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Leading Off:

NRCC: So explain this one to me:

Screen shot of headline from Roll Call story reading: NRCC Raises $14.4 Million at Annual March Dinner
Okay, fine, but:
Screen shot of headline from Roll Call story reading: NRCC Raises $8.1 Million in March but Trails DCCC
So what's going on here? Is the NRCC counting mere pledges that never came through—$6,300,000 worth? Perhaps they're just snowing the media... or maybe their new finance guys came over from Mitt Romney's data shop and are steeped in Karl Rove's "the math." I guess I'd believe anything.

Senate:

MN-Sen/Gov: For once, a politician has moved up a timetable rather than let one slide. After previously saying he would decide this summer, GOP Rep. John Kline announced on Friday that he would not run for either senator or governor and would instead seek re-election. That's good news for Sen. Al Franken and Gov. Mark Dayton, though the DCCC would surely have liked it if Kline had left his swingy 2nd District seat open. However, two Democrats are already looking to challenge Kline, CaringBridge founder Sona Mehring and 2012 nominee Mike Obermueller, so he'll still certainly have a race on his hands.

OH-Sen: Unsurprisingly, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, the first sitting Republican senator to express his support for same-sex marriage, has seen his job approval rating slip in Quinnipiac's latest poll, but the party breakdowns are telling. Overall, Portman dropped from 44-24 in February to 40-31 now, slipping 19 net points among Republicans and 16 among independents. But he actually improved 5 net points among Democrats, to a surprisingly high 29-34. That's not the kind of thing that's likely to last, especially since Portman isn't up for re-election until 2016, but it does demonstrate that Republicans can potentially pay a price for backing marriage equality.

But there's a much greater price to be paid down the road for Republicans who don't get on board with equality. Quinnipiac now sees a plurality of Ohioans supporting same-sex marriage, 48-44, up from 45-47 against in December. That's a lot of movement in less than half a year, so it may just be noise. But Portman's very public conversion might have also swayed some minds, and in any event, as everyone knows, attitudes are changing very quickly on this topic.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: With Republican recruitment for New Hampshire's bi-annual gubernatorial election looking a bit thin, here's a new name for you. Relying on two unnamed sources, James Pindell says that state Sen. Andy Sanborn met with RGA officials in Washington, DC recently, though Sanborn himself is refusing to comment. And like many of the other GOP names under discussion for higher office in the Granite State, Sanborn could also run for Senate or the House.

NM-Gov: Yet another Democratic legislator says he's considering a run against Gov. Susana Martinez. State Sen. Howie Morales joins the very large pack of New Mexico lawmakers who are looking at a bid, which at last count includes three fellow state senators—Linda Lopez, Tim Keller, and Joe Cervantes—as well as state Rep. Moe Maestas. The only declared candidate so far, though, is Attorney General Gary King.

House:

CA-31: Ex-Rep. Joe Baca seems like one of those guys who is very good at telling stories to himself. In a new interview with the National Journal's Scott Bland, Baca claims he was "overwhelmingly asked by members of the community to run because they felt Pete Aguilar"—the top Democratic recruit who had already announced his candidacy—"was not a viable candidate." Notably, Aguilar doesn't name a single "member of the community by name," and of course, there remains the fact that the DCCC badly wanted Aguilar to run a second time, so this tale is hard to buy.

But when it comes to GOP Rep. Gary Miller, the man Democrats are trying to unseat, Baca's just absolutely full of it. Baca offered fulsome praise for Miller last year, when he faced Republican state Sen. Bob Dutton in the November general election, and was featured prominently in a Miller mailer. Now, of course, this history is posing a great deal of difficulty for Baca, so he's started making stuff up:

However, Baca also backed away from the mailer. The former congressman said he did not give the pro-Miller quotes that appear on the piece. "That's not my quote, that's his quote," Baca said. "That's Gary."

Miller's 2012 campaign manager, Chris Marsh, wrote in an email that "the quote in the mailer was absolutely approved by Congressman Baca back in October when the piece ran" and noted that Baca hadn't raised any issues with the mailer until now.

