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8:11 AM PT: MO-08: Just tweets so far, but we already have reports of a second (forthcoming) House resignation:

AP: Rep. Jo Ann Emerson says she is leaving Congress in Feb to become the pres/CEO for the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association.

@mpoindc via Seesmic twhirl
More as we get it.

8:18 AM PT: A resignation will trigger a special election, of course, and in Missouri, nominations for specials are handled by committee—there's no primary. That'll give Emerson a chance to influence who her successor is. I wouldn't hold out much hope for an upset possibility: We haven't crunched the most recent election results yet, but the 8th District went 60-38 for John McCain in 2008, which means it's extremely red territory. (Emerson did draw a well-funded challenge from Iraq vet Tommy Sowers in 2010, but despite spending $1.6 million, he took less than 29 percent of the vote.)

10:55 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: Jeffmd's been busy down at the SSP Labs' Skunkworks, and we now have presidential election results for another 50 congressional districts:

California (4 of 53: CA-06 through CA-08, CA-31)

Illinois (11 of 18, IL-01 through IL-10, IL-12)

Iowa (state)

Kentucky (state)

Michigan (10 of 14: MI-01, MI-02, MI-06 through MI-09, MI-11 through MI-14)

Nevada (state)

Utah (1 of 4: UT-01):

Wisconsin (state)


Starting out west, Obama's numbers held up surprisingly well in California, with Dan Lungren's Ami Bera's CA-07 going for the President at a comparable clip to 2008. The numbers also suggest that Gary Miller in CA-31 shouldn't rest too easy, as he's the Republican (likely) with the bluest district at 57 percent Obama (fractionally bluer than it was four years ago).

In Nevada, the difference between NV-03 and NV-04 at the congressional level also showed itself upballot: Obama's strong(er) performance in NV-04 undoubtedly helped Steven Horsford across the finish line where John Oceguera fell short (though of course the 3rd was not an open seat).

The 3rd and 4th districts in Iowa, though, show some differences between the Congressional races and the Presidential race: Vilsack-King in the IA-04 came in right around the presidential toplines, but Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell in IA-03 lagged Obama badly.

Moving next door to Wisconsin, we can see just how brutal the Republican gerrymander was, and potentially why Messrs. Zerban, Kreitlow, and Wall all finished at roughly the same place (11-12 points back of their respective Republican opponents). Remarkably, four districts (the 1st, 6th, 7th, and 8th) all flipped from Obama wins in 2008 to Romney wins in 2012.

In Illinois, the effect of the receding home-state tide was fairly obvious, with Obama losing a handful of points in almost every district. Perhaps the Democratic foil to Wisconsin, the congressional map kept Obama in the mid-to-high 50's in the suburban swing districts, which allowed them to fall nicely into the Democratic pickup column. Dem Bill Enyart also deserves credit for whomping Republican Jason Plummer by as much as he did in IL-12 (where Obama only narrowly squeezed out a win).

There wasn't a "home-state" effect in Michigan per se in 2008, but Obama also saw a drop here, partially owing to Mitt Romney's decision to contest the state (at least more than McCain did, anyway). Consequently, several narrowly-Obama districts are now Romney districts (perhaps again showing the power of the gerrymander, as in Wisconsin).

Finally, the Kentucky numbers show us that Ben Chandler had quite the tide to swim against, with Obama's numbers dropping considerably in KY-06. It's nowhere as bad as KY-05 next door, though, which swung more than 8 points against the President, giving him just 23 percent. It would take the title for reddest district calculated so far, but for UT-01, where Obama only narrowly crossed 20 percent.

Also, a few administrative notes: The various Google Docs holding the calculations might be offline periodically, as more updates are incorporated. Additionally, thanks to everyone who has been sending us various calculations—even if we aren't always able to response, it's definitely appreciated. As you can tell, this exercise is fairly data-intensive, and we want to make sure that everything is incorporated consistently and accurately.

11:19 AM PT: By the way, please welcome Daily Kos Elections' David Jarman to Twitter. A must-follow account for all data junkies.

11:34 AM PT: KY-Gov: Former Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who narrowly lost two Senate races (in the general in 2004 and in the Democratic primary in 2010), says he's "looking at" a possible gubernatorial bid in 2015, when current Gov. Steve Beshear is term-limited out. He joins a huge crowd of other top-name Dems who are looking at the job, though... for a contest that is, after all, still three years off.

11:47 AM PT: TN-04: Not going down without a fight, it seems: Disgraced GOP Rep. Scott DesJarlais says that he has "no intention of resigning his seat and will seek reelection in 2014," according to the Chattanooga Times Free Press. Helpfully, he also adds that God has "forgiven me." But if DesJarlais really does stick to his guns, he's gonna have a much tougher time: As a physician, DesJarlais received heavy support from medical PACs, which gave his campaign $71K in 2012. But half a dozen are now saying they plan to abandon him, and another six say they haven't decided—while none, of course, are affirmatively sticking with him, according to a canvass undertaken by the Times Free Press.

This particular exercise also offers a telling window into just how clueless some of these political shops can be, particularly those which reflexively support politicians based on things like profession rather than any other merits. Take these remarks from the American Association of Neurological Surgeons' NeurosurgeryPAC, which donated $2,000 to DesJarlais:

"Until this week, we had no knowledge of any of the allegations made against Rep. DesJarlais. ... I believe I can safely say that NeurosurgeryPAC will not be contributing to Rep. DesJarlais in the future."
I'm pretty amazed that someone whose job it is to figure out which candidates to support and give money to somehow didn't hear about DesJarlais's unreal story until just now—and I'm also amazed they'd cop to it. This is probably as good an illustration as any of the difference between "smart money" and, well, dumb money.

12:13 PM PT: IL-02: Whoever prevails in the Democratic primary to replace ex-Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. is almost certainly going to win with a very small plurality. Cook County Chief Administrative Officer Robin Kelly just became the seventh candidate to announce her entry into the race, following state Sen. Donne Trotter late last week and five others before that. According to Shira Toeplitz, two potential candidates have pulled their names from consideration, though: Rev. Corey Brooks and Alderman Will Burns.

There's still plenty of time before the filing deadline, which is not until Jan. 7 (PDF). Democratic hopefuls have to submit 1,256 valid signatures to appear on the ballot.

12:18 PM PT: CA-51: This is important only from a housekeeping perspective: Dem Rep. Bob Filner, who won the San Diego mayoral race last month, resigned from the House on Monday so that he could be sworn in as mayor. That leaves his seat open for the remainder of the lame duck session, but it will be filled in January by Democrat Juan Vargas, who won the contest to succeed Filner in Congress.

12:18 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-Gov: Here's the futile uphill slog that Washington state Republicans are facing, boiled down to one handy map. The Seattle Times has put out a precinct-level map of gubernatorial race data in King and Snohomish Counties, showing just how little traction Rob McKenna, the most electable possible candidate they could scrape up, got in the state's most populous areas.

12:28 PM PT: OH-Treasurer: Hey, maybe we can beat him again: Republican Josh Mandel, who ran one of the most disgusting, lie-filled campaigns of 2012 and lost despite an astounding $40 million spent to vilify his opponent, Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown, says his "plan" is to seek re-election as state treasurer in 2014. He certainly doesn't sound fully committed to the idea, though, so I wouldn't be surprised if he bailed for something that involved more money and (even) less work.

12:57 PM PT: Also, Gov. Pat Quinn signed legislation on Sunday that formally moves the date of the IL-02 special general election to April 9, to consolidate it with already-scheduled municipal elections that are taking place that day. The primary—which is the only meaningful race—will still take place on Feb. 26.

1:27 PM PT (David Jarman): Ballot measures: Governing's Louis Jacobson is out with an interesting list of below-the-radar ballot measures where the result went "against type," in other words, not what you'd expect out of the state. Maybe the best-known one is Oregon's marijuana legalization measure, which failed (contrary to those in Washington and Colorado), primarily for lack of money, but he also discusses the failure of the GMO food labeling measure in California, ed reform failures in Idaho and South Dakota, passage of an indoor smoking ban in North Dakota, and passage of a land conservation in Alabama.

1:31 PM PT: House GOP: Looks like there's been an interesting behind-the-scenes wipeout of some of the most notorious dystopian wreckers who've been a thorn in John Boehner's side. The GOP Steering Committee has removed AZ-06 Rep. David Schweikert of Arizona and NC-03 Rep. Walter Jones from Financial Services Committee, and MI-03 Rep. Justin Amash and KS-01 Rep. Tim Huelskamp from the Budget Committee—reportedly all for failing to vote with leadership sufficiently often. Jones has been an occasional gadfly from the left, but the other three, especially Amash, practically live to give Boehner agita, as I've written about before.

You'll also recall that Schweikert defeated fellow Rep. Ben Quayle in a redistricting-induced primary earlier this year. The well-connected Quayle was the favorite of House leaders, and John Boehner went out of his way to fluff him. That led the Club for Growth to threaten Boehner to stay out of the primary (which he did), though it's going to be a pyrrhic victory if Schweikert gets neutered in terms of committee assignments.

You have to wonder if this kind of payback will actually succeed in bringing the Club and other conservative meddlers to heel, or if it'll just inspire them to fight the establishment even harder. The Heritage Foundation's action arm is already furious, calling Schweikert's removal "unthinkable," but will it still be worth winning all these primaries if Boehner reduces all their favorites to backbencher status? I'm going to guess they won't give up, though, which will just mean that the GOP's intra-party turf wars will continue on their current trend and grow ever nastier.

1:33 PM PT (David Jarman): Governors: Univ. of Minnesota's Smart Politics skewers one enduring piece of conventional wisdom: that governors have a big impact on being able to shape who wins the presidential race in their state, thanks to deploying their political machine (or, if you're one of the conspiracy-minded types, machines). In 2012, the majority (11 of 16) of the states decided by single-digits in the presidential race went the other direction from the state's governor. And historically, of all the elections since 1968, states have voted for a presidential candidate from the other party than that of the state's reigning governor 50.2% of the time; you can't get much more random than that.


1:48 PM PT: (Rural Electric is also apparently Emerson's biggest all-time campaign contributor.)

2:10 PM PT: SD-Sen: If Dem Sen. Tim Johnson decides to retire rather than seek re-election, the bench of possible replacements is short, but here's one more name: U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson, who is Tim's son. While it's not the sort of post that offers a lot of name rec, serving as a USA can offer a great springboard for public office, especially for a Democrat in a red state. You develop political connections, and you also get to craft a law-and-order record that is mostly free of partisan entanglements. (For instance, former U.S. Attorney Dave Freudenthal managed the unlikely feat of winning the Wyoming governorship as a Democrat in 2002.) So if Johnson bows out and ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin isn't interested, Johnson may be the next best bet for Team Blue.

2:24 PM PT: TN-Sen: Tennessee Democrats have absolutely no bench (witness this year's Mark Clayton disaster), so the one guy everyone always talks to for every race is ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen, the last Dem to win statewide. Unsurprisingly, though, Bredesen says he has pretty much no interest in taking on GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander in 2014. Bredesen, 69, cautions that he's "always careful to never say 'never, never, never, never,'" but, well, he's just being careful.

2:36 PM PT: NY-01: A conservative group with the lulzy name of "Patriots for Freedom" is trying to dissuade Republican Randy Altschuler from a third run at Dem Rep. Tim Bishop by means of a post-election poll which, they say, shows that Altschuler is "simply unelectable" because of his "record of outsourcing American jobs to India, his failure to win a significant majority of Republican votes, and his lack of interparty appeal." I've never heard of this organization before, though, nor have I heard of their pollster ("In The Field Consulting"), but at least one of their findings looks seriously suspect. They claim (based on a one-day sample of just 300 respondents) that Altschuler only took 60% of the GOP vote, while Bishop took 30%. That level of crossover support is almost impossible to believe, so I'm skeptical of this whole thing.

2:48 PM PT: AK-Sen: GOP Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, whose name has already been mentioned as a possible candidate, says he's forming an exploratory committee to look at a potential challenge to Dem Sen. Mark Begich. Treadwell is a wealthy oilman who first sough (and won) office in 2010, largely self-funding his campaign. If he does take the plunge, he'll probably fill the "establishment candidate" role, which suggests there's plenty of room for "insurgent wingnut" to run as well.

2:57 PM PT: SC-Sen, KS-Sen: Lindsey Graham is one of those Republican senators who, despite being very conservative, is occasionally a bit wobbly on things like taxes and thus is the kind of guy the tea party set would love to oust. The problem is that they don't have a whole lot of potential takers, though at least state Sen. Tom Davis is now publicly mulling a run. But Davis is vague about a potential timetable and says he's declined to meet with some DC-based groups that have been trying to recruit him, so nothing may come of this.

The same article also suggests, Great Mentioner-style, that ex-Rep. Todd Tiahrt could possibly primary Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts. That's not a name you usually hear on watch-lists, but Politico says Roberts' sin is that he's "remained silent on the issue of tax increases." So now it's not just taking the opposing side which earns you movement conservative ire—failing to be a sufficient loudmouth is also a crime.

