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The Manchin-Toomey gun bill is scheduled to come to a first vote at 11 EDT Thursday morning, requiring 60 votes to break a threatened Republican filibuster and secure cloture on the motion to proceed to debate the actual bill. The watered-down compromise bill expands background checks to include gun shows, advertised sales, and internet sales, but exempts personal gun transfers, stopping short of what polls have shown a strong majority of Americans support.

Nonetheless, in the Senate, the question is if the bill can get to a 60-vote supermajority just to be debated. Things are looking good on that front, though, despite NRA opposition:

Democrats are confident there are 60 votes, however, as up to a dozen Republicans have pledged to vote with Democrats to bust any filibuster, even though most of those Republicans, with the exception of Sens. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., and Mark Kirk, R-Ill., haven't pledged to vote for the gun bill itself.
It's not like one supermajority vote is all it will take, either. Cloture on the motion to proceed could be followed by another vote on the motion to proceed itself. Next come the amendments, which Republicans intend to use to delay:
Republicans opposing the bill promise to offer as many amendments as possible, while taking as much time as allowed to debate those amendments, severely slowing the process down.

"We're going to have amendments on this," Reid said Wednesday. "Some of them are going to take a little bit of time. We're not going to finish the bill this week. I don't know if we'll finish it next week."

Sen. Pat Toomey, the Republican half of the Manchin-Toomey compromise, said that "We’ve got to reach 60 votes, actually several times in the process for this to go all the way," calling on voters to pressure their senators and representatives to support the bill.

And if the bill—again, a watered-down compromise—gets through all those 60-vote votes in the Senate, it still would have to get through John Boehner's House to become law.

Originally posted to Laura Clawson on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 07:18 AM PDT.

Also republished by Repeal or Amend the Second Amendment (RASA), Shut Down the NRA, and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  And when the watered down bill... (5+ / 0-)

    fails to prevent any casualties, the NRA and their ilk will point to it and scream "SEE!  Gun Control Doesn't work!"

    And then push for moah gunz!!!!!

    I don't blame Christians. I blame Stupid. Which sadly is a much more popular religion these days.

    by detroitmechworks on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 07:21:34 AM PDT

    •  As has been noted many times... (5+ / 0-)

      ... the NRA and its primary backers, the gun makers, don't care if criminals get guns. A sale is a sale.

      The reason they fight registration to the hilt is not because of the Second Amendment. The truth is that the NRA supports guns going to criminals (by preventing efforts to track how guns get to criminals) for the simple reason that it's good for business for the organization's biggest backers -- the gun makers.

      The gun makers don't give a rat's ass where the guns go as long as they go. Thus, the NRA does not want the public to know where the guns go or how they get there.

      And it's a win-win! The more criminals use guns, the more the NRA and its backers can stoke fear and paranoia among and sell their "self-defense" schtick.

      Hell, we see it right here on Daily Kos on a daily basis.

      Calling other DKos members "weenies" is a personal insult and therefore against site rules.

      by Bob Johnson on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 07:38:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  something from guardian-uk (0+ / 0-)

        about a live vote?

        guess i'll go lie down.

        There is no Article II power which says the Executive can violate the Constitution.--@Hugh * Addington's Perpwalk: TRAILHEAD of Accountability for Bush-2 Crimes.

        by greenbird on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:08:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  updated: (3+ / 0-)
          11.29am ET  The vote isn't closed yet, but the 60-vote threshold has been surpassed. Now only several more senate votes and a trying amendment process and one other obstinate chamber of congress stand in the way of [something gun-related] reaching the president's desk!

          There is no Article II power which says the Executive can violate the Constitution.--@Hugh * Addington's Perpwalk: TRAILHEAD of Accountability for Bush-2 Crimes.

          by greenbird on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:36:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  details from the guardian-uk blog: (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GoGoGoEverton, Joy of Fishes
            11.26am ET

            A good number of Republican senators have voted yes so far: Hoeven, Ayotte, Chambliss, Collins, Flake, Isakson, McCain, Burr, Coburn, Toomey, Graham, Alexander, Corker. (Via Luke Russert.)

            Lindsey Graham, who's up for reelection in South Carolina next year and is frequently the subject of primary challenge discussions, is already on the defensive about his vote to proceed.

                Many Senators have refused to even take a position on some of these issues for fear of angering one side or the other. Make them vote!
                — Lindsey Graham (@GrahamBlog) April 11, 2013

            11.20am ET

            Senator Mark Begich of Alaska, another Democrat up for reelection next year, also votes no.

