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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections

    by James L on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 04:15:07 PM PDT

  •  Here's an Iowa map I drew (6+ / 0-)

    The independent commission there seemed to prize no county splits over even communities of interest to a degree and the state looks kind of funny when they drew it with pizza slices, but they did split no counties and the deviation is impressively within 100 people for all of the seats.

    My map tries to look at what a more California style commission might have produced, particularly with IA-03 and 04 where two distinct regions were split under the actual map (western Iowa and Des Moines metro area). Here's what I came up with, having only one split county:

     photo IAFairMapoverview_zpsb5dd7077.png

     photo IAFairMapData_zps809446cf.png

    What do you guys think? Obviously the 3rd district gets a good bit more Democratic and looking at the actual vote counts, the Democratic candidates narrowly won, however... this also has more of Latham's old district and he ran much further ahead of Romney than Steve King or the guys who got slaughtered by Loebsack and Braley, so I think he would have narrowly pulled it out here. A district like this probably would have prompted the DCCC/HMP to spend more, but they already put down $2 million only to see Boswell lose big. He really just had atrocious fundraising and got outspent ~2:1.

  •  Posting this after today's discussion about Lauper (4+ / 0-)

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 04:30:31 PM PDT

    •  Love her! (3+ / 0-)

      Don't forget Time After Time and True Colors and All Through the Night and Goonies and I Drove All Night and a great We Are The World contribution (don't groan), and this one too:

      http://www.youtube.com/...

      She had two good albums and then kind of flamed out. But there was really good stuff there. Loved her version of Prince's "When You Were Mine," too. And her activism, gotta appreciate what she stands for. Class act.

      •  My fave female rocker from the 80's is Joan Jett (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        I've seen her perform at County fairs in CA for almost 4 years.  and she's still working on new stuff.  

        "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 05:38:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Love "Bad Reputation" (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, KingofSpades

          Was fun to hear it in the opening sequence of Freaks & Geeks, which believe it or not I first watched sometime last year. Awesome show.

          Did you see the movie The Runaways? It was okay, but definitely worth it if you're a fan.

          •  I normally despise punk rock (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, KingofSpades

            with bands like the Ramones earning 2.5 out of 5 stars at best (crappy girl group pop songs + distortion /= good music), but Bad Reputation is pretty good. That show was all right for something that was pretty PG, but more than anything it was just interesting to see all of those Apatow actors at such a young age. I'm definitely a fan of Apatow and what that actor group typically does. I would highly recommend the show Party Down, it was literally laugh out loud hilarious.

            •  "I Wanna Be Sedated" rocks, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Audrid

              mostly because it reminds me of drunk-dancing in college with this straight dude I had a crush on. But other than that, and a few other random punk tunes, I don't have much of a connection to ithe genre. And besides, weren't the Ramones Republicans? :P

              I really liked Freaks & Geeks. It was edgy yet still had a heart, kind of like what "The Wonder Years" would have been if it were actually good TV and not saccharine: nostalgic, but nowhere near over the top.

              Never heard of Party Down, but I'll check it out.

              •  Crushes on straight guys are the worst. (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, WisJohn, Alibguy

                I'm trying to deal with one right now.

              •  The Ramones (7+ / 0-)

                were mixed politically; Joey leaned left and Johnny to the right.  Probably their most famous political screed was the Reagan-bashing "Bonzo Goes to Bitburg".

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 06:52:27 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Only John was a Republican (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, Zack from the SFV

                Pretty much the only punk rock conservative I can think of. Then again, the Ramones used classic pop structure and tricks in their songs, so how "pure" they were is up for debate.

                The Ramones were pretty awesome, though. Their lyrics were actually really strong, even though I'm not New York and don't get all of the in-jokes (though knowing that Rockaway Beach is a hellhole in real life, or at least was, makes that song great). But you can't beat "53rd and 3rd" or "The KKK Took My Baby Away", a thinly veiled swipe by Joey at Johnny for taking away his girlfriend.

                I'd definitely recommend albums 1-4 and 8. The rest, well, kind of suck. The only really musically talented guy in the group was Tommy, who played on 1-3, produced 4 and 8, and was gone for the others.

                •  You're absolutely right (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  about the albums, levlg.  Those 5 are the only ones I even still own.

                  For a good overview of their work, I would also recommend the compilation "Hey! Ho! Let's Go!"  It's a pretty good 2-disc set for people who like some of the better known songs, but don't necessarily want to hear some of their more obscure stuff.

              •  In all fairness, (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I believe only the guitarist, Johnny Ramone, was a Republican.  If I recall correctly, Joey Ramone was a fairly liberal Democrat, and this was a constant source of tension between the two.

                In fact, the song My Brain is Hanging Upside Down was originally called "Bonzo Goes to Bitburg," as it was a reaction to Reagan's speech at the Bitburg cemetery (Joey Ramone was Jewish, so he wasn't a fan of the speech).  The title was changed because Johnny was a Reagan fan.

                Not that anyone else really cares.  Just felt I should set the record straight.  I wouldn't want a dead man's legacy tarnished by claims he was a conservative.

          •  I saw that movie. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            Quite good.

            "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 06:23:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  "The Runaways" I mean (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              and I knew of that girl band before seeing the movie.

              "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 06:24:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  And there's quite a lot of contrast today (0+ / 0-)

                Cherie Currie, lead singer of the Runaways (and currently a chainsaw artist), is a religious neoconservative.  (I liked her on FB until she started ranting about Obama's supposed dislike of Israel a couple years back.)  While Joan Jett is as liberal as you get without going anarcho-Communist.  And they're friends to this day and in the Santa Barbara County fair in 2009, Cherie Currie came on stage for two songs.  It was friggin' awesome and during performance of "Cherry Bomb" she had on a white leather bustier like she wore during her time in the Runaways.

                "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

                by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:00:57 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Nobody works harder in concert, incl Springsteen (3+ / 0-)

          "For those who love to straddle and blur the line": Adrogynous
          http://www.youtube.com/...

          Her best self-penned song: You Don't Know What You Got
          http://www.youtube.com/...

          Lots of leftish and gender politics in her songs: Everyday People (dance Mix)
          http://www.youtube.com/...

          Sadly only the short version: Good Music w/ Beach Boys and Darlene Love
          http://www.youtube.com/...

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 07:07:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Don't forget her former band mate. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades


          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 10:32:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh yes! (0+ / 0-)

            Though she and JJ had a falling out after Curie left the band, Lita Ford has always been solid as a guitarist.

            "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

            by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 12:23:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  She's really underrated (0+ / 0-)

        People pretty much forgot about her after the 1980s but she really has been a great contribution to music.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

        by Alibguy on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 03:44:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  She's going to be on Jay Leno tonight (Fri). nt. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

      by WisJohn on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 07:04:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Starz = NJ= Christie v. Buono (0+ / 0-)

    is that your point?

    If not, it's mine.

    It's not a fake orgasm; it's a real yawn.

    by sayitaintso on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 04:36:12 PM PDT

  •  This song is awesome (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 05:10:26 PM PDT

    •  It's just about their only one (0+ / 0-)

      that I could find last time I checked (other than about three others), and they don't seem to be coming anywhere near KC or NYC anytime soon. So frustrating!

      Yes, it is bread we fight for -- but we fight for roses, too! | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 03:54:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MN-GOV: Dayton announces re-election. (13+ / 0-)

    Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

    by WisJohn on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 06:09:29 PM PDT

  •  Labor vote (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    I don't really know what this bill is about but I'm guessing it's anti-labor and it just narrowly passed in the House, with ten Republicans and all Democrats voting against.

    http://politics.nytimes.com/...

    All no votes from the GOP came from big union areas.

    Rodney Davis (R-IL)
    Michael Fitzpatrick (R-PA)
    Chris Gibson (R-NY)
    Mike Grimm (R-NY)
    Dave Joyce (R-OH)
    Peter King (R-NY)
    David McKinley (R-WV)
    Pat Meehan (R-PA)
    Tom Reed (R-NY)
    Don Young (R-AK)

    •  Hm. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Scanning for Obama-district Republicans: No Miller, no Valado, no Latham, no IRL, no Bill Young, no Denham, no LoBiondo, no Heck, no Runyan, no King.  Is that everyone (other than those who voted against it?)

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 06:41:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Um. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I mean, yes King.  Any surprises?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 06:42:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think your guess (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

      is probably correct.  Is there any time the phrase "uncertainty" is used politically in a way that isn't pro-business and anti-worker?

    •  Here's the CRS summary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Preventing Greater Uncertainty in Labor-Management Relations Act - Requires the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to cease all activity that requires a quorum of Board members. Prohibits the Board from implementing, administering, or enforcing any decision, rule, vote, or other action decided, undertaken, adopted, issued, or finalized on or after January 4, 2012, that requires a quorum of the Board members.

      Terminates the requirements of this Act upon: (1) confirmation of all Board members constituting a quorum with the advice and consent of the Senate, (2) a decision by the Supreme Court on the constitutionality of Board appointments made in January 2012, or (3) the adjournment sine die of the first session of the 113th Congress.

      Prohibits, in the event of this Act's termination, the implementation, administration, or enforcement of any Board action occurring on or after January 4, 2012, that requires authorization by not less than a quorum of the Board members, unless and until the action is considered and acted upon by a Board constituting a quorum, or the Supreme Court issues a decision on the constitutionality of the Board appointments made in January 2012.

      British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

      by General Goose on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 02:33:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Very cool NY Times page (6+ / 0-)

    Has a list of every vote since the 102nd Congress in which the Majority Party has broken the Hastert Rule

    http://politics.nytimes.com/...

  •  Weekend Music (0+ / 0-)

    Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. (-9.50, -8.05) "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

    by betelgeux on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 06:29:24 PM PDT

  •  Struggling w/phone but back (11+ / 0-)

    Been in Disney World w/wife & kids the past week and my smart phone fought my efforts to reach DKE even when I had time.  Glad to make it in throigh a backdoor just this once & will be back regularly after we get home to Virginia on Saturday night.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 06:32:16 PM PDT

  •  I'm interested in the L.A. Mayor's race. (6+ / 0-)

    Here's a fun article about how Garcetti and Greuel are spending the canpaign arguing over which of them is more "status quo".  (Greuel has apparently been against the status quo ever since "two weeks ago after she hired another campaign manager".)  That's always productive.  

    Meanwhile, SurveyUSA's latest poll has Garcetti with a 9-point lead.  He leads among most groups, and especially with, uh, Hispanics and Republicans (his Republican support seems to have soared after he was endorsed by Republican Kevin James, who came in third in the runoff, although that's by crosstabs).

