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Onto the blue team! I'm getting more confident!
Update(12-15-12)-
Changes-

Safe D
DE(Coons)- The Delaware's bench of republicans is almost non-existant now. I hope O'Donnell runs again just for comedic value.
MA(Kerry)- 9/9 Democrats in the US House, 2 Dem Senators, and a dem governor. Massachusetts is ocean blue. Scott Brown could win a governor election, but Kerry would beat him with his hands tied behind his back.
NM(T. Udall)- Tom Udall doesn't have a lot of opposition. Gary "Somalia" Johnson will probably run for president again in 2016 and Susana Martinez has been raising money for re-election as governor.
RI(Reed)- Rhode Island is so blue, even conservatives are becoming democrats there. Proof- http://www.rifuture.org/...
VA(Warner)- Warner will easily win. He is very popular and was elected to an open seat in a race that wasn't even close in one of the biggest battleground states of the Country.
Likely D
CO(M. Udall)- Mark Udall is an excellent Senator who has done a lot of great work in the Senate. I don't believe he will retire. But keep in mind, Colorado voted for Santorum in the republican primary, almost elected the guy who suggested bombing Mecca and Medina was a good idea, and almost elected the guy who refused to prosecute a rape case, Ken Buck. Colorado has a lot of crazy republicans, but not a lot who could beat Udall, who is very well respected in his state. Polling has shown most potential challengers trailing Udall by a lot of points except for former Gov. Bill Owens, who only trails by 4(47-43). But he's been very damaged after his affair problems, apparently.
IL(Durbin)- If Durbin retires, this seat is only likely D. But only if he retires. I'd say we nominate Rahm Emanuel, Jan Schakowsky, or Tammy Duckworth in that situation.
IA(Harkin)- Harkin is a popular incumbent, but he could retire and even if he doesn't, Tom Latham trails him only by three points(45-42), and Iowa is a pure swing state. This is going to be a competitive one. The reason this is likely and not lean, however, is because I suspect that A- Latham's seat will go democratic if he retires, and B- Steve King would probably defeat Latham in the GOP primary.
MI(Levin)- If he retires, this will be very interesting. Michigan has been trending red, but I say a democratic sweep of Michigan is also possible in 2014.
MN(Franken)- Franken will be okay against most challengers, but Coleman is a concern. Hopefully he doesn't run. If he does, this will go to lean D.
Update(12/15/12)- Still think Franken is going to be okay.
NH(Shaheen)- Shaheen may face a serious republican challenger, but she should be able to win. Former Senators Gregg and Sununu would be problems.
NJ(Lautenberg)- There is a 99 percent chance that Lautenberg will retire. Cory Booker would be a fabulous candidate. Another one is Rush Holt. He is a strong progressive who will fight for the 99 percent. NJ goes both ways in most races, but in Senate races, the've trended democrat for a long time.
OR(Merkley)- His approval ratings are awful, but the Republican's bench in Oregon is thinner than a strand of hair.
Update(12/15/12)- Only two challengers would be a threat to Merkley. Rep. Greg Walden and former Sen. Gordon Smith, who Merkley unseated in 2008. Well, Greg Walden is the chair of the NRCC now, so he's not going to run. That leaves Mr. Smith. Will he run or will he not? That is the question.
Leans D-
MT(Baucus)- I think we would be better off if Baucus lost the primary to Schweitzer. Schweitzer is much more popular in the state. If Baucus doesn't lose the primary though, he would beat most challengers, but if popular former Gov. Marc Racicot entered the race, it would probably be over for Baucus. Schweitzer has slightly better odds. However, Racicot hasn't been around much lately and in a year where he could have given the GOP a big helping hand by running against Jon Tester, he decided not to, so that's why I put this at Likely instead of Lean.
Update(12/15/12)- Scratch! Max Baucus is in deep trouble, and I don't think Schweitzer is running. But as a 7 term incumbent, he probably has an edge.
NC(Hagan)- Me being from this state, I can tell you it's not as red as you think. If Obama can win this state in 2008 and come close to winning it in 2012, Hagan probably has a slight edge here. The GOP bench in NC has a lot of candidates, fortunately for us, not a lot of them have substance. But the one's that do could easily beat Hagan. This is one to watch for sure.
Update(12/15/12)- I am crossing my fingers that Foxx runs and the GOP nominates her.
Toss-Up
AR(Pryor)- He is very popular, but Arkansas has been trending Red and a challenge from newly elected Tom Cotton(AR-4) or 3rd district congressman Steve Womack(AR-3) could prove to be his undoing.
Update(12/15/12)- I am concerned about Pryor, but I am not ready to give up on him yet until I see polls.
LA(Landrieu)- Louisiana is, like other southern states, heavily republican, but from what I've heard Mary Landrieu is very popular. The GOP's #1 Bobby Jindal, has denied interest in running, so I think she'll be okay.
Update(12/15/12)- Please excuse my initial exuberance about Landrieu. Louisiana is very republican now, and Bill Cassidy may be a threat. But if he gets teabagged by John Fleming(the guy who uploaded the onion story to facebook and thought it was real), then Landrieu may have a chance.
SD(T. Johnson)- If Johnson doesn't retire, this will be impossible to call between him and former gov. Rounds. It will be back and forth and back and forth and back and forth. If he does retire, this will lean GOP
WV(Rockefeller)- In order to be a dem and get elected in WV, you have to be a blue dog dino. Rockefeller is pretty liberal and has not tried to distance himself from Obama. And if you ask "Why was he elected so many times before?" Because Obama wasn't president! Rockefeller lived through 2 Republican presidents and 1 democrat(B. Clinton). Bill Clinton won West Virginia both times. Obama lost both times! Rockefeller supports many of the things Obama does! Shelley Moore-Capito leads him by 4 points and will probably run this time. It looks like the Rockefeller dynasty has collapsed.
Update(12/15/12)- Bad news, Capito is finally running. Good news, the GOP might screw in the primary again. I'm a little more hopeful now.
Leans GOP
AK(Begich)- Unfortunately, even Crazy Joe Miller could probably beat Begich very easily. Begich's approval ratings are in the cellar, which will only make this harder for him. And he pretty much only won in 2008 due to Ted Steven's corruption. Alaska has a habit of electing nutjobs(yes I'm looking at you Sarah Palin!)
Update(12/15/12)- Well, I'm thinking that Joe Miller will be the nominee, because Treadwell just seems too moderate to be nominated. When I see polling numbers, this may be easier to call.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Where did you see Begich's low approvals? (9+ / 0-)

