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9:54 AM PT: Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso tells us about three legislative special elections coming up on Tuesday night in the Bay State:

Massachusetts HD-12th Essex: This is an open Democratic seat in Peabody (all but one of its wards, about 55-56 percent Obama in 2012). The candidates are Democrat Beverley Griffin Dunne, a school board member, Republican Leah Cole, a nurse, and Independent David Gravel, a member of the city council.

Massachusetts HD-28th Middlesex: Another open Dem seat, this one is in Everett. The candidates are Democrat Wayne Matewsky and two independents, Rosa DiFlorio and Dennis Gianatassi. Normally, a one-party special doesn't have anything interesting going on, but Matewsky and DiFlorio are both members of the city council, so things might be close there?

Missouri HD-157: This is an open Republican seat containing nearly all of Lawrence County in the southwest of the state. The nominees are Democrat Charles Dake, a former one-term state representative, and Republican Mike Moon, who ran in the Republican primary for MO-07 last year (as the tea party favorite! because Billy Long is a damn liberal!) and got 22 percent of the vote.

10:25 AM PT: IA-01: Just a few weeks after first saying he was considering the race, state Sen. Steve Sodders has decided not to seek Rep. Bruce Braley's open House seat. That leaves state Rep. Pat Murphy as the only Democrat currently running, but others are likely to get in.

10:30 AM PT: SD-Sen: Some local South Dakota Democrats are trying to draft U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson to run for the seat that his father, Sen. Tim Johnson, is leaving open next year. (Aaron Blake says that Lincoln County Democratic Party chair Ryan Casey is leading the charge.) The younger Johnson has often been mentioned as a possible successor but has remained mum about running ever since his dad's retirement announcement. Hopefully this draft effort will inspire him to comment.

11:42 AM PT: LA Mayor: In SurveyUSA's first poll of the Los Angeles mayoral runoff, they find City Councilman Eric Garcetti leading City Controller Wendy Greuel by a 47-40 margin. Garcetti leads amongst almost all demographics groups, with women and black voters being the most notable exceptions. Garcetti had a four-point edge in the first round, edging Greuel 33-29.

11:47 AM PT: There are also numbers for the city attorney's race, where Assemblyman Mike Feuer is beating incumbent Carmen Trutanich by a wide 49-31 spread.

12:26 PM PT: IA-03: Wealthy investor Mike Sherzan has exited the race almost as quickly as he entered. Sherzan was one of the first Democratic recruits of the cycle, announcing in February that he would run against Rep. Tom Latham in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District. But now he's dropping out, "due to personal health issues," according to a statement.

However, Democrats are now talking up a new option, former state Sen. Staci Appel, who reportedly met with the DCCC recently. Appel served a single term in the Senate, winning an open seat narrowly in 2006 before losing badly four years later. Appel isn't commenting, though, and has not committed to a bid.

1:32 PM PT: SC-01: Elizabeth Colbert Busch has released an internal poll that confirms some of PPP's numbers from last week and shows her in position to pull off a possible upset. Colbert Busch's survey, from Lake Research, has her leading Republican Mark Sanford 47-44, very similar to the 47-45 edge PPP gave her. However, Lake also puts her up 48-39 over Sanford's runoff opponent, Curtis Bostic, which is quite a different picture from the 43-all tie PPP had.

It's those Bostic numbers which are, in a way, the most interesting to me, because PPP's data made it easy for him to argue he was more electable than the damaged Sanford. But time's run out in any event, since the runoff is on Tuesday. Whoever emerges as the GOP nominee will also start off at a disadvantage, according to ECB's poll, and not just according to the horserace numbers: Lake says she has a favorability rating of 48-24, "better than both Bostic and Sanford" (though their scores are not provided). The big question now is whether the DCCC will enter ahead the May 7 special election, despite this district's deep red hue. We'll be keeping our eyes open.

1:39 PM PT: P.S. Bostic did earn one good last-minute endorsement, from ex-Rep. Henry Brown, Jr., who represented this district for five terms before retiring in 2010. (The man who succeeded Brown, Tim Scott, is now a senator, of course.)

1:55 PM PT (David Jarman): Votes: The VoteView blog (the blog of the professors behind the DW-Nominate vote-aggregation system) has a new post turning last month's House votes on the six different budget packages, turned into handy scatterplots. The charts reveal that votes on the budgets was, unsurprisingly, entirely consistent with members' overall ideological positioning. Votes on the CBC and Progressive Caucus budgets were limited to the Dems' left flank, while votes on the RSC budget were limited to the GOP's right flank. The two establishment Dem budgets got all Dem votes save for the most moderate members, while the Ryan budget got almost all GOPers' votes, except for about a dozen random holdouts from around the Republican spectrum. Maybe the most interesting chart is the caucus of 'no' -- those who didn't vote yes on any of the six budgets: those are, again, heavily concentrated among the most moderate and theoretically most-endangered Dems.

1:56 PM PT: VA-Gov, -Sen: I hadn't heard of any polling out of the University of Mary Washington before (okay, I hadn't heard of the school before, either), but they have a new poll (PDF) of their home state of Virginia, courtesy the much better known Princeton Survey Research. Their gubernatorial numbers match everything we've seen from everyone else so far, with Democrat Terry McAuliffe neck-and-neck with Republican Ken Cuccinelli, sporting a 38-37 edge.

There's also a hypothetical 2014 matchup pitting Sen. Mark Warner against what would probably be his toughest GOP opponent, Gov. Bob McDonnell. Warner is ahead 51-35, fairly similar to the 52-42 PPP found in January. McDonnell, though, appears to harbor presidential ambitions, so a Senate run seems very unlikely.

2:56 PM PT: Can't say I'm loving this move from Colbert Busch's campaign, though: They wiped her Twitter account clean ahead of the general election, making some absurd claim that it would be "easier for supporters to follow her event schedule" this way. But the real reason is that Colbert Busch had tweeted a few jokes about Republicans, and also once said that she is both "pro-choice and in favor of marriage equality." She was going to have to defend those statements anyway, but now she'll also have to defend her decision to delete the tweets, too. Plus, the move only calls more attention to her positions, so I have to ask, why on earth did her staff advise her to make this move? Oy.

On a more positive note, one thing I'd previously been unaware of is that Colbert Busch secured the endorsement of South Carolina's Working Families Party late last month. South Carolina is actually one of the few states that permits fusion voting, which is why the labor-backed WFP has expanded there. It also means that Colbert Busch will appear on two ballot lines in the general election, both for the Democratic Party and the Working Families Party. And while the WFP is not well-known in the Palmetto State, it does offer Republicans unwilling to pull the lever for a Democratic candidate an alternative option for supporting Colbert Busch.

3:02 PM PT: AZ-Gov: As other Arizona Democrats still weigh their options, former Arizona Board of Regents President Fred DuVal keeps moving forward with his gubernatorial ambitions. He just announced an endorsement from veteran Rep. Ed Pastor, which comes just a few weeks after three former members of Congress did the same.