Even without the campaign manager's statement, you'd know Baca had to be lying simply because no congressman in his right mind would ever make up statements and attribute them to another congressman, particularly one from the other party, plaster them all over a flyer and mail it out to thousands of people. Gary Miller may be a lot of things, but there's no way he's that dumb. What's more, news accounts last year reported that "Baca and Miller repeatedly praised one another and emphasized their strong working relationship." Example:
"They want to see us working together," Baca, D-Rialto, said of the Inland area's residents and voters. "(He) and I are going to send a message: We can be effective; we can put partisanship aside," Baca said.
So not only did Baca go out of his way to support a Republican, he's also lying about it now. Aguilar should be able to make lots of hay out of this. Simply put, do Democrats want to put forth a candidate who had nothing but good things to say about his Republican opponent until two weeks ago? I doubt it.

SC-01: The DCCC has filed their independent expenditure report for their new ad attacking Republican ex-Gov. Mark Sanford, and indeed, it's for the full $208,000 that was originally reported on Thursday. That doesn't mean there won't be further buys; if anything, I'd say we're more likely than not to see additional spending here.

Other Races:

NYC Mayor: Quinnipiac's first mayoral poll to include ex-Rep. Anthony Weiner in the Democratic primary looks very similar to Marist's from just a few days earlier. Indeed, Weiner jumps out with an identical 15 percent, while City Council Speaker Christine Quinn remains in first with 28, not far off the 26 Marist gave her. Bill de Blasio, Bill Thompson, and John Liu are also all bunched up, at 11, 10, and 9 percent respectively.

However, Weiner is nevertheless quite unpopular. He's the only Democrat to chalk up a negative favorability rating, at 33-41, and he also performs the worst against Republican Joe Lhota, 51-26. (All the other contenders take 55 to 60 versus Lhota.) In spite of this, 41 percent of New York City voters say Weiner should run for mayor while 44 say he should not, which is better than I'd have expected. It also demonstrates how soft support for most of the declared candidates might actually be, since Democrats want him in by a 45-40 margin, even though only 15 percent currently say they'd vote for him. That kind of political confusion is not uncommon in polling, but it's noteworthy nevertheless that some voters can't say with certitude whom they're supporting.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  NRCC Fundraising. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NancyWH, Pilotshark

    Could it be that they collected more than the allowed maximum, so the extra has to go to various state parties?

    It's still a lie, but it could be cleared up with a single question from a journamalist.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 05:19:37 AM PDT

  •  The Cons are not good with money. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NancyWH, wishingwell, llywrch, Woody

    You know that car that ended up in the ditch? That was daddy's car. The Cons that go into politics are rich kids that aren't good at anything but asking for the keys to the family car and a few bucks to tide them over ...........

    The idea that a dollar is a debt really freaks them out. They don't want to hear about owing. "Owing" is a word missing its other "n." Membership in the ownership society means never having to owe.

    We organize governments to deliver services and prevent abuse.

    by hannah on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 05:23:22 AM PDT

  •  I'm hoping that Weiner is essentially... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NancyWH, brook, Woody

    ...a rabbit in the contest, forcing likely Primary participants to re-examine the other candidates.

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 05:58:31 AM PDT

    •  I doubt it changes much (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      I think Quinn was the favorite, and remains the favorite now.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 06:18:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ethnic politics (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aufklaerer

      Christine Quinn is a red-headed, gay-married, Irish-American woman.

      Bill de Blasio is an Italian-American man married to a black woman.

      Bill Thompson is a black man with West Indian-American grandparents.

      Liu is an Asian-American born in Taiwan.

      Anthony Weiner's candidacy would presume a base of voters who will support him simply because he's Jewish.

      And I suppose that a candidate with a Spanish-speaking heritage could get 11, 10, or 9% in a poll today.

      Not that much has changed since Nathan Glazer and Daniel Patrick Moynihan wrote Beyond the Melting Pot: The Negroes, Puerto Ricans, Jews, Italians and Irish of New York City, about the ethnic politics of NYC.

      At this time, there's no harm in having candidates proudly supported by their ethnic kinsmen.

      Things could quickly get very ugly, as they have before, alas, if the runoff devolves into a white candidate vs a black one.

    •  TweedleDum, Dum, Dum, Dum ... and Dum (0+ / 0-)

      I haven't chosen a candidate. Like the majority of New Yorkers, I don't own a car. So I'm interested in public transit as well as pedestrian safety, bicycle lanes, and public plazas.

      I also want a Mayor who'll fire Police Chief Ray Kelly to end the racist stop-and-frisk policies.