    The last time PPP went there he had 58% approve.

  •  If Durbin retires, a big NO to Rahm in his place. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    majcmb1, 2laneIA, MrAnon

    Schakowsky would be good.   So would Sheila Simon or Lisa Madigan.

  •  this analysis runs contrary to others' (8+ / 0-)

    analyses on several fronts, particularly Sen. Begich and Sen. Rockefeller. Begich and his family have a long history in the state and, by all accounts, has a chance of holding on to this seat, especially if the Republicans can't come up with a top-tier candidate.

    While Rockefeller's been around a while, he was a very popular governor and, to the best of my understanding, an ally of the late Sen. Robert Byrd. If he doesn't retire, my instincts tell me that Rockefeller should be favored. Unlike many (or most) Democrats running in red states, Rockefeller has a long history of being a populist, protecting average citizens from wealthy bullies. Should he retire, that would be a different story, depending on who the Democrats nominate.

    On the other hand, you may be underestimating exactly how conservative Louisiana's gotten. Landrieu will likely have a tough race against any number of potential Republican challengers, though she may have a slight edge.

    •  I know WV seems strange but (0+ / 0-)

      Populist sadly doesn't change the fact that the rich greedy conservative republicans(and democrats who aren't really democrats but say theya re) in the state will want him out and replace him with someone conservative like Moore Capito. In today's situation, he will not be okay, which is quite unfortunate, considering he's one of the few gutsy democrats in the south.
      As for Begich, again, Alaska is strongly republican, conservative, and Begich will lose. I'm telling you, he won because of Ted stevens corruption. They didn't "elect" him, they voted out Stevens. He will probably not have that same luck this time. In a state where McCain won by a 21.7 percent margin, and Romney won by 14 something, this is not a purple state. It's becoming that way, but in 2014, I feel it won't be purple enough to re-elect Begich.
      And in Landrieu's case, you'll be surprised at how many democrats live in Louisiana. Conservadems have faired very well in Louisiana, and probably better than in some other southern states. She is also very popular and I have heard many DK bloggers talk about how respected she is in her state. She is also more conservative than both Begich and Rockefeller combined, which will put her over the top imo. Bill Cassidy, her likely challenger, looks like a competitor, but I think Landrieu will squeak by once more.