            11.18am ET

            Senator Mark Pryor of Arkansas, a Democrat up for reelection next year, will vote no.

                Sen. Pryor will vote "no" to begin debate on gun bill.
                — Kasie Hunt (@kasie) April 11, 2013

            So far he is the only Democrat to vote against.

            There is no Article II power which says the Executive can violate the Constitution.--@Hugh * Addington's Perpwalk: TRAILHEAD of Accountability for Bush-2 Crimes.

            by greenbird on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:39:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  more details: (0+ / 0-)

              same source.

              11.48am ET

                  Reid says there will be a vote on assault weapons. "Some people love it. Some people hate it."
                  — Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) April 11, 2013

              The amendment process will begin in the coming days, and it is expected to be completely miserable, since this is the United States senate. Majority Leader Harry Reid, speaking just now on the senate floor, will allow contentious amendment votes on:

              • The Manchin-Toomey proposal.

              • The assault weapons ban.

              • A ban on high-capacity gun magazines.

              The more... devoted... Republicans will try to jam up the process by offering comical unrelated amendments. This will take some time.

              11.36am ET

              The motion to end the filibuster has passed, 68-31.

              There is no Article II power which says the Executive can violate the Constitution.--@Hugh * Addington's Perpwalk: TRAILHEAD of Accountability for Bush-2 Crimes.

              by greenbird on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 09:04:27 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Bob, what didn't work: (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Kentucky Kid, DSPS owl

        14-day and 30-day waiting periods.  Specifically if no mandate for investigation existed.  The NRA supposedly hated them as a waiting period prevented you buying 10 guns a day, every day... without the government knowing.

        Other than that whole BATF Form 4473 and mandatory Multiple Gun Sale reporting thing which has been in existence for decades.  "Hasn't made a difference"?
        That's back on enforcement and prosecution.

        The murderer of Rep. Carolyn McCarthy's husband, one Colin Ferguson, left New York and went to California - then one of the nation's toughest gun-control states.

        He applied for a Cali driver's license, and purchased a handgun - a Ruger 9mm - after the requisite 14-day waiting period.

        Months later, back in New York, Ferguson boarded the Long Island Rail Road train which held McCarthy's son and husband.
        He sat with the gun, a bag of ammunition, and the two 15-round factory standard magazines.  Passengers did their best not to make eye-contact with the scary black man, as he "calmly loaded dozens of deadly Black Talon 9 millimeter bullets into his clips" - a line written into next morning's Early Edition of the New York Daily News.

        Ferguson then shot both magazines empty, and was tackled as he returned towards his seat, where the rest of the ammunition waited.  Not being right-in-the-head, he probably figured on "calmly loading" more.

        Known as not-being-right-in-the-head for years, no one in official capacity took much notice of him.
        They did that evening.

        How familiar is this?
        Cho.
        Loughner.
        Holmes.
        Lanza.

        Waiting period?  FAIL.
        Lack of an improved NICS database?  FAIL.
        Lack of interest by Law Enforcement when informed of "homicidal intent"?  FAIL.

        Enact the totally awesome, everything we ever wanted gun ownership/purchase/possession restrictions, licenses, purchase coupons, national registry, and insurance act.
        On paper?  WIN.

        Based on past-performance?  FAIL.  
        Short of turning America into the next 1950s Combloc Country, with random searches (Stop and Frisk) and checkpoints (VIPR) how will this "all guns must be accounted for and known by the authorities at all times" goal of zero tolerance be accomplished?

        One other issue:
        Piecing the veil of HIPPA regarding medical conditions?
        I'm not so certain that will be handled well (NYS recently) - or fail to have far-reaching complications in other aspects of life.  An example would be access to public housing.

        Hmm... you're on this list... and we've so many other applicants... after all, public safety extends to who lives next to you, what they own, and what medical conditions they may have.

        I've read it here of DKos, so it must be true.

        The country was in peril; he was jeopardizing his traditional rights of freedom and independence by daring to exercise them.” ~ Joseph Heller, Catch-22

        by 43north on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:30:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So all you're talking about are crimes committed (2+ / 0-)

          ... with a gun by the mentally ill?

          Small subset of crimes committed with a gun.

          The NRA has been instrumental in making sure that guns cannot be tracked through registration for the simple reason that they don't want them to be tracked.

          That would be bad for business for their sponsors.