3:09 PM PT: WATN?: Well, this is nice to see for once. New Mexico's former Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman, who retired last year, isn't selling out on K Street. Instead, he's returning to Stanford Law School as a fellow at their "Energy Policy and Finance" center, to develop and promote renewable energy policies. It's not clear whether this is a full-time gig, but at least it's on the side of the good guys.

3:31 PM PT: PA-Gov: God is this ever blarghy. Short version: Rachel Magnuson, chief of staff to Rep. Allyson Schwartz sent an email to consultant Mark Nevins, a spokesman for state Treasurer Rob McCord accusing him of making "unspecified negative" remarks about Schwartz, copying several top officials at the DCCC and threatening Nevins' business. ("[I]t makes it next to impossible when good friends at the DCCC and others ask for recommendations for vendors to not be open with your comments regarding Congresswoman Schwartz.")

Schwartz and McCord are, of course, possible Democratic gubernatorial primary opponents, and while Schwartz appears further along in her efforts and seems to be the favorite of the DGA, McCord's camp is trying to tar her as too liberal for Pennsylvania, a theme Nevins hit on in his response to Magnuson. If both of them get in, I suspect this is going to be one really annoying primary.

3:50 PM PT: DOMA/SSM: Here's an interesting chart from the Wall Street Journal that compiles the views on same-sex marriage of all 120 members of Congress who were in office when the Defense of Marriage Act came up for a vote in 1996 (though 15 have "unknown" positions). The most notable category consists of those who voted in favor of DOMA but now support marriage equality. There are 29 such lawmakers in total, with 27 of them Democrats, split evenly between the House (13) and Senate (14). Only two Republicans fall into this category: Rep. Ileana Ros Lehtinen, whose South Florida district has a large gay population, and Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, whose recent conversion on account of his son's sexual orientation made big news.

3:53 PM PT: KY-06: Businessman Joe Palumbo, the son of longtime state Rep. Ruth Ann Palumbo, says he's considering a run against freshman GOP Rep. Andy Barr but likely won't decide until summer. A number of other Democrats are looking at the race as well, but no one has officially taken the plunge yet.

4:28 PM PT: 1Q Fundraising:

With the end of the quarter now past us, the first set of fundraising numbers for the 2013-14 cycle is trickling in. Here are a few tallies from some actual and potential Senate candidates:

CO-Sen: Sen. Mark Udall (D): $1.5 mil raised, $2.5 mil cash-on-hand

IA-Sen: Rep. Bruce Braley (D): $1 mil raised (since Sen. Tom Harkin's retirement announcement on Jan. 26)

LA-Sen: Rep. Bill Cassidy (R): $500K raised (Cassidy has not launched a Senate campaign yet but can transfer House money)

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:00:11 AM PDT

  •  Clearly, David is too busy crushing (9+ / 0-)

    the revolution to bother giving us a real diary.

    Wake up, sheeple!

  •  Nice April Fool's Day joke David (8+ / 0-)

    ha ha, super funny. now can we have the diary back please?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:11:08 AM PDT

  •  any of you guys remember a senator from (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    Colorado by the name of Floyd Haskell? I've always wondered why he lost reelection by a 18 point margin. No one loses by that much unless they are completely out of synch ideologically or corrupt/abrasive.

    He also lost to Bill Armstrong, a ROW nut. If I recall, Haskell was in state legislature during the 60s as a republican and switched only recently before running for the senate. So I would have thought he would have had crossover appeal too.

    Also, he defeated a three term incumbent senator and ran something like 14 points ahead of McGovern to win. It's not like Colorado had an aversion to electing dem senators then either. Their other dem senator, Gary Hart, won reelection in the much worse year of 1980.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:19:14 AM PDT

    •  edit: RW (0+ / 0-)

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:25:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't remember him (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        but you made me curious enough to look on teh Google.  Most interesting thing I found was this written by a friend of Haskell's.  Haskell was heavily outspent and did not respond well to attacks, which were focused on his use of government jet that supposedly cost taxpayers $890 per hour.  Haskell's friend's take was that Haskell's heart wasn't in the campaign.  I can't imagine this tells the whole story.  Incumbents don't just lose by 18% for reasons as small as that.  I also saw somewhere else that Carter campaigned for him, which in hindsight was seen as a Lieberman-esque kiss of death.

        http://www.jerrykopel.com/...

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:56:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  after reading that link, I think Armstrong pulled (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          the "elitist" card on Haskell. The fact that Haskell was probably independently wealthy and had come from the Jersey and had gone to Harvard law was maybe ammo against him. Armstrong on the other hand was from more "humble" beginnings as he had grown up in Nebraska, quit college at twenty, and owned a radio station before being elected to the u.s. house.

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:50:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  He actually won (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      his election pretty closely.  From what I can gather, it was a four-way race, and he only got 49% of the vote.  Haskell beat his successor, Gordon Allott, by less than 10,000 votes.

      So it seems to me as though Haskell was never all that popular in CO to begin with.  It may have been that the GOP just needed a good candidate to knock him out.

      •  Also, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        while he did outperform McGovern by 14%, McGovern only got about 34% of the vote in CO, so that's still not that good.

        •  but against an incumbent? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          its rare that incumbents run that many points behind the president these days

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:31:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  true (0+ / 0-)

            was the GOP incumbent just damaged goods or does Nixon have the worst presidential Coattails in history?

            In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

            by lordpet8 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:52:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Well, as I said, (0+ / 0-)

            it was a four-way race.  And one of the other candidates was from the right-wing American Independent Party.  So it seems very possible to me that the Republican vote may have been split.  Who knows how a two-candidate race would've turned out?

            This is all speculation, of course.  But to me, the winning candidate only getting 49 percent in a four-way race says that he may not have been so lucky otherwise.

  •  does Peter Brimelow post on redracinghorses? (0+ / 0-)

    take a look at this link
    http://www.redracinghorses.com/...

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:52:45 AM PDT

  •  "The State" profiles Elizabeth Colbert Busch: (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psychicpanda, itskevin, lordpet8, Gygaxian

    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 07:28:38 AM PDT

  •  NGP VAN has changed their mascot (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, BeloitDem

    In case you don't know, it's basically the software we use to win elections - and they've chosen second-best pony!

    Yes, it is bread we fight for -- but we fight for roses, too! | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 07:31:58 AM PDT

  •  New Virginia poll (7+ / 0-)

    from the University of Mary Washington shows a dead heat for governor, with McAuliffe ahead of Cuccinelli by 38-37%. Statistically that's not much different from other polling, though this is of all adults in the state, not registered or likely voters, so I'm not entirely convinced of its reliability.

    According to this, Gov. McDonnell is still personally popular, but gets skunked in a hypothetical (and unlikely) Senate race against Mark Warner by a 51-35 margin.

    http://us4.campaign-archive1.com/...

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:44:12 AM PDT

  •  Is the commenting system acting up (0+ / 0-)

    for anyone else? When I try to write a comment, it opens in a new window, and I can't see who's rated stuff.

  •  PA-Gov (April Fools edition) (9+ / 0-)

    No real news, but PoliticsPA has some pretty quality April Fools news about the PA Governor's race, including a lead story about Pat Toomey considering a primary challenge that Toomey was apparently in on (there's video):
    http://www.politicspa.com/...

