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Pres-by-CD: With results from Monmouth County, we can bring you results for the last two New Jersey districts outstanding, NJ-04 and NJ-06. These results fit the general trend that we've been seeing: the Republican-leaning NJ-04 swung against Obama by about 0.6 percent (to 54.2 percent Romney), while Democratic-leaning NJ-06 swung towards Obama by about 3 percent (to 61.4 percent Obama). The swing in NJ-06 makes sense given how the district is laid out: the less Democratic-leaning Monmouth County portion saw a sharper turnout drop (likely due to Superstorm Sandy), while the more Democratic Middlesex County portion saw a sharp swing towards Obama (about 4 percent), likely due to the sizable Hispanic and Asian populations in that jurisdiction.

In terms of new results, this leaves just the four Nassau County, NY districts left, NY-02 through NY-05. It's likely that they all voted for Obama, though Peter King's NY-02 is somewhat of a question mark. We'll know for certain when we get Nassau's results (...which will happen eventually, we hope!).

There are also a few jurisdictions for which we're getting updates from unofficial results upon which we'd previously relied, LaSalle County, TX and Somerset County, PA. Somerset's results are especially hilarious, which you can see for yourself here. None of the changes swing more than 20 votes in any direction; none of the percentages that we'd previously calculated are affected either, accordingly.

8:49 AM PT: SC-01: It's going to be former Charleston City Councilor Curtis Bostic against ex-Gov. Mark Sanford in the April 2 GOP runoff. On Tuesday night, after all precincts had reported, state Sen. Larry Grooms trailed Bostic by fewer than 500 votes for the second spot, putting him inside the 1 percent margin for an automatic recount. Grooms initially indicated he planned to wait for the recount to take place, but overnight he changed his mind and conceded to Bostic.

Now the question is whether Bostic, who raised comparatively little money but relied on evangelical fervor to give him just enough of an edge, can rally the anti-Sanford forces around him. It seems like a tall order: He only took 13 percent of the vote (versus 37 for Sanford), and he has just two weeks in which to make up the difference. What the also-rans (including Grooms) decide to do will offer one clue. If they endorse Bostic en masse, that might offer him some hope. It certainly wouldn't be unheard of for the runoff to take an unexpected turn, particularly with a figure as polarizing as Sanford leading the way, but Bostic has his work cut out for him.

9:04 AM PT: Special Elections: The SC-01 primary wasn't the only race on tap on Tuesday. It turns out that New Hampshire special election wasn't on Saturday (as we'd originally thought) but instead took place on Tuesday night. Johnny has a brief recap:

NH HD-Hillsborough 9: Bill O'Neil holds the seat for the Democrats, beating Republican Win Hutchinson by a 297-260 vote margin.
More here.

10:19 AM PT: FL-Gov: For the second week in a row, Quinnipiac has released a poll of the same state and the same race as PPP, just one day later. This time it's Florida, only the difference here is that Quinnipiac's numbers are even worse for Republicans than PPP's, whereas last week, the roles were reversed. Here, ex-Gov. Charlie Crist beats the man who succeeded him, Republican Rick Scott, 50-34, while Scott's 2010 opponent, Alex Sink, also has a sizable edge, 45-34. PPP, by contrast, had Crist up 52-40 and Sink ahead 45-40. Either way, life still sucks for Rick Scott.

Interestingly, though, Quinnipiac found almost identical results in a hypothetical GOP primary between Scott and state Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam. Scott's ahead 47-24 in that matchup versus 48-24 in PPP's test. On one level, those numbers might seem heartening for Scott's renomination chances, but Putnam is absolutely unknown, with 80 percent of respondents expressing no opinion of him. That also explains why fares worse than Scott when paired with the two Democrats: He loses 49-30 to Crist and 37-29 to Sink.

Those results are instructive. The well-known Crist performs similarly in either scenario, but Sink's toplines drop from 45 against Scott to 37 against Putnam. That indicates that Sink (about whom 58 percent say they "haven't heard enough" to say whether they like her or not) is the beneficiary of a whole bunch of "Anybody But Scott" sentiment. It's why Democrats should probably hope for a messy Republican primary that Scott nevertheless wins.

10:30 AM PT: Super-annoying: Grooms' campaign is saying that his Facebook post in which he declared his campaign had "ended" should nevertheless "not be interpreted as a concession." What the...?

11:08 AM PT: Florida: PPP's Florida miscellany writeup didn't really have anything that caught my eye, but in the PDF, you'll find Democrats ahead on the generic congressional ballot, 46-43. That inspired me to look back at PPP's final 2012 question (PDF) on the topic, and in late October, Dems also had a 3 point edge, 48-45. So how did PPP do?

Well, it's kind of a loaded question. Republicans actually won the overall House vote in the Sunshine State 51-45, but the district lines are so badly gerrymandered to favor the GOP that you can't really make a reasonable comparison between those numbers and a generic ballot test. To put this in context, Republicans hold 17 Florida House seats versus just 10 for Democrats¬—in an evenly-divided state that Barack Obama won.

Instead, I'd look at it this way: The voter universe that PPP saw in November (with Democrats ahead 3) led to Dems winning all the seats they were "supposed to," plus one "extra" seat that should be viewed as a major bonus, FL-18 (where Patrick Murphy upset Allen West in a district that voted for Romney). Since PPP is still seeing D+3, that ought to be good news for Murphy if it holds for the next couple of years, though that's a huge "if." Conversely, it may not be enough for Democrats to flip other targets, like FL-02 and FL-10, though I think other factors, such as candidate quality and the lack of a presidential race, may play a bigger role.

1:51 PM PT: GA-12: Buried at the end of this item (which discusses an email from Dem Rep. John Barrow to his supporters that raises the possibility he might run for Senate) is a note about Barrow's current district, GA-12. Jim Galloway reports that former state Senate President pro tem Tommie Williams, who received Great Mentioner treatment earlier this year, was in DC earlier this week for recruitment talks with the NRCC. Williams, however, declined to run against Barrow last cycle.


1:56 PM PT: P.S. Sean Sullivan examines the history of the last 11 House runoffs in the Palmetto State, dating back to 1998. Over that period of time, the winner in the first round went on to secure his or her party's nomination seven times, so that offers some hope for Bostic.

1:58 PM PT: DSCC/NRSC: The DSCC outraised the NRSC for the second month in a row, and by a wide margin: $4.3 million to $2.2 million. That brings the Senate Dems to $8.5 million on the year, versus $3.7 million for Republicans. We'll bring you a full party committee fundraising chart in the next Digest.