          Calling other DKos members "weenies" is a personal insult and therefore against site rules.

          by Bob Johnson on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:51:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ah, so we're not referencing (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SquareSailor

            the LIRR, Virginia Tech, Giffords, Aurora, or Sandy Hook shootings any longer.

            I failed to get the memo.  Today it's... Chicago?  Just guessing.

            Yesterday Chicago wasn't as-important as 20 children in Connecticut.  I really need to be put into the Facebook loop so I  know which MAIG/Brady talking-point is today's talking-point.

            The country was in peril; he was jeopardizing his traditional rights of freedom and independence by daring to exercise them.” ~ Joseph Heller, Catch-22

            by 43north on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 03:12:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Here's my post you responded to: (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              a2nite
              As has been noted many times...

              ... the NRA and its primary backers, the gun makers, don't care if criminals get guns. A sale is a sale.

              The reason they fight registration to the hilt is not because of the Second Amendment. The truth is that the NRA supports guns going to criminals (by preventing efforts to track how guns get to criminals) for the simple reason that it's good for business for the organization's biggest backers -- the gun makers.

              The gun makers don't give a rat's ass where the guns go as long as they go. Thus, the NRA does not want the public to know where the guns go or how they get there.

              And it's a win-win! The more criminals use guns, the more the NRA and its backers can stoke fear and paranoia among and sell their "self-defense" schtick.

              Hell, we see it right here on Daily Kos on a daily basis.

              So I don't know where you got the idea I was only discussing guns and the mentally ill. I was talking about guns in the hands of criminals. Nowhere did I mention or even suggest anything about guns in the hands of the mentally ill.

              Seems like you may be experiencing problems with your reading comprehension.

              Calling other DKos members "weenies" is a personal insult and therefore against site rules.

              by Bob Johnson on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 03:40:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Here's the rub (0+ / 0-)

                We're accused of cherry-picking facts, and changing the discussing middle of the page.

                What was the discussion prior to Newtown?

                35,000 gun deaths per year.
                OK, 15,000 of those were suicides, and suicide happens even in relatively gun-free societies such as Japans... but what about THIS case, where this asshole shot his family then himself.

                THAT is a SUICIDE.  No gun = no suicides.  
                Let's try it, and if it doesn't work?  FUCK IT.  
                We confiscated all the guns anyway.

                There were a dozen diaries on gun violence, domestic violence, and urban gun violence such as Chicago.

                To the latter:
                We've replied with what I believe to be a fact, regardless of locality.  Hopelessness, and no real opportunity, feeds young men into a willing criminal justice system.  A for-profit justice system.  Everyone makes money, including the funeral homes.
                The inconvenient truth is, until the cause of urban violence is removed, we're not going to change the pattern of violence.  No jobs, no need to go to school.  No parents, my gang is my family.  No hope, die young, die proud, be known, be feared.

                To be forthcoming, there's no reason Chicago, when totally gun-free, wouldn't resemble any other region where bombs replace guns.
                IRA bombs, Druze bombs, Shite bombs, Sunni bombs, Palestinian bombs, Taliban bombs.
                Stolen vehicle, plus fuel, plus detonator, plus $20 disposable cell phone on sale this week at Walmart for $13.  

                Pull-up to where your opposition is, walk away, dial a number and incinerate a street corner.
                Whole deal for less than the cost of a $200 High Point p.o.s. handgun.
                Hell, you can do two for that sort of money.

                That's not going to be an improvement.

                The country was in peril; he was jeopardizing his traditional rights of freedom and independence by daring to exercise them.” ~ Joseph Heller, Catch-22

                by 43north on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 03:43:16 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  I hope reciprocity is reintroduced. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FrankRose

    And that it has enough votes to pass. An expansion of a gun rights to offset the slight burden represented by checks and record-keeping would go a long way to win support.

    •  Scene at upcoming gun shows (5+ / 0-)

      after this has passed:

      Customer:  I want to buy this AR-15, but I can't pass a background check.  Can you help me out?

      Seller: Sorry, but I can't sell you a gun without  background check here in the show.  By the way, I'm going out back for a cigarette break in 15 minutes.  It happens I may have this AR-15 with me, along with a couple of 100 round magazines ...  See you there!  

      “What’s the use of having developed a science well enough to make predictions if, in the end, all we’re willing to do is stand around and wait for them to come true?” - Sherwood Rowland

      by jrooth on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 07:40:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Which means the framing must be correct. (0+ / 0-)

        'Expansion of background checks will not solve every issue, but it's not an undue burden and will help keep crazy people and felons from legally obtaining firearms.'