3:30 PM PT: LA-03: A new poll of the LA-03 runoff by PMI, Inc., on behalf of the conservative website Red Racing Horses, finds GOP Rep. Charles Boustany leading fellow GOP Rep. Jeff Landry 51-33 in Saturday's fast-approaching runoff. That's a little better for Landry than the 56-29 edge Boustany held in his own internal a few weeks ago, but it's hard to call those numbers particularly good news. Both candidates also filed pre-runoff fundraising reports with the FEC late last month, and Boustany cleaned up there as well: Between Oct. 18 and Nov. 18, he pulled in $887K and spent over a $1 million, while Landry amassed just $300K and spent $750K.

But that's somewhat balanced out by the fact that outside spending has, to date, tilted slightly in Landry's favor. According to Roll Call, third party groups have spent $800K on his behalf, versus $600K coming in for Boustany. The edge is definitely still Boustany's—Landry has disputed his opponent's polling but refuses to provide any of his own—and so we still have the race at "Lean Boustany." But Landry prevailed in his first race in 2010 by upsetting the establishment (in huge fashion), and his brand of movement conservatism seems more likely to drive hardcore supporters to the polls in a low turnout runoff, so a repeat performance is still possible.

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Comment Preferences

  •  LA-03 Runoff Poll: Boustany 51 / Landry 33 (7+ / 0-)

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 06:02:27 AM PST

  •  Thank you (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

    For the number of relevant independent candidates likely to run in VA-Gov.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 06:03:44 AM PST

  •  is anyone else really annoyed at the SCOTUS (7+ / 0-)

    right now?

    stop kicking the gay marriage can down the road, guys!

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 06:39:40 AM PST

  •  Figured I'd take a look... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    As many have at the seats where we have PVI info so far which could be competitive in 2014.  Keep in mind I'm just listing 2012 numbers alone.  Positive trends (for us) are bolded, negative trends are italicized.  

    Very R-Leaning D seats:

    WV-03 (R+18)
    GA-12 (R+8)
    MN-07 (R+7)

    Moderately R-Leaning D seats:
    FL-18 (R+4)
    AZ-01 (R+3)
    AZ-02 (R+3)

    Tossup D Seats:

    MN-01, NH-01 (R+1)
    CA-36, AZ-09 (EVEN)
    MN-08 (D+1)
    FL-26, CT-05 (D+2)

    Potentially Competitive D Seats:

    FL-22, NH-02 (D+3)
    NV-04, CT-04 (D+4)

    Tossup R Seats

    FL-27 (D+1)
    IA-03 (EVEN)
    FL-13, VA-02, MN-03, NV-03 (R+1)
    MN-02 (R+2)

    Potentially Competitive R Seats:

    VA-04, VA-10, FL-25 (R+3)
    FL-27 (R+4)

    So far, I'd suggest the following is true.  

    1.  We're going to lose all of the heavily R seats eventually, albeit some merely by retirement some time in the next decade.  

    2.  On the other hand, the remainder of the map seems to be getting better for us so far.  Our tough holds are mostly getting more Democratic, outside of a few "white and rich" districts which were not incredibly insecure to begin with.  And virtually every narrowly Republican district is moving towards us.

    Historically the "competitive PVI" was considered around R+6 to D+4 or so.  I didn't show the R+5 and R+6 seats, because I don't think they are in the running any more.  Honestly, I don't think Republicans can pick up any house seats in a district with a greater than D+2 PVI either anymore, but I figured I'd show an equal range on both sides for fairness's sake.  

    •  A lot of these seats have a disconnect (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      They vote one way for president and another way all together down ballot. It can take a long long time to see the shifts at the local level after they begin being noticed at the presidential level.

      •  I'm not sure I'd say a lot. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, MichaelNY

        Keep in mind that out of that list, only five Democratic seats voted for Romney, and only seven Republican seats voted for Obama (and he only cleared 50% in three).  This is out of 134 seats I have fairly good information on so far.  

        That's a remarkable degree of polarization - quite possibly the greatest polarization on the House level we've ever had.  

        The question arises of course - would we expect the polarization to continue?  I'd have to say yes.  People tend to still vote for the candidate for Senate and Governor to some degree, but House votes are becoming quite close to generic R/D.  

        •  Is gerrymandering worse now (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          than it's been in the past? In the past, would it have been negated to some extent by the fact that the parties, especially the Republican party, were more accepting of moderates?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:31:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think I'd say its worse... (4+ / 0-)

            It's just that gerrymandering is done for different purposes.  Keep in mind that the old PA-13 was actually constructed to be a Republican seat, for example.  Republicans had no issue drawing seats for moderates, and Democrats no issues drawing them for conservatives.  

            Instead, I think the issue is twofold.

            1.  The parties candidates have become more polarized.  Republicans used to nominate moderates in liberal districts, and the Democrats had a full ideological range.  To the extent this happens these days, the candidates end up on "some dude" level without any national support.

            2.  People aren't willing to split tickets between the House and President like they used to.  Why should they, when they realize that rather than constituent services, the main job of a congressmen will be to either impede or facilitate the President's agenda?  

          •  Yes it is (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            One of my former professors who's an expert on gerrymandering for the Democrats said that with computers they can now split districts down to the household or street. More partisan information in combination with new technology that helps use that information leads to better gerrymandering efforts.

            (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

            by kman23 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:03:31 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  We have more districts than that already finished (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:11:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I take issue with this comment:

      And virtually every narrowly Republican district is moving towards us.
      NH-1 (Shea-Porter-D) R+0 to R+1
      FL-13 (Young) R+1 to R+2
      FL-18 (Murphy-D) R+1 to R+3
      FL-16 (Buchanan) R+5 to R+6
      MN-7 (Peterson-D) R+5 to R+6
      AR-2 (Griffin) R+5 to R+8

      We simply do not have much data for some of their 04/08 PVI marginal districts. Of the rest of the districts which were marginal (R+0 to R+5) before 12 data, 5 districts stayed the same and 4 moved toward us.

      I just don't think the current data support that assertion.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:19:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  On your specifics... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I don't consider AR-02, MN-07, or FL-16 to be narrowly Republican.  An R+5 seat was hard for anyone but a Blue Dog to hold down historically.  This is more a question of Republican seats getting more Republican.  

        FL-13 actually improved by around 1% from 2008 to 2012.  The overall PVI might have shrunk a bit, but this is because Kerry over-performed there.  The same thing happened in quite a different district - MN-08.  

        As for NH-01 and FL-18, yes, they did move against us.  As I said, a particular type of swing district did get a bit worse in 2012 - white, wealthy, suburban districts.  You can already see this in Democratic erosion in suburban seats in Connecticut and Nevada, as well as VA-10, and I'm sure the same thing will be seen when the Philly Burbs come in.  Simply put, Obama did pretty well in 2008 with very wealthy people, but he lost this vote to Romney this time.  

        •  ... (0+ / 0-)

          Theories that require so many qualifiers, as you've done, should be discarded for something better.

          22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:36:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Intention (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            It wasn't my intention to sound snappy. I apologize for that. :P

            I just don't think that the characterization that "narrowly Republican seats moved toward us" is true with the data that we have so far.

            And even by your own admission alot of these have actually moved against us in PVI because most of their narrow seats are suburban seats where Obama did not hold up well.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:37:53 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  A few things... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              1.  You're looking at seats using traditional PVI, which compares the 04-08 average to the new 08-12 average.  I'm looking at each election in isolation.  Although it's not how Cook does it, I think it has some merits if you want to look at very recent swings.  It's why I can say that FL-13 narrowly moved in our direction, and you can say it moved away from us.  

              2.  Out of the eleven districts I listed above which are held by a Republican but less than R+4 in 2012 only PVI, nine moved towards us at least nominally.  That's pretty hopeful, as it suggests they'll all (presuming similar swings) be even more favorable to us by 2016 and 2020.  Looking at the additional barely Republican seats you had information for, only Paul Ryan's seat shifted a bit to the right - for obvious reasons.  

              3.  There's a world of difference between an R+5 and an R+2 seat.  In 2012, an R+5 seat voted Romney by around a 53% to 47% split.  In contrast, a R+2 seat is one where Obama and Romney essentially tied.  In R+5 seats, the decline in split-ticketing outweighs changing demographics, while the reverse tends to be true in R+2 seats, as there's enough of an influx of new voters (minorities, etc) to drift the seat to the left.  

        •  MN-8 (5+ / 0-)

          Obama is an an exceptionally bad fit for the district. Depending on who the Democrats nominate in 2016, expect the PVI to bounce back quite a bet. A candidate like Schweitzer could clear 60% there.

          •  I'm not sure about that (7+ / 0-)

            I think the same reason that Democrats are plummeting in Appalachia is causing our plummet in the UP, the Iron Range, and perhaps even parts of northern Wisconsin: extraction industries are inhospitable to Democrats because of the national party's focus on the environment.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:32:33 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  UP Democrats (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem, MichaelNY, bumiputera

              The weird thing about UP Democrats is that while mining and logging are big in the UP, because they are also hunters and surrounded by nature they also are more pro-enviornmental than most miners/loggers It's a weird relationship. They dislike people bashing their jobs (probably due to both personal pride and a need for the job to not vanish) but they also dislike companies that openly abuse the environment. But to qualify their lack of support for Obama because of an environmental disagreement with the national party I believe is overly simplistic.

              (-6.12,-3.18), Dude, 24, MI-07 soon to be MI-12, went to college in DC-at large K-Pop Song du Jour: Miss A's "I Don't Need a Man"

              by kman23 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:09:10 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Here's what I have for 2014 for the ones (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      wwmiv has done 2008/2012 PVI's for.  My guess is few seats will switch hands either way overall.

      DEM SEATS

      Tossup/Tilt R Pickup

      FL-18 (Murphy) - R+3 (reddening district)

      Tossup/Tilt D

      CA-36 (Ruiz) - R+1 (bluing district)
      FL-26 (Garcia) - R+1 (bluing district)
      TX-23 (Gallego) - R+3 (bluing district)

      Lean D

      GA-12 (Barrow) - R+9 (no sign of weakness)
      NH-01 (Shea-Porter) - R+1 (ex-Rep. not a real freshman)

      Likely D

      CT-05 (Esty) - D+3 (bluing district)
      FL-22 (Frankel) - D+3 (historically blue district)
      MN-08 (Nolan) - D+1 (historically blue district)
      NH-02 (Kuster) - D+3 (pretty solidly blue district)

      REPUBLICAN SEATS

      Lean D Pickup

      CA-31 (Miller) - D+5 (fluke 2012 win over Republican)

      Likely R

      FL-13 (Young) - R+2 (possible retirement - 81 y/o)
      KY-06 (Barr) - R+8 (freshman in Demosaur district)
      MN-02 (Kline) - R+2 (possible Senate run)
      MN-03 (Paulsen) - R+2 (possible Senate run)
      MN-06 (Bachmann) - R+10 (crazy)
      VA-02 (Rigell) - R+2 (bluing district)
      VA-10 (Wolf) - R+2 (possible retirement - 73 y/o)

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:30:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Keep in mind... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, MichaelNY

        The Texas map was only good for the 2012 elections.  Republicans need to draw a new map for 2014 which will meet the muster of the courts.  They can't make TX-23 any more Republican without getting spanked again.  So I could easily see them doing triage and moving a few Democratic areas around to shore up their incumbents better.  

      •  Wolf (0+ / 0-)

        73 is not very old, especially for a member of Congress. I believe he has been in Congress for a long time, but he seems to like the job, so I would not rate the chances of his retiring that highly - maybe 10%. If he doesn't retire, he's probably safe, and I'd call VA-10 only a "race to watch."

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:10:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MO-08: Jo Ann Emerson retiring in February (8+ / 0-)

    Results from November not even certified yet, and we already have two open seats coming up, first Jesse Jackson, Jr. and now Jo Ann Emerson:  http://www.semissourian.com/...

    Missouri has been only reddening and I imagine it would be a huge upset for us to pick up this seat.  But still something to watch, in case an unusually strong candidate gets in.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:03:07 AM PST

    •  It doesn't get better than Sowers who got 29% (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, nycyoungin, MichaelNY

      Very red territory. No reason to compete.
      Rushin got 24.6% this year.

    •  It would take a miracle for a Dem to win there (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      The only way I could see Democrats winning MO-8 is if Republicans nominated Rush Limbaugh (who is from Cape Girardeau, which is in MO-8) or someone like Limbaugh, and Democrats nominated a very strong candidate.

      Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:29:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  female GOP reps (8+ / 0-)

      dropping to 18 in the incoming Congress.  They had 23 following 2010, 17 following 2008, 21 following 2006, 24 following 2004, 21 following 2002.

      When a Democrat retires in a solidly blue seat, there are almost always strong female candidates in the mix.  Not so much in the solid red districts.

      An interesting way to look at this: following the 2008 elections, which reduced Republicans to just 178 seats, they had just 17 women.  Four years later, which has seen them add a net 56 seats (at 234 total now), they have added just a single net female representative.  The other 55 net gains are male.

