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• LA Mayor: Normally, when you have two leading candidates up double digits on election eve, the identity of the candidates who will make it into the runoff election might appear to be a foregone conclusion. In this case, though, in the words of ESPN football dude Lee Corso: "Not so fast, my friend." While it is true that the new LA Times/USC poll has Democratic city Councilman Eric Garcetti (27 percent) and city Controller Wendy Greuel (25 percent) pacing the field, the results of the survey are far more complex.

For one thing, there are still double digits undecided. But, more notably, a simply absurd 46 percent of the potential electorate are still not firmly in the camp of one of the five leading candidates. That means that even though Republican Kevin James (15 percent) and Democratic Councilwoman Jan Perry (14 percent) are a ways back, they are still very much part of the election night equation. The only foregone conclusion seems to be that Latino businessman Emanuel Pleitez is too far afield to make the cut. He's sitting at just 5 percent of the vote, and Garcetti's roots in the Latino community seem to be cutting off Pleitez's oxygen.

P.S. The top two candidates in tomorrow's primary will advance to a May 21 runoff. (Steve Singiser)

10:30 AM PT: GA-Sen: Sophomore GOP Rep. Tom Graves, who was first elected to Congress in a 2010 special election, says he won't run for Georgia's open Senate seat. The decision is not surprising: A number of heavyweights are still considering the race, and the role of designated lunatic has already been filled by fellow Rep. Paul Broun.

But it seems like Graves, who rode into office as a tea partier, isn't quite so interested in playing the conservative outsider anymore: Reporter Daniel Malloy notes that Graves recently voted to increase the debt ceiling, for instance, and Graves himself described his current job as "just the beginning of a long journey." At 43, he's quite a bit younger than the senior members of his state's delegation and now seems to prefer establishing himself as a leader of the next generation of Georgia Republicans rather than taking on the old bulls.

10:44 AM PT: LA-Sen: Here's another Republican congressman who's opting against a Senate bid: Rep. Charles Boustany, who only began openly floating his name just a couple of weeks ago. Boustany's "moderate" profile (moderate for today's GOP, that is) would probably have really hindered him against more conservative opponents, so this move is unsurprising. The real question now is whether there will still be a Republican pileup, or whether the establishment will coalesce around one major option to take on Dem Sen. Mary Landrieu.

11:31 AM PT: VAWA: In the previous Digest, we flagged GOP Rep. Tim Walberg's fraudulent claim that he supported the Violence Against Women Act even though he voted against final passage of the legislation. Walberg's claim is pathetically specious: He voted for a poison-pill GOP "alternative" that was DOA before roll was even called, on account of the fact that it deliberately left out protections for LGBT and Native American women. But as I suspected, he's not alone: Indeed, my Daily Kos colleague Kaili Joy Gray has cataloged several other Republicans peddling the same bullshit, including the likes of Steve King and Michele Bachmann! Please stay on high alert for anyone else running this scam, because I suspect the entire GOP is in on this one.

Well, maybe not the whole party, because when you're talking about Republicans, there are always exceptions who need to prove they're even crazier than their brethren. In this case, I'm talking about the 27 members of the House GOP who voted against both bills: the real VAWA and the sham version. Here's a full list of these pieces of work:


AR-04 Tom Cotton KS-01 Tim Huelskamp TN-02 Jimmy Duncan
AZ-04 Paul Gosar KS-04 Mike Pompeo TN-08 Steve Fincher
AZ-06 David Schweikert NC-03 Walter Jones TX-01 Louie Gohmert
CA-04 Tom McClintock NC-11 Mark Meadows TX-07 John Culberson
CO-05 Doug Lamborn NJ-05 Scott Garrett TX-22 Pete Olson
FL-03 Ted Yoho OK-01 Jim Bridenstine TX-36 Steve Stockman
FL-06 Ron DeSantis OK-02 Markwayne Mullin WA-04 Doc Hastings
FL-19 Trey Radel SC-03 Jeff Duncan WI-05 Jim Sensenbrenner
GA-10 Paul Broun SD-AL Kristi Noem WI-06 Tom Petri

There are some real winners on this list, outcasts like Steve Stockman and Louie Gohmert. But I also spot one actual Senate candidate, Georgia's Paul Broun, and at least one potential Senate candidate, Arkansas's Tom Cotton. There's also a lone woman, Kristi Noem, and just one solitary from the northeast, Scott Garrett. Longtime observers know that Garrett is the most conservative Republican who hails from north of the Mason-Dixon line; he voted against reauthorizing the Voting Rights Act in 2006, for instance. He's proven very difficult to dislodge, but given how far to the right he is, Democrats almost have to find a way to challenge him.

12:20 PM PT: DOMA: Late last week, congressional Democrats joined many others (including President Obama) and filed an amicus brief (PDF) urging the Supreme Court to overturn the Defense of Marriage Act. The vast majority of the party signed on, including 40 senators and 172 members of the House. But that obviously means a whole bunch of elected Democrats did not add their names to the long list of signatories: 15 senators and 29 representatives.

Most of the non-signers aren't too unexpected: Many hail from red states or districts. A number are part of the Congressional Black Caucus or Congressional Hispanic Caucus, some of whose members tend to be somewhat socially conservative even though represent blue turf. But there are also a bunch of real shockers, like Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island and Sen. Tom Udall of New Mexico, both of whom cut very progressive profiles. And then there are a couple of guys who are no surprise at all: Reps. Dan Lipinski (IL-03) and Jim Cooper (TN-05). We already had plenty of reasons to primary both of these guys; here's yet another.

P.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch, running in the Massachusetts special Senate primary, was not listed as a signer but he's blaming an "email glitch" as the reason.

12:48 PM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: The Center for American Progress has made some projections about the growing Latino share of the electorate in coming years. If you thought 2012 was big, wait for 2016: the number of eligible Latino voters is poised to grow from 23.7 million to 27.7 million over the next four years (a 17% increase). They also break out some state-by-state numbers, and while the biggest gains in terms of raw numbers, unsurprisingly, will be in California, Texas, and Florida, some of the other biggest gaining states are in the South: North Carolina, Georgia, and even Alabama.

12:59 PM PT: CA-Gov: Looks like former GOP Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado may interested in a suicide mission: taking on Gov. Jerry Brown in next year's election. Despite the impossible odds, Maldonado says he is "seriously thinking about" a gubernatorial bid. Ol' Abel's been on a bit of a losing streak lately, getting ousted as LG in 2010 by Gavin Newsom and then falling to Rep. Lois Capps in CA-24 last year. Prior to that, he lost a GOP primary for state controller in 2006. Fourth time's the charm?

1:28 PM PT: CO-06: Either time heals all wounds, or Michael Bennet is just a true team player: Late on Friday afternoon, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff blasted out an email saying that Bennett—the man he tried to oust as senator in a 2010 primary—had endorsed him for his House bid. But a Democrat endorsing a Democrat... what's the angle? Well, we're still over a year away from the primary, but it seems like the establishment is rallying around Romanoff and hoping to keep the field clear; Bennet's backing just provides another brick in the wall.

