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President Obama and Democratic Senatorial candidates swept statewide elections in the following six states with total margins (Democratic percent minus Republican percent) of 4.6% and 8.5%, respectively.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans hold a 235-200 edge, for a 35 vote margin.  In these six states, Republicans hold a 68-35 edge, for a 33 vote margin.  So these six states essentially constitute the Republican majority in the House.

State               Obama Margin    Senate Margin    House Democrats    House Republicans
Florida            1.9%                13.0%                     10                     17
Michigan            9.5%                20.8%                       5                       9
Ohio                    1.9%                  5.2%                       4                     12
Pennsylvania    6.8%                  8.9%                     10                     17
Virginia            3.0%                  5.0%                       3                       8
Wisconsin            6.7%                  5.6%                       3                       5

Total                    4.6%                  8.5%                     35                     68

These six states are where President Obama, and those who support him on the Fiscal Cliff, should focus their energy on garnering Republican votes.

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Comment Preferences

  •  The modern Republican party: (8+ / 0-)

    doing everything in their power to make things as undemocratic as possible.

    "Mandate" in the House, my ass.

    Nice breakdown - you should send it to Rachel Maddow.

    Tipped and recced.

    "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

    by Lawrence on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:07:30 AM PST

  •  And Pa. may well complete a sweep of (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, George3

    non-gerrymanderable offices by 2016:
    2014---governor
    2016---U. S. senate

    And if a Democratic governor the state gerrymandered senate and house may be amenable to mpressure, esp. given the relatively strong power (vis-a-vis some other states) of the governor.

    State Senate pre-2012 election---20-29
    State Senate post-2012 election---23-27

    State House mpre-2012 election---91-110
    State House post-2012 election---93-100

    "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

    by TofG on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 11:24:55 AM PST

  •  So what? (4+ / 0-)

    So does this mean that these 6 states have many Republicans who are in gerrymandered districts so they can win by +1 or +2 percent?

    So does this mean that their slim margin can be defeated in 2014 with good turnout and favorable demographics and the DCCC is going to go all out to find good candidates and support them?

    So does this mean that they can be pressured to break ranks and not vote in lockstep with Boehner and Cantor?

    Inquiring minds want to know.

    •  All of the above, especially the last (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mokurai, George3

      These are rather stark statistics, but the main point of the diarist I though was your last question, yes, Obama should put pressure on the Repub reps from these states because they are tilting further blue.  But you'd have to look at the re-election numbers in each district to see whether any of the Repub reps are in actual jeopardy of being voted out in 2014.  I think Obama should continue the pressure, as he is doing now, all through the next 2-year cycle, so 2014 brings out the Dem voters, unlike 2010.

      •  Some districts to target (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Mokurai, George3, nirbama

        FL-2 Southerland won by 52.7%-47.3%
        FL-10 Webster won by 51.8%-48.2%

        MI-1 Benishek won by 48.2%-47.5%
        MI-3 Amash won by 52.7%-44.1%
        MI-11 Bentivolio won by 50.8%-44.4% Reindeer wackjob

        OH-6 Johnson won by 53.4%-46.6%
        OH-16 Renacci won by 52.2%-47.8%

        PA-12 Rothfus won by 51.8%-48.2%

        VA-2 Rigell won by 53.8%-46.2%

        Also WI-1, WI-7 and WI-8 are winnable with the right candidates.

        Part of the reason the GOP controls the House (a BIG part!!!) is because in Michigan for example, Conyers and Peters were packed into two districts the Dems won by over 80%.  Conyers won with 82.8% and Peters won by 82.2%.  Conversely GOoPer Candace Miller won MI-10 with 68.7%.  No other GOoPer even came close.  The good news here is that in a wave year the Dems can not only pick off the 3 close races but maybe another 1-2.  