    Other stories include John Hanger celebrating his website's 150th visitor, Allyson Schwartz quietly removing "Abortion Clinic of the Year" from her campaign bio, and a new plan to allocate PA's electoral votes via auction.  

  •  GA-11: Barr hires Fred "Demon Sheep" Davis (8+ / 0-)

    GOP candidate and 2008 Libertarian Presidential nominee Bob Barr has put together quite the all star campaign team.  He has Davis, the genius behind modern classics like Demon Sheep and Debbie Spend-it-now.  He has John Weaver, last seen running John Huntsman's Presidential Campaign.  Should ensure that this is a very fun race, whether or not Barr can win (betting he can't).  If Barr can hire Dick Morris he may be all set for greatness.

     His pollster was also a top advisor to Newt's POTUS campaign, and his campaign manager was big on John Oxendine's gubernatorial race.  I have no idea about the abilities of these two men, but I wouldn't exactly have either of those campaigns featured prominently on my résumé if I were them.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:38:21 AM PDT

  •  Not a special election (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ProgMD, abgin, itskevin, bythesea

    But the Spring General Elections in Wisconsin are tomorrow.

    The good guys are Tony Evers in the Superintendent race and Ed Fallone in the Supreme Court race.

  •  MO-07: Billy Long once said something (10+ / 0-)

    nice about Barack Obama!

    "FEMA called as soon as I got there and said, 'Congressman Long, we're on the way. We'll have boots on the ground in an hour or two,' " he says. "And I said, 'No you won't; they're already here.' "

    What followed, Long says, has been a superb relief effort.

    "The president came in, he was great. [Homeland Security Secretary] Janet Napolitano came in, she's been great," he says. "

    He can be Chris Christie's VP runningmate on a RINO ticket. ;)
  •  WATN: File this under the category of (9+ / 0-)

    "austerity for you and socialism for me!"

    Todd Akin doubled his staff salaries following his loss to capitalize on the essentially free government money. Gary Ackerman also basically did the same thing, but at least he was never adamantly anti-government. Allen West also drastically increased the payout to staff following his defeat.

  •  WI-Gov: Robot announces run against Walker (0+ / 0-)

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 11:49:54 AM PDT

  •  who of the ranking house democrats do you see (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, Gygaxian

    hanging it up this season? Conyers, Slaughter, Levin, Lowey, Levin EBJ and Waxman who were all born before WWII and are possibilities. I might also add Lewis (GA) and McDermott who although are not committee chairman, are senior members on Ways and Means.

    The deposed chairmen (Dingell and Rangel) strike me as the types who would have already retired if they were planning on doing it (and plan to die in office instead) but Rangel might lose renomination anyways.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 11:59:04 AM PDT

  •  LA City Attorney (0+ / 0-)

    I knew Trutanich was toast after his primary showing, but seeing him down 18 was a great way to lighten up my Monday.

    In full disclosure I don't know a lot about Mike Feur, but voting against Trutanich was the highlight of the 2013 ballot.

  •  If Mike Feur wins the City Attorney race (0+ / 0-)

    where do we stand on our 2/3rd majority until a special election can be held?

  •  After careful thought and consideration (12+ / 0-)

    I have decided to become a democratic for the foreseeable future.

    I can no longer support the Republican Party.

    21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Performance. Progressive Democrat.

    by aggou on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 12:38:53 PM PDT

  •  Help me out here (0+ / 0-)

    What's the difference between the Conservatives Party and Labour Party in the UK. Arent the C's socially liberal and economically conservatives? Cause I always felt that if some of them were pols here in the US, they wouldn't be welcomed in the GOP.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 12:54:30 PM PDT

    •  UK (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, jncca, SaoMagnifico

      The Tories are more conservative than Labor across the board, but they're well to the left of the US GOP on most issues. If the GOP kicked out everyone but the northeastern moderates, they'd be in about the same ideological space as the Tories.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:02:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They'd still be to the right of the Tories (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, ArkDem14

        Our political system is that fucked up.

        •  in the developed world (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, SaoMagnifico, trowaman

          I think only Australia comes close to matching us.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:17:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  This subthread exaggerates too much (0+ / 0-)

          There is still a substantial Margaret Thatcher faction in the Tories who are truly conservative the way that term is used in America.  They seldom have electoral or policy success over the long haul, when Thatcher was PM was really about it in the modern era.  But they still exist and have influence within the party.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:07:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  So what are they liberal on? (0+ / 0-)

        and conservative on? I know on healthcare they're liberal, cause UK has a public funded healthcare system. Like would they be considered blue dogs if you put them in the Democratic party, you mention they would be considered Northeast Republicans in the GOP.

        I've wonder sometimes if I was living in the UK, what party I would consider myself.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:46:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You get a mix (0+ / 0-)

      It seems to be mostly an upper-crust/working-class divide, historically speaking, that has translated into the modern culture. In both, you get some socially regressive elements (more of them in the Conservative Party), but on the whole, yes, UK Conservatives tend to be economically center-right to right-wing, while UK Labor is economically center-left to left-wing, and social issues are just not as big -- aside from immigration, where you see the same left/right divide as the United States.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 07:38:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  South Dakota Progressive Democrat for Senate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    Thanks for mentioning the Draft Brendan Johnson for Senate effort. He's the best chance for progressives to win in South Dakota in 2014: https://www.facebook.com/...

  •  Senator Casey finally does the right thing and (20+ / 0-)

    endorses SSM.

    “After much deliberation and after reviewing the legal, public policy and civil-rights questions presented, I support marriage equality for same-sex couples and believe that DOMA should be repealed,” Casey told the Philadelphia Gay News Monday afternoon.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 12:55:30 PM PDT

    •  I hope this isn't an April Fools' joke! (n/t) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, skibum59

      30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

      by The Caped Composer on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:20:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I tripled checked and it isn't a joke. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer, gabjoh, ArkDem14

        I was sure it was because I thought Casey would be one of the last ones to support SSM as he is so backwards on social issues.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:45:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  myself and someone else commented (9+ / 0-)

          recently (last week?) on how in coming years it would be more and more common to be pro marriage equality and anti-choice; to have those issues completely decouple.  Casey is another indication of that.  While we are seeing significant change in peoples views on marriage, we are unfortunately not seeing the same kind of tidal change, or much change at all, on choice.  In particular young and future Republicans will probably more and more be tolerant on marriage and yet hostile to choice.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:49:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's because SSM impacts men whereas (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, James Allen

            abortion is a woman's issue. And women's issues always take a backseat in US politics unfortunately.

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:28:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  well I don't know about that, I mean (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, GloFish, askew

              ask Congressman DesJarlais if abortion impacts men!

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:54:42 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Or because one is based on bigotry (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, lordpet8, AUBoy2007, bfen, skibum59

              and one is based on your view of whether a fetus is a person.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 03:22:41 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  For many it is more about controlling women's (0+ / 0-)

                bodies than it is about any moral issue. Otherwise, they wouldn't be against contraceptives and comprehensive sex ed.

