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9:42 AM PT: AR-Gov: PPP is out with a new poll (PDF) for a private client called Jobs Now, which has little visibility on the web but which local media describe as a "union-funded think tank." The numbers seem aimed at showing that Democratic AG Dustin McDaniel has been seriously wounded by revelations that he carried on an affair with an attorney who had business before his office: He trails Republican front-runner Asa Hutchinson by a painful 46-33, with just a 25-40 favorability rating versus 39-30 for Hutchinson.

So why would a union group want to raise doubts about a Democrat? Very possibly because they'd prefer to see a different Democrat get in the race—and secure the nomination. Talk Business says that Jobs Now is "normally pretty friendly with Bill Halter," the former lieutenant governor who unsuccessfully ran against ex-Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the Democratic primary in 2010. Halter's bid was heavily backed by labor, so it'd make sense if the same coalition rallied around him once more. (A spokesman says that Halter is still "seriously considering" a run.) Of course, there are no Halter numbers in this poll, and even if he's not damaged in the way McDaniel appears to be, holding this seat looks like a seriously uphill fight for Team Blue.

10:29 AM PT: CO-06: Rep. Mike Coffman is assuredly one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents heading into 2014: He narrowly escaped defeat in November thanks to a left-leaning third-party spoiler candidate, and he sits in one of the bluest districts occupied by a Republican (at 52 percent Obama). And here's one possible contender who might try to do him in: former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Romanoff had considered a bid last cycle, but wound up deferring to state Rep. Joe Miklosi. You probably remember Romanoff from his ill-fated primary challenge to newly-appointed Sen. Michael Bennet in 2010 (one which saw him sell his own house to finance his campaign); that race seemed to generate a lot of ill will toward Romanoff, but if he can overcome that past and rally support for a go at Coffman, he could prove to be a strong candidate.

10:32 AM PT: FL-Gov: This story cracked me up. Remember Seamus!

10:39 AM PT: ME-Sen: Ordinarily, I wouldn't even bother with something like this—it sounds purely like a rumor, and it's a week old, to boot. But here's the thing: In response to a query about whether he'd run against Sen. Susan Collins in the GOP primary, ex-Treasurer Bruce Poliquin wouldn't offer any comment at all. Typically in this sort of situation, you either say something vague like, "I'm focused on my current job" or "I support the incumbent," but total silence is a bit unusual. Poliquin is known as an outspoken conservative, and he also just got turned out of his gig as treasurer because Democrats re-took the legislature in November, so it's not inconceivable to imagine that he's looking for something else to do. We can only pray!

11:15 AM PT: Polltopia: Two well-known Democratic pollsters announced on Tuesday that they will be merging: Anzalone Liszt Research and Grove Insight will combine to form the polling superteam of Anzalone Liszt Grove Research. Good luck to all involved, and may the Force be with you!

12:00 PM PT: MA-Sen: Ed Markey's going to be happy: Fellow Dem Rep. Mike Capuano just announced on Tuesday that he won't run in the expected special election to replace John Kerry, who has been nominated for Secretary of State. After the establishment rallied around Markey and made it clear there was no appetite for a contested nomination battle, Capuano got a bit testy, claiming that "the big names of our party are trying to choose our nominee for us." Well, the rhetoric wasn't matched with action, and Capuano will instead remain in the House.

Capuano's decision is also good news for progressives more generally, since his potential entry posed the greatest risk of the liberal vote being split between himself and Markey, thus giving conservaDem Stephen Lynch a shot at a plurality win. Now Lynch, the only remaining prominent name still thinking about a bid, has a much more difficult (if not almost impossible) calculus to consider. And while a few other potential contenders still lurk out there, there's no one left with the personal wealth or name recognition to make an immediate impact. It looks like Markey's getting a lot closer to wrapping this one up.

12:18 PM PT: MN-06: Umm....

1:03 PM PT: VA-Gov: By dint of being the only guy to actually file paperwork with the state Republican Party, AG Ken Cuccinelli just became the Virginia GOP's official nominee for this fall's gubernatorial race. (You'll recall, of course, that Cuccinelli partisans eliminated the traditional primary in favor of a convention, a move which prompted Cuccinelli's only rival, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, to quit the race and openly moot a third-party run.) Meanwhile, the Kooch also says he'll stay on as attorney general even while running for governor, even though the last six AGs all resigned in their final year to focus on campaigning.

That's actually good news for Democrats, though, since it means Cuccinelli will, as a state official, be prohibited from fundraising until the current legislative session concludes on Feb. 23. And money is indeed likely to be Cuccinelli's greatest weakness (though I'm sure the RGA will prop him up extensively): Both he and putative Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe just announced having around $1 million in cash-on-hand, and they've each raised roughly that amount as well. But here's the problem: Cuccinelli pulled in that sum in the last six months of 2012. T-Mac scraped it together in just the month of December alone. Say what you will about McAuliffe, but the guy sure can rake in the dough.

P.S. In case you were curious, the normal filing deadline for gubernatorial candidates in Feb. 28, but at this point, it's hard to imagine any other Democrats stepping up to challenge McAuliffe.

2:27 PM PT: NJ-Gov: Jesus, I swear, I really thought Bill Pascrell had already said no to a gubernatorial run. I mean hell, this is what he said just last week:

"I'm not pursuing that position."
Now, okay, he also said he found the idea of a race against GOP Gov. Chris Christie "intriguing," but I figured he meant he considered the notion, felt it was somewhat attractive, but then abandoned it. Yet here we are now:
As for his own political future, Pascrell is involved in discussions about the governor's race.

"That's another story. I can't get into the details. I had a long conversation with [state] Sen. [Richard] Codey this morning," he said. "Many of the people that have talked to me in the last three weeks have urged me, this octogenarian, to consider doing this thing."

Pascrell is 75 years old.

"I have a lot of work in my district, not only with Sandy but it's a new district. I lost 75 percent of my district. I had to fight a primary. It took a toll on my family," he said. "And I'm back, I'm ready but I'm not ready to make any announcements. I'm not even close. I would say in the next three weeks you will have a clear picture on who's running."

These shifting, oracular pronouncements make me want to tear my hair out! (Though I do love Roll Call's Abby Livingston fact-checking Pascrell on his own age.)

2:36 PM PT: LOL! Rick Scott's dog was literally sent to a farm upstate!

3:15 PM PT: WV-Sen: Over the weekend, the Charleston Gazette published a piece on potential Democratic replacements for retiring Sen. Jay Rockefeller that would make the Great Mentioner proud. While we've already gone over most of the names in detail, there are a few new suggestions:

Retired Adjutant General Allen Tackett (former head of the West Virginia National Guard)

Ralph Baxter, CEO of Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe (a major national law firm)

State Sen. Corey Palumbo

State Sen. Erik Wells

Ex-state Sen. Jim Humphreys

Ex-party chair Nick Case

Additionally, one major possible candidate has pulled himself from consideration: ex-Gov. Gaston Caperton, who served from 1989 until 1997. Caperton had the sort of profile that would have made him an instant contender (and perhaps even cleared the field, at least partially), but he's 72 years old and says his political career "began and will probably end" with his tenure as governor.

