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10:37 AM PT: Special Elections: We have our first two state legislative special elections following the November general election, and needless to say, Johnny Longtorso isn't missing a beat:

Alabama HD-30: This is an open Republican seat northeast of Birmingham. The candidates are attorney Beth McGlaughn for the Democrats and businessman Mack Butler for the Republicans. Don't expect anything interesting here as the district straddles deep, deep red Etowah and St. Clair Counties.

Iowa SD-22: This is also an open Republican seat, in the Des Moines suburbs. It was up in November, but the incumbent Senator, Pat Ward, passed away prior to the election, so a special election was scheduled. The candidates are attorney Desmund Adams for the Democrats and West Des Moines city council member Charles Schneider for the Republicans. The Ward/Adams race was still on the ballot last month, despite being nonbinding; Ward posthumously won 56-43.

11:07 AM PT: Pres-by-CD: We crunched presidential results for 43 new congressional districts over the weekend, and as always, thanks to everyone who's been sending in the data we need. (A reminder: You can find our complete chart here.) Forty of these districts are split across five new states:

Alabama (1 of 7: AL-01)

Missouri (4 of 8: MO-01, MO-05, MO-07 & MO-08)

Anyone who thought Democrats might have a shot at picking up the seat of resigning GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson will be disappointed by Obama's terrible performance here, dropping to a 32-66 loss to Mitt Romney, versus 38-60 against McCain in 2008.

Ohio (8 of 16: OH-01 through OH-03, OH-07, OH-10, OH-11, OH-15 & OH-16)

The power of the gerrymander really shows through: In the GOP-held districts calculated so far, Romney's performance was in a tight band, from 50.1 percent to 54.7 percent, thus showing that Republican votes were spread as efficiently as possible. Meanwhile, in the two Democratic seats we have numbers for, Obama won 70 percent in one and over 80 percent in the other. Shame on Democrats in the Ohio legislature for going along with this.

Oregon (3 of 5: OR-01, OR-03 & OR-05)

Regardless of how you feel about him, Dem Rep. Kurt Schrader gets credit for continually performing strongly in OR-05. Obama won just 51-47 there, down from 53-44, but Schrader defeated his Some Dude Republican opponent by 11.

Texas (24 of 36: TX-01 through TX-09, TX-14, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20 through TX-22, TX-24 through TX-26, TX-29 through TX-33 & TX-36).

There's a lot here, but it's clear the difficulty we face in congressional races in Texas. Nick Lampson outdid Obama by more than six points in TX-14, but that wasn't quite enough. The wild card, of course, is that the state's map will likely get redone before 2014.

Further, we have updates on two previous states:

California (CA-03)

Dem Rep. John Garamendi's performance (54-46) came just under Obama's (53-43). We'd expected CA-09 to the south to be more competitive (Ricky Gill certainly fundraised more than Kim Vann), but the 9th turned out to be bluer than the 3rd based on 2012 presidential returns, whereas they were quite similar according to the 2008 results. So that probably explains why Dem Rep. Jerry McNerney also wound up winning 54-46 despite the higher quality of his opposition.

Indiana (IN-02 and IN-03)

Democrat Brendan Mullen had quite the headwind in IN-02. The fact that Obama won this district in 2008 really shows his overperformance in the state that year, with a victory measured in decimals turning into a 56-42 Romney rout. That Mullen lost by little more than one percent is pretty amazing.

11:17 AM PT: SC-Sen-B: PPP went into the field over the weekend with a quickie poll after South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint announced late last week that he'd be quitting Congress to spend more time with the Heritage Foundation. (I mean, who wouldn't, right?) In turn, that means GOP Gov. Nikki Haley gets to tap a temporary replacement for DeMint, but whom shall it be? Tom Jensen threw a whole bunch of names into the hopper, called up a bunch of Palmetto State voters, and said "Tell us who ya like." And the leading contender?

Ladies and gentlemen: I present to you Mr. Stephen Colbert. Now, the truthy-telling talkshow host has dabbled in politics before, hosting rallies in Washington, mucking about with his own Super PAC, and even running for president in his native South Carolina. But would Colbert suit Republicans, who of course want to replace the conservative DeMint with another right-winger?

I think so! Stephen Colbert once described Stephen Colbert as a "well-intentioned, poorly informed, high-status idiot," which if anything makes him overqualified to serve in the Senate as a Republican. But hey, 20 percent of South Carolinians want to see him succeed DeMint—a clear majority, as I'm sure Colbert would understand it.

Recognizing that Colbert might not want to give up his current reality-changing megaphone, though, Tom Jensen tested a few different possible lineups for Haley to choose from. Here's how it all falls out:

Stephen Colbert 20 J. Sanford 17 Scott 19
Tim Scott 15 Scott 16 McMaster 17
Trey Gowdy 14 McMaster 13 Gowdy 15
Jenny Sanford 11 Gowdy 12 Wilson 8
Henry McMaster 8 M. Sanford 9 Mulvaney 7
Mark Sanford 8 Wilson 7 Duncan 6
Jeff Duncan 5 Duncan 6 Other/undecided 28
Joe Wilson 5 Mulvaney 5
Mick Mulvaney 4 Other/undecided 14
Other/undecided 11

As you can see, if Colbert decides to stay in New York City rather than return home, his supporters help boost the cause of ... Jenny Sanford, the former wife of former Gov. Mark Sanford, who himself remarkably still has a few adherents. If you figure that Gov. Haley has no desire to welcome the Sanford sideshow back into town from its current road tour on the Appalachian Trail, and if you also assume she can't handle Colbert's unique brand of truthiness, column three gets you down to the boring "serious" names. All of them are current members of the House (except for McMaster, who is a former state attorney general). Tim Scott, who would be the only African American in the Senate were Haley to tap him, comes out on top.

But will Haley care about any of this? She gets to make the choice free and clear, though of course, there are always political considerations. As Jensen points out, she's one of the most unpopular governors in the nation, with a 42-49 job approval rating—good for just 35th place out of 43 sitting governors PPP has tested. What better way, as Tom says, to restore her standing than to appoint the man 100 percent of 20 percent of South Carolina voters choose? If Stephen Colbert am America, then so can Haley!

11:22 AM PT: FL-Gov: I don't know why he didn't do this at the Democratic National Convention earlier this year, when he had a speaking slot and a national audience and could have made more of a splash, but ex-Gov. (and ex-Republican) Charlie Crist has finally completed his transition. On Friday, he signed papers that changed his party enrollment from independent to Democrat, a necessary step if he tries to seek his old job back in 2014—something that's only possible at this point as a Dem.

11:37 AM PT (David Jarman): WA-St. Sen.: Putting Republicans in power even though Democrats have the majority: it isn't just for New Yorkers anymore! As has been previously threatened, the two renegade Democrats in the Washington state Senate (where Democrats are in control 26-23) just sorta-defected, not throwing the Senate to Republican control entirely but creating a centrist power-sharing arrangement that I doubt is going to leave anyone very happy except for maybe newspaper editorial boards. Democrat Rodney Tom, the ringleader of the enterprise (who was a Republican as a state Rep., until he ran for the Senate as a Dem in 2006) will take over as majority leader from Ed Murray, and co-conspirator Tim Sheldon will become president pro tem.

Republicans and Democrats will each chair one-half of the chamber's committees, including some that will be co-chaired -- although it's worth noting that some of the most moderate first-term GOPers, Andy Hill and Steve Litzow, will chair two of the most important committees, getting leapfrogged over much-more-senior conservative members. One other consequence that shouldn't be overlooked: seeing as how every vote needs to count in order to make the coup work, the Republicans were also forced to accept loose-cannonish (emotionally more so than ideologically) Pam Roach -- whom they kicked out of the caucus -- back into the fold.

11:56 AM PT: LA-03: The books were finally closed on the 2012 elections with Rep. Charles Boustany's 61-39 victory over fellow GOP Rep. Jeff Landry in Louisiana's redrawn 3rd Congressional District. Last year, mapmakers in the legislature had to eliminate one House seat thanks to the state's relative population shrinkage and Landry, the only freshman Republican in the delegation, saw his district just shredded to pieces. No matter where he might run, he'd face another incumbent, and he ultimately decided his best bet was in the 3rd against Boustany, even though he only represented 24 percent of the district's constituents (and for only a single term).

Landry, though, had socked the establishment hard in his initial victory in 2010, so we were never ready to write him off against the more rank-and-file Boustany. But it looks like geography was once again destiny: In the first round of voting in November, Boustany edged Landry 45-30, meaning he won the vote between the two men 60-40. That's almost identical to his score in the runoff. If anything, that's a little surprising to me, given that I'd expect Landry's high-energy tea party base would be more likely to show up for a low-turnout affair. But Landry did out-perform on at least one level, seeing as Boustany represents 76 percent of the 3rd but only took 61 percent of the vote in the end.

Of course, moral victories don't count for much in politics. But this may not be the last we hear of Landry: He's only 41, and he could potentially run for Senate in 2014. While Louisiana Republicans may well rally around an establishment-type candidate like Rep. Bill Cassidy, on a statewide stage, Landry would be on roughly equal footing in terms of name recognition. So I think it's definitely not impossible that he could ride movement conservative anger to a Senate nomination. And I suspect that Dem Sen. Mary Landrieu might very much be rooting for just that outcome.

12:14 PM PT: TX-23: GOP Rep. Quico Canseco, who lost to Democrat Pete Gallego 50-46 last month, says he's considering a rematch in 2014. Canseco ran for Congress twice before winning in 2010's tea party wave, and given his personal wealth, he could easily self-fund another campaign. But the possibility still remains that this district could get tinkered with further in litigation, and if it does, it's likely to become more Hispanic, and hence bluer. Meanwhile, the question for Gallego will be what happens to voter turnout during a midterm election, as opposed to a presidential year.

12:27 PM PT (David Jarman): As for the question of "why" behind the Washington Senate coup, for Tom it's a mix of power-questing and goo-goo centrist douchiness, while for Sheldon it's a matter of just being temperamentally conservative and repping a red district. The analogy would be if Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson (respectively) had been given the opportunity to do the same thing in a 51-49 U.S. Senate.

As for what we might actually do about it, Washington has one of the highest bars to recall in the nation (the petition needs to be 35% of the votes cast in the last election), so recall is highly unusual. Tom and Sheldon, though, are both up in 2014. Tom is in a Dem-leaning suburban district in Bellevue and has certainly has made himself vulnerable to a primary challenge, though the mechanics of the Top 2 primary increase his odds of survival so long as he survives the first round (as he'd probably win either a Dem/Tom or Tom/GOP matchup). Sheldon is personally popular in his rural, GOP-leaning district and survived primary challenges (pre-Top 2 primary) from the left before.

1:18 PM PT: NJ-Gov: Assemblyman John Wisniewski, more of a longshot possibility among would-be Democratic contenders, says he won't run for governor next year and will instead seek re-election. Meanwhile, Passaic County Dem chair John Currie is trying to tout Rep. Bill Pascrell as a possible "compromise" candidate, even though he just won a bitter member-vs.-member primary against Steve Rothman earlier this year. Interestingly, though, Bergen County chair Lou Stellato agrees with his counterpart, despite the fact that Rothman hails from Bergen and the primary caused a pretty tense Passaic-Bergen split. In a statement from his office, Pascrell refused to rule out a bid, but I would note that he's 75 years old.

1:24 PM PT: PA-Gov: Hmm. This is as thin as you can get, but a local CBS station reports that "sources close to" newly re-elected Sen. Bob Casey are saying Casey's refusing to rule out a run for governor in 2014. In his prior remarks, Casey didn't definitively close the door, but when we last checked in, he didn't sound very interested: "My focus has been and will continue to be the work I'm doing," Casey said in late November. "I'm very content in the Senate." But as CBS's Larry Kane notes, this vagueness on Casey's part will make it a lot harder for other Democrats to ramp up and gain traction with campaigns of their own, so it's really incumbent on Casey to speak his mind clearly one way or the other—very soon.

2:28 PM PT: Meanwhile, in more serious South Carolina Senate news, Haley rather explicitly foreclosed the possibility of tapping a temporary replacement for DeMint who would not seek re-election in 2014. Said Haley: "I do not want to deprive our state’s citizens of the chance to render their judgment on the appointee’s performance by way of their vote."

2:33 PM PT: VA-Gov: Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling continues to play footsie with a possible third-party bid. When Bolling unexpectedly "suspended" his campaign for the GOP gubernatorial nomination at the end of November, he specifically didn't close the door on an independent run, and in a new interview on Friday, he repeated that stance, saying: "I have not ruled that out, and I'm not prepared to rule that out." Bolling did add that he would not wage an indie bid "simply to be a spoiler of some sort," so perhaps he's conducting some polling right now to see if he has a path to victory.

