I'm now convinced that between the offer from the Whitehouse, the Plan B Republican headcount, Rep. Pelosi's position that she will support President Obama's compromise, and Sen. Reid's most recent statement that any deal to be entertained by him must come from negotiation between Rep. Boehner and POTUS.... well long story short, we can now make a good guess about what the deal will look like.
And it's pretty clear that the president wants a deal and does not want to face debt ceiling shenanigans in his last term. He wants to get other things, like immigration and tax reform done as part of his legacy while he still has the chance and the mandate. And its PBO who holds the strongest hand at the table right now.
Disclaimer... I don't like this deal, but I'm just a retired (i.e. unemployed) old lady so nobody's going to ask for my opinion (now that the election is over).
But here's my prediction anyway.
I predict that centrist Dems and Repubs will leave the flanks behind and pass this deal. It will come from Obama and the Republican leadership junta, so it will be considered "very serious indeed" and the Republican leaders and Pelosi/Hoyer and Reid will whip it hard.
The deal will raise taxes on income over some number between $400,000 and $1 million, and probably give a mild hike to unearned income (cap gains, dividends) along the lines of the president's latest compromise offer.
Of course it will include the Social Security cut by changing the way inflation raises are calculated, this has already been blessed by all the key players. This is now called "strengthening the progam" in beltway newspeak.
I can't imagine that any of the key players and thier sponsors will allow meaningful cuts to harm military contractors, so that will be fixed.
The debt ceiling will get raised for 1, even maybe 2 years (in time to spice up 2014?).
Probably more cuts to other 47% spending but nothing that makes it unpalatable to the Democrat centrists. And probably some infrastucture money for the President because he really wants it.
I wouldn't be surprised if right before the end of the year all parties make an agreement to extend the year end date to give them time to work out details, write the bill, and get it passed. Everyone will be so optimistic with real progress etc etc etc that a few weeks or months more time to dot the i's on the president's signature would seem more than reasonable to a very serious person.
That's my take on where this fiscal farce is going. Just an opinion.