However, two of the most prominent potential contenders for the Dem nomination have already said no (ex-state Rep. Karen Middleton and state Sen. Linda Newell), so the sailing already looked pretty smooth for Romanoff. Perhaps, though, this effort is aimed at deterring a wealthy wildcard like Perry Haney, who sought this seat for a few months last cycle before abruptly dropping out. (For what it's worth, Romanoff is also claiming the endorsements of "every Democratic legislator" in the district.) Or maybe Democrats just want to put vulnerable GOP Rep. Mike Coffman on the defensive as early as possible.

1:33 PM PT: CT-04: I can't possibly imagine Linda McMahon would try a third run for office after her $100 million debacle in back-to-back Senate losses, and indeed, she's already said she has "absolutely no plans to run for office again." But that will never stop the speculators from speculating: Greenwich Time reports (based on an unnamed source) that the local GOP has "quietly tried to gauge McMahon's interest" in running against Dem Rep. Jim Himes in CT-04. Props to reporter Neil Vigdor, though, who doesn't hesitate to throw cold water on the idea, noting that McMahon only won 46 percent of the vote in the 4th last year. What's more, Himes crushed his reasonably well-financed GOP opponent by a 60-40 margin, so I'm actually inclined to believe McMahon—for once.

1:49 PM PT: NE-Sen: State AG Jon Bruning says he will not run for Nebraska's newly open Senate seat and will instead seek re-election to his current post. This is no surprise, seeing as Bruning's history with Senate races isn't particularly good: He was the establishment favorite (up to a point) in last year's GOP primary but lost to the unheralded Deb Fischer; and in 2007, he briefly sought the seat that's now up for grabs before making way for Mike Johanns, who unexpectedly decided to retire last month.

2:03 PM PT: ME-Gov: This could be really big news: For the first time, Dem Rep. Mike Michaud has acknowledged that he's "looking at" a possible gubernatorial bid, though he cautions that he has not "set any timelines on making a final decision." A PPP poll in late January showed Michaud as the strongest possible Democrat to take on GOP Gov. Paul LePage: In a head-to-head matchup, Michaud crushes him by a giant-size 57-36 margin.

But independent candidate Eliot Cutler, who finished second in the 2010 contest, has already announced another run, and thanks to his left-leaning views, he pulls votes almost exclusively from Michaud in PPP's three-way test. That scenario hands LePage a narrow 34-30 win, with Cutler taking 26 percent—something that may well be the biggest obstacle for Michaud. Still, Cutler's never witnessed the firepower of the fully armed and operational battle station that a DGA-backed Michaud bid would represent, and I'd be willing to bet that Democratic internal polls show a path to victory that involves blasting Cutler into Alderaan-sized chunks. May the Force be with you, Mike Michaud.


2:57 PM PT: PA-Gov: According to PoliticsPA, state Auditor General Jack Wagner has started circulating petitions to get on the ballot for the Pittsburgh mayoral race, suddenly left open by Mayor Luke Ravenstahl's abrupt decision not to seek re-election. We're filing this under PA-Gov, though, because Wagner was a possible gubernatorial candidate; running for mayor probably means it's a lot less likely that he'll make a statewide bid, though the primary is in May, so if he were to lose, he conceivably still could run in 2014.

3:09 PM PT: NJ-Sen: Sweet Jesus, what scumbaggery:

An escort who appeared on a video claiming Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) paid her for sex has told Dominican Republic police that she was instead paid to make up the claims in a tape recording and has never met or seen the senator before, according to court documents and two people briefed on her claim. [...]

The escort was one of two women who taped videos that seems to support a tipster’s allegations that Menendez had patronized prostitutes while vacationing in the Dominican Republic.

FBI agents conducting interviews in the Dominican Republic have found no evidence to back up the tipster's allegations, according to two people briefed on their work. [...]

"It's amazing to me that anonymous, nameless, faceless individuals on a Web site can drive that type of story into the mainstream, but that's what they've done successfully," Menendez said last month. "Now, nobody can find them. No one ever met them. No one ever talked to them, but that's where we're at. So the bottom line is all of those smears are absolutely false and, you know, that's the bottom line."

Those videos, by the way, first appeared on the right-wing rag Daily Caller, raising the question of whether the Daily Caller was out to get Menendez, or whether they were someone else's willing dupes. I'm going to bet the latter, though we may never find out.

3:25 PM PT: NC-10: Asheville Mayor Terry Bellamy announced late last week that she'll run against GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry next year instead of seeking re-election to her current position. Bellamy tried to do the same thing last year, but lost badly in the Democratic primary to then-state Rep. Patsy Keever. Keever herself went on to lose to McHenry by 14 points, similar to Mitt Romney's 17-point margin of victory. Given demographics like that, I can't see how Bellamy could win barring a monster wave or a remarkable scandal engulfing McHenry.

3:44 PM PT: MN-06: Wealthy hotelier Jim Graves may be interested in a rematch with the singular Michele Bachmann, whom he nearly unseated last year. Graves sent out an email to his supporters on Monday attacking Bachmann for her vote opposing the Violence Against Women Act (a vote she's been trying to hide from), which is the kind of thing people do when they're angling to run for office again.

Though Graves came very close to beating Bachmann in November (losing by less than 2 percent), this is an incredibly tough district just thanks to its demographics: Mitt Romney carried it 57-42. It's a testament to Bachmann's unique ability to turn off Republican voters that Graves even came so close. If he did manage to win, though, he'd face a much more generic R opponent in 2016, which would, in its own way, be an even harder race. In any event, Graves previously said he'll decide by April 1, so we'll know soon.

4:00 PM PT: MA-Sen: On Friday, the Massachusetts AFL-CIO voted against endorsing either Stephen Lynch or Ed Markey in the Democratic primary for Senate. Lynch in particular had been making a play for the labor federation's backing but he failed to secure the two-thirds support necessary of the group's executive board. Because Lynch has been counting on unions to power him to victory, this decision has generally been portrayed as a blow to his hopes. However, the constituent unions that make up the AFL are all still presumably free to make endorsements on their own.

4:04 PM PT: CT-Gov: Lots of Republicans seem to be interested in Connecticut's next gubernatorial race, so here's another one: State Sen. Toni Boucher isn't ruling out a bid of her own.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 06:00:13 AM PST

  •  Holy snow! (6+ / 0-)

    If you're a resident of the upper Midwest, drive very carefully. The first few inches are really slick in Minneapolis, and we are expecting a foot more in the next 24 hours.

  •  CA-GOV: Abel Maldonado thinking of running (12+ / 0-)

    http://www.sfgate.com/...

    This really seems like a terrible idea.  Yes, it's possible Jerry Brown could crater if the state economy starts growing in the wrong direction again, but right now it looks very likely that Brown will utterly destroy anyone who runs against him.  And yes, the state party would love to have anyone but the radioactive Tim Donnelly as their standard bearer.  Still, you have to wonder how many times Maldonado can lose by double digits and still be taken seriously.