    He's also been getting more labor money , where Greuel had previously led him by 100:1.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 07:02:16 PM PDT

    •  *came in third in the primary. (0+ / 0-)

      Also I see the poll was mentioned in the digest.  My bad.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 07:03:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  James endorsing Garcetti is interesting. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

      I think James did best in the Valley, which is also where Greuel did best.  That doesn't mean Greuel was their "natural" second choice, necessarily, for any number of reasons.  But if so, how Garcetti does in those areas would be an interesting test of the effect of an endorsement.

      After the primary, I was guessing the runoff would be a classic racially/regionally polarized L.A. map, with Garcetti winning minority areas and Greuel winning the Valley.  But maybe not.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 07:15:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Valley is a "minority area" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Darth Jeff

          at least most of the East Valley and the central part of the West Valley (Reseda, Canoga Park). Greuel makes a big deal about being a Val, but Garcetti also grew up in the Valley.

            There is no single majority in L.A.; the closest would be Latinos, but I don't think they are yet the voting majority.  Anglos and African Americans are still important in Los Angeles politics because we turn out at a relatively high rate to vote and have a lower percentage of non-citizens than Latinos or Asians.

             I am pleased that Mike Feuer is leading for City Attorney.  The polling looks decisive enough that I feel confident. I also think that Ron Galperin still has a good chance at Controller  because late-breaking low information voters will gravitate to the candidate of their party. We don't need to have Dennis Zine getting that job...

        Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

        by Zack from the SFV on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 12:12:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm a little surprised Bill Clinton's endorsement (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      hasnt really had any impact on the race.

    •  Its an interesting race (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      especially to see how the candidates deal with the influence of the labor unions. Gruel has really struggled with the perception that she is "owned" by Labor thus the more conservative candidates (Perry, James) have backed Garcetti.

      •  Her being supposedly "owned" by labor (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GloFish, kleinburger, gabjoh, HoosierD42

        makes me like her more. Who is labor but the entire class of people who produce anything at all in this country?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 10:16:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Organized labor differs from labor in general (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, ArkDem14

          just as how the NRA differs from gun owners in general.

          Organized labor is only about 12% of this country, and even then we should draw distinctions between the leadership and the rank and file. So when we talk about someone being in the "pocket", it's about being owned by the leadership of a given group - not its entire membership, nor for that matter all of the people that are similar in respects to that membership.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 10:37:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The leadership of labor unions is elected by the (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV, gabjoh, ArkDem14

            members, and it's not extremist like the NRA - in fact, for decades, its lack of militancy and identification with the Establishment really screwed the working class (and I don't mean in individual cases in which companies really did have to close factories, but in concentrating on anti-communism and hob-nobbing with politicians at fancy dinners instead of agitation on behalf of the interests of workers and against their erosion). But I guess we shouldn't debate things like that here...

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 10:59:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Somewhat more specifically. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

          Greuel has gotten a lot of her money from public employee unions, and in particular from the Department of Water and Power union.  (A distinctiom that @ValisJason pointed out to me on Twitter.)  I think.  But both she and Garcetti have significant union support.  Public employee union support is probably particularly fraught in municipal elections because of controversies over pension systems and the like.  

          In this article, for example, Garcetti criticized Greuel for being backed by the union representing DWP workers, and Greuel's apparent response was to accuse Garcetti of being insufficiently independent of the teacher's union, and to defend her own independence.  So apparently both of them recognize some political risk here, even in what I've read is a pretty heavily unionized city (and increasingly so in the private sector).

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 11:07:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Garcetti always reminds me of Carcetti (0+ / 0-)

      Is that accurate or not?

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 11:01:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Markey/Lynch is on my mind this week. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, kleinburger, itskevin

    ...since there are only a few weeks left until the primary.

    It's kind of an analogue to a revealed preference argument, but given all the flurry of activity for MA-05 and not MA-08, I can't help but be a little optimistic that Markey's going to win this one.

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

    by jeffmd on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 07:03:46 PM PDT

    •  I do think MA-08 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jeffmd

      would have the more entertaining primary.  I guess we'll see whenever Lynch retires.  (I doubt he himself will lose a House primary, though.)

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 07:06:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This is about the best I've been able to (5+ / 0-)

     photo gerrymander_zps98dcfae1.png

    come up with to make all of the Dem-held districts safe here.

    I particularly like my 4th, since it puts Bend, Eugene-Springfield, Corvallis, Coos Bay, and Ashland into one district, which completely overwhelms any Republican presence (even deeply red Josephine County).  DeFazio would be completely safe and once he retired even a very liberal Democrat could pretty easily in there.

    Bonamici and Blumenauer would more or less have successor districts, and Schrader would still be in his district, but it would be significantly progressive enough that he would have to assimilate or be primaried.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 08:16:43 PM PDT

    •  I assume the answer to this is no (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      Since you're Joe Oregon Politics, but does this map break the law mandating districts be contiguous by roads?

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 03:48:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  no, I made sure (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico

        And it isn't roads, but "transportation connections".  I'm not sure how that could be interpreted other than highways, roads, ferries, and active rail lines, but I'm open to other interpretations.

        The biggest problem with that law is that whatever district has Coos County probably has to have Curry.  As long as that isn't an issue, there are plenty of ways to get districts over mountain ranges and such.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 07:51:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Pat McCrory first 100 days (4+ / 0-)

    This is a pretty interesting interview.  McCrory's first 100 days have been pretty unremarkable since he hasn't really done anything.  He declined to comment on the state religion bill and other bills that would put restriction on divorce and abortion, saying they would never see the light of day and he didn't want to draw attention to them.  The pundits at the end of the interview said McCrory has not yet asserted himself in Raleigh and the Republican legislature is essentially governing right now.  The legislature has passed pretty much every bill with a two-thirds majority meaning McCrory hasn't even had to sign off on anything.

  •  So say goodbye to any successful politicos (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    from West Valley City in Utah. Apparently their police department is Utah's version of the LAPD. Corruption, brutality and etc. Plus there's the fact that the current Republican Mayor (Mike Winder) is known for only one thing: publishing flattering articles about his city in the Deseret News under a fake name. So he gives another face to West Valley's corruption problems. Basically, West Valley is messed up, with corrupt police, gang problems, massive inequality, ethnic violence (probably partially caused by the police), etc.

    I'm hoping that a Democrat can oust Winder in and clean up the city, as he's up for re-election this year.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 11:17:08 PM PDT

  •  any of you guys heard of this one senator from (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Nevada by the name of Patrick McCarran? None of us are probably old enough to remember who he was but he was a democrat who was a backbencher during the New Deal/WWII era but after the the war ended, started becoming overtly racist and antisemitic and made headlines for his friendship with Francisco Franco.

    So my question is this: Did the democrats ever try to curtail his power? He was chair of the Judiciary committee and wielded a lot of power. Was there ever an attempt by LBJ or Ernie McFarland to strip him of his chairmanship? Its possible that might have happened (and if not that, defeat in a primary) but he died before it could happen.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Apr 12, 2013 at 11:42:42 PM PDT

  •  Indiana Week in Review (9+ / 0-)

    I've seen SouthernINDem posting weekly comments about the discussions that occur on Kentucky's weekend political program, Comment on Kentucky. I've been considering it for awhile, and I've decided I'd like to start sharing the discussions that occur on Indiana's weekend political program, Indiana Week in Review. It tends to generally discuss the major political stories of the week that relate to Indiana, usually discussing either major events with major Indiana politicians or policy actions in the state government. I think it could be useful for helping to understand where the state is focused in any given week. It takes me a bit longer to write down and condense what's discussed, but I think it can be useful for weekend discussions.

    The panelists this weekend were the usual slate of panelists, which sometimes rotates (for example, Dan Parker and John Zody have filled the role of "Democrat" in the past):

    Moderator Jim Shella (WISH-TV Statehouse Reporter)
    Democrat Ann DeLaney
    Republican Mike McDaniel
    Journalist Jon Schwantes (Host of Indiana Lawmakers)
    Analyst John Ketzenberger (President of the Indiana Fiscal Policy Institute)
    An abortion restriction bill is currently on its way to Governor Pence's desk after it passed in the State Senate by a 35-14 vote. It regulates the abortion drug RU-486, and the bill dictates that if a clinic only provides chemical abortions, it has to meet the same standards as clinics offering surgical procedures to continue providing RU-486 (i.e. standards that the abortion clinic cannot possibly meet). It's a pretty blatant TRAP bill designed to shut down access to abortions in Lafayette, and Lafayette's Planned Parenthood clinic has said that they'll have to stop offering abortions if this bill becomes law. While it won't shut down access in all clinics, it's a clear attempt at further outlawing abortion in Indiana.

    A new bill calling for armed guards in every Indiana school has had a lot of debate and controversy. It passed committee with bipartisan support by a 16-7 vote. The arming of teachers has also been discussed as a potential amendment, though it currently is not a part of the bill. An amendment was later added dictating that a school district could seek a waiver to avoid the mandate for guns in schools. Attorney General Greg Zoeller initially began to push this bill with a focus on school resource officers and law enforcement officers, but he doesn't support an armed guard mandate, and he believes it should be left to the decision of individual school districts. After agreement from Mike Pence and Glenda Ritz with Zoeller, the bill was brought to the floor where an amendment was passed sending the armed guard mandate to a study committee that will likely release its results in December. House Speaker Brian Bosma has kept a very tight leash on the state legislature during his tenure, and the armed guards mandate only slipped through while he was on sick leave. Once he returned, Republicans had a four hour caucus meeting, and the amendment disappeared soon afterward. It'll be interesting to see how the legislation continues to advance, though recent data has indicated that gun violence has already decreased dramatically in schools in recent years, so this bill might be akin to getting a bad wound and putting a band-aid on a completely different part of the body that isn't injured.

    The State Senate passed another school voucher bill that provides extensions to the law passed in 2011. The bill would allow siblings of students who already receive vouchers to receive access to vouchers as well. Those siblings would no longer have to spend a year in public school in order to qualify. The vouchers would also be available to students who live in school districts that contain failing schools. The problems with the law are that the child can transfer to a private school as long as their school district has a failing school, even if it isn't their specific school that is failing. The impacts of school vouchers still aren't fully understood, so there's a large sense that the legislature is trying to ram through too much too quickly. The bill also doesn't adequately measure student progress in these private schools. The State Senate's bill is much weaker than the one being pushed by the State House, and even then, it only passed the State Senate by a 27-23 vote. There might be a sense of education reform fatigue, considering how much focus education has received for so long and considering the drubbing Tony Bennett received at the ballot box last November.

