In a period of boredom, I decided to see if I could redistrict Georgia fairly. At the time, I had relatively simple objectives: obey communities-of-interest, prevent ridiculous sprawling of districts, maintain three VAP majority-black districts (which are all centered around Atlanta) and making Sanford Bishop's southwest rural Georgia district majority-black without doing a racial gerrymander (as in avoiding cutting counties viciously and numerous tendrils).
I put my draft map up on the Daily Kos Elections Live Blogs on May 7th and 8th to get feedback in order to make adjustments and fine tune my map before publication. I received helpful pointers from users Stephen Wolf, jncca, and sacman701 and applied their suggestions to get the final draft.
First, some background. A big part of the reason for the fall of the old coalitions of the Georgia Democratic Party had been the astronomical rise of suburbanization in the state around Atlanta from the 70's to the 90's, with large growth flanking that time range. Fueled by migration and white flight, those suburbs were largely and increasingly Republican (especially the exurbs). Democrats tried to mitigate this in 1991 and 2001 redistricting, but were foiled in the first attempt due to underestimating the new Republican areas and were foiled in the next attempt due to a Republican landslide in Georgia in 2002 and was iced in 2004 with Larios v. Cox, which invalidated the new state legislature maps. Republicans won the State House in 2004 (after winning the State Senate in 2002) and were able to redraw everything.
I found out while redistricting that there is a growing Democratic power in the suburbs of Atlanta over the past decade (namely Cobb, Henry, Rockdale, Douglas, Newton and Gwinnett Counties). Most of this has been because of massive African-American growth (either from gentrification or the recent reverse of the Great Migration that seems to be happening on a small scale). To give you an idea of this, let's compare Henry County's (suburban county directly south of DeKalb County) demographics and Presidential vote in 2000 and 2012 (using the 2000 and 2010 Census, respectively):
2000
Pop.: 119,341
81% White, 15% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
66% Bush/31% Gore
2012
Pop.: 203,922
53% White, 36% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
51% Romney/48% Obama
Gwinett County also is an interesting case as all non-white races (black, Hispanic, Asian) jumped very suddenly from 2000 to 2010 while the white population actually contracted. It was also a county Obama did better in, percentage-wise, in 2012 versus 2008, as was Henry County. In 2011 redistricting, Republicans had to protect their suburban districts by drawing them into dark red areas. With a fair map, Democrats get far more opportunities and could potentially win a majority of Georgia's 14 Congressional districts.
More below the fold.
Statewide
GA-01: Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ranger)
VAP: 87.8% White, 7.4% Hispanic, 2.9% Black, 0.8% Asian
23.9% Obama/75.0% McCain; estimated PVI: R+30
31.8% Avg D/68.2% Avg R
A north fringe district that avoids suburbs and exurbs is pretty much a given in a fair map. This district is in some of the reddest area of the whole state. To give you an idea, Rabun County, which is in this district, was the place where they filmed "Deliverance."
SAFE R
GA-02: OPEN
VAP: 77.9% White, 13.7% Black, 6.0% Hispanic, 1.1% Asian
29.6% Obama/69.3% McCain; estimated PVI: R+24
34.1% Avg D/65.9% Avg R
This Rome and exurb-based district is up the alley of Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, but he lives in Grantville. But seeing as how he's drawn into a majority-black district (we'll get to that later), he'll move or run here if he wants to stay in office.
SAFE R
GA-12: Rep. John Barrow (D-Augusta), Rep. Paul Broun (R-Athens)
VAP: 59.4% White, 32.7% Black, 4.2% Hispanic, 2.3% Asian
50.2% Obama/49.1% McCain; estimated PVI: R+3
50.8% Avg D/49.2% Avg R
Plucky Democrat John Barrow, currently the only white Democrat in the Deep South (though one could argue for the inclusion of Mike McIntyre, despite being from North Carolina), gets a district that makes the most sense. In the 2001 Democratic gerrymander, they drew a district that ran the length from Athens, through Augusta, and ending in Savannah. Unfortunately, the 2002 Democratic candidate was tarred with scandal and was beaten by conservative Republican Max Burns. John Barrow, then an Athens-Clarke consolidated county councilman, ran in 2004 and beat Rep. Burns. In 2005 re-redistricting, Republicans cut out Athens, but kept in the black population of Savannah because Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Savannah) wanted a safe district. John Barrow moved to Savannah and ran again, beating Max Burns' comeback attempt, gliding through 2008, and won solidly in 2010. In 2011 redistricting, Republicans went further and cut out Savannah from the 12th and left it as a conservative district (where McCain got 58%) where the only real blue area left was Augusta and Burke County. He went up against an anemic challenge in Republican State Rep. Lee Anderson in 2012 (who didn't show up for debates and ran only 4 cheap TV ads) and won 54-46, joining Mike McIntyre and Jim Matheson in successfully foiling an aggressive gerrymander against them. It also helped that Barrow made some talked-about ads with his drawl turned up to 10.
