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Hello fellow Kossacks and true progressives (I mean this with emphasis),

A number of you have paid attention to my reporting of the recent race in California's 49th Congressional District between Rep. Darrell "Darth Vader" Issa and Democratic candidate Jerry Tetalman.  It is also evident that Jerry Tetalman did not win the election and had an uphill battle to unseat Issa.

However, one thing no one is reporting about is how many votes Jerry Tetalman has received since he lost the election.  Mind you, neither any of these new votes have changed the outcome of the election nor are they going to make a difference.

What new votes mean for Jerry Tetalman is an indication of a trend that's happening, a movement within California's 49th District that hasn't happened before since Darrell Issa has held his Congressional seat since first being elected.  No longer is Riverside County safely conservative or Republican.  No longer is the 49th District Safe Republican.  In fact, it's becoming more Democratic and Independent and will only continue to increase in the years to come.

What does this mean for voters in the 49th District of California?  

Well, the same thing that is happening in Paul Ryan's own Congressional District, which Rob Zerban recently ran in (and did a marvelous campaign without any real donations coming from the DCCC) and lost.  

The same thing that is happening in Steve King's own Congressional District, which Christine Vilsack recently ran and lost (even with significant support from former President Bill Clinton and DCCC support).  

The same thing that is happening in Eric Cantor's own Congressional District, which Wayne Powell recently ran a campaign in and lost (without DCCC support).  

The same thing that is happening in Michelle Bachmann's own Congressional District, which Jim Graves ran an outstanding campaign and had DCCC support (I believe) and almost won but lost.

One thing none of you on Kos know about Jerry Tetalman and his race in California's 49th Congressional District.  He ran his uphill battle against Darrell Issa in the 49th District for over a year without any support from ANY credible or active Democratic or progressive grassroots groups outside of San Diego, the 49th District or even California's Democratic Party.  In fact, Tetalman's campaign wasn't getting as much traction until recently after I started posting diaries on Daily Kos about Tetalman and his candidacy.  

Tetalman's near 42% win isn't any fluke.  It was achieved by a campaign with significantly less funds than any of the above Democratic candidates I mentioned.  Think of what Tetalman's campaign would have been like if the DCCC had balls and contributed to his race.  On top of this, Jerry Tetalman is more progressive than any of the above candidates and has been a straight shooter in just about every single litmus test question I've asked about him that progressive Democrats and even disillusioned Democrats want in a Democratic leader in Congress.

Here's my previous diary on the election results in California's 49th Congressional District, along with my statement and vote tally per Huffington Post's election results section:

Below are the voting results per Huffington Post's election dashboard.  Notice how many votes Jerry Tetalman received, considering the 49th Congressional District leans conservative.

100% reporting

Darrell Issa (R)

Votes:  118,554

Percentage of Votes:  58.9%

Jerry Tetalman (D)

Votes:  82,562

Percentage of Votes:  41.1%

This was November 8th, just a couple of days after the election, after Jerry Tetalman lost.  However, it is now November 24th and now additional information is available per Huffington Post's election results section:

100% reporting
CANDIDATE            VOTES    PCT.
✓ Darrell Issa I    139,127    58.8%
 Jerry Tetalman    97,454    41.2%
Note that while the vote margin has increased in Darrell Issa's favor, the percentage of votes has barely even changed.  In fact, the percentage has only gone down 0.01% for Issa and increased 0.01% for Tetalman.  

Tetalman also now has an increase of 14,892 votes which now means his tally is 97,454.

Not bad for a candidate who ran with no support aside from individual donations from people not even associated with a number of Democratic organizations.

What does this say about the future?  Well, not only does it mean California is becoming more blue by the year, it has potential of becoming either Maine or Rhode Island in blue territory by 2020.  Keep in mind this is a very bold statement I'm making and I might be proven wrong.

However, as we've seen with the election results, more than three gains for the Democrats in the House of Representatives have been made in the recent elections.  Less than five incumbent Republican Congressman have had challengers whose percentage wins in their respective races have been less than 40%.

So while Jerry Tetalman's win is only 41% of the total votes, 97,454 votes is not that much less than the population of Berkeley, which according to the July 2011 Census, is 113,905.  We know of course Markos is based in Berkeley but that's besides the point.