        In Ohio it's even worse.  4 Dems won.  One was uncontested, the other three won with 67.8%, 72.6% and 72.5%.  Major packing of Dem voters in these districts.  Conversely Pat Tiberi with 63.7% was the highest vote getter on the GOP side outside of the orange Dildo who ran unopposed.  Of the 12 GOoPers who won in Ohio 8 of them didn't break 60% and a 9th won with 60.2%.  Again in a wave election the Dems could pick off more than the 2 close contests.  The GOP in Ohio seriously gerrymandered the Dems out.  They packed the Dems into 4 districts and spread the GOP pretty thin.  

        In PA much of the same story.  Marino on the GOP side was the big vote getter.  He won with 65.9%.  The 5 Dems?  85%, 89.4%, 68.9%, 76.9% and the slacker of the group Cartwright only won with 60.5%.  Of the 13 GOoPers who won their districts, NINE of them won with less than Cartwright did.  Again in a wave election, the Dems could well sweep some of them out.  The GOoPers ridiculously packed the Dems and spread themselves out pretty thinly.  

        Virginia?  Dems 81.2%, 64.6% and 61%.  The GOoPers?  Only 2 topped 60%.  Not even Eric Cantor topped 60%.   Again, serious gerrymandering.

        Wisconsin same shit.  Dems?  72.3%, 68%, 64.1%.  GOoPers?  Jim Stalinbrenner won with 67.9% and Petri won with 62.1%.  Ryan, Duffy and Ribble?  None of them topped 56.1%.  Again ridiculous gerrymandering.

        I'll even throw in North Carolina.  3 of the 4 Dems won with 74% or more.  The last Dem won by the skin of his teeth.  GGoPers Walter Jones won with 63.2% and Cobble with 60.9%.  Every other GoPer won with less than 60%.  That's 7 of 9 GOopers.

        The Dems need only 17 pickups to flip the House.  I'd focus on these states (as well as NY and NJ).  There are quite a few seats in these states that with a strong push and a wave can flip.  These states are gerrymandered to all hell and if the Dems regain power in these states they should redo the lines.  But short of that they should make the GOP suffer for packing the Dems and diluting the GOP voters.

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:34:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Gerrymandering, pure and simple. (6+ / 0-)

    I used Dave's redistricting website and did Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin based on how we do it in Iowa.
    I paid particular attention to counties and city borders, as well as being in reasonable shapes.
    Without even running a few scenarios, based on 2008 votes, in those states D's are being hosed out of in the neighborhood of 28 house seats in those states.
    Florida             -4
    Penn               -5
    Ohio                -5
    Virginia            -4
    Michigan           -7
    Wisconsin         -3

    Add in NC (-3) and Missouri (-1) and it's even worse.

    OK, this would create some voting rights act issues, but can we MAYBE agree that in 2012 you don't have to be a member of a certain demographic to represent a demographics interests effectively and honestly?

    WTF!?!?!?! When did I move to the Republic of Gilead?!

    by IARXPHD on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 12:05:22 PM PST

    •  See Steve Cohen, D-TN9, representing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nirbama

      a majority-Black district in Memphis and Shelby County. He was on Up with Chris Hayes recently talking about voting rights, among other things.

      Or Asians in CA and HI representing everybody.

      America—We built that!

      by Mokurai on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 04:58:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Add a dishonorable mention for North Carolina (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IreGyre, nirbama

    A clear Democratic majority in congressional popular vote (even though Obama did not carry the state) yields 3 Democrats and 9 Republicans and a formerly safe Democratic seat that's now lumbered with a Republican request for a recount, so close did the gerrymandering get to knocking off the incumbent there.

    Formerly NC had seven Democrats and six Republicans -- exactly what you'd expect from the distribution of the vote.

  •  Every time I look at the House map for PA... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nirbama, IreGyre, happy camper

    I am furious.

    This is what happens when we only turn out to vote in Presidential years.  

    "I don't give them Hell. I just tell the truth about them and they think it's Hell."

    by Notthemayor on Wed Nov 28, 2012 at 01:52:31 PM PST

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