2:04 PM PT: IL-Gov: It's pretty rare that we'd mention a non-endorsement in these pages, but when a state's senior senator declines to support the re-election campaign of his own governor, that strikes me as a bit newsy. That's exactly what Dick Durbin, the second-ranking Democrat in the Senate, just did at recent reporters' round table, refusing to offer his backing to embattled Gov. Pat Quinn. Durbin did, however, talk up state AG Lisa Madigan, who seems likely to challenge Quinn in the primary—and if you read between the lines, it sounds like he also tried to gently dissuade former White House chief of staff Bill Daley from getting in as well. That would give Madigan a clear shot at Quinn, and polls show she'd house him.

2:08 PM PT: MI-Sen: Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, the Democrats' 2010 nominee for governor, has pretty much taken himself out of the running for the state's newly open Senate seat. Bernero "pegged his interest in the U.S. Senate seat opening in 2014 at 1 or 2" on a scale of 1 to 10, which sounds pretty definitive, plus he's also running for re-election as mayor this year.

2:27 PM PT: WI-01: Democrat Rob Zerban, who lost to Rep. Paul Ryan last year by a 55-43 margin, announced on Wednesday that he's exploring a rematch. Though Zerban didn't receive much love from DC Dems in 2012, he actually performed almost identically to two much more heavily touted candidates in Wisconsin's 7th and 8th Districts. Part of his difficulty, of course, was due to Ryan getting tapped as Mitt Romney's running-mate, which gave Ryan a level of prominence few House candidates ever achieve.

But ultimately, the 1st is a traditionally Republican district, and it reverted to form after Barack Obama narrowly won it in 2008, this time going for Mitt Romney by a 52-47 margin. Those results also show that Ryan, running on his own, was more popular than the presidential ticket. While that's embarrassing for Romney (what else is new?), it also means that Ryan has a pretty decent cushion to fall back on in future election campaigns. And with his celebrity status, he'll always be able to raise tons of money, making any chance of unseating him pretty difficult.

2:38 PM PT: WV-Sen: The National Journal's Sarah Mimms reports that Democrats are talking up a new name for West Virginia's open Senate seat: attorney Nick Preservati. Preservati is an attorney who looks to be in his early 40s; most notably, says Mimms, he comes from a wealthy family that has "long been involved in the coal mining industry," and he also helped Joe Manchin get elected to the Senate in 2010. He's never held office before, so that means there's no voting record to tie him to, plus he could self-fund and hold himself out as being unequivocally pro-coal. Sounds good on paper (for West Virginia), so it makes sense that he's reportedly been talking to the DSCC. Whether a first-timer like Preservati has actual chops on the campaign trail is always a separate question, of course.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 06:00:13 AM PDT

  •  I like the write-in votes from Somerset (0+ / 0-)

    I can see that "Jesus" is one and that "Donald Duck" is another, but I'm having trouble making out the others, the image quality is not very good.

  •  FL-GOV: Crist leads Scott by 16 (8+ / 0-)

    in new Quinnipiac poll,  50-34. Alex Sink also leads 45-34.

    By a 50-40  margin, people say Crist's switch to the Democratic party is a good thing.

    Like PPP, Scott has a big lead over Adam Putnam in a primary, 47-24, but I dont think Putnam is well known.

    Nelson(49-28) and Rubio(48-33) have good favorables, while people really dont like the state legislature(25-52).

    It would be great if a Crist win had some coattails.

    link.

    •  I am not a firm believer in coat tails (6+ / 0-)

      I think a national environment, which raises or lowers the top of the ticket and down ballot candidates is mistaken for top of the ticket candidates raising and lowering their down ticket brethren.

      •  I think that's fair (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, KingofSpades, ArkDem14

        I was expecting a strong top of the ticket in NY in 2010 to help us in the House races, and it didnt happen, obviously.

        But looking at FL, if Crist wins, given that the state legislature is so unpopular(assuming they remain that way), I wonder if we could win back one chamber.

      •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 09:32:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think there can be a state-based wave (5+ / 0-)

        There can be in-state political conditions that cause a local wave, I think, if the top of the ticket is that unpopular.  It's not common, but it certainly happened in Virginia in 2009.  Of course Virginia being isolated, not part of a national general election, helped in that regard.  But I would think under special circumstances the same could happen in a "regular" year.  If such a thing happened, I could imagine it affecting state legislative races but not Congressional races, with voters specifically unhappy at state government.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:19:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's actually pretty close to what I think (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 12:44:12 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Case in point (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, JBraden, WisJohn

            The NJ tax revolt of 1991.  People were so mad at Florio they TP'd the Capitol.  That overriding storm combined with favorable maps (Rosenthal chose the GOP leg maps that year, I think) threw the GOP into a decade-long majority.  Florio had hit rock bottom, but had recovered some in time for 1993, which he lost anyway.  Then some pretty shitty things happened that turned things right again.  Whitman privatized the DMV (which McGreevey restored to state control as the MVC), put pensions on the Wall Street roulette table, caused increasing public deficits, and in the middle of a mini-recession she bought gold leaf for the Capitol dome.  She wasn't all bad, but she did make some pretty bad mistakes.

            "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:15:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  The top of the ticket (0+ / 0-)

        has a role in setting the environment, at least in that state.

    •  Doesn't really happen in Florida (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jj32, DCCyclone, ArkDem14

      Even with some minor limitations on gerrymandering the Florida legislature in a though nut to crack.  Dems had great 2006 and 2008 elections and all we got was a dead cat bounce in the FL legislature, leaving the GOP with huge majorities.  The new FL legislative maps leave us with few pickup opportunities.

    •  The last polls seems confirming (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      that the Republicans have few things to to to save R Scott.

      Good to see the Democrats clearly favored.

      •  We just need to worry about Scott not running (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32

        Or losing the primary.

        •  Fortunately (0+ / 0-)

          P LePage, R Scott and R Snyder are not the kind of men that play for the team and surely are not enough unpopular with the own base to lose in a primary.

          In the case of Open seat (by retirement or by defeat in the primary), the blue team seems also favored. In the case of Florida, the state is more competitive, but C Crist seems strong, at this point I have the feeling that he would be competitive also vs M Rubio.

  •  NH Special Election yesterday (5+ / 0-)

    It was pretty easy to miss, but there was a special election yesterday to replace a Democratic member of the General Court in the Hillsbourough 9th District.  The Democratic nominee, William O'Neill won 53%-47% over the former GOP representative Win Hutchinson.  (In raw votes, it was 297-260)

  •  MI-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    MI Democratic Party chairman Lon Johnson recently mentioned Rep. Dan Kildee (along with Dingell and Peters) as a potential candidate for the senate.  Kildee has not commented on whether he'll consider running for the senate.  

    http://www.mlive.com/...

  •  MI-Gov/MI-sen (6+ / 0-)

    Virg Bernero says he's focused on his re-election campaign for mayor of Lansing and isn't interested in running for governor/senate.  

    http://www.mlive.com/...