The point is, Darrell Issa is vulnerable and neither the DCCC, the DNC, enough people on Daily Kos or even Democracy for America are even aware of what's going on in the 49th District of California.  Yes, this district leans conservative but that means "Leans Conservative."  Furthermore, there is no way in hell Darrell Issa is going to get back his own district into being a red district.  It's going to be purple most likely by 2016 and maybe even more Democratic than that afterwards.

Who do we have to thank for this?  Jerry Tetalman.

Tetalman has run probably the most unique race for Congress this year because his ideas are more bold than pretty much any Democrat running for Congress.  Not only that, he's a practical, non-ideological Democrat who happens to be one of the strongest progressives out there.  People ALL across the country donated to Jerry Tetalman's campaign, both because Darrell Issa is very divisive and also because of Tetalman's vision.  In fact, I will go so far as to say this...

If you don't think Barack Obama is progressive enough, Jerry Tetalman's your guy.

Anyway, the race is over but the movement isn't.  Two things that are happening as you are reading this diary:

1)  Jerry Tetalman is obviously taking a break from the election and going back to his regular private business, which he's been working for some time.  Of course he needs a break.

However, it's very likely Tetalman will run again although it's a matter of when.  In fact, Tetalman's vision is so bold, it will be basically going further than even what Obama might propose and is even just as practical, if not more practical of a vision than what Obama is offering to the American public.  For the Democratic Party not to listen to Tetalman's ideas would be a shame.

2)  A fellow Kos member and I are going to slowly but surely continue the movement that Tetalman has started but take it to the next level.  We call this movement the movement where Democrats are known as the "Knowledge Democrats."  This means that whenever you are a Democrat, you are not divisive, not ideological, not partisan but practical.  You are also a true progressive, no Joseph Lieberman, Zell Miller or Artur Davis but one who believes progressive views are also quite possible and real in application to the real world.  An example (per Jerry Tetalman):

Peace is no longer a vision in a vacuum or wishful-thinking:  It's practical now and more and more groups around the world are working at peace conferences to try to end violence and war once and for all.  Jerry Tetalman can point this out because he's been at a lot of such peace conferences, has met Desmond Tutu and others and has more foreign policy and peace credentials than even Dennis Kucinich or most Green Party Presidential Candidates.  In fact, Tetalman himself used to be a member of the Green Party but that's an entirely different story.

Anyhow, I invite you all to share your ideas and thoughts.

In the meantime, here are some videos of Jerry Tetalman to give you an idea of the kind of movement and politics I believe in:

8:59 PM PT: Hey guys, I'm back from a Thanksgiving trip in Carmel.  It was awesome.  Now I'm finally able to read comments.  Thank you for the feedback.


What do you believe defines "being progressive?"

3%3 votes
6%6 votes
52%47 votes
19%17 votes
17%16 votes
0%0 votes

| 89 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Thanks for the update. Where does Issa live? n/t (6+ / 0-)

    I dreamed I saw Joe Hill last night, alive as you and me.

    by plankbob on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 12:47:55 PM PST

    •  Vista, CA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      elwior, George3

      A suburban city in northern San Diego County.

      "Okay, until next time. Keep sending me your questions, and I will make fun of you... I mean, answer them." - Strong Bad

      by AaronInSanDiego on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 12:58:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thank goodness he no longer lives here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      George3, blugrlnrdst

      in Cleveland Heights, Ohio, where he went to high school (but dropped out because he couldn't hack it). On the other hand, he'd probably melt into a little grease spot of rage and frustration if he did because Cleveland Heights went 85-15 for Obama and Obama won every single precinct.

      Jon Husted is a dick.

      by anastasia p on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 04:48:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  FYI, Jerry Tetalman and Issa are both from Ohio (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Jerry Tetalman and Darrell Issa grew up in roughly the same area or nearby.  I know this because Tetalman himself told me so and I interviewed him earlier last month for a Kos diary.

        So it's safe to say, Tetalman has midwest values but he's also very aware of all the happenings in the 49th district.  He's lived in Carlsbad since the late 1970's.

  •  I'm all in. (12+ / 0-)

    I think you did a great job, pipsorcle. I'm in the 49th and Tetalman is a good candidate and I think this really could be Issa's last term. I hope Tetalman makes an earlier start next time, earlier appeals for money, and he'll have a good chance.

    Let all Bush tax cuts expire and , bring on the Sequestration cuts to defense.

    by kck on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 12:56:45 PM PST

    •  We need to demand that the Dem Party and the (7+ / 0-)

      DCCC, DSCC, develop a killer instinct (politically speaking) and start visualizing the end of Issa, Cantor, Bachmann, Boehner, King, Peter King, McConnell, etc. as gop officeholders.