2:49 PM PT: NY-11: Lennie Briscoe once famously asked, "How come rich guys always owe a billion dollars?" The same could be asked of the terminally sketchball, though at least in these sorts of cases, the reasons are usually a lot more obvious: New campaign finance reports show that GOP Rep. Mike Grimm, who is under super-duper-investigation, owes his attorneys over $550,000. In fact, that sum actually stood at $678K—until Politico pointed it out and Grimm filed an amended report. (You can almost picture the call to Paton Boggs: "Guys, please do NOT cash that check until Jan. 1! I promise it'll be good then!")

Also interesting is that Grimm still has $242K on-hand in his campaign account, suggesting he felt very confident in his race against Democrat Mark Murphy (which he won 53-46)... though perhaps he preferred to save his pennies to pay his lawyers, rather than wind up even further in hock.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Oregon by Obama 2012 so far (11+ / 0-)

    Photobucket
    darker colors = that candidate won by at least 2-1
    some counties that will have precinct numbers up don't yet, and I still haven't checked Douglas or Klamath yet, since I'm only doing this during breaks from studying.

    Here's the Salem area, to follow up on the discussion about state capitols over the weekend.
    Photobucket

    As you can see Salem itself is quite blue.  Obama only won three other cities in Marion County, though, and much of the rest of the county is quite red.  

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:23:20 AM PST

    •  Pretty interesting. (0+ / 0-)

      Oregon has been a state I've wanted to gerrymander in DRA for some time.

      British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

      by General Goose on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:53:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  why is the diary blank? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

    by MartyM on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:28:24 AM PST

  •  PA-GOV (5+ / 0-)

    The PA Society gossip:

    A former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, [John] Hanger, 55, is the first Democrat to formally declare a 2014 challenge to Republican Gov. Tom Corbett. He also wants to be the first person to break a decades-old streak of sitting governors successfully winning re-election to a second, four-year term....

    But if choices are what voters are looking for, they abounded here. Other would-be candidates filled the salons at party central in the Waldorf-Astoria hotel on Park Avenue, as well as other bars and restaurants around the city.

    There, they refined their non-denial denials, bashfully demurring, but never explicitly saying “No” when they were asked whether they harbored ambitions of taking on Corbett, whose sagging approval numbers have state Democrats eager to take him on in two years’ time.

    “People have approached me and are encouraging me to think about it,” said U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz, D-13th District, whose name added seasoning this weekend to an ever-enlarging stew of potential candidates.

    Others in the mix: U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa.; state Treasurer Rob McCord; Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski; retiring state Auditor General Jack Wagner; Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro; former Rendell administration official Tom Wolf of York and onetime Philadelphia mayoral candidate Tom Knox.

    Asked if she was mulling a run, Schwartz said, “I don’t even want to say it that strongly … Listening to people is the closest I’ll get on it.”

    [Many more non-denials from others follow.]
    •  candidates to replace Gov. Corbett (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I know print journalism is anathema, but there's an interview with state Treasurer Rob McCord in the current issue of Philadelphia magazine, exploring why he might be a credible candidate. Much of it boils down to fund-raising ability and access to a network of donors with deep pockets.

      The article describes him, paraphrasing, as open to liberal social positions, but a finance realist.  

       

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:49:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  the article's online (5+ / 0-)

        I've posted it before:

        Ebullient, inquisitive and, yes, a bit undisciplined, McCord is unlike any prominent politician to cross the Pennsylvania stage in years. And he’s obviously having an awfully good time.

        As well he should. Life has been very good to McCord, an ambitious Main Liner and venture capitalist turned political aspirant. He is a rich man gifted both with the right connections and the talent to maximize those advantages. Born into an academic family, he was schooled at Harvard and Wharton. He was mentored in politics by two-time U.S. Cabinet Secretary Norman Mineta, and in business by legendary former Safeguard Scientifics CEO Pete Musser. He made millions investing in tech start-ups, then waltzed into statewide elected office four years ago as a first-time candidate. And in early November, he was easily reelected to a second term as state treasurer.

        And so, in a state Democratic Party short on high-profile talent, McCord’s profile is surging, and the calls for him to challenge Governor Corbett in 2014 are growing louder. State Democratic chairman Jim Burn says McCord is a “top-tier” name “held in the highest esteem” by party bosses. Congressman Chaka Fattah pronounces himself a “big fan.” Philadelphia Democratic Party boss Bob Brady considers him “formidable” and “probably our strongest candidate.”

        What makes this establishment enthusiasm for McCord so interesting is the fact that he in no way resembles gubernatorial candidates of the past. Pennsylvanians tend to be traditionalists when it comes to their elected leaders. Governors Corbett and Rendell are both redolent of the 20th century, with old-fashioned political résumés and brands (Rendell the charismatic operator, Corbett the sober uncle). So were Dan Onorato (a longtime lawyer and pol) and Lynn Swann (the ex-athlete trope).

        McCord, though, is a thoroughly modern politician. He’s run a think tank and a series of investment funds. He’s considered a critical early leader in the development of the region’s tech industry. He has an African-American wife. And he entered politics late in life, mea­ning he has ascended without the benefit—or b­aggage—of a machine to call his own.

        •  thanks! n/t (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

          by Christopher Walker on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:01:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Sounds like an interesting guy, although (4+ / 0-)

          outside of a brief mention of desiring and getting a smaller bond issue for for construction (which, the article amusingly notes, put him on Ed Rendell's shit list, where he remains to this day), something about tax incentives, and something about how pensions are in trouble, it's not clear what really makes him a kind of fiscal conservative. Governors are more limited in what they can do than presidents, but this definitely deserves more explanation. What does he plan to do about pensions? What about collective bargaining? What about education funding?

          He kind of sounds like Pennsylvania's version of Mark Warner--a center-leftish, technocratic Democrat who desires to be known more for managerial competence than anything else. That could be a very good thing, and if he's successful, I could see him being a national candidate. But the article would have been much better had it fleshed out his positions a little more.

          I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

          by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:02:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Insourcing: the campaign issue of 2016? (14+ / 0-)

    http://www.theatlantic.com/...

    After years of offshore production, General Electric is moving much of its far-flung appliance-manufacturing operations back home. It is not alone. An exploration of the startling, sustainable, just-getting-started return of industry to the United States.
    Water heaters and refrigerators -- and if you drill down, based on "Design for Manufacturing" principles, they're actually being made more cheaply in the USA, at regular American wages.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:37:48 AM PST

    •  Why is this? (0+ / 0-)

      Is it because of insourcing tax-incentives, or the costs of transportation, or what?

    •  I haven't cracked open (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      that issue of The Atlantic yet, but I offer this post by Felix Salmon in response.

      I'm not looking to turn this into a policy discussion, so I will merely mention certain things as campaign subjects and nothing else, but remember last week when I mentioned how it seemed impossible for the Republicans to make their case to the middle class without some fundamental policy changes, as opposed to rhetorical ones? This reminded me of that.

      Salmon's post describes how the wages that some manufacturing companies are offering just aren't that high and how it might simply be better financially to work as a manager at McDonalds. There are lots of different ways that the government could prod people into taking more of these low(er)-wage jobs-- different forms of a more robust wage subsidy or eliminating more taxes for people below a certain level, for instance--but can you imagine any of them being accepted by the Republican base?

      I'm not saying that they can't be competitive without adopting something similar to what I described, but if they do, they might just find people more willing to vote for them.

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:12:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  By the way, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      the issues for 2016 largely depend on what happens now. If there's no big changes to the tax system, for instance, I expect that to be front and center.

      I'd also expect college costs to be a BIG issue, unless something changes.

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:17:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  More: High oil prices are helping! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, MBishop1, bumiputera

      1) High oil prices are helping. Increasing transportation costs make outsourcing more expensive.

      2) Design for Manufacturing works only if the engineers and production workers are in the same place. In the case cited, Design for Manufacturing principles mean that it costs 25% less to produce the noted high-tech water heater in the US than in China -- even after higher US wages are factored in.

      aka. increasing wages in China are essentially irrelevant.

      I hope; therefore, I can live.

      by tietack on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:43:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  even republicans hate Corbett (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueDem, JBraden

    Corbett is disliked by almost all the republicans I know in Pa. He may be vulnerable to a primary especially with his involvement with the Sandusky case.

  •  PPP: Top choice for South Carolinians... (6+ / 0-)

    To replace Sen. DeMint is one Rev. Sir Dr. Stephen T. Mos Def Colbert, D.F.A. Tweet here.

    From earlier tweets, it sounds like Rep. Tim Scott was running ahead among non-Colbert candidates.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:18:06 AM PST

    •  as a Democrat? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:21:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      They have got to be kidding. Either that or it will be a result where each person has like 8-10% of the population behind them and Colbert has 15%.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:36:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He'd be better than Tim Scott (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, DCCyclone, askew

      In fact, he'd be the best South Carolina Senator in...well, probably forever.

      •  It might actually be smart... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn

        In a twisted way for Gov. Haley to appoint Colbert. Yes, Senate Republicans would scream bloody murder, and it would probably hurt Haley's reelection chances -- but she's quite likely going to face a primary in 2014 anyway (there's no shortage of South Carolina Republicans looking to move up) and I think a second term as governor is a tough proposition for her.

        But putting Colbert in the Senate for two years of gridlock would take a rather effective and scathing political satire show off the air -- maybe for good -- and would pretty much guarantee Republicans take the seat in 2014 with basically anyone they want. And Haley could go into the infotainment business in her own right.

        ...But who are we kidding? Haley doesn't want to screw herself even more just to take Colbert and his comedy show off the board. She'll probably appoint Rep. Tim Scott to try to head off a primary challenge from him or one of his allies.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:52:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'd guess (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AussieforObama2ndterm, MichaelNY

        James Byrnes, Burnet Maybank and Olin Johnston were decent, although Byrnes went from shepherding the New Deal in the 30s to helping Nixon take the South in 68.

        ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

        by GoUBears on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:00:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Actually, Jenny Sanford is running ahead of Scott (0+ / 0-)

      and has decent approvals too, according to PPP. Given Haley's closeness to the Sanfords and her general honey badger attitude, I'd consider her a distinct possibility. Also, Jenny Sanford is a woman, and there would be no Republican women from the South in the Senate as of January, so that's something else Haley might think about.

      Compassion is not weakness, and concern for the unfortunate is not socialism.

      by Zutroy on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:14:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP SC-Sen-B (7+ / 0-)

    Colbert 20, Scott 15, Gowdy 14, J. Sanford 11, McMaster/M. Sanford 8
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

    by GoUBears on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:39:36 AM PST

  •  NJ-Gov: Cory Booker calls Christie "vulnerable" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    intriguing:
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    In my perfect world, Frank Pallone runs for Senate after Lautenberg retires, Booker runs for Gov., and Steve Sweeney or Jeff Van Drew runs for NJ-02 when LoBiondo retires.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:44:03 AM PST

    •  Wasn't Van Drew one of the senators... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Who voted against gay marriage?

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:47:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, he was. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The mitigating factor for that is that he represents the only Democratic-held legislative district where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats (and most of those Republicans are in Cape May County, full of retirees and the like).

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:53:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Please. No Sweeney. (0+ / 0-)

      Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

      by Paleo on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:04:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm hoping Booker runs for NJ-Sen 2014 (0+ / 0-)

      I know some here fear Booker is too much a corporate Dem, but somehow I suspect as a backbench Senator he'd be a loyal vote with his party, which ultimately is all that matters.  He's no Joe Lieberman, he has no desire to stick a needle in his party's eye out of personal pique or any other reason.  He's not in a conservative state like Evan Bayh was, which necessitated showing voters he needed that wasn't too liberal.  Yes Booker made a bone-headed Kinsleyian gaffe about Obama's Bain attacks, but he did walk it back as fully as can be done, not something one can expect from people like Lieberman or Bayh or Manchin.

      I really want to see more people of color in the Senate, there are not a lot of obvious up-and-comers on their way there, and Booker has potential to be an instant star there even as a backbencher.  I can see him on a national ticket someday.

      Of course I like Lautenberg just fine, he's been a great Senator, but at 90 I doubt he'll be up for another 6 years, especially since he had retired once before and ran again only to bail out state Dems after Torricelli's implosion.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:43:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I want to see lots more senators of color (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, kleinburger

        But in this case, I really think we can do better, as in much more liberal. And in this particular case, that matters more to me.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:16:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  My point is he'd be more liberal than you think (0+ / 0-)

          Booker doesn't strike me as someone who would ever cast a dissenting vote.  He doesn't have to, and his political incentives all would push against it.

          I think you worry too much about him.  I put a lot of weight into his walkback of his Bain comments.  He bent over backward to walk them back, and that's important because it shows he wants to be a team player and overridingly is scared of pissing off the left.  Compare to Senators from red states, or someone like Lieberman who is a self-absorbed egomaniac...Booker isn't like any of them.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Dec 12, 2012 at 08:32:23 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Also (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Did anyone see this article about Rubio?

    http://www.latina.com/...

