in the 21st Century. Such a model should reflect our citizenry and our communities; it should foster diversity, not simply trumpet partisanship. As we have seen over the last two years, we get more done when we work together.

    For that reason, coalition government may be the model whose time has finally come.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 09:37:20 AM PST

    •  Reading the whole thing, my nose tells me (6+ / 0-)

      that they're in leagues with Cuomo, who would like nothing better than a "coalition" with Skelos.

      There are other uglier possible reads, but . . . .

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 10:00:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It might be harder in 2014 than it would (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingTag, MichaelNY, Taget

        have been in 2012, given that the latter is a presidential year, but even with the state map that is favorable to Republicans, we did well this year. Makes you wonder how easy it would be to focus like a laser on just a few districts in 2014 to have a true Democratic majority and then have Cuomo by his balls.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 10:33:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's more complicated than that. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, andgarden, MichaelNY

        Just before the primaries Cuomo actually endorsed Neil Breslin over a primary opponent who was supported by the IDC.   As well as Adriano Espaillat and Gustavo Rivera whose opponents were seen as potential IDC recruits.

        The IDC firmly opposed Cuomo's pension "reform" plans.

        They are all out for themselves.  Though the IDC (given Cuomo's skyhigh approval numbers) do make it a habit to drop his name frequently in their public pronouncements.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 04:33:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Everybody does. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Taget, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

          I got a mailing from a Republican state senator, and not a moderate one, talking about how he worked with Cuomo or something.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:43:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Considering how Democratic New York is (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, Zack from the SFV

      their reasoning for a type of bipartisanship that would have the Republicans running the Senate sounds like bullshit to me. Fine, make sure their voices are heard by reforming the way the State Legislature functions, so that decisions really are by committee and vote of the entire caucus, not so much private meetings of the governor, speaker, and Senate leader. But don't violate the will of the voters, which was expressed so strongly that it overrode a grotesque gerrymander. It makes no sense whatsoever for them to be in a coalition with the Republicans if this is what they want to accomplish:

      As we approach the coming year, we stand ready to meet our state’s challenges once again. In 2013, we will further our progressive Democratic agenda.

      We will fight to raise the minimum wage so that workers can receive a paycheck they can actually live on, while our state’s economy can receive the boost that it so clearly needs. We will work to implement a New York Dream Fund for children of undocumented immigrants, a vital first step in realizing a NY Dream Act.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 02:11:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Stay Classy, Linda McMahon... (6+ / 0-)

    Noted without comment.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 10:41:04 AM PST

    •  They posted that in the Live Digest. (4+ / 0-)

      Hard to believe she looked like a threat at one time.  And now the WWE's out 100 million and has had to tone down their content the past 3 years.  They had to avoid episodes like that time Vince McMahon did this routine where he "punished" Trish Stratus for a loss by ordering her to strip down to her underclothes and bark like a dog (which she did, as that was part of the act).  Acting or not, that's some husband Linda's got. :/

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 10:51:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That scum of the earth spent (10+ / 0-)

      $41,474,257 directly from her campaign, of which 96% was self-funded, as well as an additional $1,011,211 in outside spending, to earn a total of 650,833 votes.  Meaning she spent an insane $65.29 per vote, only to lose.  That's still a huge improvement over 2010 where she spent $100.87 per vote of which over 99% was self-funded

      The fact that a woman willing to piss away that much of her own money to lose yet stiffed her campaign workers in such a vile manner speaks volumes about her character.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 10:54:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree. (4+ / 0-)

        Also, who the hell is giving her anything? It's one thing to give someone that isn't worth billions but is still very, very rich, like Mitt Romney, money for a presidential campaign, but most senate campaigns don't cost even a tenth of what a national campaign now costs.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 11:26:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  McMahon (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        Candidacies like McMahons reminds me of the late Roman republic, before Caesar took over.

        The competition was between megawealthy senators competing with each other, with deadly results to the losers.  

        They did provide circuses to the masses, tho, whereas the present campaigns provide us with unlimited advertising.

  •  A semi-crappy Thanksgiving (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, sapelcovits

    So the baby was acting fussy yesterday, and we took his temperature before bedtime and found he's got a fever.  It persists today.  Thanksgiving is at my father-in-law's in Reston this year, and after much back-and-forth we decided I'll stay here with the baby and the wife and other kids go to Thanksgiving.  Kinda sucks, but there's no other practical solution.

    Told 'em bring some food home for me.

    I guess I'll have the baby and football and maybe a movie ON-Demand.

    And DKE!

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 11:17:29 AM PST

    •  I hope your little one gets better soon. (4+ / 0-)

      If you are near a computer and want to check out a television show, go to this site. It's free, the quality is good, and it almost always works.

      I'm almost caught up on "New Girl" myself. It's a little quirky, though. Or if you just can't get enough of government and politics, you could watch "Parks and Recreation" or "The Good Wife."

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 11:24:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If it's a baby (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      and so the whole "cursing every five seconds" isn't a factor, I strongly, strongly recommend The Thick Of It - great British show. Haven't actually seen the accompanying movie, but I'm sure it's probably good too.

      How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 11:49:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Finally Bilbray lost (4+ / 0-)

    Republicans always won in San Diego County and my vote was always wasted. Not any more. Bilbray lost this year.

    Scott Peters is not perfect. He has some minor baggage related to unions, environment etc. You will hear even centrist voters complaining about these problems occasionally. Still he is a lot better than Bilbray. I did not like that he refused to endorse Bob Filner for Mayor of San Diego.  Filner's seat was becoming increasingly Hispanic every year and a primary battle with Juan Vargas would have been fratricidal.

    In my neighborhood, the Romney/Ryan front lawn banners outnumbered the Obama/Biden by 5:1. There were very few of them anyway.

    Dave Roberts won an open San Diego county supervisor seat. He was the Democrat in the race although these are nonpartisan races. Even San Diego county is turning blue. Ye, Ye Ye!!!

    •  San Diego Dems had a surge! (4+ / 0-)

      You won Cong. districts in all of San Diego (Susan Davis' was a given, but Peters wasn't), will have a Dem mayor for the first time since '92, and picked up a county supervisor seat!

      Play us out, South Park:

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 11:42:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also, I think Filner's seat was made into (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

      an even more Hispanic district and he felt it was better to end his career on a high note as Mayor of SD.  I can also imagine that giving Juan Vargas a free pass to run in the new district did a lot to settle that old feud between those two.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 11:45:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Happy Thanksgiving from MN-8 (3+ / 0-)

    It's the first time I have been to my home district since the election.

  •  WI-Gov 2014 (0+ / 0-)

    DailyKos diarist Puddytat, whose real name is unknown, decided NOT to run for Governor of Wisconsin:

    Thanks for the "nomination" but I'd be the last person who should run against Walker. Any debates would end up as fist fights. He's just plain evil.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 03:04:52 PM PST

  •  How big a holiday is Thanksgiving? (0+ / 0-)
  •  Ah, watching the Godfather after Thanksgiving (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

    this is paradise.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 07:24:02 PM PST

  •  Happy Thanksgiving, everyone (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, BeloitDem

    Yeah, I made Thanksgiving dinner and it cost a lot, but you can't put a price on Thanksgiving.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 01:16:24 AM PST

  •  A good ending to the day (11+ / 0-)

    A lonely Thanksgiving got better after the wife and the 2 older of our kids came home, food for me in tow!

    The baby, too, was improved for much of the evening with infant Motrin in his system bringing down the fever and any pain.

    So it ended happy for me.

    On giving thanks, besides my family including the great kids, it of course has to be for the election turning out happy.  We're all better off for it.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 05:06:44 AM PST

  •  I have a lot to be thankful for (17+ / 0-)

    after getting laid off in early October. I worked for a company that hired me to help with a government contract that got cancelled unexpectedly.

    I actually waited to file for unemployment until I knew it wouldn't affect the November 2 unemployment report (with the help of info gleaned at DKE).