  •  totals by county, SC1 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, James Allen

    Beaufort: Sanford 29.73, Bostic 7.25 / Patrick 30.31, Kuhn 9.79, Turner 7.63

    Berkeley: Sanford 35.11, Bostic 15.98 / Grooms 27.56

    Charleston: Sanford 40.84, Bostic 13.05

    Colleton's one precinct: Sanford 92, Bostic 16 / Grooms 57, Turner 25

    Dorchester: Sanford 39.78, Bostic 18.47

    So having two of Bostic's best showings in places where Sanford lagged a little bit is helpful. But Sanford was strong in Charleston County. And three current/former legislators from the County finished 5th/6th/7th

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 09:40:07 AM PDT

    •  OTOH (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      Sanford's worst showing was also where Bostic did the worst.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 09:43:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  mostly because Patrick was the only candidate (0+ / 0-)

        from that county and Beaufort is in the Savannah GA TV market, not the Charleston SC TV market

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:04:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Patrick (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, jncca

          30 percent in his own county (which he reps in the state house) and zero everywhere else suggests that he didn't campaign at all. Still, it was impressive that he did so well among his own constituents. In most areas, state legislators are not that well known.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:38:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  he raised 60K and spent 27K thru 2/27 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701

            so his campaigning may have been confined to the Savannah TV market. But even then, his district is only Hilton Head Island in that county.

            COH totals thru 2/27
            Sanford: 364K
            Bostic: 57K
            Grooms: 208K
            Turner: 99K
            Patrick: 34K
            Kuhn: 131K
            Limehouse: 42K
            Nash: 7K
            McCoy: 42K
            Moffly: 19K
            Larkin: $1126
            Hoffman: 26K

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:50:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Oregon CD Partisan averages (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades

     photo ORCDData2012_zps7a43a1bd.png

    Using the 2006-2012 average, Obama overperformed slightly in the 1st and 3rd while he underperformed slightly in the 2nd and 5th. Between 2008 and 2012 the 4th trended about 1% Dem while the 5th was neutral, making it easier to hold once DeFazio retires. The 2nd trended strongly R, though given how Republican it is already that doesn't really matter.

    •  Clackamas County Republicans... (0+ / 0-)

      Waged a very strong local campaign that seemed to catch the Democratic establishment largely by surprise.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:21:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  not by surprise (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, BeloitDem, ArkDem14

        but I feel like there wasn't as much attention from outside of the county on our side.  The conservatives had millions in timber money pouring in.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:30:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's what I meant (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          The state party wasn't really paying much attention, and the Clackamas County Democrats got swamped.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:50:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Speaking of surprises (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          redrelic17, James Allen, lordpet8

          how about Kurt Schrader, being one of only 6 Democrats to vote against the minimum wage increase, that is widely popular? The only more baffling vote against it was Bill Owens, who also represents a slightly left-leaning district.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:41:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And Bill Owens also represents a poor district (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, lordpet8

            Which makes his vote even more baffling.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:45:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  and since Oregon's is higher (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, jncca

            one would think it would be to our competitive advantage for the federal to rise.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:15:52 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Politicians treat increasing the minimum wage (0+ / 0-)

            like it polls at 50-50, instead of the reality of 80-20%.  So you see Dems to the right of the caucus voting against it like it's an abortion bill or something, like it gives them cover in their moderate districts.  Same goes for a lot of other silly things that politicians have somehow convinced themselves are 50-50 issues.  Don't be surprised to see some Dems vote to replace Medicare with vouchers thinking it makes them more popular in their conservative districts (hint: it won't).

  •  MO-Sen: McCaskill writing book about '12 campaign (7+ / 0-)

    This seems like kind of a weird thing for a sitting Senator to do, but it sounds interesting.  The book will focus on the campaign against Akin and a few nuggets have been released: McCaskill feared running against John Brunner the most, and had all sorts of controversial statements by Akin ready before "legitimate rape".  Wonder if the book will mention how the McCaskill helped ratfuck the GOP primary.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:23:06 AM PDT

  •  My thoughts on WI-SC/WI-Sup races (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    WI-SC: 95% chance of Pat Roggensack win...even though Club for Growth is running a bunch of ads supporting Roggensack (which would suggest that Roggensack is at least slightly vulnerable to challenger Ed Fallone), state supreme court justices in Wisconsin have much stronger incumbency advantages than candidates in other statewide races.

    WI-Sup: 99% chance of Tony Evers win...Don Pridemore, Evers's opponent, is a right-wing extremist who has blacklisted conservative blogger James "Wiggy" Wigderson, who is a right-wing nutcase in his own right. That gives you a general idea of how little chance Pridemore has of winning.

    Both Fallone and Evers have started airing TV ads as well.

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:58:34 AM PDT

    •  You are overestimating Fallone's chances (0+ / 0-)

      Pridemore's too. Evers and Roggensack are both mortal locks.

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:55:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SC-01 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Gygaxian, AUBoy2007, James Allen, gabjoh

    I guess you could say the Grooms [puts on sunglasses] is getting cold feet.   YYYYYEEEEEAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

  •  PPP Polltopia (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Colorado
    Hawaii
    Idaho
    Ohio
    SC-01 special election

    I voted for Hawaii, as the last weeks. Colorado seems also a good option for me. And Idaho (I always tell that every state must have some poll).

    Sad that PPP down the number of polls by week to only one.

    •  Looks like it'll be the special (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, redrelic17, DCCyclone

      Good.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:20:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do you have hope of this race becoming (0+ / 0-)

        competitive?

        The district has a PVI between GA-12 and NC-07, closer to the last.

        •  I don't expect it (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin

          But you never know.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:31:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, some poll is always good (0+ / 0-)

            But still, having better places to choose...

            I must recognize that my hope and my patience is underwater these days. Waiting and waiting some results that never see (begining by the results of Nassau County to end with the Press-by-CD results).

            •  Not when those races are far in the distance (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, James Allen

              Righties are worried about Sanford being the nominee.

              http://www.nationalreview.com/...

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:39:25 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  At this point (0+ / 0-)

                I'm more curious about other results than about SC-01. Some weeks later I would like a poll about this district, but still it can be too early. SC-01 is a massive red district that I see very very difficult to win. And if the things go bad for the Republicans in this race, an early poll only would help them, advising them early about how they need to energize their base.

                A mix of results too delayed (Press by CD), to have not still the PVIs for all the constituencies, polls that never come, missed good chances like the last PPP poll for MI, the unpolled statewide race in Wisconsin, the last poll for HI without D vs R matchs or the last PA and FL polls without a look at the senate race in 2016, plus PPP reducing the number of polls, killed my hope and patience the last weeks.

        •  Well considering that when PPP asked about (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, itskevin, James Allen, jncca

          Mark Sanford in their December poll he was at an atrocious 30/53, I'd have to imagine he's underwater in this district too, though not by that much since it's slightly to the right of the state and contains his base.

          Still, I bet a Colbert-Busch/Sanford match up is Lean R at the very worst for us, especially since I can't imagine conservatives will be thrilled to go vote in a special election for a guy they so obviously loathe.