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:51:44 AM PST

  •  Rolling Stone profiles 10 key OFA players: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    General Goose, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:01:46 AM PST

    •  Huh. (8+ / 0-)
      Now that the dust has settled and the vote totals are nearly certified, it's clear that the 2012 presidential election was never a squeaker. It was a landslide. Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by more than 4.6 million votes nationwide, driving the Republican down to a karmic 47 percent of the popular vote.
      I think this is kind of stretching the definition of "landslide", honestly.  Ain't exactly 1964 or 1972.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:50:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree. (5+ / 0-)

        It was a solid victory, perhaps even a super solid one given the circumstances, but no landslide.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:56:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I wouldn't even call Bill in 1996 a "landslide". (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I think I called it a "romp" the other day.  I'm fine with "solid" for 2012.  I might steer a bit shy of "decisive"--I vaguely feel like a margin of 5 points or more is "decisive".  But I think a "landslide" margin has to be at least in the double digits, and probably should be closer to 20 than to 10.  Obama's margin is shy of 4 points.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:00:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  There, we disagree. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            In this fairly polarized climate, anything about 10 points should count as landslide. Hell, even in absolute routes, the margins never get beyond 25. In 1984, the margin was 18.21 points.  In 1972, it was 23.15 points. In 1968, it was 22.58 points.

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:06:07 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  My termination and their definitions. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt, lordpet8, MichaelNY

            Terminations with recent year that defines it:

            Razor-2000
            Close-2004
            Solid-2012
            Romp-2008
            Blowout-1988
            Landslide-1964, 1972, 1984
            1932-1996:
            1996- Romp
            1992- Romp
            1980- Blowout
            1976- Close
            1968- Depends on if you go by PV (Razor) or EV (Solid)
            1960- Again, depends, PV (Razor), EV (Close)
            1956- Blowout
            1952- Blowout
            1948- PV (Close), EV (Solid)
            1944- PV (Solid), EV (Blowout)
            1940- PV (Solid), EV (Blowout)
            1936- Landslide
            1932- Landslide
            These are my personal definitions. I hesitated about putting a category between close and solid, which would have been if a candidate would have got about 300 EVs, but I decided against it.

            Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

            by WisJohn on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:31:28 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think 1956 is pretty clearly a landslide (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn, MichaelNY

              Ike won by over 15 points and carried everything but the deep south, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Missouri.  He was also winning in places that Republicans had basically never won before, such as Jefferson County, Alabama (Birmingham).

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

              by sawolf on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:32:13 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  "Termination" makes me think of cyborgs (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I think you mean terminology? =P

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

              by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:07:21 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  On the other hand in 1988 Bush... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...won a "landslide" victory.  Dukakis got 46% rounded up.  Bush got 53% rounded down.  Albeit Bush took a number of big states by a very small margin to pad his electoral numbers.

        So by that standard you could argue it was.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:33:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd call that solid/romp very much on par (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          with 2008.  (It probably felt like a landslide defeat for Democrats.)  The margin in the electoral college--I really don't care about that at all.  If someone were to win every state by 0.5%, this would be a pretty shabby "landslide", as far as I can tell.  (It'd be kind of cool, though.)

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 02:11:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  A key sign of someone using numbers shadily (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, BeloitDem, jncca, MBishop1, MichaelNY

      is when they mix absolute numbers and percentages based on whatever sounds more dramatic.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:53:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Good stuff, especially on the polling: (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MBishop1, MichaelNY, askew
      As the general election heated up, the Obama campaign had three separate sets of polling that measured the battleground. One, a weekly (and eventually daily) poll of the battleground by the campaign's in-house pollster, Joel Beneson. Two, a suite of state-based pollsters, experts on their home demography, who conducted sophisticated surveys across ten states. And third, a separate nightly survey headed up by the campaign's analytics department that interviewed 9,000 battleground voters every night, giving the campaign what Messina called "a very deep look at the electorate."

      Messina said Simas' tri-pronged polling operation gave the campaign "real confidence" of victory because "all three were saying the same thing." Added Axelrod: "We were never behind in our own polling – never." The media's horserace coverage and spin from the Romney camp, he said, gave the campaign an "illusion of volatility," but "this race was fundamentally stable throughout."

  •  Wow, Obama approval up to 58% on RAss (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, lordpet8, ArkDem14, itskevin, JBraden

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:06:50 AM PST

  •  Nebraska and Virginia (10+ / 0-)

    Both have certified their results. I've added them to my spreadsheet!

    https://docs.google.com/...

    Nebraska moved from R+13 to R+12
    Virginia from R+2 to R+0

    Wasserman has the 2008 result numbers on his Twitter feed instead of the 2012 numbers... lolz.

    Also, Obama actually got slightly more than 10 thousand more votes in 2012 than he did in 2008 in Virginia, while Romney got almost 100 thousand more votes than McCain did in the state.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:09:21 AM PST

  •  A whole lot of new districts up... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, ehstronghold, MichaelNY

    On the google docs today with Obama percentages.  

    I keep waiting for the diary post, but it doesn't seem forthcoming.  

    Anyway, I see a new one in Alabama and California, a few new ones in Indiana, 4/8 Missouri, 8/16 in Ohio,  3/5 in Oregon, and 23/36 in Texas.  

    Going through things of note.

    1.  Garamandi's district improved in terms of PVI from D+3 (2008 only) to D+4.  It's getting close to non-competitive.  

    2.  We don't have a shot in IN-02 anymore.  2012 only PVI is R+9.  

    3.  So far, Ohio is looking like a brutal gerrymander.  All of the Republican seats save one are between R+5 and R+7.  The exception so far is OH-10, which (again, in 2012 only numbers) is R+3, just at the boundary of what could be competitive.  OH-16 is just plain lost though.  I'm hopeful OH-14, when the numbers come in, will be okay for us.  

    4.  OR-05 moved the wrong way, going to an EVEN PVI looking at 2012 only.  Schrader is clearly potentially one of the most endangered longer-term Democratic incumbents in a swing seat.  

    5.  Nothing interesting out of Texas yet.  Of course, TX-23 will be the only really interesting thing.  Some initial estimates by forumers suggested it went for Romney.  It will be interesting to see if this is the case.  

    •  Huh? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Garamendi was D+2 in 2008 only. Overall it is D+3.

      https://docs.google.com/...

      I'm inputting the rest as we speak.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:16:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Again... (0+ / 0-)

        I don't use traditional PVI.  I'm tracking 2008 and 2012 numbers separately.  Basically because I want to get a good idea about the most recent swing.  

        2008 only - D+3 (2.8%)
        2012 Only - D+4 (3.9%)
        08/12 PVI - D+3 (3.4%)

        •  then don't call it PVI, or call it Telephasic's (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          PVI, because when someone sees PVI they think Cook PVI.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:36:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  To be honest... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701

            I think the best thing would be to compare Kerry's 2004 results with Obama's 2012 results.  

            Why, because it's an easy way to distinguish between those seats rapidly realigning (like many in California, or Appalachia on the other hand) with those where there were one-time spikes in Obama's performance in 2008 which screws things up (like Illinois and much of the midwest).

            That said, I haven't been able to find these numbers anywhere.  Did we track them on SSP?  

            •  I don't like leaving out elections. (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca, itskevin, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

              2008 happened, and so did 2004, and so did 2012.  All had their individual circumstances, but all should be taken into account in trying to understand trends.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

              by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:07:19 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think leaving out genuine outliers is OK (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                But I don't think 2008 is a genuine outlier.

                Elections like 1964 and 1972 were genuine outliers, with very unusual circumstances.

                And 1992 was an outlier in particular states like Montana and Georgia and others, where a third candidate really did produce an otherwise impossible outcome.

                But yeah, 2008 is in the realm of reasonable, proven by 2012 which wasn't far off in popular vote or state-by-state outcomes.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:35:39 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I get that. I specifically said that the 2008 ONLY PVI, which you said was D+3, is not D+3. It's D+2. I don't know if you're looking at two party only numbers or all party numbers, but PVI only looks at the two party vote share for statistical reasons.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:49:15 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Here we go 04/08 to 08/12 PVIs (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, WisJohn, James Allen

      AL-1 moved from R+14 to R+15
      CA-3 moved from D+1 to D+3
      IN-2 moved from R+7 to R+6, so I have no idea why you think this can't be a target anymore despite perhaps what is a momentary shift after Obama did not contest the state and he still did better than Kerry here.
      IN-3 stays at R+13
      MO-1 moved from D+27 to D+28
      MO-5 stays at D+9
      MO-7 moved from R+17 to R+19
      MO-8 moved from R+13 to R+17, we have even less of a chance here than we though. Is it possibility to go from 0% of a chance to less than 0% of a chance?
      OH-1 moved from R+6 to R+5
      OH-2 moved from R+9 to R+8
      OH-3 moved from D+14 to D+17
      OH-7 moved from R+5 to R+6
      OH-10 moved from R+2 to R+3
      OH-11 stays at D+30
      OH-15 stays at R+6
      OH-16 moved from R+5 to R+6
      OR-1 moved from D+6 to D+7
      OR-3 moved from D+21 to D+22
      OR-5 stays at even, though it should be noted on the D+0 side of even now (don't know about before as Cook doesn't specify).

       

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:29:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dude... (0+ / 0-)

        You're just doing it differently from me.  I'm not comparing 04/08 PVI to 08/12 PVI.  I'm just comparing 2008 to 2012, because I didn't have a handy-dandy list of how well Kerry did in each of the new districts.  

        I guess I could import Cook numbers, but ideally I'd want 2004 alone so I could see the trend across two presidential elections unimpeded.  

        •  I know (0+ / 0-)

          I'm simply responding so that everyone has full information. It's important to know both sets of data, which you can actually get from my spreadsheet as well.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:50:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  ... (0+ / 0-)

      Also, do you have some personal animus against me or something? It's been quite obvious for awhile because you never address me specifically, instead referring to me as "some forumers" or "some around here" and completely undercutting me by suggesting that I'm an idiot when you say stuff like "it'll be interesting to see if this is the case".

      La Salle County's votes, which are not yet up on the DKE spreadsheet because the county clerk was not able to locate for me a specific .pdf to email but was able to read me off the results she had on hand over the phone will not be enough to take Obama over Romney. Period. Even if you gave all of the county's votes to Obama. All of them. Even the ones cast for Romney.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:37:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Huh? (0+ / 0-)

        I'm sorry, I don't even pay much attention frequently to who posts what here.  

        I knew the TX-23 results were in your doc, but I also know lots of people have posted their own estimates for many districts, including a few which aren't on your own doc, like WV and NE.  I know that some of these estimates have later been superseded as further results (including provisional ballots, etc), have been taken into affect.  I make note of when a number shows up officially on DKE's pages, but otherwise I leave it in italics until we have double-cheeked information (as is the case in Virginia, Connecticut, Washington, etc).  

      •  Take this to PMs (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem

        Or just drop it. Absolutely unacceptable and utterly indulgent to engage in this in public.

        Political Director, Daily Kos

        by David Nir on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:51:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Schrader got the district he wanted (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

      which may not have been wise of him, but it's what he wanted.

      He's probably fine.  This movement was almost entirely from Clackamas County, and probably won't move much further right before the next redistricting, if at all.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:39:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yep. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I realize that, but we really don't have many non-freshmen in swingy districts.  By my count it's...

        Walz (MN-01)
        Schrader (OR-05)
        Michaud (ME-02)
        Kind (WI-03) - I think a Ryan bump is the only reason here
        Himes (CT-04)
        Garamendi (CA-03)

        Plus probably DeFazio and four of our New York seats I mentioned below.  And of course our five long-term incumbents in deep-red seats.  

        Really, I'm feeling pretty bullish we'll keep our 2014 losses to a handful.  

        •  If WI-03 is swingy, it is the (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

          least swingy of all the swingy seats. The fact that Kind almost lost in 2010, but still won by 3 pts, is a fluke. He has cruised here since 1998 (elected in '96, 52-48). When Kind moves on, it will be a fairly close race to replace him, but the Dem will still win. The GOP made this district more Democratic to shore up Duffy, and, don't forget, 2008 was a high watermark in WI for Dems. The 2008 election (with Obama's 14 point win) was the least-closest presidential election in WI (going by percentage) since 1964.

          Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

          by WisJohn on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:48:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Stevens Point was added to WI-3 in redistricting (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            Stevens Point is quite the Democratic stronghold, by the way.

            Julie Lassa has been a state senator from the Stevens Point area for many years, and she is about as inspiring as a doornob. Lassa is probably the only Dem who could probably lose WI-3 in an open-seat race, and Republicans would have to run a VERY impressive candidate to do so. Kathleen Vinehout would romp easily in an open-seat race in WI-3, and Jennifer Shilling would win comfortably in an open seat race in WI-3.

            I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a Vinehout-Shilling-Lassa Democratic primary in WI-3 if Kind retires or runs statewide in 2014.

            Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

            by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 12:45:20 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Also, his new district is closer to D+7 than D+4 (0+ / 0-)
    •  I also think you're too pessimistic on IN-02 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      we nearly won it this year.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:25:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe there was a one-time... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Drop in our vote totals.  After all, the state wasn't contested, and there is no evidence Northern Indiana is trending away from us like Appalachia.  

        That said, the average PVI for 08/12 (traditional calculation) is more right-wing than even Colin Peterson's seat, meaning likely only GA 12, WV-03, UT-04, and NC-07 are worse.  Our most right-wing pickup, FL-18, was still 2% better in terms of PVI.  

        Honestly, I think there were a certain amount of right-leaning voters who were just used to voting for a Democrat.  Now that Walorski can built up incumbency, I don't see her being threatened.  

    •  Garamendi CA3 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      John ran ahead of Obama - the higher challenger % is the result of the switch to Top 2 (there were still 6 choices plus Ron Paul for President). Keep that in mind everywhere you look in CA that Top2 is the new method, that the Districts were radically redrawn and that a new numbering system was used to distinguish them.

  •  Today is they day New York (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, itskevin, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

    Is supposed to certify it's results by state statues. I wonder what the odds of that actually happening are.

  •  SC1 special election (5+ / 0-)

    aka "call Linda Ketner until she runs"

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:33:45 AM PST

  •  Texas PVIs (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, James Allen, Chachy, MichaelNY

    Now that we've got more official data, I've updated the spreadsheet for these:

    https://docs.google.com/...

    TX-1 from R+21 to R+24 (big move)
    TX-2 stays at R+16
    TX-3 better for us from R+18 to R+16 (but still not good)
    TX-4 big move away R+21 to R+25
    TX-5 stays at R+15
    TX-6 moves slightly toward us R+13 to R+11
    TX-7 does the same R+14 to R+13
    TX-8 takes a leap away R+26 to R+29
    TX-9 big lean toward us D+21 to D+25
    TX-14, as I said earlier, moves away R+8 to R+12. Lampson acquitted himself well under that fact.
    TX-16 moved toward us slightly D+9 to D+12
    TX-18 moves toward us, but is now actually weaker than Green's district from D+22 to D+24
    TX-20 moves from D+3 to D+7
    TX-21 moves away from us (damn) R+11 to R+12
    TX-22 stays at R+15
    TX-24 moves toward us a point R+14 to R+13
    TX-25 moves away from us R+10 to R+12
    TX-26 stays at R+20
    TX-29 moves big toward us D+23 to D+27
    TX-31 moves slightly toward us R+13 to R+12
    TX-32 stays at R+10
    TX-35 moves toward us D+9 to D+12
    TX-36 takes a gigantic leap away R+20 to R+25

    Some of these large jumps away from us are among the biggest in the country and are on par with West Virginian districts, Kentucky districts, and Arkansas district.

    But I want to single out Veasay's district to make a point. TX-33 moved from D+14 to D+18. Yes, we're getting all these nice jumps in PVI in our own districts, but look at the turnout. Only just over 100,000 people voted here. Most the GOP districts in Texas have over 250,000 voters and some even above 300,000 total voters. That's just insane.  

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:46:15 AM PST

  •  new poll (9+ / 0-)

    Latinos favor tax increases on wealthy 77-12%.

    Even Latino Republicans favor tax increases on the wealthy by a narrow majority.

    The GOP is really fighting a losing battle on this one, and one that is going to cost them long-term.

  •  Haley says she won't appoint a placeholder (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:56:16 AM PST

  •  Tom Price to Challenge John Boehner? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, Taget, MichaelNY, JBraden

    That's the speculation, according to National Review, if the deal to avert the fiscal cliff "goes sour," whatever that means.

    If I recall correctly, Price was one possible challenger to Chambliss in 2014, along with Rep. Broun and Karen Handel. If this is the case, does Chambliss breathe a sigh of relief?

    I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

    by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:00:45 AM PST

    •  IDK (6+ / 0-)

      If Price wins that battle, sure Chambliss will breath a sigh of relief. But he won't. And losing may make Price more likely to leave the House and try for the Senate.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:05:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good point. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Taget, MichaelNY, JBraden

        Also, given that Republicans aren't exactly hurting in Georgia, there's got to be at least one other person on the level of Price, like Broun, who might be willing to give it a go, plus plenty of other state legislators who feel so emboldened.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:07:48 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  not happening (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, DCCyclone

      challenges to the party leader rarely work. The last time any party leader was ousted was in 1964 when Ford ousted Halleck. Michel might have ousted Rhodes in 1980 but I think Rhodes voluntarily gave the seat up.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:50:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Seems nihilistic to me (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone, BeloitDem

      It won't work, and it's a clear desperation play. John Boehner is speaker because Eric Cantor wants it that way. Cantor has the power and his career shows someone unwilling to wait his turn (just ask Roy Blunt). Ergo, he wants Boehner in charge. He supports Boehner, but not too much, and tries to undercut him from time to time so that Boehner knows who's daddy.

      If I had to guess, Cantor probably wants Boehner to be his Junior Soprano, the lightning rod to keep him safe. There are deals that need to be made, and Cantor wouldn't want to have himself made impure by having to support them. So, give Boehner a few more years at his dream job, and then hope that a Ryan-amenable conservative becomes president so that Cantor can marshal the troops to pass Ryan's budget.

  •  Looks official now (5+ / 0-)

    Washington state's senate will operate under GOP control, as two "Democrats" have switched sides to make one of themselves majority leader.

    Fucking awful.

    •  Thank heavens for Inslee or this would be worse. (8+ / 0-)

      and these state senators will get what's coming to them soon enough.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:30:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Any recourse? (0+ / 0-)

        Republicans recalled two GOP assemblymen in CA in 1995 for giving Willie Brown another six months of speakership. Can the same be done here? Or will they have to be primaried in their next election (hopefully 2014)?

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:36:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Washington has (6+ / 0-)

          one of the highest bars to recall in the nation (the petition needs to be 35% of the votes cast in the last election) so it recall really never happens.

          Tom and Sheldon are both up in 2014. Tom is in a Dem-leaning suburban district in Bellevue and has certainly has made himself vulnerable to a primary challenge, though no big name challengers spring to mind (he's tight w/ Dem state Rep. Ross Hunter -- Hunter's the one who got him to flip to being a Dem in the first place -- so I don't expect Hunter to try it). Sheldon is personally popular in his rural, GOP-leaning district and has survived primary challenges from the left before.

          As for the "why" question downthread, I'd say for Tom it's a mix of power-questing and goo-goo centrist douchiness, while for Sheldon it's a matter of just being temperamentally conservative and repping a red district. The analogy would be if someone somehow gave Lieberman and Ben Nelson (respectively) the opportunity to do the same thing.

          Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

          by David Jarman on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:47:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Alright so Tom is beatable. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            So just defeat him and the coalition falls apart.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:50:12 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Dude, top-two (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            there are no primaries in the conventional sense. And since top-two came into effect, it's a lot more difficult to defeat incumbents in Washington, essentially you have to beat them in the primary and put them in 3rd place right there.

            I think defeating the incumbent in August is how the one incumbent went down. And it was a "promote the other party in August so that the centrist incumbent gets dropped to 3rd" sort of loss. I don't think the Rs are going to be looking hard for guys to face Tom or Sheldon.

            As for Tim Sheldon, the guy is concurrently a county commissioner and a State Senator. Something which is somehow allowed in Washington.

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:12:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Wonderful (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, WisJohn, SaoMagnifico, askew

      They give the majority to the party that didn't win the most seats.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:32:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not exactly, but close to it. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY

        Democrats and Republicans are apparently going to do some power sharing thing where half the committees are chaired by Democrats, the other half by Republicans.  Also, these two morons did not change party affiliation.  Why did they do this though?

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:34:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, there is the power sharing (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          At least it wasn't a complete giveaway, but that's not saying much considering that Republicans are getting a lot for being the party who didn't win the most seats.

          26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:41:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Republicans deserve the scraps when they don't have the majority.  Maybe a token Chairmanship (like the CA Senate Ag committee) to make them feel they have some power, but all committees have a Dem membership edge.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:47:12 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  meanwhile in Oregon (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, askew
      At a news conference today in Salem, Gov. John Kitzhaber called legislators to a Dec. 14 special session in order to make a change to Oregon law that would open the doors for a major expansion of employment by Nike.

      The Washington County-based sportswear company intends to hire thousands of new employees, but has requested an assurance that the state's corporate tax structure won't change in the coming years.

      Kitzhaber said Monday that Nike's expansion would represent $2 billion in investment per year and could create as many as 12,000 jobs by 2020.

      link.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:48:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Were they planning to renew (0+ / 0-)

        what was put in place in 2010, outlined here, but was set to expire in 2013? Or was something else going on?

        I assume Knight means they don't want it to be renewed, let alone made higher.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 12:00:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think there may be a fight to keep more of (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

          the personal rates but not the temporary business taxes.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 12:03:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That makes sense. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Then again, the article you cite talks of a special agreement to apparently lock in rates for five years, which would seemingly go beyond what any sort of change happens in the overall rates.

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 12:07:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I see New York has company. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Any other states want to join us in giving the finger to every Democrat who volunteered in the last election?

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:42:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Outstanding seats of interest (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    To me anyway

    Offense: Seats Obama will/may get more than 47.5% of the two-party vote in 2012.  Basically, anything around as right-wing as FL-18 on leftward.  

    CA-21
    IL-13
    KS-03
    NJ-02, 03, 05
    NM-02
    NY-02, 11, 19, 22, 23
    OH-14
    PA-06, 07, 08, 15, 16

    Defense:  Seats Obama may have won less than 53% of the two party vote (ignoring the obvious UT-04 and NC-07)

    NY-01, 03, 18, 21
    OR-04

    A very New York-dominated list.  Probably not surprising given New York was a court-drawn map and all.  

  •  FL-18: Allen West drops graceful loser tone. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, MichaelNY, JBraden, askew

    When he conceded defeat, he sounded alright, but now he's claiming Murphy cheated:
    http://thinkprogress.org/...

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:34:51 AM PST

    •  Well then, (6+ / 0-)

      Allen West cheated in 2010 when he beat Ron Klein. (/snark)

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, One of 1,620,985 Wisconsinites to re-elect Barack Obama, and one of 1,547,104 Wisconsinites to send Tammy Baldwin to the US Senate!!!

      by WisJohn on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:38:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Somebody call the waaaaaaaambulance! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, JBraden

      Seriously, Congressman (and how I relish the day when I can dispense with that title), you want a little more cheese with that whine? I was thinking Rep. West could get a FOX News job after his second of two disgraceful firings from service to our country, but maybe instead he can start a small business selling whatever he's smoking, and be a pitchman for sour grapes on the side.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:32:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Franklin County, Ohio. (6+ / 0-)

    Overall, Franklin County is a great example of "demographics = destiny" actually holding up.  But I was looking at the U.S. Elections Atlas, and I didn't realize how abrupt the transition was.

    Bill Clinton only got 52% of the two-party vote there in 1996.  Gore and Nader only got 52% of the Gore/Nader/Bush vote.  So it's R+2, then it's Even.  Four years later, and Kerry got 55% of the two-party vote there--suddenly it's like D+6!  Even Obama, in 2012, "only" got like 62% of the two-party vote, which is--what--D+10?  Obama got 60.5% there in 2008, which is about D+7 or D+8.  But the really big transition was 2000 to 2004, and it was quite big.  There's a story there.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:35:00 AM PST

    •  And Dukakis didn't even get 40%. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, lordpet8, MichaelNY

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:37:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Gotta wonder how much of this was (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      due to better targeting.

      Others can tell me if I am wrong, but it's been my impression that while the ODP has always been good, the presidential campaigns didn't treat it the same way. Gore gave up on the state fairly early on, despite losing it by less than 4 points. In 2004, however, Kerry's campaign targeted the state in an intense way, which was amped up even more in 2008.

      I'm sure demographics helped, and I wouldn't be surprised if other factors played a role, but given what you've describe, doesn't this make sense as a factor?

      I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

      by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:42:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, Columbus has grown and changed the county (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

      In 1992, Clinton lost the 2-party vote in Franklin County.  I think back then Columbus was much more politically flexible.  When I lived in Columbus (age 0-2), our Congressman was Republican Chalmers Wylie, a lifer who had good constituent services.

      Also, Franklin County and all counties south to Scioto County (Portsmouth) had a blue shift from 2008.  This is just a thing I noticed because my dad did a bike tour from Columbus to Portsmouth and back way back when.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:42:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  demographics as destiny also helps when there's (5+ / 0-)

      a change in the attitude of the white voters too. Part of the reason why LA County has shifted so hard to the dems is not only due to nonwhites moving in but because most of the conservative whites voluntarily or involuntarily evicted themselves from the county and most of the whites who remained were/are more liberal.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:52:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wonder if it's a college town thing? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, jncca, Skaje, MichaelNY

      Travis County, TX went from 52% Gore/Nader to 56% Kerry, so even to D+8. It was D+9 this year.