    But that is all right. Election week started with a full day job interview, continued with the re-election of the President, and ended with me taking the job (seriously better than what I had before). We had already planned a vacation in Hawaii this past week, and the new job (which I start next week) made it all the sweeter.

    I can now confidently say that dot-com 2.0 is in effect, and President Obama's policies will help keep it going at least through 2016.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 07:57:52 AM PST

  •  President Obama is growing a mustache (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, BeloitDem, Chachy, wu ming

    This changes everything.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 10:30:50 AM PST

  •  jeb bush thinking about running for president (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, MichaelNY, James Allen
    •  Strongest candidate they have despite his name (9+ / 0-)

      Don't misunderestimate him.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 10:51:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  probably right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, MichaelNY

        and that says a lot about the republican party. let's hope he decide to spend more time with his money.

        Mr. Bush is said by friends to be weighing financial and family considerations — between so many years in office and the recession his wealth took a dip, they said, and he has been working hard to restore it — as well as the complicated place within the Republican Party of the Bush brand.
      •  I agree (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, MichaelNY, tk421, LordMike

        Like Gov. Christie, he has a somewhat moderate profile (relative to the rest of the Republican Party), but unlike Christie, he doesn't have a tendency to come off as a parody of himself. Christie's ideological bent and blunt pragmatism are qualities I think would play well with a general electorate, but his bullying attitude and frequently petty behavior won't. Jeb Bush is basically Christie without those negative qualities. The big strikes against him: by 2016, he won't have held office for almost a decade; he has conspicuously opted out of winnable races in Florida before, which leads me to wonder if he still has "fire in the belly"; and his name, obviously, is a problem for him.

        I think if Jeb Bush runs, he's going to be competing against a number of "new guard" Republicans who have a larger and more politically organized fanbase, as well as more contemporary connections inside the Beltway.

        If it turns into a 2011-esque scenario where he's the Mitt Romney analog running against a Whack-a-Mole set of assorted nincompoops and Johnnies-come-lately, he could rack up plurality wins in the primaries to come out ahead.

        But if Bush ends up as a Fred Thompson-like mystical relic in a field of fresher faces, and he doesn't have that fire in the belly to really go the distance (Thompson had this problem as well), then it's not at all hard to imagine  another "rising star" like Sen. Rubio (though I don't know if they would run against one another) beating him, or a Tea Party icon like Gov. Walker, or someone who marshals establishment support that Bush would have surely enjoyed in 2008 or 2012, like Rep. Paul Ryan (the next-in-line anyway, right?).

        He would be very dangerous in a general election, though. We have to be prepared for that.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 01:09:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Rubio and Bush would hurt each other (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          which should help Ryan or any winger if it got to be a three or even four way race.  Add Christie too, and it should be hard for a non-winger to win.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 01:28:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think the Bush name (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sacman701

          will be all that hurtful unless there's something that can be traced back to his brother or Repubicans in general. In the same way he'll have been out of office for almost a decade, his brother will have been, too. Plus, he comes across better than his brother in pretty much every imaginable way, and the media will eat that up, if only to spread the notion of the Bush/Responsible Republican Comeback or something.

          But I agree that he could be seen as yesterday's news if he doesn't really want it. I don't think he'll run, though, if he doesn't. Because of 2010, the party now has a legitimately strong stable of plausible contenders. It doesn't need him, and there won't be a lot of pressure for him to jump in if Rubio or Walker or Martinez is aching to run.

          If he does get the nomination, I think he could be a strong contender, but he's hardly lethal. It'd be quite a race to see him go up against Clinton, Warner, or even Schweitzer or O'Malley, however.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:58:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You understate how much it hurts him (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            There's nothing that's helped Democrats more in recent elections than the Bush name.

            Jeb will resuscitate it.

            Voters will not be so quickly forgiving when the Bush brand has so dominated GOP politics for so long, and in an unpopular way.

            It's quite easy for Democrats to hammer home that Jeb is the same as dad and brother, after all they're the same blood!  And Jeb believes in all the same policies!  We just force him to own or reject everything George ever did, and he's stuck.  And the media will play along with us, not with Jeb, because cornering Jeb on whether he's the same as his brother makes great copy.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:23:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Did it really hurt Romney? (0+ / 0-)

              You could easily be right, but I don't think it's a guaranteed albatross.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:28:22 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Offsetting strength/advantage (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        He's a rare GOPer with potential cred with Hispanics.  Definitely CO, NV, and even NM might be more in play than otherwise, and FL would be off the table for us.

        But the Bush brand is a problem with everyone, Hispanics included.  Jeb's dad and brother have made it harder for him.  Bushes are not popular.  And as a separate but related matter, people are conflicted on political royalty, both drawn to it and uneasy with it.

        On balance, I'd be very happy with Democrats having a Bush to run against.  It's more plus for us and minus for them, IMO.  They're better off with someone new.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:20:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  He'll have been out of office for a LONG time... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, tk421, askew

      ... he'll have last run for an election in 2002 -- fourteen years before. He'll have been out of office for ten years.

      That said, his name and prominence probably make that non-fatal for him, whereas it would be for most other candidates. It's unusual though, and it could suggest greater rustiness on the campaign trail than one could otherwise expect.

      •  Nixon and Reagan had both been out too (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        Though neither as long as Jeb. Hillary would be out of elective office quite a while too. Frankly, rustiness aside, it may actually be a plus with voters.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 01:39:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Reagan was out for 10 years (0+ / 0-)

        IIRC.

        Nixon was out of office for 8.

        •  Reagan was out for six (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Governor from Jan. 1967 to Jan. 1975. (Similar to Romney, had he won.)

          So yes, a ten-year absence from electoral politics would be unusually long. Not saying he couldn't do it - just pointing out that it is a long time and he could prove rustier on the campaign trail or less appealing to rank-and-file than one might expect.

          •  I think time out from running would be harder (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Than being out of office. But not fatal. He is dangerous. No question about it. But Democrats might need Hillary whoever they nominate. I've changed my mind on that factor. I think she wants to take her own time out and then be seen to be "drafted" back in. The opposite of "inevitability" in 2008.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:10:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Reagan did run in '76 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          And Nixon in CA '62.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 01:55:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Indeed, people say his name hurts him (6+ / 0-)

        but the only reason we're still talking about him for fucking 2016 is because he's Jeb BUSH.

        •  A popular two-term Florida (4+ / 0-)

          Governor called John Ellis would be likely GOP nominee either last time or this. His name is both a positive and negative. But he is far superior in every way to his brother. People have short memories hence the son following the father.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 01:48:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  A little different situation (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, askew

            Bush 41 finished his only term with a decent approval rating.  

            His biggest problem, in many people's view, was that the economy didnt recover quick enough. A very different situation from Bush 43.

            If he does run, it seems like it would force the GOP to do something they dont really want to do: talk about George W. Bush's time in office.

            •  I just figure 4 years from now (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

              The way people feel about Barack Obama will have far greater impact than opinions of George Bush.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:57:34 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  True, but I think because of his last name (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, MichaelNY, askew

                he is going to have differentiate himself from his brother's policies. And I wonder if a primary challenger criticizes Bush 43's policies from the right. Not to mention, Jeb's moderation on a lot of issues wont sit well with the base.

                I dont underestimate him, but I think in 2016, there will be a Republican presidential candidate who will be more conservative than Jeb and probably just as electable.

                I'm not sure why the base would go with Jeb in that scenario.  

                •  The base rarely get their way (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, LordMike

                  At least in terms of the presidential nomination. The establishment still holds plenty sway in that regard. Sure, Romney had lots of luck and money but he was next in line like all the rest before him.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 03:16:26 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  But I dont know if he will be the (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike, MichaelNY, askew

                    establishment nominee.

                    •  Here is the way I look at it (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, askew

                      What advantage does Jeb bring that, say, Susana Martinez or Scott Walker doesnt?

                      Martinez and Walker are probably as conservative as Jeb(Walker probably moreso), and arguably more electable. They have both won in blue leaning states, and would not have to a discussion about their last name or the Bush admin policies.