                President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                by askew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:55:11 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Not if they think that it's about keeping people (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  skibum59

                  abstinent.  Not that I'm defending the goal, which I think is stupid, but if you want people to be abstinent you want to increase the negative repercussions of sex, and therefore you're against contraceptives.  That's different from being anti-woman and different from being pro-life, and in my belief is where many social conservatives truly stand.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:58:07 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think it IS anti-woman in a way (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen

                    It's an effort to make a natural activity less safe, especially for the woman, who runs the added risk in unprotected sex of not just contracting an STD, but also of becoming pregnant (which, miracle of life and yadda yadda aside, is a health condition that must be taken extremely seriously and can pose a terminal threat to the woman's life if the pregnancy goes poorly).

                    I agree that it's not deliberately and willfully anti-woman. But it is very much about controlling women's bodies -- and whether that's being done for misogynistic reasons or in the name of some misguided "morality", the effect is the same.

                    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:04:27 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I think you are being way, way too generous with (0+ / 0-)

                    this view. It's not just abstinence only sex ed and banning contraception. It's attacks on women's health groups, being against the HPV vaccine. Being against laws to ensure women make the same salary as men.  The "Pro-life" conservatives are largely against any legislation that would be considered pro-women or women's rights.  

                    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                    by askew on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:16:35 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  even if its about abstinence (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    askew

                    only women are shamed for not being abstinent.  That's hyperbolic, but not by much.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:38:30 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  That's a separate issue, but I agree it's a (0+ / 0-)

                      problem.

                      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                      politicohen.com
                      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                      by jncca on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:56:10 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  That's debatable. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        askew

                        If you choose to treat things as separate issues, then yes, abortion isn't necessarily about controlling women.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 10:16:58 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

            •  also I think abortion is one of the (0+ / 0-)

              biggest issues in American politics.  In what world does it take a backseat?

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 04:29:40 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Sounds about right (0+ / 0-)

            There were few WV Dems running for governor holding similar positions which I really did find odd at first.

            I even have a few friends who are openly gay, grew in a catholic family and end up splitting on the issues. But even most of them still agree on the exceptions for Abortions.

            It may just be that abortion issues can still fall under a "do as I say but not as I do" mantra for conservatives. I mean I really can't see people who oppose gay marriage and then secretly have a shot gun gay wedding (and still oppose Marriage equality after). I mean sure you'll get the typical gay scandals, where a  conservative Republican caught getting a DUI after returning from a gay club strip club. But I'll have to wait and see if hypocrisy ever reaches that level with Gay marriage as it has with abortion.

            In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

            by lordpet8 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 04:01:36 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Figured this'd be the link after reading headline (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:24:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  awesome and he beat Carper too! n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:52:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Im hoping Bil Nelson comes on board (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      he very good on the issues, socially and economically, but he's very very religious.  I think every body here's already know his affiliation with that C Street religious group, "The Family". If I'm correct I think him and Pryor are the only 2 Democrats in the senate, affiliated with that group.

      He's one of my fav senator, but I hope he comes around on the issue. At least he believes in civil unions (I think).

      No American should be treated as 2nd class citizen no matter what you are. I look at this from a civil right perspective not a religious one.
       

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 03:13:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IA-SEN: Braley raises $1 million (10+ / 0-)

    Looks like a good start for Braley.

    link.

    Good numbers for Mark Udall as well. 1.5 million in the quarter, 2.5 million on hand.

    Rep Bill Cassidy(R-LA) also raised 500k in the first quarter for his expected challenge of Landrieu.  

    •  That's a big haul in a short time for Braley (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, DCCyclone

      Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:04:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, it's eye-popping (3+ / 0-)

        Very encouraging, makes it that much easier to clear the field for the primary, and possibly scare off some Rs.

        In all seriousness, the excitement people have about Braley vs. King is very possibly misplaced, in that while Braley would handle King, I really think he'd beat anyone else but Latham by even more.  King at least understands federal elections, his last one was competitive, and in spite of his insane and savage ideology he has some instincts that arguably are better than those of some of the other people who are getting mentioned.

        Also FWIW, I won't be surprised if King doesn't run, and the GOP is left scrambling to get someone to run.  Kim Reynolds is not going to beat Braley, I think neither can Northey except in an anti-Democratic wave that is hard to imagine since we don't have one-party rule for voters to rebel against.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:12:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Braley isn't going to fill Harkin's shoes (0+ / 0-)

          Braley is a much more cautious Democrat (outside of asking Scott Walker a few tough questions, his House career isn't all that memorable) than Harkin is, but he's got a lot of political skill.

          You'd figure that both Democrats and Republicans would have "upper first-tier" candidates in an open-seat Senate race in a swing state like Iowa, but Republicans are probably going to be left with at best a "lower first-tier" candidate (Steve King is one example of that; he has more political skill than most people think he has, but he is a right-wing extremist) if not a "second-tier" candidate or even worse. Tom Latham would be the IA GOP's "upper first-tier" candidate, but he's already said that he's not running for Senate, whereas IA Dems were fortunate to get their "upper first-tier" candidate to run for Senate.

          Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

          by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:01:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It's less certain that Cassidy will (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, KingofSpades, bumiputera

      run now. The grapevine in the media seems to be that a Cassidy run has become much less likely over the last half year.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:55:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why, is he dialing down rather than up? (0+ / 0-)

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:50:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  In a word, yes. (0+ / 0-)

          At least in the eyes of some observers.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:53:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  James_Nola on RRH (GOPVoter from SSP) (0+ / 0-)

        said he's all but in, and he's from Louisiana.  So we'll see who is right.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:58:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Now John Fleming is all but in (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          and Chas Roemer and Jeff Landry are both in. I have a diary I need to do on the subject, so I'll save it for there.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:52:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I meant to say (0+ / 0-)

            Chas Roemer and Jeff Landry are both seriously considering getting in.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:52:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Iowa 03 - Staci Appel may try (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat

    I'm not sure how extensive the vetting was at the time, but former state Sen. Staci Appel, under consideration for a Congressional run according to the diary, was one of Russ Feingold's "Progressive Patriot" endorsements, when she ran for that state senate seat in the 2008 election.  

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:11:43 PM PDT

    •  Sounds like a terrible candidate to try to run (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      if we want to beat someone as entrenched as Latham. I sadly don't see how we take back this seat against him after he utterly destroyed Boswell, but Sherzan seems like he'd be a much better candidate simply due to money. Latham outspent Boswell by between 2-3 to 1 and is very well connected on the hill, so hopefully Sherzan would self fund as well as run as a moderate, but even then this is a tough climb.

      Hopefully Latham runs for senate in 2016, loses, and we pick up the seat then. Otherwise, I think he's certainly entered the same category as other members like Frank LoBiondo who are basically party line conservatives holding down a Tilt D swing seat with ease.

      •  he already was. (0+ / 0-)

        He's just got a new district.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:19:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Sherzan is a bad fit for IA-3 (0+ / 0-)

        I'm guessing he's a standard-issue DCCC candidate who holds similar views to Steve Israel...those type of candidates are a horrible fit for IA-3.

        Remember what happened to Matt Goetten when he tried to run in IL-13, which is politically similar to IA-3? He lost the primary to true progressive David Gill.

        Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:26:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  that's a bad comparison (5+ / 0-)

          Gill lost the general election.  Had Goetten been the nominee he may have won the general.   Being a good fit for a primary does not make one a good fit for a general election.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:29:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Goetten lost because he was a bad (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, bumiputera

            campaigner and lacked charisma. I don't think he would have done as well as Gill did in the general.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:56:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I emphatically disagree with your second sentence (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              this was in essence a Democratic district; Dems downstate just do much better on average than Obama did.

              Had Goetten won the primary, there wouldn't have been much oxygen for center left independent Jon Hartman who ended up taking 7% and costing Gill the race. Davis only took 46.6% of the total vote, only 3% more than Bill Enyart's opponent did, so this district clearly wasn't all that open to a conservative Republican nominee like the 12th wasn't. The only reason we lost it was because of the split vote as the majority of Hartman voters almost certainly would have preferred Gill over Davis like they did for the 2006 and 2010 Democratic statewide nominees.

              Gill won the primary due to name recognition and the lack of any outside support for Goetten, nothing more.

          •  I agree with your broader point BUT... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, bumiputera, Christopher Walker

            ...I think it's misplaced to assume Goetten would've outperformed Gill in the general.  What made establishment Dems shun Gill was that they didn't think he was capable of being competitive in the general.  It's not like they thought Gill would be a tossup and Goetten a likely winner......they were expecting only even odds with Goetten but Gill to get dominated.  Gill was a pleasant surprise, ran a great campaign, and very possibly got no worse a November result than Goetten would've had.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:14:30 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  IL-13 is not similar at all to IA-03 (5+ / 0-)

          For one it has a huge contingent of conservadems which Iowa in general does not have, second it doesn't have one city dominating the district, third it doesn't have a perennial candidate running in the primary, and four has a very strong incumbent which the 13th didn't quite have.

          There's nothing to suggest that Sherzan would have been a bad fit for either the primary or the general electorate had he stayed in the race. His money alone would have all but ensured a primary win against perennial candidates.

      •  IA3 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, DCCyclone

        I think it would take a wave to beat Latham. Dems might get one in 2016 if Hillary runs and looks unbeatable.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:29:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  well LoBiondo is more moderate than Latham (0+ / 0-)

        and I know nothing about Sherzan. I'm from the area and there was a Sherzan at my high school, but I'm not sure if they're related. I would prefer running someone who already has been elected to something though. All the county offices in Polk County (DA, Sheriff, Recorder, Auditor, Treasurer) which is about half the district.

        But the problem is the other half of the district where Latham will likely be hitting 60 percent. Looking at old CD maps, this is basically the descendant of the old IA 7 represented by Ben Jensen and then Bill Scherle with Des Moines added to it.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:48:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Feingold-type Democrat would be great for IA-3 (0+ / 0-)

      If I'm not mistaken, President Obama recruited DLCer Mike Sherzan to run for IA-3.

      IA-3 is not a district where we should run a fiscally-moderate Democrat...that's the kind of district where we should run a rural populist-type as our nominee. Given that Appel is probably politically similar to Russ Feingold, Appel would probably fit the rural populist mold well.

      Give 'em hell, Staci! Stick it to Obama and Sherzan!

      Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:23:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mike Sherzan (7+ / 0-)

        Do you have any evidence that Sherzan was associated with the DLC at any point? I see no reason to associate him with the DLC. I don't see why we should view President Obama recruiting candidates for House races to be a bad thing. I think it's great that he's getting involved and trying to help us recruit candidates to try and win the types of districts we have to win to take back the House.

        Furthermore, I see no reason to believe that Sherzan is a "fiscally-moderate Democrat." In fact, he seems to have embodied the very Democrat you're lobbying for - a "rural populist." According to his comments with the National Journal:

        "This guy's 20 years into that position; most people can't tell you what he stands for," Sherzan said in a phone interview Monday, shortly after announcing his candidacy. Sherzan made clear what his campaign themes will be -- bolstering middle class wages and protecting the social safety net. "The middle class and what's going on with jobs and the economy are very much going to be in the forefront," he said. "That's the reason I'm a Democrat."
        Appel, on the other hand, hasn't demonstrated a reason to be confident in the chance of her being elected to this seat against Latham. Politics is the art of the possible, and we shouldn't throw wholly electable candidates under the bus just because they're not a progressive's progressive. That's the mentality of a tea partier, and we can't adopt that philosophy if we want to have any chance of winning back the House. The party that holds the center holds the levers of power, and we're not going to get anywhere going on purity purges. I'm disappointed that Sherzan can't run after all, but we need to be very mindful about who we run for this seat and not nominate an unelectable candidate.

        The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 03:04:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Appel was a bad candidate (0+ / 0-)

      she lost to a complete nutjob by a 59-41 margin

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:40:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SC-1: Colbert Busch up 3 in internal (12+ / 0-)

    Colbert Busch 47
    Sanford 44

    Colbert Busch 48
    Bostic 39

    Poll done by Lake Research

    http://colbertbuschforcongress.com/...

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:25:16 PM PDT

  •  WI-Sup: pro-Pridemore group circulating flyers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, ArkDem14

    ...listing "20 reasons why Christian Parents should get their children out of Wisconsin's government schools"

    The flyers were circulated in the Janesville School District, and Cathy Myers, who is running for a seat on the Janesville School Board, received a copy of the flyer and said this about it:

    The pamphlet being circulated to condemn Janesville educators is not only offensive, it’s fiction. It’s being circulated by people who don’t care about Janesville students; in fact, they are located in Milwaukee, where the charter school program is inferior to the Milwaukee public school system. I wrote about them when they attempted a similar stunt about a year ago. This pamphlet is the work of a very small band of bullies. We all know what we do with bullies. We stand up to them. I’ve been knocking on doors for several weeks now, talking to voters. Janesville teachers need to hear what these citizens have told me – they love their teachers; they are tired of teachers being targeted by hateful groups; they hate that teachers have become a scapegoat for the state and local budget; they believe teachers should be at the table when it comes to the handbook, salary and benefits; they think using public money to pay for private school is wrong. The views projected in the hateful message from run counter to every conversation I have had with Janesville citizens. Chin up! “Trust thyself”, Janesville educators! And thank you for the amazing work you do every day!

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 01:46:31 PM PDT

    •  It's all to do with race (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat

      and religious conservatism, that they try to veil in cheap, lying terms.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:59:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's the Southern Strategy in the Upper Midwest (0+ / 0-)

        Cathy Myers has earned my admiration for standing up to the bigots who want to bankrupt Wisconsin's public education system. Fightin' Bob LaFollette, if he were alive today, would be proud of Cathy, and I hope she wins election to the Janesville School Board.

        Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:47:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  VA-GOV: Maybe I've been a little (5+ / 0-)

    overcritical of Terry McAuliffe.

    I've said we could have done better for a Dem candidate, and well, I think I'm right on that. But I think I've overreacted to his performance in the polls.

    In 2005, Kaine trailed pretty consistently in early polling against AG Jerry Kilgore. In the 11 polls between May and Sept 2005, Kaine led in a grand total of one poll. 38-37 in a MD poll in late July.

    link

    So I guess I should take these early polls with a grain of salt.