      Boulder went from 62% Gore/Nader to 66% Kerry - D+10 to D+18. It was D+19 this year.

      Dane went from 67% Gore Nader (D+15) to 66% Kerry (D+18), and was D+20 this year. A bit less dramatic, but still an inflection point from 2000-2004.

      Clarke County, GA was Gore/Nader+5 and Kerry+10. And it was Obama+12 this year.

      Douglas County, KS was Gore/Nader+4 and Kerry+9. And it was Obama+9.5 or so this year.

      Alachua County, FL: Gore/Nader+9 and Kerry+8. And it was Obama+7 this year, so this one breaks the pattern (and is the only college town I've seen that's apparently trending republican!).

      •  Yeah, I think (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the overall trend in Franklin County relates to diversification; the big jump is a "college town thing".  But still leaves the cause open.  Good catch though.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 12:57:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (4+ / 0-)

        Millennials are the most liberal generation we've seen in the last 50 years, especially college educated ones.

        I'd also point to East Baton Rouge Parish, home of my alma mater LSU.

        Parish results from last 6 presidential elections: 52-47, 51-48, 54-45, 53-45, 49-46, 41-49.

        These numbers are even more stark when measured against the rest of the state. Clinton WON Louisiana while losing EBR by 8 in 1992. Obama won EBR while LOSING the state by 18 points.

        21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 02:00:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I say its more the rapidly growing AA (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, jncca, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          population in Baton Rouge that is making it trend blue.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:39:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Same thing in Shreveport (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            Also, tech and film is on the grow there, attracting some talent from California.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 04:24:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  AA growth part of it (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, ArkDem14

            AA growth plus a leftward swing among whites in the neighborhoods nearest to downtown and LSU (Southdowns, Spanish Town, etc) and a more liberal student population

            21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

            by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 05:37:50 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  How liberal could LSU students be? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jncca

              It's a generic large state university whose student body vote should be pretty Republican.  Black students likely would be underrepresented, whites overrepresented, compared to their population shares thanks to economic and educational disparities, and that pushes them right to offset any otherwise liberal lean compared to older whites.  Unless the younger population in the state reflects massive demographic shift like neighboring Texas, I wouldn't expect Obama to have done well in student-heavy precincts.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:48:39 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah if we compare to Clinton 1996 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Xenocrypt

          the trends are even more stark.

          Clinton only won Boulder County 52-35, Dane County 57-31, etc.  Counties that Obama broke 70% in this year, despite winning by less than Clinton did in 1996.

      •  Pickens County, SC? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        How about Pickens County, SC, the home of Clemson University?  How is that trending?

        (I'm sure that Richland County, SC, the home of USC-Columbia, is following your pattern.)

        •  That's a very R county and stayed that way. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Richland County went from 64% Obama to 66% Obama.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 04:27:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  According to the ACS' 2007-2011 estimates. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      Nearly 70% of Franklin County households had the householder move in after 2000, and nearly half moved in after 2005.  Unfortunately, that doesn't say how many people are new to the county itself, rather than moving around within it.

      Also: As of 2011, 23.1% of adults were estimated to have a terminal bachelor's degree, with 12.5% of adults having a terminal graduate/professional degree.  Conversely, in 2000, 31.8% of adults had a bachelor's degree or higher--21.2% had a bachelor's.  (I'm comparing somewhat different questions, though.)  That's...really not all that different, is it?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:21:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  anyone know what's going on in WA? (0+ / 0-)

    2 senate dems defected today and gave the GOP control?

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:38:12 AM PST

    •  I have no exact grasp why (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      but they stayed Democrats and caucused with Republicans.  Republicans will chair half the committees and Democrats the other half (with three with equal co-chairs).  One of the two idiots will be Majority Leader.  

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:44:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Doesn't Washington... (0+ / 0-)

        Have California-style open primaries, where people can call themselves whatever they want?  

        If so, there's really no reason to change affiliations.  

        •  as much as I appreciate calling the primaries (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          California-style, I think calling them Top Two or even Washington-style is more accurate :P

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 12:41:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hah, okay. (0+ / 0-)

            Seriously though, from what I know from the California process, you can call yourself a Democrat, and no one can stop you.  Thus if Tom thinks it's in his favor to keep calling himself a Democrat, why not do it?  It's not like we can do anything to stop him.  

        •  WA and CA have jungle primaries (0+ / 0-)

              where all candidates run in the same primary. Then the top two votegetters go into the general election. In CA the only exception is for presidential primaries and county party committees. For those offices you have to be registered in the party to vote in the primary.

              Open primaries can still produce party nominees; jungle primaries just put the top two in the runoff.  In an open primary you don't get two candidates of the same party in the general election. Top two is ok for nonpartisan offices like city council or county supervisor but terrible for Congress or the Legislature.

          Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

          by Zack from the SFV on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:43:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Wasserman reporting... (8+ / 0-)

    There will be a huge NYC vote dump this afternoon.

    Are there any down-ballot races which might be affected?  We're talking about potentially an up to 20% increase in vote totals across all of NYC and Long Island.  It's hard to see how that won't swing things a bit.  

  •  Charile Crist and the DNC (12+ / 0-)

    I suspect the reason he didn't switch parties then was because the Obama campaign, who was running the show, preferred him as a "Republican / Independent" surrogate.

  •  On the crawl of the Howey Political Report (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    "COATS PREPARES FOR REELECTION BID: ALL EYES ON EVAN"

    http://howeypolitics.com/

    Howey seems to be thinking that 2016 could be a Coats/Bayh race. One thing to remember is that Evan Bayh is still sitting on a big campaign account and he may have made enough money that he would want his governmental job again. I still bet Evan doesn't run again.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 12:56:42 PM PST

    •  Bayh probably considering Pres candidacy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      also could be Clinton's running mate - IIRC he was believed to be on Hillary's 2008 shortlist (one reason why he was then a finalist on Pres Obama's - along with Biden and Kaine).  

      What did Bayh do when he left - lobbyist for somebody?

      They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:04:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He got a gig at fox news as a comentator (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        I seem him every now then when I'm flipping channels.

        24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

        by lordpet8 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:54:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  LOL, fitting he's on Fox! (7+ / 0-)

          He's definitely a Fox News Democrat.

          That said, if he ran for his old seat, I'd support him in a heartbeat.  Only moral support, mind you, no money.  But that's all most Democrats get from me, I'm not Soros.

          Bayh was a pain in the ass, has no integrity at all with going into K Street after decrying Washington's ways, pretending all his years in office he was somehow above a fray that on the contrary very much absorbed him.

          But for all that, he was actually a pretty loyal vote on the most important votes, except the Iraq War but then we had a lot of bad votes on that one, including from some otherwise loyal liberals.  Same on the Bush tax cuts, I'm pretty sure Bayh voted "aye."

          But still, Indiana is tough, Bayh would win easily, his is one comeback that would succeed.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:54:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I Agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Why the hell would he retire just to run again.  Makes no damn sense.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:24:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I just don't see it (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, ArkDem14, MichaelNY, JBraden

      Bayh left Dems in the lurch in the middle of the campaign (I believe it was actually after the filing deadline or very close to it, requiring Ellsworth to be selected by the IN Dem central committee because nobody had the signatures to run on the Dem ballot). That's worse than an abandonment, that is almost like sabotage. And then he leaves to lobby and take a deal with FOX, which is even worse. His reputation is as charred as can be.

      The guy was always kind of a putz. He thought he could pull off Clinton's centrist strategy from '92, only Clinton had several things going for him that Bayh didn't: world-class charisma, supercharged wonky intelligence and, most significantly, a primary field populated by a lot of second- and third-tier candidates. Oh, and a Democratic Party twelve years out of the White House that was ready to try anything to get it back by then.

      •  It may have been a plus for us in the end (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, JBraden

        Dan Coats, for better or worse, isn't a foaming at the mouth crazy man, an is generally seen as a weak incumbent.  2010 was just too bad a year to overcome in a state like Indiana.

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Daman09 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:33:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Correct me if I'm wrong (7+ / 0-)

          But I'm pretty sure Bayh was leading Coats handily in polling before the former dropped out. He cost the Democrats a seat for no real reason, other than that he was tired of not making seven figures a year. That move exuded so much selfishness.

          Now, if he'd declined to run again in 2010, that would have been one thing. I generally don't hold that against politicians, it's up to them. But he didn't decline, he started to do it, then quit. This I do not forgive. And even a weak-ish GOP incumbent is probably safe in Indiana now, since it went right-to-work anyway.

          •  His quitting comments (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            were exceptionally self-serving and putzish, as you described Bayh in general, and his loyalists helped wreck the Indiana Democratic party this year and refused to step aside for younger blood.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:42:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  "Tired of not making 7 figures a year"? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            That makes no sense at all. He was Governor for two terms before he ran for Senate. And then before that he was Secretary of State. None of those are million-dollar jobs.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:24:15 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'll forgive Bayh if he wins us (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            back the Senate seat or the governor's mansion (and especially if he could help us take back the legislature and/or do away with RTW), but it's going to take quite a bit of penance before I'd want him anywhere near a national ticket.

            I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

            by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:58:54 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  while I'm pissed in the way he left, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        he did a little help when he held rallies for the 3 dems who won house seats in 2006, and for Donnelly's senate campaign this cycle.

        24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

        by lordpet8 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:58:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  And yet, I'd welcome Bayh back with open arms (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        if he can win us that seat. Beggars can sometimes be choosers, but not in Indiana--not right not now, anyway.

        I'm a corporatist McGovernite Atari Democrat...I think.

        by bjssp on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:55:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I also don't see Coats running again (4+ / 0-)

      and it would be a GOP free for all if there is an open seat in 2016. I would say that Rep. Todd Rokita (R-Indianapolis), Todd Young (R-Bloomington), and Marlin Stutzman are all strong possibilities to run. Also, Rep. Elect Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) and Luke Messer (R-Shelbyville) would be interested. St. Sen Mike Delph (R-Westfield) and Secretary of State Connie Lawson (R-Danville) may eye the seat.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:54:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  and for the Democrats? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Also, has Sen.-Elect Donnelly (it must give you such joy to see that) done or planning to do anything to knock some sense into the state party?

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 04:20:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Dems would probably (5+ / 0-)

          look at former Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Evansville), Baron Hill (D-Seymour), Ft. Wayne Mayor Tom Henry (D-Ft. Wayne), Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott (D-Hammond), Supt of Public Instruction Elect Glenda Ritz (D-Indianapolis), St. Rep. Terri Austin (D-Anderson), St. Rep. Scott Pelath (D-Michigan City), Marion County Prosecutor Terry Curry (D-Indianapolis), U.S. Attorney Joe Hogsett (though he may run for Mayor of Indy in 2015) and of course Evan Bayh as possible candidates.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:28:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Curious what makes you think (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        Dan Coats won't run again (not arguing, just asking)?

        •  Coats (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY, JBraden, jncca

          There's a general sense that he's just not that interested in being in the Senate anymore. He was initially appointed to his seat, and he ditched as soon as Bayh announced that he was running for the seat. He seemed to be enjoying his lobbying work throughout the 2000s, especially with the money he was raking in. The general reasoning is that he was drafted by the Republican establishment to run in 2010 because if he hadn't run as the establishment figure, it's possible that John Hostettler could've won the primary (he would've made Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle look brilliant by comparison; check out the "Controversies" tab on his Wiki page).

          He ran a competent campaign to be sure, but his campaign seemed as energetic as his personality, and it seems like he has little love from the base considering that he only won 39.5% of the GOP primary vote. Combine that with the fact that he's been a relative backbencher since his return to the Senate (Has he done a single notable thing in the last two years? At least he was a vocal critic of Clinton while he was in the Senate in the 90s.), and it seems like politics really isn't his thing anymore. I've been viewing him as a one-and-done Senator, and I could see him running back to the lobbying industry. With Republicans having replenished their bench with a bunch of fresh US Representatives, I doubt the establishment would need him as much as they did in 2010.

          The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

          by AndySonSon on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:46:06 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I think Shelli Yoder should run!!1 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem

      Shelli would win!!!11!1

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:27:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would bet she tries again on Todd Young (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but I think she will again have a hard time cracking into Johnson and Morgan Counties.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:00:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  If he runs for something else, it will be Gov (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      He didn't much like being a Senator, and even when he was holding the office he expressed his preference to be called Governor.

      He also burned a lot of a bridges on the way out of the Senate.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:22:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He liked the attention of being (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in the Senate though. It is hard to read him though. I thought he was going to run for Governor in 2012.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:32:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MO8 results (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, ArkDem14, sawolf, MichaelNY

    66/32 is pretty much the absolute basement. The results of the closest statewide were around 57-39 Republican.