                      And assuming he can handle those issues, I think there would still be a "here we go again" feeling with Jeb. I mean, another Bush as a nominee? Not really inspiring. This might be less of an issue if Hillary is the Dem nominee, but her husband's presidency is actually viewed favorably, and I think Dems would be very excited about the prospective of electing the first female president.

                      The only big advantage for Jeb might be that he guarantees a FL win, and I'm not sure if that is true. After some of the misses by certain pollsters this cycle, I'm hesitant to call Florida for a GOP nominee this early. :)

                      •  I think it's true (0+ / 0-)

                        A favorite son would win FL.

                        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                        by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 12:18:23 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Maybe, although I'd LOVE to see it (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          be within 2 or 3 points for the entire election. It'd make for entertaining analysis, and if it turned out to be the margin in the end, it'd confirm that nobody really has an edge in the state and that it will always be a dog fight.

                          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                          by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:09:13 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                      •  Jeb (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        LordMike, hankmeister, MichaelNY

                        He's certainly smarter than Walker and probably smarter than Martinez. He has much more crossover appeal than Walker, whose recall performance is misleading because a lot of his vote was anti-recall, not pro-Walker. He's been a national public figure for a long time, while Martinez is still a fairly obscure governor of a small state.

                        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                        by sacman701 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:06:19 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Mythbusting WI (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY
                          He has much more crossover appeal than Walker, whose recall performance is misleading because a lot of his vote was anti-recall, not pro-Walker.
                          Politifact rates this claim as: Mostly False

                          It doesn't explain why Walker currently has a 54% approval rating in a state that went for Obama by 7 points.

                          Walker is the hypnotoad.  He is able to mesmerize the electorate by making his extremely radical policies somewhat palatable.  He is an extremely dangerous and formidable candidate.

                          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                          by LordMike on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:37:36 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Both you and sacman can be right. (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, LordMike

                            Let's remember that Obama recently had approval ratings of 58 percent despite getting less than that in the popular vote just a short time after the election ended. I don't understand why that would happen, but it's quite common.

                            I think it's fair to say that Walker surviving the recall process was in large part because a significant chunk of people didn't like it. In other states, I'd be more skeptical of that claim, but in Wisconsin, it makes sense. (I also believe that had he tried to mess with collective bargaining for all public workers, he could easily have seen the same problems as Kasich, if only because those directly affected by it might have been motivated. I know some don't agree with me here, though.)

                            Of course, he doesn't come across as a true radical to much of the population, so he is indeed dangerous in that regard. That's probably why he's so appealing to them. Still, this doesn't mean that the recall was a direct expression of approval for him.

                            By the way, have there been any new developments in the fight against his legislation? I seem to recall that some judge (from Dane County?) ruled against him, which made it unclear whether the legislation was valid, although I haven't heard much since.

                            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                            by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 10:07:08 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  It wasn't 54% on the day of the recall (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, LordMike

                            His job approval was less than that on recall day, although still net positive.

                            Walker won the recall because he and allies spent massive millions on unchallenged and unanswered TV ads.  It's really as simple as that.  Walker opponents didn't have the money for that until late.  And then having no nominee until late also hurt, it was tough to make up ground in just one month.  Walker successfully defined himself and his agenda before opponents could do so.

                            But no question Walker is in pretty good shape now, and would be very tough to beat today.  But 2014 is not today.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:13:40 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  After losing yet again to a Democrat, (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        LordMike, tietack, MichaelNY

                        I think anyone that polls well will have an advantage. If Bush's argument is that he can finally, FINALLY, regain the White House for your party, he might go far.

                        I don't think there's all that much to the notion that people simply prefer a change after eight years, and even if there is, it might not apply any more, considering how the country is changing. But if there's a "Let's give the Republicans another shot" mentality, a relatively boring candidate like Bush might be exactly what they need, as opposed to an ideological firecracker like Walker or Ryan.

                        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                        by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:15:28 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  OTOH, some may be willing to (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          give the Republicans another shot, but perhaps not another Bush.

                          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                          by James Allen on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 10:42:49 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Well, sure. (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            It's not as if I think Bush is really helped by his name, outside of any institutional power it may give him, but I just don't see it being a big problem unless there's something specific that the race revolves around. If that's the case, he looks like a reasonably smart and successful who isn't all that moderate but doesn't come across like a lunatic who happens to be from an important swing state.

                            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                            by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 11:51:46 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  I think "here we go again" is BINGO (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        That's a great way to put it, how people will react to Jeb Bush.  It's not that it's impossible for him to overcome that, but it's something very tough for him to overcome.

                        And to make it worse, he'd have to overcome it twice, in both the primaries and then the general.  Strong rival GOP wannabes won't defer to him, the way the party establishment deferred to Dubya in 2000.  Rubio might stand down as a junior Floridian, but others won't.  So Jeb has his work cut out for him on both fronts.  And immigration and Hispanic support is not an attraction with GOP voters, so that doesn't really help him.  He's in a box that way because if the the Congressional GOPers acquiesce on immigration reform, then Jeb offers the party nothing so unique, and if they don't acquiesce then rank-and-file GOPers remain hardened against Hispanics and Jeb doesn't offer anything they want.

                        This is among the problems of being out of office for so long.  It hurt Mitt, too.  You have no control to shape events, to shape the news, to show what you stand for instead of just talking about it.  You're a bystander trying to get attention.  Romney got the nomination anyway because everyone else was a clown candidate.  But Jeb won't have that advantage.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:19:31 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Romney had the advantage (0+ / 0-)

                          that he had no recent record and no compunction about campaigning against his record as Governor of Massachusetts. It cuts both ways. I suppose that most Republican candidates who are currently or were recently governors or members of Congress will have done something someone doesn't like. Tea Partyism works best when it's being spouted off by someone who doesn't actually have to try to govern.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:11:34 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I don't think those things helped him (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            I think those things only hurt him.  So I don't think they were an advantage.

                            They actually hurt him in the primaries, but not enough to lose to clown candidates.  But enough to go broke in surprisingly extended battles to beat them.

                            Yeah, he had no recent record and the record he had, he ran from.  That's why GOP primary voters flirted to heavily with Gingrich and then Santorum in the first place.  If Mitt had been a 2-term Governor with a record he could've and would've embraced, I don't think Newt or Santorum ever would've gotten any oxygen, and Romney would've wrapped it up in January.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:09:58 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  But my point is a record (0+ / 0-)

                            almost any record can be scrutinized by Tea Party extremists who have no interest in practical governing.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:29:15 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  I don't agree that it necessarily hurts (0+ / 0-)

                          him as much as you think it does, although your comments raise an interesting question: do Jeb's potential rivals attack him along the lines you described?

                          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                          by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:31:45 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't think that's the right juxtaposition (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    The juxtaposition isn't base vs. establishment, it's serious campaign vs. unserious.  Being an establishment candidate makes it easier to establish a serious campaign, but it's not essential if you can establish your own rival fundraising and professional staffing structure.

                    But even further, Jeb is not going to get a free pass in 2016, no one is going to stand down for him.  This isn't going to be like 2000, this time the establishment is going to be very nervous about running another Bush and letting our side just run against his family...and that means a lot of up-and-comers waiting in the wings are not going to defer to Jeb, several can and will run serious campaigns that can beat Jeb.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 05:08:16 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  The thought of President Scott Walker (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, LordMike, bjssp, askew

                  scares the shit out of me.

            •  Bush 41's approval (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              was actually lousy throughout most of 1992, bottoming out at 29%.  He did get something of a "bounce" after his defeat, surpassing 50% in January 1993, which is somewhat ironic, but it may have stuck in a sense in that to this day he remains better regarded than his son.

              It's interesting how both Bushes had record high approval ratings for a time and how thoroughly they cratered, though 43's stayed at both the highest and lowest levels for longer and ultimately sank deeper.