    As a former constituent of Maldonado, I know the guy has some real political talent.  If he played his cards right I could see him ressurecting his political career in the near future by winning a lower statewide office.  But unless something weird happens, it looks like he's going to experience three double digit defeats in four years (if he even makes it passed Donnelly).  But hey, if he wants to ignore my concern trolling and lose, I won't object.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 07:25:38 AM PST

    •  He is about as good as it gets for the CA-GOP (4+ / 0-)

      Not that it is saying much. But he would be as good of a recruit Republicans could hope for.

      •  Wonder if Rove would put his $ (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        where his mouth is, and spend heavily on a top-tier GOP recruit like Maldonado. Or perhaps with online voter registration and vote-by-mail, it's just too late no matter what they do.

        (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

        by TrueBlueDem on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:26:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not really a viable target (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          It'd he foolish for Republicans to spend any money on statewide races in California.

          •  not sure I agree (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            kleinburger, James Allen, MichaelNY

            Wisconsin was dominated by Republicans until fellas like Bill Proxmire, and Gaylord Nelson, and Patrick  Lucey were willing to run losing campaigns for statewide office.  Losing campaigns that are run well provide the foundation for future growth and success, and attract the next generation of party candidates and leaders.  Goldwater's campaign in 1964 was just as important to the GOP on the national level. Losing campaigns run with other goals in mind do not help much however, I must agree.  

            But if Karl Rove is playing in California state politics, I would have to believe he is building for the future, not just to generate another 99% lack of success rate.

            "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

            by walja on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 02:57:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Which statewide office could Abel win? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, abgin, MichaelNY

          He lost badly when he ran for Lt Gov as an incumbent. Without incumbency how will he do better for Treasurer, Controller, SoS or whatever?

           I don't see the CAGOP winning any statewide offices in 2014. Their brand works for niche areas, but not the whole state.

      Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

      by Zack from the SFV on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:26:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  At this point (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        I would tell that no-one.

        I hope to see strong Democrats running for all the open offices.

      •  he wasn't an incumbent (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        he was appointed

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:54:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  in 2014, none of them (6+ / 0-)

        Brown isn't going to lose, and Maldo can't credibly run for AG because he isn't a lawyer. Harris is highly unlikely to lose anyway as an incumbent who hasn't gotten any bad press and can point to some accomplishments. Everything below AG just becomes generic R v. generic D, which the GOP loses.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 09:01:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe if Bustamonte runs for something (2+ / 0-)

          Maldonado could win it.  But I highly doubt that.

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 09:11:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  OUCH! (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            abgin

               Cruz Bustamante is now officially a joke. (And Abel "I'm slightly more moderate than my brother Cain" Maldonado is right behind him!)

            Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

            by Zack from the SFV on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 10:01:58 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Wrong (0+ / 0-)

              He's been one since losing a race for Insurance Commissioner. Just three years after being the quasi-official gubernatorial candidate in the 2003 recall.

            •  How the heck did he lose to Poizner 40-60 in 2006? (0+ / 0-)

              that's steeper than I imagined

              "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 11:36:50 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well there was this (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, Zack from the SFV
                California Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, who once tipped the scales at nearly 300 pounds, has made his new weight-loss regimen the centerpiece of his campaign for state insurance commissioner. Bustamante's strategy? if he loses, he wins.
                http://www.npr.org/...

                and this ad lol

                http://www.youtube.com/...

                perhaps he should have just focused on campaigning instead of weight loss.

                In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

                by lordpet8 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 11:45:38 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That and Poizner (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, Zack from the SFV

                  ran as a relatively moderate, "enlightened" reformist Republican. He had come very close to winning a state house district in 2004 that voted something like 70-30 Kerry (partially due to spending millions of dollars out of pocket).  Poizner presented himself as socially liberal, moderate on immigration, pragmatic on taxation issues, and if I recall, made a big, populist deal out of not taking contributions from the Insurance industry, which he attacked Bustmante for doing (attacked Bustamante in fact, for taking a majority of his campaign funds, I believe from the Insurance industry). A lot of moderates, left leaning independents, and even leftists and establishment who simply disliked Bustamante pulled the lever for Poizner.

                  Poizner of course showed his true, nasty colors and personality, along with his craven political desperation, in his 2010 Gubernatorial race where he ran as a true conservative alternative to Meg Whitman.

                  "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                  by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 12:17:32 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Wow, which State House district is this? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14

                    and how close was he to winning it?

                    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 01:47:25 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Found it: (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      walja, ArkDem14, Zack from the SFV

                      http://www.sos.ca.gov/...
                      It was in AD-21 and he lost 48.4-51.6% and covered San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties.  He spent 4 million of his own money on it.

                      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 02:02:13 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  4 million on a state legislature district? (4+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        walja, kleinburger, ArkDem14, KingofSpades

                        Oh my.

                      •  This was my Assembly District (3+ / 0-)

                        I wish I could give you many details about the race but I was 14 and not paying attention to anything but the Presidential race.  I remember Poizner looked like he had won on election day but was done in by late counted ballots.  

                        The man who beat Poizner, Dem Ira Ruskin, was a great Assemblymember and I don't think Democratic leaning voters went for Poizner because of anything Ruskin did.  One thing that probably hurt Ruskin was the fact that he was fairly well known in San Mateo County but almost completely unknown in the larger Santa Clara County part of the district.  Poizner's money helped him introduce himself to those voters and compensate for his own lack of name recognition at the start of the race.  

                        23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

                        by Jeff Singer on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 03:44:16 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Do you remember if Poizner saturated the media? (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Darth Jeff

                          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                          by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 07:08:06 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  I don't remember seeing anything from him (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            KingofSpades, ArkDem14

                            But at the time I took full advantage of my Tivo to avoid all commercials so I don't think I would have seen them if they were there.  Based on how close the race was and how the district pretty much always favors a generic Democrat over a generic Republican by a landslide (Ruskin and his successor Rich Gordon never had any problems in the general election after 2004) I have to assume Poizner did run a lot of ads.  

                            23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

                            by Jeff Singer on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 07:45:56 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

              •  Arnie Coattails + stink of losing the recall (3+ / 0-)

                Poizner presented himself in the same mold as the Governator, back when he was really popular. Bustamante was essentially the consensus Dem nominee in the recall and he ran a lousy campaign that he lost handily. That and some of the stuff ArkDem14 mentions, basically it.

                I think Poizner was the only GOP official elected statewide during the Schwarzenegger era, beside Arnie himself. Bruce McPherson got to be Secretary of State for a year after that was vacated, and Maldonado got a shot at Lt. Gov., but that was their entire bench. Incredible to believe those were their salad days.

    •  on the other hand (4+ / 0-)

      does he really have a shot at winning down the line?  California isn't getting any less blue, even in 2010 it wasn't, really, though there were some close races.  