      Another comparison: 2004 and 2012 gave Republicans similarly sized majorities in the House (232 versus 234 seats), however the number of women Republicans dropped from 24 to 18 over those eight years.

      •  Going to start doing to numbers for Dems (0+ / 0-)

        I could just subtract the GOP numbers from the total numbers listed on wikipedia's page, but I'm not certain of their numbers.  I got the GOP numbers by simply going through the full election results each year and counting.  It's a lot faster than it sounds at first, after a couple years you start to notice there's only ever one female GOP rep from California, one from Texas, one from Michigan, none at all from the Deep South, etc.  I did the same for Democrats (taking note of other patterns) and got different totals than the wikipedia page.

        Specifically, 58 Dem women in 2012, 49 in 2010, 54 in 2008, 50 in 2006, 42 in 2004, 39 in 2002 for combined totals of 77, 72, 71, 66, 60 respectively).

  •  I thought I'd ask... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    What Democratic-held seats people think may be moving away from us that are unexpected.  

    I don't mean seats like NC-07, which everyone expects us to lose in 2014, or MN-07, where once the incumbent retires we'd be disfavored.  I mean seats which are considered traditionally Democratic, but where in the longer-run we may be in trouble?

    I have a few hunches here, but I figure I'd throw it to the crowd first.  

    •  Nick Rahall's seat (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is very traditionally Democratic.

      Or is that now what you meant?

      •  He likely means (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        seats like MN-8, NY-1, NY-3 and the like that are Democratic but disappointing results at the top of the ticket seem to suggest that they are not trending our way (ie. districts that Kerry won or came close in that then only went like 51% for Obama).

        •  Pretty much this... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          nt

        •  The district lines (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          changed a lot for NY-03, so an exact comparison is kind of hard. Israel won fairly easily, too.

          And NY-01? Well, in 2010, it was 2010. This year, rightly or wrongly, Bishop was tarred by scandal and faced Altschuler yet again. He still won by four points.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:56:27 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Before things like this (4+ / 0-)

            Seep into popular consciousness, let me opine that that should be "tarred by bogus non-scandal."

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 03:51:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, I think that's right. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I mean, I wasn't crazy about the fact that his daughter got so much from working on his campaign, but I guess that's really no different than any other politician. And while the stuff with the hedge fund guy looked bad, it didn't seem to go beyond that.

              I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

              by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:27:21 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Honestly (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca, bjssp

                I didn't love the fact that some congressman was trying to help some 1%er get around environmental regulations so that he could throw some sickeningly ultra-lavish bar mitzvah for his kid. I mean, seriously, the party (at a fucking oceanside home in Southampton) would have sucked without fireworks? That was gross — but that's fucking sadly standard.

                As for Politico (and Randy Altschuler) trying to turn that into some kind of corruption scandal, though, that's pathetic.

                Political Director, Daily Kos

                by David Nir on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:18:40 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  None? (0+ / 0-)

      At this point, isn't the realignment more or less complete?

      If not, perhaps those in West Virginia.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:34:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't expect us to lose NC-07 in 2014 (6+ / 0-)

      so everyone except me I guess.  Struggling in your first race in a new district and then entrenching has been done before (John Barrow and Jim Marshall).

      But here are the ones where we know PVI dropped from 2004/2008 to 2008/2012:

      CA-12 (Pelosi) - D+35 to D+34
      CT-02 (Courtney) - D+6 to D+5
      FL-18 (Murphy) - R+1 to R+3
      FL-21 (Deutch) - D+12 to D+10
      FL-22 (Frankel) - D+5 to D+3
      FL-23 (Wasserman-Schultz) - D+11 to D+9
      ME-02 (Michaud) - D+3 to D+2
      MN-07 (Peterson) - R+5 to R+6
      MN-08 (Nolan) - D+3 to D+1
      NH-01 (Shea-Porter) - EVEN to R+1

      Not sure if any of these is "really" moving away from us, though.  Northern MN and Palm Beach FL may just be an anti-Obama thing.  CT-02, ME-02, and NH-01 may have more to do with relative Kerry strength in 2004 as a MA resident than any real trend.  

      CA-12 is an unusual case.  It is the only really high PVI Dem district that went the wrong way.  I don't really understand that.

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

      by spiderdem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:41:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The rest of the country got more Democratic... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, nycyoungin, MichaelNY

        And CA-12 stayed the same, since it had already pretty much maxed out.  

        •  Here's some more from today's dump. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nycyoungin, MichaelNY

          IL-07 (Davis) - D+37 to D+36
          IL-12 (Enyart) - D+2 to EVEN
          MI-13 (Conyers) - D+34-D+33
          WI-03 (Kind) - D+6 to D+5

          So CA-12 is no longer alone among the high PVI districts.

          IL-12 and WI-03 strike me as the first districts I have listed where a real trend is happening.  Obama lost some steam in some of these big, sprawling, historically blue districts in the upper Midwest, especially in 2012.

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

          by spiderdem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:59:10 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  And here's another list of Republican held (4+ / 0-)

            seats that got bluer.

            AK-AL (Young) - R+13 to R+12
            CA-01 (LaMalfa) - R+10 to R+9
            CA-08 (Cook) - R+12 to R+10
            CA-31 (Miller) - D+2 to D+5
            CA-42 (Calvert) - R+12 to R+9
            CA-45 (Campbell) - R+8 to R+7
            CA-48 (Rohrabacher) - R+8 to R+7
            FL-07 (Mica) - R+5 to R+4
            FL-10 (Webster) - R+7 to R+6
            FL-15 (Ross) - R+8 to R+7
            FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) - R+9 to R+6
            FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen) - R+6 to R+2
            GA-07 (Woodall) - R+16 to R+14
            IA-03 (Latham) - R+1 to EVEN
            IL-06 (Roskam) - R+5 to R+4
            OK-05 (Lankford) - R+13 to R+12
            SC-02 (Wilson) - R+14 to R+13
            SC-05 (Mulvaney) - R+9 to R+8
            TX-31 (Carter) - R+13 to R+11
            VA-01 (Wittman) - R+8 to R+6
            VA-02 (Rigell) - R+5 to R+2
            VA-04 (Forbes) - R+6 to R+3
            VA-05 (Hurt) - R+6 to R+5
            VA-06 (Goodlatte) - R+12 to R+11
            VA-07 (Cantor) - R+11 to R+9
            VA-10 (Wolf) - R+4 to R+2

            Trends are pretty clear here.  All over in CA and VA.  Miami and I-4 Corridor in FL.

            Interestingly, no Republican seat with a 2004-2008 PVI above R+14 trended towards the Democrats.  Highest one to do so was Joe Wilson's SC-02.  Will be interesting to look for that trend when more PVI's come out.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:10:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  thoughts (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, MichaelNY

      MN8 should trend red. I would expect most of its population growth to come from the Minneapolis exurbs. I think it will keep sending Dems to congress barring a red wave, though.

      MI8 is purplish and GOP-held but should become more red as I would expect Livingston and the northern Oakland exurbs to grow faster than Ingham.

      TN5 seems like an anomaly. Dems are holding up there even while they're getting obliterated in the rest of the state except Memphis. It's behaving like an urban district, not a mostly white southern district.

      AZ2 could trend red if its growth comes more from retirees than from people moving to Tucson for work. I don't expect this to happen, though.

      AZ1 could trend red if the Tucson exurbs fill up a lot faster than the granola corridor from Flagstaff to Sedona.

      MI5 isn't likely to get much white-collar growth and should trend red, but not enough to make it really competitive. Ditto IL12. I don't think that IL17 is similar. Like its neighbors IA1, IA2, and WI3 it has no red trend whatsoever despite being mostly white and not very urban.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:47:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  IL-12 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, JGibson, MichaelNY

        will I think be clearly moving the wrong way when we get the vote totals.  

        The others I were thinking about were MN-08 and OR-05.  I'm not too worried about either right now, but by 2020 I could see them being Republican.  

        •  OR-05 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

          most of the growth is in the Clackamas County exurbs, which lean Republican, though many not terribly (Sandy and Estacada are about R+3), and Marion County, where an enormous majority of kids in the schools are Hispanic, and by 2020 Salem's trend and Hispanic assimilation will probably make Marion a dead even county, at worst.  As well, the Clackamas County inner suburbs for a while have been moving more Democratic, and unincorporated areas between Gladstone, Happy Valley, and Milwaukie are diversifying.  I am definitely alert seeing Clackamas County going the wrong direction in this election, but I think it had mostly to do with a particular campaign going on rather than trends.  Trends in OR-05 should be fine.  Looking at the other, smaller counties there, Lincoln is trending Dem, Polk & Tillamook are about steady.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:10:32 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  TN-05 (5+ / 0-)

        is an urban district - it's based in Nashville, which is a pretty liberal city. (Rule of thumb: having a good music scene overrules being in the south - southern cities with good music scenes are Dem strongholds.) Obama won Davidson county by 19 points and it's trending blue.

        Wait - you didn't just pull a Ryan and use 'urban' as a euphemism for 'black,' did you?

      •  That's because (7+ / 0-)

        TN-05 is an urban district...

        Unique characteristics of TN-05

        *Huge Entertainment Industry
        *Large Numbers of Public and Private Universities
        *Not a majority of minorities but large populations of African Americans and Hispanics
        *Large white liberal enclaves (East Nashville, The Gulch, Sylvan Park, West End, Green Hills)
        *Relatively large amounts of working class white people that are still friendly to the democrats.
        *Centered and majority is Nashville, Tennessee. We even have a TV show shot here now :-)
        *Nashville hasn't voted for a Republican in the last 50 years...maybe even before.
        *Voted down English-Only law
        *Passed pro gay legislation in City Council
        *City council majority liberal democrats (even if officially non-partisan)
        *Large arts population, even started touting Nashville's 5th avenue as the Avenue of the Arts. Huge concentration of galleries, museums, etc...

        All in all we're not your typical Southern city. Not by a longshot when I hold my husband's hand when we walk down the street and nobody even bats an eye.

        Born in TN-05 and Live in TN-05, Went to college in TN-09 and TN-06, Married in IA-02.

        by zakandsantos on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:48:29 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not sure Green Hills counts as liberal (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, MichaelNY

          as it's pretty purple, but the neighborhoods by 21st Avenue (Hillsboro Road's name in town) north of I-440 certainly do, such as Hillsboro-Belmont where I'm from.

          I'd also add to what you wrote that racial polarization, both historically and presently, is not as severe as in most Southern cities, though that's not to say it doesn't exist. That's probably part of why the city government is fairly immigrant-friendly.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

          by fearlessfred14 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:34:49 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I have a suspicion (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, MichaelNY

      That Democrats. become non-existent in the Orthodox and Hesidic Jewish portions of Brooklyn, and any congressional districts held in that area will shift towards the Republicans in a big way. Yes, there are Democrats like Hikind and Felder represent the area in the state legislature, but Romney approached 90%(!!!) is some of these precincts. The area of New York City that gave us Anthony Weiner and Chuck Schumer will go by the way if the dixiecrats in the next 20 years. Mark my words.

      •  Are these areas (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        big enough to determine an entire district no matter how they are drawn?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:16:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Depends on how they are drawn (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, MichaelNY

          Weiner's district was evaporated in redistricting, but Turner won the special election under the old lines. So in a sense, they already flipped to the Republicans once.

          •  The Orthodox neighborhoods were cracked in (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Adam B, lordpet8, jncca, bjssp, MichaelNY

            redistricting and there's not a single one that's in a district where Obama received less than 80% of the vote.

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:16:18 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  To be more specific (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

              The community was split in near equal parts between the 10th (where I live, which is dominated by 85-15 precincts in Manhattan) and the majority black 9th with significant portions also in the majority black 8th and Puerto-Rican dominated 7th. Obama easily cleared 80% in all of these I believe.

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:23:43 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I guess there is a smidge of the community in the (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Staten Island based 11th, but it's a pretty small slice of a mixed areas in Gravesend so I don't think the impact is that significant.

                26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:25:23 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  So really, there are tiny islands of red in (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                a big ocean of blue?

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:35:08 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  No, (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca, MichaelNY

                  It's actually very easy to draw a district Obama lost in Brooklyn.

                  It just hasn't been done that way.

                  •  I meant as constructed. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Is there really a good chance we'll get a district like that any time soon?

                    I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

                    by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:09:14 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Or rather, I meant the really (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      pro-Romney precincts are tiny islands in a sea of blue, and while you say it's easy to draw a district in Brooklyn that Obama would lose, how likely are we to get that?

                      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

                      by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:13:59 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Oh, no chance at all. (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        okiedem, MichaelNY

                        Okiedem explained it quite well. It's basically just the VRA.

                        I would add, however, that such a district could be quite compact and clean-looking. But it would pack minorities into the other districts and therefore there would be fewer of those districts, which the VRA protects.

                        Now, if the VRA was struck down and independent redistricting were passed in NY, I believe that kind of district would be a distinct possibility, representing a clear community of interest. Although I'm certainly no expert on NYC COI's.