          •  Leans R at least (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            Sanford just took 20,000 votes to just 14,000 for Colbert Busch. Now, you could argue his primary was competitive and hers wasn't but you would still expect most other Republicans to vote for him anyway. Look at Scott DesJarlais.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:52:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sorry (0+ / 0-)

              16,000 in the Democratic primary.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:53:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  The difference though is that was a presidential (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, James Allen, JBraden

              so those voters were already in the voting booth when they voted for DesJarlais. This special election is the only thing that will be on the ballot, so those Republican voters who voted non-Sanford in the primary would specifically have to come out just to vote for him. The other side of that coin is that the Democratic primary was totally uncompetitive, so we'll have a lot of Dem voters in the general who didn't vote in the Dem primary.

              It wouldn't surprise me at all to see PPP's poll showing something like Colbert-Busch 35, Sanford 39 which with his name rec being likely twice hers if not more probably results in a loss in a special election.

              •  Vitter too (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                abgin

                I get the feeling these southern conservative voters hate Democrats more than they dislike the peccadilloes of their Republican pols. But I agree it could get somewhat competitive.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 12:14:14 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  this (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, JGibson, JBraden

                Assuming Sanford wins the runoff, the group that is likely to be most enthusiastic about this election will be the anybody-but-Sanford bloc. I would not be surprised if enough of those people turn out to put the Dem over the top.

                SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 12:17:14 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Excellent Points (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Stephen Wolf

                One thing to keep in mind is, there is no party registration in SC, so Dems and Indys could vote in the only real primary there was, the GOP one.  

                They could either vote for Sanford because he would be the most likely to beat in the general, or they might vote for one of the others, because they wanted the least-offensive alternative, if the D candidate didn't win.

                The Democratic primary got ZERO attention., so why not at least have a say in the matter?

                The DCCC needs to be doing ground work NOW to target this race.  It is winnable , IMO.  Besides, what have you got to lose?  The Dems HAVE to make a run in GOP strongholds to have any chance of taking control in 2014 or beyond.  Given the gerrymandered advantage the GOP has right now.   This makes for a good trial run.  It will help Sheheen in 2014 too, if he runs for Gov again, which is very likely,

                If you still lose, you can always say the demographics were the cuplprit, which would be the truth.  

                GET BUSY ON WINNING THIS ONE DCCC!!!

    •  I went with Ohio on the off chance that they do 2 (0+ / 0-)

      but I'm sure that SC-01 will win and that seems like a pretty good option too.

  •  Pretty please (6+ / 0-)

    If PPP isn't doing it will somebody genuine take a look at Arkansas? I mean, there is a competitive gubernatorial race to poll. It isn't just Pryor.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:21:41 AM PDT

  •  Charlotte Mayor: Foxx being considered for Cabinet (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    http://www.bloomberg.com/...

    President Barack Obama is considering Charlotte, North Carolina, Mayor Anthony Foxx for secretary of transportation, according to two people familiar with the matter.

    Foxx, 41, has been a proponent of street car and light-rail projects as mayor of the city, where the Democratic National Convention was held last year. He was first elected in 2009 and re-elected in 2011.

    Obama also is considering Deborah Hersman, the head of the National Transportation Safety Board, for the position, according to one of the people, both of whom asked for anonymity because the deliberations haven’t been made public. The president is considering candidates from within the transportation department as well.

    For what it's worth, Charlotte Mayor is up for reelection this year (it's a two year term).  I'd imagine if Foxx is picked it would set off a big battle for the mayorship.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:58:05 AM PDT

  •  Jeb (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, Skaje

    http://www.businessweek.com/...

    After reading that I still don't have a clear grasp of where he stands. This is supposed to be the competent brother, right?

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 11:58:31 AM PDT

  •  Missouri CD Partisan Averages (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, JBraden, lordpet8, bfen, jncca

     photo MissouriCDData2012_zpsf1425f9c.png

    And McCaskill/Akin two-party by district:
    MO   58.4%    41.6%
    1st    86.6%    13.4%
    2nd    53.3%    46.7%
    3rd    50.4%    49.6%
    4th    52.9%    47.1%
    5th    71.0%    29.0%
    6th    54.2%    45.8%
    7th    45.0%    55.0%
    8th    49.2%    50.8%

    And just for laughs, when I estimated it I still found that yes, McCaskill did win even Akin's conservative old 2nd district by 51.8% to 48.2%, while Obama lost it by an esimated 39.9% to 60.1%.

    So I highly doubt we're winning the 8th special election given that it was R+8 compared to the whole state, which itself is fairly conservative federally. However, it looks like Nixon and Carnahan won it in 2008 and even Montee won it in 2006, but it voted straight ticket Republican in 2012 just barely.

  •  Gauging interest in diary about 2013 mayors races (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, jj32, abgin, gabjoh

    An idea I've been throwing around for a little while would be a diary about some of the 2013 mayors races.  There are quite a few big cities that will have competitive mayoral races this year (L.A., NYC, Seattle, Omaha, Cincinnati, Minneapolis, Miami, Tulsa among many others).  Is there any interest here for a diary running down the state of play in big city mayoral races this year?  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 12:40:33 PM PDT

  •  GA-Sen: Barrow opens his door a crack (9+ / 0-)

    peers suspiciously out at Senate race: http://m.ajc.com/...

    "Some have suggested that I run for the United States Senate to replace the retiring Senator Saxby Chambliss, and I would appreciate your thoughts as I give this serious consideration."

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 12:50:51 PM PDT

    •  I'm feeling significant draft (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I'm still skeptical he can get enough AA turnout. Maybe Thurbert Baker for governor instead? Two birds with one stone.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 12:56:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like the imagery you used. (0+ / 0-)

      19, FL-07 (school), MD-07 (home). UCF sophomore, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

      by tqycolumbia on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:10:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd love to give him feedback (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, ehstronghold, WisJohn

      stay in the effing house where we need you!

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:21:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If Republicans nominate a crazy person (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, itskevin, dufffbeer

      I think that Barrow would be the ideal candidate to take this on. Very similar to the scenario that played out in Indiana last year.

      •  Yes but think about it this way (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GloFish, HoosierD42, lordpet8

        Had Donnelly run for reelection he almost certainly would have won thanks to incumbency given how close Mullen kept it last year.

        Do you think someone like Brad Ellsworth or Baron Hill wouln't have similarly defeated Mourdock? I don't see why they wouldn't have.

        Obviously our bench is weaker in Georgia, but we clearly have other people who could run in the scenario that Broun is the nominee without dooming us to lose a house seat. While Barrow is certainly much more popular than generic D in his district, it's a fairly small proportion of the state overall and he's simply going to turn out to be Generic Conservadem should he run statewide. The main difference likely being Barrow's stronger initial fundraising, but that won't matter if Broun is the nominee and that's the only way we're winning here anyway.