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:27:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, it'll reduce him to joke candidate. (6+ / 0-)

      He couldn't even hold LG in 2010.  He lost by 11% to the less likable Gavin Newsom.  Then he took advantage of top two to run against Capps in her de-gerrymandered district only to lose by over 10% again.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:38:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  wrong cycle unless Brown steps down (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      No one is going to beat Brown in the general, and in the primary Brown will get most of the indies that Maldonado needs to get.

      In 2018 Maldonado could make a serious run as either a Republican or independent. The indies would be up for grabs again, and Maldo could probably scrape together enough indies and GOP moderates to make the top 2. I would not count him out in the general especially against Newsom, who will likely rub a lot of voters the wrong way. Maldo lost badly to Newsom in 2010, but the LG race got very little attention and degenerated into generic R v. generic D. In a governor race, people focus on the candidates and not just the party labels.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:57:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Maldonado's options (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, ArkDem14, JBraden

      If Maldonado wants to regain elected office, I don't see him having any good options.   But with the CA GOP in such dire straights, they may need him to at least try.

      He could try running for CA-24 again.  Capps is 75 and could retire soon, and he'd have a much better shot at an open seat.  Still, if she were thinking about retirement you'd think she'd have done it in 2012 as she faced a tough reelection.  Maldonado could try challenging her in 2014 with the hopes that the midterms will give him better demographics and an anti-Demoratic climate.  Capps is no pushover and losing twice in a row could be career suicide for him.  

      He could go forward with running for Governor in 2014.  Very high reward if he gets lucky and wins, and if he keeps it relatively close that's good for his long-term prospects.  But he's much more likely to get destroyed by Brown.  There's even the chance he doesn't make it to November: that would probably be the end of his career.

      He could try running for a lower statewide office.  Won't be easy but he has decent name recognition and money, plus he could pick an office with no incumbent.  If he loses but does decently it could give his career a shot in the arm.  Of course, what's more likely is he loses again.

      He could wait it out.  Maybe in 2018 he'll have a much better shot winning an open seat gubernatorial race.  The big danger is that by 2018 no one will remember or care who he is.

      If I were him I'd probably wait it out.  As I said earlier, losing three times in a row by double digits is the type of thing that finishes political careers.  We have no idea what 2018 will look like but if things are bad in the state and people are frustrated, it's far from impossible that they'd turn to a relatively moderate Republican.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 10:18:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  of the CA GOP delegation (0+ / 0-)

      who's considered the strongest - meaning someone who seems to be very popular and overperforms the baseline consistently? Valadao is probably the strongest incumbent, buy I doubt he wants to give up his seat since it could flip if he were to retire.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 11:07:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Issa (0+ / 0-)

        Given the fact that he can self-fund an entire statewide race on his shown would make him an attractive recruit for Republicans.

      •  only some incumbents care about that. (0+ / 0-)

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 12:05:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I would say Denham (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GloFish, ehstronghold, MichaelNY

        In 2012 he overperformed his district's baseline against a serious, well-funded opponent, as he did several times previously in state Senate races. Most of the others (including Valadao) can't really be evaluated, as they have never drawn serious challenges.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 12:33:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Royce also got heavily funded opposition (0+ / 0-)

          and still managed 57 percent. Denham's ideology is more in line with a statewide repub though.

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 12:53:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Denham (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Also performed really well in his State Senate district despite it voting 59% for Obama in 2008. I am really worried about his appeal.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

          by Alibguy on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 01:31:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Don't be (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Republicans are confined to the House for their ambitions. Denham is a good politician in a swingy area, but this state simply has too many hard partisan D's for a Republican to win anything statewide at this point. That might change a little bit if Republicans remain below 1/3 in the state leg. so that people forget how irresponsible and awful they were, and if Congress passes something good on immigration with lots of R support. The latter, especially, seems unlikely to me.

      •  None of the GOP delegation is ready (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kleinburger, MichaelNY

        for a statewide race and none seem to be thinking about one in the future. Darrell Issa ran in the Senate primary in 1998 and almost ran in the recall before being pushed out for Arnold, but  I think he's content with his spot in the House. Tom McClintock has run statewide before but he is extremely conservative and abrasive. Devin Nunes threatened to run against Feinstein in 2012 if she didn't change her position on water in the San Joaquin Valley. Feinstein didn't respond and Nunes didn't run. Anyway Nunes isn't viable. He's loathed by many and he's become almost a one issue person over the last several years.

        Because of gerrymandering they all run in safe districts and to win a safe GOP district one has to be very conservative. Also most haven't run in a competitive race for years (except maybe Jeff Denham). Mary Bono may have been the best future candidate they had in that she had a moderate profile, decent name recognition and was well like enough to avoid a messy primary. But as her race in 2012 showed she was pretty terrible at campaigning. She was rusty and stand offish.

        In general, I think its pretty hopeless for the CA GOP.  Even Gavin Newsom cracked 50% in a statewide race against a 'moderate' well-funded incumbent in a terrible year for Democrats. That illustrates more than anything how bad the GOP is now in California.

        •  interesting tidbit: Dan Lungren has held statewide (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          office before. Who'd have thought him of all people could have done that?

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 02:21:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He held it (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            skibum59, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            In the early 90s and won reelection in 1994 when Pete Wilson won on Prop 187 coattails.

            Lungren in 1998 though lost by 20 points to  Gray Davis.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

            by Alibguy on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 03:18:57 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  He was the Attorney-General (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            he got his start as a Congressman in the late 70's in suburban LA (coastal side) where he was a conservative who opposed things like busing.  When he served as A-G, he lived in Sac County, and ran for Congress there when his run against Gray Davis failed.

            "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 07:03:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  I'm just going to say this right now (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Abel Maldonado isn't going to be winning anytime soon.  He couldn't beat what I would consider a weak ass candidate in Gavin Newsom.  In 2010.  A HUGE REPUBLICAN WAVE YEAR.  He should just settle down and end his political career.  He really has no future in my opinion.

      Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Ryan Dack on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 03:02:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He didn't form achievable goals (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        He's actually not a bad guy (used to be my state rep.), though highly overrated by a state GOP that's not exactly drowning under piles of hopes at this point. But his career is in shambles right now because he couldn't figure out a path or even seemingly a goal. He didn't seem to want to be a House member, even though that would have been a realistic option had he ran against Lois Capps in 2010. More realistic than in 2012, after two failed statewide races. I think that either the state party tried to push him because they overrated his talents, or if he pushed too much. Not that it matters.

  •  NC-Gov - McCrory's negatives up (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin, JBraden, MichaelNY

    Civitas Poll (right-wing front group)

    McCrory
    41 fav - 11 unfav - 48 undecided  in January (+30)
    46 fav - 28 unfav - 26 undecided Feb 21-25 (+18)

    Undecided voters broke 17-5 against McCrory in 6 weeks.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    NC Republicans have also filed a bill to

    eliminate straight-party ticket voting.
    There are also rumors of a bill to return NC judicial races to being  partisan races.