                    •  The VRA and the need to put 300k voters in the SI (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      district makes it basically impossible to draw a Republican South Brooklyn district in all but the most egregious of Republican gerrymanders. The three districts located primarily in Brooklyn are all VRA districts and Staten Island has to eat about 300k Brooklyn voters to meet its population requirements. There aren't many voters left at that point and there's basically nowhere for the VRA districts to go but to the Orthodox neighborhoods to pick up the population they need.

                      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                      by okiedem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:20:44 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  So, even more to the point, how (0+ / 0-)

                        likely is it that we would get a district like that, an egregious of Republican gerrymander?

                        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

                        by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:22:33 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  If Republicans controlled all three branches they (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          could probably do it since the Asian district in Queens isn't protected by the VRA (that distirct would have to be obliterated for the Republican South Brooklyn district to be possible). It is theoretically possible but for all practical purposes it will never happen because it would require giving the finger to a number of key Democratic constituencies for the sake of creating a gerrymandered Republican district.

                          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                          by okiedem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:30:02 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

  •  We should vigorously contest Emerson's seat. (3+ / 0-)

    At this point, what do we have to lose? The 2014 elections are far enough away that any sort of expense won't really hurt us when it comes to contesting seats in that cycle. A loss won't surprise anyone, while doing better than expected, let alone winning, will be a shot in the arm for Missouri Democrats and possibly give us better press coverage.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:29:16 AM PST

    •  In the past 7 elections (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, lordpet8, MichaelNY

      We got 26-29% of the vote here. Really nothing to see. As laughable as Red State suggesting that they should compete in IL-02.

      •  It's a red district, sure, but (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        except for Tommy Sowers, we've never had a well funded candidate in that district. And Sowers' competed in 2010, not exactly the bluest of years.

        I don't doubt that it's an uphill battle, to say the least. I just don't think we have anything to lose, now or in the future, by trying to compete here.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:46:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  MO8 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY

          The only way a Dem could win the special is if the GOP had an Akin-level implosion, and even then the GOP would almost certainly run someone else and take it right back in 2014. Dems have no history of even being competitive there. The Dems should only get involved to ensure that a lunatic or troll doesn't win the primary.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:55:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's not just an uphill battle, it's impossible (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          That said, if some millionaire wants to come in and contest it great. But recruitment would be a absolutely wasted effort.

          •  It's wasted for a special election? (0+ / 0-)

            As I asked sacman, does someone have to give up a current job to run? I'd think not, since it's a special election.

            I'm not trying to suggest we have to do a few things differently in order to win. My point is that it seems to be a very low-risk opportunity. (It's the same situation for the Republicans in IL-02, except that we will probably pick an appropriate candidate for the district.) The 2014 elections are very far into the future, so even if we broke the bank to try to win, it wouldn't really hurt us next cycle. Also, it's a pretty sweet test case for new tactics or themes in red districts. And we don't be facing an incumbent. Not that it's all that likely this district would be ours, but it's harder still once we begin facing an incumbent.

            I really don't understand the negativity here. I mean, if I had to bet, I'd say we still lose, but there's really no reason we shouldn't try.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:03:57 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  So what do you mean by try? (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

              If you mean that we should go out an recruit a candidate who can spend their own money, than I'm all for that, as long as they realize the long odds.

              If you mean we should go out and recruit someone "promising" without money, and then the Dems should spend, I don't agree with that at all. There's no comparison between this year in 2008 - Republicans aren't that discouraged. There's no way we will win this seat unless there is a serious backlash against Republicans for the fiscal cliff (but in a district this red, that backlash is more likely against the Dems).

              I don't think I'm being negative, I think you're being unrealistic, if we are gong to use perjoratives (but really I think I'm being me and you are being you).

              •  Well, we disagree. (0+ / 0-)

                I think we should recruit someone, although who that is, I am not sure. I think we should spend money, as it's not likely to cost all that much and, as I've said, 2014 is far enough away that we can repair our finances in time. Basically, as I said above, we don't have anything to lose. Virtually nobody will be surprised if we lose, but if we do better than expected, it'll be a good indicator of what might work in similar districts and/or be good for a news cycle or two.

                I don't think I am being unrealistic. I said that if I had to bet, I'd say we'd lost. I just think we should try.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:39:00 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  We should recruit the best we can (0+ / 0-)

                Thern spend a decent amount on the race, just like everywhere else where a Republican can stick his head up his ass.

                It's a 60/40 seat, where we had the black guy running.  It is only 70/30 because of Emerson, but she isn't running.  A solid Dem should get 42-44%, and would have a tiny shot to win if the GOP candidate has an Akin moment.

                In other words, did Claire win the district against Akin?

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:01:23 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Akin won, I believe (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  n/t

                  •  The Senate map looks pretty blue (0+ / 0-)

                    but even if Akin won, it was close to a tossup.

                    The lesson is obvious, a Dem can win against a toxic Republican.  Without a primary, we aren't likely to get one, but 100k spent here is a good investment.

                    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                    by tommypaine on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:19:57 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Why is it a good investment (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Especially against a non-toxic Republican?

                      •  If nothing else, look at it as trial and error. (0+ / 0-)

                        We can use this to experiment with new techniques and themes. It's only one race, of course, but they don't come along that often.

                        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                        by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:41:19 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                •  What's the harm in trying, really? (0+ / 0-)

                  Not to beat a dead horse, but I really don't see what's wrong with giving our all here.

                  We aren't going to spend $2,000,000. We might not even spend $500,000, let alone $1,000,000. I'm not sure of how much it might cost, but I'd guess it's less since it we aren't fighting for air time, it's probably not an expensive district to begin with. (On the other hand, do the usual discounts given to candidates' campaigns apply?) I'm also not sure of the DCCC's financial situation, but good or bad, 2014 is far enough in advance that we should be able to swing it and not have it kill us then.

                  So, assuming we aren't going to strain ourselves financially, what's left? That we have no good candidates? Well, that could certainly be a problem, but if there's no current elected official, why not a local cop or businessman? We don't have to worry about wasting this person's time or promising them something they can't have. What else?

                  I'm always told that we shouldn't waste our time trying to flip districts that we aren't likely to win when we could win other, bluer areas. That's right, of course, but now, we aren't focusing on any other race. (IL-02 doesn't really count, unless as someone suggested above, Mel Reynolds is our candidate.) We're also in agreement that to win back the House and keep a majority, we've got to expand outside of blue areas. Here we have a district that is quite red, without much strength at any level, it seems, but one without an incumbent. Why not use this as the great test case it is, to see what works and what doesn't, when it won't really lessen our ability to win other seats in 2014?

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:29:29 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  it will lessen our ability to win other seats (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    jncca, nycyoungin, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

                    money spent here - any money - is money not spent somewhere else.

                    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                    by sapelcovits on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 03:08:59 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  How much might it cost to contest this seat? (0+ / 0-)

                      It's not a Senate seat, and it's not exactly in a hot media market or anything.

                      Figure that if we do better than expected, let alone win, we could make it back easily with a more excited donor base. Also, and most importantly, it would be a very good way to test out strategies and themes for when it really matters.

                      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

                      by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:43:06 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Oh and.. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        bjssp

                        With Carnahan's high name rec and good fundraising abilities, national Democrats could play in this district for a small sum--throw her maybe $250k and she's good to go, and it would force Republicans to spend more, probably.

                        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

                        by arealmc on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:20:09 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                •  Two words: Robin Carnahan (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bjssp, MichaelNY

                  McCaskill and Nixon came very close to winning it, but the only statewide Democrat to do so fairly recently also happens to live in the district. Robin Carnahan won this district in her 2008 SOS race...ya know, the one where she won more votes than any candidate in Missouri ever has, period.

                  She lives in Rolla, a population center of the district. She has no Congressional voting record, just 2 terms as an effective SOS. Her name rec is sky-high and her reputation has recovered, especially since a bunch of recent news articles lamenting the disappearance of the Carnahan family from electoral politics in Missouri.

                  Ok yes, Roy Blunt beat her in 2010, but Blunt was a strong candidate and it was 2010, the year of Death for Democrats. In a weird special election limited to just this district, with a high-name-recognition factor, and the well-liked Carnahan on the ballot versus, say, Sarah Steelman or someone everyone hates, a Democrat could slip through here.

                  Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

                  by arealmc on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:18:58 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  That thread was hilarious. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kleinburger, lordpet8
      •  Against a popular incumbant (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp

        which is not really comparable to an open seat situation.

        This seat is somewhat analogous to the Mississippi 1st district, which we won in special election in 2008.  While the national climate is more hostile currently, an upset is not inconceivable.

        30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        Truman: "The buck stops here!"
        Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

        by Marcus Graly on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:50:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It is to me (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Even if Republicans ran a Todd Akin they would win this. And the national atmosphere is not at all comparable to 2008.

          •  Akin probably won it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Not sure.

            •  Without knowing the Jefferson county breakdown (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tommypaine, MichaelNY

              it's hard to know for certain.

              The rest of the counties went 133,931 Akin to 126,003 McCaskil, however, McCaskill netted 13,117 votes in Jefferson County, so depending on how those broke down, it's possible they pushed her over the top.

              My guess is that Akin still won, but very narrowly, which supports my thesis that the right Dem could make it competitive against flawed opposition.

              30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

              Truman: "The buck stops here!"
              Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

              by Marcus Graly on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:01:48 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Akin won the 8th very narrowly, if it all (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            supporting my argument that it could be competitive under the right circumstances.

            The 7th district is the implacably red part of MO, the 8th is slightly better for us.

            30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

            Truman: "The buck stops here!"
            Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

            by Marcus Graly on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:03:49 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Agreed, this isn't the Bataan death match here (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              We can lose by 10 points under normalish circumstances with a better candidate, and beat a toxic lunatic, for one term at least.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:22:46 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think the problem here... (4+ / 0-)

                Is that you are talking about Todd Akin as if he was the equivalent of Richard Mourdock or Sharon Angle. He wasn't. He was much much worse. Remember that every single Republican officeholder in Missouri, including Roy Blunt, as well as Mitt Romney, denounced Todd Akin. McCaskill was able to use that devastatingly against him. He also had virtually no money to fight back.  It's why myself, and DC Cyclone, and some others, always discounted any chance Akin could win, even when some "polls" were saying otherwise.  

                So yep, maybe Akin only won this by a close margin, or maybe he even barely lost, but who cares. You're telling me the the Republicans are going to nominate someone, by committee, who is denounced by all of his fellow(or her fellow) Republican officeholders. If that's your definition of a "toxic" Republican, than yeah, I agree, the Dems can win this seat. But that is supremely unlikely to happen, especially without a primary.

                And as far as spending $100,000, so the Dem party has this kind of money to spend on a total lost cause? Because I don't see how this is anything else.

                •  I think the argument there is that (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  it's not so completely, thoroughly Republican that it will vote for just anyone with an "R" next to his or her name--like those counties in Illinois that voted for Alan Keyes in 2004 when he, you know, lived in Maryland.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:39:00 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  So for all my bluster... (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bjssp, BeloitDem, bumiputera, MichaelNY

                    I did think of one scenario where the Republicans could lose this seat. I always forget about the "disgruntled independent" scenario, which lost the Republicans Bill Owen's current seat in 2009 that they otherwise clearly would have won.

                    That's always a possibility when you choose by committee.

                    So maybe what I'd be in favor of here is running a viable candidate for the Dems and seeing what shakes out. If the Republicans end up with the candidate I assume they will, and there's no sign of an independent, than I wouldn't favor spending a dime. But maybe you have a situation where the Republican vote is divided - then it might be a nice (if temporary) pick-up opportunity.

                •  The only reason they all denounced Akin (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Was because there was an outside chance they could force him off the ballot. They were stuck with Mourdock no matter what.

                  24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                  by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 04:22:21 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Even if Akin did win it (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Marcus Graly, MichaelNY

              Our ideal Democrat in the district would probably be to the right of Senator McCaskill, no? Not saying it's at all likely, but there's probably about a 1 percent chance.

              Other alternate ideal situation: an articulate progressive who will get crushed, but spread good ideas in a way that relates to the district to help move the Overton window a bit.

              How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

              by gabjoh on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:32:28 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  It's redder than MS-1 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY
        •  And there is nothing ancestrally D here (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8
        •  MS01 was a perfect storm (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          You had a general anti-GOP mood/atmosphere which lowered party morale.

          The GOP had divisive primary between two different regions of the district. The wounds never really healed.

          Whereas the Dems had a higher turnout primary and despite the close nature of the primary race, both sides came together.

          So the big questions:

           Are there any dems from the state legislature that live in the district?

          Also are there really enough conservadems left in the area that are still willing to support their party for this election?

          "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

          by lordpet8 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:32:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  answering big questions (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            at least 3 state legislators and maybe one Senator from MO8. They're not exactly in the most ideal parts of the district for a candidacy, but they exist.

            And the Dems who won on the MO Level ranged 39% to 48% in MO8. So that's a few points ahead of the likely Obama result..

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:52:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  The only way Republicans are going to win IL-2 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...is if Mel Reynolds or some other politically toxic Democrat somehow wins the primary.

        Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:30:50 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Filing deadlines on the other side of fiscal cliff (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Can Dems play their cards well enough over the next 2-3 months to make a big difference in any types of red seats?  I wouldn't bet on it, but thought I'd ask the crowd here.

  •  Hillary 2016 (4+ / 0-)

    I posted THIS LINK last night on Hillary's entrance into 2016.

    The article mentioned 2 videos, one a glossy tribute to HRC from a bunch of world leaders and another a message from BHO.

    Both can be found in the second video at the link HERE if anyone is interested. I personally loved it.

    21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:31:07 AM PST

    •  Plus, Lieberman does standup! (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geoneb, KingofSpades, jncca, MichaelNY
      After Olmert’s session was over, the night concluded with, and I am not making this up, Joseph Lieberman, the soon-to-be-retired senator from Connecticut, and Yossi Vardi, the Israeli digital entrepreneur, doing stand-up comedy onstage. I will spare you the details—even though no one called Chatham House Rules—but suffice to say that Joe Lieberman telling dirty jokes involving pickles is not necessarily the experience of a lifetime.
  •  MO-8: One less moderate in the ranks (5+ / 0-)

    Emerson has a fairly conservative record, but is a moderate in the Lugar sense. She was the only Republican to take a trip to Selma that several members of Congress made and I always remember her House floor speech about it.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:55:57 AM PST

  •  NY-St.Sen. - impact on Gov Cuomo Pres ambitions (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, KingofSpades, WisJohn, gabjoh

    If Governor Cuomo is unable to convince state senators elected as Democrats to actually caucus with the NY state senate Democrats, how can anyone take him seriously if he runs for President?  What powers of persuasion and leadership would he be able to claim he has - if in his own backyard he is a eunuch.  I for one here in PA would assume he is a nobody if he cannot even lead members of his own party in his own legislature.  

  •  Revised 2014 Senate Rankings (10+ / 0-)

    As good economic news comes in, starting to think more and more that 2014 might be a little to no change year across the board.

    DEM SEATS

    Tossup/Tilt R

    SD (Johnson) - R+10 (Johnson is popular, but Rounds is more so)

    Tossup/Tilt D

    AK (Begich) - R+12 (Begich well over 50% approval)
    AR (Pryor) - R+14 (Pryor over 50% approval)
    LA (Landrieu) - R+12 (Landrieu over 50% approval)
    MT (Baucus) - R+7 (Baucus led Generic R by 3 in PPP poll)
    NC (Hagan) - R+4 (Hagan led Generic R by 3 in PPP poll)
    WV (Rockefeller) - R+13 (Capito in for a teabagging)

    Lean D

    CO (Udall) - D+1 (Udall led Generic R by 8 in PPP poll)
    IA (Harkin) - D+1 (Harkin led Generic R by 8 in PPP poll)
    MN (Franken) - D+2 (Franken led Generic R by 6 in PPP poll)
    NH (Shaheen) - D+1 (Shaheen led Generic R by 9 in PPP poll)

    Likely D

    MI (Levin) - D+4 (possible retirement)
    OR (Merkley) - D+5 (Merkley not popular, but OR too blue)

    REPUBLICAN SEATS

    Likely R

    ME (Collins) - D+5 (possible teabagging)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:23:26 AM PST

    •  I think that's a fair list, (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, spiderdem, madmojo, MichaelNY

      except that I think Hagan belongs in the Lean D category. She's not popular according to PPP, but not particularly unpopular. Oddly enough, there's a big split between popular, unpopular, and no opinion for her, even after all of this time, and she seemed to become less popular as the election neared, for whatever reason. But the state is trending our away, she seems like a good fit, and she isn't knee deep in scandal. She can't coast, but if she runs a good campaign, she should win fairly easily.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:31:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's hard for me to see WV and AK as being on (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, spiderdem, itskevin, jncca, bfen, MichaelNY

      the good side of toss-up, and SD I would put at lean R, but other than those I don't think I disagree with anything here. Which is more optimistic than I felt even a few weeks ago.

    •  Looks exactly right (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, madmojo, MichaelNY

      If Capito survives the Tea party, I'd put that as Tilt or maybe even likely R, but I agree that I think she's not going to make it out of the primary.

      This is exactly what you'd expect in a neutral year, by the way, which is what 2014 is looking like right now.

      •  We have no freakin idea what 2014 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem

        will look like. So starting out with a baseline based on the idea of a neutral year is a good idea, but saying anything is "what 2014 is looking like right now" is, in my opinion, meaningless. 2014 is looking like 2 years from now right now, and that's all we can reliably predict about it.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:26:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  looks about right (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, MichaelNY

      I'd put WV at tilt R, I think SMC is still favored to win the primary.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:54:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Where (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      are you getting these approval numbers? I could only find ones for Landrieu and ones form 2010 for some others.

      We only think nothing goes without saying.

      by Hamtree on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:19:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Thats pretty right but... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I would put West Virginia as pure toss-up, cause I have a feeling Jay Rock is probably is gonna call quits, based on what I've read.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 03:23:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Clarification (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Pryor is not over 50 percent approval statewide.

  •  Obama and Romney aides discuss 2012 election (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, itskevin, MichaelNY

    I think this is the traditional post-election event at the Kennedy Institute of Politics at Harvard.  

    The audio of the event has been released.

    link

  •  SF Presidential Vote Diary Preview (9+ / 0-)

    So, I went a little nuts last night, and spent a great deal of time trying to learn how to operate QGIS to make some San Francisco maps using 2012 political data.  QGIS is a son of a bitch to operate, but at the end, I got what I wanted.  Here is a map of San Francisco, with which precincts voted for Romney more than the city average using the two party share of the vote (Romney city average = 13.496%)

    Unsurprisingly, Romney tended to do better in the western and Northern parts of the city.

    P.S. QGIS is a pain in the ass to operate.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:38:26 AM PST

    •  Talk about Cloogy. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Daman09

      QGIS is cloogy, annoying and not very straight forward compared to ESRI products, but you get what you pay for. Mapwindow is more straight forward but has less functionality.
       My only suggestion with QGIS is that creating a spatial database in PostgreSQL with PostGIS is worth the effort.

      •  Yeah, Now that I've gone through the process (0+ / 0-)

        I'll likely stick with QGIS, but my god, I had to jump through so many hoops.

        Anyway, the reason I used QGIS was because it looks like it makes BEAUTIFUL maps, especially this Massachusetts senate race one: http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        I already had Inkscape, and thought that QGIS would similarly be straight forward.  Boy was I wrong.

        BTW, if anyone want's to give me some pointers on how to make my map look more like that MA-SEN one (Thinner district lines,  etc), feel free to send me a PM, god knows it will probably take me another four hours to get that figured out.

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Daman09 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:09:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Here is a scaled view of that map (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacques Kallis, jncca, Inoljt, MichaelNY

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:35:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  President supports DWS for another term at DNC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    link.

    I would have preferred David Plouffe or someone from OFA. And maybe that will happen after the 2014 midterms.

    But I think it's hard to argue DWS doesnt deserve another term.

  •  Didn't Romney get a higher percentage in GA-09? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The margin over Obama is probably narrower than UT-1 though.

  •  Added (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, MichaelNY

    I added the new districts to my spreadsheet.

    Bill Enyart is now in an even district, and Duffy and Ribble are in R+ PVIs still.

    Michigan didn't give us any better news, with Upton being the Republican most likely to end up in D+ territory instead being at R+1 after Obama suffered a bit of a relative drop from 2008.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:17:58 AM PST

  •  PA-Electoral College (8+ / 0-)

    Yet again, St. Sen. Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi (R) wants to rig Pennsylvania's electoral vote to help the GOP:

    Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi says frustrated Pennsylvania supporters of Mitt Romney deserve a more equitable way of counting presidential votes. He’s pushing once again to break up the state’s electoral college vote.

    But instead of determining the votes by congressional district, they would be allocated according to percentage of the popular vote, plus two for the statewide winner.

    “Currently, Pennsylvania uses a winner-take-all system of awarding electoral votes.  My legislation would allocate electoral votes proportionately,” Pileggi wrote in a cosponsorship memo. “This advantage of this system is clear: It much more accurately reflects the will of the voters in our state.”

    Under that system, Barack Obama would have won 12 of Pa.’s electoral college votes and 8 for Romney. That’s a net advantage of 4 EC votes for Obama versus the net 20 advantage Pa. gave him on election day.

    •  Oh the irony (0+ / 0-)

      The rural areas in PA would get ignored even more, and the GOP nominee would have to moderate their positions (social at least) even further to appeal to Philly suburbs where all the votes are.

      I imagine Comcast and other media outlets will spend $10 trillion to block this.  I mean even in a year like 2012 the presidential ads in PA were still lucrative to the media owners.  Imagine if PA becomes a 5 EV swing state, we'll get as much attention as New Hampshire or Iowa.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:45:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  PA in general would just get ignored. (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, Skaje, Adam B, pademocrat, askew, MichaelNY

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:48:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  We would think (0+ / 0-)

          But people love to spend money in the Philly media market.  God knows why anyone thinks DE-NJ-PA are in play for Prez but the money still flies in.

          It would be intriguing to see how this changed strategies  Imagine a Romney rally in Philadelphia?

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:01:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  that expensive to move the equivalent of (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, MichaelNY

            Montana's electoral votes?  Doubtful.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:04:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'd agree (0+ / 0-)

              Except I don't think logic applies to media ad spending.  i think we saw with romney there comes a point where you just throw money at where people live even with no chance of winning.

              Logically we should have seen a penny spent in Philly in 2008 but there was plenty.

              I'd have to read the specifics of the law, but i fail to see how even 3 EV's would be at stake in reality.  You assume Dems end up with a floor of 50% of the 2 vote share.  The GOP I'd say has a floor of 43%.  So it's basically the difference between 11-9 and 12-8 each cycle, assuming people live in a reality where PA is a blue state.  If the GOP had any chance of winning PA any time soon this wouldn't be a proposal.

              PA would actually be less meaningful than any other state.  Crazy.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:11:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  No ... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            ... you'd still see Dems in Philly to promote turnout, but with many fewer EVs at stake.

    •  heh (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tqycolumbia, uclabruin18, MichaelNY

      At the national level, I would prefer that to keeping the electoral college as is. There would actually be a reason to campaign in CA, NY, TX, etc.

      For a blue state to do that unilaterally, no thanks.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:48:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  this is actually the way I support distributing (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, MichaelNY

      electoral votes nationwide.  But I don't support it in only one state.  It has to be all 50 or 0.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:52:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe if it were mathematically proportional (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, askew, MichaelNY

        to the popular vote, or at least not determined by the actual congressional lines.  It's bad enough that gerrymandering warps the composition of the House; we don't need it determining the Presidency as well.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:59:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well the upside (0+ / 0-)

          is that Everyone would begin to understand the importance of re-apportionment/re-districting, which is a high-level goal we all have.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:05:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah going by CD is insane (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY

          Obama only won 6 or 7 of Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts.

          I actually would be cool with some kind of proportional allocation of EV by popular vote in each state, assuming all 50 do that.  Would be reminiscent of the 2008 primaries, where certain percentage marks would be the difference between delegate allocation.  A lot of small states would still get ignored (Iowa would almost always go 3-3, and New Hampshire 2-2), but we would see added competitiveness in states where an EV can be won by simply not getting blown out so bad (Dems could attempt to keep Arkansas at 3-3, rather than risk getting blown out 2-4).  And of course there would be a huge campaign in California.  Republicans could not allow the state to go 33-22 as it would have this past election, not when Texas would only be going 22-16 for them.  That would be an alternative to simply going pure NPV, if people are concerned about the mechanics of doing a nationwide recount in the event of a very close national vote.

          •  Seems like it's just easier to just eliminate (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, tietack, MichaelNY

            the Electoral College. Nothing against you, but I don't understand why proportional allocation is supposed to be better than a pure national popular vote.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:27:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  the electoral college could work (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              in situations where no candidate wins a majority of the popular vote... as sort of a tiebreaker without the cost of running another election

              The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

              by RBH on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:57:15 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Not saying it is (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              just that it's an alternative that may be more palatable to Republicans.  And it does address one concern I hear occasionally (that a close national vote would induce chaos in the attempt to do a full national recount).  In any case, the only proposal that's actually moving forward is the NPV interstate compact, so we might as well just keep pushing that one.

              •  No (0+ / 0-)

                We should backpedal on it immediately.  It's all Dem-leaning states voting to do proportional Ev's while all the GOP states aren't.  It is a bad bad idea in it's present form.  

                The 270 EV limit is a bad measure, it seemed smart in the beginning.  But the reality is that if GOP controlled Obama states like OH/FL/GA/VA/NC all voted to do NPVIC tomorrow, and then a few GOP states like OK/UT/TN did so as well, then PA would actually put NPVIC into place (or close to it) for 2016.  

                Which would give Jeb Bush the presidency even if Democrats nominated Jesus.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:06:34 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Shouldn't we then push for some sort of (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, Skaje, MichaelNY

                uniform standards for counting votes?