    There's a portion of the district that voted McCain/Romney for President and Democrat for every statewide. So it should be treated more like a Southern special election than a Northern special election in regards to the hope involved.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:32:40 PM PST

  •  I have a great map I made a few days ago (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico

    for if Oregon gains a 6th district.  Basically leaves OR-01 at D+5, OR-03 at about D+17, OR-04 at about D+4, OR-05 at about even, all districts that their incumbents (aside from perhaps Blumenauer) would be happy with, is reasonably clean (splits only 4 counties, same as the current map) and creates a very strongly Democratic 6th district in addition.

    I'll publish it fairly soon, along with some other maps I've made.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:48:27 PM PST

    •  OR-02 is the GOP vote sink right? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, SaoMagnifico

      and this map obeys OR's rules on requiring every district to be contiguous by roads?

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 04:19:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes and yes. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        though I should say the counties that are split are not the same, just that there are still only 4 on my map.  Douglas and Deschutes get split rather than Benton and Josephine.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 04:53:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  and the requirement isn't connections by roads (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        but simply transportation connections.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:46:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  WA State Senator Steve Litzlow (R-Mercer Island) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ramesh, MichaelNY

    If you read my posts over on RRH, you'll know that I'm focused like a lazer beam on the GOP making inroads again in socially moderate to liberal, fiscally moderate to moderately-conservative suburbs through running candidates that aren't afraid to buck the GOP on most social issues in order to fit their districts.

    Senator Steve Litzow, a former Mercer Island Councilman, won a district in 2010 that voted 63.3% for President Obama in 2008 and 54.9% for Patty Murray in 2010 that contains almost exclusively Obama precincts. Litzow was mentioned in the Live Digest today, so I figured I'd inquire about him and his electoral successes.

    Litzow's pro-SSM, pro-environmental protections, generally socially moderate to liberal, and was endorsed by groups ranging from some teachers unions to environmental groups to Democratic State Reps to Democratic mayors in his district. He's pretty solidly fiscally conservative, though. For example, here's a snippet of his voting record.

    SB 6636 (Requires a Balanced Budget): Voted Yes
    SB 6378 (Amends State Employee Pension System to reduce rate of return and increases benefit reduction on state employees who retire early, are at least 55 and have 30 years service): Voted Yes
    SB 5940 (Amends Public School Employees Retirement Benefits): Voted Yes
    His campaign co-chair was a Democratic State Rep. Here is a list of his endorsements. http://www.stevelitzow.com/

    After he won by .2% in 2010, Democrats ran a strong candidate against him in 2012 but lost by 54-46. To put that in perspective, one of the Democratic Reps nested in his district ran unoposed and the other got to 58%.

    There are plenty of upper-middle to high income suburban areas much like the Eastside (and SD-41 in particular) around the country that are socially liberal and largely fiscally center-right. The Main Line of Philadelphia (Lower Merion, Radnor, Haverford, and Tredyffin Townships in Montgomery, Delaware, and Chester Counties), the North Shore of suburban Chicago (stretching from Wilmette to Lake Forest), and much of Westchester County and Fairfield Counties are some good examples.

    So, here are my questions for the DKE community.

    1) Does Litzow strike you as a statewide threat? He'd have been perfect in succeeding Dave Reichert, IMO, but thats no longer viable for him seeing as WA SD-41 was largely the blue and blueing part of WA-08 that was removed and added to Adam Smith's newly drawn 9th district.

    2) If the GOP followed the "Litzow formula" nationwide, running Litzow-esque candidates in the sort of areas I mentioned above, do you think it would make inroads in those areas or does the national GOP label just prevent the "Litzow Formula" from working in cases other than WA SD-41?

    By no means am I trying to tell you guys to support Litzow in any way, but it's a fact that he did rather well in a pretty socially liberal and Democratic district. I've asked this question over at RRH (an was lampooned in the process for being "ridiculous" or something like that), and I'm just curious  what you guys think about that.

    I also apologize if this is a weird or inappropriate question to ask on here... I'm just genuinely intellectually curious to see what you guys think about this sort of strategy.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 01:55:28 PM PST

    •  *Litzow, not Litzlow (0+ / 0-)

      Not sure where that came as, seeing as I spelled his name correctly throughout my post.

      Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

      by IllinoyedR on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 02:03:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I feel like (7+ / 0-)

      Litzow is a remnant of the GOP pre-1994, when they were very strong in the suburbs because they were less dominated by the Christian Right.  It's really a tradeoff, you can't have both groups in your coalition.  In Washington, a state with relatively few evangelicals/Mormons (17%), Republicans like this can survive, particularly since they don't have to align with the national GOP on neoconservative foreign policy, conservative social issues, etc.  Nationally, not so much.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 02:17:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  hmm (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew

      1) Possibly but it is getting pretty tough to win statewide as an R in Washington. But it think he'd have much better shot than a traditional conservative. Bucking social issues in the blue states like WA is a must if a Republican really wants to compete at the state level

      2)It really depends on if they can successfully muzzle social conservative groups like NOM. Otherwise you'll get the fiasco of what happened in NY where only 1 of the 4 Replicans who backed Gay Marriage won their race. I don't believe the National GOP would be in favor of the "Litzow Formula"

      Similar talks are going on how the CA GOP should reinvent itself to stay relavant in the state

      24, gay Atari Democrat CA-41

      by lordpet8 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 02:53:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  what question? (0+ / 0-)

      it looks like you just make statements, I don't see a question.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:17:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  My questions (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        "Does Litzow strike you as a statewide threat?"

        "If the GOP followed the "Litzow formula" nationwide, running Litzow-esque candidates in the sort of areas I mentioned above, do you think it would make inroads in those areas or does the national GOP label just prevent the "Litzow Formula" from working in cases other than WA SD-41?"

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:20:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  sorry, somehow I missed that. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCCyclone, bumiputera, askew

          I think it's viable if its a real strategy and coupled with actually moving on policy instead of just having these guys as padding your numbers so you can push the same agenda as before.  There are enough people who vote the same way up and down the ballot that I think there would need to be some softening on social issues nationally for this to work well.  I'm not saying these guys would have to be the new mainstream of the party, but there would need to be some softening.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:27:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yup, I think James nailed it (4+ / 0-)

            The party en masse has to move a little, maybe not quite as far as Litzow himself, but some obvious distance to the left of where the GOP has gone.

            Otherwise, every Republican is tarnished with the disastrous branding of being a "Republican."

            Pro-SSM is a pretty big distinction for Litzow, it's a big "signal" issue that makes people feel he will give the left a fair hearing on a range of issues, even if he doesn't vote against his own party on a majority of them.

            But the Republican Party has never been further than today from a mainstream agenda.  And it's no closer to moving in that direction as far as anyone can tell.

            The real key is the rank-and-file voters.  Those are the crazies.  It's they who move the party right by picking Christine O'Donnell over Mike Castle, and so many countless examples of that same insanity.  When they hand a contested U.S. Senate primary in a purple or blue state to an electable nominee, then the worm will have turned back toward recovery...maybe, if demographic shift doesn't make the GOP irreparable.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:01:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's like State Senator Diane Allen here in NJ (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, DCCyclone

              Republican state senator on the river side of Burlington County (Dem area).  She voted for SSM early this year and was the only GOPer to vote to restore cut family planning AND vote to override Christie's veto.  She (along with ex-St. Senator Barroni, who was pro-SSM before it was cool and pro-labor) is legitimately moderate, has a background as a news anchor (IIRC), and represents a Dem area, but nobody talks her up for higher office or as a model for national Republicans.  A few good apples doesn't do much to hide the widespread rot.

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:07:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  thanks for fleshing out what I meant to (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, DCCyclone

              but forgot to.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:44:06 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  response (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      1. Yes, he could win it in a good year. His views seem similar to Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was reelected in an even more blue state in 2006.

      2. Yes, but the hard part is usually winning the primary. For every Bob Dold! or Andrew Roraback who's a decent fit they usually end up with a bunch of Joe Coors or Vernon Parker types who aren't.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:42:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah the GOP could do a lot better (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      if they ran more moderate candidates, especially socially moderate ones.  The challenge has been convincing GOP primary voters to actually go for these guys.

      Someone like Litzow would indeed be a formidable statewide candidate...if Republicans don't put a conservative Republican ahead of him in the top-two primary.  It's only becoming harder and harder for moderate Republicans to beat conservative Republicans in primaries, and the last few election results should confirm that for you.

      Just look at Congress.  There's maybe three Republicans left in the House I would describe as truly moderate: Richard Hanna, Rod Frelinghuysen, and Dave Reichert.  In the Senate, just Collins and Kirk.

      •  Frelinghuysen isn't moderate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He's just pro-choice, but conservative. Like Lynn Jenkins.

        Meehan is pretty moderate, Hanna definitely is, and Reichert is pretty close.  Upton used to be but has gotten more conservative.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 05:41:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know about the rest of the country, (6+ / 0-)

      but here in New England the Republican label is simply toxic. In New England, all the Representatives in 2013 will be Democrats, all but two Senators will caucus with the Dems, and four of the six Govs are Dems (and of the two others, one is a liberal independent and the other is a highly unpopular Tea Party fluke who will be destroyed in 2014).

      Also, in my home state of Connecticut, Democrats dominate at every level. We have 2 Democratic Senators, 5 out of 5 Democratic Representatives, a Democratic governor, all Democratic statewide elected officials, and large Democratic majorities in both houses of the state legislature. I have a feeling that ex-Gov. Rell's re-election in 2006 will be the last time in a while that CT elects a Republican to a statewide office.

      One last thing: People like Lincoln Chafee and Angus King seem to be the sort of people who you would want to run as Republicans. The fact that they ran as independents instead showed that they realized that they couldn't win as Republicans.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), new ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 05:33:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  He would be a strong statewide candidate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Whether he would win would depend on the political climate. WA Dems seem to benefit from the fact that the local statewide races happen in presidential election years. McKenna and Rossi were pretty good candidates too, albeit more conservative, and comfortable wins by Kerry/Obama didnt help them.

      I think this is a good formula for candidates in blue districts/states. But as others have noted, this might create some conflict within the GOP, since the party overall is pretty conservative.

    •  Hmmm (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      1) If you mean governor or senator, no. Even if it weren't for the "R" next to his name, he'd need a stepping stone position first. Hardly anyone moves from the WA legislature directly to one of those positions (though the two exceptions in the last 50+ years are two iconic ones: Patty Murray, who was a state Senator, and Dan Evans, who was a state Rep., though he was first elected Gov back in the Paleolithic era: 1964); he'd need to be a U.S. Rep., AG, or King Co. Executive to get his name rec up. (And no Republican, not even Litzow, is winning in WA-09 or all of King Co., and AG would be out since his day job is marketing exec, not lawyer.) Maybe if his ultimate goal is to be Supt. of Public Instruction, he could do that (esp. since it's a nonpartisan position), but even though it's statewide that's never been a stepping stone job.

      2) I think there may be a sweet spot in the 52-56% Obama '12 range where that might work, but anything higher than that and you're in a situation where it takes a wave year to win and you're only renting the seat for two years (see Dold, Bob! for starters).

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 05:41:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  How did they think you were being ridiculous? (0+ / 0-)

      For suggesting a Republican could win state-wide in Washington, or for suggesting someone who's fiscally conservative and socially moderate would have the best chance to win as a Republican in that state?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:33:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not really afraid (5+ / 0-)

      that your party could muster national support for a candidate like this in the near future, considering the social conservatism of your base. However, ultimately, social moderation will not save you. Dropping the nativism might help, but minorities are in general economically liberal and believe in a strong role for government.

      •  This (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike

        I do want to see the Republican Party become a relevant and respectable institution in the long term, but moderation on social issues and equal rights (including those for minorities and immigrants) is just part of the puzzle. The GOP needs to back off its unswerving opposition to tax increases and cease its flirtation with fringe beliefs like taxation being unconstitutional, the president of the United States being an illegal alien, the United Nations usurping American sovereignty, and other crazy hoodoo bullshit that just makes them look like fucking idiots to those of us who don't amuse ourselves by taking potshots at stray cats.

        I do believe this country needs a respectable and strong voice of fiscal conservatism. I may not agree with it much, but I think the country needs that voice to say, "So how are we going to pay for it, and why should we pay for it in the first place?"

        What the country doesn't really need is that same voice saying, "I believe there is about 78 to 81 members of the Democratic Party that are members of the Communist Party," or, "All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and the big bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of Hell," or, "The president has demonstrated that he has a default mechanism in him that breaks down the side of race on the side that favors the black person."

        And what the country doesn't need is a fiscal voice, however moderated on social issues, that says compromise is equivalent to loss and that any revenue increase is completely verboten, and which is willing to hold a flagging American economy, millions of job-seekers, millions of military veterans, and more hostage just so they don't have to tell a particularly egomaniacal advocate to go fuck himself.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:44:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  AZ-03/CO-GOV: Grijalva to Interior, Salazar to CO? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Article from EENews, an environmental news industry site, that is behind a paywall discusses push by environmentalists for Rep. Grijalva to be new Sec. of Interior.