    Filibuster reform, 2013 - woulda, coulda, shoulda.

    by bear83 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:27:35 AM PST

    •  North Carolina politics will be broken until... (9+ / 0-)

      The United States mandates fair redistricting at a federal level. As it is, the "weak executive" model defangs the governor in North Carolina while giving the legislature superpowers, and the gerrymander legislators drew to protect their own asses and lock in an absurdly Republican-skewed congressional delegation in 2011 isn't just going to vanish on its own.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:43:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thank you Democrats (4+ / 0-)

        You're absolutely right, but you have to remember, the only reason the legislature still has full control over redistricting is because the Democrats got scared when Republicans started to get elected in NC in the '80s and '90s and made sure they didn't give the Gov any power.

        I think NC is probably heading into a dark couple of years; I could be wrong, McCrory may still turn out to be an okay Governor, but he hasn't impressed me so far.  He'll probably be a two-termer but I see Roy Cooper finally running for Governor in 2020.  He's been biding his time as Atty Gen, he didn't run for Gov in '08 because Perdue and others were already vying for it, and he didn't run in '12 because he knew Democrats would lose.  I think he'll go in 2020 and maybe sweep Democrats back into the legislature by then.  There's a light at the end of the tunnel....

        •  The gerrymander makes Democratic control... (5+ / 0-)

          Of the legislature virtually impossible. It's the same story in many states. We need fair redistricting nationwide, done by independent panels of experts with considerable public input, as in California, and we need it now. It's foolish for Democrats not to make this the cause celebre two months into a 113th Congress that looks to be even more pathetic than the 112th Congress, despite a majority of voters nationwide preferring the Democratic candidate in the House, Senate, and presidential races. Without gerrymandering, there would be no Republican majority in the House; there would be no sequestration; there would be no playing chicken with the nation's economy.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 09:20:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  And so it begins.... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, LordMike

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 09:36:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Scott Walker (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, MichaelNY

      eliminated straight party voting in Wisconsin.  That was a part of the bill that passed Court scrutiny.  Two cases are pending over the voter ID bill has stayed many of his other awful changes.  Prebius/Ryan/Walker want to make it as difficult and tedious to vote as possible.  Can't let the "urban" vote surprise the GOP again in 2014 after all.

      Partisan Judicial races?  Yuk.  Even Scott Walker hasn't gone there ........ yet.

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 03:07:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NC-Sen - Teabagger candidate for Senate (6+ / 0-)

    I wonder if Kay Hagan could ever get this lucky:

    the recent early announcement by Dr. Greg Brannon, a Cary obstetrician, has the state Democratic Party already warning against a primary campaign that will be “a race to the right.”

    Brannon advertises himself as “pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax, states’ rights.”

    He also claims to be one of the original tea party members, according to a transcript of a radio interview Feb. 26

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    Filibuster reform, 2013 - woulda, coulda, shoulda.

    by bear83 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:31:12 AM PST

  •  Kenya-Pres. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bythesea, MichaelNY

    Polls have closed (though stations with long queues--up to 10 hours in some places--have remained open to accommodate those already in line).

    Provisional results for the first round election are here:
    http://elections.nation.co.ke/...
    Central Kenya (candidate Uhuru Kenyatta's home turf) seems to be counted first. Nearly 9 million voters turned out for the referendum adopting a new constitution in 2010. Turnout figures will probably be very similar this year.

    28, Male, MA-07 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:38:22 AM PST

  •  LA Mayor poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

    Election Day is only tomorrow there and at USC where I'm a freshman, interest in the political campaigns is pretty low. Besides members of the USC College Democrats and USC College Republicans, not too many people are following the mayor and city council races.

    I'm also interning for the District 9 city council race and supporting Deputy Chief of Police Terry Hara, the first Asian Deputy Chief of Police. He is running to improve public safety around USC and he famously caught a serial rapist at USC in the 1980s by going undercover similar to 21 Jump St. It has been a really great race.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:51:27 AM PST

  •  And so Jeb Bush destroys his credibility (11+ / 0-)

    by flip-flopping on citizenship to any illegal immigrants.  He said it would invite a new "wave" of illegal immigration.
    http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
    So much for him being one sane Republican leader on this issue.

    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 09:14:59 AM PST

  •  Louisiana has a Mayor? (6+ / 0-)

        Nitpicking here but LA is the postal abbreviation for Louisiana while L.A. is my hometown. In Los Angeles local politics is a minor sport, sort of like following hockey or soccer rather than the Lakers, Dodgers or even the Clippers. The people that pay closest attention are those with a direct stake in the outcomes; city workers, developers and others who do business (or want to do business) with the city. There are also partisan activists and neighborhood groups that get involved.

        There were more Mayoral debates than GOP presidential primary debates in 2012. I went to three of them: The L.A. League of Conservation Voters debate in Little Tokyo (which was televised), the DP/SFV debate in Van Nuys and the Sherman Oaks Homeowners Assn debate. None of the candidates is super exciting; there isn't a Chris Paul or Blake Griffin in the bunch. I am for Eric Garcetti, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if Wendy Greuel wins. I don't think that the Gay Okie GOP talk show host (Kevin James) has much of a chance to make the runoff. Jan Perry has an outside chance if the turnout in the Black community is strong for her.

        There is one candidate that I strongly support: Mike Feuer for City Attorney . Mike would be a major upgrade over the GOP incumbent Carmen "Nothing I say is True" Trutanich.
    Mike is my former City Councilmember and CA Assemblymember. He is a brilliant and hardworking progressive who previously ran a public interest law firm (Bet Tzedek).  I like Mike!

         I am working on a L.A. elections preview diary which should come out tonight or more likely tomorrow morning. Polls are open 7AM to 8PM; your vote is more powerful since so few other Angelenos will bother to turn out.

    Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

    by Zack from the SFV on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 09:57:38 AM PST

  •  TX Congressional districts, '08 vs. '12 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Charles Kuffner has a table with lots of numbers. What strikes me is that almost every single Dem district swung towards the Democrats. They didn't just trend, but actually swing in absolute terms. The only exceptions were TX-16 and TX-23, and they had only a tiny R swing, while still trending Dem by a few points.

    Joe Burton's TX-06 also had a D trend, and looks like it might be competitive by the end of the decade. Maybe a good place do do a Battleground Texas test run...?

    One observation from Kuffner:

    You can mostly break this down into three groups. The first is the Overacheivers, the Congressional candidates that clearly drew at least some crossover votes. On that list are Reps. Ted Poe, Joaquin Castro, Pete Olson, Pete Gallego, and Henry Cuellar. Olson, one presumes, benefited from being opposed by LaRouchie nutcase Keisha Rogers. We’ll have to wait to see how he’ll do against a normal opponent, which one hopes will be this time around. Castro and Cuellas can point to their numbers as evidence for statewide viability someday, if and when they choose to make such a run. Gallego obviously had to be on this list, or he wouldn’t be Rep. Gallego. I guess the Republicans knew what their were doing when they tried to pull all those shenanigans to protect Quico Canseco, because he really did need the help.
    •  TX-6 didn't trend between the two elections (6+ / 0-)

      It stayed flat at R+11. The overall trend was from the 04 result dropping out of the PVI, which was probably entirely from Bush's home state effect.

