Partisan breakdown of of Washington Post-ABC News poll
conducted March 27-30, 2013
The latest
Washington Post-ABC News poll
finds 57 percent of Americans supporting a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. That's basically where things stood in the
Post-ABC survey from early February, when 55 percent supported a path to citizenship.
But the most interesting aspect of the survey are the partisan breakdowns. It turns out—surprise, surprise—that support for a path to citizenship comes from Democrats and independents. Republicans, meanwhile, are overwhelmingly opposed. As you can see in the numbers in the chart at the top of this post, Democrats favor a path to citizenship by a net of 47 points and independents favor it by 19 points, but Republicans are against it by 25 points.
Moreover, according to the survey, the trend lines show increasing support for a path to citizenship among Democrats and independents and shrinking support among Republicans. Net support has grown by 10 points among Democrats and 11 points among independents, but it has shrunk by 13 points among Republicans.
The implications of this for immigration reform are pretty clear: While it might be possible to break off a handful of Republicans to support reform, the idea of an overwhelming bipartisan vote for immigration reform is a pipe dream. The GOP's beltway establishment might know that in the long run, particularly in presidential elections, that Republicans can't afford to be the anti-immigrant party, but in the meantime, GOP elected officials continue to be held hostage by their dwindling base.
11:30 AM PT: Markos points out that the question wording in this poll made a huge difference in the numbers. GOP support for a path to citizenship is actually much higher when there is a clearly defined penalty for undocumented immigrants seeking citizenship.