    The State Senate voted for a bill to reduce prison sentences for many non-violent criminals. The sentencing reform bill will force violent criminals to serve larger portions of their sentences by reducing the amount of good behavior benefits. It ultimately tries to eliminate the need for a new state prison which will have to be built if nothing is done. According to the bill's main proponent, Sen. Brent Steele (R-Bedford), "Proposed changes will permit the offender population of our prisons to remain under 29,000 until at least the year 2022. It looks as though there would be no need for any prison for the foreseeable future." The possession of an ounce of marijuana currently qualifies a person for felony charges. The bill initially would have made it 10 pounds to qualify for a felony, but now the bill has changed to allow only a third of an ounce to qualify for a felony. Steele initially supported a law earlier in the session to decriminalize marijuana, though Pence supports harsher penalties. This obviously wouldn't comport with changing attitudes on marijuana legalization, and it would contradict the effort to take non-violent criminals out of already overcrowded prisons.

    At the end of the program, a few notes were made about Joe Donnelly and Pete Visclosky now supporting gay marriage rights. I think it's great that both of them now support these rights, and I think it indicates that it won't be long before even Indiana has majority support for gay marriage. I personally believe that if a gay marriage ban came up for a vote in 2014, it would narrowly fail.

    This probably seems a bit long-winded, though it should be much shorter going forward. There could be a lot of electoral implications coming from the legislature's actions going forward, and Pence seems to be driving in neutral while mostly letting Bosma run the show in the state government. Bosma has been pretty good about clamping down on conservative social policy so far, but if Republicans begin to focus on social issues, they could be very negatively affected.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 12:40:58 AM PDT

  •  The Illinois chapter of the NAACP endorsed (9+ / 0-)

    the Marriage Equality bill. The legislator is coming back from a two week break.

    http://www.ontopmag.com/...

  •  IA-Sen (7+ / 0-)

    Will Braley get an opponent at some point? It seems like the big guns are keeping their powder dry, perhaps to succeed a likely-retiring Grassley in a couple years.

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/...

    •  I think that's foolish for everyone except Latham (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, itskevin

      why do they think it would be any easier under presidential turnout when all things equal we're likely to carry the state. Then you have the possibility of a true Democratic titan in the state like Tom Vilsack running and it's quite difficult for someone like Northey or Reynolds to win. The only downside to running now is that they can't run for reelection, but if they actually want better chances of holding a senate seat this seems like the cycle to do it. Hopefully 2016 is a Latham Vilsack race and we pick up both the senate seat and his house seat.

    •  Do we know if Branstad is running (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      for reelection even?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 10:21:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I have a theory... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think if King decides not to get in, Latham may reconsider the race. Latham dropped out mostly because King's entrance seemed like a sure thing. If King doesn't run, Latham would be foolish not to look at the race again.

      I think King's cold feet has surprised a lot of Iowa Republicans. He seemed like a sure bet a month ago.

      •  foolish? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, MichaelNY

        Latham would probably still be an underdog to Braley unless the national environment were to shift in favor of the GOP. If he were to vacate his House seat, the Dems would be 50-50 or better to pick it up. Latham might decide that it's worth the risk anyway, but it's hardly a no-brainer.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 09:18:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NG-GOV: Barbara Buono on MSNBC Chris Matthews Show (7+ / 0-)

    Hardball.  She was on the show thursday evening, see here:

    http://blogs.app.com/...

    I like her so well.  I did donate to her in February (matching funds and all), but I know this is uphill.  Damn, I would love for her to win though.  She seems smart, and I think it's time for NJ to have another woman in charge.

    27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

    by IndyLiberal on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 08:56:17 AM PDT

  •  Minneapolis Mayor: Time to make up my mind (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    So DFL (and GOP? Not that it really matters in Minneapolis.) precinct caucuses are this Tuesday night. I presume there will be a straw poll for the race as well as the city council races that are being contested. I've seen so little from each of the candidates (which is strange since I've caucused in 2008, 2010, and 2012) so I really have no idea who to vote for.

    Does anyone here have any opinions on the candidates? There isn't much time left so I really need to get off the fence about who to support. I couldn't find much information except from their websites which I don't really think you could call objective. For reference, the candidates are:

    DFL
    Mark Andrews (Former County Board Member, founder and owner of GreenMark, former chair of the MN DFL)

    Jackie Cherryhomes (Former City Council Member/President)

    Betsy Hodges (Current City Council Member)

    Don Samuels (Current City Council Member)

    Gary Schiff (Current City Council Member)

    GOP
    Cam Winton

    Independent
    Jim Thomas

    22, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

    by JonathanMN on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:34:37 AM PDT

  •  MI-Senate: Progressive blog whining about us (0+ / 0-)

    preferring Gary Peters to Debbie Dingell. Or more accurately, about how liberal blogs prefer Peters.

    http://www.eclectablog.com/...

    And yet, that blog never explains the reasons why we might dislike Dingell.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:44:02 AM PDT

    •  Uh... (0+ / 0-)

      I think you missed the whole point of that blog post.

      •  Probably (0+ / 0-)

        Now that I think about it. And I'm a non-Michigander, so I probably missed the nuances. I'm just uncomfortable with the Dingells as a dynasty.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:58:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  honestly that made me like Dingell more (0+ / 0-)

      which isn't hard since I know next to nothing about her.  I'd still prefer someone who has more political experience, though.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:59:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My issue would be difference (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

      This race isn't even on my radar right now.  Has anyone even officially announced?

      Since Debbie Dingell seems to be the focus, my first question for her, if she enters the race, would be "on what issues to you and your husband differ?"  While John Dingell is good on a lot of issues; there are some like gun control and the Big 3 that I don't like.  That was probably why I wanted Lynn Rivers to win that race versus Dingell back in 2002.  I barely remember the race, but it felt like she would be more progressive on all not some of the issues.

      To the post on Electablog, they only point to a Planned Parenthood rally as why liberal or progressive blogs shouldn't dismiss Dingell.  She may be liberal on a whole host of issues, I don't know. I just haven't paid this race any attention.

      However I can recall at least 2 instances over the last couple of elections that the pro-choice female candidate wasn't necessarily the better choice.  If I'm remembering correctly, back when it was Swing State Project, we kept wondering why Nikki Tinker was challenging Steve Cohen, and why Emily's List was backing her when Cohen seemed to be just as solid on the abortion issue as Tinker.

      I also vaguely remember this was the same issue with an Alabama race between Terri Sewell and Sheila Smoot. Both pro-choice, but Sewell the more conservative on some issues and Emily's List chose the Sewell.

      •  I don't want Debbie Dingell... (5+ / 0-)

        To be our candidate just because of her last name. If she wins the trust of Michigan Democrats and shows some sign that she'd be a better choice than Rep. Gary Peters, I'm all for it, because frankly I'm still pretty pissed at Peters for primarying then-Rep. Hansen Clarke instead of standing his ground and...well, he would have dusted now-Rep. (shudder) Bentivolio, but he would have had a good chance of taking down then-Rep. McCotter as well.

        I still wish Gretchen Whitmer would run for something. Her family can suck it up.

  •  MA-09: Bill Keating absolutely romped in 2012 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I looked up some House races in MA on a town-by-town basis.  Keating won EVERY single town in his district, which is the least Dem district (or tied for it) in the state:
    http://www.boston.com/...

    Prez and Senate results for comparison:
    http://boston.com/...
    http://boston.com/...

    For example, the Plymouth Co. town of Halifax was won by Romney 66-32.  Bill Keating won it 53-37%.

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 10:16:43 AM PDT

  •  Since some people had never heard (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    of Cyndi Lauper, let me continue on her music with my favorite Lauper song:

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 10:23:31 AM PDT

  •  New Jersey Redistricting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, Skaje, KingofSpades

    Which map do you guys think would be more likely for an independent commission/court to draw in south Jersey. Two would obviously be much better for Democrats as it makes the difference between giving Runyan a Likely R and Safe D district, while Three does that but in return gives Pallone a swing district, however the effect is the same and would give us an extra seat, so here's what I came up with:

     photo NJ3maps_zps0f41b85a.png

    The rest of the map has 5, 8, 9, and 10 being safe D while 11 was 52% Obama '08 but Frelinghuysen, whose base is there, or Lance, who represents more of the district, would have a good shot at holding it. Both the 8th and 10th are just over majority VAP Hispanic and Black respectively.

    So what do you all think; one of these, or something significantly different?

    •  I think 1 is the best (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      as far as what a court or CA-style independent commission would do.

      "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 12:21:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like the 2nd one (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      Keeps the 2nd on the shore, not 100% sure about putting Camden in with the Burlington County district, maybe the 3rd should take in some of Cherry Hill and the 2nd could take Cumberland.

      I like the suburban lines the best though in the 2nd map in North Jersey.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

      by Alibguy on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 03:40:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes I figured you would; I decided to draw it (0+ / 0-)

        or rather decided to post it after seeing your map at Blue Jersey when I was scouring for the Dem's 2011 proposal which apparently never leaked. I do feel like though that it's a soft Dem gerrymander and that if you're going to do that you have to go with the 3rd map which makes Pallone's district swingish (though he'd hold it any year other than 2010). Anyway though, the choice of jurisdictions in Camden County is rather irrelevant to the 3rd district being Safe D; dropping Ocean County does that regardless. Still, I don't like that the 3rd combines Burlington and Ocean, but all of the other iterations I've tried have a very similar and less satisfying combination of disparate communities.

        And thanks about North Jersey as it's actually the same in all of the maps in terms of 5 and 7-11. I'm really not that sure about how a court/commission would draw 11 as mine is swingy and I could certainly see it being less so, which your map did but made Holt's seat a tossup as a consequence.

        •  Thanks for looking at that (0+ / 0-)

          Yeah, I had Holt's seat as a tossup in order to get a competitive district although I think Holt would have a slight edge although Lance would be tough to beat.

          Now that I think about though, I really do like the 3rd and I like the 11th district.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

          by Alibguy on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 05:36:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Mountain West political blogs? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    So since I've been getting bored with Utah politics (seriously, the Utah-related stuff I post here is as much as I can find in several weeks), but I still like Mountain West politics in general, I'd like to know if there's any good blogs/news for this whole region. Preferably progressive, but as long as it's accurate and comprehensive, I'm fine with whatever can be found.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 10:27:15 AM PDT

  •  so according to forecasts I've seen for 2020 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, gigantomachyusa

    Virginia and North Carolina are both potential gainers in reapportionment.  I've drawn what I think is a likely compromise map for Virginia, since I think its likely the legislature will either be divided or of a different party than the governor.

    But what do some of you, and I'm especially curious about North Carolinians, think the legislature will do if that state gains a district?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 11:58:14 AM PDT

    •  They'll likely have to draw a 10-4 map (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, James Allen

      and I think they would have done so last year as you can make every single district rock solid. At the very best you might be left with a 4th Dem district is only barely D+ but that's a strongly Dem district in North Carolina.