              37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:44:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  People's memories were long enough this year (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, askew

            for a sufficient number of them to still blame Bush and not Obama for the lousy economy.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 02:44:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I think he wins the GOP nomination easily... (0+ / 0-)

      I'd suspect the deck would be partially cleared for him as well.  Christie wouldn't run against him, Portman wouldn't run against him, Rubio wouldn't run etc.  

      I think Sec. Clinton would be the only Dem who could beat him.  

      He's a white man(key for GOP), but married to a Mexican-American woman, with kids, and speaks fluent Spanish(important for changing demographics of country).

      As morbid as this sounds, I think one of President Bush 41 or Dick Cheney die within the next four years.  GHW Bush looks very frail these days and he'll be remembered greatly.  And if Cheney dies, every bad think Dubya did will be blamed on Cheney and Dubya was well meaning but in over his head and controlled by Cheney and how Jeb is really the smart Bush 41 son.  In either case the Bush name will be re-established as something other than mud.  

      2016 will be a VERY important election with Scalia and Kennedy seats on SCOTUS to be replaced by the 45th President.  

      Jeb Bush vs Sec. Clinton would be a battle royale.  I think Jeb would choose a female running mate to try and peel off some of the appeal Clinton would have as trying to be the first female President by offering the first female Vice President.  Kelly Ayotte or Susana Martinez make sense here.   I think Ayotte will make more sense as she's trying to burnish national security cred in the Senate right now, hanging around with Graham and McCain.  Gov Martinez might make the ticket too Latino for the GOP base and might come off like the obvious pander.  

      I think Sec. Clinton would have to counter the Latino appeal Bush would peel off from Obama Latino voters given the opportunity Jeb would offer as having the first family be Latino-American by choosing a Latino running mate.  Problem here is Dems don`t have any in the Senate or Gov`ships.  I think Pres Obama will have to name Julian Castro to a high profile Cabinet spot for 2015-2016 to get him Washington experience assuming Julian runs for 2014 Texas Governorship and fails as GOP will move heaven and earth to make sure a Dem, especially a Latino Dem doesn't win Texas Governorship.  Mayor Castro talks a lot about Education, maybe Pres could move Duncan aside to give Castro that spot as Secretary of Education for two years - it's not one of the high profile ones, but it could still be a good launching platform.  

      Bush/Ayotte vs Clinton/Castro - cybersquat on those domain names while you can.

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 06:39:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Believe it or not (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, HoosierD42, askew, DCCyclone

        women and latinos don't just vote for someone who looks like them / is married to someone who looks like them. And lationos love Hilary.

        •  Yeah, but (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          if GW Bush could get into the mid-40s with hispanics in 2004, then Jeb could be expected to at least improve a fair bit on Romney's performance.

          •  Bush never got into the mid-40s, and... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            ...there's no reason to "expect" Jeb to "improve" on Dubya's performance, or even do as well as Dubya did.

            The national exit poll in 2004 was just plain wrong, that's well documented.  Better digging through of the data shows that the Hispanic vote went 58-40 for Kerry, not 53-44.  It's been reported, even just a few months ago, that Bush's own team after the '04 election dismissed the 53-44 exit poll showing, they privately acknowledged they didn't do that well.

            And there's no reason to think Jeb will top that.  One thing that significantly hurts him, as I pointed out above, is that he's out of office for a long time, with no stage to do anything except talk.  That hurt Romney, and it hurts Jeb even more since he'll have serious primary challengers, not just clown candidates like Romney ran against.  And Hispanic support is no benefit in GOP primaries.

            If you're talking November, sure Jeb can do better than most Republicans with Hispanics.  But it's no guarantee, the name "Bush" is no more popular among Hispanics than others......Hispanics were not happy with the Bush Administration and Dubya probably would've done worse than McCain had there been no term limits and Dubya was the nominee vs. Obama.

            Things have changed since 2004, you can't assume Hispanics wouldn't be just as repelled as anyone by the Bush name nowadays.  Florida might be different, but elsewhere, I wouldn't assume an attraction.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:28:31 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Where did they acknowledge (0+ / 0-)

              that the exit polling with Hispanics was wrong?

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:35:56 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe hard to find the links now, but... (0+ / 0-)

                ...I remember finding them years ago, and they included Warren Mitovsky himself, the father of exit polling, conceding and lamenting that the 2004 national exit poll Hispanic data point wasn't reliable.

                It wasn't just Hispanics, the national exit poll that year overstated Bush's numbers with Asians and Jews, too, and perhaps one or two other traditionally Democratic groups.

                The problem was thought to be poor precinct selection, which of course is one element of sample selection.

                The state exit polls got a more representative mix of precincts that year, and therefore the state-level numbers aggregated produced better numbers for Kerry than the national exit poll did.

                Of course conversely, Kerry might have done a point or two worse with whites than the national exit poll claimed, since the exit poll data is rigged (openly by design, not anything hidden or otherwise corrupt) to match actual election results.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 07:55:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Not all. But to say it doesn't/won't happen (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          I think is being in denial.  It's not meant to be negative or insulting - I mean there is a push here to elect more women, and there are Dem groups that push to elect women over men in Dem primaries for the sole reason they are female candidates - politics are secondary.   African American community was highly motivated to elect Pres Obama, LGBT Community heavily backed Tammy Baldwin.

          I expect comprehensive immigration reform to be passed in the next four years, taking that huge wedge issue off the table and beating down the GOP fearmongering and bigotry going forward.  

          They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

          by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:28:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Which Democratic groups push women (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            regardless of politics? I can't think of any. EMILY's list, for example, requires all the female candidates they push to be pro-choice.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:04:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  yes but that's 99% of Democratic female candidates (0+ / 0-)

              Kathy Dahlkemper is the only recent exception.

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Mon Nov 26, 2012 at 01:52:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think Jeb's that lethal (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, MichaelNY

        even if he is a strong candidate. Warner is easily his peer, even if he's kind of boring, and given the construction of our bases in each state, he is much more likely to lock up Virginia for us than Bush is to lock up Florida for the Republicans.

        I also don't think he clears the field that easily, given the current leadership vacuum in the party. Well, maybe Rubio doesn't run, but why does Walker really care? Why does Martinez?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:20:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Saw Skyfall! (7+ / 0-)

    Holy crap, that was awesome!!!

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 01:23:39 PM PST

    •  One of the better James Bod movies (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      Not quite at Goldfinger level, but MUCH better than that piece of s*** Quantum of Solace.

    •  Pretty fantastic (4+ / 0-)

      I also saw Wreck-It Ralph recently, and it was classic Disney (in the best way), I was tearing up at the end.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:45:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I saw Silver Linings Playbook last night. (0+ / 0-)

      I fell asleep for part of it, as I usually do, and I am not sure whether I missed just a minute or two or a little more. Regardless, it was a great, great movie. It had something for everyone and would be a perfect date movie.

      I had never seen this Jennifer Lawrence girl in anything, but man, if she gets good career advice, she's easily going to have a lasting career. She's pretty without trying too hard and had excellent an outstanding presence and chemistry with the entire cast, even someone like DeNiro. Bradley Cooper shows he's very talented, too.

      Hey, Hollywood, take note: when you have a good script and put people in the movie that can actually act, the end result is something good.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:25:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lawrence had the lead role in (0+ / 0-)

        the Hunger Games, which is the first movie I've seen her in.  She was very good in that as well.

        •  I think bjssp was being sarcastic? (0+ / 0-)

          She's pretty well known at this point. Interestingly, the only movie I've seen her in was X-Men first class as Mystique, and I liked her in that. (The movie overall was pretty good and certainly a lot better than that shit Wolverine origin movie).

          She was also in Winter's Bone two years ago, which I didn't see and didn't make a very big splash, but was aparently nominated for like 50 million awards.

          •  What I meant was that Lawrence is talented (0+ / 0-)

            and has the ability to carry a movie, or so it would seem based on the one movie I've seen her in. She could put some asses in the seats, no matter what sort of movie she was in--whether something with a built-in fan base like The Hunger Games or something new. There aren't that many people like that in Hollywood these days. Even formerly reliable draws like Tom Hanks.