    •  Not many people have a firm opinion of either (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, itskevin, jj32

      So not surprisingly there are far too many undecided in every poll to mean much of anything right now.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:30:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Large black population? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jj32, James Allen, bumiputera

      In many elections, especially this far out, they tend to be at 60-20-20 (D-R-undecided) when they end up being 90-10 in the only poll that matters. But I haven't seen the crosstabs...

      Yes, it is bread we fight for -- but we fight for roses, too! | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:34:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mendel Jackson Davis (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades, jncca

    He was the last Dem to hold SC-01. A conservative leaning Dem who moderated his stances over time, Davis retired in 1980 to due to severe back pain. His only close race was when he first ran in the 1971 special election where he narrowly defeated future governor, James B Edwards.

    In Congress, Davis worked to create comprehensive health care for the district and to increase the minimum wage. He was the sponsor of a bill that brought the Yorktown aircraft carrier to Patriot's Point and Davis was a member of the House Leadership Committee that brought about the resignation of President Nixon. Davis displayed a voting pattern typical of a Southern Democrat; he scored a high conservative rating by the American Conservative Union for his first year in office. However, his rating steadily deteriorated through his ten years in office.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    He actually tried to run again for his seat but was defeated in the primary, I wonder if he could have made a comeback had he made it into the general election.

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:03:31 PM PDT

    •  Wow, first elected at age 29 (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, lordpet8, ArkDem14, KingofSpades

      and retired at 39.

      And he probably would have won considering the Dem who defeated him in the primary lost just 48/52 in the general for the open seat.

      Interestingly that year we flipped the 4th district and came within 7 points in the 2nd which has been Republican since 1964. Had the 1st and 2nd flipped South Carolina would have had an all Dem delegation for the first time since that year.

      I'm currently working on gathering the precinct data for the 4 split counties in the district, but I'm pretty sure we narrowly lost the district against the odious Andre Bauer in the 2006 Lt. Gov election, meaning that no one won it since at least before 2006.

  •  rothen berg responds to Daily Kos (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike, abgin, DCCyclone

    http://blogs.rollcall.com/...

    "Maybe that’s why I’m pleased to recommend a piece recently posted on Daily Kos, a liberal website that happily produces serious analysis and useful data, even while it often — too often for my taste — reflects a strong ideological bent."

  •  Rather irritating article on Allyson Schwartz in (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, LordMike, Gygaxian, ArkDem14

    today's Philadelphia Inquirer by Thomas Fitzgerald:
    Headline: Scwartz's baggage worries some" going on and on about her being too liberal. And it repeatedly says she's from Philadelphia when she represents Montgomery County. Negatives are basically the usual, but buried deeeeeeep in the article are very favorable poll results for the Democratic primary:
    (poll done for Emily's List)
    In a 3-way race:
    Schwartz---31 %
    McCord---12 %
    Wolf--- 7 %

    In a 9-way race:
    Schwartz- 18 %
    Sestak--- 15 %
    Nobody else over 5 %

    After the three candidates were featured with brief biographies standings were:
    Schwartz--- 58 %
    McCord--- 14 %
    Wolf--- 8 %

    "They will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip."

    by TofG on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 02:53:35 PM PDT

  •  South Carolina CD partisan averages (2006-2010) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, CF of Aus

     photo SCCDData2012_zps72d91f27.png

    The 7th is clearly our best chance at flipping a district during the regular cycle and I think we might have come really close there last year with a well funded Blue Dog, given how liberal out of stater Gloria Tinibu got 45% the same as Obama and he slightly underperformed. Sadly though none of the districts is really all that competitive, with the 5th being our next best target. Obama clearly underperformed the most in the most Appalachian of the districts, the 3rd, but it was also trending away from us the most.

    Elizabeth Colbert Busch is going to have a very tough time holding the 1st if she wins the special election as it was 5 points to the right of the state, though my estimation method may be overstating that slightly but I just really don't have time for precinct data. It's also not trending our way either, being almost exactly flat relative to the state from 2006 to 2010. The 5th and 7th districts barely trended away, so hopefully they'll be competitive under a wave election or if the state at large keeps trending our way.

  •  WATN (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, ArkDem14, askew

    Caroline Kennedy to be nominated as Ambassador to Japan. assuming she gets confirmed by the summer, there is a possibility I will get to meet her...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 03:17:27 PM PDT

  •  Colbert-Busch (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    One of her tweets (which has since been deleted) said that she supports workers' right to organize.

    I could see either Sanford or Bostic run ads attacking Colbert-Busch by trying to tie her to the anti-Scott Walker protests in Wisconsin a couple of years ago, by showing a shot of thousands of protestors descending upon the Wisconsin State Capitol with a grizzly voice saying, "Elizabeth Colbert-Busch stands with Wisconsin union thugs." That would also be useful if Colbert-Busch's opponent wants Scott Walker to run for President in 2016, as South Carolina is usually the third state to host a Republican presidential nomination contest.

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 03:40:28 PM PDT

  •  SarahPAC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    Sarah Palin talked tough about hatin' consultants at CPAC, but Palin's SuperPAC doled out $4.8 Million to...wait for it...consultants!

    BUSTED!!!

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 03:51:55 PM PDT

    •  tis a good time be a consultant! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat

      not so great to be a Donor to some of these super PACs

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 04:04:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Utah CD Partisan Averages (2006-2012) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Gygaxian, CF of Aus

     photo UTCDData2012_zps4cf2e9ef.png

    About what you'd expect with Obama not really over or underperforming in any of them relative to his statewide margin. Utah Republicans really drew a stupid map unless they were shaking in their boots over Matheson running statewide in 2012, something I highly doubt. The trend wasn't all that helpful either as the 2nd and 4th both trended just very slightly away while the 3rd trended modestly Dem. Matheson definitely chose the right district to run in though.

    •  Utah Republicans were overconfident (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      And thought that by adding a chunk of ultra-conservative (even by Utah standards) Utah County, Matheson would lose to any Republican. They thought the same thing the last time they redistricted him. And in ten more years, they will likely think exactly the same thing.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:58:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-Gov, The comments McCord's spokesman was (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    making were about how Schwartz funded both Kathy Bookvar in the 8th and Lois Murphy's races in 2004 and 2006 in the 6th districts as examples that Schwartz's brand can't win.  But Bookvar's husband was assigned to the Mumia case as his public defender at the time and white people in the Philly suburbs have still have pretty tense feelings about that case.  Also, Lois Murphy has come the closest in both 2004 and 2006 to unseating Jim Gerlach:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    McCord's people shouldn't have made those types of comments but Schwartz's team could've handled them better.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 04:16:16 PM PDT

  •  Interesting about that DOMA vote (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ArkDem14, SaoMagnifico, bumiputera

    Ron Wyden opposed it, actually being the first US Senator to support marriage equality.