      Especially if McIntyre survives the decade, but even if he doesn't, they will generally have to draw a VRA 1st district vote sink, a triangle area non-VRA vote sink, a Fayetteville/southeast/Wilmington Vote Sink that could maybe snake into south Charlotte, and the Charlotte to Triad vote sink 12th district. Given the pattern of growth in the state over the coming decade and the pattern that will continue in the next one, their Charlotte area districts and Triangle area district/s will be what forces the need to cede a 4th district to Dems, plus if incumbents have any veto over the map then that won't help any.

      •  It seems like things are so gerrymandered now (0+ / 0-)

        that any changes through re-apportionment will have to benefit Dems. E.g., new seats in VA and NC will have to be Dem seats. If Texas gains three seats, I think they will all have to be Dem seats. And if OH, PA, and MI each lose a seat, is there any way that they can avoid it being a republican seat that gets cut out? All of that is presuming republicans still have total control in those states, too.

        Silver linings, I guess...

        •  Re: Texas (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf

          There's no way to draw all three as Dem. It's likely to be 2-1 Republican if they're way too aggressive as this past round OR 2-1 Democratic if they listen to reason. And if the court finds that minorities deserve even more seats than they now have for this round, I expect that 2-1 Republican is more likely next time around with the new Democratic seat being another Hispanic seat in Houston.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 01:54:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh. (0+ / 0-)

            Well that just seems crazy to me. I can't imagine how a new Hispanic district in DFW and another in S. TX/San Antonio would not be required, in addition to the Houston one. (That would still be just 15 minority seats out of 39 - 38% - at a time when minorities will be 60% of the state's population.) But I'll take your word for it.

            •  Well think about it further (0+ / 0-)

              if those are the only two seats that Republicans are forced to concede to Democrats, why the hell would they concede any others? Texas is a state like Georgia where we're at the point when Republicans can, after they've drawn all of the VRA-required districts to be vote sinks maximizing Dem performance, the left overall rest of the state is going to be safely Republican. So why wouldn't they crack any remaining centers of white Democrats like Austin when there's nothing preventing them from drawing in neighboring starkly Republican areas.

              Obviously that's not what your comment was saying, but I don't see the state being forced to draw more than just two more minority seats as I agree with wwmiv that an additional fajita strip could have turned TX-27 into a Hispanic majority CVAP district this decade. The fact that the court didn't require one when it ruled tells me that, especially if the conservatives still controlled the court and at this point that looks likely, we can probably expect no more than 2 districts being required thanks to CVAP being so horrendously low among Hispanics in Dallas and Houston. Furthermore, while they did allow for the 2nd 'VRA' district in the DFW metro area, that was BS too. While the district is 59.7% Hispanic VAP, CVAP is almost certainly no higher than the low 40s at most meaning that Hispanics didn't have the ability to elect the candidate of their choice (who was effectively Domingo). They could have easily moved that district north and had it almost just as Hispanic while constructing an actual VRA district to the south, except that this one would be >35% VAP Black and thanks to Hispanics having such low citizenship rates, the electorate would certainly be majority black.

              That the didn't require either of these two districts tells me that as long as Scalia and his band of merry racists control the court, we shouldn't expect more than 2 additional VRA districts to help us elect additional Democrats. I'd even go further and say they won't force an additional one in Houston for the very reason that they didn't force the 2nd black district in DFW as it's very easy for the GOP to draw the three districts we have in a way where they can bitch an moan about how forcing a 2nd Hispanic district blocks one of the two black districts (and it's true to a degree more than in DFW but still somewhat false).

              •  projecting the 2020 demographics (0+ / 0-)
                an additional fajita strip could have turned TX-27 into a Hispanic majority CVAP district this decade.
                Yeah, but there will probably be an additional 400,000 hispanics in South Texas by 2020, and perhaps another 300-400,000 in San Antonio, and that's not counting Corpus Christi (or El Paso, which will have to absorb that much more of TX-23).

                As for DFW, the court did require an additional minority district this time around. And by 2020, there will probably be (back of the envelope here...) another 500-700,000 minorities in Dallas and Tarrant counties alone. Given that you can, indeed, already draw a Hispanic VRA district there now if you really want to, surely it will be that much harder to argue against it in 2020.

                As for Houston, I'm not quite sure I follow what you're saying. It's certainly not difficult to draw the hispanic districts in a way that doesn't "block" the black districts - just take TX-18 up through the northeast instead of the northwest side; then you can have a hispanic district on both the east side and the west side. And again: Harris County will probably gain at least 700,000 minorities by 2020, and that's not even counting Fort Bend County.

                Finally, as for CVAP: yes, it's very low in Houston and DFW, but those numbers will increase rapidly as the hispanic population ages:

                Interesting differences among the major cities, to be sure. What’s even more interesting is applying a bit of algebra to the numbers provided, which show that Houston’s <18 population is 87.3% citizen. The trend is replicated throughout the state, with the statewide number for all cities being 92% for <18 Hispanics.
                OK, I know I said I'd take wwmiv's word for it, but now I'm starting to talk myself into not believing you guys. :)
                •  But that's just my point (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Skaje

                  at this stage we're still likely to have a similar make up on the point and they explicitly condoned the map that thwarted those minority districts from being drawn. I'll repeat, that was my point and that's why I don't think you should think the new districts would be 3D-0R.

                  And furthermore, no the 33rd is not an effective Hispanic district; it's a coalition district. CVAP is not high enough to allow the Hispanic community to elect the candidate of their choice and only barely allowed the Black community to elect the candidate of their choice. VRA law is in a very gray area in terms of Black-Hispanic districts, but it's relatively clear when it's one minority group vs. whites. You could easily draw a district just as Hispanic as the 33rd but with far fewer blacks which allows Hispanics to elect the candidate of their choice while simultaneously drawing a district that allows the black candidate of their choice/ in a way/ that is consistent with the current law/jurisprudence (somewhat iffy on the Hispanic district as it would be more of a coalition, but it would effectively elect a Hispanic Dem in the same way that a 43% black district elects a Black Dem).

                  Anyway, the 27th district could have been drawn as an additional VRA district without going into the San Antonio area:
                   photo TXFairMapoverview_zpsfc01f7ff.png
                  (click for larger. wwmiv drew it)

                  All of the 4 fajita strpits and the 23rd plus the San Antonio and El Paso seats are SSVR (Spanish Surname Voting Registration) majority in addition to being very strongly Hispanic VAP majority. That's in sharp contrast to any iteration of the DFW and Houston districts where in DFW it's impossible to get a SSVR majority district and in Houston it's somewhat hard to get one. That's basically the best metric we have to CVAP on DRA and is pretty close to it in general. That's why I said that the 33rd isn't a Hispanic VRA seat and that the Texas Republicans might be able to block the 2nd Houston seat because if you have the 18th go up the southeast instead of the southwest, it's hard to get the 29th Hispanic enough where it's SSVR majority and impossible to get the 7th that high under the 2010 census. I don't see that changing drastically in 2021 though it's certainly plausible; it's just that I highly doubt SCOTUS forces it.

                  So the fact that SCOTUS didn't force these that were easily drawable and basically condoned the current map makes me think they would do something similar in 2021 when they still control the court. Again, that was my point: that SCOTUS actively aids Republican gerrymandering.

                  •  :) (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Stephen Wolf

                    Thanks for the shout out.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:57:24 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Well I admit that I am pretty fuzzy (0+ / 0-)

                    on both a) the legal requirements of the VRA, and b) how it is enforced, as a practical matter. So I'm not really in a position to argue that 3 new Dem districts is so much more likely than 2. It would at least seem that 3 new minority districts ought to be required in each of the 3 regions I mentioned, given that each of those regions will gain basically an entire district's worth of minority population.

                    At any rate, it would be awesome if one of the knowledgeable folks here would do a diary about the VRA redistricting requirements, because it comes up frequently here, yet like I say, I still don't really understand a) or b) that I mentioned above.

                    •  I won't disagree with this: (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Chachy, NMLib
                      It would at least seem that 3 new minority districts ought to be required in each of the 3 regions I mentioned
                      Honestly, I'd go further and say that this round 2 new minority districts ought to be required if we were looking at this from a very fair reading of the VRA all while maintaining Doggett's coalition district:

                      1. New fajita strip as I've drawn above that Stephen so wonderfully cited.

                      2. New Hispanic district in DFW that is actually effective (42ish% SSVR with a low AA percentage would be an actually effectively district.

                      3. New AA district in DFW parallel to and beneath the Hispanic district.

                      In 2020, if Texas gained 3 districts then, you'd look to see a new San Antonio district created by splitting the 28th and slightly pushing the rest of the existing fajitas toward and up (in the case of the 27th) the coast and the new Hispanic district in Houston. The 3rd, no matter what you do, because of the distribution of ethnic voters, will be a Republican district.

                      Notice that if it were being done this way that after 2020 Democrats and Republicans would still not be at parity in the delegation 23 R to 16 D.

                      If CoI were somehow respected Democrats would easily get another district in Austin as I've drawn above and it'd be 22-17.

                      There's also the possibility that if Odessa and the lower possibility of Midland keep growing more Hispanic and if Battleground Texas really does help move those areas as they intimated in numerous interviews that those two counties will be placed into the 23rd to keep it at benchmark performance while removing entirely from the San Antonio area - this actually helps create the new San Antonio area district.

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 06:00:31 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

      •  That is unless VRA gets struck down, but they'd (0+ / 0-)

        Still need to do a 10-4, which I would be perfectly fine with. Like your map below.

        21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Performance.

        by aggou on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 02:19:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Section 2 is not at stake, though. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, madmojo, jncca

          "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 02:23:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks and I do agree, especially with incumbency (0+ / 0-)

          there is no way that the GOP wouldn't draw a 10-4. I sadly do wish that NC had gotten it's 14th district because it would have been a double bonus for the Dems. Michele Bachmann's district would have been on the chopping block in Minnesota and Mike McIntyre would have gotten replaced by a liberal Democrat. That's definitely worth the price of losing one guaranteed, but not out of reach electoral vote to me.

          The VRA won't get struck down though as only Thomas has telegraphed that he wants to do that. The other 3 might want to in their heart of hearts, but they would never risk the blowback from it except maybe Scalia, but I think he's smart enough to realize what he can get away with and what he can't.

          •  Oh and in addition the DCCC and other Dem groups (0+ / 0-)

            wouldn't have had to spend over $2 million on McIntyre and keep having to spend on him for more cycles, which in itself is worth it even if Rouzer proved as annoying as Bachmann which is unlikely. I think it's a travesty they didn't triage him when they did it to people like Steve Driehaus in 2010 who actually voted for Health Care Reform and he only lost by 5 and was a good deal more liberal. I get that they protect incumbents, but come on. Any liberal donor should be outraged by that sort of thing and I would certainly actually advocate not giving to the DCCC if you're a liberal if not for the absence of a pragmatic alternative (which DfA and the PCCC are not; not every liberal donor can be electorally aware).