    Also mentions that Salazar would stay on if he could run for Gov of Colorado in 2014, but would that mean he'd challenge Hicklenlooper in a primary?

    One close friend of Salazar in Colorado said the secretary will likely stay if the president asks him to. But a lot will also depend on other political factors including whether Salazar is able to run for Colorado governor in 2014 when current Gov. John Hickenlooper's (D) term is up.

    "I think Ken will stay unless there is something pulling him back," said Salazar's friend, who asked not to be named.

    While many expect Salazar to stay, possible replacement nominees include outgoing Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire (D), former Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter (D), Interior Deputy David Hayes or retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.), although none of those people has publicly indicated interest in the job (Greenwire, Nov. 2).

    21, Male, LA-02, LA-06 (former), TX-08 (home), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 02:08:02 PM PST

    •  Hickenlooper isn't term-limited, though. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, BeloitDem

      So, uh, what?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:19:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unless Hick is one and done, that's a no go (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      What else could Salazar do?  Could he run against Tipton?

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 04:16:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think he wants to head home to Co. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        I remember reading something about him and his wife being the primary care givers to a grandchild with special needs.  Him running for Congress would keep him in Washington, whereas as Governor he'd of course live in Co full time.  

        They have the billionaires, We have the Big Dog!

        by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 04:22:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Would he have a shot in a primary (0+ / 0-)

      against Hickenlooper?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:36:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd like to get Rep. Grijalva... (0+ / 0-)

      Out of the House, where I think he's a perennial liability, and I've never been wild about Secy. Salazar. But if Gov. Hickenlooper wants a second term, why primary him? I assume the discussion is whether Hick will run again.

      Gov. Gregoire seems like the natural choice for Interior if Salazar doesn't stay on.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:23:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Liability how? (0+ / 0-)

        Do you mean as an electoral underperformer in his district, or what?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:45:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I believe he was the biggest underperformer... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Of 2010. If not the biggest, then way up there.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:47:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He actually did win (0+ / 0-)

            So probably not the biggest underperformer, but clearly up there.

            What about this year?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:05:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He did fine this year (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              with a more Democratic district.  But he shot himself in the foot in 2010 when he initially seemed to approve of a boycott after SB1070 (legislation which I dislike as much as anyone, but a boycott of the state would have been economically harmful to many of the Latinos whose interests it was intended to support.)

              I also wasn't impressed with Grijalva on health care reform.  While a lot of main site DK posters lionized him for pushing for the public option, he didn't make it a reality, and he was particularly unhelpful with his comments after the Massachusetts special Senate election jeopardized the passage of anything for a while.

              37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:28:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  This year's biggest underperformers (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I would definitely suspect Tierney and Cicilline are up there, as well as Hanabusa again.  You could also argue Brad Schneider's victory was smaller than it should have been in a 63% Obama (57.5% this year) seat.  Overall there weren't many serious underperformers this year. Our candidates generally won all the races they were expected to, and none of our reps in really blue districts had close calls besides Tierney.

          •  Carnahan almost lost a 60% Obama seat (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen, redrelic17, askew

            Heinrich also had a close call in a 60% Obama seat, as did Costa.  Hanabusa barely took back a 70% Obama seat (though that was against an incumbent).  Connolly almost lost in a 57% Obama seat.  Dold holding an open 61% Obama seat was also frustrating, but there was a fair amount of overperformance from Obama there.

            Grayson getting thumped by 18 points in a district Obama got 53% in was also pretty sad, as was Kosmas losing by 19 points in a 49% Obama district.  Kanjorski lost by 9 in a 57% Obama district.  Duffy picked up a 56% Obama seat by 8 points, and Bucshon picked up a 48% Obama seat by 20 points.

            In short, there was a ton of bad performances in 2010 all across the board.  Grijalva winning by 6 in a 57% Obama seat wasn't as bad as a ton of other Democrats that year.

            •  Considering how underfunded his opponent was... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              It was pretty unimpressive.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:13:17 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Hanabusa actually didn't perform very well (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              This election either. But assuming Djou doesn't try for round 4, she'll likely be fine until 2016 when she runs for Inouye's open seat [/Carnac the Magnificent]

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

              by HoosierD42 on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 01:38:15 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Please No (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Hanabusa is a hugely underperforming elected. I'd rather that that Tulsi follow Inouye.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 02:06:56 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  In fairness... (5+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, sawolf, jncca, Skaje, HoosierD42

                  She's been running against the only Republican in the state whose name isn't mud twice in a row, and her district is the less liberal of the two.

                  Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 11:29:05 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  It's not like (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  HoosierD42, MichaelNY

                  Republicans could actually pick up a senate seat against Hanabusa.  Lingle just got destroyed by 26 points and is almost certainly done with politics.  Djou sounds like he's done losing as well.  Duke Aiona is only interested in governor, and even then he sounds like he's done there, having gone back to the private sector this year.

                  There is no GOP bench in Hawaii outside of them.  They don't even have any viable state senators...not even former state senators.

                  So we can nominate whoever we want (out of the likely candidates) without regards for electability.  Hanabusa has a strong progressive record, and would be a fine Senator.  Gabbard came out of relative obscurity (one-term city councilwoman) to suddenly find herself in Congress.  She has decidedly cast herself as a progressive now (and I am giving her the benefit of the doubt), but she does not have a solid record yet.

                  Hanabusa only underperformed because she went up against Djou again.  Gabbard got to overperform because the GOP put up a some dude.

          •  doesn't matter anymore (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            CF of Aus, askew

            His district is up to 63% Obama. He could burn the state flag while sniffing a line of coke off of Casey Anthony's ass and still get elected.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 11:54:53 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting but unlikely (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      I have a hard time envisioning the Obama Administration giving a cabinet to Raul Grijalva. Oh he has been a staunch advocate for progressive causes but does that make him the right choice to lead a department? I honestly don't think so and think he'd probably be a liability.

      Jeff Bingaman would be a great choice though I imagine after over 30 years in the Senate, he's inclined to stay put in New Mexico. Tom Udall frankly would perfect but unfortunately that won't happen since the Republicans would pick his replacement

      Bill Ritter was a disappointment as governor but he was a staunch environmentalist and works as the director for the Center of New Energy Economy so this could work for him.

      I imagine Gregoire would be a solid choice as well as Haynes though I know nothing about the latter.

    •  Weird this is coming up again (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Grijalva was floated four years ago too for the same job, but wasn't picked. It would probably not be a bad idea for Obama to pick one outspoken progressive for the Cabinet, as Clinton did with Reich. But Grijalva is probably not enough of a team player to be seriously considered, he was off the reservation during health care time and again, and undoubtedly caused the Admin. serious headaches. If he hadn't completely destroyed his reputation, Ahnold would probably have been a good choice for the job. I didn't love him as governor, but he was excellent on environmental issues.

      •  I really don't like the term "off the reservation" (0+ / 0-)

        and it's probably especially inapt in referring to a Mexican-American who probably has some Native Mexican blood. I know you mean no harm at all by using the expression, but just as I would hope no-one would use the term "Indian giver" (meaning someone who gives something and then tries to take it back) that I remember from my early childhood in the late 60s/70s, we can also get rid of this term, out of sensitivity.

        All that said, the substance of your contribution is much appreciated, and I hope you stick around DKE.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:21:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  PV: Obama now up 3.68% (5+ / 0-)

    50.97 to 47.29.

    4,747,000 votes.

    Let all the Bush tax cuts expire

    by Paleo on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:23:38 PM PST

  •  MN-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, askew

    David Hann seems to be setting himself up to be the angry loyal opposition candidate in 2014.
    http://www.minnpost.com/...

  •  2008/2012 CD correlation watch. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Still very close to 0.98.  The current top under-performances?

    IL-15    Shimkus, John    -6.62%
    UT-01    Bishop, Rob    -6.31%
    KY-05    Rogers, Hal    -5.58%
    IN-02    Walorski, Jackie    -5.57%
    IN-04    Rokita, Todd    -5.35%
    WI-08    Ribble, Reid    -5.23%
    IN-03    Stutzman, Marlin    -4.90%
    IL-14    Hultgren, Randy    -4.83%
    IL-10    Schneider, Brad    -4.63%
    IL-06    Roskam, Peter    -4.62%
    WI-07    Duffy, Sean    -4.15%
    MT-AL    Daines, Steve    -4.12%
    MO-08    Emerson, Jo Ann    -3.78%
    WI-03    Kind, Ron    -3.74%
    ND-AL    Cramer, Kevin    -3.67%
    IN-05    Brooks, Susan    -3.60%
    IL-12    Enyart, William    -3.56%
    MI-02    Huizenga, Bill    -3.54%
    CT-04    Himes, Jim    -3.43%
    MI-06    Upton, Fred    -3.29%
    MI-01    Benishek, Dan    -3.19%
    CA-33    Waxman, Henry    -3.17%
    IL-08    Duckworth, Tammy    -3.14%
    IL-05    Quigley, Mike    -3.09%
    NV-02    Amodei, Mark    -3.09%
    IL-07    Davis, Danny    -3.06%
    MI-10    Miller, Candice    -3.05%
    MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.    -2.89%
    IL-09    Schakowsky, Jan    -2.89%
    SD-AL    Noem, Kristi    -2.84%
    VA-09    Griffith, Morgan    -2.74%
    NV-03    Heck, Joe    -2.73%
    TX-25    Williams, Roger    -2.60%
    CT-01    Larson, John    -2.49%
    Not sure how many of those are new--again, note how KY-05 was the big drop in KY.

    Big over-performances?

    AZ-07    Pastor, Ed    8.15%
    FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana    6.27%
    AK-AL    Young, Don    6.23%
    FL-26    Garcia, Joe    5.30%
    FL-25    Diaz-Balart, Mario    5.18%
    LA-01    Scalise, Steve    5.11%
    CA-34    Becerra, Xavier    4.86%
    TX-29    Green, Gene    4.83%
    AZ-03    Grijalva, Raul    4.71%
    LA-06    Cassidy, Bill    4.25%
    CA-46    Sanchez, Loretta    4.14%
    CA-51    Vargas, Juan    4.11%
    TX-33    Veasey, Mark    4.03%
    LA-05    Alexander, Rodney    3.63%
    CA-32    Napolitano, Grace    3.55%
    CA-38    Sanchez, Linda    3.51%
    MS-03    Harper, Gregg    3.26%
    MS-04    Palazzo, Steven    3.19%
    MS-01    Nunnelee, Alan    3.08%
    CA-19    Lofgren, Zoe    3.07%
    CA-41    Takano, Mark    3.01%
    FL-09    Grayson, Alan    3.00%
    CA-17    Honda, Michael    2.91%
    MS-02    Thompson, Bennie    2.90%
    OH-03    Beatty, Joyce    2.83%
    CA-47    Lowenthal, Alan    2.77%
    GA-13    Scott, David    2.74%
    CA-35    Negrete McLeod, Gloria    2.65%
    SC-02    Wilson, Joe    2.60%
    LA-02    Richmond, Cedric    2.59%
    CA-29    Cardenas, Tony    2.55%
    CA-40    Roybal-Allard, Lucille    2.54%
    CA-23    McCarthy, Kevin    2.50%
    CA-09    McNerney, Jerry    2.48%
    Remarkable amount of Cali, of course.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 03:51:47 PM PST

  •  Taget, who do you think can beat Grimm? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    This corrupt slime must not be given a free pass.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 04:13:21 PM PST

    •  Yeah 53% is not exactly (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, JBraden

      an awe-inspiring number for Grimm's re-election.  There's a theory that Hurricane Sandy held down GOP numbers on Staten Island, but it couldn't have been by more than a few percent.  Grimm should be targeted, with a Democrat who actually knows how to campaign.

      •  I know Mark Murphy's mother, and... (5+ / 0-)

        ...she told me on election day, during the day, that she feared Mark could lose by 20 because Grimm had really taken advantage of Sandy to make himself look responsive.  I thought that day she was being a little too gloomy, but it's her son and I know as a dad there's no being purely rational about your own kids, emotional investment is built-in and swings you wildly.  She was up there helping Mark with field and was going to be there through the election, but her plans changed and she returned a little early and was able to help at our polling place like she usually does.

        IMO Mark Murphy overperformed compared to very early expectations, when it was reported he was not well-regarded as a Congressional candidate by NYC party leaders.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:50:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Two names come to mind (4+ / 0-)

      Grimm's predecessor Mike McMahon or State Senator Diane Savino would probably tough opponents for Grimm, especially if the investigations into him bear fruit.

      Of course there's always the right now slim chance that Vito Fossella decides to make a comeback, especially if Grimm is forced to resign.

      •  savino might be a smart choice but I (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        would hate to reward her.

        Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, "If you agree with Bush's economic policy, Cheney's foreign policy, and Santorum's social policy, you loved Romney's speech" - James Carville (aka the Ragin Cajun) on the Colbert Report

        by CF of Aus on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 01:31:56 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Cusick and Savino (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It is doubtful McMahon will run.  His wife has a career as a judge and he makes boatloads of money out of congress.

