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Detroit Area:

This map is basically an improvement off a old map I drew here, and more or less represents about the strongest gerrymander I think we could get under a Democratic trifecta. I decided to ignore the county splits thing for this version since that's only statutory and easy to get around. Of course, we're unlikely to get a Democratic trifecta in the next decade and would be better off trying to get an independent redistricting commission via ballot initiative, but the map shows what a huge difference there is between the 10 seat's we'd have under a Democratic triefecta and the 5 seats we have under the current Republican one and what it's costing us in the house. 10-4 describes what I think would happen if the map was enacted now. In the long term, it would have 3 Republican vote sinks, 8 seats that are more or less safe for Democrats, and 3 seats that range from tossup to lean D. The 2006 average numbers correspond to a 5 point Republican win statewide, which is a ridiculously pessimistic scenario (as the state is D+4) and probably the absolute floor for Democrats in federal races. Details below the fold.



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District 1 (Blue, Dan Benishek):
2008: 52.0% Obama, 46.3% McCain
2006: 47.6% Dem, 52.4% Rep

I tacked on a bunch of Dem leaning or light red coastal stuff on both Lake Michigan and Lake Huron to the UP district, most notably Traverse City, Bay City, and Manistee. Obama didn't really overperform much in in UP in 2008, so this district should be solidly lean Dem. Benishek would have lost this district this year and possibly in 2010 as well.

District 2 (Green, Dave Camp):
2008: 47.5% Obama, 50.8% McCain
2006: 40.3% Dem, 59.6% Rep

Northern Michigan Republican vote sink. The district's shape is pretty much completely determined by where the Democratic districts need to go. Dave Camp lives here and would own this district.

District 3 (Purple, OPEN):
2008: 58.3% Obama, 40.1% McCain
2006: 46.3% Dem, 53.7% Rep

This is a New Democratic seat. I more or less surgically liberated Grand Rapids from the rest of Kent County and attached it Muskegon and the most Democratic rural areas and small towns I could find. Obama won the resulting district by 18 points, more than his statewide average, however the 2006 average has the Republicans winning by 7.4, better for Republicans than state wide. However, realistically, this seat is probably D+5 or 6, and should be relatively safe for any Democrat assuming minority turnout doesn't suck in Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

District 4 (Red, Justin Amash, Bill Huizenga):
2008: 39.7% Obama, 58.6% McCain
2006: 70.0% Dem, 30.0% Rep

Monster Republican vote sink encompassing suburban Kent County and the Dutch Coast. Would probably feature an epic primary between Justin Amash and Bill Huizenga.

District 5 (Yellow, Fred Upton):
2008: 55.0% Obama, 43.4% McCain
2006: 46.2% Dem, 53.8% Rep

Fred Upton should have this southwest Michigan district locked down, but when he retires or is primaried, it's no worse than a tossup and probably slightly Dem leaning. I swapped out the very conservative Allegan County for Calhoun county, home of Battle Creek. Mark Schauer could run here if he wanted.

District 6 (Teal, Dan Kidlee):
2008: 59.5% Obama, 38.9% McCain
2006: 51.3% Dem, 48.7% Rep

I use the Flint district to sop up all the Republican voters in Livingston county. It drops Bay city to the 1st, but keeps Saginaw. Mike Rogers lives here, but would be a fool to run here. Safe Democrat.

District 7 (Grey, OPEN):
2008: 57.4% Obama, 40.9% McCain
2006: 47.0% Dem, 53.0% Rep

What a difference attaching the Lansing district to Jackson instead of Livingston County makes! While he doesn't live here, most of Mike Roger's constituents are here and this is the only place it makes any real sense for him to run. However, while it's dangerous to county any incumbent out, he'd probably lose. The district is pretty close to the statewide average in both years, so it's probably about D+4. Gretchen Whitmer would beat Rogers in a pinch, however any competent Dem would probably be favored. If Mike Rogers did hang on, this seat would go Dem when he retired.

District 8 (Slate Blue):
2008: 60.2% Obama, 38.2% McCain
2006: 51.3% Dem, 48.7% Rep
It's not so much a question of whether Tim Walberg would lose but to which Washentaw county Dem, now that this district contains the whole county, including An Arbor and Ypsilanti. Ann Arbor state Senator Rebekah Warren is probably a good bet. Watching Walberg go down in flames would be hilarious to watch.

District 9 (Cyan, Cadince Miller):
2008: 44.6% Obama, 53.6% McCain
2006: 35.9% Dem, 64.1% Rep

Cadince Miller's thumb districk sops up all the Republican stuff in Northern Oakland and Macomb County to make a very effective Republican vote sink. Also, Kerry Bentivolio lives here and if he didn't try to primary Miller that'd be a crime against comedy.

District 10 (Pink, Gary Peters):
2008: 55.5% Obama, 43.0% McCain
2006: 45.2% Dem, 54.8% Rep

Gary Peters lives here and I'd be somewhat annoyed if he didn't run here, considering that I made Dingell and Levin's districts a bit less Democratic to strengthen this district. This district's partisanship is a pretty much exactly the D+2 his 2008-2010 district was, and he won that district in 2010. Peters would have this district on lockdown, and while Republicans might have a shot if he retired, it still leans Dem.

District 11 (Chartreuse, Sandy Levin):
2008: 57.1% Obama, 40.9% McCain
2006: 49.1% Dem, 50.1% Rep

This district stretches out to take in Democratic Port Huron, and while it goes through some pretty conservative turf to do so, it's partisanship is pretty similar to the district I drew a year ago, since I took out the conservative Northern Macomb county areas that were in that district. On the other end, it loses some southern Oakland county turf to Peters and Dingell. Should be relatively safe even when Levin Retires.

District 12 (Cornflower Blue, OPEN):
2008: 79.5% Obama, 19.5% McCain
2006: 69.8% Dem, 30.2% Rep
50.0% Black VAP

Eastern Detroit black VRA district. Hasen Clarke could run here, as could Gary Peters if he really didn't feel like a team player and thought he could survive the primary. However, I'd imagine that a lot of ambitious Detroit Politicians would jump on this.

District 12 (Salmon, John Conyers):
2008: 77.1% Obama, 21.8% McCain
2006: 67.4% Dem, 32.6% Rep
50.0% Black VAP

Black VRA district for John Conyers. Nothing to see here, move along.

District 14 (Goldenrod, John DIngell):
2008: 59.6% Obama, 38.9% McCain
2006: 49.3% Dem, 50.7% Rep

Well, it's messy and required looping most of the way around John Conyers' district from Dearborn to southern Oakland County, but I kept all the Democratic districts in the Detroit Metro intact. This district is probably D+6 or 7 and should be safe even when Dingle retires.

Poll

Would Mike Rogers hold on in the new MI-7?

14%4 votes
14%4 votes
70%19 votes

| 27 votes | Vote | Results

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