            •  I actually was really surprised how well (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Rouzer did.

              I was expecting McIntyre to win by 3-4, the best I was hoping for would be a small Rouzer win, but I never expected it. Then come election night, it was only a few hundred votes.

              I wonder how McIntyre will fair in a mid term, when AA voting will be down slightly, not that he had a great number of AA's to begin with, in his district.

              21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Performance.

              by aggou on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 03:43:12 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  The DCCC's choice makes some sense (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, gabjoh

              In districts like NC-07 and UT-04 if the Democratic incumbent loses, there goes a seat that we'll never get back.  That gives the GOP an extra safe seat and makes retaking the House that much harder.  

              I definitely agree it's frustrating to see us need to prop them up cycle after cycle, but it does make a lot of strategic sense.  

              23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

              by Jeff Singer on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 03:47:34 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I disagree if you look at the fact that they (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje

                triaged people Driehaus. This is a district that they probably could have anticipated being drawn to R+6 or so meaning that if we lost it in 2010 why would they have given it up when we would have had a hard time winning it back and we came so close to winning it in 2010. Furthermore, if they didn't anticipate it being drawn to R+6, why the fuck did they think it wasn't worth investing in a D+1 seat that we could hold with ease in the future rather than to invest continually in seats that would be hard to hold. I do not think the DCCC's choices make sense at all from a practical stance or from a liberal perspective, only from the perspective of protecting longer term incumbents. This is totally the wrong approach they have in my opinion as it doesn't reward people who are more loyal to the party nor does it reward members for being more liberal which is a double whammy and is ridiculous from even a self interested standpoint.

                I'll say it again, if you're a liberal, why the hell would you give to the DCCC other than for the sole reason that they may know which races to invest in.

                •  The DCCC thought Driehaus would lose (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Darth Jeff, Stephen Wolf, jncca

                  That's why they triaged him. And if it was a mistake, it wouldn't be the first or last one they make: They are human and subject to misjudgments. But their error was not one of strategy. They always help incumbent Democrats any time they think those incumbents have a realistic chance to win.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 06:22:18 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

    •  Something like this: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42, James Allen

       photo NC14GOP10-4overview_zps8f817991.png

       photo NCGOP10-4data_zpsfece5291.png

      I can't remember if I ever posted it, but given what the actual map looks like this probably wouldn't have been too far off. I made sure not to give McIntyre a remotely winnable district and so that both George Holding and David Rouzer could get elected like the legislature tried to. The 3rd uses water contiguity, but they would have just split precincts instead.

    •  Can't assume divided govt in Virginia (4+ / 0-)

      The state Senate is likely a goner from us after the 2015 state midterm.  So the GOP probably holds both chambers here heading into the next re-map, and we'll have to win likely both the 2017 and 2021 Governor's races to force a fair map.  This is because the GOP will want to put off re-mapping until 2022 if the Dems hold the Governorship before the 2021 election, and they'll get away with it.  And of course they'll push through maps ASAP in 2021 if we lose the Governorship in 2017.

      We really need to put together a string of wins in Governor's races, starting this year and winning offices downballot.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 07:57:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  do you think if the state gains a 12th (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and Republicans were in control that they'd try to create a fourth Dem vote sink, or that they'd try to stretch even farther to gain another district themselves?  I have a hard time seeing the latter as really possible.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 08:02:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Depends on demographics & elex results... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          ...in the cycles leading up to it.

          The better the demographics become for us, and the better we do as a result in elections of all kinds of cycles compared to previous comparable cycles, then the more likely the GOP will give us another Democratic vote sink to mitigate the damage.  But if the GOP is winning the state in Presidentials once or twice in 2016 and/or 2020 and otherwise is doing fine in state races, then they will go for another GOP seat.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:14:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  if a 4th Dem district is drawn, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            I'd expect Scott's district to go inland to pick up some of the heavily black areas and move out of the Norfolk/Hampton area, and a new urban, heavily black vote sink in that area, leaving both around 68-69% Obama.  That can make the 2nd and 4th safely Republican, and you can still cut up the leftovers of Northern Virginia enough to keep the 10th at R+1 and if done right can keep the 1st and 5th safely R too.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:40:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  most of the growth is in NOVA (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, DCCyclone

              what I see happening is Wolf's district contracting and a new GOP district being created from the western rural part of VA 10 and the northern part of VA 7. Wolf's district then becomes dem leaning but his successor (assuming he's a pub) runs in the new district and Wolf's old seat is then won by a dem.

              RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

              by demographicarmageddon on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 10:31:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  how, then, (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone

                would Republicans secure the districts in the southeast which would have to absorb more of Scott's district?

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 10:38:22 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  isn't Scott's district pretty static in terms of (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone

                  population. Its possible that VA-03 may eventually be restored to the old Satterfield/Bliley district.

                  RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

                  by demographicarmageddon on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 10:43:09 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  regardless it would have to shrink (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                    I just looked at trying it your way, and it leaves the SE too vulnerable to Dems.  The 3rd Dem district in the north would almost certainly be less than 60% Obama, whereas a 2nd in the SE could be over 68% Obama.  It simply absorbs more Democrats, leaving fewer in Republican districts.  Its more efficient.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 11:07:54 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

      •  Why do you think that about the Sen.? (0+ / 0-)

        I don't see it as too likely unless Puckett retires. Also, if Dems win the Guv, McAuliffe can set up a massive PAC like McDonnell did to spend on off-year legislative races.

        "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 08:34:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's a 20-20 tie, lose one and we're toast (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          The problem is we have almost nothing that's a good pickup opportunity.  We'd need a blue dog to break through in a GOP-friendly district.

          Meanwhile, there are a couple Dem-held seats that are likely to flip when incumbents retire.  There is Puckett, yes, but also Chuck Colgan.  And we have a few other incumbents in districts that lean Dem but are never really safe.

          Demographics will help us somewhat, but only very slowly.  The state Senate elections are our worst cycles for minority turnout since there is nothing statewide or federal on the ballot, only the state legislature and county officies.  Tough to get our more casual voters to show up for that.  It will improve over time, but again, only slowly.

          I think everyone here will be surprised if the state Senate is still Dem-held after 2015.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:17:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I think Democrats have a good shot at retaking (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      the NC legislature in 2020.  I've said before I think Attorney General Roy Cooper will run then, either that or run against Richard Burr in 2016.  If he does the latter, we've got much stronger Democratic candidates waiting in the wings than the Republicans do, and I think Dems are poised to retake the Governor's mansion in 2020 - assuming McCrory will be finishing his 2nd term then.  That's a bold prediction, but hey, you asked what would happen seven years from now. :)

      Gerrymandering has made the state legislature much harder for Dems to retake, but it is by no means impossible.  It was impossible in a 2012 climate, and probably 2014, 2016, as I think McCrory will remain pretty popular.  But in a climate in which Democrats could actually win (poor Walter Dalton never had a chance), the legislature could be in play, as well.  We would have won the legislature in a 2006 or 2008 climate where Dems were popular statewide.

      And NC is expected to continue growing very quickly, we will get a 14th district and maybe even a 15th district since we were due for a 14th district in 2010... we only very narrowly lost it to Minnesota (who very narrowly kept their 8th district).

      The Raleigh area will definitely be where most of the growth happens, Charlotte will see some too, but Wake County is expected to surpass Mecklenburg County as the largest county in the state and both should have well over a million people by 2020.  Meanwhile the eastern part of the state, with the exception of Wilmington, will be stagnant so the 1st & 3rd districts will expand in area.

      •  Goverrnor has no involvement in redistricting (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, James Allen

        The Governor has no veto power over redistricting.  It's only recently that the Governor has any veto power.

        •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

          But I think a strong Democratic victory could sweep Democrats into the legislature on coattails.

          •  I disagree, in fact 2020 being a presidential (0+ / 0-)

            basically ensures that Republicans will maintain control. The median districts are about R+8 and that won't get much more favorable as a lot of the Dem trending growth in the state is already packed into Dem districts. The Republican candidate's coattails will bring a lot of straight ticket voters out, even if they don't win the state they'll be winning the median district probably with ease.

            And I don't think there's any reason to believe that a wave would happen that year for us as if there were a backlash wave it's going to happen earlier. Even if that hands us the legislature in 2014 or 2018, we'll just lose it the next cycle. I also wouldn't assume that Cooper has coattails as the presidential race is going to be the driver of turnout, not the gubernatorial race. Republican house candidates and their statewide candidates lagged significantly behind McCrory. Hell, Dan Forest nearly lost to a black woman in North Carolina!

            I really think that the only way we get back the legislature is if we retake the supreme court and they throw out the maps. Hopefully the NC GOP making Supreme Court races partisan backfires and we take it back. I really don't see the benefit for them on that one as it only hurts their party when the state at large becomes more Democratic.

            One last point, is that when Republicans push all these radical right wing policies on the state, one of the intended consequences is to thwart Democratic growth from more liberal people moving into the state, particularly when they gut the UNC system and the Wake County school system.

            •  Really? (0+ / 0-)

              You think Republicans are intentionally sabotaging their state's education system to keep the state right of center? That's borderline conspiracy theory.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 02:58:30 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  No, you misread me (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, KingofSpades, Skaje

                I think they're intentionally sabotaging it because they want to privatize it and profit off it. That in doing so they will make the state less attractive to liberal out of state-ers is just a side benefit. There's no conspiracy theory about it. It isn't like with voter ID where the main point is hurting Democrats, but it's still one of the consequences and they know it.

                •  Oh, okay. That makes more sense. (0+ / 0-)

                  I still think it's farfetched but it's within the realm of possibility considering they want to make Christianity the official religion.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 04:05:53 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  It sounds logical to me (0+ / 0-)

                Not all conspiracies are fictional.

                The relationship may not be one-to-one, but the correlation is damn strong.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 03:03:30 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  CA AD 80: SurveyUSA finds close D vs. D race (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, itskevin, jj32

    For California legislature enthusiasts, SurveyUSA provides a rare treat: a public poll of an Assembly special election.  In the safely Democratic southern San Diego County based AD 80 that was vacated by Ben Hueso's election to the state Senate, labor leader Lorena Gonzalez leads former Chula Vista City Councilman Steve Castaneda 35%-32%.  Castaneda has a net 10 approval and Castaneda has a net 3, but neither is particularly well known.  The election is in six weeks.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 11:59:08 AM PDT

  •  CA Dem Convention Update (7+ / 0-)

    Been having an amazing time so far with the USC Dems!