  •  I wanted to ask the diarist, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    why are you terrified?

    There is no such thing as an off year election. Every election effects each other. We need to work as hard in 2014 as we did in 2012.

    by pollbuster on Thu Nov 22, 2012 at 08:28:22 PM PST

  •  Iowa (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, 2laneIA

    There's another scenario that's starting to trouble Ds:  Christie Vilsack, having lost the IA-4 race to Steve King, eyes Harkin's seat, leaving Bruce Braley (IA-1), presumptive heir to the seat, with the tough choice of a nasty primary or stepping aside.  Either way, the Party is split, Christie loses and one or more Congressional races are weakened enough by infighting to lose as well.  And we fail to re-take the Governor's office.

    Latham is not running for Senate, but his House seat is a toss-up if he leaves it.  King running for Senate is a swell idea, and he has sent up some trial balloons, tho I think it's unlikely.  If he does run for Senate, the clearest path for Christie is not a re-match with King, but her running again for the IA-4 congressional seat.  I just don't see King being willing to spend enough time in Iowa to make a real run at the Senate.

    •  If Christie Vilsack runs for the Senate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chi, pistolSO

      after the inept campaign she ran for the house, I will not support her over Bruce Braley.  Personally I don't think Tom will retire in 2014.  He seems to be having fun running the HELP Committee, and he's been raising money.  I think he will wait for the next Presidential and give Braley a better shot with the possibility of Democratic coattails.

      •  What am I not seeing? (0+ / 0-)

        I'm curious what you thought was inept? I looked at the numbers for some of the cities and counties that I know in the district and didn't see anything particularly out of whack compared to numbers for pres or legislature.  Even tho we picked up seats in both chambers, the 4th looks redder than ever, except for returning folks in the bigger towns.  We lost John Wittneben in the north, and other than Dan Muhlbauer, it's pretty slim in the rural areas. Well, and Sioux City was disappointing, but not altogether surprising.

        •  She had consultants from the East Coast (0+ / 0-)

          who apparently told her not to take a position on anything, campaign on a lot of lame platitudes, and provide evasive answers to questions on social insurance programs and the prospect of the grand bargain. She relied on paid media, and as far as I know did not do the kind of interviews Obama did in 2007, when he stopped at every little local paper and talked to them. She had a pretty good field guy late in the campaign in the northern part of the state. Credo did a lot of door-knocking for her.  But it did not seem to be a grassroots campaign.  This is one of the reasons Clinton lost in 2008.

          I knocked on a lot of doors for her, but I was not surprised at the loss.

  •  Why are Merkely's ratings... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shahryar

    ...so bad? Wasn't he one of the DKos champions when he ran, or was it the other guy?

  •  Dear knees-knockin' librul: change your handle. (0+ / 0-)

    Please.

    I haven't read either of your diaries. I think you are a concern troll.

    Have a day of your knees-knockin' preference.

    •  ?? (0+ / 0-)

      No sir, I am not a concern troll, I am however concerned about the future of this country and care about the progressive movement just as much as the next DK blogger. And second of all, if you haven't even read my diaries, than how can you judge me?

  •  Very Negative--old style thinking (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chi

    The problem with Progressives is that they are stuck in the past. And your analyses often run that way. The very strong trend in this election--despite the massive gerrymandering--was toward progressive financial positions.

    Strong and interesting candidates need to  be working right now on these positions. Every time a vote comes up an ad needs to go out pointing out what the effect of those votes are on average folks in Arkansas and West Virginia.

    "Occupy" may not still be in tents, but they have changed the psychology of the nation. It's time to think differently.

    Ashley Judd? George Clooney? Strong business leaders! Out-of-the-box candidates NOW not in a year.

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