      You can't make this stuff up.

      by David54 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:42:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe instead a killer progressive super pac... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David54, Odysseus, blugrlnrdst, suesue

        Let all Bush tax cuts expire and , bring on the Sequestration cuts to defense.

        by kck on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 05:00:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Dems need to cut the head off the snake, by going (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Pam from Calif, akze29

        after the Issas, Bachmanns, Cantors, and Kings (both of 'em) in the Republican party.  The next congress will be much improved without Walsh and West, imagine how great it would have been to get rid of the right's other ideologues!  

        And by Dems I mean the DCCC, House Majority PAC, and other large donors.  I know that their reasoning is to triage races and chip in when there is a real chance of victory.  But what if the big money came in early and gave the dem challenger leg up with some seed money?  What about creating a competitive race instead of waiting to see if one develops, and then throwing in the support?  Especially in the Bachmann-Graves race, could earlier money and support have made a difference?

    •  I really appreciate (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kck, Odysseus, akze29

      guys like this and Wayne Powell (who I made several donations to) and Rob Zerban, and in 2010, Justin Coussoule who challenged John Boehner in Ohio, for taking on these races against these kingpin Republicans, races no one thinks they can win, and for which they get little institutional support. It's great to keep their feet to the fire and who know — a surprising upset could happen one of these days.

      Jon Husted is a dick.

      by anastasia p on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 04:45:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I like this diary. (8+ / 0-)

    Tetalman did not "fail."  Neither did the other Dem candidates. Every time Dems run such a good candidate against thugslime like Issa, we gain, not lose value.  

    I am really not liking that this guy got no support, especially in light of how well he did.

    I used to be Snow White. And then I drifted. - Mae West

    by CherryTheTart on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:05:17 PM PST

  •  why not use actual *sources* (5+ / 0-)

    Really, a link to the Huffington Post? Why use the snapshot they happen to displaying at the moment?

    Especially when you can scroll to the bottom of the page and see that it was last updated on Nov 19, five days ago. And there's no reason to believe that the Tatelman-Issa numbers were updated even that recently ... it could have been any of the hundreds of races in that report that prompted the update.

    Instead, go to the only meaningful information source -- the California Secretary of State. Where you'll find that the numbers are accurate as of 5:13pm on Wednesday, Nov 21 (the day before Thanksgiving). Where you'll find that the total votes tallied is more than 11% greater than what you report (27,042 added votes). Where you'll find that your point is even more strongly supported, since the percentages now read 58.4% to 41.6%.

    I don't mean to pick on you. It just mystifies me that so few people take the easy-as-pie step of googling something like "[state name] elections" and then click on that state's official tallies. It took me far, far longer to do the subtractions and divisions in the previous paragraph than to locate the most up-to-date results from CA-49.

    Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. -- K.Marx A.Lincoln

    by N in Seattle on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:29:08 PM PST

    •  Just got back from Thanksgiving (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      N in Seattle, akze29, linkage

      No need to be picky and go at length in the argument the way you did.  All you need to do is just point me in the right direction of the CA Secretary of State's website.  

      The point being is that I'm a part-time MBA student in San Francisco and I work in the IT industry in the Bay Area as a business analyst so my schedule is pretty busy.  I just don't have as much time as other Kossacks on here do.

      That being said, I will look into the CA SOS site and post the final numbers, either on this diary or in a new diary.

  •  We did get rid of Bilbray, Lungren, and Bono-Mack (6+ / 0-)

    this time around, which not long ago would have seemed impossible.
      This state is moving in the right direction, and a guy like Issa could (and should) be taken down the next time around.

    "We the People of the United States...." -U.S. Constitution

    by elwior on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:45:16 PM PST

  •  PS. why bring up Riverside County? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elwior, Seneca Doane, wu ming, Minerva, madhaus

    From the diary:

    No longer is Riverside County safely conservative or Republican.  No longer is the 49th District Safe Republican.  In fact, it's becoming more Democratic and Independent and will only continue to increase in the years to come.
    What does Riverside County have to do with Tetalman and Issa? The 49th District covers pieces of Orange and San Diego Counties. Not a single Riverside County precinct.

    Looking at the by-county results, I'd suggest that the most recent tallies have come almost entirely from San Diego County. Tetalman did much better there than in Orange County.