3:46 PM PT: NC-Sen: PPP is back to their usual habit of polling their home state of North Carolina on a monthly basis, so I think this gives us our first proper trendlines on any 2014 race. There is, of course, no reason to expect things to have changed much in just four short weeks, especially for such a nascent campaign without a single declared Republican—and indeed, they have not. Here's how Dem Sen. Kay Hagan fares (with December in parens):

• 46-40 (45-39) vs. Rep. Renee Ellmers
• 45-39 (48-40) vs. Rep. Patrick McHenry
• 45-37 (48-39) vs. Rep. George Holding
• 47-40 (49-39) vs. Rep. Virginia Foxx
• 48-38 (47-37) vs. state House Speaker Thom Tillis
• 46-38 vs. Rep. Robert Pittenger
• 47-38 vs. state Sen. Phil Berger

Honestly, I feel bad for Tom Jensen, who will have to struggle to find something to write about this race over a dozen more times until the primary, because I've already run out of ideas. (I would, however, be amused if someone could squeeze a "sky is falling" narrative out of this poll. I'm sure someone can!) Anyway, there are also some GOP primary numbers once more:

Virginia Foxx: 21 (17)
Patrick McHenry: 15 (13)
Renee Ellmers: 11 (11)
Robert Pittenger: 6 (--)
Richard Hudson: 5 (6)
Phil Berger: 5 (--)
George Holding: 2 (9)
Thom Tillis: 2 (2)
Other/undecided: 25 (33)

Don't get too excited about any of the movement you see here: Tom keeps tweaking his Republican roster, dropping ex-Rep. Sue Myrick and Rep. Mark Meadows in favor of Pittenger and Berger. Woot.

4:08 PM PT: HI-Sen: In a new poll for Honolulu Civil Beat, Merriman River finds that Hawaii voters approve of Gov. Neil Abercrombie's selection of former Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz over Rep. Colleen Hanabusa to fill the late Dan Inouye's Senate seat by a 45-36 margin. Asked whom they'd pick if the choice had been up to them, respondents tied at 36 apiece between Schatz and Hanabusa, with 7 percent picking state official Esther Kiaaina.

And for what it's worth, voters also disapproved of Inouye's staff releasing the now-infamous letter in which he said he preferred Hanabusa to succeed him, 45-33, though the question wording is a touch pushy. (By the way, did you know that ex-Gov. Ben Cayetano has openly questioned the letter's provenance, saying it "was not the senator talking"? Wild stuff!) More importantly, Abercrombie's own ratings also seem to have improved: He now sports a narrowly positive 48-44 approval rating. (I'm not entirely sure when Merriman last tested his numbers, but I'm pretty sure that represents an uptick.)

4:16 PM PT: MD-Gov: Don't coronate Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown just yet: Attorney General Doug Gansler just announced that he's already banked an extraordinary $5.2 million in his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Fundraising reports are due Wednesday, and Brown has by-and-large managed to project that frontrunner aura (he's supported by term-limited Gov. Martin O'Malley), but the WaPo says that Gansler's haul is "expected to greatly exceed" those of his rivals.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (11+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 06:00:06 AM PST

  •  Finally a day with an empty digest. (3+ / 0-)

    The lack of empty digest jokes was getting distressing.

  •  It's a particularly snowy winter (9+ / 0-)

    both in Tokyo and Jerusalem...I guess all that snow must be blowing over here and covering up my computer screen since I don't see any text in this diary.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 06:04:50 AM PST

  •  Andrew Cuomo is the worst Governor ever (8+ / 0-)

    Without a Democratically controlled State Senate, he'll never get increased taxes or gay marriage or increased gun control.

    http://www.nypost.com/...

    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

    by rdw72777 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:11:39 AM PST

  •  Romanoff hopefully will challenge Coffman (13+ / 0-)

    http://www.politico.com/...

    He may have burned a couple of bridges challenging Bennet in 2012 but he'd be a strong contender for this seat, I have to think. With a strong candidate, and the fact that Coffman isn't that strong and is very conservative, this might even start as Lean D

  •  Priebus ADMITS to EC-rigging scheme (12+ / 0-)

    Read it, it's important.

    I don't give people hell. I speak my mind and conservatives think it's hell.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:56:25 AM PST

    •  Well the failed major in my hometown (4+ / 0-)

      all they did there was convert existing Dems to R registration. But guess what those voters still voted Dem. That's how my Democratic State senator won 47% of registered Republicans!

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:00:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This article made me realize something. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I had been thinking it made no sense for Republicans to pass plans like this in, e.g., Ohio and Florida, because those states are almost always R+ states, so even if Democrats would only be guaranteed, say, 4 EVs in Ohio, that would still benefit the Democrats, because it would be 4 EVs more than they'd have with a 50-50 electoral map.

      BUT, if the republicans also pass these plans in a couple of states out of Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, then it would be in their interests to do so in Florida and Ohio as well, because then Democrats would need to win those latter states - and all of their EVs - to win the election.

      And if they do do this in all of these states, it sets up the scenario laid out in the article: Romney could have lost by 3.85%, lost in states totalling 332 EVs - and yet won the presidency thanks to these electoral college rule changes. That would be an incredibly audacious move on their part, and would, I imagine, set up a borderline constitutional crisis-level situation.

      •  If the attitude of Pennsylvania GOP members is (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, MichaelNY

        Repeated in other states then it probably won't go anywhere.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:20:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yet if they succeed (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and if it ends up turning the 2016 election in their favor, I could well imagine a Democratic wave in 2018 that might be sufficient to get a sufficient number of states to enact the National Popular Vote initiative. Of course, that would involve flipping legislatures in at least a couple of republican-gerrymandered states...

        By the way, what is the rationale for thinking that these states won't try to do this? I know Jonathan Bernstein argued that it won't happen because it's not in the state legislators' individual interests, but it seems to me that argument only applies to the plan to assign EVs by congressional district winner, a la Nebraska and Maine. But if the plan is to award EVs proportionally by winner of the state as a whole, then I don't see how his argument applies. And if laws like that had passed in 2012, Obama would have won, I guess, about 48 fewer EVs. He would still barely have won, but losing Florida might have been enough to get Romney elected...

        But so can we count on there being enough republican state legislators to prevent this plan from passing? Or is this going to be the biggest political development of the next several years?

        •  Count on the GOP (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't know if a select few will buck the plan or if there will be an overall mismanagement of the entire process of doing thsi, but i just don't think it will happen.

          I also think that the biggest success to killing this type of legislation is for a single state to do it.  Imagine an Ohio or Pennsylvania getting ignored in an election while suddenly Maine select districts in ME and NE get attention.

          I think the GOp could brilliantly do this if they all coordianted together and enacted it in several states at once, but I don't think much of the GOP is brilliant so I don't worry.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:40:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  There was a constitutional crisis in 2000 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, Zack from the SFV

        And the Republicans just got away with it, scot free, and did incredibly violent and vile things with their "mandate." So pardon me if I doubt anything much would happen if the Republicans managed to win in the way you outline.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:22:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Democrats also bear some responsibility for this (5+ / 0-)

          For example, if I were running the DNC/West Wing I would have made non-partisan redistricting initiatives in Ohio and Michigan where they're guaranteed to give us more seats than we currently have my number 1 priority.  I'd be using my surrogates and party elites to rile up partisans and go on talk shows attacking how fundamentally unfair gerrymandering is, but no this isn't happening.

          The Democratic Party suffers from a "hack deficiency" in that we don't have a full time propaganda network like Republicans do and it's much, much harder to get everyone to stay on message.  Until Democratic elites start to give a shit about the party as a whole or for an ideological movement, rather than just protecting their own skins, this kind of bullshit will continue to happen as it did with Ohio redistricting.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:28:14 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Democrats had the power to Federalize (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, MichaelNY, pademocrat

            redistricting when they controlled Congress. Really.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 03:26:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              with the "Really." but regardless, your point is true.  There was nothing but the filibuster threat stopping Dems from doing it had they wanted to in 2009 and they absolutely should have.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 03:30:08 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  No, not in the slightest (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, MichaelNY, James Allen, pademocrat

                They have an explicit Constitutional power to:

                The times, places and manner of holding elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each state by the legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by law make or alter such regulations, except as to the places of choosing Senators.
                Article I, sec. 4.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 03:40:25 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, but it's never been done before (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              so the odds of it happening were nil.  What would you like the feds to do with it if they exercised their constitutional ability to federalize it?  Ideally, they would have it be done by computer.  First they come up with an algorithm for each state, factor in laws and constitutional clauses affecting redistricting, and presto.  But a commission would no doubt be far more likely.   Maybe styled like California?

              Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

              by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 03:40:48 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Ideally they'd add mixed member PR (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, andgarden, MichaelNY

                so that how we draw the lines doesn't matter for partisan control, but Democrats would never intentionally end the two party system.

                They'd absolutely do a commission.  I think having a computer drawn map is one of the dumbest things that people suggest for redistricting since it throws CoI and cost effectiveness out the window.  A commission is the only thing I could realistically see Democrats doing.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 03:49:28 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I would probably have handed it off (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                to an executive agency with standards. That way, losing a Presidential election would put you at a disadvantage, but not screw you.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 03:50:34 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I see no reason to do that (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades

                  It could be a Congressional committee with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, like the Ethics Committee, except appointees and not actual Representatives.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 04:49:20 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Your idea is problematic (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen, MichaelNY, wwmiv, R30A

                    from a practical and legal perspective.

                    The legal version is easier to explain: basically, it's an Administrative law problem. You would probably run into the same kind of problem encountered in INS v. Chadha.

                    Practically speaking, there would be no way to break a tie. So you would need a fallback mechanism. But that also becomes a legal problem, because you can't just hand it off to the Supreme Court like some states do.

                    Probably the closest you could get to what you want is an independent agency. It would look like the FEC. And guess what, the FEC doesn't work anymore. Republicans refuse to cooperate.

                    So no, it would have to be an executive branch agency with a majority controlled by the President's party, constrained by the rules in its enabling legislation.

                    Ok, so I read the polls.

                    by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 05:03:18 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  If we were going to actually design some sort of (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, R30A

                      commission to do the line drawing, I think looking at other countries where it's done independently would be a good idea too.

                      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                      by sawolf on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 05:18:06 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Other countries don't face the VRA (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, R30A

                        Seriously, I've thought about this a fair bit. The only way it's going to work is as I have described.

                        Ok, so I read the polls.

                        by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 05:24:39 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, andgarden, R30A

                          However, the devil is in the details of the enabling legislation.

                          "Political competition" should be among them. Ofcourse, that'd hurt Democrats in Democratic states and hurt Republicans in Republican states.

                          Obviously we already have the VRA, so minority rights is already a requirement.

                          I also favor communities of interest be respected as well to the degree possible.

                          Ofcourse, as much scholarship notes, in redistricting many different objectives must be juggled and there will be moments where what one requirement requires will differ from another and choices must be made.

                          You'd also have to have permanent status for this board given the propensity of courts to throw out maps when they're challenged (I'd rather have the courts refer the matter back to who originally drew the maps - because of their practical expertise - than refine the problems themselves). Given this, I'd prefer a structure where each President is entitled a certain/exact number of appointees per term (three is a good number) and to have these appointees serve for no specific amount of time, with no less than 9 voting members and no more than 15.

                          Should so many members retire that the number drops below 9, the president would be allowed an extra appointment to fulfill the minimum.

                          Should a new President's number of required appointees take the number above 15, the most senior appointees would become either non-voting advisory members (should they wish to remain in that capacity) or forcibly retired.

                          In addition to this, I also think that each state's delegation should be allowed, but not required, to appoint two advisors to this panel - one Democrat and one Republican - with respect to the lines in their state.

                          Yes, this is all very complex, but I think that this format would be beneficial for all and much more politically palatable to congressmen and women whose votes are required to pass such legislation.

                          A problem, I suppose, is whether these positions should be filled with the advise and consent of the Senate. Senators have absolutely nothing to do with the House, and as such really should have no business helping to decide who gets to draw the lines to elect the lower chamber's members. It may give them too much power over the lower body's membership. On the other hand, having the Senate advise and consent on this matter would be consistent with the checks and balances mentality prevalent in this country.

                          On balance, I'd prefer a more balanced approach. The President should be able to fill his original slots with whatever people are his choices. Any additional appointments per term, however, because of the death or resignation of current members taking the number of people on the board below 9 should require the advise and consent of the Senate (or perhaps even the House?).

                          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:42:29 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Senate confirmation is probably essential (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv, MichaelNY, R30A

                            All of these details are otherwise pretty well negotiable.

                            Oh, and the VRA is not a given (it is, after all, a statute), but I would absolutely include it.

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:56:54 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  why presidential appointments? (0+ / 0-)

                            why not delegate these hires to a cabinet official or something?  No reason for these people not to be subordinate officers.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:03:23 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  This is not a back office task (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, R30A

                            I grant the argument that we should get there eventually, but given the racial politics at stake, I don't think we're anywhere close to that.

                            How would you feel about redistricting being conducted by Bush Administration staffers protected by the civil service laws?

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:09:16 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            These should be very high profile positions, and as such require Presidential appointment.

                            In line with my previous thinking, I might be open to a larger advisory panel (perhaps 5-8 with the breakdown mirroring the delegation) for each state (chosen ofcourse by the state's delegation) in order to accomodate extensive public hearings within each state by that advisory panel before the actual maps are drawn a la California.

                            Given that I was open in theory to Senate approval in my post, and andgarden's suggestion that this is actually essential, I suppose I'd have to throw my backing to that as well.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:16:57 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I think the advisory panel is perhaps (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            an interesting idea, but I would not require it.

                            This is the United States House of Representatives. The states do not own the seats (and that is the original reason why Congress has the power to make these rules).

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:19:18 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I'd definitely require it (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            It doesn't really have to do with the states, which you've previously indicated to me that it is unconstitutional according to more recent jurisprudence for congress to require that states create agencies, but with the delegation members themselves given this power.

                            That might actually be unpractical given that larger state delegations will have trouble compromising on individuals to represent their own and their constituents' interests.

                            Perhaps instead require that the panel appoint advisory board  for each state to perform this duty? I definitely think it should be a requirement, as local knowledge is very much necessary to respect CoI and other things that are integral to mapmaking. A national panel simply isn't going to be able to do this on their own.

                            Given that the panel would be permanent, time is not an issue. They could go through the advisory board appointment process a year to a year and a half ahead of time and begin public inquiry and comment shortly after.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:27:38 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The idea is to take away from the members (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, James Allen, R30A

                            the idea that they control the process.

                            The only way I could accept your proposal would be if the panels were strictly advisory in nature and the agency were given complete discretion to determine their nature.

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:32:16 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Oh ofcourse (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            andgarden, MichaelNY, R30A

                            That's why I called them "advisory". However, I saw the point and definitely think that it'd be better if they weren't appointed by the delegation and were instead put together by the panel themselves.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:36:59 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  better than someone (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            he could tell to take a hike because he didn't like their maps.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:17:24 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Being able to fire (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv, MichaelNY

                            is the essence of political control. And what have we learned other than that redistricting is an inherently political process?

                            My idea might not fix things (indeed, it is similar to the way PA draws its legislative maps), but it has the potential to, and can hardly make the situation worse.

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:22:11 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Also agreed (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            There'd definitely need to be provisions for removal.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:34:40 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  and while you're not sure you'd like (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, R30A

                            the current president to not be able to fire them, others would not have wanted the previous president to have been able to.  After having taken con law and read the cases arguing about it I really do not care any more about whether the president has the power to fire someone.  Those were wasted hours.  It's a stupid debate.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:36:56 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            R30A

                            I dont think the President should have that ability. But the legislature should surely have the ability - under very strict circumstances that can be fought in court between congress and the removed member if it comes to it - to remove a member.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:41:10 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Unconstitutional (except through impeachment (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen, MichaelNY

                            and Senate trial).