        Sure, they might still be able to get them 'off the back fo the truck', but then they also can go to jail for a long time for just doing that.

        I see what you did there.

        by GoGoGoEverton on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 07:50:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You mean like they do now? How many people who (0+ / 0-)

          attempt to buy a gun who are legally banned from doing so....ever see the bars of a jail cell?

          •  I believe when LEO's can focus on them (0+ / 0-)

            because that's the only way for them to get those firearms, it will be easier for them to catch, and easier for the transgressors to get caught.

            I see what you did there.

            by GoGoGoEverton on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:30:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  It will not be the only way....matter of fact, if (0+ / 0-)

              what is being discussed happens as it is now, not much will change at all.

              •  How do you (0+ / 0-)

                know?

                And you seem to have a problem with attempting it in the hopes that it will keep guns out of the hands of those who it's illegal to have them...why?

                I see what you did there.

                by GoGoGoEverton on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 09:09:49 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  What I have a problem with is if they are going (0+ / 0-)

                  to do all of this....at least try to first fix a seriously broken system and actually prosecute people who attempt to buy a gun and fail a background check.  Out of everything being done....this is the one thing that would have actually stopped Newtown....and no one is even talking about it.

                  Fourteen days prior to the shooting, he attempted to buy a gun and failed a background check.  What a different outcome, had they actually arrested him. All those children would still be alive.

                    But of all those who failed a background check last year, less than a percent ever had anything happen to them....they simply walked away to get a gun in any numerous other ways....just like he did.

      •  Definition of "Premises" is a street address. (0+ / 0-)

        So if the sales at 123 Main Street, the Civic Center, which is hosting a gun show this weekend are written into law as "premises" - then ALL transactions would have to be run through the NICS.

        Those who don't?  That's a simple job of making 10 arrests in 50 states and putting those Federal Sentencing laws into effect.  Circumvent the gun show law?  Do 5 solid years in Federal Pen.  Do it a second time?  10 years.  Third is "predicate Felon" territory and you're away forever.

        No arrests?  No effective laws.  That includes a "Complete and total ban on sale, possession and transfer of any weapon or ammunition feeding device covered under Diane Feinstein's AWB."

        Ban all you want.  No arrests?  No law.

        This is 100% on the Federal Prosecutors too - no whining about Arizona's laws prohibit effective prosecution.  It's FEDERAL LAW, Arizona hasn't a say in the matter.  
        It was lies as soon as spoken, designed to protect persons higher in the food chain from embarrassing testimony.

        The country was in peril; he was jeopardizing his traditional rights of freedom and independence by daring to exercise them.” ~ Joseph Heller, Catch-22

        by 43north on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:04:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Accurate, with one exception (0+ / 0-)

        100-round drum magazines are pretty rare and they are very unreliable.

        The parking lot at the Tulsa Arms Show (the largest gun show in the world) covers about 240 acres (3/4 of a mile wide by 1/2 a mile long) and every single space is taken.

        Inside there are 2800 8-foot and 1200 6-foot tables that, if placed end to end, would stretch 5.7 miles. (You could land a small airplane on the main floor, and the lower floor is almost as large.) And on each table is between 40 to 100 firearms.

        If a person spends the entire 18 hours that the show is open to the public and divide that by 4,100 tables, the person has 15.8 seconds to look at each table.

        There are usually so many people at the show that it's sometimes impossible to move.

    •  There should be reciprocity only such that the (0+ / 0-)

      most stringent law is followed.  Otherwise it's basically a gutting of all the progressive gun safety laws passed in progressive states like MD and CT.

      •  Nope. Reciprocity regardless. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SquareSailor

        A federal standard could be introduced to prevent insanity, but you're damned right this would steamroll Maryland, Illinois and New York. That's the point: Expand gun RIGHTS in exchange for gun SAFETY.

        I mean, you aren't opposed to gun rights, are you? I thought all you wanted was some common sense safety measures.

  •  McConnell has already been out (0+ / 0-)

    during the "leader's time" when the session first opened, Reid announced he was bringing this to the floor.  McConnell came to say that we would definitely be voting against cloture.

    I think Lee was the only GOP senator to speak.  I was on the phone and wasn't listening, but I suspect he said the same thing.

    I think Leahy might have just indicated that he spoke with Susan Collins and that they (he and Collins) were both in support to bring this issue to the floor for every Senator to vote.   .... so we have Collins?  At least for cloture?  Maybe?