    Because Orange indicates that they have completed their count (PDF), I suspect that Tetalman's percentage may improve a wee bit more. San Diego County still has about 82,000 uncounted ballots, and CA-49 has 17.4% of the county's population. That suggests there might be about 15,000 CA-49 votes left to be counted. Tetalman may end up at 41.7 or 41.8%.

    Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. -- K.Marx A.Lincoln

    by N in Seattle on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:52:28 PM PST

    •  Riverside County used to be more conservative (0+ / 0-)

      The point being is that Darrell Issa's district used to include more of Riverside County.  Now it doesn't anymore.  That in turn has made the 49th District of California less conservative than it used to be.

      Also another point worth mentioning, Riverside County is now trending more Democratic.  Obama won more votes over Romney in the area.

    •  I think there are parts of Temecula within (0+ / 0-)

      the 49th district, and that is tea bag country without a doubt.

      •  you're thinking of the old CA-49 (0+ / 0-)

        Temecula is now in CA-50, with CA-42 possibly taking some of its northern portions. The closest CA-49 gets to Temecula is about 8-10 miles distance, near Rancho Santa Rosa.

        Here's a CA-49 map. You can click buttons to alternately view the old and new boundaries.

        The new 49th is much more coastal than the old one, taking in the beaches and bluffs from Dana Point to La Jolla. Only about 44% of the population of the old 49th is in the new CA-49.

        Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration. -- K.Marx A.Lincoln

        by N in Seattle on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 02:21:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Still some of Temecula remains (0+ / 0-)

          as well as all of Fallbrook, the home of the Aryan nation. Sure there is a part of coastal O.C. in the district now, but don't fool yourself into thinking they are anything like Laguna Beach. I lived for many years in Dana Point and San Clemente, and there are lots and lots of rich Republicans living there, that would love to be able to  vote for another rich Republican. It would not be a walk in the park for a Democrat to win, it can be done, but it will not be easy.

  •  $ for Oppo -BRICK-Bachmann-Ryan-Issa-Cantor-King (5+ / 0-)

    we should for a funding mechanism to fund oppo research on Michele Bachmann, Paul Ryan, Derryll Issa, Eric Cantor, Steve King

    80 % of Success is Just Showing Up !

    by Churchill on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 01:59:21 PM PST

    •  Funding (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Minerva, Odysseus, Churchill

      and active work in these districts together can beat any of these clowns.

      I have yet to figure out why the campaigning waits to begin later in the cycle.
      All these figures can be worked on 24/7/365.

      It's a weak point in our party that we wait until the 6 months to ramp up the pressure on the opposition.

      Enagaged activism wins elections. 100 million words on liberal/progressive websites gets beat by one new GOP voter casting their vote.

      by Nebraska68847Dem on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 05:01:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks and encouragement (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elwior, wu ming, Ckntfld, madhaus

    I'm here in the seventh district where Ami Bera just knocked off Dan Lungren on the second go around.  Though it's grass roots support like yours that makes the difference, both runs Bera had significant financial aid from the party. Pressuring the DCCC/DNC to financially support longshot candidates who may not make it the the first time, but will build name recognition for stronger challenges in 2014, 2016 should be a key part of Democratic party strategy.  Your work is important! Keep it up!

  •  demographics is what we should be thanking (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and demographics is what will eventually flip the suburban and exurban socal seats, by and by. thanks to tetalman for running the race and all, but the big story is happening all over CA, regardless of who runs.

    (see also hernandez in CA-21, who barely ran at all, and still walked away with about 42%)

    we need to have candidates working to build up their organization in every GOP-held district in CA, to be prepared to take advantage of this shift and any other unforseen events down the line. tetalman, like reed in CA-01, might eventually catch a break.

  •  I'm in the 49th (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Minerva, Odysseus, madhaus

    and was redistricted to Issa's district from Ken Calvert's this time.  I wasn't aware of that until I voted!  I always put in my hopeless vote for the Democrat, and I'm delighted that Tetalman did so well.  Next time I'll try to get involved earlier, maybe it will make a difference.

  •  Congratulations on running a good campaign and (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    "overperforming" vis a vis beltway cw.

    There are some establishment players in the Dem Party who need to move over and make room for some people who will fight harder.

    You can't make this stuff up.

    by David54 on Sat Nov 24, 2012 at 03:29:37 PM PST

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