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:43:28 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Are you saying (0+ / 0-)

                            That the President can't have that ability, but the legislature can?

                            Or that the legislature cannot have this ability except through impeachment and trial? In which case impeachment and trial by Senate is totally acceptable anyway.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:50:03 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Pres has it by default (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen, MichaelNY

                            Congress has it, if at all, through impeachment and trial.

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:52:57 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  the latter. (0+ / 0-)

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:53:05 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Damn (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            I read the link you provided just below. I.E. the President can fire them.

                            Perhaps we need a constitutional amendment to enact something like this, where only impeachment and trial by Senate can remove a member for bad behavior.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:54:27 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  no, of course the executive branch should (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            be able to remove an officer for cause.  Without cause is the issue.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:55:42 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  although I guess a congressional-supremacist (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, andgarden

                            might disagree with me.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:57:42 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Wait until you take Admin (Required, BTW!) (0+ / 0-)

                            Clearly, we still haven't sorted out Reconstruction.

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:43:02 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  well I meant "for cause". (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            andgarden, MichaelNY

                            I don't want to make a constitutional issue out of it.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:52:24 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Obligatory Seinfeld reference: (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen
                            IPSWITCH: Ms. Benes the hat you charged to the company was Sable, this is Nutria.

                            ELAINE: w-w- Well, that's a -ah, it’s kind of Sable.

                            IPSWITCH: No, its a kind of rat.

                            ELAINE: That's a rat hat?

                            IPSWITCH: And a poorly made one, even by rat hat standards. I have no choice but to recommend your prompt termination to the board of directors. Nothing short of the approval of Peterman himself will save you this time.

                            ELAINE: But, but, he's in the Burmese jungle.

                            IPSWITCH: And quite mad too from what I hear.

                            ELAINE: Wait a minute, wait a minute. Can I fire you?

                            IPSWITCH: No.

                            Ok, so I read the polls.

                            by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:58:52 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  James, I'm not actually sure what you mean by this (0+ / 0-)
                            better than someone he could tell to take a hike because he didn't like their maps.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:28:06 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  NVM (0+ / 0-)

                            Now I get it. I wasn't understanding which comment this was in reply to, which greatly clarified the meaning once I realized.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:29:23 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  but to clarify (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            andgarden

                            I support your idea regardless.

                            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:18:21 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

        •  hence W. goes down in history (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          having one of the worst Coattails ever for a first term president. His party lost seats in the house, senate and governorship.

          Even in Nixon's lonely landslide kept senate losses to just 2 seats

          "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

          by lordpet8 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:45:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-Gov: Buono has secured the endorsment (7+ / 0-)

    of the Monmouth County Democratic Party, along with Middlesex and Somerset.

    Gopal said that Buono's independence is behind the movement by party leaders to find another candidate. He dismissed concerns that a Buono candidacy would hurt down ballot candidates in November and said that with the June primary rapidly approaching, it is time for Democrats to unite. Buono is the only woman seeking a governorship in the nation this year thus far, and would be the first woman Democratic gubernatorial nominee in New Jersey history.

    "It is a little disconcerting," Gopal said of the effort to find a Buono alternative. "She is not a second-tier candidate, she is a first-tier candidate. The fact that she is very independent makes her a great candidate."

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:07:37 AM PST

  •  NJ-Gov: Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson

    does not believe Codey or Sweeney will run.

    The source said DiVincenzo and Alagia don’t believe either their political enemy state Sen. Richard Codey (D-27) or their political ally Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-3) will run for governor.

    But while Codey tries to figure out what he’s doing, DiVincenzo and Alagia don’t mind putting off some psychological warfare optics by having a friendly coffee with Buono in a show of relationship building with the gubernatorial candidate from Middlesex.

    The two Essex Demcorats don’t want Codey because Codey could spark a party civil war and play havoc with DiVincenzo’s 2014 re-election chances. They won’t want Sweeney because that would force Sweeney to give up his Senate presidency and upset a balance of power that now enables them to maintain leadership in the Assembly.

    http://www.politickernj.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:17:17 AM PST

  •  Obama Impeachment? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    Apparently, Steve Stockman wants to impeach Obama if he tries to implement gun safety regulations. I'm still newer to electoral politics than a lot of you guys, so I didn't really recognize Steve Stockman during the campaign from an earlier time (although I knew from the conversations here that he's crazy). Based on these comments, he's off to a great start in my book.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:34:59 AM PST

  •  Anyone think Buono could actually beat Christie? (0+ / 0-)

    I am an eternal optimist, but even I have written off this race.

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 09:11:12 AM PST

  •  No she can't beat him but (8+ / 0-)

    she not going to lose 3-1 like some of the polls right now are saying. No way that happens to a Dem in a state like New Jersey. Those poll numbers are waaaaay inflated for my taste. As November gets near reality sets in. I'll say she get somewhere between 45-47 percent of the vote.

    Let's not kid ourselves, you don't get into a race that you  don't believe can win, unless your're  putting your name out there for future races. Specifically when it's statewide. Buono wants to be Governor one day and that's why she's doing this. Even though she'll lose this year. She'll be in a MUCH better position in '17.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 09:25:29 AM PST

  •  Fun fact! (4+ / 0-)

    Did you know one of the only precincts in Denver to back McCain was the neighborhood of Polo Club?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 09:26:45 AM PST

  •  PA: Kane & DePasquale gettin sworn in today (8+ / 0-)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 09:39:23 AM PST

  •  Martin O'Malley is introducing a death penalty (15+ / 0-)

    repeal bill today. He has also outlined his gun control legislation package this week.  I follow both Cuomo and O'Malley on twitter and it is amazing how much more productive O'Malley is. I really hope O'Malley runs for President in 2016.  

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 09:42:08 AM PST

    •  O'Malley would have trouble nationally (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, dc1000, betelgeux

      He is very liberal, and outspoken about it. He would have a difficult winning 50%+1 nationally.

      How can you say he has been more productive that Cuomo? Cuomo's gun bill already passed.

      •  Evidence for this? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, askew, dem4evr

        "He would have a difficult winning 50%+1 nationally."

        And since winning 50%+1 nationally is unneccessary, which states that Obama won do you think O'Malley would lose?

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 09:56:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't know of any state O'Malley could win that Romney won in 2012.

          I don't give people hell. I speak my mind and conservatives think it's hell.

          by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:01:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Even if he lost all those states (6+ / 0-)

            and didn't pick up any others he would still clear 270 EV's.  And there's no particular reason to believe he'd lose them, if he campaigned effectively.  Obama did win them twice, the second time after amassing a liberal record as president.

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:05:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  While I don't disagree (6+ / 0-)

            Why would O'Malley struggle in the last 3?  I'd actually think he'd do pretty well in virginia, though it would be a nail-biter.

            What is his weakness in CO/NV.  I wouldn't think many of even his most liberal positions would be that detrimental in NV.  They keep electing Harry Reid and he was the driving force behind Obamacare's passage really.

            FL, well that state is always going to be touch.  I don't necessarily see a Dem right now (excl Hillary) who has a discernible advantage over any other potential Dem in Florida.

            I must say though if it were legal to bet on intrade, I place $10 on hickenlooper as VP nominee in 2016 though (I assume I'd get decent odds and he just has to be in the convo).