        Of course, if we're going to be all defeatist and not do what it takes to flip the house with a working majority this decade, then I'm fine with Barrow running for senate since he is most likely our strongest candidate. His house seat should become winnable in 2022 if we're lucky enough to get a court-drawn map (though Woodall would get screwed over hardcore).

        •  Ellsworth or Hill MAY have won (0+ / 0-)

          Although remember, Donnelly didn't exactly romp in that election, and he won by his margins in northern Indiana. Both Hill and Ellsworth would likely not have had this strength. Also, both Hill and Ellsworth lost in 2010 (with Ellsworth losing statewide, and Hill losing his incumbent district, both by double digits) , which is an indicator they were not as strong of candidates in general, as Donnelly hung on during the Red Wave.

          •  Donnelly had a significantly bluer district though (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn, Skaje, HoosierD42, jncca, James Allen

            It gave Obama 54% of the vote while the 8th was just 47% and the 9th 49%.

            I think he won by a large enough margin of 6% that both Ellsworth and Hill likely would have won too. Their defeats were due to the 2010 wave more than them being weaker relative to Donnelly. Both would have also run stronger in southern Indiana which makes up for not running as strongly in the north. Simply put, we won that election because of Richard Mourdock, and I don't think a credible Dem nominee would have lost.

            •  Agreed on all counts (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, Stephen Wolf

              I think Ellsworth or Hill would have trashed Mourdock by the same margin Donnelly did, plus or minus a couple percent.

              Donnelly simply offered himself up as a credible alternative, and Indiana flocked to him after being horrified by Mourdock.  Really a race where the Republican defeated themself...not to discount the good race that Donnelly ran, just that any other prominent Indiana Democrat could have done that too.

  •  Thoughts on VRA? (0+ / 0-)

    I recently had to think about whether the Voting Rights Act is still needed today for one of my courses.  After thinking for a while, I came to the conclusion that VRA's majority-minority legislative requirements have probably been a contributing factor as to why there are so few minorities that hold Gov and Senate seats.

    These VRA districts are usually so democratic, that an occupant of that seat would have a hard time winning a statewide general election due to the perceived liability they may have for being in D+20 district.  It's the exact reason why FL's democratic bench is seen as weak, we may have 10 democratic members of congress, but a good chunk of them are in high PVI districts, some of which are VRA mandated.

    Perhaps dismantling Section 2 of the VRA wouldn't be such a bad thing (unfortunately, this isn't what the SCOTUS is looking into :/ )

    Thoughts?

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Ryan Dack on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 12:54:23 PM PDT

    •  Section 2 dying would be terrible. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Jacques Kallis, itskevin

      Cause it would greatly reduce the access to any legal recourse or arbitration that civil rights groups would use to remedy a discriminatory voting law or a map that cuts their community to ribbons to dilute Dem voting strength.  

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:02:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I was a bit more broad than I should have been (0+ / 0-)

        There are other stipulations within Section 2 than the Majority-minority requirement, and I feel that the everything else in there regarding legal recourse over election laws are sound.

        My concerns rise from the racial gerrymandering, which Cynthia Tucker of the AJC discusses it more eloquently than I ever could:

        http://blogs.ajc.com/...

        Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Ryan Dack on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 02:23:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  if it isn't the law (no VRA at all) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ryan Dack

      then does much change?  Do we see more egregiously gerrymandered districts to vote(/race) sink them into their own few districts and bury the remainder into white Republican vote sinks?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:24:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd say there would likely be more dummymanders (0+ / 0-)

        If Section 2 of the majority-minority requirement is removed, but you're perhaps right on the whole.  Republicans will continue to create "Race-sinks" if they were control of the process.  

        I wonder how it would play out in states that have independent redistricting commissions though.  I know for a fact that CA-46 would look different if the majority-minority requirement wasn't there, as the commission originally had it looking very different before VRA concerns were raised.

        Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Ryan Dack on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 02:08:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The problem isn't requiring minority districts (3+ / 0-)

      The problem is that there isn't an explicit requirement as well to use the excess minority population after drawing minority districts for coalition districts.

      If you tweaked it to do that, it would solve your critique.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:49:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  By the way (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ryan Dack

      This is called the "ghettoization thesis" and is examined in a round-about way for Hispanic districts and Hispanics here

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:50:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv

      for all the talk about minority-majority districts hobbling statewide minority candidates, it's not like the states with the most minority-minority districts were electing loads of them statewide before the VRA.

      Without those districts, I don't think we'd see a measurable increase in statewide minority office holders.  On the contrary, I simply think we'd see less minorities in office, period.  Heavily-white districts rarely produce minority representatives.  There are some exceptions, but even most of those have strong minority electorates.

      Without Congress as a stepping stone (and if done to state redistricting, without state legislatures as a stepping stone), there's really no way for them to advance aside from mayorships and county-level positions, which cannot be gerrymandered.

      People have instead tried to argue that we should dilute minorities, and spread them around to instead elect moderate/conservative white Democrats, and I could at least see that plan working, but it's not a particularly savory goal for the party that prides itself on respecting minorities, and encouraging diversity.

      In any case, Republicans gerrymander minorities because they can, not because they must.  The loss of Section 2, or any section of the VRA, would be a net negative for the Democratic Party, for minorities, and for anyone who believes in basic fairness and acknowledges the difficulties minorities still face in politics.

  •  Senate fundraising in February (8+ / 0-)

    2-1 Democratic.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:00:26 PM PDT

  •  For those here who don't think Chuck Todd is (6+ / 0-)

    an idiot, here he is getting mocked by Bibi and Obama today at the press conference.

    Bibi is definitely meeker here at today's press conference than he was in 2012 when he thought Obama would lose. He's fawning all over Obama and mentioned sitting down with Palestinians with no preconditions.  What a difference two elections make.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:17:58 PM PDT

    •  Yeah, he actually had to sweat in elections (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, itskevin, askew, DCCyclone

      and is forced to forge a broader coalition in order to keep his seat from collapsing.  Now he has to walk a fine line lest one of the coalition parties pull out.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:21:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Chuck shoulda stuck to numbers (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, jj32, itskevin, Jacques Kallis, askew

      This is not his thing and never was.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:39:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I thought (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn

        All his questions were good questions.

        •  You thought asking Obama why he didn't achieve (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, MetroGnome, jj32

          Israeli/Palestine peace in his first term was a good question?

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 03:22:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Your comment raises an important question... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bfen, NMLib

            ...about what kinds of questions reporters should ask.

            In all fairness to Todd, that was the kind of question ordinary people might ask themselves when thinking about Israel, for those people who think about it at all.  It might be a shallow question, yes, but it's something people not steeped in policy or history might ask anyway, and Todd is arguably doing a service by asking it......and elected officials have an obligation to have answers to questions like these, not necessarily to satisy the questioner but to have something thoughtful to say in reply since voters themselves might care what he says.