      The only district that I think could be competitive by decade's end is one I am in agreement with Kuffner on: TX-27. Farenthold is a horrible incumbent and the district is plurality Hispanic. If you can up registration and turnout, that district is instantly more competitive especially against Farenthold.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 11:04:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  TX-Gov: Kuffner also talks about a couple of names (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, pistolSO, MichaelNY

      for next year's election - but mostly to dismiss them: Bill White, who says he won't be running, and San Antonio State Rep. Mike Villarreal, who probably doesn't have enough of a profile. He also name drops Henry Cisneros and Cecile Richards, mostly in an exercise of wishful thinking.

      •  Villarreal (0+ / 0-)

        Would actually be kindof awesome, if only because I have the big suspicion that he's a hot gay sex scandal waiting to happen.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 03:23:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Elon Poll - NC on gun cotrol, immigration (7+ / 0-)

    Whatever impression we may have of Gov McCrory and the nuts running the NC General Assembly, guess where NC residents stand on gun control & immigration?

    Gun control:
    93% support full background checks
    83% support mandatory waiting period for handgun purchases
    56% support ban on assault rifles
    55% support limit on magazines

    80% support path to citizenship for illegal immigrants (including 69% of Republicans)
    72% support voter ID

    http://www.wral.com/...

    Filibuster reform, 2013 - woulda, coulda, shoulda.

    by bear83 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 10:42:25 AM PST

  •  Energy, EPA, OMB picks (8+ / 0-)

    Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    MIT physicist Ernest Moniz for Energy, Jackson lieutenant Gina McCarthy for EPA, and Wallmart Foundation (Wallmart's charity) head Sylvia Mathew Burwell for OMB.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 10:49:44 AM PST

  •  There's actually one more potential senate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, redrelic17, MichaelNY

    candidate among that list who voted against both versions of the VAWA: Dave Schweikert. He seems almost guaranteed to run to succeed McCain should he retire in 2016 as seems likely.

  •  Does anyone think Jeb's flip on (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bythesea, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    a pathway to citizenship hurts comprehensive immigration reform in Congress? TPM seems to be playing up that angle.

    I could see it affecting Rubio's stance. But he has always been a bit cautious, trying to get a deal done, but not wanting to anger the right.

    That said, I dont see McCain/Graham/Flake flipping on that issue.

    And I dont think it would affect the stance of other non elected Republicans who are pushing for citizenship(like Carlos Guiterrez, for instance).

    But I suppose it's something to watch.

    •  McCain and Graham might yet find an excuse (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 12:20:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think so. The Obama honeymoon is over. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, skibum59, MichaelNY

      They don't have to pretend to work with him - obstruct everything and anything seems to work best for them.  House is gerrymandered out of reach, so the GOP has nothing to fear really.  They have all the control they need.  

      GOP will send Obama an ugly reform and say "take it or leave it" and either he signs the bad bill and pisses off comprehensive reform supporters or doesn't and nothing gets done.  

      GOP is the nihilist party who fixed the system, and with help from Harry Reid, have given them all the power.  

      If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 12:37:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I thought so & tweeted so earlier today, BUT... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, jj32, MichaelNY

      ...upon further consideration, I think perhaps not.  It might very well die in the House or even the Senate, and everyone will point to "Jeb Bush" as a reason, but they will be wrong.

      I tweeted early today that his flip-flop might prove a canary in a coal mine on the mindset of the GOP base.  But after thinking it through, that was silly of me to think.  We already know what the GOP base thinks.  And Jeb Bush doesn't know any more than I do what the GOP base will think or consider decisive 2-3 years from now.

      Maybe this is a sincere change of thinking on his part, but if this is a political flip, it's dumb.  That he now wants non-citizenship legalization is not a compromise anyone believes in.  It really does relegate people to a permanent second-class status that Democrats and Hispanics and other communities of color will reject.  And it's still more than conservatives consider acceptable, since their concern is not merely these people voting but that they "are lawbreakers" and "are stealing our jobs."  Moreover, Jeb Bush is personally highly respected in the GOP and his family brand is still strong enough within the party to scare off a lot of rivals in 2016...not all of them, but a lot of them.

      I don't think this automatically kills comprehensive reform.  I think it still could happen in some way.  Probably not, but enough in the GOP know they need to do it not to give up easily.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 07:34:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NE-Sen, NE-Gov: Bruning says he's not running (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bumiputera, MichaelNY

    for Senate.  He says he'll run for reelection, which presumably means he's not running for Governor either.  

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 12:04:57 PM PST

  •  Not completely sure (5+ / 0-)

    but it seems Bob Massie has helped cure HIV in a child for the first time ever. This should help him secure at least 540 electoral votes in 2016's presidential election.

    (In all seriousness, how did his notoriety on this site start? He seemed like a pretty decent candidate for MA-Sen before Warren got in, given that none of the congressmen were running.)

    Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 12:53:45 PM PST

  •  Teabaggers running ads against Rigell (9+ / 0-)

    "Teamed up with anti-gun Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy to pass Obama's gun control"

    "donated $1000 to Obama's campaign in 2008"

    "one of two Republicans AGAINST holding Eric Holder in contempt"

    The ads are by a pro-gun group, actually, but this is the second time today I've seen them.  Earlier on the radio and just now on TV.  If they air enough his favorables will certainly drop among Republicans.

    •  Nothing about appearing with the president? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 01:36:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I actually feel sorry for him... (10+ / 0-)

      even if it does mean we get more likely to pick up the seat in 2 years.  I listened to him on the local public radio station this afternoon, and he does seem like he genuinely cares about his constituents.  Too bad the tea party never has and never will.  

      He's a semi-moderate representative in a semi-moderate district.  He fits as well as a Republican could in that district (which should be held by a Democrat).  My hands are tied, as I refuse to help Republicans, but I do feel sorry for him, as he's not as partisan as most.

      •  I think it's a little more Republican leaning (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        Obama did win it but that was mostly because of sky-high minority turnout in the district.  Bush won it with ~57-58% in 2004, some of that may have been because the military was pro-Republican that year, but it's a conservative leaning district, IMO.

    •  Given how the defense cuts are (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      going to hit the Hampton Roads area, Rigell could see a dual backlash if he even survives the Republican primary.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 05:19:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madmojo

    that this quest for ideological purity by primarying Dan Lipinski and Jim Cooper over their positions on same-sex marriage is at all constructive, especially seeing that both their districts are socially conservative in nature. Nashville voted for the Tennessee Marriage Amendment by a massive margin of over 2 to 1. They represent their districts on this particular issue well.

    Iranian and German by origin. British by birth.

    by germankid101 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 01:21:55 PM PST

  •  Kristi Noem voted against VAWA??!!!?? (6+ / 0-)

    What the hell is the matter with that woman?

  •  DOMA (3+ / 0-)

    Yet another reason to primary Pete Visclosky.