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:07:48 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  A lot depends on circumstances (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, ArkDem14

            beyond the candidates.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:31:50 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I think that O'Malley would do okay (4+ / 0-)

            in half the states you mentioned: Colorado and Nevada. I believe the baseline in these states have shifted sufficiently such that most Democrats will win them on a presidential line. I agree that he would not do as well in Florida or Virginia given the inevitable drop in black voter turnout in both states, and I don't see O'Malley carrying Cubans given their general opposition to Democrats, with Obama being the notable exception. I think O'Malley's biggest hurdle would be the great lakes region. I don't see someone like O'Malley playing well in the rust belt given his socially liberal crusader status. If O'Malley strugglea in places like Ohio Michigan and Pennsylvania, and I believe he would, he will lose nationally. O'Malley does not have the "Midwestern values" persona, and that greatly helps in these areas. He does not UBS the likabilty of Amy Klobuchar, the populist attitude of Sherod Brown, or the moderate image of Bob Casey.

            •  And Obama had any of those things? (11+ / 0-)

              O'Malley is a beer-drinking Irish Catholic—much more of a Joe Biden profile (except, you know, not a teetotaler). And he managed to get elected mayor of a majority black city, so I think he has a lot of political skill when it comes to reaching out and appealing to folks who may appear to be different from him.

              Yes, if you read a list of his policy achievements in a vacuum, you might imagine him as "liberal crusader." I don't think that's how he comes off, and in any event, whichever Democrat wins the nomination will get pegged as a liberal, even Cuomo.

              And I'd point out that Obama came out for gay marriage, too, and it didn't hurt him one bit. Just eight years ago, people were making the claim that Kerry lost Ohio because of the gay marriage measure on the ballot that year.

              Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

              by David Nir on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:41:42 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Good point here: (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JBraden, MichaelNY
                And I'd point out that Obama came out for gay marriage, too, and it didn't hurt him one bit. Just eight years ago, people were making the claim that Kerry lost Ohio because of the gay marriage measure on the ballot that year.
                Being a social liberal in the 2010s is a net electoral benefit at the national level. It's a considerably different world from even ten years ago.
                •  I'll go back to yesterday's Brownstein article (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen, askew, MichaelNY

                  "Surveys, including the Election Day exit poll, consistently show that most minority voters support more government activism than Republicans prefer."

                  That really is the crux of it in my mind. Both socially and economically the demographics are very favorable at the national level.

                  "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                  by conspiracy on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:02:54 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Hah, yes (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY, Skaje, jncca

                  As James L said to me last year after Obama's announcement, "Who could've imagined that we'd reach a point when Democrats would rather talk about gay marriage than the economy!"

                  Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

                  by David Nir on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:21:16 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  David is right (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              O'Malley is the embodiment of an old-school, populist blue collar, ethnic-white Democrat, albeit with some socially liberal views. He's a pretty talented politician too.

              That said I really think Hillary is positioning herself, perhaps just for one term so that she can play kingmaker with her Vice President spot.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 02:13:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Please, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              most of Michigan outside of Detroit and Flint may be Republican, but the fact is, Detroit, Flint, and Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti, which I would argue are the three major blue strongholds in this state, aren't places where the "Midwestern values" thing tends to be that important.

      •  I don't really think... (17+ / 0-)

        Voters saw President Obama as a moderate, despite the fact that he is, during the presidential campaign. The RWNM loudly insisted he was the liberaliest liberal to ever lib, and the narrative was set.

        Yet Obama crushed Romney and became the first presidential candidate in over half a century to win two terms with more than 51 percent of the vote.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:32:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd dispute the fact that he's a moderate (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          considering his Senate record...Moderate compared to a socialist, yes, but otherwise definitely a liberal.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 02:55:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Do you think he's been as liberal as president (0+ / 0-)

            as he was as a senator?

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 04:50:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  No (0+ / 0-)

              But no president or governor is.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 05:40:31 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't think that's true (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, pademocrat

                Lyndon Johnson was much more liberal as President than he was as a senator, n'est-ce pas? Also, there was probably no way to predict FDR would be as liberal a president as he was. He campaigned on a balanced budget, right?!

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:14:09 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  only some of what he did was liberal (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  but he was much much farther to the left as president than anyone expected him to be.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:15:16 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  On a national stage... (7+ / 0-)

        ..both O'Malley AND Cuomo would be tagged as liberals and suffer the exact same barbs and arrows.  The difference being of course that O'Malley will actually govern as advertised and can't be any less charismatic than Cuomo.

        To be honest I'd rather have someone like say a Brian Schweitzer who will have more potential for crossover appeal.  Running a northeast Liberal (psuedo or otherwise) just has not historically worked out for the Democratic Party.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:17:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  True (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          But consider how some aspects of Obama's performance look similar to Michael Dukakis. History has changed.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:33:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Yes (5+ / 0-)

      O'Malley really is amazing at his ability to get things done after Cuomo does them.  Gay marriage, guns.  Oh and now he's acting on the death penalty, as he enters year 7 of his tenure.  Heck David Patterson got rid of New York's death row in his "term".

      O'Malley is Cuomo's little brother in politics.  

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 09:56:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  And yet he does them... (14+ / 0-)

        Without gutting school funding, cutting taxes for the rich, or fucking over congressional and legislative Democrats. Amazing, that.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:33:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What's amazing (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dc1000, JohnnyBoston

          Is that state Senate control has salted the earth in the eyes of so many people when Senate control thus far wouldn't have changed a damn thing in his agenda.  

          The Senate Democrats have never had an agenda and never will, elect 40 of them and it'll be the same sit back and do nothing "agenda".  

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:44:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  they wouldn't have changed Cuomo's agenda (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but they could've pushed him further to the left.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:10:55 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I guess I'm alone in that... (0+ / 0-)

              ...I'm not convinced that would have happened.  Maybe i read the NYS Senate with more skepticism, but have the Dems there ever stood for anything ever?  What are their policy achievements or goals?  Even as a minority party in the body, have they ever really tried.  (I mean look at the past leaders, is corruption considered a policy goal?)

              We can fault the IDC for causing Dems to lose the majority, but if the Assembly can't push Cuomo left, then why can the Senate?  And if the neither can, then why does control of the Senate matter?

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:55:11 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  well I'm not interested enough to argue it (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                but notice that I said could have, you said would have.  There's a difference in that.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:09:57 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  You seem to have very personal feelings (6+ / 0-)

            About the whole Cuomo/state Senate situation, and I'm worried about things getting toxic. This is, after all, a message board principally inhabited by progressives, and most of us are naturally going to be upset by a Democratic governor who prefers to see GOP control of the state legislature, even if he occasionally accomplishes some things we like.

            Trying to convince the rest of us that we're wrong to be angry about Cuomo's posture and his relationship with Skelos is just not going to succeed. And taking a dump on O'Malley, whom many of us like, isn't going to play well, either. I have no problem with a reasoned critique of O'Malley, but name-calling does not qualify.

            And I'll say this now: I have every intention of making this a primary-free zone vis-a-vis the next presidential election, just as SSP was in 2008. People personalize presidential nomination politics way too much. I would have hoped it wouldn't be necessary for me to take this step so early, and I still hope it's not, but if people are going to make this personal and nasty this early, then I'll start posting a warning blurb at the top of every Live Digest that this is a primary-free zone.

            Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

            by David Nir on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:26:26 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  We don't like Cuomo's coziness with Republicans (0+ / 0-)

              But it's probably very smart for him in terms of getting votes from New York voters. It could also help him if he somehow managed to become the Democratic nominee for President, which I kind of doubt will happen.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:36:26 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm always happy (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, JohnnyBoston, Xenocrypt

                To discuss Cuomo's actions in those terms. I think it's both savvy politics, sadly, and it also probably just suits him ideologically. But it definitely works for him—witness his huge approval ratings.

                Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

                by David Nir on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:43:34 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Primary-free, I agree (0+ / 0-)

                  And just so we're clear, I'm not worried about a Cuomo presidency for that very political adventure (i.e. winning primaries).

                  But think most of what we're doing is comparing the 2 governors on what they do as governors, quite honestly I don't care about 2016 just yet.

                  My argument is that Cuomo gets an unfair shake, and O'Malley gets an unfair halo for the same dang things.  O'Malley is becoming Democratic Jesus on these boards when he passes gay marriage or gun control 6 months after Cuomo when the bills are almost the same.  Where's the objectivity gone?

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:50:21 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I really think (9+ / 0-)

                    You need to re-think your last graf. You are eliding quite a bit if you think O'Malley and Cuomo "do the same dang things." I think you also ought to reconsider your claim that the people on this board who disagree with you (which happens to constitute the bulk of opinion on this board) have lost their objectivity. That's an incendiary charge.

                    What's more, as I say, progressives are always going to be unhappy when someone elected as a Democrat goes out of his way to give aid and comfort to Republicans, even if he occasionally gets something out of it. Cuomo endorsed Republicans, Cuomo refused to support Democratic control of the Senate, and Cuomo openly lied about redistricting (and even lied about what the federal judges overseeing redistricting had done!) rather than side with his own party.

                    And yes, as a lifelong New Yorker and Democrat, it disgusts me that the GOP still has control over any part of the legislature, given how blue this state is. It's one of the most outrageous gerrymanders in the nation. New York gave 63% of its vote to Obama. By contrast, Idaho gave 64% to Romney. Imagine if Idaho had a Democratic Senate—and a Republican governor who was cozy with that Senate! It's impossible to imagine, and hell, I'd certainly understand a conservative being furious at such a situation.

                    Also, here's the thing: O'Malley has earned his reputation as Progressive Jesus. He pushed gay marriage through (and faced opposition from some members of his own party in the legislator, which Cuomo did not, and then had to face a popular vote on it, something Cuomo did not have to contend with); he raised taxes on the rich (Cuomo's tax bill lowered taxes on the rich compared to the previous millionaire's tax that had been in place); and he did redistricting the Chicago Way, to channel The Untouchables (though perhaps Mike Madigan would prefer I called it the Springfield Way). And we haven't even touched on Cuomo's efforts to undermine unions, but I'll leave it at that.

                    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

                    by David Nir on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:17:52 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

        •  Let's not forget he isn't anti-union. (3+ / 0-)

          And we all know Cuomo is going to permit hydrofracking near where the reservoir for the NYC water supply is.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:20:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  gun control yes, repeal death penalty No (0+ / 0-)

      I'm a staunch supporter of the death penalty and that's not the way to go. I kno people have mix feeling about it where some support it and some don't. But repealing it I don't like.

      Effectively and responsibly using the death penalty with DNA testing, and forensics is right. The only problem with it is when you have states like Texas that recklessly use it , and later those folks turned out to be innocent the whole time.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 09:59:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  ME-Sen: Any chance of LePage pulling the trigger? (10+ / 0-)

    I have to imagine having a liberal Dem legislature is no fun for a Tea Partier. Taking on one of the foremost RINOs and then joining the Senate Tea Party Caucus* has got to have a lot more appeal, right?

    * There's no hope in hell that he'd actually win, all that matters is if he thinks he'll win.

  •  thanks to the Oregonian (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Xenocrypt, lordpet8, abgin

    publishing this I can do my own analysis and update all of my PVIs for state house districts without ordering precinct results!  Of course they used total votes and I use two party (because I use PVIs like a rational person) but that can be easily done.  Just need to do some reverse engineering.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:07:58 AM PST

    •  So basically (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Dems won the D+ districts and Republicans won the R+ districts, except for Caddy McKeown (Dem winning R+2ish district), Mark Johnson (Rep winning D+0ish district), Julie Parrish (Rep winning D+1.5ish district), and Jason Conger (Rep winning D+3ish district)?

      Sigh.  Politics is getting boring.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:17:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  in Oregon PVI is becoming very predictive (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, ArkDem14

        those exceptions being the coast, which is much more willing to vote for Democrats for the legislature and congress than for president, and Caddy McKeown represents part of the South Coast.  I think it's about R+1.  The 04/08 numbers had it at R+0.  She really steamrolled her opposition, too, winning by like 12 points.  She did better than our state senate candidate, who ran in a bluer district, and was the incumbent in her district.  I think he won by 10.

        Mark Johnson represents Hood River, rural east Multnomah County, and northeastern Clackamas County.  He won by 4 points against a candidate who only took donations of $50 or less, and only from district residents.  With a real candidate we can win that.

        Parrish represents where I live, Tualatin and West Linn, both generally white and more upscale Portland suburbs.  This is Scott Bruun's od district (the 08 candidate for OR-05), and has not been represented by a Democrat, to my father's recollection, ever.  It should be about D+2, including 08 numbers.  This district is split between Clackamas (mostly West Linn) and Washington counties, and we generally underperformed in Clackamas County this year by a little bit.

        Conger represents most of Bend, which is very white and wealthy, ancestrally Republican, and we've only been able to win this district once, in 2008.  Redistricting made it more favorable, but frustratingly while Obama won the district with something like 57% of the 2-party vote, Conger won by a similar amount against an underfunded challenger.

        I could see us winning any of those last three districts this decade, but most likely not Parrish's.  I think we'll hold onto HD-09 absent a vacancy, since last decade the district was about the same in partisanship and we only had a very close call in 2010.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:30:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Were there any notable changes (0+ / 0-)

          in Presidential results from 2008 to 2012?

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

          by Xenocrypt on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:34:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  notable? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt, ArkDem14

            depends on your definition.  I'll need to look at precinct maps to be sure, but I recall all of our state house districts that were primarily in mid to outer east Portland added several points to their D leans, and also the district partially in it that was featured here at DKE when we knocked off a conservadem in the primary last year gained maybe a point or so, I think.  That stuck out to me as the biggest, most notable change that I saw.  Those districts have higher East Asian American populations than almost any others in the state, and particularly more Vietnamese Americans, but I can't think of any other potential explanation.  Oh, except that outer east Portland also has more kids, and loads of low-income housing, and so probably more young voters, too.

            I think Malheur County actually trended D a little, but it's so Republican, and being on the far southeastern corner of the state, is in such Republican districts that it doesn't matter.  Coos County didn't seem to drift that much farther away from us, which is good and unexpected, but Clackamas and Columbia counties did have more movement towards the Republicans than I'd expected.  Movements in these three counties affect some swingy legislative districts, but probably only Clackamas is big enough to affect anything more than that.

            So on the balance probably not much change overall.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:45:25 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I should add that aside from a few exceptions (0+ / 0-)

            and those are mainly those eastside Portland districts I mentioned, it looks like most districts in the metro area came down almost exactly on their prior PVI, meaning that since 2004 is falling out, they will shift to the left slightly.  Others will not, like some rural districts where Obama's numbers plummeted, but those area already deep, deep R.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:19:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Losing southern governorships (5+ / 0-)

    It looks like we will lose AR.  If we don't win VA or FL, the South will be under total one-party rule (gov, legislatures) for the first time since the 1960s.

    There are some interesting patterns in losing the Southern governorships.  Of the eleven former Confederate states, 9 governorships changed parties after Democratic governors served only one term (however VA govs are term-limited).  7 of those governorships were incumbent Democrats defeated for re-election (many in 2002-2003).  3 were women - all the first female governors in their respective states (not counting "shadow governors") - and were either defeated after one term or declined to run for re-election.  Not a good trend for female governors in the South.