            On the other hand, one can argue reporters' questions should always be more thoughtful than that.  After all, you're there with a great opportunity to ask the President of the United States questions, ask ones that make the audience smarter.

            I generally like Todd, as media figures go he's one of the smartest political minds there.  But yeah he says his share of dumb things.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 07:45:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  WI-01 (Paul Ryan Challenger!) (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, RVKU, JGibson, Gygaxian

    Ryan's 2012 challenger, former Kenosha County Board Member and Businessman Rob Zerban formed an exploratory committee to try again in 2014. Zerban gave Ryan his closest race ever for his house seat in 2012, keeping Ryan below 55% last November.

    Not saying Rob's the guy--we do have a half-decent bench in the 1st District, with some great Dems in Racine, Kenosha, and Janesville.

    Romney won the 1st by 4 pts in 2012, and Obama by 3 pts in 2008.

    Thoughts? I think Ryan is beatable with the right Dem. It would tough, obviously: but possible.

    http://www.wispolitics.com/...

    •  Would be REALLY hard to beat Ryan (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, JBraden

      Out of all the big-name Republicans, and for arguments sake I'll list them (my opinion of course):

      -Boehner, Cantor, Ryan, Bachmann, Foxx, McCarthy, Issa

      I think Ryan is more beatable than all but Bachmann.  Still, he's going to have MASSIVE Republican support from the establishment and fundraisers.  To beat Paul Ryan would take a very rich candidate with other variables.  

      Plus, I think Paul Ryan is the type that would retire if there was any threat of losing as opposed to taking the risk.  He'd just end up as a very, very, very wealthy person for the Heritage Foundation or a similar group.

      #ConstructNotObstruct My personal (political) blog is at http://polliticstoday.wordpress.com

      by RVKU on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:57:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Foxx doesn't belong in this category (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RVKU

        Steve King, for example, is worse than her.  But really, she's Tier Two or Tier Three in terms of how well-known she is.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:37:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ryan is beatable with a self-funder (6+ / 0-)

      otherwise it's just going to be a resource sink given how ludicrously well connected Ryan is going to be as Budget Chariman and Mr. Conservative. When PPP recently asked Ryan's favorability in their lastest poll, Ryan was likely well above water in his own district unlike someone like Michele Bachmann.

      It would take someone with several millions of dollars willing to self-fund to that tune for Ryan's many issues to get properly aired and I'd hate to see that money get sucked into the district for a candidate like Zerban when those dollars can go a lot further in other districts, such as CO-06.

    •  Ryan might have peaked (0+ / 0-)

      His budget got a lot more criticism than it did last time from the very centrist pundits who used to laud him, and the GOP itself treated it like a non-event. I think it might have dawned on Republicans that they lost the last election mostly on Ryan's ideas and would rather push fresher faces out there, that's how they've played it so far. Also, his image is pretty atrocious, if Ras is to be believed. In this case, it kind of fits the facts of what's going on--even if it's a politically motivated Rasmussen poll, that tells us something.

      If this is the case, I have to seriously wonder if they'll let him rotate off chairing the Budget Committee next Congress. And if that happens, I would have to imagine Ryan would try to get out while the getting's still good. I'm really torn about the first item, which would probably generate some friction among the megadonor class, but he seems more a liability than an asset to the GOP these days.

    •  Here's what a lot of people (0+ / 0-)

      Need to understand about Ryan and WI-01. This is a district without a major media market, and as many of you know, this is a district where before Zerban he'd built up a massive warchest in part because he faced nominal competition since 1998. So Ryan got by being good with the local press and having lots of money to scare off opponents. So, Zerban's numbers against him are more where he should've been all these years.

      And now, everyone in the district knows about the Ryan budget and he's become a much more partisan figure. But this is a district that still leans slightly right and Ryan's got a lot of money so it would require a herculean effort.

      •  Uh... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BlueSasha

        This district is within Milwaukee's media market, which is a major market.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 03:24:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And Chicago (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv

          Kenosha is between the two markets...

        •  That's technically true (0+ / 0-)

          Bits of Milwaukee are part of the district, but Sensenbrenner and Moore are covered and treated as the Milwaukee Congresspeople. The Milwaukee media doesn't consider Ryan as one of there members and doesn't cover him as such.

          •  Uh... (0+ / 0-)

            That doesn't matter at all. This district is entirely covered by major media markets, and thus have to deal with the problems and cost of major media markets - which is the relevant question for campaigns, especially for non-incumbent (and even more especially for challenger) campaigns.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:26:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I gotcha (0+ / 0-)

              I think we were talking past each other. I wasn't talking about the cost of campaigns, advertising, etc. I was talking about the lack of extensive and critical coverage he receives which is a large part of the reason why he had been able to carve out a moderate, affable image for himself in the campaign.

              •  You're kidding right? (0+ / 0-)

                Nobody watches local media for this kind of stuff, and even if they do its largely supplemented by the critical coverage the national outlets use. And if you watch one, you're watching the other. If you don't watch one, you're likely not watching the other either. The only time when media markets matter, is when it comes to campaign time and the cost of running ads.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Fri Mar 22, 2013 at 12:21:17 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Big waste of focus (0+ / 0-)

      Despite David's revisionism in the post, Zerban sucked up all the attention in WI, to the detriment of the two districts in WI where we have an outside shot.  We have next to zero with Ryan.  

      An open seat, sure, great opportunity.  Against Ryan with the same dude who lost by double digits in a prez year... zilch chance.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 04:43:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ok so (0+ / 0-)

        we have no chance in WI1 (51.6-47.4 MR, Ryan by 11.5), but an outside shot in WI7 (50.9-47.8 MR, Duffy by 12.3) and WI8 (51.3-47.6 MR, Ribble by 12). That last .2-.3% must be make or break.

        If we have no chance to win districts that were within 4% Presidentally, prepare for an eternal House minority

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 05:51:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  "prepare for an eternal House minority" (0+ / 0-)

          Until 2020, yes.

          As for "within 4% Presidentally", that isn't even part of the issue.  The issue is Ryan is personally popular and has money and is a national leader.  All "within 4% Presidentally" districts are not the same.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 06:55:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  We've been over this before (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, wwmiv, NMLib, Gygaxian, redrelic17

        People donate to candidates they want to donate to, to people that inspire them or otherwise strike their fancy.  The same goes for working the phones, and other efforts one can make for a candidate.  It's a complete fallacy to think that had Zerban not run, all or even any significant amount of his support would have just automatically transferred over to Kreitlow and Wall.  Most of Zerban's donations came from outside Wisconsin anyway, it's not like those people would have a vested interest in other Wisconsin races.

        In short, Zerban didn't hurt Kreitlow or Wall.  A national election isn't a zero-sum game; if Democrats abandoned every Likely GOP race, it wouldn't gain them votes in the Lean GOP ones.