  •  Dominican Escorts Recant. (20+ / 0-)

    WaPo reports that lawyers paid escorts in the Dominican Republic to read a fabricated story about Senator Menendez into the camera. FBI finds no evidence.

    Starting to smell like the work of O'Keefe. It wouldn't be the first time he went after Menendez.

    Kudos to KoS for calling bullshit immediately. Good instincts.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 02:33:10 PM PST

  •  WI-GOV - couple of late comments (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    This was widely commented on this weekend, but for those like me who were late to the party, Scott Walker is no longer under investigation in the John Doe situation.

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    A couple of thoughts:

    1). This didn't seem commented on this weekend, but this cements Walker as being favored to be reelected next year. I'd almost say likely Republican, but Walker's favorable's aren't that good. Still, it's hard for me to see him being beat. (I know some DKE commentators don't share this sentiment) And on that note...

    2). If he wins reelection, Walker will almost certainly look at a presidential run in 2016.

    3). At one point, I said I thought there was a 50-50 chance of Walker being indicted. I still think the MKE DA came closer to doing that then this action showed. Anecdotally, a friend of mine who works for a DA's office not in Wisconsin told me since the Ted Stevens fiasco, he thinks its harder to bring cases like this against politicians, particularly if the office bringing the case is run by a different party. Unless its an airtight case (ie Jesse Jackson), they are just a lot more careful. The MKE DA must have just thought there wasn't enough to make a case beyond a reasonable doubt against Walker, and in light of Walker's win in the recall bringing a less than airtight case may have looked like an attempt to overturn the verdict of the voters.

    Shorter version: I thought it was unlikely Walker would be indicted since the recall.

    •  I would not tell Likely R (4+ / 0-)

      the last poll was not good for him. The recall was a strong coup, but still I think this race will be competitive.

    •  Walker's approval rating is 48% (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, LordMike

      Given how polarized Wisconsin's electorate is (it's very difficult these days for a major-party candidate in a Wisconsin statewide race to get below 45% of the vote), that's actually a fairly low approval rating.

      Democrats have serious messaging issues in Wisconsin, though. After learning that Walker wouldn't be charged with corruption, Graeme Zielinski, then the Democratic Party of Wisconsin's communications director, went on an unhinged Twitter rant and compared Scott Walker to serial killer Jeffrey Dahmer. Zielinski was demoted from communications director to media adviser, and Zielinski will not be allowed to use Twitter while he is still on the DPW's payroll.

      I've read several Wisconsin-based progressive blogs, and, while there are a few apologists out there that are defending Zielinski, there are quite a few others who are calling for DPW chairman Mike Tate to be fired. The next election for DPW chair, if I'm not mistaken, is in early June of this year at the DPW state convention in Waukesha County, although no challenger to Tate has stepped up as of yet.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 09:30:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-05: Will Markey endorse Brownsberger? (0+ / 0-)

    Brownsberger has been sent to several meetings as a representative of Markey's campaign: http://www.thecrimson.com/...

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 03:15:27 PM PST

  •  ME-Gov (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, JBraden, MichaelNY, LordMike

    Very good news that the US House Representatives from Maine give signs for 2014. I glad a lot. I hope M Michaud runs.

    I'm not very afraid about ME-02 because the Democratic bench for the seat include strong candidates like J Baldacci, former governor and former US representative (of this seat), P Colwell, former Speaker of the state house, M Dunlapp, current secretary of state, and J Mils, current attorney general.

    I think it is time for M Michaud and C Pingree. If one of them wins ME-Gov for 2014 will be the frontrunner for ME-Sen 2020 (if is still in Republican hands).

    I think that M Michaud and C Pingree really have only two bids for the senate seat of S Collins. Two bids for the two. Now and in 2020. 2026 can be too late for both.

  •  NJ-Sen, I knew this story was bull shit, I like (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, askew, MichaelNY

    Menendez and knew he didn;t have anything to do with the Hooker thing.  As for MN-6, I received that e-mail from Graves today and got excited!  I would love to see him give it another try and win this time.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 04:01:25 PM PST

  •  Beebe vetoes again... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, bythesea, itskevin, GloFish, MichaelNY

    Last week he vetoed a bill that would have banned abortions after 20 weeks.  Then the legislature overrode the veto easily and though, "Hey, that was fun, let's pass a more extreme bill."  So they did, a ban of abortion after 12 weeks, which Beebe banned.

    But in all seriousness, Beebe has done some very progressive things recently.  Between his veto of this bill, him coming out for abolishing the death penalty a few months ago, and addressing a gay rights group in Arkansas last year (he did not come out in favor of gay marriage, but he did become the first Arkansas governor to address a gay group).  I'm a little surprised, since all of these positions Beebe has taken would be very unpopular with Arkansas in general.

  •  Obama's making calls (7+ / 0-)

    to individual R senators, apparently, to try to build a "common sense caucus" to tackle sequestration and other budget and deficit issues. This is being reported from the senators themselves, or from their aides. The list includes Coburn, Corker, Portman, and Collins.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    Seems like this could be a way for the president and establishment Republicans to work around McConnell -- which ironically could be a dynamic that McConnell won't actively discourage (due to his upcoming campaign). He can't afford to have his fingerprints, too clearly anyway, on any sort of deal that emerges. Which, contrary to his protestations, doesn't necessarily mean that he's against a deal himself.

    •  Saw that on Rev Al's show today (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 06:36:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd use former Governors... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, LordMike, bythesea, MichaelNY

      They might have a bit more independent streak in them.  But McConnell rules his caucus with an iron fist, so I don't expect this to go anywhere.  They're not going to risk their committee assignments to work with Obama, or risk being primaried for that matter.  

      For this to have had any chance, Pres Obama would have had to use Senate intermediaries to form their own Gang of X without him being publicly involved.  

      If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 06:51:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not so sure (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, bythesea, MichaelNY

        that McConnell is against giving a little. I mean: These guys could probably offer Obama as little as $200-250b from closing loopholes in exchange for big, big cuts to entitlements that will enrage many here (including maybe me). And Obama would probably take that deal.

        This could be the equivalent of Boehner's breaking with the Hastert rule: McConnell turns his cheek as the "centrist caucus" forms and operates, while making antagonistic statements to make it appear that he's against it.

        •  "Big, big cuts" (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          How do you define that? Chained CPI is probably as bad as it gets and personally I think there are plenty things worse than that. Sure, people will complain about "betrayal" but they'll get over it like everything else.

          And it'll be due the numbers in Congress not out of some "obsession" with cutting the deficit. If that was the case they would have done it before 2010. In terms of 2014, Republicans won't be able to attack Democrats as easily as they have over Medicare because this time it will take their votes to pass.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 08:43:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  What about Hoeven? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      He seems amenable on fiscal issues, but his vote is never on the path to 60 votes. Is there a reason for that?

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 08:52:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Latino gains in NC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'd be curious to see which districts in NC gain the most Latino votes in raw numbers.  Big gains in Hudson's or Pittenger's districts could put them back in play with a good GOTV effort, I'd think.