In this district I drew, he is drawn together with Paul Broun (who is running for Senate in 2014 so he's gone) and Barrow gets his ancestral home of Athens back. You could probably call this an ideal map for Barrow as it's Democratic enough for him to hold indefinitely, but not so much that he is vulnerable in a primary. In retrospect, it's kinda unusual that Athens, a white-majority liberal bastion in Gerogia, produced a Democrat who made the above ads and has been on progressive blogs' sh*t list for years, but then again Athens also produced ultraconservative wingnut Paul Broun.
LIKELY D with John Barrow; Tilt D otherwise
GA-13: OPEN
VAP: 69.9% White, 24.1% Black, 3.2% Hispanic, 1.6% Asian
35.1% Obama/64.3% McCain; estimated PVI: R+19
38.7% Avg D/61.3% Avg R
Although no incumbent lives here, I guess Lynn Westmoreland could run here if he wanted to. It's the remnants of central Georgia after the other districts have their way with it. I think Erick Erickson lives here (I think he lives in the conservative parts of Bibb County that weren't drawn in with the 9th, which we'll get to later).
SAFE R
Now we're done with the districts that are best shown from the statewide view. Let's zoom in to a few regions and analyze the other districts.
Atlanta Metro
GA-03: Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville)
VAP: 46.5% White, 23.0% Black, 19.3% Hispanic, 9.4% Asian
45.6% Obama/53.6% McCain; estimated PVI: R+7
42.4% Avg D/57.6% Avg R
Although Woodall is secure for now, Gwinnett County is continuing to diversify and Obama outperformed 2008 here.
LIKELY R, for now
GA-04: Rep. Tom Price (R-Roswell)
VAP: 68.4% White, 11.5% Black, 8.0% Hispanic, 10.3% Asian
38.1% Obama/61.0% McCain; estimated PVI: R+15
34.1% Avg D/65.9% Avg R
This district isn't much changed. It contains northernmost Fulton County, Kennesaw, Duluth, and Suwanee. I believe this is Gingrich's old Congressional district.
SAFE R
GA-05: Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-Marietta)
VAP: 52.4% White, 28.7% Black, 12.7% Hispanic, 4.3% Asian
52.3% Obama/46.9% McCain; estimated PVI: EVEN
48.5% Avg D/51.5% Avg R
Now this is where things get interesting. This district takes in the near suburbs of Atlanta on the northwest and north ends. The black communities in Cobb County are no longer carved out like before and Gingrey will have a tough race on his hands, but he's running for Senate. Any good candidates?
LEAN D
GA-06: Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Lithonia)
VAP: 36.0% White, 50.1% Black, 7.9% Hispanic, 4.4% Asian
75.3% Obama/24.1% McCain; estimated PVI: D+23
72.7% Avg D/27.8% Avg R
Hank Johnson gets a district that takes in most of DeKalb County and ventures out to suburban Conyers and exurban Covington. It no longer takes the Latino-heavy village of Pinckneyville and Norcross out of Gwinnett County. Like all African-American majority districts in Georgia, it's projected the black percentage of this district will only
increase.
SAFE D
GA-07: Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta)
VAP: 34.9% White, 52.4% Black, 7.1% Hispanic, 3.9% Asian
73.1% Obama/26.3% McCain; estimated PVI: D+21
70.3% Avg D/29.7% Avg R
This district is what it should be, a partial Atlanta and southern suburb district. David Scott's real district (the 13th) does this, but meanders through southernmost Fulton County to take in the blue parts of Douglas and Cobb County. This district has more of Atlanta, makes use of Henry County's booming black population and takes in Griffin in Spalding County. Fun fact: David Scott is a brother-in-law of Hank Aaron.