                I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

                by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:20:04 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  he wants to do it proportional to the popular vote (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          unless i'm misreading the article.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:51:47 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  He wants Republican voters in PA (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ramesh, Inoljt, MichaelNY

      to be represented on the Presidential level?

      He should pass the NPV compact!

      •  Oh wait, that would also mean Democrats in MS (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ramesh, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        would also get represented on the Presidential level. Nevermind :p

      •  That's the last thing we want (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But yes it should be the first thing he'd try.  Way more political cover.  Most of the NPV compact states are dem leaning so it's just an EV giveaway to the GOP.

        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

        by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:41:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  ... (5+ / 0-)

          The NPV compact would only be legally binding if it was in force in states equaling at least 270 EVs.

          •  I'm aware (0+ / 0-)

            That's the point.  If 270 EV's from states that mostly vote Dem go proportional.  It is very bad for Dems right now.    very very very bad.  

            The 270 EV limit is useless if the 270 votes are all from dem states.  Heck if the GOP was smart they'd have NC/GA/FL/VA all pass it right now and try to turn the idea on dems.  A conversation for another forum....

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:56:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  If it passed, the votes would not go proportional (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh, MichaelNY

              All of the EVs from the states that were members of the compact would go to the NPV winner, guaranteeing victory.

              You can argue that e have a structural advantage in the Electoral College and therefore NPV is to our advantage, or you can argue that a recount situation would be hell since the states not in the compact would not be obligated to do a recount, and you can argue that voter suppression in red states makes the measure somewhat dubious. But your argument here doesn't really add up.

              •  correction (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                that we have a structural advantage in the Electoral College and therefore NPV is NOT to our advantage

                •  Right (0+ / 0-)

                  that's what I'm arguing.  There's absolutley no benefit to Dems of using the NPV.  There's a chance the GOP can win the NPV in a given year.  There isn't a chance the GOP can win Washington DC or California.

                  Basically Dems are ceding ground for no real reason.  Dems have way more EV paths to victory than the GOP.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:09:40 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The flipside (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen

                    is more Democratic voters in Places like California and New York would turn out.

                    •  I wonder if that's true (0+ / 0-)

                      Obviously from my tone you can tell I have more faith in the Bush family to get more votes out of FL/TX than i do the Cuomo/Clinton's getting more votes in NY/CA.

                      I understand the goal of every vote counts and each side has it's drawbacks, but when a group of states votes to cede it's voting outcome to the country as w hole and they are decidedly dem-leaning, I'm not enthused even if it drives up turnout a small amount (my personal belief is that it doesn't even do that).

                      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                      by rdw72777 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:48:11 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  Depends whether you want democracy (0+ / 0-)

                    or consider it more important for the Democrats to win, even when they lose the popular vote. I know which side of that argument I'm on.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 12:48:15 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  Moron. (0+ / 0-)

      20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

      by aggou on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 06:53:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fitzpatrick, Dent, Gerlach and Meehan (0+ / 0-)

      Would not like this arrangement.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 04:27:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL8 (7+ / 0-)

    I was surprised to see Obama win it by 16 given that Duckworth won by just 9.5. I figured that Walsh's ceiling would be Romney's number, but there were apparently thousands of Obama-Walsh voters. It would be interesting to see why they voted the way they did. Does IL8 just have an inordinate number of people who like gridlock for the sake of gridlock?

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:31:21 AM PST

    •  IL-8 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ancestrally Republican.  
      and Duckworth also just isn't that strong.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:53:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hrm (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JDJase, JBraden, MichaelNY

        Duckworth had something like $4 million in negative ads run against her in this district. Obama had $0.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 04:03:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  True (0+ / 0-)

          But I'm not that impressed with her.
          She's got a great profile, but I didn't really like her DNC speech, I've heard she isn't that bright, and she's now underperformed twice (The old district she ran for is similar to Bean's, and she beat an incumbent while Duckworth lost the open seat).

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 04:42:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If we're going to start comparing her to Bean (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            their ideological differences must be pointed out.  Melissa Bean leaned right on tax and spend issues, one of the most conservative non-Southern (or from Idaho) Reps we had during our time in the majority.  Duckworth seems to be an across-the-board liberal.  There is a strong correlation to conservative Democrats outperforming the top of the ticket, and more liberal Democrats underperforming, especially in competitive seats.

            Duckworth didn't do as well as Bean because Republicans didn't vote for the former the way they did for the latter.

          •  C'mon (7+ / 0-)

            This kind of baseless chatter ("I've heard she isn't that bright") - we're better than that.

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 05:01:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've heard it from people who would know, though (0+ / 0-)

              But I can stop saying it if you like.

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:14:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Not to be rude, but when making this sort of claim (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack, sawolf, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

                name names or shut up. Based on where she started and where she is now, I'd say the thesis of her not being that bright is pretty lacking in support.

              •  Baseless rumors frequently hurt good people (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, MichaelNY

                If there is substance behind the allegation, there will be a report on it. If you believe it to be true, search for it. Find a link. If you do find such a link, share it.

                Otherwise, spreading such rumors are something best left for Tea Party types. Such rumors frequently backfire even in dirty campaigns today, with the level of "fact checking" that is done these days.

                I hope; therefore, I can live.

                by tietack on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:29:24 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I've also "heard" lots of things (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, BeloitDem, tietack, MichaelNY

                Some turn out to be true, many turn out to be false. What the other commenters said in response is on point. All claims, but particularly those that go against known facts, require solid evidence. That's our ethos, and it applies to every argument.

                And my remarks don't apply only to what you said, but to any similar claim about what people may have "heard."

                Political Director, Daily Kos

                by David Nir on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:47:25 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Bean beat a crusty incumbent (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            kind of a reverse Paul Kanjorski deal.

            also, Bean's district had parts of Lake County experiencing rapid Hispanic growth.

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:26:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Duckworth is smarter than many of us at DKE (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem, MichaelNY

            From her wikipeida profile

            Duckworth was working towards a Ph.D. in political science at Northern Illinois University with research interests in the political economy and public health in southeast Asia when she was deployed to Iraq in 2004.
            snip
            received a Master of Arts in international affairs from George Washington University.[13]
            Questioning Duckworth's intelligence is almost as bad as the R Senators who question the intelligence of Rhodes Scholars like Susan Rice.

            I hope; therefore, I can live.

            by tietack on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:08:28 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Obama and Walsh were both incumbents (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      and we know there's some level of incumbency effect, so they could be incumbent-favoring voters in general, and even if Obama wasn't the incumbent, it's not too surprising when a down-ticket incumbent out-performs the top of the ticket.  Of course, Walsh made an idiot of himself, but even so.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:08:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Obama still had some home-state appeal (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, JBraden, MichaelNY

      I can imagine plenty of old-school Republicans in that part of Illinois who voted Obama on home-state appeal, yet went with Walsh simply because they're used to voting for Republicans for Congress.

      In any case, Walsh also had some money spent on his behalf towards the end, and despite the hopelessness of his situation he at least tried to campaign.  That correlated with the time a lot of people downgraded IL-08 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem.

      I think Duckworth will hold down the district just fine from here on out.

  •  The new CDs drop the correlation with 2008 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, David Jarman, jncca, MichaelNY

    all the way down to 0.98.  The best-fit line is now:

    Obama12 = 1.04*Obama08 - 3.78.
    Obama over-performed by the most in:
    FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    6.30%
    AK-AL    Young, Don    5.96%
    FL-26    Garcia, Joe    5.36%
    FL-25    Diaz-Balart, Mario    5.11%
    CA-46    Sanchez, Loretta    4.50%
    LA-01    Scalise, Steve    4.44%
    LA-06    Cassidy, Bill    3.74%
    CA-41    Takano, Mark    3.41%
    LA-02    Richmond, Cedric    3.39%
    FL-09    Grayson, Alan    3.39%
    GA-13    Scott, David    3.33%
    LA-05    Alexander, Rodney    3.31%
    FL-20    Hastings, Alcee    2.66%
    SC-02    Wilson, Joe    2.35%
    CA-31    Miller, Gary    2.23%
    GA-02    Bishop, Sanford    2.22%
    OK-05    Lankford, James    2.15%
    GA-08    Scott, Austin    2.07%
    LA-04    Fleming, John    2.00%
    GA-12    Barrow, John    1.93%
    NV-01    Titus, Dina    1.92%
    VA-11    Connolly, Gerry    1.91%
    SC-05    Mulvaney, Mick    1.85%
    CA-06    Matsui, Doris    1.82%
    VA-04    Forbes, Randy    1.80%
    VA-02    Rigell, Scott    1.76%
    SC-06    Clyburn, Jim    1.76%
    FL-24    Wilson, Frederica    1.73%
    OK-03    Lucas, Frank    1.70%
    GA-07    Woodall, Rob    1.67%
    WI-04    Moore, Gwen    1.61%
    CA-08    Cook, Paul    1.61%
    GA-03    Westmoreland, Lynn    1.54%
    FL-05    Brown, Corrine    1.51%
    IL-04    Gutierrez, Luis    1.51%
    but under-performed it by the most in:
    KY-05    Rogers, Hal    -6.06%
    WI-08    Ribble, Reid    -5.03%
    IL-06    Roskam, Peter    -4.50%
    IL-10    Schneider, Brad    -4.15%
    MT-AL    Daines, Steve    -4.09%
    WI-07    Duffy, Sean    -3.96%
    ND-AL    Cramer, Kevin    -3.74%
    MI-02    Huizenga, Bill    -3.51%
    WI-03    Kind, Ron    -3.36%
    IL-12    Enyart, William    -3.33%
    MI-06    Upton, Fred    -3.11%
    MI-01    Benishek, Dan    -3.11%
    CT-04    Himes, Jim    -3.06%
    NV-02    Amodei, Mark    -3.00%
    VA-09    Griffith, Morgan    -2.95%
    SD-AL    Noem, Kristi    -2.91%
    MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    -2.74%
    IL-08    Duckworth, Tammy    -2.70%
    KY-01    Whitfield, Ed    -2.59%
    NV-03    Heck, Joe    -2.53%
    IL-05    Quigley, Mike    -2.39%
    FL-06    DeSantis, Ron    -2.25%
    IL-09    Schakowsky, Jan    -2.23%
    WY-AL    Lummis, Cynthia    -2.15%
    WI-05    Sensenbrenner, Jim    -2.05%
    WI-06    Petri, Tom    -1.96%
    DE-AL    Carney, John    -1.95%
    MI-11    Bentivolio, Kerry    -1.94%
    CT-01    Larson, John    -1.92%
    FL-18    Murphy, Patrick    -1.91%
    IN-07    Carson, Andre    -1.81%
    FL-21    Deutch, Ted    -1.79%
    IL-07    Davis, Danny    -1.77%
    WI-01    Ryan, Paul    -1.76%
    ID-02    Simpson, Mike    -1.70%
    CT-02    Courtney, Joe    -1.63%
    FL-19    Radel, Trey    -1.59%
    MI-07    Walberg, Tim    -1.59%
    CA-45    Campbell, John    -1.57%
    CA-48    Rohrabacher, Dana    -1.53%
    FL-16    Buchanan, Vern    -1.50%
    Interesting that the two Nevada seats end up there.  Looking at uniform swing is minimally different.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:32:49 AM PST

    •  Adding a few CDs wwmiv has numbers for (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, wwmiv, CF of Aus, MichaelNY

      very slightly changes the best-fit line (now Obama12 = 1.05*Obama08-4.08, and once again a uniform swing of -1.9% is very close).  Aside from a few changes on the bottom of those lists, the main additions are Obama's strong under-performances in:

      UT-01    Rob Bishop (R)    -6.67%
      TX-31    John Carter (R)    -1.52%
      and his strong over-performances in:
      TX-09    Al Green (D)    3.08%
      TX-20    Joaquin Castro (D)    2.26%
      CA-01    Doug La Malfa (R)    1.65%
      CA-36    Raul Ruiz (D)    1.50%.
      Notably, Obama got 50.3% in TX-23, in 2008, and 48.6% in 2012--very close to the national swing, and verifying that Gallego was one of the top Democratic performers of the cycle (since he wasn't brought along by an Obama swing from last time; it's still basically an R+3 district).  

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:58:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's also interesting that Obama under-performed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in so many WI districts more than he under-performed in WI-01.  So is this a Ryan home state effect with a weird distribution?  An effect of Romney contesting the state with particular focus?  Consistent areas with some kind of national trend?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:04:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, jncca, MichaelNY

        I think that the same underperformance issues related to Appalachia are happening here (in addition to MI-1 and the Iron Range) as well to a smaller degree because the industry here is based on extraction.

        22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:10:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  More succinct version of what I said. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:19:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  These aren't extractive industry areas (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

          unless you count the forestry industry, which is debatable due to its renewable nature. WI-07 has a demonstrated Republican trend, but WI-08 and WI-03 do not (Obama's 2008 numbers in both were excellent compared to Kerry).