    Earl Blumenauer, who replaced him in the house, voted for DOMA.  Peter DeFazio voted against DOMA.  DeFazio must really be a skilled campaigner to survive as he has, and in fact he usually racks up big victories, in such a marginal district.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 04:33:48 PM PDT

  •  KY-Sen: I find this wholly repugnant. (6+ / 0-)
    In a story published Monday in The Daily Beast, Jonathan Miller wrote that the "most egregious disinformation" about Judd and her would-be candidacy "came from entirely anonymous sources" and helped create an unfavorable narrative. Before she announced last week that she will not run in 2014, reports suggested that Judd told a group of supporters at a private dinner, “I have been raped twice, so I think I can handle Mitch McConnell.” Miller, who attended that dinner, said he "never heard her say anything remotely like that."
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
    •  I hadn't even heard about that before reading this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      If it's true that somebody made it up, that's awful and not funny. But it was a closed fundraiser, this didn't really make a lot of news to begin with, and right now it's basically a former Judd adviser's word against, I don't know, that story Howard Fineman wrote (which seemed to be quite favorable to Judd).

      It kind of seems like Miller is just whining because, in Kentucky parlance, he backed the wrong horse (or, I guess, a horse that didn't even end up in the race).

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 07:33:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The line was harmless trash talk if true... (0+ / 0-)

      ...and I agree wrong to spread at all if not true.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:22:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The KY-Sen race has gotten nasty... (0+ / 0-)

      ...and no Democratic candidate has actually entered the race yet. McConnell's only opponent for the time being is a Tea Party businessman who is running in the Republican primary against McConnell.

      Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 11:25:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  SC-01: GOP presidential primaries... (4+ / 0-)

    Under the current lines, SC-01 was the only district in SC to vote for Mitt Romney in 2012 and John McCain in 2000.  In 2008, McCain won SC-01 by nearly twenty points while only winning the state by three.

    That suggests to me 1) SC-01 is much more moderate than the rest of the state, and 2) it has significantly less southern ancestry than the rest of the state.  

    The first may be a good thing for Colbert-Busch, while the second may not.  Abortion and gay marriage are not big issues in the district, so ECB will not have to spend much time defending her positions on those issues.  The bad news for ECB - there are very few Republicans in this district willing to cross party lines and vote Democratic.  Contrast this with the Sand Hills region of SC: Democrats almost always do better in state and local races in the Sand Hills; coincidentally, this was also Bush/Huckabee/Gingrich's best part of the state in GOP primaries.

    •  I don't think that's as big a deal in the special (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      election as it would be for her likelihood of holding it in 2014, when higher turnout and in all likelihood a more credible Republican candidate would probably flush her out pretty easily.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 05:28:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The only reason (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        I think the general doesn't spell doom for ECB if she wins the special is the lack of talent on the Republican side... I mean look at the fourteen losers who ran against Sanford.  Other than them, there are a few state Senators that would be plausible candidates, the most prominent of which is tea party darling Tom Davis, the most conservative SC State Senator who would not be a shoo-in against a strong Democrat.

    •  I don't necessarily think it suggests a much more (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      moderate district, just that it has far fewer conservadems. I know that the state doesn't have official party registration, but there are still plenty of voters for whom it might make sense to vote in the Democratic primary locally, especially further away from the coast.

      When you don't have conservadems who voted for Hillary Clinton and then McCain in the general, you get a lot of voters who voted for the more moderate candidate in the Republican primary. That's why the more moderate candidates like Romney or McCain do worse upstate; the most moderate Republican general electorate voters aren't voting in the Republican primary.

      To add data to that though, if you read upthread I gave the 2006-2010 averages by district and the 1st is only barely more Republican friendly than the upstate districts despite Obama holding up much better there, precisely because there are few conservadems. That being said, I don't think it's good politics for ECB to be pro-choice and in favor of gay marriage in this district, except that it might not hurt as much since it's a special, but on the other hand the only reason she really has a shot here is because Sanford imploded over infidelity.

    •  I think that's due to (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda, LordMike, skibum59

      Hilton Head and Charleston, neither of which are culturally that southern, especially the former.  Both have a lot of yankee transplants who make up a good amount of the GOP primary electorate.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:03:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  New Jersey CD Partisan averages (2005-2012) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ArkDem14, gabjoh

     photo NJCDData2012_zps0e7f0b3f.png

    It's just obscene that Scott Garrett didn't receive a vigorous challenge last year given how Obama underperformed in the 5th and it's essentially an even district, yet Garrett is easily the most conservative Republican in the northeast. I bet he probably would have come very close to losing if not losing outright had one of our stronger candidates run and there's zero reason to give him a free pass again next year.

    It's also ridiculous that LoBiondo cruises ever year in a seat that's just 3 points to the right of the state on average (Obama again underperformed). We can't be ceding these sorts of seats by default if we want to have any shot at a majority, let alone a working one. Even if we're unlikely to beat someone so entrenched, we should still be giving them hell every two years so that they'll have just that much more incentive to retire.

    Obama didn't really over or underperform in Runyan's district though relative to his statewide margin, so that district will no doubt remain rather difficult to pick up given that it's relatively Republican leaning already and Sandy seems to have inflated Obama's margin over Romney.

    •  Interestingly (0+ / 0-)

      our candidate against LoBiondo in 2012 did the best of any Dem candidate against LoBiondo ever.  There's too much liking of incumbents here, to a fault even.  As for Garrett and the 5th, I think we could do it.  If any part of that district was hit by the storm, it would have been the bluer parts of of Bergen County.  How did Obama underperform in the 2nd and 5th?  He did about the same as he did in 2008 (slightly better in both actually).

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:01:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah I was rather surprised about that (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        our token nominee did even better than the token nominee did in 2006 and 2008 despite the district generally being the same and LoBiondo if anything being less entrenched. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he's someone with a glass jaw, but regardless it's just deplorable that he gets by every year without a vigorous challenge in what is a D-leaning district, at least downballot. I don't disagree with an analysis that suggests that he's unbeatable, but that shouldn't be with more than 55% of the vote every cycle. Same with Latham and LaTourette. These guys aren't Jacbom Javits-esque moderates for cryin' out loud, they're pretty much party line conservatives.

        •  I dunno if you can compare Latham or LaTourette. (0+ / 0-)

          LaTourette is gone now, and you can't say Latham was unchallenged. Say what you will about Boswell's campaigning, but I don't think you can say running against the person who is arguably the incumbent is not challenging(IA-03 is more of the old IA-03 than the old IA-04 IINM). Latham should not be underestimated, and I am glad we aren't running against him in the senate seat.

          That said, LoBiondo is also a strong incumbent, but he has never defeated someone who could be considered the incumbent.

          Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

          by R30A on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 06:41:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I didn't say they're the exact same (0+ / 0-)

            just that they're in the same category of someone else who is a party line conservative in a swing district, yet wins relatively easily when thoroughly challenged and in a blowout when barely contested. Obviously Latham wasn't uncontested,  but he doesn't look like an especially appealing target going forward. Basically it isn't like these guys are Jacob Javits, who was a bona fide moderate (while representing a blue state) or especially the converse of a Jim Matheson (a liberal Republican representing a Dem district).