SAFE D
GA-08: Rep. John Lewis (D-Atlanta); Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Grantville)
VAP: 40.7% White, 50.1% Black, 5.4% Hispanic, 2.3% Asian
63.2% Obama/36.3% McCain; estimated PVI: D+10
Civil rights legend John Lewis' district becomes the least Democratic of the three Atlanta metro black-majority districts (in the real map, it's David Scott's D+9 district) by taking in all of Coweta and Fayette counties, drawing him together with Rep. Westmoreland (who surely wouldn't run here).
SAFE D
GA-14: Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville)
VAP: 79.1% White, 6.8% Black, 10.1% Hispanic, 2.9% Asian
23.4% Obama/75.7% McCain; estimated PVI: R+31
25.6% Avg D/74.4% Avg R
This suburban-exurban district is the reddest district in the whole state, even redder than the far north one.
SAFE R
Let's move to the southern reaches of the state for the final three districts.
South Georgia
GA-09: Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany)
VAP: 44.1% White, 50.1% Black, 3.8% Hispanic, 0.9% Asian
58.9% Obama/40.7% McCain; estimated PVI: D+6
60.4% Avg D/39.6% Avg R
Stephen Wolf helped me make this VAP black-majority and I copied his take on how the district should be (his full map is excellent, btw). Bishop's real district fell just short of VAP black-majority due to sloppy redistricting. This corrects that problem, mainly by taking in the black community in Macon. It's a largely rural district that Bishop almost lost in 2010 only to outperform Obama here in 2012.
LIKELY D
GA-10: Rep. Austin Scott (R-Tifton)
VAP: 67.8% White, 24.2% Black, 5.9% Hispanic, 0.9% Asian
34.6% Obama/64.8% McCain; estimated PVI: R+20
40.8% Avg D/59.2% Avg R
Austin Scott gets a fully safe district in southernmost Georgia (most of it contained south of the Altamaha River).
SAFE R
GA-11: Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Savannah)
VAP: 60.5% White, 31.6% Black, 4.8% Hispanic, 1.7% Asian
46.3% Obama/53.1% McCain; estimated PVI: R+7
47.7% Avg D/52.3% Avg R
Evangelical conservative Jack Kingston gets the district he's long feared (although he's running for Senate) by taking in all of Savannah and not going all the way down the coast to the much redder counties. If John Barrow ran here, it would be a tossup race, but I don't think he would when the 12th is much more to his liking.
LIKELY R
And that's it for my take on a fair map of Georgia. Democrats could theoretically win up to 8 of the 14 districts, but 6 is most likely in my opinion. What do you think? Any insight on last year's GA-12 Congressional race would also be very welcome, as would theoretical candidates for the swing and potential swing districts I drew here.
5:30 PM PT: After some pointers from Stephen Wolf in the comments, I decided to improve on this map even further, and I succeeded. This time, I numbered the districts by how the state did it:
The Atlanta Metro:
GA-01: Rep. Jack Kingston
VAP: 62.2% White, 29.4% Black
46.1%O-53.4%M
GA-02: Rep. Sanford Bishop
VAP: 42.7% White, 51.5% Black
60.4%O-39.1%M
GA-03: Rep. Lynn Westmoreland
32.2%O-66.9%M
GA-04: Rep. Hank Johnson
VAP: 32.5% White, 51.5% Black
79.0%O-20.4%M
GA-05: Rep. John Lewis
VAP: 37.0% White, 51.7% Black
75.0%O-24.4%M
GA-06: Rep. Tom Price
31.9%O-67.3%M
GA-07: Rep. Rob Woodall
VAP: 46.3% White, 23.2% Black, 19.3% Hispanic, 9.4% Asian
46.0%O-53.2%M
GA-08: Rep. Austin Scott
32.0%O-67.3%M
GA-09: Rep. Doug Collins
23.9%O-75.0%M
GA-10: OPEN
32.6%O-66.7%M
GA-11: Rep. Phil Gingrey
VAP: 57.9% White, 25.5% Black
46.4%O-52.7%M
GA-12: Rep. John Barrow and Rep. Paul Broun
VAP: 56.2% White, 35.9% Black
52.4%O-47.0%M
GA-13: Rep. David Scott
VAP: 36.8% White, 50.2% Black
64.7%O-34.8%M
GA-14: Rep. Tom Graves
26.9%O-71.9%M