            I remember her being nominated for that movie and having no idea who she was. I never saw it, though.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:42:25 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  So Dave Wasserman's being a smartass on twitter (7+ / 0-)

    Now that Romney's within a 100th of a percent of rounding to 47%, Wasserman's reporting his numbers to a 10,000 of a percent. With every update.

  •  Some really early thoughts on 2020 reapportionment (6+ / 0-)

    According to a RCP article from just under a year ago, the following now look likely to change with the next round of congressional reapportionment

    +3 - TX
    +1 - CA, CO, FL, NC, OR

    -1 - IL, NY, MI, MN, PA, OH, RI, WV.

    Some initial thoughts.

    Even though the map again looks not so good for Democrats, I don't think it will work out that way.

    On gains:

    1.  Republicans in Texas will give at least two, if not all three, seats to Democrats in an effort to shore up incumbents.  
    2.  The same basic system is likely in North Carolina and Florida, presuming Republicans still control both and Democrats haven't made any strange inroads not predictable now.  
    3.  The California, Colorado, and Oregon seats could go either way.  I'd say Oregon is the most likely stacked against us, it will be difficult if Republicans are at the table at all (or if nonpartisan redistricting is passed) to argue that a Republican-leaning seat in Southern Oregon isn't a good idea.  

    On losses:

    1.  Even presuming Republicans still hold trifectas in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, they'll cede one of their own (or a bizarre-ass pickup we make this decade), as the maps will be so stacked against us that it would be a dummymander to do more.  
    2.  One way or another, one of the three rural seats will be lost in Minnesota.  
    3.  The NY seat will be almost certainly be a loss upstate.  
    4.  Obviously with RI going down to an at-large state we're pretty screwed there.  
    5.  West Virginia's decline to two congressional seats is why I don't bemoan the likely loss of WV-03 this decade.  
    6.  Illinois has the biggest downside in my mind, since it's  playing defense following "near perfect" gerrymander.  I'm sure the seat which will need to go will be downstate.  I'll hazard a guess it will be IL-12, as the long-term dynamics there aren't favorable to us.  

    The bottom line is, even presuming a similar partisan breakdown to now, I can't see how this would result in the net loss of more than 1-2 Democratic seats, and it would quite likely result in a net gain.  

    •  Saying they'll "get rid of" IL-12 is a bit strong (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      More likely that they'll make a solidly Dem seat from the Dem parts of IL-12 and 13 based around East St Louis. Although that could be awkward if we hold both seats in 2020.

    •  southern Oregon is too small for a district. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      look at DRA.

      There's some talk about three things:

      1) a coastal district.  There's also not enough population for that.  However, if you put a few inland counties in, maybe more of Lane, or Josephine, Benton, or Polk, and then put the west side of Portland in, it'll be fine, and a 5th Dem district, so long as it has Benton &/or a good portion of Portland.

      2) a Eugene-Bend district.  Take the areas south of Lane County out of the 4th, and put in Deschutes, and DeFazio's district is safer.

      3) a gorge district, with some of the east side of Portland, eastern Multnomah County, Hood River, Wasco, and beyond.  In fact, if you do it right, it's as Democratic as Blumenauer's was for the past decade.

      In fact, all three can be done on the same map.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 06:06:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Would any district... (0+ / 0-)

        With Lane in it be a solid D seat, even if all of Jackson County ended up in it?  

        Regardless, my original point stands.  It's possible of course to draw a 5/6 D map in Oregon, but that's only presuming that the Democrats have the trifecta, and that no nonpartisan redistricting system has been passed via ballot initiative.  If the Republicans have a seat at the table, it will be hard to argue against at minimum creating a "fair fight" district.  And if it's nonpartisan, the shuffling will create a seat somewhere than Republicans have a better shot at than OR-4 and OR-5 currently.  

        •  If you do a district that is all of Jackson (0+ / 0-)

          Douglas and almost all of Lane, it's about D+2, like it is now.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 04:29:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  GA-SEN: Chambliss criticizes Norquist (4+ / 0-)

    link.

    Doesnt seem like he is concerned about a primary challenge. I've been skeptical about whether he would get one, especially from a member of the US House delegation. But I guess it depends on how "bad" that deficit reduction deal is, in terms of tax increases.

    And I dont think we should really be rooting for a primary challenge, since the winner of the GOP primary(even Paul Broun) will probably be the next senator in conservative GA. Especially since we are talking about a midterm election.

    The Dem bench isnt deep but there are some potentially strong candidates. Rep. John Barrow has to be at the top of the list after his impressive re-election margin earlier this month. Former state AG Thurbert Baker might be a good candidate as well.

    •  I'd rather Barrow stay put where he is (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, James Allen

      because without him, GA-12 is lost (the fact he won by over 7% this year was impressive).  Also, it smacks of Jim Cooper's Senate run in '94.  He, like Barrow, was a Congressman in a conservative district (in the 1980's and early 90's, Cooper had approximately the same district as Desjarlais), but lost in a landslide.

      Baker could do it, though.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 06:39:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Senate seats (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingTag, MichaelNY

        are more valuable than House seats. Especially House seats that we have to spend way too much money to defend.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:48:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is there any sort of Democratic strength (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack, MichaelNY

          in Barrow's district? I don't know much about his area, but before I look into it, I figured I'd ask to see if there are any obvious names.

          It's one thing if we are looking at a Matheson-type situation, where he was elected by the skin of his teeth in a much redder state, where the Democratic party is arguably much weaker and might not get better any time soon. Georgia's party probably isn't strong, but the pieces for a more powerful party are there. So even if there's no seemingly strong contenders, i.e. a state senator or something, I wouldn't let that stop us. We have the means to try someone new, even if it is a mid-term election.

          That said, the better option might be to try someone who has less to lose.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:31:38 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I wonder if the UPS CEO has any ambitions (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, MichaelNY

            Scott Davis is an Oregon native, and at least at first glance, seems to have the right profile to run competitively in Georgia. (appointed by Bush to the Atlanta Fed, appointed by Obama to the Export Council)

            I hope; therefore, I can live.

            by tietack on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:52:36 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I like the idea of (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack

              that District Attorney whose name I can't really remember that has a III at the end of it. If I recall correctly, he's black, which might help with turnout, but his legal background might make him appealing to parts of the electorate we'd need to win.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 10:09:15 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  There are no other Democrats who can win GA-12 (7+ / 0-)

            unfortunately. The Georgia Democratic Party has really collapsed. Republicans just got supermajorities in the state legislature. What I mean by this - races like GA-1 and GA-12 can be competitive, but we need a candidate that has built in name recognition as a moderate or conservative Democrat. We can't be building up from ground zero here; otherwise people just assume the Democrat is a crazy socialist. Since we quite literally have no viable state legislators from this district, Barrow is our only hope here.

            Most people expect Barrow to run for reelection. Tom Price, Karen Handel and Saxby Chambliss are all within the mainstream of Georgia politics. There was a sense that Akin and Mourdock were kind of crazy even before they brought up rape. The only candidates Barrow could beat are Paul Broun and Lynn Westmoreland. Barrow might actually have a better chance trying to defeat the crazily corrupt Nathan Deal than running for Senate.

            As for who the Senate candidate should be - you're right, it needs to be someone who has less to lose. Attorney General Baker would be a potentially good candidate. However, like I said, the candidates on the Republican side are not out of the mainstream. At least not yet.

            •  How are Deal's approval ratings? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 11:12:51 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  A few things: (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              1. Were the losses in the GGA really bad because of 2010, because of redistricting, or because of some people that were elected as Democrats in 2010 switching, as I recall happening? Was it kind of all three?

              2. If there are no viable legislators, what about county executives, city councilman, or DAs? It's a House district, so it seems less necessary to get a bigger name than it would be for a Senate race, but I didn't realize how small some of the counties were in Barrow's current district.

              The same question about these current office holders, assuming there are some, for the Senate race.