  •  WI-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    This is a day old, but Paul Fanlund wrote this op-ed promoting Kevin Conroy, a Madison biotech executive, as a potential Democratic candidate for Governor of Wisconsin.

    Conroy has not responded to "multiple efforts" to contact him about a potential gubernatorial bid, presumably because Conroy's company is trying to obtain FDA approval for a cancer screening test that they have developed.

    I don't give people hell. I speak my mind and conservatives think it's hell.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:27:59 AM PST

  •  ME-SEN: Has Collins decided whether she will (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    run again? From what I can tell, she hasnt.

  •  ugh, not a mention of Oregon (0+ / 0-)

    in Grove's blurb.  Where she really took off.  And they'll have an office in Hawaii, where she moved to, but I guess we'll have to find another local pollster here.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 11:34:06 AM PST

  •  Mike Capuano's stepping out of the Senate race (8+ / 0-)

    in MA

      •  The article says Lynch will run (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JohnnyBoston, R30A

        but I wonder if his chances of winning are hurt by Capuano not entering the race.

        I think someone noted Lynch's strategy was to have Capuano and Markey split the liberal vote and Lynch could then with a plurality of relatively conservative Dems/union supporters.

        But now it's looking like a two person race: Lynch and Markey.

        •  That labor guy gonna double-down (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, abgin

          And go all in for Lynch?

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:05:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not sure what to make of that comment (0+ / 0-)

            It looks like, more than anything, most of the members of that union supported Scott Brown. Even against Warren.

            I do wonder what is happening with other unions in the state, and whether they are okay with Markey or want Lynch or someone else.

            •  I'm not sure I'd go that far (4+ / 0-)

              It sounded to me like they were divided, but that's a nothingburger because it was a 53-46 race in a state where Dems usually do 5-10 points better than that, so of course plenty of communities of people (whether unions, towns, or any other group) were divided in a way that's not familiar.  That union necessarily was similarly divided in the 2010 special, perhaps with a slightly more Brown tilt than in 2012 but that's not a  perceptible difference in a group that size.

              That union guy's gibberish was laughable.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:34:17 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  The liberal vote could still get split (0+ / 0-)

          Marisa DeFranco's team is getting active:

          http://www.bostonglobe.com/...

        •  should we root for lynch to run now? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JohnnyBoston

          He'd probably lose the primary to Markey (mostly because of markey's COH), and we have a shot at putting someone more progressive in the congressional seat, which based on PVI, should have someone more progressive than lynch

        •  The battle is often not left/right. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, JohnnyBoston, jj32

          But blue collar versus white collar.  Harvard versus Boston College.  Toney suburbs versus city.  And outsider versus insider.

          Markey on paper went to a catholic high school and Boston College.  His public image however is suburban liberal do-gooder.  Which is probably why most of you are pretty high on the guy.  (As opposed to say his polar opposite Thomas Finneran.. a conservative do-badder).

          Whether Capuano would've hurt or helped depends on what image he might project in contrast.  Its possible he may have hurt Lynch more than he helped.

          Particularly in places like Boston often times it's personality and positioning more than ideology than matters.

          It also remains to be seen how much money Lynch is able to raise and whether he's actually serious about it.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:40:10 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  TX-statewide (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psychicpanda, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    by the end of 2012 George P. Bush raised 1.35 million for his bid for some unknown statewide office in Texas.  $100,000 of that came from Jeb and W, another $65,000 from Bob Perry and his wife, and altogether, according to the article, only 9% of his donations came from outside Texas and Florida.  Somebody's taking advantage of a legacy.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:13:24 PM PST

  •  anyone have a good estimate of the two party (0+ / 0-)

    popular vote?  Up to date?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:53:26 PM PST

  •  NC-Sen Hagan leads all comers by 6-10% (16+ / 0-)

    34/36 approval, basically a cipher for the Democratic party's popularity in the state.
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 12:54:00 PM PST

  •  FL-GOV: Could Scott get a primary challenge? (7+ / 0-)

    PPP teasing their FL poll out tomorrow. They say Scott trails 4 Dems they matched him against, and also trails a primary challenger. Doesnt say who they are.

    I've wondered for a while if he could get a primary challenger, given the deep GOP bench in FL and his poor approval ratings.

    In fact, consider those things, why wouldnt he get a primary challenge?

    PPP also says Crist's favorability rating among Dems is 73/17.

  •  Looking at the NY Senate Gun vote (12+ / 0-)

    it seems 3 Republican Senators may have hurt themselves in voting no.

    Every Republican on Long Island voted yes, except Sen. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley), who did not vote, but nevertheless released a statement saying he opposed the bill. He represents a seat in SW Suffolk County. He won this seat in 2010 from then Dem Sen. Brian X. Foley.

    Then in the lower Hudson, Sen. William Larkin (R-Cornwall-on-Hudson) voted no. He won a narrow victory in 2012 in his Orange/Ulster district. Finally (as expected), Sen. Greg Ball (R-Patterson), who represents a Northern Westchester, Eastern Putnam, and Southern Dutchess, voted no, and went full NRA on this one, calling it "Cuomo's Gun Grab" and even announcing on his website that he will appear on resident idiot Sean Hannity's program tonight. He only won by about 2600 votes in 2012.

    Note that I also saw that Sen. John Bonacic (R-Mt. Hope) opposed the bill. He represents a seat taking in parts of Orange, Ulster, Delaware and Sullivan counties, with the largest portion of the population in suburban Orange County, but also including the liberal New Paltz, but he hasn't faced a strong challenge for a long time.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 01:59:54 PM PST

    •  Great comment! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, abgin

      I don't give people hell. I speak my mind and conservatives think it's hell.

      by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 02:05:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Does anyone see how a Long Island GOPer (4+ / 0-)

      can survive reelection after opposing this bill? Maybe Zeldin should have looked and saw that the other 8 Nassau/Suffolk Republicans voted for it.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 04:31:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Greg Ball (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades, ArkDem14

      Ball might be the most attention seeking State Senator. He is just a constant media circus. I can't even remember of all the crazy stuff that he has been involved with. This past election cycle he had the pant-less tweet, the fallout with Assemblyman Katz, and putting out feelers about primarying Nan Hayworth. Let's not also forget that he only voted against marriage equality because he couldn't get Dick Cheney to campaign for him. He clearly has a lot of baggage already. People knew what they get when they vote for him. That's one reason I don't think he is vulnerable. Justin Wagner was the best Democratic challenger in the state this cycle and he lost. For all the crazy that surrounds Greg Ball, he somehow knows how to win.

      I think it might be time to make a push against Larkin. He may just retire than face a tough re-election. There have been rumors about his retirement for a couple of years. I think this vote should hurt him in his district. The district contains the City of Newburgh. Even though it is a small city, it has a lot of violent crime.

      M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

      by slacks on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 04:41:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-2 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, jj32

    Toi Hutchinson mentioned that she received poll data that said that she was "4% out of first place" in this fundraising push, however, the full poll data was not revealed.

    I don't give people hell. I speak my mind and conservatives think it's hell.

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 02:10:44 PM PST

  •  I had a very strange dream... (5+ / 0-)

    The DKE crew, among others, was spearheading a revolution, but it was also the first day of college, and MichaelNY's daughter intentionally blinded him for some reason..

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 02:38:44 PM PST

  •  will the equality state live up to its name? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, MichaelNY

    There is a bill for gay Marraige/civil unions in the Wyoming legislature with some bipartisan support. I get that WY has a libertarian streak, but I don't know if it will be enough to win here. No word on where Governor Mead stands.

    http://www.jhnewsandguide.com/...