      Cusick would love to run but does not want to risk his seat.  He did want to run in 2008 after Vito Fossella' dropped out but was muscled out by McMahon.  And he'd certainly run if there was a special election.

      Cusick is also not McMahon.  McMahon was very maverick.  A very dynamic campaigner.  Someone who had fight hard in most of his races for the Democratic Party nomination.  Very much the protypical Irish pol.  Michael Cusick due to family connections (his father was a Democratic Party bigwig) and being the chief of Staff to the former State Assemblyman more or less inherited the seat and has not had really any competitive races.  The last race was his most competitive.  But given the district has been gerrymandered in something he literally cannot lose in that does not say much.  He's very vanilla.  Soft spoken.  Very deliberate.  So you could argue how tested he is for such a tough race.

      But he'd have the money, the press, name ID, and a reputation as a moderate who can appeal to conservative voters.  Particularly given that he's pro-life.  At least on paper he is the strongest candidate besides McMahon that we have.

      Diane Savino is tough and pugnacious.  The nomination would be hers if she wanted it.  Though Cusick gets first dibs.  The IDC stuff would help her in a general election campaign.

      And as much as I hate saying so.  Most people within the Democratic Party either don't know about what is happening in Albany.  Or are unsure of what is going on and in shock and just hoping Diane knows what she is doing.  If there is any indignant outrage I have yet to see it.  It makes me question whether I am just wasting my time.

      Unless there is a special I'd bet on neither running.  And the best you could do being Mark Murphy if he is even interested.

      Also a few things about the election.

      1) The district is more Republican because of redistricting.  Under the old district Murphy would be about tied with Grimm.  Basically a solid reliable Democratic neighborhoods were eliminated in Brooklyn.  And the number of conservative Orthodox Jews were added.

      2) The numbers have been shrinking.  It is at about 52 - 47 right now with about 3 thousand ballots remaining in Brooklyn.  Which means in a tougher district Murphy is going to tie the percentage McMahon got last time.

      3) The storm effectively ended the campaign and gave a boost to all incumbents.  Particularly someone like Grimm who faced an opponent whose entire campaign was built on harsh attacks.

      Voters got to see Grimm trying to help with the hurricane for the last two weeks of the campaign instead.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Tue Dec 11, 2012 at 02:10:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  So I just realized when doing my political average (0+ / 0-)

    of statewide races for the states, uselectionatlas.org leaves off a bunch of races.  No big deal I guess, I was going to recalculate them all for 2006-2012 anyway (outside of Pres).

    So it's all well and good, I first was doing Kentucky so that meant looking up the secretary of state's website for the 2007 and 2011 Agriculture Commissioner's race by county.  2011 is no big deal since they use ENR and it's very user friendly.

    Then I get to 2007 and... it's all text based, but worse than just that since there is no division between candidate name, county, and numbers.  I'm seriously not looking forward to getting that into excel in the format uselectionatlas ues (to easily fit into the formulas I've previously written into other spreadsheets).

    Anyone got any tips to save time?  Also, does anyone happen to have those sorts of races in their own spreadsheets? I already have every statewide race from uselectionatlas from 2004 to 2010, but there are plenty of states where they're randomly missing a race or two.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 04:20:23 PM PST

  •  Overperformances (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, MichaelNY

    I think Nick Rahall overperformed by about 20 points in WV-03 but we must not have those numbers yet.  Jim Matheson (UT-04) about 15 points probably, and Mike McIntyre about 10 (NC-07).  I don't know of any Republicans (who weren't running unopposed) that did nearly that well.

  •  WI State Senate by Pres (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike

    This article goes into great detail how redistricting really limits the ability to take back the State Senate and Assembly: http://www.jsonline.com/...

    It really is quite dismal in the Senate and even worse than the Assembly.   For the Senate, even while Obama had a decent win, he only won 15 of the Senate districts.  Going forward, Lehman is a sure loss, then Schultz will be a good opportunity but only when he retires.  The next prospect would be the 19th once Ellis retires.  That would give us 16 seats.  For the majority that would require some lifting.  To my surprise the dropoff in the 14th and 18th was not that much, but the bench in the 14th is not great and I do not know if King would be interested in another comeback.  For 2014, the best targets seem to be Moulton and Lasee, particularly the latter, but any candidate would seem to have an uphill climb.

    Social Democrat, WI-05

    by glame on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 05:16:01 PM PST

    •  Saw that article (0+ / 0-)

      I only wish they presented the data on senate and assembly in a more user-friendly way, it'd be useful.

    •  Also, interesting that Obama barely lost the 18th (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      King didn't really over perform.

      •  It is kind of depressing (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Is it just me or does it seem like local Republicans are much more likely to overperform than Democrats?  I mean look how many Republicans were able to survive in Obama 08 seats (and (Obama 2012 for that matter), but only a handful of Democrats survived in Walker 2010 seats.  Off the top of my head I can only think of Tom Nelson being able to consistently overperform in a manner needed to take back the Senate and Assembly, but then again I think very highly of him.

        Social Democrat, WI-05

        by glame on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:37:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  SD-24 closest to statewide average (0+ / 0-)

      I'm quite shocked the WI GOP didn't make a more serious play for Lassa's district.

      Also, SD-14 took in the vast majority of Columbia County in redistricting, and Columbia County is trending blue, as it voted for Walker in 2010 and voted for Barrett in the recall, and the 2012 Pres numbers there (56.3% Obama - 42.7 Romney) indicate a possible long-trend term blue trend in Columbia County. Luther Olsen should be a 2016 target, in fact, he should have been a 2012 target, however, DPW didn't make any serious effort to recruit a credible candidate and Margarete Worthington never put any real effort into her campaign.

      Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:45:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Looking back at the SD-13 recall... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...Fitzgerald may have actually underperformed quite a bit in the recalls.

      Looking at the 2012 Pres numbers for the new SD-13 (55.7% Romney - 43.1% Obama), the StSen numbers for the old SD-13 during the recalls (58.4% Fitzgerald - 40.7% Compas), and the Gov numbers for Wisconsin as a whole during the recalls (53.1% Walker - 46.3% Barrett), I'm guesstimating that Walker probably got 63% or 64% of the vote in the old SD-13 (the old SD-13 was slightly redder than the new SD-13), and, if that's the case, Fitzgerald may have underperformed Walker by 5-6 points during the recalls.

      That would tell me that neither of the Fitzgerald brothers are electable statewide, in fact, had Jeff Fitzgerald (Scott's brother/outgoing Wisconsin State Assembly speaker) been the Republican nominee in WI-Sen, Baldwin would have probably won by a noticeably larger margin than she did against Thompson.

      Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 10:29:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Fresno, CA statment of vote (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DrPhillips

    I found a document which is the statement of vote for Fresno Ca, but my computer kept crashing while downloading the PDF.

    Fresno County Board of Directors meeting agenda. As far as I could see the document is not at the Registrar of Voters site.

    http://www2.co.fresno.ca.us/...

    http://www2.co.fresno.ca.us/...

    7000 pages.

    47 mb

  •  NY-St Senate: 3 New Developments (6+ / 0-)

    First, Klein and Skelos pledged to keep minority senate members involved in decision-making. This includes possibly having non-IDC Democrats have committee leadership.

    http://capitaltonightny.ynn.com/...

    Second, Terry Gipson (D) appears to have won his race. Saland has instructed his lawyers to stop objecting to ballots. Gipson will also caucus with the Democrats. Some thought he might join the IDC. We should know the results in the next couple of days.

    http://polhudson.lohudblogs.com/...

    Third, we could see some contested ballots counted on Wednesday in the Amedore-Tkaczyk

    http://blog.timesunion.com/...

    M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

    by slacks on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:47:51 PM PST

  •  WA state senate (10+ / 0-)

    Dem leader says the party will not support Tom next time, will field a challenger.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 06:52:08 PM PST

    •  Fantastic (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      We could use the GOP's help on this one...it's important that they field a decent challenger as well to squeeze Tom from both sides, pushing him to third in the top-two.  Otherwise he is likely to scrape by on conservative votes and if it's him versus another Dem in the runoff, Tom is probably favored as Republicans will back him.

  •  Great, there's a discrepency (0+ / 0-)

    between the sum each individual county's votes and the number provided for results statewide for the 2010 Land Commissioner race in Arkansas.  That's the only one I looked up and there doesn't seem to be any reason or explanation why that would be so, I checked multiple times.  Seriously AR-SOS, format your shit so that god forbid someone can easily get the information into a spreadsheet.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

    by sawolf on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:55:41 PM PST

  •  WI-Gov, WI-AG, WI-SD-27 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Dane County Supervisor Jenni Dye is apparently being interviewed by Emerge Wisconsin, a group that recruits Democratic women to run for public office in Wisconsin, despite the fact that Dye herself is already an elected official.

    I'm not too sure why Emerge Wisconsin would be interviewing someone who is already an elected official, but this probably means one of two things, since Dye herself has stated that she doesn't have any plans to mount a gubernatorial run in 2014:

    A) Dye may be interested in a WI-AG run.
    B) Jon Erpenbach may be privately considering a WI-Gov run, and Dye (who lives in Fitchburg, which is in WI-SD-27, Erpenbach's state senate district) may be interested in a run for Erpenbach's state senate seat.

    I'm thinking B is the more likely of the two, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Dye mount a WI-AG run a couple of decades from now.

    Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:56:27 PM PST

    •  perhaps they're talking to her about (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      joining their board or something?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 07:58:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's another possibility (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Dye, in addition to being a county legislator in Dane County, Wisconsin, moonlights as the executive director of NARAL Pro-Choice Wisconsin, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if she would consider joining Emerge Wisconsin's board.

        Dye is quite a bit more powerful in Wisconsin politics than your typical county legislator.

        Elizabeth Warren on the Senate Banking Committee is a BFD!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:38:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  IN-09: By the numbers. (5+ / 0-)

    I have been crunching some numbers in IN-09. Shelli Yoder ran way ahead of President Obama in several of the counties in the southern part of the district. She was +14 in Scott, +11 in Washington, +10 in Harrison and Crawford, and +9 in Orange. However, she was only +1 in Johnson and had no advantage in Morgan, where she only drew about 30%. She came out with 44.55%, running ahead of Obama, who received by my estimate 40.70% in the district. Not too bad for an underfunded candidate who never ran for office before.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:26:35 PM PST

    •  She probably deserves some funding (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      if she runs again. I love her and hope she finds some way to get into government - if not in elective office, in appointive office.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:24:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Shelli Yoder... (0+ / 0-)

        Is the Bob Massie that DKE actually took seriously.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:26:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I hope Democrats (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, ndrwmls10

        got Shelli Yoder and Brandon Mullen to run again in Indiana. Mullen may have won if the state/national party had given him the resources they steered to Crooks in IN-08, who had a disappointing showing. Let's also hope the Libertarians file a candidate in IN-09 next time to take away some votes from Todd Young.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:34:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Inouye hospitalized at Walter Reed (6+ / 0-)

    for issue with oxygen intake. Doesn't seem too serious, but you never know with these things. Hopefully, it will be resolved quickly.

    http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/...

    He's apparently been in and out of treatment since Thursday, but this is the first I've heard of it. Apologies if it's been posted already!

  •  Just finished a Democratic gerrymander of WA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    WA-01 at 59% Obama ('08 numbers), WA-08 at 59.5% Obama (enough to throw off Reichert), WA-03 at 53.5% (what was it before redistricting?), and, just for fun, I drew WA-05 to just under 48% Obama.

    Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 08:59:09 PM PST

    •  So just 1 vote sink? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      I drew a map that had 2 and let me get the 3rd up to 55% Obama while all the other seats are perfectly safe.  I'm not entirely satisfied with it though, since some of the blue seats are ridiculously packed, but I'd much rather draw two vote sinks since McMorris Rogers isn't losing whereas Herrera Beutler could.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:03:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, just one. (0+ / 0-)

        Gotta create that potential.  

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:08:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I drew a map a while ago that put (0+ / 0-)

          Spokan and Pullman into a Democratic seat that stretches along the the north to Whatcom County and takes up as much Democratic precincts as possible. I'm pretty sure I was able to make 8 Safe Democratic districts and 1 Lean Democratic district. It will be a death match between McMorris Rogers and Hastings. I don't believe Herrera Beutler or Reichert would have anywhere to run.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:15:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I wanted to keep WA-04 and 05 (0+ / 0-)

            out of any counties bordering the ocean or the Sound so as to make it a realistic gerrymander.

            Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

            by KingofSpades on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:20:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  That's what mine does (0+ / 0-)

            though it was really only a first draft.

            On the other hand when you baconmander the state you can get all 9 districts over 60% Obama and 54% Murray.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

            by sawolf on Mon Dec 10, 2012 at 09:54:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

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