      (Weiner won't be that candidate (alas, because I think he could win) because he puts cars ahead of humans using the streets, and iirc he has supported Ray Kelly's stop-and-frisk.)

      None of the candidates has broken from the pack. No one emphasizes transportation for all over more parking for drivers. So far as I know, none have declared against stop-and-frisk. In fact, not one of them has a distinguishing issue from the others.

      At this point the race is TweedleDee1 vs TweedleDee2 vs TweedleDee3 vs TweedleDee4, now with TweedleDee5 pondering a run. They are all competent enuff and likeable enuff. If they didn't have ethnic differences, they wouldn't have any differences to matter.

      No wonder there's many undecideds and much soft support.

  •  Simple, the NRCC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NancyWH

    calculated in both "fractional reserve banking dollars," and "real money," in the belief that when the hyperflation ultimately hits by the 2014 election, the real value will only be the amount of gold that could have been purchased with it in Q1 2013.

    / gold is down.

    Difficult, difficult, lemon difficult.

    by Loge on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 06:05:16 AM PDT

  •  You know what they say about honor among theives: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NancyWH, blue aardvark, cybersaur

    At least theives are semi-honest; Karl Rove is s pudgy ball of pure evil.

    Just doing my part to piss off right wing nuts, one smart ass comment at a time.

    by tekno2600 on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 06:08:56 AM PDT

  •  Mebbe Reinhart and Rogoff have become... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NancyWH, llywrch, Woody

    the accountants for the NRCC? If so, better call:

                  HERNDON ASH & POLLIN

    Ridding Spreadsheets of Hidden Allergans

    NEW PALINDROMIC METAPHOR MEANING TO MAKE A PREDICTION THAT IS ASTOUNDINGLY OFF TARGET: "Pull a Gallup!" As in: "The weatherman said yesterday would be sunny and mild, but we got a foot of snow! Boy, did he pull a Gallup!"

    by Obama Amabo on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 06:12:19 AM PDT

  •  It is Reinhart-Rogoff math (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NancyWH

    /nt

    We only think nothing goes without saying.

    by Hamtree on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 06:12:35 AM PDT

  •  Total donations versus donations they (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NancyWH

    can legally accept. $6.3M in foreign money.

    Economics is a social *science*. Can we base future economic decisions on math?

    by blue aardvark on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 06:21:26 AM PDT

  •  This surprises you? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DGreenCPA

    And by the way, your links are reversed...

  •  $14,400,000 - $8,100,000 = Rove's cut (0+ / 0-)

    Sunday mornings are more beautiful without Meet the Press.

    by deben on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 06:45:26 AM PDT

  •  The missing millions are (0+ / 0-)

    the bundler's 'commissions' and 'finder's fees'.

    We have only just begun and none too soon.

    by global citizen on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 06:58:42 AM PDT

  •  Ha ha, let's laugh at those Rs - even though (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    They absolutely run the whole show. Keeping the entire economy down, getting the President to offer the safety net cuts they've wanted for years, daily pushing through more and more anti-abortion and anti-health laws, completely shutting down any hope for even the slightest gun control laws, stopping the President from putting through any of his picks for judges in federal courts, federal agencies (making sure these agencies remain powerless), and even many of his Cabinet picks. Changing voting laws all over the country to disenfranchise the poor, college students, and the elderly, using their tools on the Supreme Court to probably nullify the Voting Rights Act, committing blatantly fraudulent acts of gerrymandering to keep themselves in power in the House and deny the will of the people, etc. etc. etc. It's great to totally run the entire country, but not to be answerable to how they do.

    But let's point and laugh at how irrelevant they've become!

    "We are not going to give up on destroying the health care system for the American people." - future President Paul Ryan.

    by Fordmandalay on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 07:23:29 AM PDT

  •  Or maybe they're simply lying, because that's what (0+ / 0-)

    the GOP does.  Just as birds fly and fish swim.

  •  ?? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    antooo, aufklaerer
    Notably, Aguilar doesn't name a single "member of the community by name," and of course, there remains the fact that the DCCC badly wanted Aguilar to run a second time, so this tale is hard to buy.
    Shouldn't that be Baca instead of Aguilar?

    “Reason must be our last judge and guide in everything.”~John Locke

    by sfsteach on Mon Apr 22, 2013 at 08:12:56 AM PDT

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