        You can argue to people that they should be more discerning in where they choose to donate and volunteer, but you can't make them.

        •  Read what David wrote (0+ / 0-)

          You're looking at the issue backwards.  He asserted Zerban suffered because the other two dudes got more attention!

          Of course you can't force people to spend their money one way or another, but that is where the party comes in.  Any sensible party leader should prioritize WI-01 behing WI-07 and WI-08... regardless of where less sophisticated people send their money.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 06:59:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't see where David said that at all (0+ / 0-)

            He merely compared Zerban's performance to Kreitlow and Wall, and noted that the latter two received more national assistance, which makes Zerban's performance more impressive (or alternatively, Kreitlow's and Wall's more embarrassing).

        •  Skaje is 100% right, his comment a MUST-READ (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, Skaje

          Donors give to whoever they want, either for someone or because they hate their donee's opponent.

          Those Zerban donors were riled up by Ryan.  They were never going to be riled up by Duffy and give to his opponent instead.

          I deal with this personally myself as a donor.  I do make what I communicate to candidates as zero-sum choices in declining money requests.  But I have given money to lost causes for symbolic reasons, such as to Frank Wolf's 2010 opponent simply because it's my district and I wanted to show moral support.  Let the record show I ponied up to my own district's candidate when the odds were long.  Theoretically I could've given that money instead to someone more competitive......but in reality I wouldn't have, I would've kept it and spent it on my family or myself.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 07:40:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  you have to have faith that luck will eventually (0+ / 0-)

        come your way. Lots of incumbents that no one expected to lose did.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 08:27:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Basically only in waves. (0+ / 0-)

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:39:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Oh cool, Zerban is great (0+ / 0-)

      He seems to understand the challenges of facing off against Ryan, and wants to give an honest try anyway.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:58:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fact of the matter is... (0+ / 0-)

      Zerban got a better margin against juggernaut Paul Ryan with comparatively little help, than Pat Kreitlow did against Sean Duffy in a friendlier district with much more support. Stephen is 100% right that we'd need a REALLY big force to take him out, but the winds are moving in the right direction. Namely, Racine county: it used to be a lean GOP-area, but it's gotten a lot friendlier the past two years. Barrett managed to get it about 4 pts bluer in the Recall and we won a senate recall there (Lehman vs. Wanggaard). Obama won it both times, and Tammy too, last time around.

      I think Rob's a great guy, but I've always been intrigued by a potential John Dickert (Mayor of Racine) candidacy. He's got a very moderate track record and demeanour, he's likable, he's got name rec, he's connected, and he's a great Dem.  It would be incredibly tough, but much crazier has happened in the past four years, and frankly, we need shoot high if we're going to take the house in 2014.

      "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

      by BlueSasha on Thu Mar 21, 2013 at 09:55:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I found this fun PPP roundup from 2010. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701, WisJohn, DCCyclone

    Of "Senate Candidate Favorabilities".

    Heedlessly comparing approval and favorability, I think Bennet, Reid, Boxer, Murray, and Murkowski were all actually more unpopular than their opponents, according to this.  Angle/Reid was the only race where both candidates were above 50% in disapproval/unfavorability, although both Miller and Murkowski were too.

    Notably, Bennet, Reid, Boxer, Murray and Murkowski were all incumbents, and all had some degree of their state's lean on their side.

    Here's "Governor Candidate Favorabilities".  Pat Quinn, Mark Dayton, Rick Scott, Dan Malloy, Rick Perry, and Paul LePage all won despite having "better" numbers than their opponents, again comparing the apples and the oranges.  And they too were running with their state's lean on their side, except for LePage (in a split field) and Scott (in a swing state and a Republican year).

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 01:56:21 PM PDT

  •  Final part on Political Geography (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, lordpet8

    and you definitely don't want to miss it:
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    I've mapped out the relative trends between the 2006-2010 and 2008-2012 cycles by county for nearly every state and given you a rough breakdown of the congressional district trends (relative to the state) for states where there was easily obtained data and not too many county and precinct splits (ahem Maryland).

  •  IL-GOV: Greg Hinz of Crain's Chicago Business (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, JDJase

    noted a few weeks ago that a Bill Daley candidacy seemed less likely, because he knows he probably cant win a three way race with Madigan, and he is waiting to see what Madigan will do first.

    Sounds like he is deferring to Madigan, and if she doesnt run(which seems unlikely), only then would he run.

    link

  •  Correction (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, lordpet8

    Curtis Bostic is a former Charleston County Councilor. He lost his seat in 2008, to Vic Rawl

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 02:47:10 PM PDT

    •  Did anyone figure out the partisan composition (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, jncca

      of his city council seat? And no, Vic Rawl losing to Alvin Greene in a statewide primary doesn't make Bostic's loss to him a joke simply because he was unseated by Rawl. Now if his district was Republican leaning that would be another matter.

      •  seems like figuring that out isn't possible (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        for one, they split precincts between county council districts, so there's 4000 more votes for President in the precincts in the Bostic/Rawl district than for County Council (15K to 11K)

        In the precincts in the district, it was 55/43 Obama (1800 votes). But out of 23 precincts, 11 had 100+ more votes for President than County Council, suggesting a split. And Obama won 10 of those 11 precincts. And if you divide the CC votes by President votes, and times the President votes by that percent, and add them up. Closer to 450 vote Obama win. Which is around the totals of the precinct results for Rawl/Bostic (Rawl beat Bostic by around 2 to 1 with absentees as well)

        The formula, for reference, from one precinct

        54 votes for CC / 285 votes for President = 15.93%

        McCain Votes times 15.93, Obama votes times 15.93

        Add up the votes by precinct.

        Also, the communities in the district: one Johns Island precinct, 4 precincts from St. Pauls, 7 from St Andrews and the rest from North Charleston

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 03:20:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I knew the Clintons were closer to the Lundergans (8+ / 0-)

    in Kentucky, but I did not realize that Jerry Lundergan, the former Dem State Party Chair and father of Sec. of State Allison Lundergan Grimes, actually was the one that catered Chelsea Clinton's wedding. I went to the State J-J Dinner in 2006 where Hillary was the speaker. Lundergan catered the meal, and it was actually pretty good for a dinner of that type.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 03:10:12 PM PDT

  •  Term limits bill passes Texas Senate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, emops, James Allen

    http://www.burntorangereport.com/...

    The Texas Senate has approved SJR 13, a constitutional amendment which would allow voters to place term limits on certain statewide officeholders. The bill, passed by a 27-4 margin with four Republicans dissenting in the Senate, would limit statewide officeholders to serve 2 consecutive terms. It exempts judicial offices (the 18 elected members of the Texas Supreme Court and Court of Criminal Appeals). The amendment would allow for nonconsecutive terms and would expire in 2031.
    A similar bill is in committee in the House.  The key difference is HJR 42 has a twelve year limit on statewide offices and applies to the state legislature.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 04:00:54 PM PDT

    •  Of course the dissenters were R (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      The incumbent effect will incubate demographic trends from giving Democrats the majority in the future. If districts have to keep cycling through representatives they'll eventually land on a Democrat. Meanwhile most of the Democrats' seats currently are packed into safe districts (whether via gerrymandering or geography) so it won't really matter who runs there.

