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I'm going to use the results of this poll in a diary during the Social Security Defenders blogathon March 25th thru the 29th. There are 4 major components that hinder or propel GDP growth, Resources, Energy, Productivity and workforce growth. All 4 propelled GDP growth 40 to 80 years ago. Today Resources, Energy and workforce growth are incapable of fueling GDP growth as they did in decades past. Productivity continues to increase but wage growth has been decoupled from productivity since about 1973.

The days of GDP growth of 8%-10%-12% are long gone, easy to find oil and metals fed GDP growth in past decades. Oil is found deeper and isnt the light crude of decades past, crudes are medium and heavy. Resources like Iron ore in the form of hematite, found in shallow formations and of extremely high quality have run out, Hematite mines in the US started to shut down in the early 1970's. Today Taconite is mined from open pit mines a mile deep. Taconite has to crushed before going into a blast furnace, adding another step that wasn't needed when hematite was plentiful.

Our workforce is not growing as it used to, workforce growth was 1.2% in 2012, and the Bureau of Labor and Statistics predicts by 2050, workforce growth will be down to .7%.

But as we approach 20% from Solar and 20% from Wind in 15-18 years, cheap renewables will rewrite electricity prices, and we should see better growth.

Economist Dean Baker will be publishing his diary about productivity vs demographics at 11am on Friday, March 29th.

Poll

What will be the average GDP growth over the next 20 years

0%0 votes
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0%0 votes
14%2 votes
7%1 votes
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42%6 votes
35%5 votes
0%0 votes
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| 14 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (16+ / 0-)

    ...... Social Security blogathon March 25th thru March 29th. #HandsOffmySS FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

    by Roger Fox on Wed Mar 27, 2013 at 07:00:10 AM PDT

  •  Peak Oil is going to screw up a lot of things. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    prishannah

    We are not moving nearly fast enough to decarbonize our economy.  Transportation, energy, none of it.

    Being forced into simpler modes will reduce GDP.

    -7.75 -4.67

    "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

    There are no Christians in foxholes.

    by Odysseus on Wed Mar 27, 2013 at 08:23:58 AM PDT

  •  Where's the negative growth option? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    I would have checked "Mad Max," but things are going to get worse than that.
    With robotics and artificial intelligence, we will have 50% unemployment world wide by mid-century. And the global corporate overlords will never take Nixon's advice and create a guaranteed income.
    Have you seen that proud GE ad with a robot out on a tarmac  doing a final flight inspection on a jetliner? That's your job man! That's your future.

    If you can play on the fiddle
     How's about a British jig and reel?
    Speaking king's English in quotation
     As railhead towns feel the steel mills rust
    Water froze in the generation
    Clear as winter ice
    This is your paradise
    There ain't no need for ya
    There ain't no need for ya
     Go straight to hell, boys
     Go straight to hell, boys

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