    Based on the newsletters I get from Hudson, he's not going to be able to make the case that he's any kind of moderate.

  •  More DOMA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Wilson, DeFazio and Schrader are all members of the LGBT Equality Caucus in the House but did not sign the brief. Odd.

  •  Not exactly an election-related post... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    But here's a blog post detailing the viewpoint of Mormon progressives: http://boydpetersen.com/...

    It's a bit heavy on the LDS cultural references (and very long), but I highly recommend it to everyone who wants to know how LDS progressives think, and how we justify our beliefs within LDS theology.

    I feel that progressivism is the best way to square my basic politic beliefs with my personal interpretation of my religion, and being a cultural, social, and economic leftist while still a devout Mormon is not strange, in my opinion.

     I feel that social equality (yes, including gay marriage; I see no reason why I shouldn't let members of society do what they want. It's not like a gay couple would want to be married in an LDS temple anyway), economic fairness (I feel that the Book of Mormon has many incredible messages about the evils of economic inequality), and cultural diversity (I just love diversity, especially in my corner of Utah), are important parts of my identity as a Mormon.

    One thing I've got to note is that while my conservative religious brethren really over-estimate and dramatize the amount of mockery, mean-spirited comments, and negative feelings Mormonism gets from the secular left (whom I adore. You guys are awesome), there's still an unfair element of religious bigotry. The secular left sees no problem with making jokes about polygamy (despite the fact that mainstream Mormons haven't done it for over 110 years), "cult" jokes, and other sensitive issues. I'm all for humor that's all in good fun (I seriously wish people would make Jello jokes, Happy Valley jokes, and even gay missionary jokes), but cult and polygamy jokes are offensive and overplayed. I get that you guys mock all religions, but it just seems a bit mean-spirited when directed at Mormons. A lot meaner than Jon Stewart's Mormon references, I would say. Though let me say that yeah, in a lot of cases, we do deserve some mockery.

    In any case, I just wanted to lay out my case for LDS progressivism, and address a concern I had about secular leftism.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:45:29 PM PST

    •  Oh, and in regards to elections... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Anybody know of any Mormon progressives outside of Utah that haven't run, but might try? And I don't mean Harry Reid, as he is an unacceptable (well, acceptable compared to a GOPer, but unacceptable if there's a better choice) right-winger in my opinion.

      Any good, solid Mormon leftists with a chance?

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 08:47:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Tom Udall is LDS (0+ / 0-)

        I have no idea what appeal he might have outside of New Mexico, but he comes from a good political family.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 12:57:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Harry Reid (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        Is not right-win under any definition of it. He's not even right-wing in the Democratic Party.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 01:15:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed, he certainly is not right-wing (0+ / 0-)

          My big complaint about him is if he could have done something about the filibuster that he didn't do, but that's not something I am privy to. If he wanted to do something and didn't have the votes, that's not his fault, but it does considerably weaken him.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 01:19:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ah, sorry, I meant right-wing in the sense (0+ / 0-)

            that Harry Reid doesn't challenge Republican ideas as much as he should. He's too willing to compromise or even take old Republican ideas that they've abandoned.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 07:32:06 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Happy Valley? (0+ / 0-)

      I only know that as one of the richest cities in Oregon.  I lived there for a few months.

      I took a comparative religions class from BYU, with a big section on the LDS church.  It didn't seem any more odd to me than any other religion.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 09:36:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Happy Valley (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        is a reference to Utah being the state with the highest (or at least one of the highest) usage of anti-depressants.

        And thank you for being respectful towards the LDS faith. It means a lot to me, and when I hear Lawrence O'Donnell make up shit about it (I don't swear lightly; this is how angry Lawrence makes me), and others make cruel jokes about the church, it makes me loose my temper.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 10:01:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, I've read a lot of anti-Mormon nastiness (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Gygaxian

      in threads on the main part of the site. I have a good friend who's LDS, and I really don't like seeing negative blanket statements about Mormons. Plus, there have been very good Democratic politicians who were LDS members, including some real liberals like Mo Udall.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 12:55:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, in Mo Udall's case (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He was an inactive Mormon, specifically because of LDS cultural racism (blacks couldn't hold the priesthood and etc). He was very friendly with blacks while in the military, and apparently helped change a few attitudes, at least in his unit.

        So if the church had removed the ban earlier (which actually was done in 1969, but we can blame Harold B Lee for blocking it by invoking the long-held idea that major decisions by the church leadership should be unanimous and in this case should be by revelation), he probably would've stayed active and been a good example of a progressive Mormon.

        As it was, he was treated as a fully active Mormon (which directly led to his defeat in the Michigan Dem primary in 1976), even though he was a cultural "Jack" Mormon. I treat him as a progressive cultural Mormon, so my entire comment doesn't even matter, haha.

        There's actually a really good biography of Mo called "Mo: The Life and Times of Morris K. Udall", which I have. I would highly recommend it.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 07:57:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MN-6 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, MichaelNY

    That district is a two-year rental if we somehow manage to defeat Bachmann...that is, unless Republicans nominate an even weaker candidate than Bachmann is.

    Something that Graves might want to focus on in his campaign if he decides to run against Bachmann again is this story about illegal activities that her campaign staff committed her failed 2012 presidential bid. In short, her Iowa state campaign chairman, Ken Sorenson, stole an e-mail list from an evangelical group, and Bachmann allegedly covered it up.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 09:15:43 PM PST

  •  Obama's approval rating begins to tank (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    From POLITICO:

    His approval rating was 46 percent between Feb 29 and March 2, down from 53 percent a week earlier.

    The drop comes after Obama and Congress failed to reach a last-minute deal and automatic sequester cuts kicked in across the government on Friday.

    His disapproval rating also jumped to its highest level since November, hitting 46 percent over the weekend, up from 40 percent a week earlier.

    Gallup surveys roughly 1,500 adults across the nation each day and records the average ratings over three days. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

    Let the hand-wringing begin...

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Mar 04, 2013 at 11:31:14 PM PST

  •  MS Mayoral Candidate Beaten, Burned to death (0+ / 0-)

    Have any of you seen this unbelievable story that has so many overtones of deja vu?

    One of the theories regarding the murder is that the death involved a dispute in a romantic relationship between McMillian and his gay lover, but the family believes the murder was a racially-motivated hate crime.
    Yikes! Those police had better get to the bottom of this.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 01:03:43 AM PST

    •  Followup, in case anyone's reading (0+ / 0-)

      22-year-old Charged With Murdering Miss. Politician

      Authorities in Clarksdale, Mississippi have charged a 22-year-old man with the murder of Marco McMillan, 34, a respected community figure and openly-gay candidate for the Clarksdale Mayor's office.
      According to WPTY, Lawrence Reed's sister claimed Reed didn't know McMillian was gay, and that McMillian may have made sexual advances toward Reed in the car.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Tue Mar 05, 2013 at 10:45:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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