              3. As far as the state legislative districts go, if not now, then when? It won't be easy, but building from the ground up is necessary at this point, isn't it? I mean, what other options do we have?

              I don't doubt that Chambliss is well within the boundaries of Georgia politics, but the reason we are discussing taking him on, aside the fact that it looks like one of our better pick up opportunities out of a list of really shitty options, is that he could be primaried. In fact, it looks he will be primaried from the right. Barrow won a tough district by a decent margin, so it makes sense to look at him, I think.

              All of that said, we probably have other options who don't threaten a seat we currently hold, so I'd probably go with one of them.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 11:47:24 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Responses (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                1. Redistricting and South Georgia just trending Republican. The Georgia Senate Democratic Caucus is exclusively Atlanta and VRA black districts in Southern Georgia. No more white rural Democrats. Not even one. Same with the House of Representatives.

                2. Those ideas seem fine. But again, you can't win a congressional seat like GA-1 or GA-12 without a lot of money or name recognition. Otherwise you'll be pounded into the sand as a socialist liberal. If you have name recognition like John Barrow, people are able to associate you with a different type of Democrat and you have a better chance of being elected. City/county officials (where there still are some) don't have a wide enough support net to enter the campaign with a solid backing. And of course, they have to prove themselves viable to national groups. My personal wish would be to have county officials run for state legislative districts (smaller so they are better known) and use that as a building platform for Georgia Democrats. The problem, of course, is that the state legislative map is so gerrymandered that the chances of Democrats winning any seats in South Georgia are low. Maybe we can get a random businessman or something.

                3. Look at my response to Question 2. County officials should run for state legislatures. We've seen enormous success in holding key state legislative seats in MS and AR by running county officials that neutralize the "liberal Democrat" attack.

                4. The problem - Not only is Chambliss well within the mainstream of Georgia politics, but Price and Handel are too. There was a definite realization before the rape comment that Mourdock and Akin were too conservative for their states. There's no such issue here.

                •  Off the top of my head (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                  Some potential candidates:

                  *Bill Harrell - Sheriff, Laurens County
                  *Doyle T. Wooten - Sheriff, Coffee County (ousted a Republican incumbent in 2012)
                  *J.T. Stevens - Sheriff, Emanuel County

                  •  This is for Barrow's seat, I assume... (0+ / 0-)

                    I should also add that while I think it's probably better for the long-term if we focus on the state legislatures, I don't think we should give up on trying for the House seats. I'm not saying we should run candidates that are way out of whack with the areas, only that we shouldn't be afraid of the party label. The worst thing that happens is that we lose. Eventually, people will find out that aren't scary, even if they don't always agree with us.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:52:32 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  In other words (0+ / 0-)

                  Every Democratic state rep or senator in Georgia is black and every Republican is white?

                  22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                  by wwmiv on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 12:38:47 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  They've gerrymandered... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  To ensure there is no representation for Athens at the state senate and state legislature level?  

                •  That makes sense. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I try to be optimistic and aggressive, but if the problems are far worse than I imagine them to be, I wonder if the better solution is to focus more of our energy at the state legislative level, and not just in Georgia.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:45:46 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Our problems are uniquely poor in Georgia (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, bjssp

                    The Democrats in the State Legislature have not stood for anything for a decade. There's no statewide figure in Georgia that people can get excited about (like Jim Hood in Alabama, Mike Beebe in Arkansas, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana etc. And there's no effort to even put up generic Democrats in a lot of statewide legislative races. Winning on the presidential level will happen before winning on the statewide level.

                    The problem with attempting to work on the state legislature is that the districts are so gerrymandered. My inclination is to choose a sheriff or a county commissioner, get him to be very well funded and run him against Kingston in a year that favors us on the national level. Kingston's kind of clueless and doesn't really know how to campaign. And then Barrow can keep running and winning and hopefully build a local party in GA-12.

                    •  It's funny in an odd way that you say Democrats (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      in Georgia haven't stood for anything in a decade, yet if they aren't known like John Barrow, people will assume they are evil socialists or something. I don't doubt the severity of their problems, but something has to break the cycle. Why not get started on trying to do it as soon as possible?

                      It's certainly harder to field good candidates when you don't have many to draw upon as is, but if there's one positive in all of this, it's that running in one race over another doesn't necessarily cost us as much as it otherwise would. What we need now is wins, no matter at what level.

                      I know it seems a little...flightly, perhaps, or even just incorrect to think of it this way, but why not just try a few tactics and themes to see what works, even in the gerrymandered races? In addition to possibly improving our strategic practices, we could find some good candidates who might like to try again if they don't win the first time.

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:15:05 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I agree with you that we need to break the cycle (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        bjssp, MichaelNY, bumiputera

                        The question is how to do it. Do we start in the state legislature? Do we challenge Kingston? From my perspective, having Barrow stay in GA-12 and build a local Democratic Party and getting rid of Kingston would be the first two targets. Kingston's district is 43% Obama by 2012 numbers. That's a whole lot better than most state legislative districts in South Georgia and is actually the same as John Barrow's.

                        I think a lot of people are reluctant to run because they know they are going to lose (again, gerrymandering). A lot of people don't understand the "build a party!" thing, which is a mindset we need to change if we are ever going to win the House of Representatives majority again. There are also a lot of people who never have aspirations beyond the local level. And additionally, there are no statewide Democrats to help fine tune the party's strategy. We need a central state party that is willing to experiment with different themes and actually get people enthusiastic about running on the Democratic ticket again.

                        Come to think of it, the first thing that needs to happen is the removal of all state party Democratic heads in the south (except maybe Will Bond). Someone dynamic who has a vision beyond "let's relegate ourselves to urban areas" can come in and fix things up.

                        By the way, Kasim Reed might be the person to do it.

                        •  I'm going to come back to this post, GradyDem, (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, bumiputera

                          time and time again, because it's nice to see some optimism.

                          I only questioned Kasim Reed's ability to go beyond Atlanta because I figured there might be some sort of tension between that city and the rest of the state as well as some unfortunate problems with his race. You seem to be implying I am wrong, and if that's the case, excellent.

                          As far as where to start, I'd say all of the above. Financing such races might be difficult, and surely some races that look legitimately promising, such as flipping Kington's seat, shouldn't be treated the same as those that are long shots. But then, you seem to be implying that there are few legitimately good opportunities, so perhaps there's no huge trade off involved. A strategy of trying to win multiple races at once, basically throwing everything against the wall to see what sticks, might make sense for a cycle or two. We could see what works and what does and, depending on if an where we win, have a better idea of where to target.

                          A lot of this, by the way, would probably be helpful over the short- and long-term. Unless things just get worse and worse and worse for us, we will start to win races again. Getting better at contesting them will probably make us stronger and help us win more, which will help us get more money and better candidates.

                          There's only so much more that I can say about this right now, but I just hope that people aren't becoming complacent with their losses.

                          Oh yeah, as far as Barrow goes, it's probably best if he stays put. We could probably run other candidates who would be competitive, and even if we can't run someone aside from a C-Lister, that's not the worst thing. A novice who is smart and tough might give us a better idea of what our base statewide is, and on the off chance that we win, we won't be sacrificing what we already have.

                          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                          by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:58:03 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

        •  In general, I'd agree (0+ / 0-)

          But at a time when the Democrats have control of the Senate (albeit threatened) and are at a significant deficit in the House, that's arguable.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:05:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  GA-12 is a lost cause without Barrow (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            The same cannot be said of other winnable districts. Let Republicans have the 12th and we can use the money we would otherwise spend defending the seat to target seats more effectively.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 10:20:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  This gives me hope for the fiscal cliff (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      Although this might signal a primary to Chambliss from the right.

      •  At this point... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY, bjssp, ehstronghold

        I think a primary from the right -- or a fuck-it Olympia Snowe/Evan Bayh-style retirement -- is a near certainty.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 09:18:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Plausible (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Perhaps 20 years in Washington would be enough for Senator Saxby Chambliss

          •  Whatever happens... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Assuming Sen. Chambliss isn't renominated and we get that small opening, we need either Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, Rep. John Barrow, or Rep. Sanford Bishop to run.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:15:01 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Why Sanford Bishop? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Didn't he have ethics issues a couple years back and only held on narrowly (thanks to late returns from rural black precincts)?