          As for WI-01, it's not an elastic district, so R-R had a lower ceiling there compared to the other districts.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02. "You're damn right we're making a difference!" - Senator-Elect Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin)

          by fearlessfred14 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:23:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Do you think Duffy's there for a while? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:30:50 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  and southern Oregon (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

          which continues to trend Republican, outside of Jackson County.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:26:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I would say WI-01 is more inelastic (4+ / 0-)

        It has a lot more durable partisans in places like Janesville, Racine, and Kenosha for Dems and the Circle of Ignorance exurbs for GOP.  In contrast, the portions up north are more elastic (hence why an 08 map for WI can look so different than a 10 map)

        Social Democrat, WI-05

        by glame on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:14:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Well, look at upstate Wisconsin (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, MichaelNY

        (Or whatever the local term is for it.)

        Demographically, you get some of the same set as you do in the Iron Range. This is blue-collar country, very white, very rural, generally unionized but resource extraction (mining and logging) are staple industries. At the local level, it tends to be Democratic; at the congressional level, it can be swingy; at the presidential level, when you've got a black president (not that I think race is necessarily a defining issue here, but there are intangibles) from a city whose demeanor is decidedly white-collar and whose administration is perceived as being anti-resource extraction in many quarters, the main draw is just labor, which is a stronger force in politics in Minnesota than it is in Wisconsin, IMO. On other issues, these voters might think someone like Rep.-elect Nolan shares their values, but they're going to cast a jaundiced eye toward any Democratic presidential candidate whose name doesn't rhyme with Will Flinton.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:17:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  WI-1 is far less elastic than WI-7 or 8. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fearlessfred14
  •  Has anyone read Gelman's book (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Red State Blue State, as opposed to his posts?

    For whatever reason, I decided to look into the rich Democrats/red state moocher talk this weekend. I feel as though I am missing something or conflating educational status and income/wealth, because it really does seem like there's been a trend to Democrats with certain demographics, even if there's still an advantage to Republicans.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:35:47 AM PST

  •  Pres-by-CD: WI-07 (3+ / 0-)

    I feel fairly confident in saying that Obama would have won the old iteration of WI-07.

    Old WI-07
    New WI-07 (and rest of state)

    The biggest change to the map, IMO, was moving the college county of Portage out of 7 and into 3. The next biggest change was moving the WI Bachmann-land county of Saint Croix from 3 to 7. Doing some rough, rounding calculations, if each county was put back into its old district, 3 would still be safely in Obama's column, but 7 would only have Obama trailing by 470 votes (181476-Romney, 181006-Obama).

    On to Monroe, Chippewa and Wood Counties, which are split between 3 and 7. Obama lost all of them. However, he won the portions of each that are in 3. Chippewa and Wood used to be entirely in 7, and Monroe was entirely in 3. Under the old lines, these counties would have added votes to Obama's totals.

    These changes to 7 (along with all the additions to it from WI-08) delivered it to Romney. Pat Kreitlow probably still would have lost under the old lines, but by less, but Obama would have won 7 ought-right.

    I hope all of this makes sense to you.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

    by WisJohn on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 11:48:08 AM PST

  •  One remarkable thing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, WisJohn, MichaelNY

    the redistricting has done is that mostly likely Obama won less than half of the nation's CDs.

    Romney - Dem districts (8) : AZ01 AZ02 UT04 MN06 GA12 NC07 FL18 WV03. And that is it.

    Confirmed or most likely Obama - Rep districts (11): CA10 CA31 NV03 MN02 MN03 IA03 FL13 FL27 NJ02 NY19 VA02

    Possible Obama - Rep districts (12) CA25 CO06 PA08 NJ03 NY02 NY11 and CA21 NY22 PA06 PA07 PA15 WA08. The first 6 CDs are better than even odds, while the latter 6 are less likely O-R districts.

    All added up, Obama carried up to 216 CDs, (201 - 8 + 23), 2 short of a majority. If we had a UK style parliamentary election under the current map, we would end up with Prime Minister Romney!

    •  Just looked at (0+ / 0-)

      the statements of votes from Bexar county TX and LA county CA.

      Actually, Obama lost Bexar portion of TX23 by more than 12K votes. This makes TX23 a Romney - D district.

      Also CA25 is won by Romney too. Off the possible Obama - R district list.

      That said, PBO carried at most 214 CDs. If all the states were using the Maine formula, i.e. 2 EVs for statewide winner, 1 EV for winner in each CD, the best PBO would get is a tie in the Electoral College, 269 votes (214 CD-wide EVs + 52 statewide EVs for 26 state wins + 3 EVs from DC).

      No wonder that House Republicans feel much less political pressure to deal with this Administration. I guess if we ever go over the cliff and majority of all voters blame the House leadership,  majority of the voters in the R represented districts will blame the President. The R reps will be severely punished (politically, say, a primary challenge), more because they yield too much than because they are inflexible to get any deal.

  •  while I've been waiting for class to start (6+ / 0-)

    I drew a Nevada map that would've made a 3-1 split more likely:

    Photobucket

    Clark is the only county split, and its split 4 ways.  The purple 3rd district is 56.5% Obama/53.4% Dem average, making it slightly better going by Obama's numbers than Horsford's 4th district, stretching from Carson City to North Las Vegas.  It is also the most Hispanic, at 32.6% by total population.  The blue 1st and red 4th are nearly identical in Obama percentages, with the 1st at 58.8% Obama/57.3% Dem average, and the 4th in the southern suburbs at 58.5% Obama/54.8% Dem average.  I suppose in a really bad year we'd have the potential to lose the 3rd and 4th, but I think we'd hold on to the 1st, which is based in Vegas proper.

    The green 2nd district Obama lost by a little under 1700 votes.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:41:59 PM PST

  •  anyone know why some of the Pres results by CD (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, Skaje

    from the old SSP website aren't visible anymore? It stops halfway through Pennsylvania for me...

    http://www.swingstateproject.com/...

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 12:59:45 PM PST

  •  California legislature officially sworn in (5+ / 0-)

    There is some difference in the tone of the leadership, Steinberg was firm in stating that Democrats shouldn't be so afraid of overreaching that they don't utilize the 2/3rds. Perez in the Assembly talked a lot about education, but didn't really mention the 2/3rds.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:27:56 PM PST

    •  The chances of keeping 2/3rds in 2014 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, James Allen, MichaelNY

      Steinberg is pretty much guaranteed a 2/3rds majority until the end of the decade. The Assembly can very easily lose its supermajority, since it wasn't even supposed to be in the cards this cycle.

      22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

      by kurykh on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:37:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Of course (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Steinberg is gone in 2014 so who do you think takes over? Does de Leon get it until 2018 and then pass it off to someone from the new 12-year term class?

        •  If de Leon becomes pro tem (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          the Assembly speaker will have to be from NorCal. It is an unwritten rule that the speaker and the president pro tem be from opposite ends of the state. Right now, the only NorCal assembly Dems in leadership are Nora Campos (who seems to like her pro tem gig), Kevin Mullin, and Phil Ting.

          Ricardo Lara might give de Leon a run for his money. So can Marty Block or even Richard Roth (if the Dems are daring enough).

          22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

          by kurykh on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:10:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Revised 2013-2014 Governor Rankings (6+ / 0-)

    Still think we have a great shot to gain overall.  Possibly as many as 4 or 5.  We only won the easy ones in 2010.

    DEM SEATS

    Tossup/Tilt D

    AR (OPEN) - R+14 (Dustin McDaniel a big-time candidate)

    Likely D

    CO (Hickenloper) - D+1 (up 54-33 on Generic R per PPP)
    CT (Malloy) - D+7 (up 48-37 on Generic R per PPP)
    IL (Quinn) - D+8 (safe if Quinn is not the nominee)
    NH (Hassan) - D+1 (13-point open seat win in 2012)
    MN (Dayton) - D+2 (up 51-38 on Generic R per PPP)
    OR (Kitzhaber) - D+5 (OR too blue to beat incumbent)
    RI (Chafee) - D+11 (3-way is Republicans' only hope)

    REPUBLICAN SEATS

    Lean D

    ME (LePage) - D+5 (down 49-41 to Generic D per PPP)
    PA (Corbett) - D+1 (down 47-37 to Generic D per PPP)

    Tossup/Tilt D

    FL (Scott) - R+2 (down 48-44 to Generic D per PPP)
    VA (OPEN) - R+0 (Crazy Cooch should be easy mark)

    Tossup/Tilt R

    OH (Kasich) - R+1 (up 44-43 over Generic D per PPP)

    Lean R

    IA (Branstad) - D+1 (up 49-40 over Generic D per PPP)
    MI (Snyder) - D+4 (up 47-41 over Generic D per PPP)
    NM (Martinez) - D+4 (approval over 50% but blue state)
    WI (Walker) - D+2 (up 50-43 over Generic D per PPP)

    Likely R

    AZ (OPEN) - R+7 (somehow AZ PVI has gotten worse)
    NJ (Christie) - D+6 (in the right place at the right time)
    NV (Sandoval) - D+2 (up 55-32 over Generic D per PPP)
    SC (Haley) - R+8 (sub-par approval ratings but red state)
    TX (Perry) - R+10 (only in play if Perry the nominee)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:48:17 PM PST

    •  Very good (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, MichaelNY

      Three comments

      !). I think it's possible that Corbrett recovers enough to win in 2014. I don't see LePage doing so.

      2). I think Scott is Lean D. But that's just a gut reaction.

      3). I think you're right on Ohio - surprising, considering how Kasich seemed like the most endangered incumbent for awhile.

      •  That seems to be the prevailing thought on (4+ / 0-)

        Corbett, but boy is 37% for an incumbent ugly.

        FL is really tough in a midterm.  Demographics skew old and white.  We've had years of frustration with all the non-federal statewide races.  Scott is weak enough to be beaten, and I will take a recount win.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:13:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Old and white skewing demographics (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

          are a big part of the problem in PA, too.  (Especially now that western PA is turning into West Virginia Extension.)

          I remain hopeful that Corbett will be toppled, though.  PA has never ousted an incumbent governor, but I don't think many have been as unpopular as him.  And hey, before this year we never elected a Democrat as AG, either.

    •  This list makes me wonder (5+ / 0-)

      If the CA GOP will even put up a credible challenger this year in California.  They are pretty much toast statewide at this point.  Are there any Steve Cooley types that could be a strong get for republicans (other than Cooley himself, of course).

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:11:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ahem, I wouldn't say SC-Gov is likely R (6+ / 0-)

      even the Repub SC1 says it's tossup and Haley isn't getting along all that well.  Furthermore, Sheheen represents (and has been unopposed twice in) a 55% McCain-Romney SD, which is line with the statewide toplines.

      As for AR-Gov, I would like to note that McDaniel has over a million banked from this year alone for this race.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 03:03:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am struggling to find (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        hard evidence of her unpopularity.  Only thing I found was a Winthrop University poll with her approval about dead even.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 04:00:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  SC-Gov is Tossup, WI-Gov is Lean R (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        I didn't think that was even possible, given how SC is usually a solid red state and WI is usually a blue leaning state.

        Usually, a SC-Gov race should be Safe R, but Nikki Haley has aggravated many Republicans in the South Carolina Legislature. This diary goes into great detail as to why Haley is highly vulnerable in 2014. Vincent Sheheen, a state senator, has been a very vocal opponent of Haley, and is most likely to be the 2014 SC-Gov Democratic nominee, although he hasn't announced whether or not he intends on running for Governor of South Carolina yet.

        Usually, a WI-Gov race should be Lean D, but Scott Walker has an incredible political juggernaut. Even Wisconsin's mainstream media is in the tank for Walker and his allies in the Wisconsin Legislature. Also, all of the "first-tier" Wisconsin Democrats seem to be absolutely afraid to take on Walker, however, Walker can be defeated with a strong campaign. There is no clear front-runner on the Democratic side for the 2014 race for Governor of Wisconsin at this time.

        Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 04:13:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I thought our clear savior was Lori Compas! (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 04:36:14 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Given how the WI Dem party is moribund... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            ...she might actually be our savior, believe it or not. Lori Compas is the "last resort" candidate if WI Dems can't find anyone else to run against Walker, and it's quite likely that Walker won't draw a "first-tier" challenger, such as Russ Feingold (who has reportedly told some of his friends that he wants to run for his old U.S. Senate seat), Ron Kind, Kathleen Vinehout, Tom Nelson, Peter Barca, Jon Erpenbach, etc.

            Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

            by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:19:52 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Kitzhaber is also very popular, relative. nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 04:48:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Chafee (0+ / 0-)

      You seem to be treating him as a Democrat, which is reasonable except if a Democrat runs against him.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:43:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  one D has already announced (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and more may still get in.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 06:38:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I view either a Chafee or Democratic win (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        as a Democratic seat.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 07:31:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If it's a Democrat like Caprio though (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits, MichaelNY

          It would be a downgrade from Chafee.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 10:14:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Caprio is done (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            the only confirmed candidate right now is Ernest Almonte; I don't know much about him. Treasurer Gina Raimondo is also considered to be a potential D candidate. she is kind of in the mold of Caprio (who preceded her in the position) but she strikes me as less obnoxious. that whole thing with Caprio telling Obama to take his endorsement and shove it was just his natural dickishness making its way past the filter.

