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Gerstein, Bocian and Agne Strategies for Robin Kelly campaign. 2/4-5. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (1/3-6 results)

Robin Kelly 26 (15)
Debbie Halvorson 22 (25)
Toi Hutchison 20 (16)
Anthony Beale 10 (10)
Mel Reynolds 5 (8)
Other/undecided 15 (26)

Goal ThermometerThe good news is that Orange to Blue candidate Robin Kelly is in the lead, though that 6-point spread between first and third is tight enough to make it a crap shoot. More interesting (and encouraging) are the trends. This poll was taken after Bloomberg's anti-gun Super PAC started pounding on Halvorson. Whether it is the ads themselves, or whether it's the renewed media focus on guns in this race, fact is that Kelly is benefiting most (as she should).

Furthermore, this is not a district that wants anything to do with the NRA, with just 16 percent of likely voters seeing the organization favorably, compared to 60 percent who don't. And it gets worse for Hutchison and Halvorson:

More troubling for Hutchinson and Halvorson is that a solid majority (56 percent) of voters say they would be "not at all likely" to support a candidate who they agreed with on a majority of issues, but who earned an A from the NRA. Another 15 percent said they would only be “a little likely” to support such a candidate.
Among those who know that Kelly has that "F" from the NRA, she has 65 percent of the vote. One in five of Halvorson's supporters say they wouldn't support a candidate with an "A" rating from the NRA. You better believe this will be a one-note campaign through the end of the month.

And there's no good news for Hutchison in this poll, either: She went from a 34-18 approval rating to 29-37. Why? Guns. And with Bloomberg's outfit doubling down on its attacks on Halvorson with another $382K buy today, the issue isn't going away.

Kelly may be leading in this poll, but she hasn't won. Give $3 to help her finish strong. Over 2,500 of you already have. Don't be shy!

Originally posted to kos on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 12:41 PM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos, Repeal or Amend the Second Amendment (RASA), Shut Down the NRA, and Land of Lincoln Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'm curious ... (3+ / 0-)

    what caused Hutchison to get an "A" from the NRA .. anyone know?

  •  for two decades (7+ / 0-)

    the nra controlled the narrative, and thus the politics. that's over. it starts here.

    The cold passion for truth hunts in no pack. -Robinson Jeffers

    by Laurence Lewis on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 12:47:10 PM PST

  •  I'm an RKBA member and a 2nd supporter, but (0+ / 0-)

    I don't see ammo/clip restrictions as a violation of the 2nd Amendment (ammo is not 'arms') and find the arguments that clip sizes don't matter to (respectfully) be specious at best. Now, a restriction can be poorly written and unsupportable, but that's another issue.

    I see what you did there.

    by GoGoGoEverton on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 12:54:48 PM PST

  •  This is IMPOSSIBLE! Everyone knows that talking (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wader, brn2bwild, Glen The Plumber, Losty

    about firearm regulations loses every single election! (or so would some have us believe).

    Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

    by DefendOurConstitution on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 01:11:10 PM PST

  •  Yeah, but . . . Clinton in 1994! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli, Glen The Plumber

    Or something.

    "So, please stay where you are. Don't move and don't panic. Don't take off your shoes! Jobs is on the way."

    by wader on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 01:15:48 PM PST

  •  When is the primary/election ? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Glen The Plumber
  •  Bloomberg should take aim at Hutchinson (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    57andFemale

    Halvorson got less than 26% of the vote against JJJ in the 2012 primary, at a time when it was pretty clear to voters in the district (I'm one) that he was probably going to be indicted. I think that's her top. Kelly and Hutchinson will split the vote that Jackson got. They're where the race is, absent turnout issues or the emergence of one of the dark horses.

  •  Nice! It's down to organization. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Glen The Plumber

    In a close, low-turn out election like this the winner will likely be whoever has the best GOTV operation. I'm sure donations from DailyKos will help Kelly in that regard.

    I'm not in this district but I got to know Kelly when she ran for State Treasurer. I'm glad to see she's doing well.

  •  Holy shit - Mel Reynolds is still around? n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli, Inland
    •  REDEMPTION (0+ / 0-)

      When he announced he was running, he actually had a big sign with the word "Redemption" on the wall behind him. Like anyone is actually going to vote for a guy who spent time in jail for having sex with an underage teenager.

  •  This is great news. Props to Mayor Bloomberg (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO

    for putting the NRA on the run.

    We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately. B. Franklin

    by Observerinvancouver on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 02:15:21 PM PST

  •  Be careful what you wish for (0+ / 0-)

    Markos,

    I've been a long time fan.  I've been reading Daily Kos since near the beginning.  I have to say I'm really sick of these attacks on Debbie Halvorson.  I'm a friend...we grew up near each other and she has known my family for years.  We both grew up in the new 2nd District. She does not deserve this and neither does this district.

    I am personally against guns so I probably have very similar ideas to the people here.

    First, you can't cheer the Bloomberg PAC on one hand for trashing Debbie and then be against Citizen's United on the other.  These PACs are terrible for our democracy.  We should not support any of them.