              What about the Mayor of Macon?

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:42:25 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I don't really want to lose (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              OGGoldy

              Barrow's or Bishop's seats in a stretch Senate race.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:09:54 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Barrow's seat, with him constantly moving right (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack, SaoMagnifico

                is of no consequence compared to a 40% chance of winning the Senate seat.

                Basically we need some polling.  If Barrow is within 10 points in Spring, he should run if there is the slightest hint that a winger might go after Saxby.  Under that scenario, Barrow could be 50% against the winger.

                Giving up his seat with a 45% of the Senate seat should be a no-brainer, as he is only a 60% fave (or whatever) to hold the House seat anyway.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:24:10 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  First, I think 40% is a wildly inflated figure (0+ / 0-)

                  I doubt that a Democrat will have any more than a 25-30% chance of winning a Senate seat in Georgia, at most. Second, to retake the House, we need people who will vote Democratic for Speaker, regardless of what else they vote for or against.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:28:54 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Disclaimer: I think we have close to 0% chance (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Inoljt, SaoMagnifico

                    of taking the House this decade, whereas we have a significant chance of losing the Senate.

                    Barrow's House seat then is trivial.  Even a 25% chance against Saxby is a no brainer to do, assuming again a winger challenge in the Republican primary.

                    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                    by tommypaine on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:39:33 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Based on your premise (0+ / 0-)

                      I understand your conclusion.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:00:34 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  I completely agree with this. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 05:18:38 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  How old are our potential candidates? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      If this isn't a ridiculous way to look at these races, I wonder if the best solution is to find a solid candidate that isn't John Barrow and, if it looks like he or she will lose, use 2014 as a warm-up for 2016. I imagine that, short of some implosion closer to election day, the state of the race will be fairly clear in advance. If that's the case, then we can introduce our candidate to the whole state and establish a solid image for him or her, hoping that 2016 proves better than 2014.

                      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                      by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 10:05:34 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Given that the white vote in GA is down to 60% (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  (30% African Americans) A D with sufficient name recognition should be within 10 points in polling. It's getting that last bit that would be rather difficult.

                  I hope; therefore, I can live.

                  by tietack on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 04:14:02 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  At the same time, how much (0+ / 0-)

                    of that margin would be erased merely by campaigning there, not so much in the counties directly surrounding Atlanta that are big and diverse, but in the ones elsewhere that are smaller but still big but very,very white?

                    Take Forsyth County, for instance. It's about 95 percent white and has about 175,000 people total. About 82,000 people voted in this past election (as of right now, it seems). Obama won about 18 percent of the vote. Had he gotten, say, 25 percent, that would have been worth about 5,000 more votes. Unless the situation there is just more dire than I could even imagine, that seems like a realistic goal. Do that around the state, and before you know it, a sizable chunk of the margin is gone.

                    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                    by bjssp on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 08:31:24 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Bishop's seat will be quite hard for Dems to lose. (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, James Allen, SaoMagnifico

                They gave it Macon.

                Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

                by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:25:30 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  We're not likely to lose Bishop's seat (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                It's more Democratic since redistricting, as GOP mapmakers worked to shore up Austin Scott nearby.

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:30:08 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Agree. This is not a winnable race. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                The only conceivable way I can see an upset win is if we have someone like Baker able to drum up black turnout, with a GOP nominee who is deeply flawed in a truly crazy way.  Problem is, even then it's probably lean R at best.

                Demographics will make Georgia winnable for us eventually, but that's still several cycles away.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 07:59:41 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  You are very likely to be right (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone

                  Another problem with Georgia is that if neither candidate gets 50% as a result of a minor-party (e.g., Libertarian) candidate, there would be a runoff, and Democrats have a poor record in runoffs in Georgia, at least in the races I remember.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:14:08 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Runoff system is killer for us, yes (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    We can't win a runoff in Georgia.  The turnout model is awful for us every time, we can't get anyone to show up for Round 2.

                    The first sign of shift for us will be winning Georgia in a Presidential or coming within a hair of it.  It will be awhile after that before we can win in the midterm years, when state offices are up.

                    I can picture where we're in a hotly-contested tossup race for Governor or for a U.S. Senate seat where our side is energized enough that everyone shows up for a runoff.  That's realistic as a one-off.  But for us to win runoffs consistently, we have to get to where white registered voters are down in the mid-40s, I think...and maybe even low-40s.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:14:02 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  I wouldn't be so sure about that. (0+ / 0-)

                  I haven't looked at Georgia in a while, but assuming we had a solid candidate, I wouldn't be as skeptical about us winning statewide as I would be flipping certain districts. One vote in Atlanta is as good as a vote anywhere else, and since it's a big, diverse state, perhaps we can work like dogs and do well.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 10:09:40 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  if a jagoff like Tom Price defeats Chambliss (0+ / 0-)

              the dems should pull a Lautenberg and get someone like Nunn as a decoy.

              RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

              by demographicarmageddon on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:14:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Nunn seems to be long-since done (0+ / 0-)

                What makes you think he'd decide to suddenly run again?

                Also, if he does, he'd be so rusty he could end up like Thompson in Wisconsin.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:24:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  well if the GDP wants to be taken seriously (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  then they need to make sure that they can finally elect a statewide official. He'd be probably the person most likely to win a senate seat in GA. I don't want a jerk like Price as senator and the dems need to do all they can to make sure he (Price) doesn't see the light of day as a senator.

                  RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

                  by demographicarmageddon on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:28:40 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Not sure we have a shot in GA right now (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, BeloitDem

              We have a high floor but a ceiling well under 50%

            •  Is Kasim Reed a good statewide candidate? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Is there a divide between Atlanta and the rest of the state, and would his race be a big issue?

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 09:54:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  IN-gay marriage (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY, James Allen

    So, Indiana is looking quite likely* to have a vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2014. I looked at Nate Silver's model to see when he thinks IN would vote against a marriage ban, and was disheartened to find out that he thinks it would vote for a marriage ban before 2015. I also figured that if anything, his model was overly optimistic, since it had Maine voting against a marriage ban in 2009, when of course it voted 53-47 against marriage that year.

    That being said, Silver also had Minnesota voting for a gay marriage ban before 2013, and we know how that one turned out. and IN's situation is closer to MN's in that it's a constitutional amendment. that being said, I don't think IN has the "50% of all ballots cast" rule that MN has, and voting in an off year could reduce youth turnout. Either way, it's probably safe to think we have a fighting chance. I'm interested to hear what our Hoosiers have to say.

    *what's up with this article anyhow? apparently ME and MD were the first states to legalize gay marriage by referendum - guess WA doesn't exist anymore?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 06:26:18 PM PST

    •  oh, and I should mention (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      this IN amendment would also ban other gay partnerships (civil unions etc). I'm not sure whether the MN one did, but that can be worth a lot of points to our side. Witness how in Arizona, an amendment that banned civil unions failed, but one that only banned marriage passed by double digits.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 06:27:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Minnesota is much bluer than Indiana as well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But it is certainly winnable for our side if things fall right.

      •  I disregard partisan affiliation to an extent (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        if that mattered, then the gay marriage ban would have done much worse in WI than AZ and SD. I think to whatever extent partisan affiliation does matter, it's covered in the variables that Nate Silver accounts for in his model. Although his model is not perfectly accurate, I think it's correct in a relative sense - IN should be slightly tougher than MN, but nowhere as bad as NC.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 09:46:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  North Carolina is different (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The white voters there tend to be very socially conservative on such issues, and black Democrats are far less likely to support it than white Democrats or even white independents. In Southern states where the Democratic vote is driven by the black vote, I don't see it with much chance at the moment. The better bet is going after markedly white states without large Mormon populations (like Minnesota)

  •  Speaking of Christmas (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, MetroGnome, MichaelNY, askew

    What are the odds on this site being fixed by then?