    We went to a luncheon with State Assemblyman Richard Pan (D) from the Sac area who is famous for picking up a red seat in 2010.

    We also got to see a very enthusiastic speech for CA Dem Secretary and saw Gavin Newsom give a great speech and declare his support for pot legalization.

    I also ran into lordpet8!

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 03:43:02 PM PDT

    •  and me briefly! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Alibguy

      Richard Pan lunch was full by the time we arrived.  Gavin and Kamala both gave very strong speeches.

      Right now, my dream is:
      2016: Boxer retires, Harris to Senate.  Dave Jones becomes AG.
      2018: Chiang beats Newsom to take the Governorship.
                Solis or Swalwell replace DiFi.
      And Villaraigosa disappears from the face of the Earth.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 03:00:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That seems pretty possible (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Hope Harris gets the Senate in 2016, not sure if Boxer is going to retire then, Feinstein held on in 2012 when she was 80.

        Harris could try for Governor in 2018 or Senate then if Feinstein retires.

        I hope you are right though.

        For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

        by Alibguy on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 05:31:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  This is old news but Political Wire justed posted (4+ / 0-)

    about it so I'm not sure if it was posted here.

    Per Political Wire:

    Marcus Hook, PA Mayor Jay Schiliro (R) has dropped his bid for reelection "after he was arrested on charges he abused his position to imprison a 20-year-old man during a drunken, gun-wielding encounter at his home," the Delaware County Daily Times reports.

    "Authorities allege that late on the evening of Feb. 21, Schiliro contacted the young man by text message and had a police officer deliver him to his borough home. There... the mayor allegedly gave the young man alcohol and produced three firearms, one of which was fired into papers inside the house. During the encounter, the mayor repeatedly asked the young man if he could give him oral sex."

    Where do Republicans find these nutjob candidates?

    21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

    by gigantomachyusa on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 03:47:34 PM PDT

  •  Something interesting about Reid and Mike Lee (9+ / 0-)

    Apparently Harry Reid was Mike Lee's home teacher. Basically, a home teacher lets families be taught an LDS gospel principle once a month in their own homes. It's also a slightly nosey "so how are you guys doing" neighborly concern sort of religious volunteer job.

    But I find the idea of Bircherite Mike Lee being taught by Harry Reid of all people kind of hilarious.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 09:59:54 PM PDT

  •  been lurking on Redracinghorses (3+ / 0-)

    and there's a semi-new poster by the screename of indocon. He has been posting a lot recently (along with RyaninSEPA) about how the liberal idea of a welfare state isn't bad per se but can only work in a homogenous society.

    This sort of confirms my hypothesis that a lot of people believe that its not socialism when it benefits them. Take a look at Southgate, California. It was a heavily white and heavily working class community south of downtown LA.

    It was a heavily democrat voting area full of New Deal dems but swung heavily to the GOP in the early 60s when there was fear of encroachment among the black population on the other side of Alameda St.  The same thing happened in the bungalow belt communities of Chicago.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sat Apr 13, 2013 at 10:41:33 PM PDT

    •  Socialism is kind of like poetry (6+ / 0-)

      It means whatever you want it to mean.

    •  It's not just racial homogeneity though. (4+ / 0-)

      The welfare queen angsty stuff the GOP has always been pushing is of course race-baiting to some degree, but it's also a real fear that many people in the working class have-- that their hard-earned money goes towards people who just lay back and don't do anything and get almost as much money for it as they do.

      It's not even such a far-fetched idea-- here in Germany, long-term unemployment benefits, especially if you have a kid or two, add up to almost as much as a full-time menial worker will earn. That leads to resentment and it leads people away from leftist politics.

      •  But we've never had that kind of expansive (11+ / 0-)

        welfare state here in the US. We are very far from providing so much unemployment that it serves as a disincentive to finding more work.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 07:19:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  But, why is there resentment in Germany? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Is it because of the policy, or is it because a bunch of Turkish immigrants are seen to be benefiting.

        The New Deal was exceedingly popular in its day.  Very few seemed to show any resentment towards the programs.  Of course, they were specifically geared towards white people and left most non-whites out of the equation.

        Economics is a secondary reason for any resentment towards government programs.  The attacks always keep the idea of "those people" as non-specific as possible --they leave the specification of who those people are up to the creative mind of the targeted voter.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 11:23:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't buy the "very few" part (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Xenocrypt, DCCyclone

          A large minority loathed Roosevelt and the New Deal.  Not disliked, but loathed, kinda like the attitudes toward Obama (too bad Obama isn't otherwise more like Roosevelt).

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 11:37:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I read a book about Robert Wagner written decades (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            ago, and you really could just cut and paste the descriptions of some of the more paranoid attitudes of the New Deal era, and apply them more or less unchanged today.  (And the same, if I remember right, even for some of the descriptions of the Administration or of some of the schisms in the Democratic Party, although obviously there aren't any more segregationists.)

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

            by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 06:41:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, it's really a fear some people have (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That doesn't mean it's a legitimate one. A lot of people also believe global warming is a hoax.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 09:56:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  There's a book that discusses a similar idea. (4+ / 0-)

      "Us Against Them".  The thesis is that there's a trait of "ethnocentrism" that's independent from liberal/conservative ideology as such.  People who have a lot of it are more likely to support social programs that sound like they benefit "us" (like Social Security) but less likely to support social programs that sound like they benefit "them" (like food stamps).  Yglesias mentioned it and talks about it occasionally.  

      If I remember the book correctly, the General Social Survey or the American National Election Study asks people to numerically rate how "warmly" they feel towards different ethnic groups, and the authors defined "ethnocentrism" as the difference between how a respondent felt towards their own race and an average of other races.  While it was independent of ideology and political affiliation, I do think it was negatively correlated with level of education.

      The same authors wrote another interesting book, "Divided By Color", that discussed racial differences in political opinions and the "activation" of racial sentiments in the 1988 election.  I think.  Been a while since I read either one.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 10:33:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is basically how southern politics works (4+ / 0-)

      And it's all about a divide and conquer strategy by the wealthy elite and has been used throughout history. Were it not for ethnic resentment, the south would vote Democratic at a much higher rate. Basically it's the mentality of socialism for us and austerity for them.

      It really is a shame that the world isn't ethnically homogenous as ethnic groups usually don't go to war with themselves and it would be much easier to form a global government where you could much more easily tackle problems like climate change and poverty and apply the concept of economies of scale to a lot of sectors of the economy both private through open trade, and public through things like single payer and no tax havens. Unfortunately that will probably never happen, but it's fun to think of and has been a staple of sci fi such as Star Trek.

      •  The world of Star Trek (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike, James Allen

        is by no means ethnically homogenous though, even if you consider Earth alone.

      •  I agree in principle (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        but a homogenous world strikes me as very boring. You could also argue division breeds competition which breeds progress (as Jared Diamond says in Guns, Germs, and Steel regarding competition in Europe in the 1600s-1700s creating the modern world)

        21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

        by gigantomachyusa on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 01:21:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'll take boring over war any day of the week (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades, James Allen

          and I really don't buy that argument that division breeds competition which causes progress because ultimately that division leads to conflict too which causes more harm than good. Imagine if the United States were several ethnically different nations. Do you think that on the whole they would be as developed as we are today? I certainly don't. Just imagine how much easier it would be to conduct trade if we had uniform laws governing everything everywhere. Globalization would be both much more extensive and much fairer with transfer payments aiding the developing world tremendously. Just look at Europe, where they have no problem trying to tackle poverty and development in their own ethnically homogeneous country, but have a significantly difficult time trying to do the same in other EU states. Germany is the poster child for literally socialism for us, austerity for you.

      •  Not necessarily (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, Chachy, sacman701

        Somalia is overwhelmingly Somali, but despite the ethnic near-uniformity, differences in clan have been sufficient to power decades of fighting.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 01:35:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, I said usually (0+ / 0-)

          Somalia probably being the most extreme outlier given its degree of anarchy. In earlier eras of human history this was much more prevalent and not all ethnic groups have formed nation states (the several Arab states for example), but in general we've entered an age where nation states are well formed and when they're homogeneous, generally don't have civil wars (with Somalia and a few others like Korea being the exception).

          •  If you're gonna bring in civil war (0+ / 0-)

            most of it is not ethnic-based, is it? There were regional aspects to Libya's recent civil war, what with resentment of favoritism toward the western part of Libya by people in Benghazi.

            Also, there was no ethnic division between British Americans and Britons when the rebellion that created the US happened.

            I think that as long as there is private property, there will be some kind of division. If it's not ethnic, it can be clan, regional, religious, political, what have you.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 01:54:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  well my general .02 about the south is that race (0+ / 0-)

        is the symptom and not the disease. My opinion is that most of the racial resentment among some southerners is not towards minorities but among other white people (ACLU, NCC, NAACP) who they see as militarizing the blacks.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 03:05:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think there's very many Southerners (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY, Skaje, sapelcovits

          who dislike Blacks because of the ACLU.  That makes slightly less than zero sense.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 04:06:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  that's not what I necessarily mean (0+ / 0-)

            I mean that while they may dislike blacks, they dislike white liberal groups like the ACLU or the SPLC worse because they sort of see them as enablers.

            RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

            by demographicarmageddon on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 05:21:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  You're describing unreconstructed, vicious racism (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, Skaje, sapelcovits, sacman701

              Shades of the KKK attacking "scalawags" and "carpetbaggers" during Reconstruction and violent crowds of racists yelling "Nigger-lover!" at white supporters of black voting rights and desegregation in the 1960s and 70s. Apologies if anyone finds my use of the n-word ugly; the descriptions you're making are uglier. Of course, I don't blame you for describing what may remain an actual situation, but please understand what you are really describing. By "enablers," you mean whites who support blacks not "remaining in their place," from which they can be kept down and persecuted with absolute impunity. And to whites who have the attitude you describe, I say a big "fuck you" in the loudest possible voice.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 05:52:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  agreed (0+ / 0-)

                although the angle I was taking was more from a cold war anticommunist perspective where a lot of conservative whites may have felt that they were being persecuted by New York communists under the guise of civil rights.

                RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

                by demographicarmageddon on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 07:37:10 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I call bullshit on that (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Skaje

                  They considered civil rights activism communist because they were violently opposed to any change in the status quo. Therefore, they consider Cold Warrior Lyndon Johnson a communist.

                  And when you mention New York, you bring in anti-Semitism. "New york communists" in that context means "Jews." And boo-hoo-hoo on the Southern whites for feeling they were "persecuted" by being forced to share water fountains and train cars with blacks. Fuckin racist assholes!

                  Why are you being sympathetic to them? They are a dying bunch of reactionaries.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:30:41 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Blech. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Audrid, Skaje, bumiputera
        It really is a shame that the world isn't ethnically homogenous
        Sounds terrible. Just imagine how much worse the food would be! And the music. And the literature. And the art...