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Wed Dec 05, 2012 at 04:11:10 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  On Twitter, David Jarman notes (7+ / 0-)

    What's interesting is that Latham's old district was probably the district that came closer  than any in the country to the 2000/2004/2008 results, collectively.  It went 48/49, 48/51, 53/45.  Boswell's old district was a bit more Dem-leaning, but it wasn't too far off: 49/48, 50/50, 54/44.  The new IA-03 went 54/44 for Obama.

    This area is certainly not demographically representative of the country, right?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 01:56:49 PM PST

    •  Re: Old IA-03. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Given Iowa doesn't split counties, this was easy.

      Old IA-03

      Romney: 152609~~45.00%
      Obama:  180229~~53.15%
      Others:      6265~~~1.85%

      Looks like Obama held up pretty well, relative to his national drop.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

      by WisJohn on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:25:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He dropped by about 2 points nationally and by (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        about 1 point in the old IA-03.  The old IA-04, though, was Latham's district, and the one that's usually uncannily close to the national numbers.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:32:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ok, here is Old IA-04: (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          Romney: 154273~~48.15%
          Obama:  160137~~49.98%
          Others:      5990~~~1.87%

          Pretty close to the national average. Obama <1% off N. A.

          Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

          by WisJohn on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 03:23:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  race-wise, no (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      but religiously, I wouldn't be surprised if the evangelical population was similar to the nation at least.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:31:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hope we can beat him. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 03:04:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno. (5+ / 0-)

        He's an incumbent in an even district who isn't a fluke from a wave election.  They're not the easiest people to beat.  (Although if Democrats can't figure out how to beat people like that, they'll have a pretty hard time winning back the House absent a lot of fortunate retirements and/or a wave.)

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 03:10:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  to win the house you have to pick the lowest (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, redrelic17, MichaelNY

          hanging fruit even if it is occupied by an entrenched incumbent. Remember that in 2010, the republicans defeated a few old timer incumbents who had survived 1994.

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 06:32:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  It would take a wave election or personal scandal (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          Latham isn't going to lose absent one of those two things.

          I'm a little indifferent about Boswell losing, he was a poor fundraiser this year and frankly didn't do what was needed.

          I'm sadder about Steve King getting reelected in what should've been a tougher and closer race.  I don't know the details, maybe Vilsack just didn't hammer him enough which was what I feared earlier in the year.  But it should've been much closer than it was, as toxic as King is.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:45:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Apparently people in that district (0+ / 0-)

            are OK with his extremism. I think we have to face that.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:00:05 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Or not really aware of it (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Again, I saw maybe a couple attack ads online and I have no idea how many points Vilsack put behind them, at what stage in the race (when ads were everpresent to where everyone tuned them out?), and whether King otherwise was exposed for what he is.

              Half the district was new to him, that new half is blue, and while I wouldn't have been stunned to see him win narrowly, the big margin he got just doesn't look like something that should've happened against a candidate with Vilsack's name rec and supposed political skills and fundraising ability.

              The thing is, any competent Democrat challenging King should've run significantly ahead of Obama in this district.  That didn't happen.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 01:20:21 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  which makes me wonder (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack, MichaelNY

      which district is most like the country as a whole based on demographics?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 04:50:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  AK-Sen: LG Treadwell forms exploratory committee (5+ / 0-)

    28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 02:23:55 PM PST

  •  IL-13: Dave Wasserman points out that (4+ / 0-)

    the margin here was only 1,002, when all is said and done.

    An independent candidate, John Hartman, took over 7%. He seems to be left leaning, but still cant really say who he took more votes from.

    Any thought on who would be a good candidate to run here? I dont know if Gill would be the strongest candidate in 2014. Matt Goetten should probably give it another try, hopefully along with some state rep or senator, assuming there are any Dems representing any parts of this district.

  •  Former GOP Assembly Leader recalls (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    the last time the Dems had 2/3rds control in a chamber.
    He apparently got along with the Dems pretty well as he was moderate Republican (I guess too centrist as the GOP threw him out of the leadership role in 1978)

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    "If you invested $100k for 40 years of Republican administrations you had $126k at the end, if you invested $100k for 40 years of Democratic administrations you had $3.9M at the end" -Forbes Magazine

    by lordpet8 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 03:15:45 PM PST

  •  Jo Ann Emerson (9+ / 0-)

    I really hate it when someone runs for re-election, then immediately turns around and quits for a better paying job.

  •  Serious Question (9+ / 0-)

    Why the hell are a California officials being sworn in today when California hasn't even certified the results of the election?

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 03:36:50 PM PST

  •  Retirement watch list (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    So far the only announced retirement is Shelley Moore Capito in WV-02, with IL-02 and MO-08 being vacant on Jan 3rd.

    The following races are on my own watch list:
    AR-03
    AR-04 (both sen or gov)
    CO-04
    CO-05
    CO-06 (all senate)
    FL-13 (age)
    FL-27 (age/chair term limits)
    IA-01 (sen if Harkin retires)
    IA-03
    IA-04 (both sen)
    IL-08 (sen if Durbin retires)
    IL-17 (same)
    IL-18 (gov)
    LA-06 (sen)
    MA-04 (sen if Kerry retires)
    MA-05 (same)
    MA-06 (retire)
    MA-07 (sen)
    ME-01 (sen/gov)
    ME-02 (sen/gov)
    MI-08 (admin job)
    MI-09 (age)
    MI-11 (primaried out)
    MI-14 (sen if Levin retires)
    MN-02 (sen/retire)
    MN-03 (sen)
    MN-07 (age)
    MN-08 (retire)
    MT-AL (senate run)
    NJ-01 (sen if Lautenberg retires)
    NJ-06 (same)
    NJ-12 (same)
    NY-13 (age)
    NY-25 (age)
    NC-02 (sen)
    NC-04 (age)
    NC-08 (sen)
    NC-09 (sen)
    NC-11 (sen)
    NC-13 (sen)
    OH-13 (gov)
    PA-13 (gov)
    SC-01 (sen)
    SC-04 (sen)
    SD-AL (senate)
    TN-04 (primaried)
    TX-04 (age)
    WI-01 (wingnut welfare)
    WV-01 (sen)

    Are there any worth adding or that should definitively be ruled out?

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 04:00:06 PM PST

    •  Left off GA-06 and GA-10 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      for possible senate runs.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 04:03:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Are we sure that Moore Capito is going to retire (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      from her House seat?  I'm pretty sure a candidate can run for the House and Senate simultaneously in West Virginia (unlike most other states).

      •  No kidding? (0+ / 0-)

        I didn't know that was possible anywhere.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 02:10:07 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  St. Wiki of Pedia: (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY
          During the 2010 election cycle, she was mentioned as a Republican candidate to challenge Joe Manchin for the vacated United State Senate seat of the late Robert C. Byrd. Capito ultimately decided against a senate bid, pointing out that, even though the West Virginia Legislature passed a law allowing her to run for both her House seat and the U.S. Senate, "running for two offices simultaneously is not who I am as a person. More importantly, this is not about me, but what is right for the people of West Virginia."[9]
          Don't know if that law still stands.  Interestingly, the WV legislature is Democratic (and was even more so back then).
      •  If true (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I don't think it would look very good if she did that

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 04:41:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree, but here's Wikipedia: (0+ / 0-)
          During the 2010 election cycle, she was mentioned as a Republican candidate to challenge Joe Manchin for the vacated United State Senate seat of the late Robert C. Byrd. Capito ultimately decided against a senate bid, pointing out that, even though the West Virginia Legislature passed a law allowing her to run for both her House seat and the U.S. Senate, "running for two offices simultaneously is not who I am as a person. More importantly, this is not about me, but what is right for the people of West Virginia."[9]
    •  WI-5 and WI-6 may also be retirements (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Both of those Republican incumbents, Jim Sensenbrenner (WI-5) and Tom Petri (WI-6) have been in office since the late 1970's. 2014 may be a big year in regards to retirements in Wisconsin politics: Paul Ryan (R-WI-1, wingnut welfare), Ron Kind (D-WI-3, possible WI-Gov run) Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI-5, age), and Tom Petri (R-WI-6, age) may all retire in 2014, possibly leading to open-seat races in 4 of Wisconsin's 8 congressional districts!

      Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 06:19:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dave Wasserman just posted some numbers of of SD (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Is that the last of San Diego's outstanding vote total?

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 05:14:10 PM PST

  •  House GOP: I wonder what Cantor thinks (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, MichaelNY

    of those committee moves.

    Hard to see Boehner allowing tax rate hikes with conservatives already mad at him for the committee moves.

    •  He doesn't have a choice. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, jj32, LordMike, MichaelNY

      Taxes go up if he does nothing.  And then GOP owns the middle class tax hike.

      I'll be gobsmacked if this doesn't happen - Time runs out on any grand bargain, GOP passes middle class cut extension and as part of the deal for doing so the debt ceiling trigger is put off for a year to give the new congress time to work out a grand bargain.  

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 06:58:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope you are right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        GOP just seems so angry with losing and they've become so attached to this idea of no tax rate increases ever that I feel like it wont be that easy.

        According to ABC news, their "doomsday plan" is to just pass the Bush tax cut extension for those making less than 250k. Nothing on the debt  ceiling or unemployment benefits, and presumably nothing on the sequester.

        The plan is for GOP to vote present so this popular middle class tax cut extension is passed only with  Democratic votes. Fine with me, but I worry more about the debt ceiling since I think that is the bit of leverage the House GOP does have.

  •  WI State Sen. Julie Lassa (D) rips WI GOP... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    ...over a proposal that is being pushed by Republicans wanting to make the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (Wisconsin's non-partisan state elections & ethics board) more partisan:

    What are GOP legislators and the Gov afraid of? Not only did they make changes to state laws that make it harder for Wisconsin citizens to excerise (sic) their RIGHT to vote, they re-drew legislative district boundaries to benefit their party's candidates and now they want to end the non-partisan Government Accountability Board. The GAB Board is made up of retired judges that are appointed by the Governor and act as an independent referee dealing with elections and ethics. The GOP apparently wants the GAB eliminated and replaced with partisan hacks because they don't rule in their favor 100% of the time. Very sad state of affairs where the GOP seems to be willing to do anything to keep political power even if it is at the expense of voters and our democracy.

    Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 06:08:07 PM PST

    •  WI-SD-13 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Given the fact that Republican Wisconsin State Senate Majority Leader "Big" Scott Fitzgerald is the one pushing for a more partisan GAB, I'm wondering if Big Fitz himself believes that he may be vulnerable to a serious challenge from a Democratic candidate in 2014.

      Big Fitz's state senate district is quite conservative...the Dane County portion of SD-13 is not all that liberal, and the rest of the district is solidly Republican, so it would be extremely difficult for a Democrat to actually defeat Big Fitz.

      The organizer of the recall attempt against Big Fitz several months ago, Lori Compas, was drawn out of SD-13 in redistricting, so she won't run against Big Fitz again. Some potential Democratic candidates who might consider a 2014 run against Big Fitz include Laura Cotting, a Watertown city councilwoman who ran in the 2012 AD-37 Democratic primary, Mary Arnold, the 2012 AD-37 Democratic nominee, Scott Michalak, the 2012 AD-38 Democratic nominee, Jim Grigg, the 2012 AD-39 Democratic nominee, Erin Sievert, a 2012 DNC delegate, and Tim John, who ran in the 2010 WI-Gov Democratic primary.

      Committed to making sure that Mark Kirk and Ron Johnson are shown the door in 2016!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 08:19:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama PV lead now 3.63% (6+ / 0-)

    At 50.95%.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:06:16 PM PST

  •  Romney's campaign didn't even know about the 47% (6+ / 0-)

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 07:30:24 PM PST

  •  The head of FOX News tried to get Petraeus (6+ / 0-)

    to run for president.

    The good news for Roger Ailes: I'm pretty sure Petraeus is available for a presidential run now.

  •  Mayor Bloomberg... (5+ / 0-)

    Reportedly asked Secy. Clinton to consider running for mayor of New York City (she said no). Big surprise since he's been seen as a major supporter of Christine Quinn. Story here.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:37:26 PM PST

    •  I think it was probably just a courtesy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bythesea, MichaelNY

      I can't imagine Clinton would have any interest in running for mayor. It's a pretty thankless job with all the headaches of being the governor of a large state without the same degree of authority or prestige a Governor holds.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 10:28:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Um, what? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I will give him credit for coming up with a Clinton Career Path that I'm pretty sure no one else has ever proposed, even though Clinton Career Paths are about the most over-studied topics in the world.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 08:03:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  manly men of politics (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, bythesea, bumiputera

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Dec 03, 2012 at 09:38:29 PM PST

    •  Good find (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY
      Most importantly, they make a living using words to describe changing relationships between people, which is, if you believe in evolutionary psychology, the girliest job of all time.

      28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Tue Dec 04, 2012 at 04:49:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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