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Nov 23, 2012 at 09:19:32 PM PST

  •  Random realization (0+ / 0-)

    It's illegal to commit suicide in Singapore.

    More incentive to get it right the first time, I guess.

  •  Kirsten Gillbrand (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I just realized that Gillbrand came within 1000 votes of sweeping every county in New York this year, which is quite impressive. I wonder who the last politician to achieve a statewide sweep was?

  •  Selected CA presidential results by cong. district (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, GloFish, sacman701

    CA-25's total is only for the Los Angeles County portion.

    District Obama % Romney %
    25 49.86% 50.14%
    27 65.39% 34.61%
    28 73.80% 26.20%
    29 78.66% 21.34%
    30 65.85% 34.15%
    32 66.41% 33.57%
    33 61.40% 38.60%
    34 85.20% 14.77%
    37 86.92% 13.08%
    38 66.20% 33.80%
    39 46.43% 53.57%
    40 80.35% 19.65%
    43 78.83% 21.17%
    44 85.85% 14.15%
    47 61.47% 38.53%

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 11:38:18 AM PST

  •  Open Thread Question: What do CA Dems do (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    now that a 2/3rds majority is assured (29-11 in the State Senate, but 2/3rds will be guaranteed during the absences as well)? What should be first on the plate and what's the biggest thing they could and should do?

    Among the little things are probably stuff like remove the few Chairs Republicans hold (like on the Ag committee).

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:48:28 PM PST

  •  10-4 Democratic Michigan (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen

    New diary with a fairly solid 10-4 Democratic Michigan Gerrymand

    It's a shame that a state with as much Democratic potential as Michigan has a Republican trifecta. Even under a "fair" map, we could do a lot better than we have now.

  •  TX-23 Bexar (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, tietack, GloFish, DCCyclone

    What follows is my own analysis, and in no way reflects the thinking of anyone else.

    Now that Bexar County has precinct totals out...

    http://elections.bexar.org/...

    ... we can look at how Gallego did vis-a-vis the Presidential race.

    Obama pulled 39916 total votes in Bexar County's TX-23 portion, losing handily to Mitt Romney's 52918. The two independents, Johnson and Stein, got 866 and 235 each.

    In all party vote, that'd be this:

    Romney 56.33
    Obama 42.49
    Johnson .92
    Stein .25

    In two-party vote, we get this:

    Romney 57.00
    Obama 43.00

    This is in contradistinction to the Pete Gallego and Quico Canseco numbers, where the libertarian and green pulled a non-inconsequential share of the vote.

    Canseco got 46223 votes, almost 9000 less than Romney, whereas Gallego nearly tied Obama's performance at 39734. The Libertarian pulled 3058 votes and the Green 1258 votes.  

    That gives us these results:

    Canseco: 51.20
    Gallego: 44.02
    Blunt: 3.39
    Scharf: 1.39

    Three things generally regarded as fact lead me to my conclusion:

    First, minority and lower-income voters are disproportionately likely to undervote.

    Second, the libertarian's vote share was likely predominantly Canseco leaning but unwilling to vote for him after the "Jesus Mailer" and the green's vote share was likely predominantly Gallego leaning given Gallego's environmentally friendly endorsements.

    Third, the libertarian share alone is only about a third of the difference between Canseco's vote haul and Romney's.

    Those three things, combined, lead me to believe that Gallego pulled approximately 2000-3000 Romney voters in Bexar County alone, potentially making up a large share of his victory margin. Given the propensity of poor Hispanics to simply either vote straight ticket or just vote for President and leave the rest blank (leading to a normally substantially larger undervote for Democrats than for Republicans, which is not the case here), it stands to reason that much of Canseco's undervote was born from the crossover appeal of Gallego. After all, his undervote from Romney was so large that not even the libertarian is able to make up the difference.

    By the way, 57-43 two party share Romney-Obama is actually about the same as where it was in 2008, maybe even a tad bit better. I would not be surprised to see Obama do the same in the 23rd as he did in 2008 once I finish the whole district (which may or may not be able to include La Salle county's votes for President).

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

    by wwmiv on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:06:56 PM PST

    •  District Wide (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

      I'm not able to get precinct results for LaSalle county until Monday when the clerk's office is open, but the results will only be minimally changed from what they are now given that it is a tiny county (only 1634 votes total).

      Without La Salle county, Romney pulled 98830 votes to Obama's 93674. Johnson and Stein got 1777 and 542 each.

      Romney: 50.73%
      Obama: 48.08%
      Johnson: .91%
      Stein: .28%

      Romney: 51.34%
      Obama: 48.66%

      If you include all of La Salle county (even the two precincts not in the 23rd, because I can't isolate them) the results don't budge more than a tenth of a percent in Obama's favor. In other words, the district is in all party terms, 51-48 and in two party terms 51-49.

      That's not bad considering that it was a 50-50 district two party in 2008. Bush won the district 57-43 in 2004, and with that wild result being thrown out of the PVI, this district should easily move from being R+5 to about R+3.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:40:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Makes Gallego's win even more impressive. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        Did he have broader appeal in the rural areas that Rodriguez didn't?

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:30:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  ... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          Gallego's state house district was about half of the rural population between San Antonio and El Paso.

          And he's represented Uvalde, which was not in the 2002-2010 version of the map, previously.

          He even has an elementary school name after him in Eagle Pass.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:15:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Medina County (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          Take Medina, for instance, despite not being in Gallego's state house district ever, Medina went 69-30 for Romney, yet only 63-32 for Canseco. Gallego actually got more votes than Obama here, while Canseco got a few thousand fewer than Romney. The libertarian thrown in with Canseco still would not have gotten Canseco anywhere close to matching Romney's vote total.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

          by wwmiv on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:35:06 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Brewster is the best example (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            Brewster is the county that Pete was raised in (he's from the small town Alpine where Sul Ross state is located).

            Romney won Brewster 51-46 (~2000-1700 votes), yet Pete won 58-38 (~2200-1400 votes).

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:38:26 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ah, so yes, he dominated in that region (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, HoosierD42

              definitely a unique advantage.

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:44:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                The counties out there had massive swings from poor Obama performances, even as they relatively - like Xeno showed with a few of them, are overperformances from recent history - favored Pete by massive marginal differences.

                Winkler (only like two thousand total votes case), for instance, had Canseco get a few hundred less than Romney, but Gallego get a few hundred more than Obama.

                It was the case with all of these counties, because none of them are represented by a southwest Texan and have not been in generations (always someone from San Antonio, Bonilla, Rodriguez, Canseco, etc.).

                22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

                by wwmiv on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:53:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Smart Democratic Primary Voters. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

           It looks like Ciro Rodriguez probably would have lost to Canseco.

          http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

          by redrelic17 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 08:52:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  question about Nebraska (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    does anyone find it interesting how from 1977-2012, the state had at least one democratic senator? The state was going on the same trajectory as Kansas as they had two republican senators from 1943-1976.

    Roman Hruska and Carl Curtis (the last two republicans in NE) actually lived into their 90s. Would they have remained in office had they not retired? From what I recall, they both had a reputation as being lazy/incompetent senators and they both won by unconvincing margins in the early 70s which prompted them both to retire.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:10:11 PM PST

    •  They probably could have won (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      though Curtis would have had trouble against Jim Exon, the popular (and very conservative) Democratic governor who replaced him in the Senate.

      Hruska did win reelection in 1970 against another Democratic governor, Frank Morrison, after making his idiotic "mediocre people should a chance for a Supreme Court seat" speech.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 02:28:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Check this out from Sarah Pompei, Romney's (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, redrelic17, KingTag

    Deputy Director of Communications.  Check out all these hopeful anecdotal tweets on turnout:
    https://twitter.com/...

    So fun to read.  Also underlines the unreliability of relying on anecdotal evidence in Presidential voting patterns.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 05:31:35 PM PST

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