      •  Yup, which makes passage surprising. (0+ / 0-)

        Texas Repubs must be confident they can inoculate against demographics in other ways.  Not saying they're right or wrong, but that must be what they think.

        They're probably thinking minorities will continue to have poor turnout, that the GOP can do better with Hispanics there than in other states, that they can keep gerrymandering.

        But I read some months ago that today only 30% of Texas schoolchildren are white.   No way that doesn't eventually catch up to the GOP, even if it takes 20 years.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 07:13:54 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No (0+ / 0-)

        The Senate version does not apply term limits to the legislature, which is the only version voted on so far. It only applies to statewide offices.

        The House version, not yet voted on, also applies to the legislature.

        I agree with the logic of the analysis, but it isn't really appropriate given the context.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 07:20:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  i fucking hate term limits (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, WisJohn

        i've always seen it as a disguised power grab for whoever's proposing it.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 08:29:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'd (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Audrid

          support term limits for the NY State Senate since that body makes the GOP controlled House look like a well oiled machine in comparison.

          But yeah I live in California and term limits haven't worked so well. At least Democrats don't have any shortage of candidates for statewide office since every fucking term limited politician in Sacramento runs for statewide office or if a safe house seat opens up they run for that.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:18:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  WV-Sen, Personally I want Natalie Tennant to be (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin, madmojo

    the nominee and I'm not thrilled about Preservati's coal connections.  But the reality is this is coal country and his connection to Manchin would help him out.  I may not be thrilled about another Manchin but I certainly don't want Capito or whoever candidate the Club For Growth picks to beat her in the primary in the U.S. Senate.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 04:48:36 PM PDT

  •  A polling proposal for Kentucky Senate (5+ / 0-)

    I would like to see a poll of the KY Senate race testing both Grimes and Judd, but simply as a sub-sample to test each candidate in some critical areas, since Jefferson/Fayette are likely to vote for either Dem, while northern KY and the old 5th District will go McConnell.

    The counties I would choose would be to poll Graves, Hopkins, Harlan, Logan, Meade, Boyd, and Breathitt. I pick these counties for different reasons. Hopkins in the Western coalfields, while Harlan and Breathitt are in the Eastern coalfields. Graves has seen a shift to the GOP, as much of the Purchase has. Logan is a traditionally Dem county, while Meade is in the Louisville metro area, and generally votes for the statewide winner. Boyd is on there because it includes Ashland, where the Judds are from, which would give an idea whether she could draw support from here native region.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 05:00:09 PM PDT

  •  DCCC outpaces NRCC (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bythesea, askew

    by a comfortable margin:

    The campaign committee for House Democrats raised $6.3 million in February to beat the $4.9 million raised by the House Republicans' counterpart committee last month.

    The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) haul continued the party's fundraising advantage over the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). In the 2012 election, the DCCC raised $184 million to the NRCC's $155 million.

    Democrats were able to count on the small-donor fundraising network they've built over the past few election cycles to drive their advantage over Republicans. In February, the DCCC raised $2.6 million from small donors, while the NRCC raised less than $900,000 from such donors.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
    •  Does this really matter all that much (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, gabjoh

      in the age of the super pac? I get why it's a lot more beneficial for the campaign itself to raise money since there are coordination issues/ad buy rates they're able to access where they have an advantage over 3rd party groups, but it doesn't seem all that apparent to me that the marginal benefit per dollar spent is any better whether the DCCC or House Majority PAC was doing the spending. Then you factor in the super pacs being able to raise unlimited funds from individuals if they really tried to whereas the party committees have limits and I just don't see these monthly numbers being all that informative.

      •  So far superpacs have been a bust (9+ / 0-)

        At least last year, of the major ones the only effective one was the one that had the most trouble raising money, Priorities USA for Obama.  And they succeeded because they found one great message to hone in on, and made great ads to carry it.

        All the GOP superpacs were a disaster, for all the hundreds of millions they spent.

        The party committees and campaigns still do a much better job at message delivery than superpacs and other independent expenditure groups.  There are exceptions, sure, but I still trust my dollar more with a campaign or party organ than with an indie group.  The only thing the indie group offers is the unlimited donations it can accept.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 07:04:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What about them was a disaster? (0+ / 0-)

          I know they had terrible victory percentages in 2012 but what about them made that happen?

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 07:40:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Really bad ads (5+ / 0-)

            It was striking to me how bad the production values and scripts were.  When I saw an Obama or even a Romney or RNC ad, it was always better than any of the superpac ads I saw.  And Kaine's ads were better than the anti-Kaine superpac ads, which like the anti-Obama superpac ads were ham-handed and over the top, and all the other problems.

            I think this comes from insufficient research and awareness of the electorate.  An entity whose lone task to pay to produce and air ads is operating with limited information.  A campaign or party organ is not, they know much more about the electorate they're chasing.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 07:49:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  One exception to the above...... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, bythesea, itskevin

              Again, Priorities USA was the exception, their ads were amazing.

              Planned Parenthood had a decent ad on women's rights that complemented what OFA was doing, but Planned Parenthood is a limited-issue advocacy group that knows how to sell their particular message, not akin to a fly-by-night all-messaging superpac.

              45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 07:51:03 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  and a really bad choice of goal races (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bythesea, Jacques Kallis, Skaje

              They see not in all the cycle in what races was better to spend. They spend a lot in not winnable races, and they fail spending in winnable races.

              Even worse than the ads was their stragegy about selection of races for spending.

            •  It seems like (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, abgin, jncca

              larger donors had to have some kind of input on choice of races and the messaging (ie. I am going to give you 1m but you need to spend it on Walsh and you need to call Duckworth a socialist) because that is the only way I can explain fairly knowledgeable professional campaign folks getting it as wrong as badly and as often as many of the superpacs did.

              CA-12, (-5.50, -6.77), originally CA-46

              by Jacques Kallis on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 08:30:20 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Very true (0+ / 0-)

              As I live in a swing region of a swing state I was bombarded with ridiculously poor quality and ineffective ads by shadowy right-wing third party groups.  Some of them were laughable and if anything backfired.  

              This was especially true in the Florida Senate race where millions were spent by Connie Mack backers attacking Senator Nelson.  Nelson destroyed Mack by a 55-42 margin.

              •  As (0+ / 0-)

                Jerry Brown showed in 2010, have one very good ad that stands out above the noise could make all the difference.

                The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

                by ehstronghold on Wed Mar 20, 2013 at 10:12:00 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

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