        But beyond that, I think it's a bit of a conceptually confused idea. There is, in a sense, a single global population, which we refer to as "humanity." "Ethnicity" is a term we use to refer to difference within that population. And, humans being what we are, those differences will always exist. So I don't think it's too bad that the world isn't ethnically homogenous; but what is a shame is that we reify these notions of difference into a mentality of otherization. I think that reification is a contingent fact of history, and something we have the potential to overcome - unlike ethnic difference, which we neither can nor should want to overcome completely.

    •  Ryan, for his part... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...made a clearly racist comment on RRH post-election, to the effect of saying racial minorities are dependent on government and not willing to try to succeed in life without it......that's not verbatim, it's been months since I read the comment so I don't remember exactly, but that was the gist of what he wrote.  So if he's saying now what you claim, that's amazingly ironic.

      As one would guess, that comment by Ryan got no pushback at all on that site.  It would be hide-rated to death here.

      As far as the broader point is concerned, it's nonsense.  Rivalry and community are twin conflicting features of human nature, and rivalry asserts itself in whatever form of tribal associations are available in a given period.  Race has been a dominant such association in America for centuries, but is very slowly subsiding as a basis of rivalry.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:27:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Question to individual Kossacks (4+ / 0-)

    Of the House freshman, who do you think has the most potential for higher office or House leadership? I would say it's a tie between Tulsi Gabbard, Raul Ruiz, and Joe Kennedy III (solely because of the Kennedy name of course, but eh). Runner-ups would be Hakeem Jeffries, Beto O'Rourke.

    On the GOP side, probably Tom Cotton

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 11:04:00 AM PDT

    •  Good question (6+ / 0-)

      I'd say Reps. Gabbard, Sean Maloney, and Swalwell for the Democrats (honorable mention: Reps. Horsford and Kennedy) and Reps. Cotton, Brooks, and Valadao for the Republicans (honorable mention: Reps. Bridenstine and Massie).

      •  Forgot Horsford (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He's the AA one from Nevada, right? Seems like a really smart guy, and competent enough to navigate Las Vegas politics.

        I'd dispute Swalwell , only because despite his defeat of Stark, he seems like a lightweight. Sean Maloney definitely seems like a rising star though, he's got good credentials.

        I was going to list those Republicans besides Cotton, but I had to finish my post and leave my computer mid-thought.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 03:40:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Massie? For leadership or higher office? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Unless all those Ron Paul local convention delegates actually did anything relevant, I don't see the Republican Caucus letting Massie anywhere near a formal leadership position.  But higher office?  A Paul/Massie Senate delegation would be something else, I'll give you that.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

        by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 09:29:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That's a really interesting question (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, betelgeux, bumiputera

      In addition to some of the ones you've mentioned, I think Ron DeSantis could go places.  He's young, in a safe seat, and popular with the Tea Party wing.  Ann Wagner also seems to have a lot of friends in high places.  

      On the Democratic side, Joaquín Castro I expect to hear a lot more from.  I can also see Matt Cartwright running statewide in the near future.  

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 11:14:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, Ann Wagner (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        for sure.  Cartwright might be too vocally liberal to go statewide in Pennsylvania.  I'll also add Mark Pocan.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 03:04:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know if this is a consideration (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Gygaxian

      but since Gabbard's district is about ~6000 miles from Washington that could make her leadership complicated.

      I would add Terri Sewell (D-AL) to that list.  Democrats would want to keep an African American in leadership after Clyburn retires.

    •  Raul Ruiz (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, betelgeux, Gygaxian

      Honorable mentions for Gabbard, Bustos, Kennedy III, and Patrick Murphy.

      For Republicans, Keith Rothfus, maybe Tom Cotton.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 12:34:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rothfus is a nutjob (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        he only won election because he was gift wrapped a seat. He's bad enough that if the courts draw a map in 2021, he could be screwed (or more likely merged with Murphy).

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:15:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The problem for Murphy is... (4+ / 0-)

        ...he's got a tough seat to really lock down.

        One thing about leadership is that you really can't do it without locking down your seat, so you don't have to worry about your own reelection.  Your voters have to be on your side completely.  Murphy is not going to get that for quite awhile, and very possibly never, in that seat.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:16:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He'll be lucky to win reelection (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          this area is trending fairly strongly Republican, both presidentially and downballot over the last two cycles. I think there's a strong chance that if he does win reelection he'll eventually run statewide, given that his seat is redder than the state.

        •  Yeah. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I had thought Hoyer started out in a swingier seat that got safer over time, but I could be wrong about that.  That's why I said leadership is probably a different list than higher office.  Although in some cases I could see either one happening, like Gabbard.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 09:07:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  And obviously (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Sinema, Gallego, or Maloney would have to lock their seats down, and while that's not a sure thing for any of them, I could see it happening.

          There's ideology too.  I think Jim Himes is rising in leadership (wasn't he named DCCC finance chair or something? ) but he seems to dissent pretty often, especially on fiscal issues,  and I don't think that's just out of electoral caution, the way Sinema's dissents pretty obviously are.  So that might put a ceiling on Himes' leadership potential, and I'd agree about Sewell.  (What is it about that district?)

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 09:18:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Himes' district (0+ / 0-)

            That district contains Greenwich, Connecticut. I believe it's one of the richest districts in the country. So don't assume Himes' dissents on fiscal issues are not politically necessary.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 09:28:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Um... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I am from CT-04, you know :-).  Although, I knew it had a big drop, but I didn't realize it was just D+3 in 2012.  (Obama way over-performed in Greenwich in 2008, and even almost won a precinct in Darien.  I don't know what the hell they were expecting, but I'm not surprised that dropped after actual stuff happened.)  

              But CT-04 and Fairfield County are complicated.  Fairfield County has the largest ratio between top-quintile and bottom-quintile income of any large metro area, last I checked.  There's a significant lower-income population in Bridgeport/Stratford/(some of) Stamford/Norwalk, and that's the Democratic base, along with Westport/Weston.

              Obviously Himes needs to keep his margins down elsewhere, since a vote is a vote, but I don't know how many of the $250,000+ crowd he'd lose that isn't already voting against him.  There are rich liberals in the district, but a lot of them are probably, well, liberal.  Still, that's speculation on my part.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

              by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 09:47:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Obama still overperformed in 2012 (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                over 2006-2012 the district was on average 6% more Republican than the state at just 52.4% Dem, and that's without Republicans winning anything other than 2006 gov during that period. The state itself was D+7 in 2012, so the district is certainly not safely D. So Himes has decent reason especially on fiscal issues to defect from the liberal position, but he's becoming pretty well entrenched. Chris Shays would have made it a tough race had he run in a 2010 rematch.

                •  Admittedly (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  the single most popular Republican in the district, running in the best year for Republicans in recent memory, might well have made it a tough race.  Still, I don't know how I feel about comparing averages from different races to the Presidential total.  It looks like CT-04 was about 3.5 points to the right of the state in Blumenthal/McMahon, too.  

                  27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

                  by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 10:03:37 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I forgot what district you were from (0+ / 0-)

                and was ignoring your sig. Yeah, I know: Bad Michael!

                I am somewhat familiar with the area, since I went to college at SUNY at Purchase, right across the border from Greenwich. We used to enjoy driving through Greenwich close to Christmastime, looking at the decorations outside of the rich people's mansions.

                I hear you on Bridgeport, but poor people generally turn out in lower percentages than richer people, and I figure Himes' calculation is that a few defections on taxes and such are likely to keep more votes away from his Republican opponent than they discourage poorer people from making. Also, don't ignore that Himes used to work for Goldman Sachs and may want to make more money in banking after he eventually retires from Congress. It's never a good idea to ignore rank self-interest among government officials.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 10:01:32 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Gallego (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            Is a member of the Blue Dogs and doesn't support same-sex marriage, so....

            Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

            by David Nir on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 09:59:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I was thinking higher office, not House leadership (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          He only needs to win reelection once to run for Senate. The FL Dem bench is relatively weak, and if Rubio runs for President, his path is that much easier.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 04:47:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I might say Pocan (5+ / 0-)

      for House Leadership.  He is only 48 and showed a great knack for working his way up the ranks for the WI assembly.   I think is already some sore of Whip as well.

      Social Democrat, WI-05

      by glame on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 12:41:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Following glame, I recall a study that claimed (7+ / 0-)

      that Representatives who had gotten to leadership positions as state legislators were more likely to get to leadership positions in Congress.  Kevin McCarthy was Republican Floor Leader in the California Assembly, and Steny Hoyer was Speaker of the Maryland House.

      That would maybe point to Kyrsten Sinema, who had some leadership position or other as a State Representative or as a State Senator.  (As a State Senator, it might have been partially by default--there weren't a lot of Democratic Arizona Senators left after 2010).  She's already an Assistant Whip.  So was Swalwell.  And so was Kildee.  Hopefully that's everyone.

      Has anyone else been named to anything?  There are four freshman class presidents: Delaney, Cartwright, Lujan Grisham, and Castro.  

      Back to state legislators:, There's Steven Horsford, who was Nevada Senate Majority Leader.

      And in Pete Gallego's long career in the Texas House, he chaired the Democratic Caucus at some point.

      This is more my sense of things, but I think for Leadership, you might want to pick people who have been good at "inside" politics, and for higher office, you might want to pick people who focused on "outside" politics.

      Nancy Pelosi, for example, was basically a lifelong political insider--a DNC member, a a DSCC finance chair, this kind of thing.  That's probably a similar skill set to rising in House leadership.  

      That might make me less likely to name someone like Raul Ruiz, however impressively he ran in 2012.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 03:10:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is a great and thorough examination (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, MichaelNY

        But I also think you might underestimate the potential of the few members who do not have the long-standing connections who might do well. Bera, Ruiz, and others.

        There are a few also which do have the connections but that I am inclined to not think have great further potential: Cartwright, Delaney, Lujan Grisham, and Swalwell all seem to be to be the type of settle into their office and be relative backbenchers.

        But, if you can point me to the study I'd love to give it a read because if this is pretty much true (which I can imagine it is) it says alot about Castro's and Gallego's potential nationally (and the ones above that I discount).

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 05:15:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Alibguy

          I can certainly imagine Bera and Ruiz doing well in some sense--becoming secure in their districts, making legislative contributions.  (Although even then, experience might help.  Waxman and Burton were both forces in the CA Assembly before they ever got to Congress.)  

          Maybe even statewide office, although CA isn't the easiest place for a House member to get statewide recognition.  At least that's what people say--Boxer was a House member.  (I think she had some recent media recognition thanks to her famous protest against the Senate Judiciary Committee during the Hill hearings.  And Boxer had been a county legislator, and I've heard she was connected to Burton as well.)