  •  IA-Sen, Way to go Bruce! Braley's candidacy I'm (0+ / 0-)

    pretty excited about as well as Allyson Schwartz who is running for Governor in Pennsylvania.  I will also be excited when Congressman Gary Peters officially declares his candidacy for Carl Levin's old seat.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 05:44:08 PM PDT

  •  Arkansas now has Voter ID! (4+ / 0-)

    For all those who believe that Republicans are the same people as Conservative Democrats.

    http://talkbusiness.net/...

  •  2013 NJ & VA GOV county predictions (0+ / 0-)

    I know it's a bit early.  But I'm bored so what the hell.

    Two big questions...

    1) What counties WON'T Christie win in NJ.  The consensus here seems to be that Christie will get somewhere between 55-60% of the vote... but that could move either way depending on how things unfold.  It looks like Christie will win ever county except the two near Newark and possibly Camden and Mercer... IIRC Christie's budget cuts have not been too kind to Camden and Trentin.  But assuming a roughly ~8 to 10 point shift towards Republicans from 2009, that would put both counties in play.

    2) How will the battleground map change from 2012 Virginia to 2013 Virginia... T-Mac won't be able to turn out as many minorities so he'll have to win over suburban whites that Obama did not win.  Fairfax, Loudon, Henrico, and VA Beach are where T-Mac will find these voters.  Winning Chesterfield is a long shot and Prince William will be tough because most Dem strength there comes from Hispanic and Black populations.  SW VA is out of reach for most Dems - definitely out of reach for T-Mac, so I doubt he'll win any counties there.  He should try to win Montgomery (VA Tech) but even Obama lost it in 2012.

    •  most D county in the state (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      psychicpanda

      is Hudson (Jersey City) followed by Essex (Newark). those two should vote for Buono. currently, the next-bluest counties, Mercer (Trenton) and Camden (Camden) are probably Lean D or tossup. if Buono improves her current position, which she should (since NJ Dems traditionally improve at least somewhat as the election nears), she can probably pick up Passaic (Paterson), Union (Elizabeth) and perhaps Gloucester (Millville/Bridgeton). that would give her all the Corzine counties except Bergen (NYC suburbs), which I don't expect her to win barring a huge surge. there's a small possibility she could win her home county of Middlesex (Perth Amboy/New Brunswick), which Christie won in 2009, but I think that would only happen if she lost narrowly or won overall.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:49:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She's from Middlesex Co., she represets (0+ / 0-)

        Edison and Metuchen down to East Brunswick, so she may have a home field effect.
        And this is a very blue county.  Christie only very narrowly won it in 2009 because of extremely low Dem turnout.  Obama got 63% here in 2012.  The key is to improve Dem turnout over 2009, despite the odds.  I know the odds are steep, but we have to plow forward and make it clear that being 1.6% over the national unemployment rate is unacceptable.  Fortunately many of the county elections up this year were also up in 2010 so Dems aren't going to re-lose the Bergen Co. Freeholders Board or Cumberland County Board.  Dems may even win Bergen County Exec. as the incumbent has been dogged by corruption and wasted county funds.

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:57:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think it's more likely she wins Middlesex (0+ / 0-)

        than Gloucester as Middlesex is bluer and its her base of operations.

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:59:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  So do you think McAuliffe has a better than 50/50 (0+ / 0-)

      shot or what?

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 08:57:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Minority turnout is the key (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Although Obama's win in '08 and '12 makes Virginia seem like a purplish state with a blue tint - it's not quite that simple.  Obama won because of an amazing organization and sky-high minority turnout.  Minority turnout plummets in mid-term elections - and it plummets even further in odd year elections.  I mean really plummets -- Bob McDonnell won huge in Prince William County which has large Hispanic, Black, and Asian populations, and he won several rural black majority counties including one that was over 60% black.

        Democratic wins in odd-years are actually very hard to pull off.  Going all the way back to 1989, I've read that Douglas Wilder only narrowly won because bad weather in the western part of the state suppressed conservative turnout.  In 2001, Mark Warner won because he had unique appeal to rural white voters, especially in SW VA, that no other Virginia Democrat can replicate.  Kaine's win in 2005 was partly luck - his opponent's social conservatism turned off a lot of suburban white voters.  Kaine's victory is what McAuliffe will need to base his strategy on - but even that may present some problems because McAuliffe will do much worse in Southwestern VA than Kaine.

        I think McAuliffe has a roughly 50/50 shot.  Virginia is trending blue, no doubt about it, but in a low turnout odd year election I think VA reverts back to the red-leaning swingish state it was prior to 2008.

  •  question about Southern California (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psychicpanda

    I like to study a lot of on political history and one thing I've wondered is if it was initially a western branch of the bible belt?

    It seems like the old culture of SoCal (particularly LA County outside of LA proper and Western Orange County) before about 1970 was very midwestern, protestant, middle to working class, conservative etc. I also remember reading a lot of settlers from the border states too (Cong Chet Holifield was from either Kentucky or Arkansas and Bell Gardens used to be a "Little Oklahoma".) The area at the time had a lot of evangelical presence with Bob Shuler (who nearly won election to congress as a prohibitionist in 1942) and Fred Schwarz.

    And from what I read, it wasn't just Southern Baptists. There seemed to be a lot of other non-baptist denominations at the time which shared their intensity like Assemblies of God, Cavalry Chapel, Missouri/Wisconsin Synod, FourSquare, Plymouth Brethren and various other indpendent churches.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 09:53:21 PM PDT

  •  WI-SC/WI-Sup (0+ / 0-)

    Tanya Lohr, who ran against notorious right-wing nutcase Glenn Grothman in a completely unwinnable state senate race last year (getting slightly over 31% of the vote) gave last-minute endorsements to Ed Fallone for the WI-SC race and Tony Evers in the WI-Sup race.

    Her endorsement statement (she has an incorrect link to Tony Evers's campaign website, here's the correct link to Evers's website) goes into great length about Fallone but doesn't go into great length about Evers, which I found to be rather odd since Lohr herself is a public school teacher by profession. The fact that Lohr seemed more enthusiastic about her support for Fallone but not so much about her support for Evers the only reason I'm even mentioning this on here.

    Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 10:19:46 PM PDT

  •  VA-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Would I be mistaken to think any Democrat in Virginia not named Terry McAuliffe would have a 5+ lead in the polls over Ken Cuccinelli? I'm not from Virginia so maybe I'm wrong, but I just think we've this race with McAulliffee, though it doesn't appear we had much of a choice since no else jumped in.

    •  EDIT (0+ / 0-)

      I meant to say, I just think we've blown this race with  McAulliffee.

      (DailyKos needs an edit button)

      •  Paid media phase of VA-Gov hasn't begun yet (0+ / 0-)

        Once radio and TV ads start hitting the airwaves in Virginia, we'll get a true feeling of where the VA-Gov race actually stands.

        Polls don't vote, statistics don't vote, history doesn't vote, yard signs don't vote...PEOPLE VOTE!!!

        by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Apr 01, 2013 at 11:18:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, you would (0+ / 0-)

      The only Democrats with enough name recognition to accomplish that are Tim Kaine and Mark Warner. Any other candidate, like Chap Petersen, Tom Perriello, or whoever, would be in the same position until Labor Day or so, because the low-information and swing voters don't pay attention to races until then.

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