    Please keep in mind that Debbie is a mother and grandmother. She is the mother of a veteran who was terribly wounded in Afghanistan and spent a lot of time at Walter Reed. She is the former IL Dem Senate Majority Leader.  She VOTED for Obamacare and lost her seat over it. She is pro choice and she VOTED for the Lilly Ledbetter Act.  She is a huge veteran's advocate and helped to get a mega clinic in Joliet, IL. She VOTED for the Matthew Shepard Hate Crimes act.  She supports gay marriage.  She VOTED for banking reform.  Shall I go on?  She is a proud mainstream, pragmatic Democrat.  She is not some conservative, southern Democrat.

    Toi Hutchinson does not deserve to be trashed either.  She has been a great leader too.

    This race is turning into a one issue race.  It is ridiculous.  This is a poor district.  The discussion should be about jobs, jobs, and more jobs.  It should be about mass transit and the extension of the Chicago Red Line.  It should be about the the Iliana Expressway and the Abraham Lincoln Airport. Instead, Michael Bloomberg and Daily Kos has tried to make it all about guns.  The constituents deserve a lot more.

    I doubt that you have ever been in this district.  In the last remap, a large portion of Will and Kankakee Counties were added to the district.  Why?  So Jesse Jackson Jr. and Cook County officials could get his/their hands on the potential Abraham Lincoln Airport site and Iliana Expressway expansion. I suspect they wanted to dilute the power of emerging powerhouse Will County officials too. These portions of the new district are the edge of the suburbs, exurban, and rural.  These Democrats are hunters and gun owners.  They make up a large portion of the district now.  This new district is no longer a Chicago District.  It encompasses Chicago from the lakefront in Hyde Park all the way to the farm fields of Kankakee.

    So why do the Chicago and Cook County Democrats want to say that Debbie is too conservative?  She is from Will County near the airport site.  They don't want to lose this seat so they want to try anything to trash her.

    So just remember...while you cheer Michael Bloomberg and his PAC because they are siding with you today...tomorrow it could be the Koch Brothers or some other billionaire buying Democracy for their pet cause.

    Also remember, she has been a loyal Democrats voting for all the issues that readers here hold dear and making sure the Obamacare passed the House.  Don't trash a good woman.

    •  PACs are bad, on the whole, but we live in that (0+ / 0-)

      world right now, so we shouldn't stint from using them.  By all means, ban them if possible, but that's not an option in this election.

    •  Airport in Peotone? (0+ / 0-)

      Locals aren't crazy about building an airport from scratch and paving over good farm land in exchange for the noise and pollution an international airport would bring.

      I suspect Debbie was targeted by the Bloomberg commercials because she has a track record on this issue.  The other candidates don't.  

      Boeing moved their corporate headquaters to Gary, Indiana.  Expanding the Gary airport as a third metro airport would make more sense because the ground transit, including public transit, is already in place.  

      Don't look back, something may be gaining on you. - L. "Satchel" Paige

      by arlene on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 03:52:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I heard Robin Kelly speak in person (0+ / 0-)

    when she was running for state treasurer in 2010 (she lost, unfortunately). Pretty impressive. All the Dems in the room who worked in state government (my state senator, staff, others) said they had worked well with her when she was a state representative, and they gave her a strong endorsement. Let's hope for a better outcome this time around.

  •  Gun regulation is important, but it's not all. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JFactor, arlene, pistolSO, Losty

    Guns are a litmus test issue now, in the first election contest since the Sandy Hook massacre. Both sides are doubling down - or is that, doubling up? - with the NRA emphasizing that IL-2 is 1/435th of the House and the Bloomberg PAC, Kos and many others pointing out the NRA's "A" ratings for Robin's two Democratic challengers in the primary.

    But the NRA is a single issue outfit. We must not be. So, what are Robin Kelly's credentials to be a Congresswoman? Glad you asked. Here's her campaign website.

    She is well qualified.

    Robin has extensive experience in community work and social service agencies. From 2001-2007, she was a member of the Illinois House (2001-07) representing Chicago's southern suburbs. In 2010, she ran a strong statewide race for Illinois Treasurer. Although she lost to a well known downstate Republican ("downstate" = all of Illinois except Chicago and its close-in "collar counties") by 45.1% to 49.1%, she ran surprisingly well for someone not known outside the Chicago area. Since that election, she has served as Chief Administrative Officer for Cook County, stepping aside to run for the special election to fill the seat vacated by Jesse Jackson Jr.

    Her resume is excellent, her vote-getting potential proven. Robin Kelly is well qualified to represent IL-2 in Congress.

    2014 IS COMING. Build up the Senate. Win back the House : 17 seats. Plus!

    by TRPChicago on Wed Feb 06, 2013 at 02:49:51 PM PST

  •  3 Independents and 1 Green filed.. (0+ / 0-)

    Filing appears to be done.. No objections yet..

  •  It's an internal Kelly poll (0+ / 0-)

    of course there's no good news for anyone else..

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