          But I was thinking about the specific question of who was likely to attain a formal leadership position in the Democratic caucus.  And who knows?  But I wouldn't particularly name Bera or Ruiz for that particular thing (nor, actually, Delaney, Lujan Grisham, Cartwright, or Swalwell--I just mentioned them for completeness).

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 05:29:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  O'Rourke is a total and complete lightweight (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, DCCyclone

      I'd be surprised if he holds that seat more than a a few terms.

      Kennedy, Ruiz, Castro, Jeffries, Horsford, Maloney, and Gallego are really the biggest Democratic freshman names that are likely to stay long-term in the House.

      Gabbard is a potential if she decides to stay in the House, but I expect her to move to a higher level be it Senate or another office.

      Echoing Xenocrypt, I'll note that Gallego was not just two seats away from becoming majority leader in the Texas House after the 2008 cycle, but that he also chaired MALC (the Mexican American Legislative Caucus), which is one of the most prestigiou bodies of Mexican American legislative thought in the country, and is also on the board of directors of NALEO (National Association of Latino Elected Officials), another important institution for Latinos in this country.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 05:11:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kennedy almost for sure (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But he's a Kennedy, so that's a given. Besides him, the younger they are the more likely they'll move up, so Gabbard and Swalwell are both pretty safe bets too.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 12:18:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Venezuala's Presidential election is today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KyleinWA

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/...

    It pits Acting President Nicolas Maduro against opposition candidate Henrique Capriles.  Polls show Maduro winning but apparently it has been getting closer.  We should expect results at about 7:00 Central time I believe.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 11:08:59 AM PDT

  •  NH-Sen: Scott Brown (6+ / 0-)

    refuses to rule anything in or out; Rove encourages a run. This was on Fox News Sunday.

    "Yeah, I'm not going to comment on that, obviously," Brown said. "I think it's important to continue to do my job here and challenge people to do things better."

    "Nothing's off the table and nothing's on the table," Brown continued. ...

    "This guy is a ninth-generation New Hampshirian," Rove said, smiling broadly. "That's the dirty little secret. His mother lives there."

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    This kinda suggests to me that Rove and the establishment may think it's critical to put more states in play to win the senate. And they see Shaheen as a virtual lock without some sort of shakeup in the race, even if it's a high-risk one like this.

    This should definitely give a boost to Shaheen's fundraising, long before any Brown candidacy could get off the ground. At the same time, that could take fundraising dollars away from other Dem candidates, should Brown decide not to run (which I suspect is likely).

  •  Former Ohio Congressman Charlie Wilson dies (12+ / 0-)

    http://www.timesleaderonline.com/...

    Former Ohio Congressman Charlie Wilson has passed away in a Florida hospital following complications associated with a stroke suffered in February. Congressman Wilson passed this afternoon at 2:30 EST with his family by his side.
    Very sorry to hear it.  RIP.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 03:10:25 PM PDT

  •  France gerrymanders entire world. (15+ / 0-)

    How cool is this?  I only read last night that basically the entire planet is divided into French legislative districts to represent French citizens living abroad.  

    The U.S. is in, uh, FR-OS-1, I guess you can call it, or the First constituency for French residents overseas.  It covers all of the U.S. and Canada.  (Ok, technically I suppose it just covers French citizens who live there, but don't spoil my fun.)

    A socialist, Corinne Narassiguin, of New York City (it looks like), won FR-OS-1 in 2012:

    In the second round, Narassiguin won by a comfortable margin, in what was described as an "incredible" win for the left. The constituency had been deemed a safe seat for the right. Commentators in Libération pointed to Narassiguin's strong and active campaign, and suggested that rightwing voters had rejected UMP candidate Frédéric Lefebvre, who spoke little English and was perceived as knowing little about North America.[28]
    However, her election was thrown out "due to irregularities in the funding of her electoral campaigns."  

    So now there's going to be a special election.  Whoever wants the seat should start campaigning...across all of the U.S. and Canada.  Come on, you don't want to be Martha Coakley!  You'd better be shaking hands outside of all the stadiums.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 03:30:38 PM PDT

  •  Just a reminder (0+ / 0-)

    Don't embed YouTube music links.  Slows down our computers :)

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 04:05:08 PM PDT

  •  Life update (9+ / 0-)

    My anxiety levels have fallen significantly ever since I kind of ditched the idea of going to grad school. I figured that if I don't think about that, I won't worry so much about my GPA.

    I also figured that the worst-case scenario is that I don't graduate college, in which case I still can find a job since I've graduated high school.

    Of course, I still have to figure out how to deal with my parents' expectations. Meh.

    •  Now, to deal with having a straight crush. /grumpy (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, sapelcovits
      •  As a guy who suffered emotional turbelence... (10+ / 0-)

        ...in college myself, take it from me, these days of your life aren't worth the scope of anxiety you let yourself feel.  Yeah, I know, there might be stuff going on that needs to be treated......I spent a week in a mental unit of a hospital once in college and was for a time on antidepressants and even had suicidal thoughts at times.  And I struggled with alcoholism for years after that (been sober nearly 16 years now).  But life works out if you work at it honestly and surround yourself with supportive people, especially if some of them have what you want and by example can teach you how to get there.  No I'm not gay so that's one thing I never had to deal with, but big deal, many of us have our own struggles to fit in for different reasons.

        Out of all this I'm guessing you end up graduating from college and finding a job, and somewhere along the line you'll probably get stuck in a job you hate or lose a job you love, that's the next stage of struggle (outside romance, that is).  And you'll come out of that OK, too, even if it doesn't seem like it at the time.

        Like Tom Hanks' character said in Castaway, your job is to just keep breathing.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 07:58:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The story about the McConnell taping gets stranger (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    and stranger. The person that said he spoke to the persons allegedly taping the McConnell meeting seems to be backtracking.
    http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    And by the way, Jacob Conway is not related to Jack Conway. And it seems may have had previous ties to the Log Cabin Republicans.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 05:14:38 PM PDT

  •  FL-GOV: Some Dems worry about Crist as (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, Darth Jeff, MichaelNY, betelgeux

    the nominee, and want Sen. Bill Nelson instead.

    Apparently, Nelson is considering it, but is leaning against the idea.

    link.

    If Nelson could pick his replacement(say, Kathy Castor), we'd have a special election in 2016. So it might not be the worst thing in the world.

    But I wonder if the Dem fears about Crist are exaggerated. Namely that Scott could use his money to make Crist unacceptable.

  •  Oh man oh man, please gift us this seat (10+ / 0-)

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    Joe Miller launching exploratory committee (do those even exist at the senatorial level?)

  •  Kind of down in the dumps politically (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid

    I want so badly to help progressives in my state, and I have so many ideas to try and empower Utah Dems, but I also have many limitations:

    1) I can't drive, and have trouble securing other transportation for anything other than school or my job.

    2) I have college classes and a job, which cuts down on my time.

    3) The most contact I have with anybody affiliated with Utah Dems is FB posts and perhaps a phone call or two (and a day of volunteering last year at the Utah Dem state convention). Also, I am bad at calling people on the phone.

    I'm frustrated, but I really want to help. I want to help elect good Utah Dems, and at least shake up the hopeless, half-hearted attempts that they've put up these last few years. Anyone have any suggestions?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:11:31 PM PDT

    •  Is there any way you can help out (0+ / 0-)

      with backroom stuff, like administration?

      •  I could, but (0+ / 0-)

        I don't know much about administrative duties, and again, transportation would be an issue, since I wouldn't always be able to get to the office in which administrative duties would presumably take place.

        Unless there's some kind of administrative political job that I can do from home (or close to public transportation).

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:32:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't imagine there's good public transport (0+ / 0-)

          where you live?

          •  Well, there is TRAX (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Audrid

            Which goes across the Wasatch Valley, and does go right in front of West Jordan City Hall (which may well have more general political buildings around it), but I'm unsure of where it specifically stops. It's not very quick and has relatively few stops. There's also the FLEX bus, which has very specific stops at (from what I can tell) somewhat random street corners. It's mostly for people who can't drive.

            I also have trouble walking in commercial areas, as one of the manifestations of my Asperger's Syndrome makes me utterly terrified of crossing busy, wide streets. I'm fine in residential areas, as those are tightly clustered and there's less room for quickly moving groups of cars. I just have an intense phobia of crossing a busy street while cars are on the road.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:44:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Maybe you could ride a bike? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Gygaxian

              I hear you, my anxiety disorder stops me from even learning how to drive.

              •  Oh I do have a adult bike (technically a tricycle) (0+ / 0-)

                (balance issues hooray), but that runs into YET ANOTHER problem I have; lack of direction and inability to navigate effectively. I once got lost in an unfamiliar part of my own neighborhood.

                Thankfully I have a handheld GPS now, but my lack of navigational ability is still a problem.

                I can walk short distances though, and if I'm going to live in crowded Salt Lake City (a probable course of action in the future), I'm probably going to be able to walk anywhere there.

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:51:57 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  And I was thinking more of netroots organizing (0+ / 0-)

                  which I could probably do fairly well.

                  Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                  by Gygaxian on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:58:57 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  "netroots organizing" (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, jncca, Audrid, askew

                    is vastly overrated.  If you could do data or in-person stuff it would be much more helpful.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 11:29:36 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Fair enough (0+ / 0-)

                      It's just that doing in-person actives that require me to obtain transport are difficult for me, as I've explained.

                      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                      by Gygaxian on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 11:59:33 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  well (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Audrid

                        take it from someone with generalized anxiety disorder: it is difficult, and it can be very painful, but don't let it limit you in basic necessities like transportation.  Let it limit you in ways that don't interfere with the essentials.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 07:00:32 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

  •  working on a diary of Texas using an algorithm (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff

    form of redistricting for the legislature. I just finished the Lower House. Here is my breakdown:

    1 district where McCain got in the 80s
    25 districts where McCain got in the 70s
    46 districts where McCain got in the 60s
    21 districts where McCain got in the 50s
    19 districts where McCain got in the 40s
    20 districts where McCain got in the 30s
    13 districts where McCain got in the 20s
    4 districts where McCain got in the 10s
    1 district where McCain got in the single digits

    Texas seems to have a lot of political variation.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sun Apr 14, 2013 at 08:12:37 PM PDT

    •  what is the algorithm? (0+ / 0-)

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 12:18:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  basically the K means one (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        aamail6

        which takes into account population density and means that a district does not meander too much. So a district stretching from McKinney to Highland Park wouldn't pass muster.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Mon Apr 15, 2013 at 12:25:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  OH-06: Sad news from Ohio (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betelgeux

    Former Rep. Charlie Wilson has passed away at age 70.

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