    "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

    by lordpet8 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 03:27:05 PM PST

    •  That would be a shocker (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      I've always thought the first red state to legalize it would be Alaska, on the basis that it's so remote that it might be less susceptible to the interests of the national party. But for Republicans to override such a huge component of their base would really be a surprise. The recriminations would be extraordinary.

      •  WY probably won't be first (4+ / 0-)

        It's deep red generally and has a bigger Mormon influence than any state but UT or ID. The national Mormon organization freaked out over prop 8 here a few years ago because they were worried that gay marriage would lead to legalized polygamy.

        Of the actual red states, I would expect AK, MT, or AZ to be first. MT and AZ are the only two shown on this map as having opposition below 50%, although they don't have majority support. AK wasn't polled but I suspect it would be similar to MT.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 04:38:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think any red state will be "first" (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, LordMike

          because I think the Supreme Court, or Congress itself, will enact it nationally long before any Republican-controlled, Romney-won state passes it.  Not even Montana, Alaska, or Arizona.  Republicans may eventually start to moderate on the issue, but they won't be the ones to initiate it in red states.  It would be decades before the kinds of Republicans that would support marriage equality so fully as to force passage in such states will be elected.  And I think national marriage equality, one way or another, will come before then.

          Note: I think states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, or Michigan might pass within 10 years or so, even if they are still controlled by Republicans at the time.  But they're not red states.  Montana or Alaska might pass it if Democrats show they can capture the state legislatures down the road, and elect Dem governors.  But it wouldn't be Republicans doing it then, and I wouldn't count them as "red states" then.  As for Arizona, it's similarly a lost cause until Democrats come to dominate the state.  The Republicans there are just too extreme.

    •  This is really cool (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, lordpet8

      Bravo to those Republican co-sponsors. I hope this catches on, even though it seems like a long shot.

      Fun fact: Wyoming House districts number less than 9,500 people each on average.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 02:51:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  does anyone know (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, aamail6

    about the timeline for the outstanding NY-St. Sen. race?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 03:54:58 PM PST

  •  Indiana GOP already trying to limit Glenda Ritz (4+ / 0-)

    http://www.journalgazette.net/...

    This will make her little more than a figurehead. Sore losers!

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 04:27:16 PM PST

    •  I dare them to actually eliminate her position (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      It would set her up nicely for a 2016 run. The Governor takes all of her power, so she runs for Governor.

      •  Will the media cover (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, drhoosierdem

        this extensively as the shameless, subversive ploy it is in undermining a democratic election because your candidate didn't win?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 05:10:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Looks like they may just keep her in office (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, drhoosierdem

        but eliminate nearly all of her powers.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 05:55:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If she doesn't have much to gain (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          by staying then I do not see why she wouldn't look for a promotion. It is way to early to tell now but my gut thinks Pence retires and runs for President, or possibly even run for Senate. I do not think he cares about being Governor, he's a Washington guy with an ego larger than Cuomo's.

  •  MD-GOV: Language Police (0+ / 0-)

    Coronate is not the generally accepted verb.  It's crown.

  •  Jim Cooper (6+ / 0-)

    stands alone.

    This asshole (I use the word advisedly) needs a primary--and has for years.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 05:12:07 PM PST

  •  2012 House Popular Vote vs. Seats Won (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, psychicpanda, MichaelNY

    Photobucket
    (click through for full size)

    Either excel was screwing up or I just can't count; I checked over the seat count multiple times and it looked correct but excel was adding it up to 200D 235R which is wrong, so if someone spots the error let me know.

    Oh, and I'm currently writing a rant diary urging Dkos Dems to organize independent redistricting constitutional amendment ballot initiatives in Michigan and Ohio.  :)

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 05:20:44 PM PST

  •  Michigan poll (8+ / 0-)

    Mitchell Research released a new poll showing Snyder with a 50%/43% approval rating.  They also say MI voters support RTW 50/45%.  

    I don't believe the poll.  It's a Republican firm that underestimated Obama's win by 4.5%.  They also showed the presidential race tied or Romney leading several times, which clearly wasn't true.  

    http://www.mlive.com/...

  •  MD-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, jj32

    I know this angle frustrated many, but something to keep in mind: Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown in 2008 initially endorsed then Sen. Clinton during the Democratic primary. Attorney General Doug Gansler was an early support of President Obama and I believe was his Maryland campaign co-chair.

  •  Anyone have any news or thoughts (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    about ME-Gov? This would be a great pickup opportunity for the Dems, yet I haven't seen it mentioned too often here at DKE. I have a couple names written down in my notebook: former Speaker Hannah Pingree and SecState Matt Dunlap I've listed under "likely"; and I have Mike Michaud, Chellie Pingree, AG Janet Maslin, and State Sen. Cynthia Dill labeled as "speculative".

    My personal favorite is Hannah Pingree, but Michaud would win in an instant. His candidacy would lock the race for the Dems.

    Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

    by betelgeux on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:00:59 PM PST

  •  Maybe Crist (0+ / 0-)

    is our best bet to beat Scott, but I would be far more comfortable with a real Democrat especially when Scott seems "ripe for slaughter"

    I'm not familiar with the bench in Florida, any names?

    •  ripe for slaughter is probably not the best (8+ / 0-)

      word choice unless we're discussing Maggie Brooks.

      But aside from that, Nan Rich has been mentioned, as has Pam Iorio.  Alvin Brown, the moderate mayor of Jacksonville, would be a good candidate but is probably too new.  Our problem in Florida is we have an extremely weak bench and state party.  I really don't like Crist, so I'm hoping we find someone else, but I'm not sure who there is.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 07:14:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  question about the Hart Celler Act (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    for those that don't know what it is, it was a bill passed in 1965 that liberalized the country's immigration laws.

    I remember someone telling me the other day that most democrats knew they had a very low floor of support so the bill was passed to help raise the floor.

    Looking back, do you think that might have been the case?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 08:45:17 PM PST

  •  Another coalition government (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    It looks like a coalition of Republicans and Democrats will be running the state House in Hawaii.  Yes the state house where Republicans are a endangered species.  I'm not sure exactly what the beef is with the Speaker of the House, but it looks like lots of change happening in Hawaii, with the longtime House Speaker being ousted along with all the changes at the federal level.

    http://www.civilbeat.com/...

    •  It's not a coalition government (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, James Allen, MichaelNY

      they're just using Republican votes to choose another Dem speaker.  Dems will continue to Chair all committees.  Republicans just get three vice-chair positions.  

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:50:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        This is not an ideological change in power.  It's a change in power between one group of "It's my turn now" Democrats and the former group of "It's still my turn" Democrats.  Souki tried to unseat Say in recent years but Say was able to cobble together a coalition that included the Republicans.  However, the Republicans backed Souki this time.  Not out of any ideological reasons (Souki and Say are both old-school, union machine Dems of questionable progressive credentials on other issues), but just because they could.  Republicans will continue to be marginalized, Democrats will continue to chair all committees and control which bills come to votes.

        The Hawaii legislature has been split between factions of Democrats for decades now, and it's never been an ideological battle, but rather a beef between supporters of various leaders, and whose friends get to chair the important committees.

      •  That's the definition of a coalition government (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Without the Republican votes, they couldn't have gotten rid of the current Speaker.

    •  Huh? (0+ / 0-)

      Weird. Republicans are a much smaller minority there than in New York.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:51:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  HI: The poll is probably questionable. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Civil Beat didn't have the greatest track record.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:31:39 PM PST

  •  wow, I grew up in the 2nd most conservative (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    state house district in the state that is not in Southern or Eastern Oregon, according to the link I posted above.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Tue Jan 15, 2013 at 10:37:03 PM PST

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