Democrats just won the White House (again), expanded our majority in the Senate, and by most accounts, even received the most votes for House representation (gerrymandering, it appears, denied us our House majority). So why do I have an awful feeling that our elected Democratic officials are about to screw us?
During last year's debt limit negotiations, I was personally offended that President Obama described Republican hostage negotiations as an "opportunity." Rather than letting the American people know exactly what was happening--Republicans were threatening to throw us into an economic depression on purpose if they didn't get their way--the President confused voters by treating Republicans as reasonable persons who were honestly concerned about our long-term debt. (Let's be clear. Despite their rhetoric to the contrary, Republicans do not care about deficits and/or debt.)
To his credit, Obama has now stood up at least twice since the election to insist that the House pass extensions of the Bush tax cuts for families with annual incomes below $250,000. He argued that House Republicans should pass the legislation that we agree on now, and let's talk about the stuff that we don't agree on later. I wish he had stopped there.
Unfortunately however, to his discredit, Obama has confused the issue again by agreeing to simultaneously negotiate a so-called grand bargain. Now people are watching CNN and seeing Lindsey Graham and Peter King and Saxby Chambliss say that, although they're not willing to raise rates, they are willing to cap deductions. Of course doing so would not come close to raising the $800 billion that allowing tax cuts to expire for upper income households would generate, but most CNN viewers don't know that. Such an approach would also make it more difficult to raise rates in the future while maintaining the ability to undermine such a cap without anybody noticing. Low-information voters only hear that Republicans are willing to compromise and, I suspect, are likely to be confused about who to blame if and when we go over the fiscal cliff/curb.
On the other hand, what if Democrats and Republicans come to an agreement before the end of the year? I've heard numerous Democratic leaders pledge to protect Social Security in such negotiations. That's great, of course, but the scary part is that their silence on Medicare benefits is deafening. I'm quite certain that nobody voted for Democrats because they wanted them to agree to raise the Medicare retirement age, but it seems clear that doing so is on the table. Of course, we should organize, call, and write to prevent such an agreement.
However, what if a grand bargain is reached with entitlement benefit cuts of some sort? Worse yet, what if it also caps deductions instead of raising rates on upper income taxpayers? How does the progressive community move forward? Specifically, would such a grand bargain inspire us to work harder to elect more progressives in 2014 and work long-term to undue the damage? Or would it confuse the low-information voters, depress the base, and cost us in the next midterms and beyond? I fear the latter.
I know we're not there yet. It might not happen. But what if? Will you talk me off the ledge or are you going to get on it with me? (Don't worry. Just a metaphor.)