On yesterday's episode of UP WITH CHRIS HAYES there was an explosive segment on a new study that shows how state legislators believe their constituents are more conservative than they actually are. What was most fascinating was how skewed it was in regards to conservative pols whom were especially misinformed about their own constituent views. How far off the mark are the conservative legislators? How about almost half believing their own district is more conservative than the most conservative district in the country!
The authors report this especially stunning distillation of their findings: “Nearly half of sitting conservative officeholders appear to believe that they represent a district that is more conservative on these issues than the most conservative legislative district in the entire country.”{emphasis mine}
As a side note, if you are not watching UP WITH CHRIS HAYES then you are missing out on one of the premier news programs available to you. I highly encourage you give this show a go, you will not be sorry.
Chris had one of the the co-authors of a new study that while not yet published or peer-reviewed has some very intriguing results that could clearly explain some of the crazy bills we see being submitted in state legislatures across the country.
So why do politicians seem convinced that the American people want austerity? A fascinating new working paper published this week by two political science graduate students may offer an answer: Politicians tend to vastly overestimate just how conservative their constituents really are. The paper, co-authored by Christopher Skovron of the University of Michigan and David Broockman of the University of California Berkeley, finds that conservative politicians in particular are terrible at gauging the political views of their constituents. For example, they tend to underestimate support for policies like universal health care and same-sex marriage by as much as 20 percentage points. Liberal politicians underestimate support for those policies, too, but not by nearly as much.
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The paper — which has not been peer-reviewed or published in an academic journal yet — has the potential to explain so much about American politics, about how the contours of the national political dialogue are set and about the behavior and strategic choices of our politicians. For one, it would explain why Americans’ faith in Congress as an institution has dipped to historic lows. It would also explain why the political “center” seems so far out of step with the policy priorities of the median voter. And, perhaps most of all, the findings might offer an explanation for the asymmetric polarization we’ve seen take hold in Washington over the last 30 years or so: Conservatives have gotten much, much more conservative, while liberals have remained just as liberal as they were decades ago.
You can watch the entire segment here:
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In brief, the study found after interviews with thousands of state legislators that their estimation of their own constituent views was wildly off the mark. ALL legislators estimated their constituents as being more conservative than they actually are. Liberal legislators thought their constituents were more conservative by a lesser degree than their conservative brethren whom were wildly off the mark.
Fascinating stuff.