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 07:39:23 AM PDT

  •  "How Many More Rounds?" (6+ / 0-)
    How many more rounds are we going to let this go on for?
    Published on Apr 10, 2013 - "How Many More Rounds?"

    Moms Demand Action has launched a campaign to drive support for new and stronger gun laws in America in the aftermath of the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012. The video, "How many more rounds?," is an emotive depiction of the damage caused by gun violence. An AR-15 assault weapon is fired in slow motion with each discharged shell casing representing a major shooting in America. The video ends with the message, "How many more rounds are we going to let this go on for?" along with a phone number to the Congress switchboard.

    Moms Demand Action was founded to demand action NOW to:


    1) Ban assault weapons and ammunition magazines that hold more than 10 rounds.

    2) Require background checks for all gun and ammunition purchases.


    3) Report the sale of large quantities of ammunition to the ATF, and ban online sales of ammunition.

    4) Make gun trafficking a federal crime with serious criminal penalties.

    5) Counter gun industry lobbyists' efforts to weaken gun laws at the state level.

    "If military action is worth our troops' blood, it should be worth our treasure, too; not just in the abstract, but in the form of a specific ante by every American." -Andrew Rosenthal 10 Feb. 2013

    by jimstaro on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 07:46:02 AM PDT

    •  Why are they holding on to #1 so much? (0+ / 0-)

      Specifically, the AWB? Rate of fire and round capacity are all that matter with a gun like the AR-15...render those insignificant in relation to other arms and who cares if it's black with a scope and pistol grip?

      The rest of those should work pretty well.

      I see what you did there.

      by GoGoGoEverton on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 07:52:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Uphill battle (6+ / 0-)

    But one worth fighting.

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 07:53:46 AM PDT

  •  Baucus announced his opposition (0+ / 0-)

    but says he won't fillibuster.

    http://t.co/...

  •  Maybe our reps should take a hint from this guy (0+ / 0-)

    http://abcnews.go.com/...

    The NRA may want to consider young Adam as their new face once Wayne LaPierre finally bursts a blood vessel in his brain. He seems a perfect choice.

  •  Streaming live on C-Span deux... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Maverick80229

    TRAP: Targeted Regulation of Ammunition Providers.

    by here4tehbeer on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:00:03 AM PDT

  •  Toomey has not committed (0+ / 0-)
    Republicans, with the exception of Sens. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., and Mark Kirk, R-Ill., haven't pledged to vote for the gun bill itself.
    Toomey made clear yesterday that he will support cloture but will not commit to any position on the bill until it is written.  ..and that he will not support it without the Amendment he wrote with Manchin.  Manchin also said he would vote against the bill if his amendment is not added.

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:01:19 AM PDT

  •  Here comes the vote. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Maverick80229

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:01:59 AM PDT

  •  I still say several election cycles (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Heart of the Rockies

    We are getting Senators on record on this issue. I agree the House is not a good bet.
    I wonder whether we can divide Republican voters.
     The Houston Chronicle yesterday had an article about how George W. Bush (in 2004 I think) took positions on gun regulation that would cost him today in a GOP primary.

    Censorship is rogue government.

    by scott5js on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:02:37 AM PDT

  •  Cloture invoked! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Joy of Fishes

    We got ourselves a debate!

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:16:07 AM PDT

  •  Personal Gun Sales Is Where The Terrorist (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite

    domestic and foreign are the first place they will get their guns.  Sad, just sad.  I believe that states on their own should ban the sale of personal weapons, and if a murder weapon was used by someone who bought a weapon from a person who is not licensed to sale weapons that person who sold the gun and the murderer both should both go to jail.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:30:16 AM PDT

  •  I think we're being tactically foolish. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, a2nite

    I hate guns and to be honest, I kind of hate gun owners.  But I think it's legitimate to take what you can get in a situation where it's uncertain whether you can get a better deal in the longer term.  This is America and people remember nothing, absolutely nothing: do I really want to pin my hopes on better gun control on the likelihood of future Newtowns?  No, I'd rather pin my hopes on starting with this watered-down but genuine bill, and using it over time to establish the reality that control doesn't equal confiscation or other Orwellian nonsense. Even though I'd be all for that kind of thing.

    You know, I sometimes think if I could see, I'd be kicking a lot of ass. -Stevie Wonder at the Glastonbury Festival, 2010

    by Rich in PA on Thu Apr 11, 2013 at 08:48:05 AM PDT

  •  Thanks Laura nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WakeUpNeo

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